Colin McDonald's new contract is an AHL level deal. His AHL resume (and cup of coffee in the show) weren't enough to warrant a two-way deal and we should assume no other NHL team was offering anything more attractive.
In a very real way, the Oilers have said goodbye to the 2003 entry draft. The architect of that draft (Kevin Prendergast) has left the building and his three highest picks that day (Pouliot, McDonald and Jacques) are role players, journeymen or minor leaguers. The Oilers did find useful pieces later in the draft (Stortini, Brodziak) but missed the mark on an exceptional draft year. The peak of McDonald's career is likely to be this:
- 2009/11/29: Colin McDonald netted his first NHL goal in Saturday's 7-3 loss to Vancouver. He made his professional debut on Friday night versus the Sharks in a 5-4 shootout loss. McDonald has been playing on the Oilers' fourth line with Ryan O'Marra and Zack Stortini. (Source: Edmonton Sun)
The Barons are getting some nice things from the free agent wire lately. Ben Ondrus is a big AHL winger, Jake Taylor a solid minor league defenseman, plus the club has added real skill in Brad Moran and Alexandre Giroux. It is reasonable to assume we'll be hearing about a minor league goaltender being signed as well, although they could pluck someone from Europe.
There seems to be some coverage for the Barons in Okla City.
At the big league level, Ryan Rishaug has mentioned the Oilers are talking to Arron Asham. He's a mid-level free agent, but would improve the Oilers retrieval and board-work the moment he signed a contract.
Hugh... Aaron Asham... oh please god no.
ReplyDeleteWe got enough ''tough guys'' for now.
Please bring someone who will be available to play, when it's PK time, not in the box.
Asham-
ReplyDeleteplus- hard to play against. veteran presence. willing to drop the gloves.
minus- 32 year old 4th liner. Doesn't play special teams. Needs sheltered minutes.
Seems like TheFormerCaptainEthanMoreau with better hands and worse legs. He is just a place saver for a year. I feel like we already have this guy and then some with Stortini, Fraser, Jones and JFJ. Just cluttering up an already crowded forward group, unless he is willing to play in the A.
If they have goaltending I think the Barons might actually be a reasonable club this season.
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of Asham and he did play top nine for the Flyers in the playoffs for the most part and did an okay job but as Matt and fpb both mention if we're bringing in a vet forward or two I think they have to be able to PK.
Tambellini is kind of in an odd spot here. He has:
Hall/Horcoff/Hemsky
Penner/Gagner/Brule
Paajarvi/Cogliano/Eberle
Omark
and then your assorted fourth liners. Did I miss anyone?
Now its really early but we know Hall has a spot and I would think that both Paajarvi and Eberle make the club as well. Cogliano is still the odd man out I think.
And there is Omark. He is older and has played pro for years so the reality is he may be the most ready of the bunch.
So do you sign a couple of vets to play in that top nine? They want the kids to earn their spots but if they do then do you move your vets when training camp breaks? Someone mentioned training camp invites. I wonder if they end up going that way.
And I'm glad they signed McDonald, if only for the stash.
ReplyDeleteWe already have more forwards on the depth chart than we have spaces. If Tambi manages to move Cogliano, and Taylor Hall can actually play center, we'd still have extra depth on LW, especially. And Asham plays RW, which is also full up.
ReplyDeleteJust don't see a need to do anything else besides sending Souray and Cogliano to new homes.
My UFA wish list to help at our biggest area of weakness. Defensive depth and PK.
ReplyDeleteMike Weaver
- 2nd pairing guy in STL
- PK specialist (over 3.5 minutes per game)
- can be had for under a million
He is 5'9" so I doubt he will fit into Tambo v.3.0 hard to play against team building plan.
He would be a poetic matched pair with the 6'5" PP specialist Foster.
Do NHL clubs routinely purchase contracts from their AAA clubs if they want to bring up a guy in the org but not on the 50 contract roster? This is fairly routine in baseball.
ReplyDeleteDo NHL clubs routinely purchase contracts from their AAA clubs if they want to bring up a guy in the org but not on the 50 contract roster? This is fairly routine in baseball.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it happens often, but didn't we do it with Linglet last year? One of the AHL veterans we called up, anyway.
"My UFA wish list to help at our biggest area of weakness. Defensive depth and PK.
ReplyDeleteMike Weaver"
If we're going to lose Theo Peckham on waivers I would hope it's for a better player than Weaver.
I think they're set at D, there are six vets plus either Peckham or Chorney. Its likely going to be awful but this is it unless Tambellini gets lucky and picks up a young guy who can play top four (or top six with a ton of upside)
ReplyDeleteWhat we see is what we get.
As for McDonald, it's nice to see somebody stay in the organization. He probably could have went to Europe and made more money so you have to respect him sticking around.
ReplyDeleteSometimes when when you don't have as much success as you might have expected you test your luck with another organization but McDonald seems content grinding out a career with the Oil.
Am I the only one that can't wait to see what type of style/system Renney has in mind for this team? Is it possible to create a team that leaks goals against and loses more than it wins, but also be a fun environment for the kids to develop in? If they keep the current roster it's going to be a very fine line, if possible at all. Does anyone remember what the 05/06 penguins were like?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Strudwick would accept a demotion? Maybe that's been the plan all along.
