It is impossible to project the opening night lineup (and lines, pairings) for next season. A new head coach, an extreme overhaul across the roster, a goalie with some legal issues, a defenseman in the doghouse. It's a moving target.
With each new season we somehow forget just how important that opening lineup is to the upcoming season. Last year, we were greeted with a physical player on each line, the captain on the 4line and a horrible play late in the game for the first "L" of 09-10. Precursor of things to come? Yes.
Opening Night Fall 2005
- L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
- L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
- L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
- L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
- D1: Pronger-Staios
- D2: Ulanov-Smith
- D3: Cross-Bergeron
Important things to note here are just how many two-way veterans are in the lineup up front. Dvorak might not look sexy in the top 6 but he did some nice things. It's also interesting to note that Mike Peca is out there again and the current group of forwards could use a hand like Peca.
The combined NHL games played of this D group opening night was 3333. Pronger (722), J. Smith (710), Ulanov (702), Cross (603), Staios (537) and Bergeron (59). That's a lot of NHL experience and I think this roster represents MacT's comfort zone: Some gifted young players coming along in defined roles, with veterans surrounding them both F and D. I think we could reasonably name this roster "ideal for Oilers" and be close to top dead center. A beauty team, they just needed a goalie.
Opening Night Fall 2006
- L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Lupul
- L2: Sykora-Torres-Hemsky
- L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
- L4: Reasoner-Thoresen-Winchester
- D1: Tjarnqvist-Smith
- D2: Smid-Staios
- D3: Bergeron-Greene
Important notes here include Smid's role on the team despite being 20 years old and having no NHL experience, the hugely significant change on the 1line and the fact that Stoll-Moreau-Pisani was together two opening nights in a row.
The combined NHL games played total for those 6 defensemen entering opening night was 1871: J. Smith (786), Staios (619), Tjarnqvist (278), Bergeron (134), Matt Greene (27) and Ladislav Smid (0). That is horrible. The Oilers began the season with two rookies and another player with less than 2 NHL seasons under his belt, and gave up over 1450 games of NHL experience to the previous club (that had a very strong chance at the Stanley). Kevin Lowe traded Chris Pronger without a plan and that is reflected on this blue.
Opening Night Fall 2007
- L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
- L2: Stoll-Torres-Nilsson
- L3: Reasoner-Sanderson-Brodziak
- L4: Cogliano-Jacques-Gagner
- D1: Pitkanen-Staios
- D2: Souray-Greene
- D3: Tarnstrom-Gilbert
Important notes here include the promise of that 2line, how much Brodziak had impressed during TC to earn that elevated role, the fact that Jacques is so unique he keeps getting chances.
The combined NHL games played for D this time? 1558. Staios 677, Souray 506, Tarnstrom 258, Pitkanen 206, Greene 105 and Gilbert 12. Only one rookie this time, who would eventually pass Greene during the season (he passed Smid in TC). ANOTHER 313 games lost in terms of NHL experience when compared to the Stanley team.
I also come back to that 2line. It started with promise, faded, resulted in Stortini being placed on that line (with some incredible on-ice reaction from Stoll and Torres) and may or may not have contributed to Stoll and Torres leaving town.
Opening Night 2008
- L1: Horcoff-Cole-Hemsky
- L2: Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson
- L3: Pisani-Moreau-Penner
- L4: Brodziak-Pouliot-Stortini
- D1: Visnovsky-Souray
- D2: Grebeskhov-Gilbert
- D3: Strudwick-Staios
Garon started and that was news. Important notes include Cole on 1line LW and Pisani at center. The kid line started the season together and the 4line once again featured Pouliot out of position. The D pairings looked more experienced and less ragged and Strudwick knocked Smid upstairs to begin the season.
The combined D games in the NHL? 2628, which is a massive improvement. Steve Staios 759, Sheldon Souray 532, Lubomir Visnovsky 499, Jason Strudwick 488, Ladislav Smid 142, Denis Grebeshkov 104 and Tom Gilbert 94. It's not perfect but this was a nice improvement for the club. I should also mention the ill-fated goalie platoon and that MacT went off the rails (Pisani at center, etc) a little this season. It was a trying year for the organization.
Opening Night 2009
- L1: Horcoff-Jacques-Hemsky
- L2: Cogliano-Penner-Brule
- L3: Comrie-O'Sullivan-Stone
- L4: Gagner-Moreau-Stortini
- D1: Grebeshkov-Gilbert
- D2: Souray-Staios
- D3: Visnovsky-Smid
We see Pat Quinn's touch on this lineup, with a physical player on every line and the captain on the 4line. That 2line should have ripped it up, but Gagner was soon forcing his way into the top 6F and Cogliano was soon set adrift. Comrie never did establish himself but he can still impact the offense with those quick hands.
The experience on the blue in 09-10: Staios (839); Souray (613); Visnovsky (549); Smid (202); Grebeshkov (176); Gilbert (176). That's 2,555 NHL games experience. It is/was a nice group, but injuries and age (Staios) ruined the group. Still, the team had an experienced group last fall.
