The Edmonton Oilers badly needed Colin Fraser. In fact, they needed three of them. However, based on the price I don't think Oiler fans should look a gift horse in the mouth.
Colin Fraser is a very important player for the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers. Toughness, penalty killing, faceoffs (many ownzone) and mentoring young men who are stepping into their first NHL seasons.
He's more than the new Brodziak (Fraser has more grit) or the new Marty Reasoner (Fraser is younger) and if he can play the role well (3rd line center, checker, penalty killer) Colin Fraser will be a fan favorite and an extremely valuable part of the team.
•Boxcars: 70gp, 7-12-19
•Shots: 92
•Plus Minus: +6
•Corsi (Rel): -2.4 (8th among regulars)
•GF-GA ON: 25-20 (at 5x5)
•5x5/60: 2.01 (6th among regulars)
•5x4/60: 0.00 (as you would expect)
•Quality of Competition: 12th F (easiest)
•Quality of Teammates: 9th F (third line calibre)
•FO %: 48.8% in 445 faceoffs
•Cap Hit: $825,000 times 2 seasons
- What do these numbers tell us? He played in nice circumstances and he delivered pretty well offensively. The Hawks were a deep club last season, with Toews, Sharp and Madden ahead of Fraser on the C depth chart. He didn't take a lot of faceoffs (based on 70gp) and wasn't counted on like he will be in Edmonton. Still, he seems to have played well in the "you don't have to score but don't get scored on either" depth role.
- How could these numbers be better? It's a Catch-22. You'd like him to post the numbers above while playing tougher competition (as he will this season) but then again you can't fault him for not having the opportunity. I don't think there's much negative about his most recent season.
- Is this a good time for him to be taking on a larger role? Yes, absolutely. He's 25, has played over 150 NHL games and isn't being projected into a role he's unfamiliar with at the big league level. Many bloggers think Steve Tambellini has been over-praised this summer, but the Fraser deal (and other moves) are really solid (if unspectacular) transactions. Colin Fraser is young enough to be here when the times get good; that fact and his skill set being a nice match for the 3-4C role makes this a terrific pickup.
- Will he play against tough competition? Yes, I'd say so. Horcoff and Fraser will likely be the PK centermen and if the club decides to use Gagner in the same role he had last season then Fraser becomes the Marty Reasoner/Jarret Stoll in the batting lineup.
- He should do well. I'd feel much better about it if Fraser had a Pisani-type to help in that role. Maybe Ryan Jones will emerge as that player; but right now I wish the Oilers had kept Pouliot for this reason.
- Wow. Shocker. Well, there are other options out there, and maybe Steve Tambellini is looking for one of them right now. However, good veteran wingers who can help out are being gobbled up (even in this slow summer) so I'm losing hope that the team will round out the roster with more Fraser's.
- If the Oilers have another poor season, they'll get a higher draft pick. And I'm on board with that, but do believe that the team should have enought veterans to show the way. The organization will do well to have a mentor for these youngsters and perhaps Fraser will serve that role well. I think he could use some help.
- How important is Colin Fraser to the organization? Very important. Edmonton doesn't have many players who fit his description (experienced NHL player with a wide range of skills, including grit, PK, FO) and Shawn Horcoff has been getting injured with alarming regularity in recent seasons.
Prediction for 2010-11: 75gp, 8-14-22
He'll be asked to hold back the water
Colin Fraser, Nikolai Khabibulin, & Dustin Penner.
ReplyDeleteWho are the current Edmonton Oilers who have won a Stanley Cup?
(what an unlikely group... poor Ryan Whitney..)
I think what we really need to know is he actually any good at penalty killing? He's broadly being projected into a penalty killing role, but do we have any evidence to say he's good at it? There is a PK/60 as a defender #, isn't there?
ReplyDeleteNot saying he isn't, just asking.
@ geowal:
ReplyDeleteThere were 7 Hawks forwards last year to play at least a minute of PK time and play at least 20 games in the season. Of those players Colin Fraser had the worst 4v5 GA/60. He also had the easiest qualcomp of those 7 players. To be fair, I don't know how useful 'qualcomp' is in shorthanded situations.
In regards to picking up a veteran defensive minded forward, couldn't the waiver wire be a useful option? As far as I understand, Edmonton will have the first choice at any player put through waivers as the reigning (?) 30th place team.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure who might pass through, but at 1/2 price there may be several veterans who look more attractive. Does anybody know if this is accurate? If so, it's odd that it hasn't been mentioned more often amongst us obsessive blog readers.
To continue that thought, if you put Fraser's GAON/60 on the Oilers list of PKers (minimum: 1min/60, 20 gp) he'd fit in nicely behind horc pisani and moreau, but ahead of penner, potulny, POS and poo.