ReplyDelete1)They wouldn't brodcast it to help him clear waivers. Nor would they ask him to sign a two way for the same reason.
2)The org must realize that his 'skill set' make him perfect for leading (and protecting) their prospects halfway across the continent.
3)They seem to be happy to spend huge dollars down there (thus his one way)
Really, the only conceivable reason he's back is the dressing room 'skills?' and/or the Renney connection.
Does anyone know how the business relationship differs between the Oilers-Barons vs the Oilers-Falcons?
ReplyDeleteWhen I heard the Oilers were moving their Roadrunner franchise to OKC, I presumed that they would have some ownership of the team, but some cursory 'googling' suggests that this is not the case.
Does anyone know the story or have a link to something that explains this?
If we didn't already have Jones, Jaques and Stortini, I'd be all for signing Asham. Right now however, he doesn't fill any of the holes in the roster. He doesn't take face-offs or kill penalties, so I'm not sure why the team is looking at him. Its money that could be better spent on other free agents, and I'd be pissed if they sign him when they weren't even willing to offer a million to sign Rob Neidermyer.
ReplyDeleteI think they're set at D, there are six vets plus either Peckham or Chorney
ReplyDeleteI am not counting Souray, so
1st pair - Gilbert/Whitney
2nd pair - Foster/Smid
3rd pair - Vandermeer/???
Chorney is still on his EL contract so (for the love of Stan and all that is holy) send him to the Barons.
Strudwick is an ideal press box #7 guy. Can play F or D.
Peckham is an RFA. I am unsure of his waiver status. Traktor mentioned he has to clear. If not, he starts in OKC. If so, my 3 press box guys (after dressing 20)would be Struds, BigMac and Peckham.
The sixth D would be another UFA signing such as Weaver or McKee.
Someone, I think it was Bruce, did a count of how many games the 7th D man played on all rosters. My memory is that it was an average of 60. The #8 played 20.
Last year the Oilers got 142 man games from luminaries such as Strudwick (72), Chorney(42), Peckham(15) and Arsene (13). With a cup of coffee for a few others.
Don't tell me this team doesn't need defensive depth.
No one could possibly be as useless, dangerous even, as Moreau was for the last three seasons.
ReplyDeleteJacques strikes me as another (back)injury waiting to happen. These giant sized types screw up their back and it's basically good night.
Interesting how Tambellini did next to nothing for a year and a day, and now he's gone and dropped half the roster. All of a sudden he's Machiavellini, haha.
fpb said:
ReplyDelete"Hugh... Aaron Asham... oh please god no.
We got enough ''tough guys'' for now."
really? like who?
Aaron Asham may be a fourth liner, but he's a fourth liner who doesn't get scratched from a stanley cup finalist. He's a legit NHL player, and is exactly the kind of player this team needed last year.
From Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun:
ReplyDelete"Kuba, a veteran who moves the puck well and is decent defensively, is not a physical player and, with the arrival of Gonchar, is very much expendable. Or redundant, as someone put it Friday. With a cap hit of $3.7 million, the Oilers would be lightening their load in a swap for Souray. Ottawa would have to throw something else into the pot — at least $1.7 million worth of assets, in fact — and the Oilers have room for it, as they are more than $14 million under the cap....Would you trade Kuba, Lee, and maybe a Nick Foligno or a Kuba, Campoli and Ryan Shannon for Souray? Or maybe Kuba, one other player and a draft pick?"
I don't know enough about Kuba to see how he fits with the Oilers. This is the second time I've heard a potential OTT-EDM trade scenario from an Ottawa scribe (Spezza to EDM being the other one). Both times the package back to EDM hasn't seemed to take into consideration the Oilers needs.
What are the AHL regulations in regards to number of veterans? And are the Oilers/Barons there yet, or do they have one or two to go?
ReplyDeleteSpeeds: It's 5 veterans, which I think is based on pro games played (not sure what the exact number is).
ReplyDeleteSeems that all of Giroux, Moran, Ondrus, Petiot, and Taylor would qualify at this point. McDonald?
Possible OKC Lineup as of today:
ReplyDeleteForwards:
Giroux
Moran
Reddox
Vande Velde
Hartikainen
O'Marra
Kytnar
Cornet
Ondrus
McDonald
Marquardt (Stockton?)
Plus any of the kids (MPS, Eberle, Omark) or excess forwards on the big club (Jacques or Jones?).
DMen:
Petry
Petiot
Chorney
Plante
Motin
Taylor
Bendfeld (Stockton?)
Goalies:
? (starter)
Pitton
Quizmaster: Yeah we just NEED another Stortini type of guy.
ReplyDeleteWould have changed a lot of shit if we had a 4th liner who couldn't PK with 200 PIM last year heh?
(Oh shit Ethan Moreau!)
