The Edmonton Oilers signed Devan Dubnyk last night, 2-year deal at $800,000 per season. There's already a variety of reaction (notably here, here and here) out there, with some interesting interpretation.
Tyler suggests "it’s another nail in JDD’s coffin" while Scott Reynolds says "and thus the Oilers will have Jeff Deslauriers signed, sealed and delivered to Oklahoma City, so long as Khabibulin is ready to start the year. That is unless the Oilers go to the arbitrator suggesting a salary they can walk away from if it's awarded."
Michael Speidel says "the main problem here is you've created a favorable comparable in arbitration for Deslauriers. If I'm JDD's agent, I don't think I need to work very hard to show that (a) Edmonton thinks Deslauriers is better, since they gave him the majority of starts last year after Khabibulin went down and (b) Deslauriers had a better performance last season than Dubnyk, by whatever measure you want to use (Wins, starts, SV%, SO) in the best environment possible for a direct comparison - the same team."
I think all of that is true, and that the Oilers probably signed Dubnyk to a 2-year deal at decent dollars so that they have the option of sending him down should Renney prefer JDD. A team taking on Dubnyk will have that second season to deal with, and that may be enough to scare off interest. After all, there are other more experienced and established options available to NHL teams.
The fact that the Oilers are not pursuing those veteran, free agent options is a "tell" in regard to how serious the club is about 10-11. They're working on a building, and believe Dubnyk or Deslauriers could be their "goalie of the future." So far, I don't see any reason to believe they've settled on Dubnyk as the answer. If they had, why not unload JDD before the arbitration process?
No. I suspect we'll see all three goalies in camp (unless the Russian can't make it) and anoter "saw him good" moment will win the day.
But DD would have to clear waivers to be sent down no?
ReplyDeleteAs would JDD.
ReplyDeleteI'm having trouble seeing the issue here? Even if the Oilers believe DD is their goalie of the future surely until NK legal issues are sorted JDD is useful? They sign him to the same deal. If and when NK is fully back(no pun intended) Send JDD down to the minors... Some team takes a flier on him worst case scenario Oilers are on the hop for $400,000... So what? Were not spending to the last penny of the cap anyways... This is a 3-4+ project to get back to the Stanley Cup final. I'm having trouble seeing any major concern... Besides DD is the better goalie prospect IMHO.
ReplyDeleteThis smells like an AHL goalie signing to me, I think that the Oilers feel DD would sail through waivers on his way to OK City. Khabby is the man (if not in the hoosegow) with JDD on the bench, but when the vertebrea start rubbing together this contracts puts us where we were last year, which, as you say, is just fine with the Org. for 10-11.
ReplyDeleteIF we send either DD or JDD down to the AHL and they clear waivers, wouldn't they need to clear re-entry waivers if we bring them back up? From that perspective, isn't a waiver eligible goalie a pretty poor choice as insurance, unless you're going to keep him on the NHL roster?
ReplyDeleteWhy not trade DD to the Hawks for Niemi?
ReplyDeleteadmiral: The issue for me is the same one it has been for years. MAKE UP YOUR MIND! The Oilers just flushed about 10 small forwards who were here because they couldn't decide on them and it eventually sent them to 30th place.
ReplyDeleteI prefer DD, but if they want JDD instead then work on finding a market for another guy. Or, better yet, sign an NHL veteran goalie and send one of the kids and Khabibulin through waivers.
"Or, better yet, sign an NHL veteran goalie and send one of the kids and Khabibulin through waivers."
ReplyDeleteZactly. Since both JDD and DD are waiver eligible, the arbitration arg gets less relevant no? If the ruling for JDD is unfavourable, send him down and see who else thinks highly of him?
This smells like an AHL goalie signing to me, I think that the Oilers feel DD would sail through waivers on his way to OK City.
ReplyDeleteCarey Price: has never produced a 8 straight game span of .923 Save % in the NHL Devan Dubnyk has.
Yeah you send the team Canada goalie to the minors.
Dryl - I don't think that's how arbitration works.
ReplyDeleteAfter arbitration, we do not have his rights to be able to send him down.
We have to sign him to the contract awarded (then we could send him down) or walk and he becomes a free agent.
Lowetide...I think that they could be given a bit of slack here with the DUI on NK? It doesnt allow them to make any concrete moves, while they are awaiting final outcome.. Personally I believe for this very reason they should have the option of nulling NK contract(another topic). But in the mean time they may very well of "made up their minds" here. Its possible that DD is their man. But with the NK issues they would be remissed not to hang onto JDD. Maybe DD and JDD start the year with the club when NK is in prison? When NK returns, possibly JDD's value has risen and can be traded for anything of value? True they need to make up their mind. But maybe they have? They're just not telling everyone.
ReplyDeleteSo on another interesting note, the Hawks are facing some fun decisions, and on espn there is a rumour about Sharp being available to clear cap space. Now i love Sharp, but I doubt he is moved. Within the rumour they mention that Reasoner could be moved for nothing to clear some salary space. Would we want Reasoner back? All his friends are gone, but he's exactly what we need. Looks like it would take a mid level pick or minor league prospect. Getting Reasoner makes a lot of sense. Maybe Reasoner for JDD? Gets the Hawks a cheap backup, and we get our 3rd line centre for a player we don't want.
ReplyDeleteAs another of the Oilers bloggers pointed out, a higher reward from the arbitrator could actually be good for the Oilers. I'm not sure Tamby is this sly, BUT since teams are only able to walk away from a player if the contract is OVER 1.3 million, if the Oilers want to cut JD loose, then it's in their favour for him to get more than that. So, as the other site pointed out, you coul dhave a scenario where the player is asking for a deal UNDER 1.3 and the team is offering one OVER 1.3. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteI think that the org. is leaning towards DD anyhow. That WC invite was a tell. Messier goes to the Oilers and says 'hey I want to take one of your kids', he's going to take the guy they recommend.
ReplyDeleteAs for this fall who knows what comes to pass, this whole legal fiasco has them in limbo. Good news is there are still plenty of NHL vets out there looking for work.
I think we're going to see 3 goaltenders this year too.. well.... we'll see JDD and DD for sure. I still have (false) hopes that Khabibulin will somehow be cut loose due to (hopefully) being in jail for the start of the season. I can't see that happening, and I can't see the Oilers tearing up his contract even if that did happen, but a guy can dream.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, neither of JDD and Dubnyk have shown anything to make me believe that either of them are the "goalie of the future." I think at best, they're the "goalie we're stuck with", on par with the Conklin/Markkanen duo.
