The first of the Hockey Annuals hit the streets in the last week or so, with the Hockey News (once the bible of the sport) predicting Edmonton's Oilers repeating their basement finish of a year ago.A nice summary is here.
The focus of the HN piece seems to be the penalty-kill, and lord knows help is badly needed (veteran help at that).
Derek Zona has been lapping the field this summer and offers a nice item on a very important part of the Oiler powerplay this morning.
The bottom line is that the Oilers stunk every way they could a year ago. Injuries, ineffective play, weird moments in goal (starting in game 1) and some unusual roster decisions all contributed to the chaos.
A year ago, Edmonton was poor at everything:
- EV GF/GA: 156-212 (-56)
- PP GF/GA: 52-67 (-15)
- PK GF/GA: 6-5 (+1)
The penalty kill has some people who should be able to help (Horcoff, Fraser) and the PP should be better with Hemsky healthy for more than 22 games. However, as the summer winds down and the organization continues to watch free agents (slowly) slide off the table we must assume that the goal is a lottery pick.
That's the news, Hockey News. We're in a full rebuild and if there are holes on the roster we're just not going to worry about it right now. The lottery awaits, and next year the tsn special will be two hours and the draft party will be even bigger. We're at a point where we can safely talk about dealing Hemsky or Penner at the deadline.
We're at a point where we can safely talk about dealing Hemsky or Penner at the deadline.
ReplyDelete:(
No Sh!t Sherlock. Way to clue in. #1, ha ha ha
ReplyDeleteDid they say how many points the mighty Oil might get next year? How many points are you predicting next year? This post reads with a sad under-tone. I predict they will end with 5 more points than you do (I feel a little optimistic this AM for some reason)
ReplyDeleteThe Hockey News article proves that they're not the well researched bible that they used to be. (I canceled my subscription a while ago since it seems like the articles and anything the ridiculous Adam Proteau writes are aimed at 14 year olds.) In its slam of the oilers it mentions what they need from Potulny. Well as everyone knows, Potulny hasn't been part of the plan for some time now. So either THN wrote the article several months ago before the Potulny departure or other significant acquisitions. Or it was written recently and they did very little research on the current state of the franchise. Either way is kind of sad. I'm not saying the Oilers won't finish dead last again. But I certainly won't base that judgement on anything the Hockey News says.
ReplyDeleteThe writing was on the wall weeks ago but I think hope and optimism clouded everyone's vision. At least we will get a good look at what the Oklahoma team looks like because we will be seeing a lot of it this year. This season still hold the promise of watching our good rookie crop develop. For that I am excited.
ReplyDeleteJoe Sakic waisted some of his youth playing for a bum team and so should Hemsky. Look at the team the Oilers will have in 3 to 4 years.
ReplyDeleteAdam Larsson in Oilers silks...that's a nice mental image.
ReplyDelete@ logical thinking:
ReplyDeleteJoe Sakic is hands down one of the best players I've ever seen. Hemsky is on the other hand the eternal "just wait until next year" player, who always finds a way not to join the elite.
Sakic also was one of the reasons tha Nords/Avs eventually became a cup winner. Hemsky on the other hand will be lucky if he plays on a cup winner. There is a difference.
Well the Hockey News is boring so nobody should care about them.
ReplyDeleteOilers in the lottery is fine by me. Lowe will have to appease angry ticket holders by falling on a sword. And Katz can blame the old barn for losing millions on the Oilers and wrest hundreds of millions from the rubes of Edmonton.
Larssen sounds cool but then it might be tough to pass up that Couterieuries guy in Quebec.
ReplyDeleteThen I remember that they don't know how to play hockey in Quebec anymore so I say go with Nugent Hopkins.
hunter1909
ReplyDeleteI should of not mentioned Hemsky and Sakic in the same sentence.
morning mental fog
If they stay reasonably helathy this year, I think playoffs are more likely than last again.
ReplyDeleteAlthough neither is a very good bet.
Maybe I'm too optimistic but I really don't see this team finishing dead last or even in a lottery spot. Sure their pk needs to be better, defense and goal aren't super great but seriously, this team is not that bad. They made some nice off-season moves. Yes I would like more but let's take our time.
ReplyDeleteAnd I don't care if they trade Penner but no more mentioning Hemsky please. He's not going anywhere at this deadline, book it. IF he does not sign the extension next summer, then trade his ass. That should be the plan. I do not want a Hemsky-less Oilers team. :(
Lottery pick or playoffs, Oilers have young rookie players who appear on a level unseen in Edmonton since the glory days. Next season doesn't even phase me, because I know Hall and the boys need a rookie season to develop.