If the oilers sign asham I'm starting to think a couple of the young guns are starting in the ahl unless they have an amazing training camp.if hall stays healthy he's on the team but mps & eberle could be joining omark in the minors.roster without eberle & mps in my projected lineup(1)gagner,hall,hemsky(2)cogliano,penner,brule(3)horcoff,jones,asham(if he is signed)(4)Fraser,stortini,jacques...extras macintyre & ? (O'marra or another vet).the oilers are in no panic but rush these guys.I'd actually rather send them down for the whole year. Our defence is set with(1)Gilbert/Whitney(2)smid/foster(3)Peckham/vandameerwith the extra strudwick. Both strudwick & vandameer are tough tweeners(play both forward & defence).the oilers are going to be tough to play against.if the oilers don't move cogliano then either eberle or mps will take his spot.I'm on favor of building a winner in the minors.we could send a top line of eberle/mps/omark on the farm with o'marra & giroux in the mix & draft pick cornet.those are 6 guys we can play on the top 2 lines in the minors.onbrus,mcdonald,moran add bottom 6 depth down there too.our barons defence is solid with chorney,plante,motin,petry,Taylor & I'm missing someone.pitton & a veteran minor league goalie.
ReplyDeleteFpb -
ReplyDeleteIf your "tough guys" know that Asham is there, they also know that they better play hard to crack the lineup. Asham can't cost much, and whats so wrong with having options when guys get hurt (like Jones) or when they just suck (like JFJ)?
Why is it Aaron Asham = Ethan Moreau?
Quizmaster: Look around, they're already 4 guys who are ''tough'' and can't PK or assume bigger role.
ReplyDelete(JFJ,Stortini,Smac and Jones)
They're already ''Under pressure'' to be in the lineup, and those kind of guys always are anyway.
Asham is just redundant. Options when guys get hurt? No? You don't have to search very far to get a 4th liner who's indisciplined and can't PK.
But a 3rd liner who can PK? You can't find that under a rock in your farm. Better have some guys who can PK y'a know, not just look like clowns who can't play.
Speeds,
ReplyDeleteThe good thing is that Vande Velde, Petry, and Omark all come in with some experience.
Top 9:
Omark (or whoever he beats at camp), Giroux, Moran, Reddox, Ondrus, Vande Velde, McDonald, O'Marra, Hartikainnen
Personally, I'd like one more proven AHL star, which would kick O'Marra to the 4th, or maybe Hatikainnen to Europe.
Of course, they'll be injuries on the the AHL team, too.
Cornet and Kytnar to the ECHL? Or 4th line AHL minutes?
Kris: Why have a farm team if you want to push back the guys you actually need to developp?
ReplyDeleteOndrus is probably as bad as O'marra (And O'marra will probably take another little step forward) so it's arguable O'marra could handle it better.
Smac is an enforcer.
ReplyDeleteJones was a fringe NHL player when we got him and then he got hurt.
JFJ is a fringe player also.
Players are different. You can paint them all with the same brush all you want, but I think Asham is better then all four of the players you mentioned. None of them would of made the Flyers, to put it that way.
He's still redundant.
ReplyDeleteJones got track of being = to Asham without stupid penalties, younger and cheaper.
Smac will stay for whatever reason, and Stortini will also stay.
JFJ is a trainwreck anyway.
Even if we ditch JFJ Asham is still useless.
4 roster spots for ''tough guys'' well no thank you sir.
fpb,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I take your point. But
1.) O'Marra doesn't have a whole of potential to develop at this point. He was seeing time in the ECHL and the 4th line a while ago. He did better last year, but he still looks like a bust.
2.) Ondrus is a little better and more proven as a veteran. 0.22 goals/game over the last three seasons of AHL competition, compared to 0.08 for O'Marra.
You might say that O'marra is younger, but that's my point. O'marra is developing into Ondrus, so I think our AHL team would be better off with Ondrus.
3.) There will be room for all of them when injury hits the AHL and requires NHL guys to be called up.
Remember, Springfield lost Minard for most of the year and that hurt them huge. We don't want to be Giroux and a bunch of rookies. That's a recipe for losses.
Anyway, the main thrust of your point is kind of wrong, IMO. If you fill AHL spots with middling or failing prospects from junior, you're not going to develop anyone and you're going to lose a lot of games: See Springfield Falcons, The.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
ReplyDeleteI know what you mean, but I think when you add players to a group, lesser players get bumped down, which has to be a good thing. Its not like all of them will be sitting on the bench together.
Kris: HugH? Sorry? Wrong? Look at the Bulldogs not much vets there.
ReplyDeleteLook at your lineup, you're barely even trying to developp something
Omark (Already somewhat a minor league veteran)
Giroux (Veteran)
Moran (Veteran)
Reddox (Veteran)
Ondrus (Veteran)
Vande Velde,
McDonald, (Veteran)
O'Marra,
Hartikainnen
Out of your top 9 you would only be developping 3 guys and now you want to push them back?
Wtf is your farm for?!
Moreover, I think what we're seeing in the new NHL is that you don't worry about developing and drafting depth players like O'Marra, Stone, Potulny, GlenX, etc. You sign those guys for a song once they've developed or trade a low round pick for them etc. (The supply is greater than the demand, which keeps the price down.)
ReplyDeleteIf one of your picks develops into a depth forward, that's great, but you don't waste resources of any kind on developing those guys.
IMO anyway.
Kris: So we should Flush VDV and O'marra and simply let our AHL team play veteran with no room to improve?