I don't want to beat a dead horse too much, but it's one area that Tambellini has failed miserably in and I don't foresee getting any better so long as Khabibulin is still on contract.
As another of the Oilers bloggers pointed out, a higher reward from the arbitrator could actually be good for the Oilers. I'm not sure Tamby is this sly, BUT since teams are only able to walk away from a player if the contract is OVER 1.3 million, if the Oilers want to cut JD loose, then it's in their favour for him to get more than that. So, as the other site pointed out, you coul dhave a scenario where the player is asking for a deal UNDER 1.3 and the team is offering one OVER 1.3. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteUm, if the Oilers wanted to walk away from him, wouldn't they just have not qualified him?
I'm very torn about next year right now in terms of whether I'd prefer a desperate run for 8th or something more like how last year was for the Isles where the kids had a big role, they played (at least through my vague recollection of box scores what seemed like) an exciting style, and ended up back in the lottery.
ReplyDeleteIt's times like these I really wish the boys played in the East so that we could do both.
That WC invite was a tell. Messier goes to the Oilers and says 'hey I want to take one of your kids', he's going to take the guy they recommend.
ReplyDeleteWhen I throw out little comments. the facts around them should be obvious. WC Invite. Who was the best canadian goalie in the league the last 6th of the season. DD. Was not even close.
Do you think he gets worse?
ReplyDeleteDeano,
ReplyDeletesorry bout that, i did mean sign him to the deal after arbitration. Maybe not the best use of $$$ to send him down cuz you don't like the ruling, but we do need a goalie in OK.
Yeah, what admiralmark said.
ReplyDeleteIt also could simply be a matter of DD being more reasonable that has led to his deal first. He has less negotiating power given his limited number of games and less attractive save %.
I think the Oilers will be happy to go with either Bulin/ DD or DD/ JDD. Bulin's health and legal issues will be the determining factors on which combo it is.
If the current crop of rookies turn out to be as good as advertised, it's not inconceivable that the playoffs beckon.
ReplyDeleteWhile a perpetual desperate 8th place fight seems pointless, when taken in context of several gifted young players rapidly developing, vs past years which featured overperforming untalented players(providing opening round fodder for the top teams), suddenly a highly positive future beckons.
What Oilers don't need is losing their remaining good vets, then replacing them with a production line of kids who end up being routinely slaughtered year after year, like CBJ/Atlanta/Panthers. If these guys are in fact good enough to make the grade, the worst possible thing is to trash their confidence in a dubious quest for more high draft picks.
I was thinking the same thing you were, LT. It's two years, a one way contract, and $100k - $200k more than he should be getting. It's been constructed to let him pass through waivers if needed.
ReplyDeleteI think the JDD contract is a non issue here. They'll likely overpay him as well for the same reasons.
Lowetide, you stated on your last post that with a
ReplyDelete(RH C who can PK and play tough minutes plus a quality veteran on RW) and a settled goaltending situation would make this team an outstanding candidate for 8th in the western conference.
With the current moves, or lack there of, is this showing the management's philosophy for the team? Roll the dice with what you have (and possibly get a higher pick next year) instead of aiming for a potential playoff roster?
to be honest, i don't think either JDD or DD are anything great! they both make me wish the Oilers had taken, and appologies to Curtis Hamilton, highly rated goalie Calvin Pickard when they had a chance!
ReplyDeleteCarey Price: has never produced a 8 straight game span of .923 Save % in the NHL Devan Dubnyk has.
ReplyDeleteThis has the admirable distinction of being both a) utterly irrelevant and b) not true.
Anon: Yes. The Oilers will tell us more in the next few weeks (if they sign Dominic Moore and Denis Grebeshkov they're attempting to make a playoff run) but so far the handling of the goaltending tells us they're not trying to get the max from what free agency is offering this summer.
ReplyDeleteAnd for the record, I don't think that is a bad thing. But they need to stay the course if they're going to do it, and that should include offloading Khabibulin.
So far, I don't see any reason to believe they've settled on Dubnyk as the answer. If they had, why not unload JDD before the arbitration process?
ReplyDeleteIf you're right, why isn't JDD signed yet? I'll bet he'd snap up the contract that Dubnyk just took in a cocaine heartbeat.
The reason not to unload JDD before arbitration is that you aren't certain about Khabibulin being back and (inexplicably) you figure he's a useful part of a tandem with DD if it comes to that.
Maybe this has been discussed before at length, but does anyone have an idea of just how easy/hard it would be to void Khabbi's contract if he's convicted of a felony but doesn't serve significant jail time?
ReplyDeleteI'm just thinking about the Gilbert Arenas situation in the NBA, and there was a lot of talk then regarding how it would still be an enormous fight with the union and his lawyers if the Wizards moved to void the deal.
Extreme DUI is a misdemeanor in AZ.
ReplyDeleteIt would have to be upgrades to Aggravated DUI to be a felony.
18 games with starter + 2 backups = 30th place
ReplyDeleteDRUNK BACK SURGERY + 2 backups = 31st place?
it's mirrors and wires back there.
The reason not to unload JDD before arbitration is that you aren't certain about Khabibulin being back and (inexplicably) you figure he's a useful part of a tandem with DD if it comes to that.
ReplyDeleteThat and you want one of DD or JDD to start for OKC.
They've spent some good money down there, yet haven't signed a starter, know they need a starter and there are lots available.
So both act as Insurance (poor insurance, but insurance nonetheless) for the Oilers and a starter for OKC if Khabby can show up on time for camp and can play.
Agree with BD that the WC was a big tell. Both Tambellini and Lowe have very close ties to hockey Canada and they love to get players on that team that probably don't get there if they are not Oilers. Both Eberle and DD fit that bill this year.
I'm still suprised people want to void Bulin's contract, if he comes back healthy he is a great goaltender and a hell of an asset, Love the DD signing.
ReplyDeleteI'm still suprised people want to void Bulin's contract, if he comes back healthy he is a great goaltender and a hell of an asset
ReplyDeleteEven healthy, he's overpaid at his current contract. He's a middling NHL starter being paid like an elite one. Not everyone who's won a Stanley Cup is a great player, you know.
And, of course, there's the absurd term of the deal. It was really just a terrible signing; I'm not sure when the Oilers have made one that was as self-evidently awful at the time.
ReplyDeleteSorry, saying that he's paid like an elite starter really isn't accurate; my bad. But if you compare him to the other UFA goaltender signings that summer (Biron and Roloson spring immediately to mind), we paid a huge premium in terms of dollars and term in exchange for pretty much nothing.
ReplyDelete//This has the admirable distinction of being both a) utterly irrelevant and b) not true.//
ReplyDeleteA/ Irrelavent!