ReplyDeletePersonally i'd prefer to keep Hemsky and Penner because there's nothing worse than a team of youngsters, without a few old dogs to show them the ropes.
There are Leaf fans out there right now openly green with envy at the Oilers prospects. That is, Leaf fans who don't swallow Burke's endless stream of hockey unconsciousness.
These low expectations (no doubt hoping to be blown away) are really starting to annoy me. We might not have a world-beating defence, but this is an offensive league and we have 3 new young thoroughbreds up front complementing a unit that already has a decent amount of talent. With what they'll have 1-14 it sure looks to me like they'll find a way to win the special teams battle. Maybe this will even be the year we finally play our top guys on the PK and give them the minutes they need.
ReplyDeleteDidn't like reading your conclusion LT, but I have to agree. This season (right now) has all the appearance of giving the kids a chance to learn through their mistakes.
ReplyDeleteWith the goalie situation being what it is, a healthy Khabi at best means 11th-13th in the west. At the very least we may be a little more fun to watch because of the kids, but their will be growing pains and issues (PK, tough minutes center, top 4 D).
If Penner and/or Hemsky are gone at the trade deadline, you have to think they asked to be trade or told the Oilers there's no way they are re-signing.
Item #1 - Our top 6 defensemen include any three of Vandermeer, Strudwick, Chorney, Foster or Peckham.
ReplyDeleteItem #2 - Our depth at center is Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano and Fraser.
Item #3 - Our top 9 will most likely include 2 or 3 players who have never skated a shift in the NHL.
Item #4 - Our goaltending depth chart is Gulag, JDDD, and Gerber.
I defy anyone to call that a play off team in a conference with Vancouver, Chicago, San-Jose, LA and Detroit all pencilled in to the playoff bracket.
We had 62 points last year. At a minimum we will have to find another 15 wins and some more Bettman bonus points. Can anyone realistically see that happening?
Word on the street was that v3.0 was talking to the Neidermyers and Maddens of the world, but they didn't want to come to a rebuild.
ReplyDeleteCan't blame them.
That being said, as it gets closer to training camp (like 1-2 weeks away from lacing them up), some of the FAs will stare at the hard reality of either playing in Edmonton or Siberia (insert frozen tundra joke and Siberia>Edmonton joke here), and one will pick Edmonton.
I have some faint hope of v3.0 adding one more vet, maybe from a tryout contract.
Pisani would look nice at 3RW and I hear he doesn't mind playing in Edmonton for a rebuilding team.
if he doesn't sign a contract elsewhere, i wonder if the Oilers will envite Pisani to training camp as an unsigned player?
ReplyDeletePisani wtf. The guy hasn't played so many as 70 games since, when?
ReplyDeleteI don't mind the Oilers ending up in the lottery, but no more washed up, sentimental pick, banged up players please.
Adding Pisani would just be wasting a spot for long term experiments.
ReplyDelete(He just blew like anyone else last year)
fpb: If you're goal is to lose and get another top lottery pick, then you're right about Pisani.
ReplyDeleteAnd even if they do resign, they'll still lose a lot this season. They'll give up a couple fewer PP goals against, but the difference might be a game or two, not 10 or 15.
Still, what is the right number of kids to throw in the deep end? We know Hall will be here, but how many more of MPS, Eberle, Omark? And on the blue, Peckham? Five is a lot for a team that has no reliable goalie and two very important players who'll fast forward a rebuild in 2011/2012 & beyond after we get another high lottery pick.
Partially due to a lack of choice and partially to a general lack of faith in the defensive abilities of the roster, I'm already on board for another dive for five. In the long run, we're going to need an elite defender, and maybe an elite centre, too.
ReplyDelete"Surrender for a Defender", anybody? (I've never been any good at coming up with pithy slogans...)
Agree with Frelbo.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers might very well be the worst team in the Western Conference. I don't think they are (*cough*flames*wild*stars*bluejackets*cough*), but they're probably close.
That said, The Hockey News is WAY too premature with this article. For example, Kovalchuk has not even signed on with a team yet. If he signed with...say the New York Islanders, do you think they'd still pick them to finish 2nd last in the East?
The Hockey News' predictions should be taken with a grain of salt the same size as an HFBoards predictions are taken at.
Pisani should not be an option. I don't blame him, colitis is a real bastard, but his game isn't there anymore. We don't need to offer him any more charity. He got paid 10 million for his 2006 magic.
ReplyDeleteIt seems the Oilers had the choice of filling 3-4 gaps or none of them. The latter is better than half addressing the problem and having a mediocre (non lottery) team.