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry but that's even more non-sensical than trying to developp a depth guy.
fpv,
ReplyDeleteJesus Christ, why do you have to argue like a whiny 5 year old. "Huh, Sorry, Wrong" It puts out a pissy attitude. Grow up.
1. You go with one or two middling prospects at a time in the top 9 when the club is healthy. If your rookies are absolute blue chippers (say MPS) then you can have as many as you want.
Remember, if you start with 2 middling prospects, you get more with injuries.
In terms of age, I'd say you should expect the average age of your forwards to turn out to be around 25. See Hershey, Bears.
You're like Gregor when he was 5.
ReplyDelete"YOU ARE WRONG"
Fun way to argue.
"we should Flush VDV"
ReplyDeletesigh... Straw Person.
Look it up.
@fpb
ReplyDeleteyou're talking about something different completely.
you want a PK specialist that can play on the 3rd line. this is OBVIOUSLY not asham.
asham is a guy you sign to replace JFJ in the lineup when we let him become a FA after his arbitration, or when he is sent to the AHL.
Asham represents a "real" NHL player, which we've had a huge shortage of lately.
asham - fraser - stortini
would be a much superior line that
JFJ - fraser - stortini
this is a move to solidify needs on the 4th, for toughness and NHL games played. it's a very different discussion than the one you're trying to turn it into, which is our 3rd line, which i think we all agree will be centered by Horcoff in a similar fashion to how last year ended.
''Anyway, the main thrust of your point is kind of wrong, IMO.''
ReplyDeleteStop whining damit!. (Hugh)
Why not procure actual talent from the CHL or NCAA? Instead of just filling it up with guys we know won't do shit?
fpb: Hamilton is an unfair comparison to OKC. An established organization compared to a new one doesn't help at all. There are two priorities to having an AHL franchise: (1) the business side and (2) the developmental side.
ReplyDeleteFor a successful franchise you need a successful team, especially in a U.S. city.
Kris: You just SAID it's pratically useless to give roster spots to depth guys because the demand is lower than offer.
ReplyDeleteVDV IS a depth guy.
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ReplyDelete@fpb
ReplyDeleteyou're aware that you can have "debates" like this at other places like Oiler's Nation and HFboard, right?
you never bring stats, never bring any info other than "hunchs" and "broad declarations"...there's never any background info that makes getting into a net argument with you any fun.
"my dick's bigger" "no, mine is".
most the time, you're the opposite of a "stats blog"...
Jfry: Cause your had?
ReplyDeleteI never said Asham wasn't a good 4th liner, only that I tough the Oil wouldn't depart from theyr actual 4th liners anyway. Hence, there'S a cluster with 4th liners.
I mean, I guess
''See the Hamilton Bulldogs''
ANd ''See the Hershey Bears'' has a truckload of difference right?
Anyway fuck that, I got Baseball to play. Anything here contradictive to what's accepted as truth is ''Unprooven'' and ''Whiny'' and ''HF Shit''.
ReplyDeleteThat's huge Rhetoric BS. Stop getting on your damn Horses because someone thinks differently.
which i think we all agree will be centered by Horcoff in a similar fashion to how last year ended.
ReplyDeleteNo, we don't.
"We" see Horcoff centering Hemsky and a LW not named JF Jacques & out-scoring the other team's best.
Just like the 08-09 season.
[Before going on IR, Hemsky was point-a-game with Horcoff]
The reason for last season's Checking Line structure was the complete lack of decent wingers.
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ReplyDeletemr. D
ReplyDeleteperhaps i spoke too loosely...with the "we"
i don't think horcoff was put on the checking line because of a lack of good wingers, but because of a lack of good centers on the team. at the end of the season he was in a "containment" situation with pisani and moreau and all played quite well and actually did a decent job of freeing up some of the other lines for softer minutes.
i would rather send horcoff out to shut down players than worry about him being an outperformer. if he can outperform that's great, but i'd be just as happy to accept that he's our Madden/bindamour/etc
i think he's better suited to those hard minutes and huge PK time, rather than forcing him into PP/PK and outperform. Give the easier minutes to a line with some kids. The beautiful part about Horcoff is that he has enough offensive moxie that other teams can't take him for granted like some other shut down players in the league.
I like horcoff plenty, but i think we're a better team when he has a straight forward plan.
There was a quote from Peca when he played here (i can't find it on google right now) that said something along the lines of:
"the first half of the year i was told to do a lot, play PP, score and when i came to the rink i didn't know what to focus on. now, when I come to the rink as a checking centre, i have a game plan and a focus. I have a mental set and I'm a better player."
it wouldn't bother me at all if Horcoff grew into that role Peca describes. I think it holds tremendous value on any team (third line of Hossa and Sharp during the SCF comes to mind).
Once the kids mature, i believe that will be his role, so why not get into it now. Sure he can be more, but I think he can be an average 1st line center or one of the league's premier shut down players. both have extreme value to a franchise and right now we have no one else in the 3rd slot, but we can slot gags into the top line with hemsky and penner for a PVP role if you want.
JfrY: I think you're spot on. He's there to help the kids developp by taking a wide load. Not play with the best. It's reconstruction.