Opening Night 2010 (Projected)
- L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
- L2: Gagner-Hall-Eberle
- L3: Brule-Paarjavi-Cogliano
- L4: Fraser-Jones-Stortini
- D1: Whitney-Gilbert
- D2: (Souray)-Smid
- D3: Vandermeer-Foster
There's any number of ways to post the F's, I've chosen a dedicated "tough minutes" group (L1) to line up against the other team's best; a soft minutes 2line; a second soft minutes 3line and a 4line that might not be a 4line on nights when the kids are making too many mistakes or the club is on the road and the kids are getting killed.
It is not a playoff lineup, but two solid forwards (RH C who can PK and play tough minutes plus a quality veteran on RW) and a settled goaltending situation would make this team an outstanding candidate for 8th in the western conference. I'm not sure that will be the best plan for the future, but this team (if healthy) has all kinds of ability.
Gagner getting some playoff experience this year would be nice. On the other hand, another miserable season should put the team in a good position for a complete rebuild.
ReplyDeleteThe question is whether the Oil (and ST) choose to address and fill the obvious holes. There has been a reluctance to do that in years past, instead of having a desire to stand pat.
ReplyDeleteThere should be some FA Defensemen/centres available out there that might shake loose as autumn approaches, or possibly another team willing to take on bad contract in exchange for a bad contract.
Can Steve do it? Can he make a deal that builds his credibility?
That 2008 opening night roster should serve as a reminder to those of us inclined to defend MacTavish that, good of a coach as he is, it really was time for him to go - and that opening night roster doesn't even reflect Penner being pressboxed and Reddox being on the first line.
ReplyDeleteIf we get the pieces we need, how do you make room for him? If we get a 2006 Pisani-style player - let's say he can play either wing, for the sake of argument - do you dump Cogliano without getting a roster player in return? Do you make the three kids fight it out for two spots? Move Jones or Stortini to the pressbox? And what about that right-handed centre: does Brule move to the wing (with one of the aforementioned moves made to open up a spot for him there)?
I'm not saying that you're wrong that the Oilers need those pieces; clearly you're right, and this team is poised to give up a hell of a lot of power play goals. I'm just wondering what you'd do to make room.
LT, I see I was the last comment on the previous thread before posting was shut down.
ReplyDeleteApologies to all, if I said anything untoward, although for the life of me I can't figure out what that might have been.
Let's leave the predictions to the dogs and not get ahead of ourselves. 8th in the west would be nice but a few things have to fall in place that the Oil have not had luck with the past few years, namely injuries and players living up to expectations or what they 'MAY' be capable of. History be the lesson here that the oil coloured glasses best be left in the pocket until late January or early February when we will see if playoffs are in the cards.
ReplyDeleteand Reddox being on the first line
ReplyDeleteDon’t forget Smid on the Wing!
Game after Game.
plus a quality veteran on RW
I saw Stafford as a possibility for a trade. He’s not necessarily quality, but he’s BIG, an important quality.
How about Branko Radivojevic?
May be mid-contract, but he played checking line RW at the Olympics.
Of course, for grit reasons, the Oilers might not want a Euro. Or is that an Euro?
LT,
ReplyDeleteYou had mentioned over at ON that you thought the Oilers were a couple of players from 8th.
They have to make up a 60 goal differential on GF vs GA.
I don't see how 3 "scoring" lines including a bunch of rookies and this D comes anywhere close to improving enough to make up that deficit - even if the tending is stable.
How is this team any different from TB last year?
if I said anything untoward, although for the life of me I can't figure out what that might have been.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it was you.
I don't think it was you.
ReplyDeleteIs it me? Is it me?
Steve, I wonder how much of that 08 line-up from MacT was rebellion against the decision-makers in the org who had put him in an unbalanced predicament yet again.
ReplyDeleteAs far as this year's opening line-up goes, I've said it before and I'll say it again (and Bar Qu alludes to it above)...
Do we want another lottery pick or a playoff run?
Further roster decisions depend on the answer to this question.
If it is Option B, playoffs, then I vote for Jeff Halpern as the RH PKing vet centre addition.
Thanks, Mr. D, I hope not.
ReplyDeletePlaying Penner with Hemsky is a waste of Penner. Just put Paajarvi with Horc and Hemmer.
ReplyDeletePenner and Brule works. Put Cogliano, or the centre you trade him for between them. With Brule and Penner, Cogliano should try cheating on every draw since both Brule and Penner can take a faceoff.
Hall-Gagner-Eberle is an ideal soft minutes line.
Other teams will have matchup problems if the Oilers go with.
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Hemsky
Hall-Gagner-Eberle
Penner-Cogliano-Brule
Jones-Fraser-Stortini
If I remember correctly, Strudwick didn't exactly kick Smid upstairs. He bumped him right down to Springfield as a result of our Three-headed-goalie(tm) version1, and the first coming of Steve MacIntyre.
ReplyDeleteThat group was all sorts of fucked up.
"resulted in Stortini being placed on that line (with some incredible on-ice reaction from Stoll and Torres) and may or may not have contributed to Stoll and Torres leaving town"
ReplyDeleteLT (or anyone else) what is this about? Specifically, "with some incredible on-ice reaction from Stoll and Torres?
Wow, I was feeling a bit optimistic about next season until you laid it out. This team is going to spend a lot of time in their own end of the rink, methinks.