This team can hope for development from the kids, Sam Gagner to become a #1C (legitimately, not by default) and a lottery pick. I still have my doubts this is a lottery team but our D and goaltending just might be porous enough to beat Florida to Adam Larsson. A deadline day that moves Souray and Penner/Hemsky would also go a long way as well. But the return on Penner/Hemsky must be quality.
Oilerdago: LOL? Did you watch the Oil play last year? Pisani did jackshit. He was played against the tough and did nothing ressembling ''handling'' them. He just drowned with the rest of the team.
ReplyDeleteRob Schremp tweets..
ReplyDeleteI need a song 4 when I come out 4 my shootouts & want 2 see if you can help me pick one! Any Suggestions?
Hehe..what a goof.
fpb: I don't think we're on opposite sides here. All I said was that if they resigned him, it might mean a couple of more kills over the course of a season.
ReplyDeleteThose couple of kills might make enough for a couple of wins (1 or 2). Not 10-15, but 1 or 2.
If you look at the math and the games (and yeah, I watched more than it was worth last year), he's still an adequate forward on the PK when healthy. And right now, we don't have enough people who've done this on the roster.
That said, not enough to make a difference.
And to my larger point, I think the re-build route for this roster is correct and long overdue. Klowe should have done this several years ago. Choosing to do it now, puts re-signing Hemsky and Penner at risk next year unless they buy into the rebuild and are on the train that in 3 years we're going to be good.
Otherwise, you better be ready to trade them at the deadline next March in order to get something good back.
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ReplyDeleteSmarmy, if Larsson takes a another step forward, in the SEL no less, then at 6'2-3" and 200+lbs, with his combination of an all around hockey sense, physical play (picks his spots, uses his body if he needs to but not a pushing player by any means) and passing/skating skills, I don't see any other choice.
ReplyDeleteElite level defencemen don't grow on trees, and if this guy is the real deal (who knows with prospects especially this young) then you have to grab him. Could possibly step into the NHL after his draft, and contribute to winning within 2 seasons.
I keep dreaming of our very own Lidstrom for the next 18 seasons. A Lidstrom with more size that will lay you out if the opportunity presents itself =).
Projecting prospects is always fun. Haven't been this excited by a prospect since...well Hedman haha, but these two are the prospects I've been most excited by ever. I'm not counting freaks like Crosby, when everyone and their grandmothers knew something special was brewing.
PK GF/GA: 6-5 (+1).
ReplyDeleteI don't get this. Are you saying we scored 6 shorthanded goals and gave up five?
Oilerdago: Agreed on that. Tough I think we'd better learn some kids how to PK. Will probably have a bigger failure rate, but should pay off in the long run.
ReplyDelete"Rob Schremp tweets..
ReplyDeleteI need a song 4 when I come out 4 my shootouts & want 2 see if you can help me pick one! Any Suggestions?
Hehe..what a goof."
How about the theme from Migthy Mouse?
There's just simply no way this team is as bad as last year's iteration. The man games lost last year were incredible and I would suggest a deviation from what we can reasonably expect this year.
ReplyDeleteIt's especially relevant to keep in mind, as you've noted LT, the importance of the players lost to injury. Hemsky's loss and Horcoff's ineffectiveness due to injury potentially account for the team's performance in part.
Aside from that, the defensive corps for the upcoming season doesn't currently project to having Chorney or Strudwick as full-time players. Simply put, I think that the defense as it currently stands is much closer to league average than last year's version.
In any case, I recognize that next year's team will be bad, but I think it's unreasonable to expect them to be the worst team in the league.
Top 10 at the draft? Certainly. Top 5? Maybe. Top 3? Silliness. First overall? The Hockey News.
I'm surprised to see the team isn't being given more latitude for just how badly they were decimated by injuries last year. IF the team stays healthy and IF some of the principles elevate their game, I think they have a shot at being a bubble team next year. Was having a play with some line combos last night and they certainly look a helluva lot more formidable up front. Foster, Whitney and Khabibulin are the X-Factors for me. If those guys exceed expectations, we'll have at least a semblance of a back-line.
ReplyDeleteJust for shits n giggles, here's my projected lines
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky (The Triple H line!). 1 sniper. 1 playmaker and some defensive awareness down the middle. Could be a recipe for success.
Penner-Gagner-Brule/Jones
Paajarvi/Giroux/Omark-Brule/Cogliano-Eberle (Great talent on this soft minutes line. The 3rd line LW battle in Training Camp should be a beaut)
Jacques/Fraser/Stortini (JF & Zach need to hit everything that moves for this energy line to pay dividends)
BTW, the depth chart on the Oilers site is good for a laugh. Hall and Eberle on the 4th line with Stortini on the 3rd line and Jacques on the 2nd. Yeah, that's going to happen.