ReplyDeleteOKC signs McDonald: Nothing wrong with it. He's likely a career AHLer at best now, and the org should have a pretty good idea as to his work and lifestyle habits. Out of all the guys in the McDonald mold that they've acquired by draft or trade over the years, I have the most hope for Vande Velde.
ReplyDeleteAaron Asham: Would not be my choice, but the Oilers might be exploring that option defensively after JFJ filed for arbitration.
The UFA who I would be trying to sign is Jeff Halpern. PKer, solid defensively, RH shot, plays C or W, decent skating, not small, vet leadership presence, all for what is likely a reasonable price.
I think Horcoff's role will change over the next couple of seasons, but the timeline is reliant on Gagner's development.
ReplyDeleteRenney can move Gagner up to the 1PP right away (if he can play with Hemsky, something we haven't seen yet) but is not Horcoff's equal at EVs imo.
It is going to be a process, and we should be thankful Horcoff is still on the team. If he's healthy again, I don't see the Oilers being close to a lottery team.
Gagner seems to prefer the half wall on the PP and is more of a distributor than a sniper. That's not to say he can't shoot, but vision and smarts are his greatest assets.
ReplyDeleteHe is similar to Hemsky in these regards, and I doubt that combining the two on the 1PP would work well.
Hall however is a better finisher than Horc or Gags and will likely be fed some sweet 1PP time in the bid to sell hope to the fans, and to give the kid confidence and develop him offensively.
I can see Renney's best 1PP option being Penner, Hall and Hemsky. Especially if we're planning on keeping Penner and Hemsky happy, and their value high if a trade is required at a later point.
PP PTS/60
ReplyDeleteGagner 5.74
Hemsky 4.71
Horcoff 2.80
Horcoff will be lucky to crack the 2nd PP unit never mind the 1st.
As for EV, if Edmonton is interested in a line that forces the other team to play tough minutes then Horcoff is the 3rd or 4th best option depending on if you count Cogliano as a center.
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ReplyDeleteHorcoff is the 3rd or 4th best option at EV.
ReplyDelete1. Gagner
2. Fraser?
3. Cogliano
4. Horcoff
We have seen the difference between Horcoff with and without Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteWe have seen the difference between Cogliano with and without Penner.
We have seen the difference between Brule with and without Penner.
If you want to shelter the kids then play them with good players.
Look at the difference between Stamkos the 1st 20 games in the NHL when Melrose thought he was protecting Stamkos playing him with slugs against slugs. Stamkos struggled and the coach was fired. Put him with St Louis against "real players" and his skill took over.
The only thing putting Horcoff between Hemsky and Penner is going to do is protect Horcoff.
kris:
ReplyDeleteBrule.
Scored more EV goals last year than Getzlaf, Malkin, Spezza ect..
Not that EV goals matter at EV.
Also had over 52% on the dot.
Who hired these folks?
ReplyDeleteIs there a GM of the Barons or a new Assistant GM of the Oilers?
Tambo without a press conference?
Or is it "Sparky's" new job?
@trak
ReplyDeletewith our current roster, how would your lines break down?
Anyone arguing that Cogliano or Fraser is a better option than Horcoff at ES needs to remove their head from their ass. Even arguing Gagner over him is still a pretty big stretch.
ReplyDeleteLast year was terrible, but the guy has a track record of outscoring the best when playing with competent wingers (and it's not his fault we were terribly deficient in this area last season). And the object of the game is to score more than your opponent, with more weight being given to if you can do such a thing against the best the opposition has to offer.
Horcoff is this team's best all around center. Period.
Off-topic: my girlfriend just suggested mentally replacing all mentions of "roster" on this page with "rooster" (sort of like the wand/wang transposition in the Harry Potter books). My favourite so far is Magnus's observation that Aaron Asham doesn't fill any of the holes in our current rooster.
ReplyDeleteCarry on.
Hunter's observation that Tambellini has gone and dropped half the rooster was also pretty good.
ReplyDeleteWell I like our rooster makeup, and that's all there is to say about that.
ReplyDeleteFPB: Your arguments don't address the issues and you've stated them over and over. We get it, you don't think Horcoff is the answer.
ReplyDeleteWe don't agree with you. The Oilers need to give Gagner (and others) time to develop into that role.
Horcoff is still the best option.
FPB: Why not? I've simply replied to the ''Track Record'' thing, while I think the stats show he has 1 season out of 4 that was in the range of N1 centers. The other one where he was injured, he had a shooting percentage trough the roof.
ReplyDeleteGagner's going into his 4th year.
Developp in what role? I suggest Horcoff should handle the toughs on the 3rd line, while Gagner plays ragdoll with Hemsky and Penner.
How can you expect Gagner to developp into your N1 center if you don't play him with your best players?
Gagner had very impressive PP numbers, and I think that would greatly improve his odds to see Horcoff's minutes taken away and given to him.
FPB: I agree Gagner makes more sense on the PP, although as mentioned above he isn't a good match with Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteThose two players (Gagner and Hemsky) haven't shown well together, and so for that reason my suggestion has been:
Gagner-Penner-xxxxx
Horcoff-xxxx-Hemsky
But I'd run the Horcoff line against the tough opposition. Gagner isn't ready, it is going to take some time.