ReplyDeleteWas he helping the Hawks win games? Probably not, but that doesn't mean he can't help the Oilers.
@Andrew W
ReplyDeleteWe'd only get them at ½ price if they were already assigned to the AHL and brought back up on re-entry waivers. Players can be waived without being assigned to the AHL, like Souray was at the beginning of the summer. Unfortunately by the time players have been waived, sent to the minors, then brought back up, we won't be a 30th place team anymore.
You're right though, we do have first dibs on players being waived, but if we wanted to pick them up, we'd be on the hook for their full salary.
I know Fraser is the 3rd line C option right now. But it scares the bejeesus out of me.
ReplyDeleteHe was the 5th C option in Chi-town, no? He should be 4th here. If he remains the 3rd line option at TC, I think the Oilers' own expectations of him are unreasonable.
@Black Gold
ReplyDeleteI'm fairly sure you're right about having to pay the full salary of waiver wire players picked up at the end of pre-season when they're being sent to the AHL, and likely would have remembered that had I stopped to give it a minute of thought. (It must be mid-August.)
Don't some teams deliberately call players back up, though, hoping to rid themselves of the contract? While there would likely be good reasons most of the time when this happens, there is some vague, unspecified memory kicking around in my head of some useful spare parts being picked up this way in previous seasons.
Regardless, it can only be an advantage to be at the front of the line. It's always possible that a player like Steckel could come along this way after a team has decided to go in a different direction (in this scenario with Belanger).
Peter: give it a rest... we get it, you think he's spectacular and deserves credit for earning his fame.
ReplyDeleteOthers see MPS and a slew of other prospects on other teams as more talented than Eberle and yet much less recognized.
Agree to disagree and move on.
LT: reading your RE makes me believe you are skeptical that help is coming... which would mean ready or not Fraser is the 3C. It's mid-august, so I'm not ready to accept that yet... I've got at least a month to go before accepting that.
ReplyDeleteI'm in line with Spoiler... this team still needs a 3C. Fraser may grow into it, but he is no where near it now.
till horcoff: I have a light on, but suspect the window is closed on getting a veteran 3C. I am hopeful they sign a veteran W, though. :-)
ReplyDeleteLT: I hate to 2nd the pessimism on the 3C, but think you're right that management has moved on and is looking at Fraser as the answer.
ReplyDeleteNothing against him, but that was not his role last season so hopefully he will be able to step up.
Again, it could all come down to management saying we're not going to be competitive this season, let's make sure we get another high lottery pick (not just a lottery pick but a high one) and tell people that this season is all about watching the kids learn how to swim.
Of course, with the goaltending being what it is and the other holes on the blue, we're still several players from being competitive.
And whether that's a good message to send to Hemsky and Penner who'll have 1 season before UFA or not is another story...
The fact that Fraser is going to be the 3C makes giving up Brodziak and even dumber trade.
ReplyDeleteBrodziak is a much better player and does everything Fraser does but better.
Any takers on who the next player is the Oilers dump a bunch of NHL games on before trading them away for a song as they become useful? It's been happening since the Grier trade.
Brodziak is a much better player and does everything Fraser does but better.
ReplyDeleteTruth.
Brodziak led the Wild in 4v5 TOI/60 and GA/60, and he would of led the oil in 4v5 GA/60 as well.
Yeah, coppernblue did a piece on him a while ago. Statswise he looks like a good bet. Most team's depth guys and call-ups get murdered ... not so in CHI.
ReplyDeleteEverybody is being asked to step up a notch or two (Jim Vandermeer was the number 7 guy in PHX by the end of the season, and never played in the playoffs despite Tippet dressing 7 defencemen a couple of times. And this was with their best defender (arguably) Kurt Sauer out for the whole season.
If he stays healthy I think Vandermeer will be playing quite a few games in the second pairing for the Oilers this year.
And on and on. Everyone is going to be asked to step up to a level of responsibility that hasn't been asked of them before.
Let's hope they can step up.
What I started to say last night and I think it influences all these RE articles is that the match between player and coach/coaching staff isn't being correctly accounted for. The reasonable expectation being established is that most of the players will continue to run in place or (for rookies) struggle. This doesn't fit with what we know about Tom Renney.