It is about sustained performance.
You look for your young inexperienced atheletes to make jumps in performance and show they can hold that.
They will be incosistent.
But, we have a young man who played at a top 5 goaltender level at the end of the year.
Lets send him down to the A and risk loosing him to team who could use a good back-up.
B/ Shit you are correct.
Carey Price had a 8 game period were he ran off a .923 save% Nov 2008 not a .922 as I first calculated (I rely on Excel blocks for my patterns and performance blocking.)
I lied. sort of.
They both have had an 8 game runs. Dubnyk has not had a superior run just an equal one.
So far in history DD was able to show sustain like Carey the wonder kid Price!
Right now they show the same ceiling. They are both inconsistent.
Wonder if Montreal is willing to run there young goaltender through waivers.
I only push stuff like this when you micro trend stars push there point but choose to ignore the facts that run aginst your point veiw.
ReplyDeleteIrrelevant! Real games don't count! Priceless!
I don't know how you're calculating this.
ReplyDeleteAre you going like 1-8, 9-16, 17-24? If so, that's crazy.
I count Price as having played 34 8game stretches last year (1-8, 2-9, etc.) In 12 of them, he had a save percentage of .923 or better.
Also: 8 games tells you nothing about consistency. I have spent a lot of time looking at goalies and I can say this as a stone cold absolute. If this is your reason for liking Dubnyk, it's crazy.
I only push stuff like this when you micro trend stars push there point but choose to ignore the facts that run aginst your point veiw.
ReplyDeleteIrrelevant! Real games don't count! Priceless!
Eight games is nothing. Countering bad arguments with bad arguments is stupid - point out that they're bad arguments and then make good ones.
And for the record, I don't think that is a bad thing. But they need to stay the course if they're going to do it, and that should include offloading Khabibulin.
ReplyDeleteI agree that playing the hand they have now is not a bad thing, but I see Bulin as part of that hand.
Is there actually a way they can get rid of him now? And would this be a good idea?
I don't happen to think his legal issues are going to be much of an impediment. He may get jail but he also will get some flexibility there and its not like he is going to the big house for 3 years. He might be delayed in joining camp or the season but that is about it.
So the issue then is his back. If that is okay, then isn't he just about the best option they have? Wouldn't a healthy Bulin/ DD be at least league average?
It's irrelevant because it's a meaningless benchmark that you made up out of nowhere. Why 8 games, why not 10? Why not .924 or .925 or .926?
ReplyDeleteAlso: 8 games tells you literally nothing about a goalie.
ReplyDeleteDucey,
ReplyDeleteIf Khabby doesn't show up to camp for any reason (including doing time) the Oilers can terminate his contract without having the messy business of trying to prove he violated the morals clause.
I'm fairly sure that both the morals clause and the requirement to show up at camp in time are in every SPC.
If that comes to pass I don't think that ST terminates his contract. He'll have a free shot to do it though.
Whether it's DD or JDD that get sent down. There is still two goalie slots, which atleast one needs to be filled by an AHL veteran.
ReplyDelete@RB
ReplyDeletecomparing price and dubnyk because of an 8 game run is a little ridiculous.
how about these comparisons:
- price has never gone 13 games without a win
- price has never finished a season with a save percentage below .900
- price has won a calder cup (was he the MVP)?
pockets of data, or merely the ebb in flow in which we find actual results. cheechoo anyone?
To be fair, Cheechoo's drop in performance was probably a result of injury, rather than inconsistency.
ReplyDeleteI didn't know a guy can gave his contract voided.how cab the oilers do that? He only got a DUI....did he hurt someone or is there more to the story? If the oilers can void his contract I'd do it in a heartbeat....
ReplyDelete//Why not .924 or .925 or .926?//
ReplyDelete.923 was the average of top 5 performances from 05-06 to 08-09.
But I am wrong it is know .924.
05-06 to 09-10.
But hey what does top 5 save % have to do as a bench mark. Not like trying to achieve top 5 performance means anything.
I bet you in a cap world were performance per dollar means shit.
How come you do not know these levels of performnce as an indicator?
I Highly respect yours and MC's work but this is the real world and there are perfomance levels that you use as a bench mark.
Comming from the engineering world and sports world. It is the same performance reviews.
Engineering Trends:
-Harmonic conditioning of vital bus signals.
-Vibrational signals in electric motors to determine core degredation.
-waterwell monitoring for sub soil review.
-Vibration monitoring in large pump heads.
-thermal review of insulation degredationin in process performance.
My favorites from Soviet Sports Journal:
-Improving sprint performnce by 13%with trended breathing patterns.
-Steriod use in the physically mature athelete.
-High repetive press set for muscle indurence.
There are trends that can be identified to recognize signs of failure. or productivity.
Look at:
7 game trends of top 5 save -percentage there are/is a large number.
8 game trend of top five you get a small group per year.
9 game trend of top five you get a very small group.
8 game runs of top 5 performance is the edge of special group.
I will look for my common sense trended performance markers post lockout to identify signs of elite play.
These cycles are bloody obvious.
Jesus meanigless benchmarks!
Gregor tweets:
ReplyDeleteJF Jacques signs one year deal worth 615,000.
Ricki,
ReplyDeleteI respect you.
But your argument is pretty much the definition of looking for evidence to prove a conclusion.
Suppose I'm a gambler playing blackjack. I think I have a "system" that will help me win hands reliably.
Over the course of 1000 hands, I win 48% of the time.
However, I did have a few stretches of hands, say 30-40 in A row where I win 90%.
The evidence derived from the 1000 hands says my method doesn't work. Given that we do have that evidence, does the fact that I had a few good runs suggest anything positive about my system?
Obviously not. If not, what is the relevant differrence between the two cases?
You can't just say that gambling is luck and sv% isn't. We know that goalies sometimes face a lot of 2-1's and breakaways in one game but not the next. Thus, we can conclude that there should be some random variation in even a perfectly consistent robot goalie from game to game.
rickibear - if Messier picked Dubnyk based on eight games of work then he's dumber then he looks. Picking Dubnyk made no sense anyways unless he figured he'd never see the ice, which happens to be correct. So Dubnyk had a good few weeks? Would you sign him to backstop your club or would you sign someone who had been a decent starter for a couple of years or more?
ReplyDeleteI would think the latter. a couple of weeks is absolutely nothing. Chris Kontos had a nice few weeks a number of years ago. Should the Leafs have given him a big contract? Nope. And his success was a lot more impressive than DD's.
I like DD btw. But I'd like to see more than a nice little run before I run out and proclaim him the end all and be all.