Based on the jack shit offers Burke was getting for one year of Kaberle its better to trade 27 or 83 before next summer if they are cold to signing an extension.
ReplyDeleteI think 27 is much more likely to re-sign than 83.
Wg: Idk, every time (Like it's been what 5 times now?) Kaberle has been offered to the highest bidder Burke spit on every offer he saw.
ReplyDeleteHe's a 40 point dman with not such a high defensive upside, what is he hoping for?
Lee and Jon_K:
ReplyDeleteI think that, while most people don't project the Oilers to have as many injuries as last season, many still would guess the Oilers will have more than the average number of injuries because the "injury prone" players haven't necessarily left.
Khabibulin, Souray, Hemsky, Brule, Foster, and Smid are all guys that you can understand why people might worry. Add Horcoff and Whitney if you feel like it.
It's probably true that most teams have some of these guys, but in EDM's case you're looking at your top G, 3 or 4 of your top 5 D, and arguably two of your 3-4 best forwards.
It's unlikely that all will be hurt, and some would be hurt whether they are "injury prone" or not, but I'm not sure it's unreasonable to think EDM projects (to the extent you can "project" injuries) to lose more man games to injuries than some/most other teams might.
speeds: I completely agree. I merely think it's unlikely that we lose the contributions of Hemsky, Souray, and Khabibulin all for 50+ games, all at the same time.
ReplyDeleteWe're certainly an injury-prone team, but I think last year was still an aberration even within that context.
Looking back at some of the boxcars from last season, it is surprising that they let O'Sullivan play out the string. An epically bad season of Lupulian proportions.
Per Shaugger's twitter:
ReplyDeletePISANI TO HAWKS!
Hell yeah!!!
1-yr, 1-way for ol' Fernando (again, from Rishaug's twits).
ReplyDeleteIn case my elation wasn't obvious, just want to say that I am incredibly happy he gets a 2nd shot at Stanley.
nowhere to go but up! can we get 16th somehow?
ReplyDeleteactually, can't see us in the 15th, unless bulin goes down, which is likely. gerber might have half a year in him?
truth is, i had 8th place hopes for this team, at least, at the start of last year.
ged rid of moreau and o-sullivan and add hall, eberle, magnus, a healthy hemsky and emerging penner? maybe.
should be nerve-rackingly something...
Uni
ReplyDeleteLarsson would be cool but I doubt the Oilers would get another first overall. I'd be happy with one of the centers.
We haven't addressed certain obvious needs and though I guess we still can the fact we haven't of yet means they're gonna try and play it both ways they be just as happy with lottery as they will with the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteAnd good for 34, too, btw
LT: BTW, I was ultra-tempted to chime in when you quoted The Last Resort in your Brian Burke post over at ON but I still don't respect some of your cohorts over there and someone has to have principles;)
ReplyDeletegood for Fernando, it'll be good to see him prove the naysayers wrong.
ReplyDeleteBest of luck to Fernando. He was always one of my favourites.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Pisani. Always one of my favorite Oilers, that 06 run was bloody magic--the kind of thing I'll never forget.
ReplyDeleteHmmm, we could have maybe used a guy like Pisani...
ReplyDeleteI will be interested to hear the terms. If its cheap, it was probably a risk worth taking.
1 year, 500k.
ReplyDeleteOh sure the day I bash Pisani he goes and signs with the Stanley Cup champ. I stand by him not being a good fit here and his injuries are a concern. But best of luck Fernando. You will always be a fav. His game 5 goal got me tickets to Brazil vs Aus in World Cup 2k6 and game 6 - which may be my fav hockey moment along with 2002 gold medal. Go win yourself a cup Fernando.
ReplyDeleteCan't wait for LT's Sail On post for Fernando.
ReplyDeleteI don't begrudge him a penny of that last $10 million.
500K for 34.
ReplyDeleteEven if he only plays 50 games he can out perform that contract.
Good signing by Bowman.
If 34 plays north of 70 games its a great signing by Bowman.
Hope Fernie gets a ring.
Also,
While Kaberle isn't great defensively he still is a top pairing offensive dman, his value would be similar to that of 27 and 83 I think. Maybe 27 and 83 are worth more, but not much more.
Trade deadline with a year left on the contract after this season is the time for max value for these guys...probably even more than this summer as every GM hopes his players will perform to expectation.
By deadline day the holes that near shoring up will be pretty obvious....unless you are the Oilers, the hole are pretty obvious today.