ReplyDeleteRenney has a reasonably well earned reputation for being:
a) laid back
b) patient
c) committed to a policy of puck possession - his teams, at least Vancouver and the Rangers, radically improved in terms of shots against because they spent more time with the puck and made fewer bad turnovers
d) expecting and by and large getting his players to play with pride and commitment - particularly pushing the vets very hard. Only Penner's RE reflects a vet being ridden as hard as Renney is want to do.
e) teaching the xs and os very well
f) line matching at every opportunity
g) changing his lines endlessly and continuously
h) having once been truly great at coaching younger players
He has surrounded himself with one of the brightest, if oddest coaching staffs, in the NHL. They are obsessively systems oriented. I think you are looking at a carefully thought out plan to teach all our young players, and Frazier fits into that, how to be where they need to be and what to do when they get there.
Our veterans are going to be on the ice a lot, that is one of Renney's most consistent behaviours. This means we need more of them! But, by the same token all of the young vets (Frazier, Gagner, Cogliano - if he stays, Smid, Gilbert, Whitney, possibly Jones, Stortini) are going to (under this coaching staff) get better at the little things that make hockey players effective in the NHL. In other words the reasonable expectation, given Renney's tendencies, is that their playing time will go up as will their repsonsibilities.
Meanwhile the kids will be learning on the job from a staff dedicated to teaching. This will help reduce the amount they struggle, particularly when they don't have the puck. I think the REs presented here for rookies are based largely on the common truth that most rookies have no idea what to do without the puck, particularly when the other team has it and that reduces their TOI and their confidence.
I think this coaching staff, and hey Don Hay would have been ideal, are very well picked to help make the transition as smooth as possible. Most of these young men can reasonably be expected to do more than their REs as presented here. Certainly the young vet cluster can and should be expected to do more.
If Frazier, for example, only scores 8 goals with all that additional responsibility and time on ice we should all be disappointed.
linnaeus: Renney can coach until he's blue in the face. If you don't have the puck, you are not in a position of power.
ReplyDelete"It's been happening since the Grier trade."...
ReplyDeletedawgbone, you're right on. I too am tired of this bunch sitting in the big chairs. This team is going nowhere until they show the glory days bunch the door.
Lowetide: might be a minor quibble, but I think you forgot one David Bolland ahead of Fraser on Chicago's depth chart last season.
ReplyDeleteToews-Sharp-Bolland-Madden-Keith.
Don't some teams deliberately call players back up, though, hoping to rid themselves of the contract?
ReplyDeleteSure,Avery is the best example of this.These things are worked out beforehand,however,with the understanding that team A will bring somebody up on recall waivers after team B has agreed to claim him.
As far as plucking players off the waiver wire on the way down,I think part of Tambo's plans the last 4 weeks has been to wait patiently and see what happens-we're still a couple weeks away from teams really being pressed to make firm decisions,but we may wind up with a nice player if we stay patient-we certainly have the cap room.And I think our waiver position of 1st stays in effect through the first couple of weeks of the season,with the standings being reset after X number of games/weeks(a CBA expert can fill in the exact details,please and thanks)
Hmm, Friday the 13th, the middle of August this weekend. Nightmares at a camp by the lake. Makes me wonder what team Sam Gagner will be playing for next year.
ReplyDeleteHemsky-Gagner-Hall
ReplyDeletePenner-Brule-Paajarvi
Cogliano-Horcoff-Eberle
Jones-Fraser-Stortini
I hope they stick to something like this. Seeing Stortini or Jones on the 3rd line shouldn't happen if all goes well.
If he stays healthy I think Vandermeer will be playing quite a few games in the second pairing for the Oilers this year.
ReplyDeleteI think I just threw up in my mouth a bit. Yeck.
Ribs: I guess he can't be worst than Strudwick =)?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that he isn't, fpb. Scary stuff.
ReplyDeleteLike my argument against reddox being penciled for being a top 4 Pk'r.. if fraser wins out the 3c job because he beat out someone else also qualified for the position - Great!
ReplyDeleteIf he gets it by default because management didnt stock the shelves with anyone else that could pull it off (NHL quality/experienced player)- then no help is coming should he falter..
Vic had a great line (imo)
"Everybody is being asked to step up a notch or two"
If any one player falters (outside of the strong depth the oil have at Rookie forward) then the team gets exposed and suffers..
Tambs started off this off season well, bringing in fraser / foster to address team needs, but management just hasnt (as of yet) continued to fill out the NHL roster w quality options.. the guys to challenge for an opening night roster position (3C or 3W).. In a way, I want to see a couple more gerbers...
(At the very least, Thank Goodness they actually addressed the AHL club.. no need for both clubs to finish dead last again)
(end rant)
2 more Gerbers and a side of slaw...stat!!
