Confirmation tonight the Edmonton Oilers have signed minor league defender Shawn Belle. It's a nice bet (2-way deal, 600/150 as per Rishaug's twitter) because at the very least he helps Okla City in a big way.Belle has a solid resume and the scouting report
suggests he might be able to both challenge at TC and represent a solid callup option.
He was a first round pick in 2003 (STL) and has terrific foot speed. A very nice depth move by the GM.
One would almost hambellini knows some french, because this kid could be a beauty signing...
ReplyDeletehe's destined for OKC me thinks.
ReplyDeletebut yes a good move none the less.
ReplyDelete"Place of birth: Edmonton, Alta., Canada"
ReplyDeletehow many edmonton born players are in the oilers' system these days?
depends on whether or not they are stars.
ReplyDeleteWith some good coaching, I think Belle's speed and size could be harnessed into making a pretty decent shut-down guy. If he were taught to keep things simple, it might make up for his lack of hockey sense.
ReplyDeleteI remember him as a fun player to watch at the WJHC. Lots of energy,powerful stride. Nice depth move.
ReplyDeleteIt's too bad the big league club didn't have established players in most positions. The team in OKC should be fun to watch, but if this was Detroit OKC would be dynamite.
Stumbled this on the ol' Al Gore ... Burkie is interested in Pisani ?!
ReplyDeletePisani TO Bound ?
LT,
ReplyDeleteSorry about being off-topic, but what do you think of Petteri Nokelainen? He is a RH Defense first Center that can win face-offs, has good size, is only 24.
It appears that people have given up on him (waived by Phoenix, traded for a sixth rd pick by Anaheim), and he is available cheap!
His pedigree is great. But if he brings nothing else to the table except his versatility (can play all F positions), and defensive acumen he would be great, IMHO!
May be he wouldbe a good fit with the kids.
Excellent move for OKC and the Oil.
ReplyDeleteIf Tamb grabs a veteran forward, I'll give him an A for the offseason. As much as we can expect, IMO.
If he can fix the Souray situation, get value for Cogliano, sign Gagner to a bargain deal, or somehow deal with the Khabi problem, I'll nominate him for GM of the year.
Of course, a lot of the problems he's working on are problems he helped create.
Good AHL signing. Now if only Tambellini could adress the needs of the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteAn A? He gets full credit for cutting salary, but he still hasn't done anything to make the team a whole lot better.
ReplyDeleteRather, I should say, he hasn't done much to make the NHL team better. The Barrons are looking much better.
ReplyDeleteI remember Belle being very mobile in the WJHC.
ReplyDeleteHe looks like Boychuk did a year ago. Hopefully in a year he looks like Boychuk does now (making only 2/3 of the money though).
I'm of the belief that the success of the Barons this year is more important than the success of the Oilers. We all know about our incredible forward prospects, and lack of defensive prospects, but if those d-men develop well, we could have a few big leaguers out of that crop - not impact players, but players nonetheless.
ReplyDeletePlante and Petry probably have a future, maybe Chorney, maybe even Motin. Throw in the development of Hartikainen, Vande Velde, and (yeah I'm gonna throw him in) O'Marra (I still think can be a useful 3rd/4th line centre - a really poor man's Ryan Kesler), and this year's AHL season is of great importance.
Eberle, Hall, and Paajarvi all look like they have both the talent and drive to will their way to success, but the rest will need lots of guidance and seasoning. I'm excited about Lander too.
Good draft. Signed Foster. Trade for a 4th line PK'ing center. Signed AHL depth.
ReplyDeleteDidn't fuck up except by signing three end of roster stooges -Smac, JFJ, Strudwick- to near league minimum. (If we sign a real depth forward, at least one stooge goes to OKC, which is really awesome, IMO.)
That's an A. Especially the not fucking up.
Potential player comparisons:
ReplyDeleteEberle - Steve Sullivan (with more size; may exceed Sullivan's numbers, which were pretty good)
Paajarvi - Marian Hossa (similiar player, we'll see if he has Hossa's hands)
Hall - Bure (common media comparison due to blazing speed and desire to score)
Gagner - Scott Gomez (Sam looks more well-rounded, and hopefully is a better goal scorer)
Hartikainen - Scott Hartnell (ceiling)
Lander - Vern Fiddler (This one may not mean much to most people, but Fiddler is a pretty underrated player - good defensively, lots of heart, low-maintenance - a true Nashville type of player who helped the Coyotes a lot last year)
kris said -> ...signing three end of roster stooges -Smac, JFJ, Strudwick
ReplyDeleteSenior Hockey Advisor!