For what it's worth, I heard from someone who today spoke with the Mayor about the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteApparently, Mr. Mandel offered the opinion (he being the Mayor and close personal friends of Mr. Katz) regarding the new arena and entertainment complex. He believes that if it is not built the Oilers will suffer a "slow death" in Edmonton, only to ultimately leave "in shame".
Again, take it for what it's worth. Sorry to be off-topic.
Pisani is the perfect example of a guy you want on your team. Even at 50 games (as mentioned) he makes your team better - to the tune of a couple of wins over the course of a season (at the least, saving 5-10 goals against). Why wouldn't a team take a flyer on this guy, and no better for him than to end up in a place where he has a realistic shot at the cup. Fans in Chi-town will be raving about him the way we have in past here. Good on ya, Fernie!
ReplyDeleteYes the Oilers will leave, and the half dozen or more teams bleeding to death from no fanbase will immediately line up to replace them.
ReplyDeleteBtw, in what's starting to become known as an economic depression, which current non NHL market do the Oilers plan to go to?
Vegas? LOL
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ReplyDelete"Based on the jack shit offers Burke was getting for one year of Kaberle its better to trade 27 or 83 before next summer if they are cold to signing an extension."
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Burke had plenty of quality offers but he didn't want to accept futures.
He could have been offered John Moore + 1st round pick but since he already handed Boston a lottery pick he would have no choice but to decline.
Well if someone can tell me how Pisani @ $500,000 for one year was not worthwhile for this Oiler squad given the imbalanced mess that is our bottom 6 - well I'm all ears. Good for Pies but letting him walk for this little is senseless - even if he only played 40 games it would have been more than worth it for him to babysit one of the LW kids. Clearly this team is going lottery again - so wake me up next spring when the ping pong balls are dropping - because the interim will be dreary at best.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather have the Coyotes' roster and management in Edmonton than what the Oilers currently have, and if the Oil leaves, I'm quite sure that can be arranged.
ReplyDeleteWhat's a "The Hockey News"?
ReplyDeleteI have BOS CGY CHI VAN over the cap. NJD are over the cap, if they sign Kovalchuk. PHI & WAS are right smack at it. A couple of teams are below the floor. I think NYI is the lowest. TOR + VAN too many Dmen, PIT not enough.
ReplyDeleteSurely something has to budge?
Should Tambi be a part of it?
I don't think the Oiler faithful is on-side with a proper rebuild and another year of suck (even if it is entertaining kid suck).
Asiaoil: I think Pisani is a luxury a team like Chicago can take but the Oilers cannot afford.
ReplyDeleteIf Pisani spends time on the IR there's the problem of calling kids up and putting people in situations where they might not have a chance to succeed.
I think Chicago is in a much better positin to cover those problems than the Oilers.
I think Edmonton would rather not decimate their farm team like they did last year. With a somewhat injury prone roster already it's one more risk to take.
Now, the Oilers might not have an adequate replacement but the stability of keeping a more stable roster will benefit the entire organization.
"Should Tambi be a part of it?"
ReplyDeleteIf he can get a useful player for not a lot going back, then absolutely.
Having a ton of cap space space and batman as an owner ought to be good for something.
I think Chicago's looking pretty thin at F this year too. Sure their top end is better than ours, but they're not that deep after going all Florida Marlin.
ReplyDeleteStill, he's value at that price, Chicago has done well. His playoff "cachet" certainly means more to them than us. I think this is more about management wanting space going forward.
It's looking like the plan is to send as many kids off to war as they can, rather than sheltering a few and bringing them along slowly.
WG: Do you play the Hemsky card, then?
ReplyDeleteI think Edmonton would rather not decimate their farm team like they did last year. With a somewhat injury prone roster already it's one more risk to take.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, why would we want to sign Pisani and risk bringing up a kid from the farm for 40 games next year?
Instead we should sign nobody at all and bring up a kid for the full 82 games!
I think we will learn in the next few days just how bad the Oilers are planning on being. At the moment, we know they have had talks with Aaron Asham. So they are still trying to do something.
ReplyDeleteAnother player who would fit their profile, ie. veteran workhorse won't miss many nights, would be Ruslan Fedetenko. I think we have three contracts left. So throw in a veteran center - though they are starting to be quite picked over. Lets go with Jeff Halpern purely for argument's sake. Some major holes plugged, a much harder team to play against produced.
The Oilers could still seriously improve their competiveness in many ways. The could, for example, go after Kim Johnsson, Willie Mitchell (if he is healthy) or Mike Mottau (if Jersey signs Kovalchuk)and improve the defence. The question is becoming how badly do they want to upgrade?