ReplyDeleteIf they don't make some addiions soon, the Oilers look are going to go into camp with a weaker team than they did a year ago, I think. I doubt they'll finish 30th again, they had terrible luck with injuries and illness, fairly poor luck with shooting, and dodgy goaltending. As is almos always the case, a lot has to wrong to finish last in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteThe bright light surprises, and all on value deals (Stone, Comrie and Potulny) are gone. Their best player, and scoring chance driver from the past two seasons is gone (Visnovsky). And their second best defender when healthy, and powerplay shooting freakshow, is in limbo (Souray).
Props to the Oilers for getting rid of Staois's contract, and Moreau, without cost. I wouldn't have guessed that possible.
Everyone seems enthused with the chopping of O'Sullivan and Nilsson. And while both were overpaid, and I haven't shed a tear for them ... neither were really a problem either. Clearing them makes room for more kids, and Oiler fans like the kids more than Pierre Macguire, Michael Jackson and Peter Loubardias combined. So I can see why they were popular moves.
And this was the wrong kind of roster for an old school coach like Quinn. Though I don't think that he was half the fool that most fans do. Still, Renney should help a bit.
This is probably not going to end well, though. They don't have a hope in hell of being an outchancing team, they won't be the better side most nights. We Oiler fans are going to need a lot of guys to overachieve, plus significant help from the hockey gods.
Jim Vandermeer? And, and, and, AND Jason Strudwick!? In the starting lineup? At the same time!?
ReplyDeleteI've been out of the loop for awhile, so forgive my ignorance, but could someone please explain how this all happened and at the same time reassure me that it's not nearly as bad as it sounds.
just keep thinking......2011, top 5 pick. that'll help ease the pain.
ReplyDeleteSlipper - oh its as bad as it sounds, absolutely
ReplyDeleteVic is right, last year's club had a lot of bad luck and a lot of injuries, but they also finished thirtieth by a nice margin. I suspect that this club will be in the lottery and if Hemsky and say, Gilbert or Whitney, go down then they'll be easily in the mix for thirtieth again.
Last year's club was shitty but this year they are thinner on the blueline. I like Gilbert/Whitney but you have Smid and Foster as your 3/4 and then Strudwick, Peckham and Vandermeer. Unless they mend fences with Souray or get another top four guy that's awfully thin.
And ReKhab may not even be here to start the year which means ADD and DD or maybe Gerber to start the year and when the mad Russian gets back we all know its pretty likely he'll be on the DL pretty quickly.
There will be some nights where we ooh and ahh over the kids and I'm sure Penner and Hemsky will be fun to watch in the beginning of their probable swansongs with the Oilers but I think overall its going to be a pretty poor year. As to be expected.
lowetide,
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree.
However, the thing is getting the puck (and for that matter keeping it) isn't an entirely innate talent. Strength, speed, reflexes, and anticipation matter a lot. However, it is also very much about positioning, effort, commitment, and to some extent trust in your teammates. You can improve most players positioning with coaching. Effort is about motivation and that is a key aspect of coaching. Commitment is a bit trickier to teach but you can have some impact through leading by example (both the coaching staff and your veterans). Trusting your teammates, well that comes down to how the season plays out, the personalities, etc. However, a good coach can create a positive environment.
Can any coach turn a rookie into a puck pursuing demon and back checking machine? No, of course not. They can improve everybody's positioning. Where they can (and in some cases have) worked magic is in teaching players how to keep the puck once they've gotten it. The Oilers have some guys who are masters at not giving the puck back (Hemsky, Penner, more and more Gagner, and possibly Whitney) to serve as examples.
I understand that you are trying to be realistic about the rookies but to the extent coaching ever matters (and statistically it isn't as important as one might think) it matters most with younger players. Thus the coaching effect, which would normally not matter much, will be of greater importance the next few years with the Oilers. I think Renney was a great choice and much of the rest of the staff are pretty good picks for the sort of team we are looking at having on the ice over the next few seasons (young, talented, and inexperienced).
I am merely trying to point out that you are pretty much assuming all of our rookies will under perform their NHLE, our young vets will run in place, and our established players will miss large parts of the season. That may all turn out to be true but as a reasonable expectation you would predict a regression to the mean in terms of injuries (far fewer lost days). Statistically, some of our young vets should take that nexy big step (Sam Gagner seeming like the most obvious). Based on the distribution of real points scored versus NHLE predictions one or more of our rookies should at least match their NHLE and one of them should actually exceed their NHLE.
Another example of the negative bias you seem to be employing comes from your RE on Dustin Penner. (By the way I do love reading these posts. I just think that this year you've let some serious bias slip in and it is skewing them all to the dark side.) Like you, I think Penner is an emerging star. However, the year Frank Mahovlich really put it together a strange thing happened. The two guys he played with, Red Kelly and Bob Nevin, both had pretty good years (and we know Penner makes whomever he plays with better).