ReplyDeleteThe PP could struggle too. Foster apparently has a huge shot, I thought he was a righty, but hockeydb.com shows him as a LH shot, so that helps. Still, with Vis, Souray(?) and O'Sullivan all gone there is a dearth of guys who can play the point on the PP.
The D is wafer thin. Smid solidly in the top four? God help us. And that's before injuries strike.
They need three good forwards and two good defenders to be a legitimate contender for a playoff spot, methinks. Beyond that, hope for kindness from the hockey gods and for some of the kids to excel.
Hope may not be a plan, but it's what we've got, Lain.
From what I remember (which these days is very little)...
ReplyDeleteOilers were playing the Pens. Letang scored and MacT made a comment on the bench about Letang's free trip into the zone and Torres replied with something along the lines of what do you expect when we're dragging Stortini around. That erupted into a shouting match and Torres and Stoll were benched for the next game.
On a positive note, the Oilers are really bolstering the OKC team. It wasn't that long ago that the Oilers were to cheap to have an AHL affiliate, much less outbid people for good AHL players.
ReplyDeleteOver the last couple of years the Oiler callups have gotten absolutely massacred in terms of scoring chances and fenwick. I mean murdered. This with the exception of Stone and Potulny. Hopefully that changes in the near future.
I'm with Vic. Without a few solid roster moves or the older kids really cranking it up a knotch, these guys are in trouble.
ReplyDeleteSouray really needs to stick around at this point.
And just on a general note: Bruising forwards really are the Tickle-Me-Elmo of he NHL GM fraternity this summer. Criminy, it was only a couple of years ago that the concensus was that the New NHL was a small, speedy man's game.
ReplyDeleteAnd maybe Renney has a chance if they could give him the forwards to build a retro-rocket line. Give them the gig of taking own zone faceoffs and ending their shifts in the other end. Not necessarily tough minutes, just play for territory. That would bump a skilled rookie or two back to the AHL or the 4th line, but that may be a good thing.
Then maybe someone like Brewer for Souray in trade, And another Dman of that calibre in trade or UFA.
... they'd be in with a chance.
You're right LT, he lines for this fall really are a long ways from being there. At this point there may not be any right combination - especially if you are willing to run 3 kids in Edmonton at the start of the season.
ReplyDeleteCould be some great nights, could be some truly awful nights as they learn by trial. But I just wonder if it would not be possible to put Hemsky w/Hall (someone to finish his passes) and Horcoff w/Penner for the true toughs. The H&H combo might create a lot of space for each other is my thinking.
Am still struck at how bad (in the rearview mirror) last years lines got. JFJ on the first line, the defense pairings (how OTC made a mess of Grebs and Gilbert - and how Gilbert finally bounced back at the end of the season). How on earth this group was 6-2-1 after 9 games?
Those lines are just plain awful.
spOILer: Wasn't you, and apologize that it kind of looks that way. Usual suspects.
ReplyDeleteThat is a ton of talent up front but our D and G are shambles. Maybe Dubnyk can step it up. Until then, like Ducey said, we are TB except we don't have Hedman.
ReplyDeleteHowever, LT is right. If they can sign a couple vets and address need, the playoffs should be within grasp.
Do they want to push for playoffs? I would think so. The odds of landing an impact player for next year aren't that high. This isn't a lottery team anymore.
Hey, at the start of every season, I was probably convinced that every one of those line-ups had a shot at making the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteMacT was/is a good coach who went wonky in his last season here.
Horcoff/Hemsky/Penner is the only proven thing on this team, and should be kept together (nearly) at all costs. It's possible that none of them will be around when the Little Rascals start really hitting the ball out of the sandlot anyways, so run Spanky, Buckwheat, Chubby and Waldo out there together and hope their parents can still bring home the bacon while the kids are figuring things out.
That was my comment. Dammit.
ReplyDeleteDubnyk just signed 1 way deal for 2 years 800k per season
ReplyDeleteIts Gagner's 4th year, time to put him in deeper water, but play him with Penner as a life preserver.
ReplyDeleteI posted this in the closed thread (I apologize if was me, I'm suspect at the best of times)
From toughest to easiest minutes:
MP-10-83
27-89-67
Jones-Fraser-Stort
Hall-13-Eberle
Not sure if MP can fill in for 27 there, but he has the most experience of the players available and putting Hall vs. 1st pairing Dmen and good NHLers to start gives me the heebee jeebees.
Gotta make sure 6 and 77 are on the ice when when 10's line is out.
Trading 44 and 13 for a 3D would help,
DD going to the Worlds (lots of Oiler connections) and getting his contract done first are both very telling regarding the org's thoughts on DD vs. JDD.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good thing.
"Mike Peca is out there again,..."
ReplyDelete???
I thought he announced his (formal) retirment last year, after failing to find gainful employment? Has he "un-retired"?
If so, the Oilers could do worse, were he to sign and be prepared to play out here in the frozen wilderness. That would seem unlikely.
Otherwise, I agree with spOILer that Halpern might be a decent addition, if a value for the $$$ contract can be negotiated. I've always seen him as Peca without the baggage/drama/"I'm really a scorer, just ask me."
It was me with the disrespecting.
ReplyDeleteIn my defense, my parents did a terrible job raising me.
I guess I'll try harder to ignore what needs to be ignored, to be part of the solution and not the problem, but it's getting harder to do. (Anyone agree?)