I think the logic here is to ensure a good supply of AHLers who can come fill in when or where needed. On a team with lots of rookies and some injury prone players, it can be really valuable to have some guys who can come up and play 4-5 games here and there in certain roles.
ReplyDeleteI also think that by getting the AHL house in order, it addresses one wart on the organization.
kris,
ReplyDeleteset your expectations higher. Tambellini has done nothing of significance yet. There have been a couple of good signings, a couple of bad ones, and the draft went well (but that is hardly ST's fault).
The team is still short a strong D-corp, a number one goalie (who is not either injured or incarcerated) and a strong veteran PK/FO centre.
Right now, the Oil have a GM who is getting a C+, at most.
Good point about the AHL team, bookie (and others).
ReplyDeleteLet's give Steve-o a C++ instead (the teacher's cheat mark).
The WORST thing Tambellini could do is make a big deal, a sweeping trade or major offer sheet. Seriously. We don't need another summer of Heatley, or even another Penner.
ReplyDeleteHe could make some moves (RH C, veteran RW, maybe Grebeshkov) but staying the course overall is the best plan. And, by and large he's followed it this summer.
set your expectations higher. Tambellini has done nothing of significance yet. There have been a couple of good signings, a couple of bad ones, and the draft went well (but that is hardly ST's fault).
ReplyDeleteThe team is still short a strong D-corp, a number one goalie (who is not either injured or incarcerated) and a strong veteran PK/FO centre.
Right now, the Oil have a GM who is getting a C+, at most.
I would tend to agree with that. I think we're screwed in the goaltender situation, so I don't foresee help there, barring a miracle (such as Khabi's contract being torn up... which I really can't see happening, even if it were possible). But beyond that, I have been saying that we need a shutdown d-man here, first and foremost. Secondly, we would also need someone to give Shawn Horcoff a hand with the faceoffs and PKing duty. Oh say Kyle Brodziak, Marty Reasoner or Jarret Stoll. I kid, of course, but those trades were bad only because a similar replacement player never stepped up from the ranks, and Tambi never went out to find a replacement player, for some crazy reason either.
I'm waiting for him to say "Wow we have a lot of defensemen".
ReplyDeleteI am with LT on this one guys...... I have, overall, liked what "Tambi" has done so far. I have been fairly hard on management but this summer he moved out the OTC, has created some cap space which is very much an asset and has made some nice pickups on the periphery. Get a RH center to play the toughs and win face offs and he gets a B.
ReplyDeleteCouple more years of annual B's and we get 2-3 rounds into the playoffs
Love the Belle signing very much. He is an absolutely superb skater. Must keep it simple. Sign Jason Smith as an assistant coach to work with Peckham and Belle and run the D?
i'd rather tambellini wait to make "significant moves".
ReplyDeletemake the right moves, not the quickest ones. wait for other teams to get into cap or injury trouble if necessary.
wait for free agents to get antsy.
at this point there's little to lose by waiting. he decisively shed salary when he needed to and made good value pickups where available.
what's the rush? champions aren't built in a week. the GM is making slow and steady but measurable progress.
i'm not going to give the GM a letter grade until the term is up, which i consider to be the next trade deadline.
I really can't find much fault in what Steve Tambellini has done.
ReplyDeleteLetting go of Marc Pouliot and the like... such a non-issue in my mind. Bringing back JFJ... I see what you stats types are saying, but he does one thing they like and I can't see him getting another chance like Quinn gave him last year, so again: ambivalence.
Everything else he's done since the trade deadline has been undeniably solid in my mind.
Next summer maybe you throw an offersheet at Brent Seabrook or something, as you might be able to transition from rebuild-to-compete mode. This year.. sitting on what he's done would not be the biggest crime.
Even if he doesn't add that "RH Centre" or "Second pairing defenseman with a collection of skills" - the direction of the time is in place and we know he knows that they need these things to compete long term.
That's progress.
Good move, he's a veteran in the AHL, and he could bump a guy like Strudwick to the AHL if he plays well.
ReplyDeleteLow risk move. Could turn out to be handy. A nice move.
ANon: There's a reason Nookelainen has been traded and waived like 6 times in the last 3 years.