@Master Lok.
ReplyDeletei agree completely.
and what i'm saying is all that data (including injury) needs to be put in perspective. Cheechoo had an amazing 50 game run in a pretty good calendar year (and was easy to cheer for), but that window can't be taken alone when talking about his career, which totalled 501 games. when you talk about cheechoo's career you have to mention the whole story including injury, joe thorton's arrival, etc etc.
and we need to look at DD with the understanding that the early season struggle is very much a part of that player. I hope he's a great player, but 8 games is a bit of a small, "saw him good" window.
In 1998 Justin Rose turned pro at 17 because he "almost" won the claret jug and then he missed 22 cuts in a row. now, he's just finally becoming a player on the PGA tour, maximizing his potential. In 1998, if people were analyzing his potential career trajectory they would have to consider both of those radically different sets of results (which i think is a decent comparison to DD's wide statistical gulf). Justin Rose has turned out to be an average golfer, just now finding his groove after years of being "okay".
My one golf instructor always told me, "you're only as good as your bad shots, because those are the ones that really impact the score card. 1 good shot might help you make a 3, but a bad shot can help you make an 11."
DD scares me because there were some really bad shots. He hit some nice drives though.
sorry for all the golf metaphors, but we're in a major week and thought i'd sneak it in between the baseball.
BD: Ask yourself how many young goaltenders acieved that trend. Not many:
ReplyDeleteYou role the dice and give the one who shows signs of being a rare stud. He does another group of 8 and you smile from ear to ear. Age 24-30 he gets more consitent.
The guy who is trending at .909 you risk losing. The veteran .915 guy when healthy is on your team.
Everyone is in turmoil.
but we had a 50 game run 0f .865with young goaltenders who were feeling there way. they both had the light go on. one did a run of
.909 and one did .923
We have:
.909 JDD
.914 KHabbi
why not chase with the young guy
.923?????????????
I sure don't expect .865. .909-.915 at the worst.
rickibear - how about showing everyone the 'small group' and the 'very small group' for last season?
ReplyDeleteThat way we can see what you see - the company DD is keeping.
Am I the only one who thinks JDD is ready to take the next step as an NHL goalie, given Khabi is still injured/on-trial?
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't think he was any less consistent than either Mathieu Garon or Dwayne Roloson, though the two latter goalies played on drastically better teams than either JDD or DD did.
Not saying JDD will ever be a bonafide #1 goalie in the NHL, but he is tracking about the same pace as Roloson was when he was in Buffalo/Minnesota, and he's still younger than he was too.
@Black Dog
ReplyDeleteNobody is dumber than Messier looks.
I'd actually like to see this 8 game stretch data. Is there anything comparable posted already online?
ReplyDeleteI don't think the skater streaks as a comparison holds; goalies have far more events/game than shooters, so the role luck has on the numbers can't be 1 to 1. If 8 games of very solid save percentage is rare, it is interesting stuff to know.
JDD is a very good goaltender. On a great team he probably would of doubled his shutouts last year.
ReplyDeleteSteve,
ReplyDeleteI think you are underestimating NK's skill. Based on his start last season, he showed that he remains an outstanding goaltender, but was playing in front of a horrible blue. Half of what he was last year is still going to be better than either of the two kids based on the kids' performance last year.
Yes he has injury problems, yes his contract is too long, especially now that the team is rebuilding (but they were not when he was signed), and yes he has some legal problems (which I highly doubt will result in his contract being voided BTW). However, in general, I think the Oilogosphere grossly underestimates NK's skill as a goaltender. He remains a real NHL goaltender, and a very good one when healthy. Perhaps not the right goaltender or contract for us in our rebuild, but then again we are miles from where we thought we were in summer '09.
Nobody is dumber than Messier looks.
ReplyDeletePhaneuf.
Game. Set. Match.
Fun facts:
ReplyDeleteNov 23rd - Dec 9th:
8GS, 227 saves, 244 shots: 0.930 SV%
Jan 28th - Feb 11th:
8GS, 250 saves, 271 shots: 0.923 SV%
Those are two elite eight game periods put together by one of the game's greats last year: Jeff Drouin Deslauriers.
Only Phaneuf is dumber than Phaneuf looks, which is actually a pretty cool paradox.
ReplyDeleteWhat i did was take the top 30 goalies each year post lockout.
ReplyDeletePosted the game logs and started looking at blocks of six games in a row on their game log. Looking for top 5 average. That was much more common. Groups of 7 was still very common. Groups of 8 is were I saw a marked drop off. Groups of 9 started getting in the cluster around top 5 average or better.
As for the results. My Fiance, now Wife, gave the Mac to my sister so we can skype (Real Reason: she could get a newer Mac).
With her in week 29 of pregnancy I am not directing any time to 'rainman' through that set again. It was easier when I could not sleep from Midnight to 3 p.m.
Those are two elite eight game periods put together by one of the game's greats last year: Jeff Drouin Deslauriers.
ReplyDeleteWell shit, let's lock both of these kids up long term with Luongo-esque contracts and watch the Stanleys roll right in.
Tambellini: Smartest man in the game
I felt like Russel Crowe in Beutiful Mind during that period of time. Piles of paper and saved Excel pages.
ReplyDeleteThere's probably a marked correlation between the end of these eight game periods and when fans and commentators decide that the Oilers have been playing with more jam and taking more time to get better shots.
ReplyDeleteWe're turning the corner boys! Ales Hemsky was ruining the powerplay! Playoffs, ho!
He remains a real NHL goaltender
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely.
and a very good one when healthy.
I don't buy it.
NHL regular season save percentage since the lockout:
Garon: .902
Khabibulin: .904
Roloson: .909
Biron: .910
Conklin: .910
Save percentage isn't everything, but I'd call that pretty damning; by what statistic is Khabibulin a "very good" NHL goaltender?
And, just for fun, 2010-2011 cap hit:
Khabibulin: $3.75M
Roloson: $2.5M
Conklin: $1.3M
Garon: $1.2M
Biron: $875K
Incidentally, if you're wondering what a "very good" NHL goaltender looks like, Luongo's regular season save percentage since the lockout is .917.
ReplyDeleteJacques signed for nice and cheap. I'm happy about that. He takes a beating among fans, but really it's just because either he hasn't had his role properly defined or he isn't getting it. But I tend to go with the former, because he was (wrongly) put on line 1. He's a checker / energy guy. Nothing more. He's a fan-effin-tastic checker/energy guy too. So I'm happy to see him back, as long as he sticks to line 4.. maybe 3.
ReplyDeleteHe's a fan-effin-tastic checker/energy guy too.