The fracturing of the oilogosphere has diluted the conversation. There's more static and less signal and that just leads to me yelling at the TV. And that's pretty useless, I guess. But I don't know what else to do.
I really think we could have a lot of fun and interesting conversations if there was one blog for us all to read where comments were moderated. The initial posts wouldn't even need to be that great, just a question to get things going and the likelihood that some of the insightful posters would answer and the annoying ones wouldn't.
The moderator would just erase everything instantly that was posted by someone who has proven to be a BS'er or fool. This would keep things on topic, too. Instead every conversation becomes Horcoff versus Schremp.
Just imagine:
LT, BDHS, JW, Vic, mc79, Rivers, Scott, and 20 or so insightful posters having informal, funny, polite, well argued conversations about hockey. Fucking Shangri-la.
with Penner as a life preserver
ReplyDeleteUh oh. Has he been eating at Wendy's again.
---
LT,
Agreed that the playoffs are possible with a couple more veterans.
But the D is pretty fugly, and will be more so when the normal run of injuries hit. Not sure if the Oil can buy or sign enough help there.
Oh, and how sure can we be that Jones and Fraser won't suck at 4th line minutes? JFJ and Smac will, of course.
In fairness, the 27 that got benched by MacT wasn't the same 27 that showed up last year in better shape and with a chip on his shoulder. Some of MacT's moves in the last season sure looked like he needed to go, but his first PB'ing of Penner wouldn't be the first thing I'd point at.
ReplyDeleteI can get behind Woodguy's starting lineup, but boy that hinges a lot on MPS being able to keep his head above the water right away against the Sedins and Zetterbergs. It would solve a lot of matchup problems if one of MPS or Hall could pull off #1LW duties, giving us two decent lines you could roll over. This actually is the only scenario where I see us being competitive for a playoff spot (although maybe that's all shot to hell anyways by our swiss cheese D + G).
Otherwise, unless Tambo comes up with vet help at C and D, I see LT's Horpensky reunion for PVP, sheltering the kids, and going for another high pick.
Since Bob keeps saying it, lets pretend there's some truth to Smyth for Souray, presumably after Kovalchuk signs there, and lets pretend that there's nothing else involved in the deal.
ReplyDeleteHall - Horcoff - Hemsky
Penner - Gagner - Brule
Smyth - D. Moore - Eberle
MPS - Frasor - Jones
How good would the rookies have to be for that team to be watchable up front?
That's of course ignoring the fact that the Oilers would have 2 top 4 D and 4 bottom pairing D making up their top 6.
PDO: If 94 came back, wouldn't you consider putting him back with 10 & 83? Then you could safely drop 27 to the 2nd line + 89, and sprinkle the rookies between the 3rd and 4th for easier matchups.
ReplyDeleteRegardless, I think the forwards on this team next year (assuming the rookies make the cut) will be fun to watch in the O-zone. It's what happens in the D-zone that'll keep us popping Tums.
William:
ReplyDeleteIt'd be tempting, but I'll be absolutely shocked if Hall isn't playing on the same line as Hemsky to start the year.
In fairness, the 27 that got benched by MacT wasn't the same 27 that showed up last year in better shape and with a chip on his shoulder.
ReplyDeleteCertainly true. But even at the time, he was our best LW; the numbers bore that out.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete//It'd be tempting, but I'll be absolutely shocked if Hall isn't playing on the same line as Hemsky to start the year.//
ReplyDeleteHemsky is likely to be facing the toughest opposition. Why would you want to do that with Hall, you're prized asset.
Give Hall his likely future centre, Gagner, and feed him easy minutes.
Paarjarvi-Horcoff-Hemsky (toughs)
Penner-Cogliano-Brule (second toughs) Cogliano in his 4th year, Brule in his 5th.
Hall-Gagner-Eberle soft minutes
If Paarjarvi can't hack it, well then it will be Penner, but Brule becomes rather useless without Penner.
I think it would be bad news to give Hall anything but a soft minutes role and power play time. Putting him out against the top defensive pairing of the other team is not a good idea.
Godot:
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers are going to have to cheat with rookies in places they really shouldn't be.
I don't think I'd put Hall there if I was coach, but there's other things to keep in mind including developing Hall into a two-way player as quickly as possible and finding ways to keep Hemsky happy... which could include giving him a new toy to play with.
I'd shelter Hall too, but can see PDO's point that it'll be hard with the optics not to put the super-hyped #1 draft pick on the first line with Hemsky. Smyth is the one player I can see coming back, especially if he puts on the C, being able to push Hall down the chart without much backlash. Then you could easily put together a kid line which the public would love to watch tear up the softs.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone ever run any numbers to determine the QC/QT that Hall/MPS/Eberle faced against/with last year?
Fun how people forget quickly.
ReplyDeleteWe should be careful this time around. Some people were applauding JFJ on the first line.
As for the last thread this is what I have to say: I know i have my issues, and i'm part of the problem in doing this. But I don't feel like i'm entirely responsible either.
I feel at times you make it look like, having a different opinion than what Math should generally suggest, is idiotic, and that all the rest is unprooven. Well, i'd help if you stop doing that. Help me out there. By constantly accepting it as truth, and not requestioning it's value (And context of context) (Ex: Player X is playing bad opposition and good teamates, tough he's having personal issues or etc, sometimes it feels like you calculate the human factor out) you actively do what you accuse people of doing.