Yeah, looking solely at his performance since the trade deadline, Tambellini's in solid B/B- territory. To get an A he'd have to sign a few higher level, but still unsexy, free agents (I've liked the signings so far, but I don't see Foster as a solid #3 defenseman, and we probably need more than one forward who can kill penalties), but you can hardly fault him for failing to unload the Khabibulin and Souray contracts (you can certainly blame him for *signing* the Khabibulin contract, but I said I'm limiting this to his performance since the trade deadline). If he manages to unload either without taking back similar albatrosses, then he's into A+ territory, but A+ territory is exceptional, and we shouldn't expect it even of good GMs.
ReplyDeleteBasically, he's performing as a competent NHL general manager; that just looks like an A performance to us because of what we're used to.
But he's unloaded Staios, Moreau, O'Sullivan, and Nilsson, and taken back a second rounder, a couple months of Aaron Johnson, one year of an overpaid Jim Vandermeer, and a little 2011-2012 cap space from the Nilsson buyout. I think a C for that is overly harsh.
Oh and LT:
ReplyDeleteTold ya it was the Rangers' year =)
In the big picture, I don't beleive in Lowe, ST and the rest of the Oilers management. I would prefer if they made some more horrendous decisions and did stupid things because it would hasten their way out the door. This playing small ball stuff will probably keep them employed for at least another year, and if the kids have a good year it will stretch into more. That would, IMO, ultimately be bad for the club.
ReplyDeleteI think v3.0 has done a good job this summer.
ReplyDeleteNot a "very good" as I disagree with JFJ, Smac and Struds, but as other mentioned mistakes at the bottom of the roster may not effect the team too much.
My issue like others is the lack of more cheap tough minute vets for line 3, and is adding JFJ and Smac going to leave room for the NHL vets the team needs.
I'm not going to pass judgment on the summer until Kovy is signed and the backlog of UFA forwards get signed and see if v3.0 has signed what the team needs.
That might be sometime in August.
i find it very funny that Grebs was one player fans couldn't WAIT to dump, got their wish, now they talk about bringing him back. unreal!
ReplyDeletei find it very funny that Grebs was one player fans couldn't WAIT to dump, got their wish, now they talk about bringing him back. unreal!
ReplyDeleteAccepting for a moment your dubious contention that we couldn't wait to dump him, you'll note that nobody's talking about bringing him back at $3.5 million.
Someone on the web mentioned the possibility of converting Belle to a forward.
ReplyDeleteWith his apparent skating ability and size (6' 233 lbs), it's like someone was envisioning the second coming of D. Byfluglien.
At his size, maybe a closer Oiler comp. might be Mike Grier - now THAT would be a wonder to see. I wonder how much Belle likes to hit. To dream, to dream...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think a C for that is overly harsh.
ReplyDeleteC'mon Steve, it was a C ++ (that's two pluses!).
You sound like one of those parents at the interview table asking what their child did not to earn an actual B! As though I can really say what I really feel. ;)
In all seriousness, Tambellini is making incremental improvements and I credit him with that, but every now and again he makes an incremental move in the other direction (signing JFJ and Shawn Belle in the same day - the two negate each other on a +- scale). Plus the team is still short some important parts. Some of those parts can't be addressed until other factors settle out (ie. court cases).
So, I am being hasty in giving a grade, which really needs to wait until September or TC.
FPB: Only Cubs fans brag at the All-Star break.
ReplyDeletePeter, finding comparable players for prospects is always tough, good attempt though =).
ReplyDeleteI'll mention a few caveats:
Eberle & Sullivan: Eberle doesn't have nearly the wheels that Sully did/does (Steve generates a lot of offense with his speed). Eberle seems to get most of his points from excellent positioning and being capable in the cycle.
Gagner & Gomez: Gagner is in no way more rounded than Gomez. Gomez is a true and true out scorer that is excellent in all situations and areas on the ice, although his goal scoring is anemic at best. I'd be thrilled if Gagner becomes as good as Gomez, here's hoping he does this and more.
Hall & Bure: I get the idea of this, but never liked it. Hall is more 'balls to the wall' and Bure was just pure bottled electricity, that's as best as I can describe it.
@Steve....remember why he was traded? it wasn't a strictly monetary issue was it? he had become redundant hadn't he? i really don't care if we get him for 1 mill/per, i don't want him and his soft defensive play back!