ReplyDeleteI hate to keep shitting all over our players, to say nothing of the posters here extolling their virtues, but what evidence could you possibly have for that statement?
Nov 23rd - Dec 9th:
ReplyDelete8GS, 227 saves, 244 shots: 0.930 SV%
Jan 28th - Feb 11th:
8GS, 250 saves, 271 shots: 0.923 SV%
Nice way to look at save % Reward JDD's .636 game by taking a rolling total to get save percentage.
Reliabilty review: that is cheating. You don't reward his average by looking at a .636 save % game he is rescued from by weighting 11 shots game diffrent than a 30 shot game.
It game is an idividual element. Just how the league looks at it. 909% for Nov. 23 - Dec. 9th
.919% for the second block
Steve is there a reason that you pick the lockout? These guys have all been around for a long time. If you pick a different random time frame you would get different results. For instance the last two years SV% is:
ReplyDeleteKhabi: .916
Conks: .914
Roli: .911
Biron: .909
Garon: .902
Why not look at their career numbers, other than Conks and Garon all these guys have played a decent number of games in the NHL.
Even healthy, he's overpaid at his current contract. He's a middling NHL starter being paid like an elite one. Not everyone who's won a Stanley Cup is a great player, you know.
ReplyDeleteMore to the point, not everyone who wins a Stanley Cup is still a great player six years later. Khabibulin's prime was the late 90s and early 2000s.
It is about sustained performance.
Wait, I'm confused. Eight games is a sustained performance? Where I come from, that's called a hot streak.
No one regularly sustains extremely long runs of top-five performances back-to-back-to-(…)-back because everyone has a bad game here or there. Law of averages and all that. You're barking up an entirely wrong tree here.
Hell, by that logic, Jaroslav Halak had a sustained 13-game run of .932 just a couple of months back. Sign that man to a max-level contract because he's the next fucking Hasek!
He's a fan-effin-tastic checker/energy guy too.
You know, if you put it right on a tee like that, you shouldn't be surprised when someone comes along and blasts it out of the park.
That someone will not be me, but it's gonna happen.
Is Jacques contract one or two-way? Either way it is more than one of the worst players in the NHL is worth. This guy has taken more chances from possible NHL players than I care to remember. Just painful. If you can't take a pass, you cannot be allowed to play fwd in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteWhy not look at their career numbers, other than Conks and Garon all these guys have played a decent number of games in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteWe certainly could look at their career numbers; it's just that as you move back in time, data becomes more and more irrelevant (though that has to be balanced against the fact that the sample size becomes larger and larger). The lockout's kind of arbitrary, but seemed to me to be a good balance.
Let's look at their entire careers, though:
Garon: .904
Khabibulin: .908
Roloson: .910
Biron: .910
Conklin: .911
By that measure, Khabibulin's still the second worst of our group after Garon. And you have to remember that the fact that his post lockout save percentage was so much lower than his career average means that his pre-lockout save percentage was correspondingly higher, which means that, not only is Khabibulin not all that awesome a goalie when looking at his career overall, his play has fallen off significantly in the last few years.
Your stats from the past two years are well-taken, but it's worth noting that Khabibulin played a total of 60 games during that time, which has to lead to sample size concerns (and also re-emphasize how injury prone he is).
I'm sorry, but the Khabibulin signing was just indefensible.
Jacques has too much chemistry with Horcoff to not bring back.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYou know, if you put it right on a tee like that, you shouldn't be surprised when someone comes along and blasts it out of the park.
ReplyDeleteBen Massey to the rescue.
http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/7/13/1567983/oilers-sign-jean-francois-jacques
//Just how the league looks at it.//
ReplyDeleteThis was sarcasm.
@Steve: I hate to keep shitting all over our players, to say nothing of the posters here extolling their virtues, but what evidence could you possibly have for that statement?
ReplyDeleteOh I don't know, perhaps that he played 20 less games than the #2 guy in hits on our team (Stortini) but still led our team with hits? The fact that he throws knuckles quite well?
Just to clarify, since there are two meanings.. I said he was a fantastic checker.. by that, I meant body checker, not checker in the PK'ing/defensive sense. His defensive skills are par at best, probably subpar would be more likey. But I think he's the best energy player we've had here in a long time.
I like also that he doesn't slow up on hitting a guy once he's committed. "You turned your back? Well, tough.. I'm hitting you anyways." We need guys that punish the other teams players and aren't afraid to hit the other team's stars. Jacques does exactly that. He hits everyone and everything and worries about the circumstances later. Didn't he drill a Flame from behind last year and then rock Regehr when he came in to defend him? Actually, I remember that pretty clearly. That is exactly what I like about him. He can start shit and then back it up. He is limited in other hockey skills, but useful for that reason, and still not much of a liability out there.
Just to clarify, since there are two meanings.. I said he was a fantastic checker.. by that, I meant body checker, not checker in the PK'ing/defensive sense.
ReplyDeleteAh - that's an important clarification. Could you provide similar clarification on what you mean by "energy guy"?
So far, your position appears to be that Jacques is very good at things that many of us don't think have much bearing on the outcome of hockey games.
...and still not much of a liability out there.
ReplyDeleteQuoth Ben Massey:
"Jean-Francois Jacques is -32 in his career. This is the tenth-worst total of all time among Edmonton forwards to have played more than eighty-two games with the Oilers. Every player ahead of him on the list, except Patrick O'Sullivan, played more games than Jacques. Every single player ahead of him had both more points and more points-per-game than Jacques. Jacques and O'Sullivan are the only two not to play multiple seasons for the Oilers in the mid-1990s, which was a pretty much automatic path to a sure big minus. Only O'Sullivan, David Oliver, and Shayne Corson played less than twice as many games as O'Sullivan. And not one of those players - not one! - got as little ice time as Jacques did to commit this atrocity against ice hockey."
Plus/minus is deservedly maligned, I think, but there's some reason to believe that we're looking at an apples-to-apples comparison there: fringe players playing on teams that aren't very good. In fact, the comparison may well be flattering to Jacques, because it's doubtful that many of those other guys saw time on the first line.
Perhaps not the right goaltender or contract for us in our rebuild, but then again we are miles from where we thought we were in summer '09.
ReplyDeleteUhhhh, who's "we"? There were a lot of people around here who thought that team wasn't going to be very good.
Furthermore, I think any reasonable person who weighed the most probable outcomes for Khabibulin would have come to the conclusion that he was a mediocre bet from day one. The most you could hope for in Year One of that deal would have been league average goaltending.
What is left to be said about JFJ? It's unbelievable at this point.