LT: Well I think that because we're in reconstruction, it permits us to see if other younger players could play well with Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteI think Brule could do a fine job, as he probably has the best shot on the club (Apart from Souray). Or Hall or whatever.
And I think we should probably get that going, because, down the road, when this team is going to compete, Horcoff will probably not be able to play top 6 minutes anymore. (Or simply won't be the best option).
But as for Gagner... Didn't they played on a stretch with Penner until Hemsky got injured? That didn't look so bad. The bad episode was more on TC. That led Gagner to the 4th line 0_0.
Hunter's observation that Tambellini has gone and dropped half the rooster was also pretty good.
ReplyDeleteSteve Tambellini's drooping rooster.
Compare & Contrast:
ReplyDelete“Melrose thought he was protecting Stamkos playing him with slugs against slugs. Stamkos struggled and the coach was fired. Put him with St Louis against "real players" and his skill took over. “
“We have seen the difference between Horcoff with and without Hemsky....The only thing putting Horcoff between Hemsky and Penner is going to do is protect Horcoff.”
Mr Debakey: Well no in both cases, playing the guy with better players comes to protecting him.
ReplyDeleteBut Stamkos was developping, Horcoff isn't.
I am not so sure that years rooster is something to crow about, but it is younger and perhaps a little cocky which may be a good thing. Its all part of the plan hatched by Tambellini now that he rules the roost.
ReplyDeleteThe 08/09 rooster became too risk adverse with MacT pecking at every little thing, and the 09/10 rooster ran around like their heads had just been cut off. Quinn didn't help as it seemed that every time he opened his beak it was to carve up one of his own which only contributed to the fowl mood of the whole rooster.
I hope that Renney can hatch a plan to bring the rooster together. He may need to egg the veterans on a bit and even let some of them stew in the press box while he incubates the younger players against softer opposition.
Its times like this that I am sad that they let Pouliot go...
Bookie,
ReplyDeleteWow.
Awesome.
Now that Lowetide has abandoned this blog, the barbarians are appearing at the gates.
ReplyDeleteHunter - sadly the city was sacked a while ago, truth be told
ReplyDeleteAhh, that was pretty sly, Pat.
ReplyDeleteGOOOO SPAAAAIN!
As for the rooster, I'd prefer to trade Coghorn and start the season with:
HALL HORC HEMS
PENN GAGN BRUL
COMR HALP PISA
JONE FRAS STOR
With the intention of pumping and dumping Comrie and Brule to make room for the rest of the kids by the halfway point of the season.
But the above rooster obviously isn't going to happen. There is no intention to re-sign Pisani, and it appears little effort directed toward Comrie, so we are going to run with the kids from Day 1.
But we're going to have a PK this year that's going to make us weep, if Halpern or a Primeau isn't brought in.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI like a first power play unit of
ReplyDeletePaajarvi-Penner-Hemsky (with Whitney and Foster)
And a second power play unit of
Hall-Gagner-Eberle (with Gilbert and somebody).
Brule.
ReplyDelete1. Looks way better on the wing. Just an opinion.
2. Obviously, he played much easier comp. than anyone you mention, or Horcoff.
This is a good example of what you do; you cherry pick boxcar stats with no mention of things like qual comp., zone start, or PDO. And as we've learned again and again and again, stats without context are misleading. (The idea that Brule is at all comparable to Malkin, is a good example of how misleading.)
Qual. of comp. and zonestart, and a sh% which deiates from career avg. matter to ES goal production. If Horcoff were used like Brule, his production would go up. If vice versa, Brule's would go down.
4. You say you can hide Cogliano or Brule's defensive weaknesses by playing either with Penner- Hemsky. But it's also probable that PVP lines will kill that line. That is, suppose Brule brings more offensively. (An assumption) But that line may give up more goals with Brule on it and they may give up more goals than they get back in increased offense.
5. What we've learned from guys like Vic and Tyler, is that hockey is a game of puck possession. If you can get the puck going the other direction and win the shots and chances battle, you're much more likely to win the game. Horcoff is proven to help in that end far more than the rest.
And You're assuming that Cogiano and Brule hae more offensive firepower than Horcoff. You forget about Horcoff's good offensive seasons playing with Pensky and assume that he can't regain that form.
You also assume that Brule and Cogliano would be able to keep up their offense against tougher comp.
It's all assumptions dressed up rhetorically as knowledge, spiced with stats with no context.
I know, I know, this is what you do.
A simpler way of putting all that:
ReplyDeleteThe other teams best ar going to play against Penner and Hemsky.
So you need to surround them -on one line or two- with as many guys who are proven to be able to create more chances and shots than they give up, i.e. who are proven to win the possession battle and thus the +/- battle.
Horcoff is such a player and has been for years. He played that role in the cup run. Hopefully Brule is too, but there's no evidence to say that he is.
----
Actually, all of this raises interesting questions about line matching and how much even the best creation of lines and line matching adds to a team. It could be that all this line blending and line matching is a zero sum game. I doubt that, but it's a possibility.