You show Hemsky hurt, a lot, Gagner still looking for that breakout year, and Horcoff continuing to struggle to re-establish himself as an offensive player. So who is going to play Kelly and Nevin's parts in the Penner breakout?
Re: Fraser and worries about depth.
ReplyDeleteHere's a prediction of what the Oilers lineup will look like after the injuries hit:
Let's remove Horcoff, Whitney, Stortini, and Khabi (bad injuries, but pretty average to be missing a top 6 forward, a top 4 D, and a couple depth guys. And missing our G is going to be the norm, which is why we have 4.) We'll be lucky to have that healthty a lineup midseason, I think.
Hall-Gagner-Hemsky
Penner-Brule-Eberle
MPS-Fraser-Cogliano
JFJ-Omark-Jones
Smac/Giroux
Gilbert-Smid
Souray-Foster
Vandemermeer-Strudwick
Peckham
(That bottom 5D are dirt slow.)
Gerber
Dubnyk
God help us.
You do all realize the idea we are going to be awful is self fufilling.
ReplyDeleteFirst, if it creeps into the management suite they won't go on filling in spaces on the roster, and a few vets would make a heck of a difference. Second, good free agents won't want to come here, versus if we sell them on the excitement of a fresh start with a wealth of young talent, ala colorado. Third the players might well inhale the miasma that the fan base is emitting and come down with a bad case of the blues.
This isn't a lottery team as it stands and it could be a playoff contender with a bit of tweaking. Assuming Gilbert or Whitney or Penner or Hemsky are going to get injured seems seriously defeatist and for three of those guys pretty unrealistic. Assuming all our rookies will under perform their NHLE all at once flies in the face of the math.
I don't quite get while you are also so deep in the spin cycle that you are ignoring all the stats and smart moves and just assuming we are going to be crap. Can someone explain it to me?
linnaeus: Well let's give it a try. Here are the players I've covered so far with my number first and then the Hockey News number.
ReplyDeleteDustin Penner
LT: 70 HN: 55
Ales Hemsky
LT: 66 HN: 70
Sam Gagner
LT: 53 HN: 58
Shawn Horcoff
LT: 42 HN: 42
Taylor Hall
LT: 40 HN: 53
Gilbert Brule
LT: 40 HN: 35
Magnus Pääjärvi
LT: 30 HN: 32
Andrew Cogliano
LT: 30 HN: 47
Jordan Eberle
LT: 29 HN: 59
Colin Fraser
LT: 22 HN: 15
So, I've nicked Eberle and Hall way more than HN, and they're smoking the drapes over Penner and Cogliano.
I'll live with my predictions. I've seen Jason Strudwick pass the puck.
And Tambellini HAS made some smart moves, said it in the orginal post. But he seems to have teed off with a fairway wood and plans to lay up on his second shot.
ReplyDeleteI'm in favor of another lottery draft, but don't see any reason we can't be acquiring more good players while we suck. If we're too close to the playoffs, they can send the Chorney-Strudwick pairing out to kill penalties again.
linneaus:
ReplyDeleteAre you implying that Lowetide is not merely making forecasts, but altering the future with his opinion? I'm not criticizing, just looking for clarification.
I like where you're going with this, linneaus. Carry on.
re: 30th place.
ReplyDeleteLast season Strudwick played the second most total minutes out of all of our D. Thats what our defensive depth was like last season.
To be fair, I suppose you could add Vishnovski's and Whitney minutes together, you could bump Strudwick to third most total minutes. (He had more minutes than the Staios/Johnson combination)
I suspect after injuries start adding up, we'll likely see Strudwick and/or Vandermeer playing too many minutes. It's worrisome.
Vic,
ReplyDeleteI am actually suggesting lowetide is altering the future with his predictions. I am a) suggesting he has been drinking some black, black koolaid and for example ending up with our three prized rookies scoring 31 points less than their NHLEs for example and b) that the concept that we are again a lottery team, or maybe in lowetide's case that we should be, is gaining very wide spread acceptance as ST seems to have gone into hibernation.
Hard as it is for any of us to believe, players, management, and agents are not at all immune to getting caught up in group think. The relentless negativity building amongst the more informed/knowledgable part of the fan base, of which our host is an acknowledged and even beloved leader can actually have an effect on the future. It helps shape the culture of hockey in this city. That culture effects the players, management, etc.
As my preacher great-grandfather was fond of saying, "the bigger the congregation the wiser the preacher needs to be." So here we have our preacher saying that we are going to be even worse than Hockey News says, significantly worse by the way, that all our rookies are all under performers (or Gabe's numbers are meaningless), etc. I am just asking, is that wise? Is it accurate?