You take something out of your ass, even if it has numbers.
The ONLY indicator i've ever saw given out by someone, was showing that Corsi had a 5,5 correlation with success, and Fenwick 6. That's all. As for Shooting percentage this year, it's 5.
Please back up your science. If enough arguements given, I will switch sides. Until then, I will continue to have a different opinion than what's accepted as truth here. Please accept that.
The ONLY indicator i've ever saw given out by someone, was showing that Corsi had a 5,5 correlation with success
ReplyDeleteYou must be mistaken; correlation coefficients range between zero and one.
I'm giving Hemsky, a new toy, an all-star at the men's world championship, Paajarvi, whose game is more suited to Hemsky's, who has played two years with men, who has lived on his own for two years.
ReplyDeleteYou want to keep Hall away from top pairing defensemen...baby steps.
You want teams to forget about the Hall's line because they have to worry about Hemsky's line and Penner's line.
You have Penner and Hemsky for at least a year and a half. Use that time to feed Hall easy minutes.
I want Hall to succeed. Give him Gagner and easy minutes.
Debating line combinations too intently is probably premature until we see how our assorted rookies fare at the NHL level; informed conjecture is still conjecture.
ReplyDeleteSteve: Hugh sorry.
ReplyDelete0,55 0,6 and 0,5.
What does "hugh" mean?
ReplyDeleteThis RH PK'ing 3L center guy,
ReplyDeleteLT has Brule in that spot. When does the coin drop and Brule become Peca? Guy with some hands and defensive chops. Could he develop into that?
Sell Cogs for help at D, stick Comrie or Pisani on starboard and teach him the ropes. It's where he slots, Poo is down the river, why pretend that Brule's NHL role, should he keep one, isn't exactly that and start him on the path right now? Maybe platoons with Foster in and out of 3/4, but get his head dialed into the Selke, maybe in a couple of years you'll have what you need.
Thanks, LT, and no apology necessary, you gotta do what you gotta do when you're the owner of the only saloon in Tombstone. Just glad I wasn't the one who lost everyone else's posting privileges.
ReplyDeleteA lot of love, well, like for this edition of the Oilers but I think we're going to see quite a few 5-3 losses. They are going to score some. There's some nice skill there for sure and the kids who make the team either have legitimate pro experience like Omark or Paajarvi or have done well in the pros in a short stint, like Eberle, or are an obvious talent like Hall.
ReplyDeleteSo they're a step up from some of what we have seen before.
But as always we have the spectre of two lines to take on soft minutes and that doesn't include the fourth line. So that's scary.
And throw in a group of D who are meh imo, Smid and Foster as the second pair, for example, and goaltending that may come down to DD and ADD again and this club isn't going anywhere.
Not presently constituted anyways.
They have to move Souray and I guess we get some sort of vet back, maybe a guy like Zubrus say. And probably Cogliano gets moved too. So if your 'fourth' line includes a guy like Zubrus then you're more like Anaheim a few years back, with two lines doing the slogging, Selanne taking on soft minutes and the kids being sheltered like crazy.
Of course that team won the Cup. Then again they had Giguere in net and Pronger, Niedermeyer and Beauchemin on the blue.
So yeah a ways to go but at least the seeds have been planted. And as Vic noted the AHL club looks good and management has at least been saying the right things about putting this together.
So that's a good sign.
Should be an entertaining team but not there yet I think.
Then Pat, do you go get the guys who will fill your holes now, or do you wait another year?
ReplyDeletespOILer: THAT'S the million dollar question. Dominic Moore, Fernando Pisani, Willie Mitchell, Denis Grebeshkov, plus a goalie who isn't headed for Joliet.
ReplyDeleteBUT do you want to do that or draft 1, 2 or 3?
Well that's the question, right? The problem is we don't know if these kids are ready yet. Hall will be in the NHL for sure. I suspect that Paajarvi is ready as well. Is Eberle? Some people think so. He certainly has done well in his short AHL stint. And there is Omark who is older and more experienced than the lot of them.
ReplyDeleteThat's four frigging rooks though. Four!
But if they are ready then how do you keep them down?
Say Omark replaces Cogliano on LT's lineup for starters.
This is what I would do. I'd look for my two other options on the wing. Lets say Zubrus as a guy who comes over from Souray or that type of player. And then a guy signed as a FA.
Now if the kids make the roster then these guys flank Fraser. Now you have a true tough minutes line, no disrespect meant to Jones or Stortini.
If Omark doesn't make the club then one of those guys gets bumped up and Stortini draws in. If Eberle or Paajarvi doesn't make it then Jones draws in.
So I guess that's how I'd do it. I'd sign my two guys to PK and check some and then play it by ear after that. Guys are going to get hurt and kids are going to falter and having a couple of guys to step in there won't hurt. If the team does well then great, if they are out of the race then you trade those vets for a pick or two.
That's my plan damnit!
Re Black Dog's comment about a lot of 5-3 losses. I think that's OK and I embrace it because the games might become fun to watch again. It's been a long while since we've seen exciting (read offensive) hockey (2006 playoff run aside). So I say let the young gun forwards and Dubnyk get some experience and entertain the folks. The team hopefully ends up 25 to 30 and then Magnifico Stu gets a crack at Larsson.