Kris: Penner did just fine with other players than Horcoff, in fact i wouldn't be surprised there's a case he did better without him.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we ''need'' to absolutely do a definitive PVP line. We're rebuilding god damit. It's time to play kids where they can be good, and I don't think anyone here can argue that playing with Hemsky or Penner won't help you. (Cogliano, Brulé, Gagner and the gang all improved with Penner, the only one who remained suckass is JFJ).
As for the trackrecord with Pensky, well he's not supposed to always have super wingers. That's not a standard.
Anyway if we check up his stats, he got 2 55 points season, which is good for a 2nd center. Two where he went PPG or close, with one at a shooting % of 18.
Let's say that season he gets his average of 10%. He falls down to
12-29-41 in 50 games. Which puts him in the ranges of his other 55-60 points season.
Sure he did good in those seasons, but apart from the cup run, it's nothign out of this world.
My point is: The step between what he can offer this year, and what Gagner can offer, has become shorter, hence, the separation doesn't create an immediate need for him to be on PVP. (Which isn't even sure to be run, well at least on half the games).
I keep thinking the first two lines are probably pretty much set in Renney's mind. The 3/4 aren't but reasonable guesses can certainly be made. From that, and things like lowetide's depth chart on ON we can start making projections about what sort of team the 2010-2011 Oilers will be. The phrase fun but mediocre comes to mind. The goal, I am certain will be to shelter the kids as much as possible which sort of forces our lines into certain configurations.
ReplyDeleteFor example, the first line will be Horcoff centering Hemsky and Hall. Why?
It has nothing to do with us playing PVP, or Hall needing to be pushed into the limelight. It is just that 1L is where Hall is most likely to be sheltered. Horcoff and Hemsky are going to draw the other team's best defence or their PVP lines. If the opposition rolls out the shut down line then Hall is less of a defensive liability than he'd be agains the 1st or 2nd line on other teams. If the opposition rolls PVP then Hall will blossom on offense. Will he personally struggle to out perform, yeah it would be a miracle if he didn't get killed, but those other two guys may make up for it. Like it or not, the stats show that healthy Hemsky and Horcoff have an edge on their opposition. If Hall gives some back they may still be able to turn it into a saw off. (So we are are at zero in terms of plus minus when they come off the ice).
The next line is going to be Penner, Gagner and somebody. That somebody gets seriously easy minutes. First, the other team is either meeting you with their own soft minutes line or their energy line. Penner and Gagner are the definition of puck possession. Penner is a big outplay and if Gagner is going to get it and really take off (and the stats do seem to show he is getting better defensively) then this is likely the year. So once again, the third guy is sheltered. Um, sheltered right wing slot. I'm sure we can all see that sooner or later that most protected of spots is going to go to Eberle. Based on the work of Penner and Gagner last year they should also be able to saw off. (So we are still at zero.)
I am with many of you up to here, though I get some think those years of Hemsky and Horcoff playing together and out performing are all just some sort of statistical apparition. Yes, they aren't like any other first line in hockey. On the other hand they can keep their heads above water against the very best opponents so who are we to judge them on style points.
It is after that it all gets murky. I would try a new kind of line, FVS. That stands for fast versus slow. Cogs, Brule, MP(S) would have going for them that whatever else they wouldn't be slow. Nobody in the league would be able to match them speed for speed at all three positions.
Other teams first lines would feed on them for sure. On the other hand they'd also spend part of the night backing up, at which they might not be so good. If the three guys could each kick in 15 goals (EVS) they'd probably stay within twenty goals of their opposition. Which would be a moral victory. (So now we are minus 20 for the season).
The fourth line has two guys, Fraser and Stortini, who can and do outperform. The third guy, as things stand, is going to be dead weight. It still isn't unreasonable to think we won't fall behind much more than 5 goals over the course of the season. Maybe Giroux actually sticks and takes this job, which would be a bit weird given his resume but hey, stranger things have happened. In which case we probably outperform modestly.
My point is, we aren't as bad as everybody keeps saying. This is already a better team than last year. On the other hand we are still miles from the playoffs. I am sure there are a few moves ST is working on. Those moves will tell us a great deal about whether we are trying to make the playoffs any time soon.
I keep thinking the first two lines are probably pretty much set in Renney's mind. The 3/4 aren't but reasonable guesses can certainly be made. From that, and things like lowetide's depth chart on ON we can start making projections about what sort of team the 2010-2011 Oilers will be. The phrase fun but mediocre comes to mind. The goal, I am certain will be to shelter the kids as much as possible which sort of forces our lines into certain configurations.
ReplyDeleteFor example, the first line will be Horcoff centering Hemsky and Hall. Why?
It has nothing to do with us playing PVP, or Hall needing to be pushed into the limelight. It is just that 1L is where Hall is most likely to be sheltered. Horcoff and Hemsky are going to draw the other team's best defence or their PVP lines. If the opposition rolls out the shut down line then Hall is less of a defensive liability than he'd be agains the 1st or 2nd line on other teams. If the opposition rolls PVP then Hall will blossom on offense. Will he personally struggle to out perform, yeah it would be a miracle if he didn't get killed, but those other two guys may make up for it. Like it or not, the stats show that healthy Hemsky and Horcoff have an edge on their opposition. If Hall gives some back they may still be able to turn it into a saw off. (So we are are at zero in terms of plus minus when they come off the ice).