It is being reinforced by people assuming we will have catastrophic injuries, now some of the likely suspects certainly have histories that make that plausible, but names of workhorse players keep getting thrown in the mix and no one says boo. Do you all really believe all our rookies are going to crack under pressure? Do none of you think Gagner might have a break out season?
I spend part of my worklife doing, as I have said before, predictioneering. You rapidly learn to tell when a group is going off the tracks. First, the opinion makers develop an unrecognized bias and then the followers develop a bad case of confirmation bias slanted towards supporting that position. I think we are seeing that here.
I am just trying to get you all to think for a moment about an alternative outcome. One in which our coaches can coach, our rookies are outperformers, our injuries normalize, and a couple of young vets take the next step to stardom. In that world ST acts to fill the remaining holes with veterans. Our veterans turn into leaders and begin to pass on ideas to the rookies like, "even in hard times you owe your teammates 100% effort, every night." In that world one of our young vets earns the C and wears it with pride and dignity. Most importantly a 10 letter, two word meme infects every player's brain. Stanley Cup.
You don't get there from a culture of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling, but wait until next year!"
LT,
ReplyDeleteLinnaeus is claiming that you are saying the rooks will under-perform their NHLE.
My understanding is that you are NOT doing so, but instead have adjusted their NHLE to reflect the fact the rooks are going to have less TOI at EVs and PP than they are used to seeing. That and the fact we don't have a strong puck-acquiring blue line, nor enough established veterans riding shot gun. NHLE cannot reflect those things. Hence, Robert T. Schremp.
All of which I agree with, but am I getting this wrong?
Linnaeus...
ReplyDeleteIn that world ST acts to fill the remaining holes with veterans.
So far this has only occurred in an alternate reality. It certainly hasn't occurred in this one.
And yet you want reasonable expectations based on it for-certain happening, when it hasn't for four years?
Now that's one hell of an assumption. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I certainly wouldn't base an analyses as if it already has.
spOILer: No, you've got it right. Hall and MPS got the powerplay time and Eberle played more actual minutes (although fewer games than Hall).
ReplyDeleteBut overall, yes. Desjardins NHLE and then docked for their assumed lot in life.
I am just trying to get you all to think for a moment about an alternative outcome. One in which our coaches can coach, our rookies are outperformers, our injuries normalize, and a couple of young vets take the next step to stardom. In that world ST acts to fill the remaining holes with veterans. Our veterans turn into leaders and begin to pass on ideas to the rookies like, "even in hard times you owe your teammates 100% effort, every night." In that world one of our young vets earns the C and wears it with pride and dignity. Most importantly a 10 letter, two word meme infects every player's brain. Stanley Cup.
ReplyDeleteI would consider that alternate outcome exceeding expectations. It is entirely possible that everything breaks right and your version is how the season unfolds. There is another version where reKhab is unable to play due to back/jail. DD and JDD take a Steve Mason step back instead of forward. And Gerber plays like a 35 year old who broke his back last season. In this version the injuries pile up, Renney doesn't have the horses to deal with it and Strudwick ends up playing 1200+ minutes again.
Horcoff keeps regressing due to age, over use and little help down the middle. It's also entirely possible one of our young guns gets hurt in a bad way, ruins their season and their development time takes a big hit. I could go on, but you probably see where I'm going with this.
In that case everything that can go wrong does, in your case, everything goes right. I think LT's case is the middle ground.
I would love it if you were right, though. And its entirely possible you will be. And if you are, my expectations will definitely be exceeded.
I can see why you would nick Eberle's NHLE - he's not going to be The Man like he was in Regina. But was MPS really the top dog in Timra? If he was already getting 2nd or 3rd line minutes, there's not a whole lot to nick there. (Beyond the part where we're terrible...)
ReplyDeleteMPS played 17:25 per game in the SEL.
ReplyDeleteI would echo Black Gold's comments here. If it all breaks right and all the rooks exceed expecations we could all be pleasantly surprised.
ReplyDeleteLook at Colorado last season - who thought that would happen?
And as LT says, ST has made some good moves (and I admit to being a very harsh critic).
But come on, the bottom 3 d-men right now don't inspire hope. Nor does the goaltending (I like DD more than anyone but he's not the second coming of Roy). And 3C is still a big question mark as is the PK. At some point a coach has to have the tools and no one can look at the current lineup and say this is a finished product.
If they don't finish in the bottom 3 this season they'll exceed my expectations. And if they're competitive, even better - it might give Hemsky and Penner a reason to re-sign.