ReplyDeleteThe past 4 seasons have whipped my enthusiasm and optimism senseless. Do a proper rebuild and it will be all good (I hope).
The elephant in the room or elephants in this case - the Hemsky and Penner contracts. Are they part of this future? Personally I think they are. These kids have cheap contracts for three years. You have to take advantage of that and dumping the two legitimate NHL forwards on the club at this time doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless you get a ridiculous return.
ReplyDeleteSo if you want these guys to stick around then you have to show them something.
I know some might not agree with me on this, that's fine. You get rid of these guys though and I think you're setting the club back again, imo. So you need to show them you're on the right track.
Speeds - you had asked in a previous thread the rule for AHL veterans.
ReplyDeleteYou're allowed 6 "veteran" skaters(non-goalies);
5 with 260 Pro games or less and;
one more of 320 pro games or less.
Reddox 275(if ECHL games count), Giroux, Moran, Ondrus, all fall into the "veteran" category.
fpb,
ReplyDeleteTo bolster your point about stats a bit.
Whether or not corsi numbers are useful is still very much open to debate. The correlation of corsi to points is .626. If you do a scatter plot of corsi and points the top five or six teams each year in terms of points are also usually the top five or six corsi teams. If you eliminate those points then the correlation really deteriorates. Great teams produce great corsi but having a poor corsi doesn't mean you are a poor team, nor good corsi that you are a good team.
Try a thought experiment, imagine the Russian national team in 1972. Were they a good team? Did they have a good corsi? Just because you are being out shot (including blocks and misses) doesn't mean you are losing the territorial war or giving up the best scoring chances.
I am going to try once again, while on the subject of predictors of success, to point out that sheltered minutes come in three forms,
1. Poor Opposition
2. Veteran Skilled Line Mates
3. Both
The Oilers don't have the horses for option 3. Gagner won't see anything like the poorest opposition. Hall will end up on 1st or 4th or splitting time in between.
As for the million dollar question I think the Oilers are in mid-rebuild. They are already to improved to get, barring record setting injuries, another certain lottery pick. You might as well go the rest of the way and pick up the last few pieces to try to get a playoff spot.
What kind of money do you suppose Mitchell wants that nobody has signed him yet? He'd certainly be a good place to start. Maybe a 1 year for Andy Sutton? Perhaps stop thinking purely in terms of the physical part of defence and grab Mike Mottau. Pisani seems obvious, as would Comrie. Why re-invent the wheel.
What I don't see is a logical candidate for goal. We either hope our propsects step up or acquire somebody else's (Scott Munroe or Mike Climie). All the options seem either inexperienced or big question marks.
If we're taking a run at the playoffs, I don't mind Zubrius. Some people are going to choke on his salary though, relative to that role.
ReplyDeleteMitchell is to resume skating halfway through July but sounds like Canucks have first crack at him. But he would be perfect if he can return to form.
If the answer is Moore, I'm okay with it, but I'd almost rather develop Cogs or Brule into that role than bring in someone off the same tree. Still, he would be better, now.
And good point there, Pat about starting to take runs onaccounta Hemsky and Penner.
But then we need to look at improvement on D too.
We need to see how this Souray thing is going to pan out, if at all. Cogs probably too.
Yeah that defense as it stands is going to bleed chances and I still don't see them killing penalties.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm hoping the injury bug doesn't kill them yet again and they compete hard. If they had the same level of try as the Leafs had last year they'll be fun to watch.
Hall's got the pedigree and MPS, Omark, and to a lesser extent Eberle are about as ready as rookies can be to take on the challenge.
I'm trying to keep a level head, but these rookies aren't exactly Gagner and Cogliano 3 years ago.
ReplyDelete-a men's world championship all-star with two years playing against men
-1 ppg AHLer (small sample, but bad team)
-23 year old with 3 1/2 years in SEL and .65ppg in KHL last year.
-The new hockey Jesus with two Memorial Cup MVP honors
Even if they still act like rookies, this team is probably out of the lottery.
Give 83 & 27 something to stick around for. Play the rooks if they earn the spot and fill in with as good of players as you can get on one year contracts.
BD,
If Holmgren offers Carter for Hemsky straight up, what do you do? Assume Carter would sign an extension.
I think the D will be better at killing penalties than last year. The Forwards on the other hand are down a Pisani and a Moreau after being under-manned last year, and gained a Fraser.
ReplyDeleteI would do Cogliano for Dvorak in an eyeblink right now. Or friggin sign Pisani. Since we're going to go with a balanced team; have safety nets for the kids.
Also,
ReplyDeleteRe: Oilers not lottery team
Renney coaching vs. OTC is good for 8-10 more points. (more ties for sure)
Oilers won't be a lottery team this year.
ReplyDeleteAnd if the plan is to be a lottery team, then it's asinine to have MPS and Hall on the team.
It's highly improbable, if not damn near impossible, if that as much can go wrong this year and did last year.
They'd need some (okay, a lot) of help from lady luck to be a playoff squad... but then again, the NW is looking as weak as it ever has. Colorado will fade. Minnesota isn't anything special. Vancouver is clearly the class of the division... and Calgary has just a plain weird roster.