The next line is going to be Penner, Gagner and somebody. That somebody gets seriously easy minutes. First, the other team is either meeting you with their own soft minutes line or their energy line. Penner and Gagner are the definition of puck possession. Penner is a big outplay and if Gagner is going to get it and really take off (and the stats do seem to show he is getting better defensively) then this is likely the year. So once again, the third guy is sheltered. Um, sheltered right wing slot. I'm sure we can all see that sooner or later that most protected of spots is going to go to Eberle. Based on the work of Penner and Gagner last year they should also be able to saw off. (So we are still at zero.)
I am with many of you up to here, though I get some think those years of Hemsky and Horcoff playing together and out performing are all just some sort of statistical apparition. Yes, they aren't like any other first line in hockey. On the other hand they can keep their heads above water against the very best opponents so who are we to judge them on style points.
It is after that it all gets murky. I would try a new kind of line, FVS. That stands for fast versus slow. Cogs, Brule, MP(S) would have going for them that whatever else they wouldn't be slow. Nobody in the league would be able to match them speed for speed at all three positions.
Other teams first lines would feed on them for sure. On the other hand they'd also spend part of the night backing up, at which they might not be so good. If the three guys could each kick in 15 goals (EVS) they'd probably stay within twenty goals of their opposition. Which would be a moral victory. (So now we are minus 20 for the season).
The fourth line has two guys, Fraser and Stortini, who can and do outperform. The third guy, as things stand, is going to be dead weight. It still isn't unreasonable to think we won't fall behind much more than 5 goals over the course of the season. Maybe Giroux actually sticks and takes this job, which would be a bit weird given his resume but hey, stranger things have happened. In which case we probably outperform modestly.
My point is, we aren't as bad as everybody keeps saying. This is already a better team than last year. On the other hand we are still miles from the playoffs. I am sure there are a few moves ST is working on. Those moves will tell us a great deal about whether we are trying to make the playoffs any time soon.
Linnaeus,
ReplyDeleteOther teams run out their best defensive pairing vs. Hemsky.
Hall playing against a top NHL Dman is the opposite of sheltered.
That is also the reason why I really like:
X-10-83
27-89-X
Because that way either Penner or Hesmky get to see a 2nd pairing, probably Penner, and that's a good thing.
Be interesting to see what Renney does.
He might go Horpensky and try win 2-1 every night.
He might go Horpensky and try win 2-1 every night.
ReplyDeleteWe don't have the defensive corps to pull that off.
Sorry for earlier double post. new operating system that doesn't like blogger at all.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy, I think you and I would disagree on the definition of sheltered minutes and next years Oilers is all. If you play with two guys who are good enough to play in the all star game and deserve to be there, both out performs, you are sheltered in the following ways:
1. On the road you are not likely to see the other teams power lines but rather their shutdown line and defence pairings. Is it heavy going, sure. On the other hand it isn't that hard work in your own end.
2. At home you may well be out against the other teams #1 line and top O-D. Your defensive responsibility goes way up. However, you are going to see some daylight once you get possession of the puck.
3. Your linemates aren't JFJ. If you thread a sweet pass across the ice they will be there. If you make a defensive miscue they will bail you out some of the time. If you get open they will get you the puck. That one guy really likes to dangle with the puck so if you learn to hit the holes late on a shift you are going to get some garbage goals.
Yes, 2R on a line with Penner and Gagner would be even more sheltered but Hall can't play there. He isn't better than Penner or Gagner at this stage. Expecting him to play 3rd line would expose him to checking some of the best players in the league. Not sheltered. 4th line his ice time and linemates will both suck the life out of a thoroughbred like Hall. He needs to run. So where else are you planning to stick him?
WG: Having better teamates is more important than lesser opponents.
ReplyDeleteLet Hall be with Hemsky and Penner. That should only help him.
(Plus you've got the first change at home)
linnaeus: I'm sorry Shawn Horcoff at the All-Star game?
ReplyDeleteHeh.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteI said "try" :)
Linnaeus,
We'll have to disagree.
You run 10's line aginst the tough and let Hall play on a more sheltered line. Based on experience if it isn't Penner MP(S) is the next best choice.
Fpb,
: Having better teamates is more important than lesser opponents.
You're guilty of just pulling stuff out of your ass again.
You should put that statement into some context.
So Hemsky would score less playing with a rookie and against a line of rookies than playing with Penner against the Sedin's and a 1st pair D?
Linnaeus,
ReplyDeleteTo be clear I meant Penner and MP(S) are probably the top two LW on the team based on experience.
As the ro(o)ster stands I would put these line out: (from toughest comp to easiest)
MP-10-83
27-89-67
Jones-Fras-Storts
Hall-13-Eberle
But I don't think the ro(o)ster will be this in 2 months.
I think, just out of size considerations (and past performance to a certain degree), we're likely to see Penner with Gagner this season, considering our new found plethora of LWs.
ReplyDeleteIf someone could disillusion me of this notion, I'm willing to listen.
I guess respect has left the building.
ReplyDelete