But this is a high risk lineup right now - not just for this season but for the future and I would have liked them to address a few more holes.
Kool-Aiders: "Oilers make playoffs, rookies in a 1-2-3 race for the Calder"
ReplyDeleteDoom and Gloomers: "Injuries, few solid vets, overwhelmed youngsters = lottery pick"
I can deal with either one of those two extremes schools of thought. In fact, I'm having a hard time deciding which one I would prefer.
It's a win-win really.
I must be completely misunderstanding Gabe's process. My understanding is that he looks at populations of players, how they performed in league A and how they performed in League B. This then gives him a handy factor to apply to the performance of a specific performer in a lower league and predict that player's performance in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteIf every player had to be adjusted individually then you wouldn't see a scatterogram like you get when you compare NHLE predictions to reality. It is a very tight match with a very high correlation as I remember it. You get the odd outlier like Ovechkin or Schremp but most come out the way their NHLE predicts.
Because it is based on the performance of populations those populations will have experienced every combination of injury, ice time, team mates, and role hockey has to offer. It is all baked in. So in dinging these players you are saying either they are worse than the average population of players from their leagues or the Oilers problems are uniquely bad, so bad Gabe's process couldn't bake them in. Yet the things you talk about are pretty ubiquitous amongst NHL rookies.
Look at Colorado last season - who thought that would happen?
ReplyDeleteAnderson and Budaj both posted .917SV% last year.
Anderson was over .925 for a good chunk of the year then came to earth a bit.
(note: smarter Oilblogospherians were pimping Anderson hard last summer. All facepalmed at the same time when learning of Khabby's $$$ and duration)
Budaj's previous NHL high water mark was .905 in 06/07.
The Av's were outshot, outcorsi'd, and outfenwicked by almost everyone on rode hot goaltending and gaudy percentages like it was their job.
15 of the 21 players who played more than 40 games on the Av's had a PDO over 1000.
The Av's lead the league in wins when being outshot with 29.
They were outshot in 55 games and went 27-18-8.
I don't think the Oilers have that kind of goaltending. The only guy who possibly has that over a big stretch like a full season may be DD, but I wouldn't bet any of my money on it.
MPS played 17:25 per game in the SEL.
ReplyDeleteWow, I haven't been paying close enough attention. Thanks LT.
WG: That's like the ''Let's hire vets like Phoenix train''. We don't have a goalie to back those plans up.
ReplyDeleteAt least for now. We're pretty much rolling the dices.
Linnaeus,
ReplyDeleteTo put it simply, to the best of my understanding... the NHLE number for anyone of those three may be a good indicator if it were just one of the three attempting to make the show...
Where is the room for all three? There are only so many soft minutes and PP time to go around.. look at the top six and find room for all three then talk about them all being put in a position to succeed (like they each where when on their last team - all top six or top dawg minutes)
-----
by the by, I think Eberle's skill set will lead to him getting more PP time (and PP points) than MPS...
Toews' Rookie QC (5th on team F)
ReplyDeleteKane's Rookie QC (7th on team F)
Benn's Rookie QC (5th on team F)
Tavares' Rookie QC (5th on team F)
Doughty's Rookie QC (3rd on team D)
Backstrom's Rookie QC (6th on team F)
Only to point out that, even if no rookies will play top line matchings right away, some can play normal competition and do pretty well. Not all rookies will sink like a bowling ball in the sea if they get some time with playing the big boys.
I am not a relentlessly positive person.
ReplyDeleteLast year at this time I was projecting the Oilers would go with the two kids in net and give up 270 goals and said so here. Then they signed Khabibulin but I didn't (along with many people) think he would last. I did, I'll concede, think we'd be fun to watch because I thought we'd score a lot of goals, just not enough to climb out of the hole our defence was going to dig.
The first twenty or so games pretty much went like I'd projected. We were high risk, high reward but bad luck and stupidity plagued us. Then the illness and injuries began to pile on and we never got back to normal.
So rose coloured glasses aren't my thing.
Math, and perhaps more importantly logic, says that we should be closer to the league average in injuries/illness this year than we were last year. That will help both offensive production, as we are discussing here, and defensive performance. I agree with lowetide that probably all three rookies will see ice time. However, I say that NHLEs do an adequate job of taking into account situation, even three rookies at once. So one will out perform, one will hit the number and one will under perform but collectively they will hit their group NHLE. I also think that at least one of the young vets will finally breakthrough to be an impact player (most likely Gagner) but that is just because we have a number of them coming up on the age/games played when the lightbulb goes on. All of this is just playing the odds. I am also betting on long term trends in Renney's coaching career. His teams cut down on scoring chances and shots allowed in his first season and the change is dramatic. He also blenderizes lines almost to the point where it is pointless to think about lines in the conventional sense at all. His 14F gets ten minutes a game.