ST,
ReplyDeleteThank you for proving you are not the hidden genius that some people were starting to think you might be.
Signing JFJ was a bad decision by any measuring stick, and you did it. NK 2.0 (2010 version).
Fire Tambellini.
Not trying to pile on you, Racki, but...
ReplyDeleteDidn't he drill a Flame from behind last year and then rock Regehr when he came in to defend him?
I assume you're referring to this little incident?
Firstly, it was preseason. Secondly, I wouldn't use the verb "rock" to identify what Jacques did to Regher. More like: "made some contact as Regher lost his footing." Jacques' hockeyfights 2009-10 Regular Season Fight Card is enough to prove that "quite well" is an overstatement of his fighting abilities.
I'm sorry, JFJ may be able to throw a hit or two, but a legitimate goon (isn't that what you mean by 'energy guy'?) he is not.
In Tambellini's defense (sort of), all of the bad decisions he's making this off-season (Jacques, MacIntrye, arguably Strudwick) are about end-of-the-roster players, where they'll do the least harm.
ReplyDelete@Steve: Ah - that's an important clarification. Could you provide similar clarification on what you mean by "energy guy"?
ReplyDeleteSo far, your position appears to be that Jacques is very good at things that many of us don't think have much bearing on the outcome of hockey games.
I'd like to see this poll that says that "many of us" don't think that checking, intimidation and fighting have much bearing on a hockey game. Really though, the guy makes slightly above league minimum playing 6 or 7 minutes a game (until the failed 1st line experiment last year)... are we really expecting him to be a consistent game breaker?
Every team has their energy guys such as Jared Boll, Dan Carcillo, and the like. I'm pretty sure you know exactly what I mean by energy player, but I'll define it anyway. I don't really care if you prefer to watch the prissy hockey that doesn't involve players getting their hands dirty, but it's always been an aspect of the game that I love to watch and gets me as a fan excited, which in turns gets players excited.. thus why they are deemed "energy players".
Jacques job is a simple one.. to go out and intimidate and hit opponents and get players off their game. He does it well enough. There are definitely players that I could see as upgrades to him (one I mentioned on ON was Zenon Konopka - or other players that bring more of a multi-faceted game). However I like what Jacques brings to the table.
The +/- stat, as you've basically mentioned, really isn't much of a useful stat. But really, I don't expect that he's going to generate enough offense to help offset the goals that him and his linemates allow. But it's the hope that him going out and doing things such as hitting everything in sight and defending teammates is going to help our players do their job and make it harder for their players to do theirs. Simple as that.
Disagree all you want... the Oilers evidently see a bit of what I do in Jacques, and I'm happy for that.
Disagree all you want... the Oilers evidently see a bit of what I do in Jacques, and I'm happy for that.
ReplyDeleteWho wouldn't be thrilled to see their judgments reflected in the decisions of the worst team of the NHL? It speaks to your own capacity to evaluate talent.
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ReplyDeleteBtw, I just want to point out that Sam Gagner is a career -30... ~we should consider ditching him too~.
ReplyDeleteMaybe ditch Brule while we're at it, as he's a career -38...
Now you're conflating two things: what fans like to see vs. what helps win hockey games. I'm operating from the first principle that teams should strive to be as successful as possible; if you think some measure of success should be sacrificed for entertainment value, then we'll have to agree to disagree, and move on.
ReplyDeleteIf not, though, let's try to figure out to what extent hitting helps win hockey games. Tracking of the statistic is notoriously variable from rink to rink, which makes things tricky, but I can think of a couple of experiments off the top of my head that get around that:
1. Since tracking of hits should be reasonably consistent within a given game, just check the correlation between hits a team makes in a given game with the outcome of that game.
2. Since tracking of hits should be reasonably consistent over the course of a year in a given rink, look at each team's hits at home over the course of a season and check for a correlation with their record at home over that season.
My suspicion is that both of those experiments would show negligible correlations (I think negligibly negative is slightly more likely than negligibly positive, but I'm mostly agnostic on that). Do you agree that these are reasonable ways of testing the impact hitting has on winning hockey games? If not, do you have alternative proposals?
Steve: Honestly, some of you folks are way too wrapped up in stats. I am not a "stats guy" and never will be a stats guy. There is no substitute for just plain old watching games. Some of you are also taking my liking of Jacques as though I think he's the hockey Jesus and he's going to bring us to the promised land. He's a 4th liner, playing a 4th line role. If you think we should go with all skill players, then I'd like to see a team that is based completely on skill players and how successful they are... perhaps that is better proof that 4th line muckers aren't necessary to winning hockey games.
ReplyDeleteThe only argument (which I've made myself) is that we could have improved on Jacques. Like I said, having a guy like Konopka (who brings more to his game) would have been nice. But that one slipped through the cracks, as did other potential signings. I don't remember stating that the Jacques signing is going to win us loads of hockey games. Correct me if I'm wrong..
ReplyDeleteI'm happy to see him signed because he's good at his role. If you don't think his role is important to the game, that's fine and dandy, and that's definitely where we can agree to disagree.
If you think we should go with all skill players, then I'd like to see a team that is based completely on skill players and how successful they are
ReplyDeleteThe Red Wings have been to the finals twice in the past three years, been to the conference finals four years ago and won a Stanley Cup in 2007-08. Any more questions?
Honestly, some of you folks are way too wrapped up in stats. I am not a "stats guy" and never will be a stats guy.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is that hockey is decided on the basis of statistics: which side scores more goals in a game.
Some of you are also taking my liking of Jacques as though I think he's the hockey Jesus and he's going to bring us to the promised land. He's a 4th liner, playing a 4th line role.
I agree: the standard to which he should be held is that of a 4th liner, and it would be absurd to criticize him for (say) not scoring 20 goals a season. My contention is that there are many players who we could have signed for that role (that of 4th line forward) that would have done far more to help us win hockey games; Pouliot and Potulny are two of them. Comrie and Pisani are probably two more.
But if you refuse to acknowledge the empirical testability of this stuff, then there really is no way forward but to agree to disagree.
oilers 4th liners:
ReplyDeleteFraser
Stortini
Smac
Jones
Jacques
(Strudwick)
seems like waste of a contract, whether or not you like how the player looks.
In Tambellini's defense (sort of), all of the bad decisions he's making this off-season (Jacques, MacIntrye, arguably Strudwick) are about end-of-the-roster players, where they'll do the least harm.