It is hard to believe nothing can be done. On the other hand it isn't like other GMs are making much headway either. Any day now it is going to break wide open and players are going to be signing here, there and everywhere. That is when we will know for sure if the Oilers plan to tank this season.
In the meantime, I continue to be optimistic.
I'm trying to stay optimistic as well,but the reality is beginning to set in.
ReplyDeleteI think the inability to move Souray has also slowed things up,and I think Tambo's strategy is to just sit back and see what unfolds.We've got the training camps cuts/moves,and we're #1 waiver priority for the first couple weeks of the season...and he's got the green light from (most) of the fanbase to stink it up and play the kids...if nothing falls in his lap he might just sit tight and what you see now is what you get.
Schitzo: Can't be worst than what he did last year.
ReplyDeleteI mean there's no fucking way if he played like he did last year management could justify letting the kids down.
I hope/think they try to compete this year and sign a household name to play D or depth winger. Next season overlaps with crunch time for getting a new arena built doesnt it? and I don't see the medicine salesman being okay with the optics of trying to get a partially public funded arena built for a lottery club team. It reminds me of the episode of the simpsons with Mark Maguire. "Do you want the truth, or do you wanna see me hit some dingers?!" "Dingers, Dingers, Dingers"
ReplyDeleteYou know a team could probably pick up Michael Ryder for pretty efffin cheap right now.
ReplyDeleteSign Asham and trade for Ryder and they could bring in MPS and Eberle a lot more slowly.
Flip Ryder and Asham at the deadline for picks and feed the kids minutes.
I know it's an unpopular discussion that routinely was met with punchy sentiments or non response, but in all honesty if the plan was to run on half blown tires again this year I would have prefered dealing the likes of Penner and Hemsky prior to the draft. To run Hemmer and the Fridge out until the deadline seems border line stupid to me.
ReplyDeleteA. weaker draft class next year
B. risk of injury
C. depreciation of asset value (pretty sure highest price would be two years left on value deals with bad contracts coming back...a few of the win nows would have been crazy to not jump at that).
Judging by the fact that Kaberle is still a leaf, and kovalchuck was exchanged for a underwhelming mixed bag (Kovalchuck trade value > Penner or Hemsky) I am honestly pretty nervous to see what we end up with for these guys.
Post shedding last years deadweight we could have easily built a competitive roster. Instead we reinforced the living hell out of the farm team so that all our secondary prospects (because our main ones are likely going to be on the opening night roster) won't get shelled down there. I agree the farm team needed fixing just don't understand why exactly the same concern couldn't be shown at least icing a debateably competitive pro squad.
If they saw this team as viably competitive in the next 3 years, which yes it could be, our moves this summer don't appear to reflect that. As such, the lack of movement of these guys followed by anything aside from respectable contract extensions is ikely another case of poor asset management.
2 steps forward - 1.5 steps back
Chartleys
Well Hemmer and Penner have one more year left on their deals than Kovalchuk did.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm not sure what they would have got that would make them more competitive this year.
And the top 2 guys in next year's draft are likely as good as the first two this year and both represent an organisational need.
Draft classes don't really emerge until the season begins. Seriously. Seguin wasn't Seguin until the fall.
ReplyDeleteWG: Do you play the Hemsky card, then?
ReplyDeleteIn my perfect world Hesmky and Penner sign extensions and play for the Oilers for at least another 6 years each.
However, if Hemsky and/or Penner are cold to extension talk this year, you must look at dealing them if you are a competent manager.
I'm not just looking for a 1st plus a body for these guys.
I want someone who has a couple years of quality track record after being drafted, preferably some pro experience and have excellent arrows pointing up, plus a high pick at the least.
At the deadline, draft picks have their lowest value, so you can get them waaaay cheaper than any other time of the year.
I look for quality 2 way Dmen, and RW. LW looks pretty solid for a while.
Someone like Luke Schenn would be a good target and might be able to be had with TO's abundance of D and lack of Forward depth. (yes, Schenn isn't there yet, but he's only turns 21 in Nov and will be starting his 3rd NHL season. Rushed to show, but a strong track record, size etc.)
A TO trade doesn't have to be a deadline trade since they wont be in a playoff position, but that type of player + pick or other prospect coming back is what you need for Hemsky and/or Penner, and I am of the belief that you cannot get that high of quality of player coming back unless there is more than a year left with the 83/27 contract.
Goalies are too cheap and numerous to trade anything of quality for, unless they are a throw in.
Somehow I missed looking for a C in my post.