I'd guess they're around 11th in the West, but that's going to depend what they do with their D and what they do with their extra F's and what they do with their shopping money... and then of course there's lady luck, injuries, and goaltending.
Hall will be in the NHL for sure
ReplyDeleteThat's the interesting thing
Hall will make the line-up
But the other Younguns -
Pajarvi, Eberle & Omark are all older, more experienced
Probably more "ready"
related to Willie Mitchell. I heard it mentioned somewhere - no idea where, that he is still suffering with concussion-like symptoms. So much so that his career was in jeopardy. Sorry, no link or memory where I even heard it.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else here something like that ?
Mitchell Article
ReplyDeleteSounds like progress based on this article, but it doesn't sound like he's ready for game time action. 6 weeks ago, he was still suffering.
another reference to doubting as to Mitchell's health and being ready. See point #4 of the blog.
ReplyDeleteSharks Blog reference to Mitchell
Regwald,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link re Mitchell's concussion. That makes it clear why such a heart and soul guy is not already signed. I had no idea it was that bad.
Llnnaeus, you are welcome. I bet he gets a training camp tryout if nothing else. If he can't pass a physical, he can't get a contract.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I wonder how the CBA handles this ? He must still be getting paid as an injured player - contract or otherwise ? via insurance.
Re: Corsi
ReplyDeleteIt is my opinion that puck possession is the single most important metric that correlates to winning hockey games.
The problem is that we don't have a recordable "apples to apples" way of measuring puck possession. Corsi (or who is shooting the puck more) is the best measuring stick that we have to indicate puck possession.
Until we discover or invent a better way of recording puck possession, we will keep searching and uncovering new ways to look at the game.
For me, one of the coolest things that I have been following is the new stats and metrics that have appeared in the relatively brief time (4 years) I have been frequenting the Oilogosphere. Corsi, Zone shift, PDO number and others I am probably forgetting have all been invented in the fertile minds of the people that are reading LT's and others blog everyday.
I supose my prediction is that the Oilers won't be as prolifically aweful as last year. Although as currently comprised they are not a playoff team. Thus I'd expect them to finish somewhere between 20 and 25th overall in the league. So we're a lottery pick or just outside one. So I'd imagine we'll show some improvement and get a pretty good player next year at the draft.
ReplyDeleteThere's a lot of optimism surrounding the kids (as there should be), but whenever I look at this team I see some pretty big holes.
ReplyDeleteWhat I also see a lot of though, is cap space. Even with Souray on the books, and about $5M going to Gagner and Brule's new contracts (conservative estimate for my purposes), we're about $10M under.
There's talk that Sharp could be shopped. If we can trade out Cogliano for Sharp, that leaves us with $6M. If we can make the rumoured Brewer trade, or a deal for someone like Commodore, we actually save a little and get a decent defender on the roster who can kill penalties. Bring back Pisani, or add someone like him capable of playing that role, we'd be in much better shape, still be well under the cap, and not tied down to long term deals that could cause a problem when Hall/MPS/Eberle are looking for their 2nd contracts.
Penner and Hemsky are first class NHL players and barring injury should both be solid next season. Hall, MPS and Eberle are blue chip rookies - three potential Calder candidates even, while Gagner and especially Cogliano have potential for exponential improvement in the 2010-11 season to come.
ReplyDeleteSo long as he's not being touted as a first line center Horcoff also has shown he can be an excellent player(pleeease don't make him captain).
The defence, although not exactly the 1977 habs isn't nearly as bad as it's getting billed, especially if Souray returns and stays healthy. I don't think he's a bad dressing room influence, unless the team is rotten anyway.
The goalies are somewhat dodgy as usual, but when the forwards are too scared to throw a check ala POS, it causes a ripple effect back to the defence, which in turn leads to errors that leave the goalies hanging out to dry. By eliminating these defensive dunderheads, many potential goals against go with them.
So long as management provides these guys with adequate backup at the bottom of the batting order(:P) I seriously doubt if the team's going to be any worse than it's been for a very long time. And since this is a team game, with a new head coach who understands the dynamics of youth(I've seen lots of Renney in NY and he's great with kids), it's not too big a stretch to imagine Oilers playing next April.
Anon: That ''Hugh'' meant, ah damn, silly error.
ReplyDeleteHugh can also be interrogative, or desperative.
Matt N: I think Fenwick could arguably be a better metric.
ReplyDeleteI think you shouldn't blame some defenders who will block the shot instead of putting pressure.
(Teams who have tighter defensive strategy, than the one who apply pressure more, could be disadvantaged)
spOILer - Zubrus just an example of a guy I think they would need to take back in a Souray deal, a couple of years on his deal, overpaid, sub in whomever you like there, just an example
ReplyDeleteWoodguy - if you could sign him longterm then I would absolutely ocnsider it
Let's say the kids are as good as advertised and that we deal Souray for 94 and we also sign Moore; or that we find the magical two forwards we've been looking for since 34 started being brittle and peca left town.
ReplyDeleteOK, then what do we do about the D? Because while, yes, Foster and Vandermeer have hair on their asses and more NHL caps than say Plante and Chorney they still aren't guys who plays any kind of minutes on contending teams.
The Smyth for Souray rumors don't make a ton of sense. That's too much depth on LW compared to the rest of the lineup. Penner for Marc Staal or something would need to follow.