ReplyDeleteThose 'end-of-roster' guys (including Stortini) are making 2.5 million dollars. To duplicate skills, or lack of skills in the case of SMac and JFJ. Add in Ryan Jones and Colin Fraser and you have an additional 1.6 million for 4-line spots. 4-5 guys for a 3 man line, most of which can be duplicated by call-ups if someone goes down (just look at the veterans available in OKC) and then the JFJ signing seems unnecessarily stupid.
In fairness MC Detroit really only goes 9-10 deep on skill as they always have some grit on a 3rd or 4th line. Not like the old days where Probert and Kocur were on their opponents fight card
ReplyDeleteHave to be a pretty brave goon to whack Stevie Y
BD
ReplyDeleteMessier took DD as a favour to KLowe.
How did Mess' first and last crack at assembling Canada's world Championship team work out again? :-))
Hitting and fighting have nothing to do with winning a hockey game - and there I was starting to think the stats guys were onto something.
ReplyDeleteOf course Detroit are wonderful - until the day Lidstrom retires and they return to the NHL basement.
What people seriously don't understand is that much like basketball, hockey is simply a matter of which team can ice the most talent on any given night. And if there's any NHL team in the past 15 years that proves this, it's Detroit.
Nice way to look at save % Reward JDD's .636 game by taking a rolling total to get save percentage.
ReplyDeleteYes, I've abused math to calculate an eight game save percentage to my benefit. Total saves divided by total shots, ahahaha! How diabolical of me!
The Red Wings have been to the finals twice in the past three years, been to the conference finals four years ago and won a Stanley Cup in 2007-08. Any more questions?
ReplyDeleteAh, yeah, why did the Wings dress Dallas Drake for 65 games and let him get 6 points and go -12 in their Cup winning year?
Why did the Wings lose in 06 to the mighty Oil?
How on earth did the Ducks win in 07 with guys like Parros, Kent Huskins, Brad May, Joe Dipenta, Ryan Shannon, Shawn Thorton, Travis Moen and Sean O'Donnell?
As you may guess. I don't have a problem with the JFJ signing. There are going to be injuries and a guy like JFJ will probably slot in and out depending upon the injury situation, how others are playing and the opposition.
This is not a good team, yet. It won't be a for a year at the earliest. JFJ will need to stay healthy and do something in his at bats but he has shown some skills at the AHL level and does have the ability to hit, fight and skate.
So, take a flyer on your 13th/14th forward. Maybe something happens, maybe it doesn't. Its not much of a wager.
So, take a flyer on your 13th/14th forward. Maybe something happens, maybe it doesn't. Its not much of a wager.
ReplyDeleteNo problem at all with your line of thinking (i.e. gambling with your 13th/14th forward, since your team's not going anywhere this year anyway). But there are plenty of better gambles - better odds *and* higher payout - than Jacques.
Steve: If you read my posts fully, you'd even see that I, myself, said that there were better options than Jacques. It seems as though you replied to me in order to argue for the sake of arguing. At no point have I ever said Jacques was the best available player. I do like that he was signed though because I do like him as a player.
ReplyDeleteI was sorely disappointed though when Potulny wasn't qualified by the Oilers. Pouliot is a different matter (that's a guy I can't see the fascination in, much like many of you can't see my fascination in Jacques). Pouliot, from what I've seen does a couple of things.. he plays average offensively and slightly above average defensively. He's really not a guy I'd be upset about losing and not a guy I'd take over Jacques.
Argue if you will that these energy guys are useless. I personally have said that there are players out there that I would prefer more than Jacques, but no one in our line up does his role better. I can't think of a guy who has been a better hitter for this team in quite a few years. If given the choice, I would have definitely taken Potulny over Jacques hands down. But the Oilers cut Potulny loose, so it it is a completely moot point for me to argue that at this point.
Also, the Oilers appear to not have made a decision on Comrie yet. But I can almost bet that unless Tambellini/Renney/etc. plan on using Jacques incorrectly again this year, Comrie and Jacques are not competing for the same job. Comrie is no more of a 4th liner than Jacques is a top-9 guy. There should be no competition between these two for a roster spot. If Jacques signing causes Comrie to lose his job, well that's the fault of management/coaching staff for not understanding what different roles these guys play and what different positions in our lineup they should hold.
There should be no competition between these two for a roster spot. If Jacques signing causes Comrie to lose his job, well that's the fault of management/coaching staff for not understanding what different roles these guys play and what different positions in our lineup they should hold.
ReplyDeleteIt is actually me who is belaboring this JFJ thing - it is a lazy signing, and brings a guy who is not particularly good at anything hockey-related.
The competition between Comrie and JFJ is simply how many roster spots you can have on your NHL team. That and the fact that some of the guys who Comrie is in competition for need to bump down to the 4-line, if he is signed, which makes the spot JFJ takes up a little more valuable.
And, of course, that JFJ has no skills to duplicate on the roster, lacking all skill other than the ability to skate in the general direction of an opposing player and bump him with varying degrees of violence. Which, from my 'just watching the game' vantage point is somewhere between useless and minor impact.
Let's be abundantly clear here. No one is saying that hitting costs you games. They're saying it's completely irrelevant. There are high-hitting teams with shitty records and high-hitting teams with great records; low-hitting teams with shitty records and low-hitting teams with great records. It doesn't fucking matter. What matters is how good you are at ice hockey as a whole.
ReplyDeleteTo wit, I will dig up this old chestnut that I'm really quite happy with. I know some of the protesters are going to roll their eyes at the stats, but the numbers paint an exceedingly clear picture: on the scale of 0 (total randomness) to 1 (perfect linearity), hitting vs. points percentage falls almost entirely on the "total randomness" side of things.
"Wow, we have a lot of 4th liners."
ReplyDeleteIf you want to skip the numbers, just read the Conclusion. Oh, and I think that study also shows that the hit stat is bullshit. I would be stunned if the inter-rater reliability of hits, giveaways, and takeaways was anything to write home about.
ReplyDeleteAlso, let me say I knew I could count on Lord Bob to do right by me.
ReplyDeleteAlso, by way of apology to Racki, I am not so mad about JFJ for any other reason than it re-confirms my suspicions about Tambellini's fitness as a GM, after a rather hope-inducing last couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteBar Qu: Trust me, I am in no way a Tambellini-apologist. He's made some pretty poor decisions. Jacques isn't one i consider a poor decision though. He's a cheap player making 615k to play a 4th line role. He's easily cut loose if he doesn't work out.
ReplyDeleteIt's the decisions such as not re-signing Potulny and Khabibulin's horrid contract that bother me. As well as not signing some key free-agents such as a shutdown defenceman.
Steve: If you read my posts fully, you'd even see that I, myself, said that there were better options than Jacques.