For all these reasons I am suggesting lowetide is on pace to underestimate the mid point of possible perfomance by this team by about 24 goals. I get him heading towards the Oilers scoring 215 goals this year. With our defence as it stands and that offense we'd be bottom three in the league in points.
I think this is a gifted offensive team and we should be expecting about 239 goals. Less isn't reasonable, it is dismal. That is the difference between the 19th best and the 6th best offense in the NHL. It is also about a 10 point difference in the standings at the end of the year and pulls the Oilers up out of the lottery.
If lowetide is right no additional veterans can do anything but drag us up a few places and cost us a shot at another great player in the draft lottery. If I am right then a couple of veterans 3C, 3R or 3/4 D and we are a playoff contender, not a lock but not an absurd long shot either.
I'd say the Oilers max upside is lowetide is right about Penner and Hemsky with the exception being Hemsky stays healty. Gagner breaks out. Cogliano finds a role and fills it. Hall is Toews, Eberle is Kane and MPS proves he can backcheck. We are Chicago two years into the rebuild not year one.
lowetide is presenting the bottom end of the likely outcomes.
I am the one in the middle.
linnaeus: We're going to have to agree to disagree. I think this Oilers team scoring 239 goals would be reason for dancing and singing and general merry-making. Well beyond reasonable expectation.
ReplyDelete"Colin Fraser is a very important player for the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers."
ReplyDeleteWho's the projected No. 1 pick in 2012?
jaf
ReplyDeleteInspired by the posts photo, I decided to check out Frasers mad fighting skills online. I hope Smac can teach him a few things...
ReplyDeleteLike maybe...don't fight.
I like his gusto, though.
Just wanted to shout out to Dawgbone and Black Gold for bringing up Brodz in the Fraser discussion..
ReplyDeleteThere is no way to deny (imo) that brodz would be a better option at 3c,.. it seemed, at that time, like poo was going to get the push for the job but now that he has been squeezed out it leaves me scratching my head..
whats the plan?! anyways, I've been too critical these last few days.. just have been stewing over brodz No.1 ranked 5v4 # on the Wild...
Linnaeus,
ReplyDeleteIf 239 goals is your mid-point, and 214 your low, then what in gord's name is your high point? 264 goals?
I have great difficulty believing that this team has an alternate universe where 264 goals exists.
@ fpb I like your thoughts of not all rooks sinking facing the big boys.
ReplyDeleteI really think Hall will do just fine with the bigs he has all the tools like size speed and skill not unlike MPS.
Mark my words those two will be stars in the NHL for years to come.
Spoiler,
ReplyDeleteNow understand this is a blue sky projection, an absolute upper number. Then look at the individual players and ask yourself is it possible for each guy to do this? Not likely, just vaguely possible.
Penner 35
Hemsky 25
Gagner 25
Hall 25
Brule 22
Horcoff 20
Eberle 20
MPS 15
Comrie 15
Jones 14
Frazier 8
Stortini 6
Reddox 5
JFJ 4
Foster 8
Gilbert 8
Whitney 6
all other d 3
264 total goals
Those numbers are pretty reasonable, assuming Edm gets 20 minutes of PP time per game. Teams with 7 20 goal scorers are pretty rare. This reminds me of 2006-07... Lots of offensive possibilities, but nobody on the backend to get them damn puck. If we still had Vis.....
ReplyDeletelinnaeus,
ReplyDeleteRe 264 Goals For
Those numbers are not reasonable. Injuries etc are always going to take a bite out of people's numbers. Comrie isn't even on the team. Jones isn't going to get 14.
Last year: Oilers 214 GF 284 GA
Wash 318 GF;
Vcr 272 GF;
Chi 271;
SJ 264;
Pit 257.
The Oilers are not going to be scoring with the best teams. They are not going to increase their production by 50 goals (or 23%) from last year.
If you are high on the team, maybe you add 5% more goals, and get 224 GF. If you reduce the GA by a similar amount (although I see little reason to) you get 270 GA (still would be worst in the league last year).
This isn't going to be a good team (yet).
Toews' Rookie QC (5th on team F)
ReplyDeleteKane's Rookie QC (7th on team F)
Benn's Rookie QC (5th on team F)
Tavares' Rookie QC (5th on team F)
Doughty's Rookie QC (3rd on team D)
Backstrom's Rookie QC (6th on team F)
Only one of the players made the playoffs in their rookie year.
So yeah, you can definitely play these guys in that role, but it doesn't necessarily translate into success when you do it at first.