ReplyDeleteThere are alot of C in the Oiler pipeline, but none are tracking to be a top two C. Pitlik has a chance, but I wouldn't say no to getting a good top 2 C prospect just because Pitlik is in the org.
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ReplyDelete"Someones tryna make a fool, a fooool outa you, yah!"
ReplyDeleteLT, I for one absolutely love your obscure music references. You're the man.
Can't say I really disagree with what they're saying. As Oiler fans we know the true potential of the pieces that we're working with but to outsiders it looks like this since the beginning of last season...
Out - Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Moreau, Pisani, Comrie, Visnovsky, Staios, Grebeshkov, Potulny, Pouliot
In - Fraser, Vandermeer, Whitney, Foster, a bunch of kids and AHL players.
We happen to know about the extent of injuries and the need for addition by subtraction, but the outsiders see a purge of NHL players without much to fill in the gaps. Realistically I'm sure Steve will pick up one more checker (there has to to be a fire at the heart of the Niedermayer-Madden smoke), but it looks like an intentional rebuild.
In all honesty, I don't really give a damn. My favorite team in fottball is the Steelers - every year the Steelers nation (down to the last man, woman, child and embryo) knows that the Steelers are a contender. We don't ever have 'flashy' offseasons where we load up on big names. We hardly ever resign our guys, electing to replace them through the draft unless they sign for less than value (A Smith, C Hampton) or are generational types worthy of the dollars (J Harrison, T Polamalu, B Roethlisberger). Because of this we are constantly underrated and the team takes the underdog mentality. They have won 2 of the last 5 superbowls and still get no respect.
And if we falter, well I dont give a damn either. Between fighting for the last playoff spot and locking up a generational talent at defense like Adam Larsson, I opt for Larsson. He is looking like the perfect rock to build a Defense and a team around (much like Hedman, damn that Yzerman, he's looking like the Magnificent Bastyard of the GM world).
Anon: That's some heavy bullshit.
ReplyDeleteCouturier almost did 100 points at 16 years old. Larsson is looking better than Hedman. And there's some Western Kids who played PPG at 16.
It's looking to be a very promising draft.
Spoiler:
ReplyDeleteI agree the top two picks are competitive but running with Penner and Hemsky to the deadline likely puts us on the outside looking in at the lottery...We're bad but not bad enough. My concern is that their main plan is to cache in at the draft again next year. If that is the case I'm not sure either of our 1st liners won't be tired of the extreme suck.
Our D is still a pretty precarious front at this point and I'm at a loss on the JDD contract. I actually like the Gerber deal as I think everyone will pass on the way down and he doesn't have to clear re-entry (I think) on the way back up if things change. But would have prefered Gerber plus AHL signing or DD down there. I don't really see the panic on backing up our questionable goalie stock, with additional question marks, prior to knowing the outcome of Bulins shit show to the point that we have.
I don't really like being as close to where we are with pro contracts given the bodies these contracts were given to. Relieved yet frightened that we lost out to the Rangers on the overpriced thug sweepstakes. We're heavy on debateable 3-4th line wingers short on center and defense depth. There is still enough left in the bargain bin defense wise. Minus JFJ or Smac...Slot Struds in the roster as the PB'd or 4th line winger and sign another roster worthy defensemen.
The maholtras of the world were obviously a stretch but another fraser-like gamble is what I would have prefered on the roster. The one still adrift that I would be grabbing goes by the name of Richard Park of the NYI. The guy played on the PK like a demon last year for a junk team, had solid faceoff numbers and lived in the defensive end. The kind of body that would pay off a lot better than Smac's 0.25 minutes averaged over an 82 game schedule.
@ LT:
I agree on the draft final analysis but there was a lot of potential outside the top 5 this year. That isn't always the case and when it shows up, and you happen to be rebuilding, it's worth jumping on. IMO.
Chartleys
@ Flamer:
ReplyDeleteLanding in the bottom two spots is not skill it's a calamity of consecutive errors and misfortune. This years draft had solid pieces into the 2nd round. If you're going prospect hunting it was a good one to stack up in.
There is no way the trade value would be higher than early this summer on these guys.
Two star calibre top 6 wingers costing 4 mil a piece signed for two more years. If the oil have finally concended to the big suck rather than just mismanaged to it we're more than two years out. Why half ass it? If I trade you Hemsky for 4 mil per signed for another two years and take back a boat anchor 1-2 year contract and your contender window is in the present...the return should be pretty huge. We're still coming out of the fog in two years with more young talent in the mix rather than handcuffed to two guys who are more than likely going to be using the words "test the ufa market rather than sign an extension". It's common sense. There is no way anyone given the opportunity to look at a bunch of potential deals would sign on a dotted line without likely a gross overpay....Unless they are in a market with a solid history of current success. We are not that market and dithering is going to end up costing us wrt capitalization of two of our strongest assests.