ReplyDeleteSharks say they are going to match the Hjalmarsson offer sheet.
ReplyDeleteTime to give Skille an offer sheet.
What's the limit on number of offer sheets a single team can face in one summer? I think its two but am not sure.
kudos to everyone for keeping level heads and creating a thread full of quality discussion.
ReplyDeleteBD is right. You don't lose Penner and Hemsky, not when there are so many young'uns who need veteran presence. And since we know what we have in those two players, it makes it easier to go with the devil we know versus the ones we don't.
And I would love if Souray could stay with the team, but there are too many smoking bridges behind him for that to happen. Who is out there to replace him with is the big question.
Say no to Smyth (and I love the guy).
Interesting news about Hjalmarlsson. What would Chicago give to a team to take Campbell's contract off their hands? Who is not part of their core that who would be a good grab for a team that has cap space?
ReplyDeleteIf the lineup that LT posted is what the Oil are going with come the 2010-11 season, we're going for another high draft pick not a playoff spot.
ReplyDeleteI'm okay with that.
Bar Qu - they'd have to give the world, he has five years left and its seven per cap hit and actual money.
ReplyDeleteHe is a good player but overpriced by three million I would say.
Wow the Hawks are just a mess, its really getting ugly for them. I'm still of the opinion that they may be ok though.
Brouwer moves into the top nine to replace one of Ladd, Versteeg, Byfuglien. He scored 22 last year I think. Good player, big body, good hands.
The kid they got from Toronto, Stallberg, is big and fast and can definitely play that Ladd role.
So they need a kid to step into the top nine or they need to pick a body up at the deadline.
This offer sheet really puts them against the wall plus they have to sign Niemi. I think I read somewhere that they have 100K to sign six guys. Dump Huet and its still not possible I think.
If they have to move Sharp then they're really taking a hit.
I saw a list of the pieces they got in these trades, they picked up some serious quality prospects. They would have to send a couple of those at least to get someone to take Campbell.
I think they end up moving Sharp, which sucks for them, and building for another run in a couple of years when the new batch of cheap kids are in the lineup.
and Reddox being on the first line
ReplyDeleteDon’t forget Smid on the Wing!
Game after Game.
This is mythology. Reddox played on the "first line" for a few games right around New Year 2009. Hemsky got tattooed by Tootoo and missed three weeks with concussion. The team was on a winning streak and the second and third lines were both playing well, so MacT moved Reddox right into Hemsky's spot with Horcoff and Penner and played them against the toughs. It didn't work, the winning streak ended, and so did the experiment. Sure, Reddox was no Hemsky, but this just in: neither was anybody else on the team. The alternative (without breaking up the 2 and 3 lines) was to put Stortini in there, and no doubt people would still be howling about that too, had it happened.
Asd for Smid, that "game after game" he played on the wing was exactly two (2) games, 19 shifts, 12:19 TOI. Ladi was coming off of concussion and MacT wanted to get him some ice without throwing him out there for 18 minutes on the blue. I disagreed at the time, thought he should move Strudwick up front and still have him available to move back if Smid struggled, but it was two games, dammit. Nov 20 & 26, the only action Ladi saw in a calendar month.
I don't quite see either of those things as a firing offence.
PS: I'm imagining "Hugh" as "Ugh" with a French accent. :)
I've said many times I had no problem with eberle & mps starting in the minors but I am not a seasonticket holder.I have read that most of the seasonticket holders want all 3 in the lineup no matter how they do.the paying fans want the kids to develops together & are willing to live with growing pains as long as we play them.I feel they are the paying customers & most feel they should be played.the new York islanders finally started doing it after years of losing & moderate success(finishing 8th).they had tavares & bailey as their top 2 centres & all the top 6 were young prospects surrounded by some vets.I think the oil should do the same.play the kids in hard minutes.gagner,hemsky,hall with eberle,cogliano,penner as the second line.horcoff,brule,mps as 3rd line Fraser,jones,stortini as 4th.jfj & mcintyre as spares.many of the top 12 can play center & we got a pretty decent 7 dman with a good mix of skill & grit even without souray.I changed my tune because I don't go to many games so I really think my opinion doesn't matter.whatever route they go I'll support the team & will try to make it to a couple of games.I work out of town alot so it's tough to get to games.
ReplyDeleteJoe Strong: Please try to seperate your text, and put spaces after dots. It helps reading.
ReplyDeleteI think its best that the Oil split the kids up on different lines. Its one thing to shelter them from hard minutes but I think we need to not make them a focus on anyline. Putting Hemsky on the 1st and Penner on the 2nd line gives them the shelter they need.
ReplyDelete1st - Hall, Horc, Hemmer
2nd - Penns, Gags, Eberle
3rd - Paajarvi, Cogs, Brule
4th - Jones, Fraser, Storts/Jacques/Comrie
If the opposition wants to focus on Hall, that leaves Hemmer free. Big mistake. If they focus on Ebs, Penner makes them pay. Paajarvi is the most NHL ready of the 3. The 3rd line speed will tear other 3rd liners apart. This is assuming no one gets paired up with Souray in a trade.
I'm on an iPhone & lack computer skills so I just type away....I try but it never let's me space things out the way I want too....sorry
ReplyDelete