ReplyDeleteThen I'm puzzled: isn't signing a player where there were clearly preferable options available for the same money by definition a bad signing?
Doogie, thanks very much for that link - I hadn't seen it, and it confirms my suspicions. Whenever I think about the importance of hitting, I think about the twenty-eight consecutive years the Oilers faced Dallas in the playoffs. The game plan going in was always that the young, rambunctious Oilers should hit the more elderly Stars at every opportunity, and the Oilers generally kept to that game plan pretty closely. Meanwhile, those decrepit old bastards in the green and black focused on the sissier parts of the game, like puck possession, blocking shots, and scoring goals.
I'm not saying that the Oilers kept losing to Dallas because they tried to hit them too much; I'm saying that they lost because they weren't as good at outscoring as the Stars were, and that hitting didn't do anything to change that. That's admittedly anecdotal evidence, though.
Pouliot is a different matter (that's a guy I can't see the fascination in, much like many of you can't see my fascination in Jacques).
ReplyDeleteI've got no fascination with Pouliot, who I view as basically a fourth liner. But the stats are pretty unequivocal that he's a better hockey player than Jacques.
Argue if you will that these energy guys are useless.
I'm not arguing that "these energy guys" are useless, unless your definition of "energy guy" is "guys whose sole contribution is running into guys". I'm saying that Jacques is useless (or, rather, of so little use relative to other players that are out there and players that other teams will be icing that he's effectively useless).
I'm not saying that the Oilers kept losing to Dallas because they tried to hit them too much; I'm saying that they lost because they weren't as good at outscoring as the Stars were, and that hitting didn't do anything to change that. That's admittedly anecdotal evidence, though.
ReplyDeleteExactly. Hitting only helps you if it a) separates a man from the puck or play, and b) you subsequently do something useful with your opportunity. As I recall, it was mostly "b" that the '90s Oilers were underqualified for, God love 'em for trying.
Exactly. Hitting only helps you if it a) separates a man from the puck or play, and b) you subsequently do something useful with your opportunity. As I recall, it was mostly "b" that the '90s Oilers were underqualified for, God love 'em for trying.
ReplyDeleteI remember a lot of problems with "a" too: Star #1 would pass to Star #2, then Mike Grier would hit Star #1 while Star #2 found Star #3 open in front of the net. Star #3 would then score while Chad Kilger was hitting Star #2.
. But there are ple
ReplyDeletenty of better gambles - better odds *and* higher payout - than Jacques.
JFJ is Vish' personal Lotto 6/49 ticket.
Apparently it was good for one more draw.
He can't let it go.
Some of you are once again guilty of one of the most common statistical mistakes. You keep confusing populations with individuals. Simply put, team hitting may have utterly no correlation with winning or losing. I actually find that fits pretty well with my years, as a player, a coach, and a fan.
ReplyDeleteHowever, you then jump over the excluded middle, and extrapolate to how JFJ has no value to the Oilers, or at least his hitting doesn't. You haven't come close to proving this, or even saying anything pertinent in support of that position. You need to analyze JFJ's hits and their impact on the Oilers rather than try to use a population stat on an individual.
The simplest direct expression would be number of hits thrown by JFJ versus outcome of that game. His hits versus our record might well be random. On the other hand it might not be. Nobody here has addressed the issue. You'd also, since not all hits are created equal, look at such things as zone starts, zone finishes as compared to JFJ's hits. I could go on but I won't.
The point is that population behaviours often look random but subsets of that population will express non-randomness. Individual correlation may be much different from the correlations of the population to which that individual belongs. We see this, with important implications, in smoking and cancer.
In general, the population of all humans increases its risk of getting lung cancer by smoking. Certain parts of the population however are particularly at risk if they smoke. Those, for example, with a close relative who smoked and got lung cancer, are definitely at greater risk. The thing is for people whose relatives smoked and didn't get lung cancer the correlation between smoking and lung cancer risk is close to pure randomness. So in this case the population statistic while valid for the group hides individuals with even greater risks and with much lower risks.
For all we know a this point, JFJs hits are categorically different than those of the population of all hitters. For old timers, do you really think the impact of an Al Hamiltion hit was the same as a Bryan Marchment hit or Dave Manson? Where, when, and how the hit occurs may all be important parameters as well as Doogie and others are pointing out.
For all we know a this point, JFJs hits are categorically different than those of the population of all hitters. For old timers, do you really think the impact of an Al Hamiltion hit was the same as a Bryan Marchment hit or Dave Manson?
ReplyDeletePossibly not. But in that case (let's say for simplicity that Marchment/Manson hits mattered, and Hamilton hits didn't), we'd still see a positive correlation between hits and team success, just not as strong of one as we would if we looked only at Marchment/Manson hits.
If the overall correlation is negligible, which it is, then the only way hits from guys like JFJ help the team win is if hits from some other guys hurt the team's chances of winning. If hits from those other guys had no effect, there would still be an overall positive correlation.
Steve: Yeah, I was young enough when those series were played that I don't have that good of a recollection of the play, but I do remember them being long on try and short on good.
ReplyDeleteLinnaeus: You're right, of course: not all individuals conform to popuation norms. I don't have the time or inclination to look into this in that kind of detail, but given Ben's post from earlier today showing how many arrows are going in the wrong direction whenever Jacques is on the ice, I'm betting he isn't exactly Chris Pronger in his hit selection or effectiveness in creating and exploiting opportunities.
According to Jim Matheson in the Journal:
ReplyDelete"The Oilers have also signed local defenceman Shawn Belle to a one-year contract. Belle was a first-round draft pick of the St. Louis Blues in 2003 but has bounced around, playing in the Dallas, Minnesota and Montreal organizations. He spent the last two seasons with the Hamilton Bulldogs, the Habs’ AHL affiliate, playing two games for Montreal last season. He’s played 11 NHL games."
"On the surface, it looks like Belle, 25, will be sent Oklahoma City, but he might challenge for the No. 6 defence spot. There’s been a body of thought for some time that Belle might be better served as a winger than as a defenceman with his 233-pound size and skating ability."
Kris said:
ReplyDelete"Nobody is dumber than Messier looks.
Phaneuf.
Game. Set. Match."
Bobby Holik.
Bell has the potential to be this years Johnny Boychuk.
ReplyDeleteHe is big, tough an absolutely superb skater who has, for a number of years,struggled with trying to do too much. In the last year or two he has greatly simplified his game and now makes the simple play.
Think: bigger, stronger and a much better skater than Peckham without the willingness to fight.
Will be a real solid addition to Oklahoma City but could be a great # 5-6 D amn if he keeps it simple