If the market value was not high enough this summer than we need a new salesmen.
CHartleys
Last comment and I appoligize for the ranting :)!
ReplyDeleteI'm in the underwhelmed boat on ST still.
With the transition from EOG to Katz the majority of his moves were expected:
1. More cash to spend on development
2. More cash to spend on coaching
3. More cash to spend on scouting.
These things will all pay off in the end but I can't fault Lowe for not doing them. EOG spent the cash on being a Cap team and judging by the state of our various other departments not much else.
I look at this roster and I don't believe we are a last place finish barring some huge injuries again. Should ST be lauded for assembling an 8th - 12th place team? I guess so, since he did it well under cap...But we're not a contender either and don't really expect us to be while our two best players (signed to great contracts) our still bound to us. Bulin's contract expires in two years. Souray's contract will be finished up then as well if he still ends up here (not expecting a stunning return regardless of what happens as there is too much crap smeared all over it).
By our lack of higher end FA hunting and the general banter from our talking heads, we are now embracing a slow approach. Hemsky and Penner don't fit that plan. Two years from now I would rather have added to the stable some high quality prospects and be running an offer across the table at these guys testing the UFA market, with an up and coming franchise (position of strength). Rather than grovelling or being part of a kaberle esque media shit show.
Given Boston's current cap hell and our lack thereof, if we wanted Sequin he should have been ours. There was easily a fair deal to be made for a rebuilding franchise with a SAVY GM at the helm. Or to the likes of Philly etc. If we set a goal of being a steady playoff team starting in 2012-2013 then hell deal for 2012-2013 picks. Turn those picks around and carve up the RFA market in the next year or two.(get solid NHL caliber players). We could easily be there.
In two years time I want to be certain I'm actually crawling out of the dank, foul smelling hovel that I've spent pretty much my entire life as an oilers fan in (I was 12 in 1990). Not watching dimisshed returns on Hemsky and Penner as we held them too long to help continue the pursuit of an 8-12th place finish. Obviously, I can stomach a bit more suck. It's just that If we are going to do it then lets really do it.
Chartleys
Last comment and I appoligize for the ranting :)!
ReplyDeleteI'm in the underwhelmed boat on ST still.
With the transition from EOG to Katz the majority of his moves were expected:
1. More cash to spend on development
2. More cash to spend on coaching
3. More cash to spend on scouting.
These things will all pay off in the end but I can't fault Lowe for not doing them. EOG spent the cash on being a Cap team and judging by the state of our various other departments not much else.
I look at this roster and I don't believe we are a last place finish barring some huge injuries again. Should ST be lauded for assembling an 8th - 12th place team? I guess so, since he did it well under cap...But we're not a contender either and don't really expect us to be while our two best players (signed to great contracts) our still bound to us. Bulin's contract expires in two years. Souray's contract will be finished up then as well if he still ends up here (not expecting a stunning return regardless of what happens as there is too much crap smeared all over it).
By our lack of higher end FA hunting and the general banter from our talking heads, we are now embracing a slow approach. Hemsky and Penner don't fit that plan. Two years from now I would rather have added to the stable some high quality prospects and be running an offer across the table at these guys testing the UFA market, with an up and coming franchise (position of strength). Rather than grovelling or being part of a kaberle esque media shit show.
Given Boston's current cap hell and our lack thereof, if we wanted Sequin he should have been ours. There was easily a fair deal to be made for a rebuilding franchise with a SAVY GM at the helm. Or to the likes of Philly etc. If we set a goal of being a steady playoff team starting in 2012-2013 then hell deal for 2012-2013 picks. Turn those picks around and carve up the RFA market in the next year or two.(get solid NHL caliber players). We could easily be there.
In two years time I want to be certain I'm actually crawling out of the dank, foul smelling hovel that I've spent pretty much my entire life as an oilers fan in (I was 12 in 1990). Not watching dimisshed returns on Hemsky and Penner as we held them too long to help continue the pursuit of an 8-12th place finish. Obviously, I can stomach a bit more suck. It's just that If we are going to do it then lets really do it.
Chartleys
Chartleys you are wrong about Bulin we have him for 3 more seasons. :(
ReplyDeleteMrSmitty:
ReplyDeleteJebus!! My brain had convinced itself that two more years was a terribly long time to be stuck with that contract. Good times.
Thanks!
Chartleys