ReplyDeleteDug, I'm all for signing Grebs to a 2-2.5 million 1 year deal. He's had success with the Oil before, seems to like the team, and said all the right things. Pump his stats if you can, then trade him at the deadline for a 2nd or package him up for something more.
ReplyDelete@Steve....remember why he was traded? it wasn't a strictly monetary issue was it? he had become redundant hadn't he?
ReplyDeleteIt was a strictly monetary issue. We were desperately short of NHL defensemen as it was; how do you figure that one of the few we had was redundant?
"My issue like others is the lack of more cheap tough minute vets for line 3, and is adding JFJ and Smac going to leave room for the NHL vets the team needs."
ReplyDeleteA couple vets like Moreau and Pisani would do wonders for the team (bookie sign)
Funny that when I suggested rolling Pisani and Horcoff on the 3rd line checking role the commentary was about how checking lines have gone the way of the dinosaur and then a few months later it's all about how we need tough minute 3rd line checkers.
Put another way, if Grebeshkov was making $1.5 million (or some other amount where we would have qualified him at the conclusion of his contract), he wouldn't have been traded, or at least not without a roster defenseman coming back.
ReplyDeleteI think the strength of ST so far has been his ability to stick to his plan (it seems that way) for the most part.There are a couple of the lower end guys who raise an eyebrow and also the toughness factor may be over the top if we sign another one trick pony.He has worked a couple of nice deals so far (Vandermeer was quite clever)
ReplyDeleteThe farm is looking better too.
Wehave some work to do on defence with a Souray replacement and it is possible that the forwards may be tough to make decisions on come training camp (Omark for one)His work is not complete but I would give him a B for now.
In retrospect, that Grebs deal at the deadline for a 2nd rounder looks pretty good. I didn't like it at the time because I over value Oiler prospects and players.
ReplyDeleteIf ST could sign him to a reasonable one year deal and flip him for another 2nd at the deadline I would be mighty impressed.
It was a strictly monetary issue. We were desperately short of NHL defensemen as it was; how do you figure that one of the few we had was redundant?
ReplyDeletePart of it was the money, part of it was the fact it would seem he was not in the long term plans.
If you are in 30th and you have an asset you do not see as a corner stone and you can convert into a pick or prospect, you do it.
It was a bit of strange trade from Nashville's perspective given they have not resigned him. It also highlights the timing of some trades. There is no way Tambi gets a 2nd for Grebs at the draft.
It was a bit of strange trade from Nashville's perspective given they have not resigned him. It also highlights the timing of some trades. There is no way Tambi gets a 2nd for Grebs at the draft.
ReplyDeleteThat's because he was a playoff rental; those tend to lose their value after the playoffs are over.
A nice signing, and now it prompts me to wonder again who's going to be coaching our young D-men come the time to expose them? Guys like this seem like relatively attractive bait to the worthier candidates, I would think.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteA couple vets like Moreau and Pisani would do wonders for the team
One of these things is not like the other, one of things is only kinda the same. /sesame street
I'm not too sure I like the signing. Belle has never shown NHL upside in multiple organizations. He's failed to crack the top-6 of both the Minnesota Wild and St. Louis Blues, and their bluelines ain't exactly stellar.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, what this will do in OKC is push one of our own young prospects out of the top-6. Taking a wager at OKC's depth chart:
Petiot
Taylor
Chorney
Belle
Plante
Petry
Motin
I think the continued development of Motin is worth more to the Oilers system than giving another re-tread a shot.
There's something to be said for defensive depth, I'll admit that, but if it results in Plante/Motin forced down to Stockton after playing full seasons in the AHL last year, I don't like it.
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteI respect you. But wanting Horcoff to play with our best players and wanting to have a few more players who can play decent qual comp. aren't incompatible.
All,
I guess "A" is too high. Still, I think we need to evaluate GM's by comparison to each other, on a curve. Which GM's have done better this offseason? I suppose there are some.
DG: maybe this is a pre-cursor to a move that includes one of our D prospects? If not, maybe ST's mindset really is to throw as many unproven things on the wall as possible and see if any of them stick.
ReplyDeleteThat's what a lot of these signings look like to me: cheap gambles at an NHL player, who if they don't work out, can bolster OKC. I don't mind the concept, especially with the back-end of the roster types. That is if they don't impede the development of a "bluer" chip kid. And man, we really do have lots of end-of-roster guys on contract now.
I'd like to see ST take some cheap gambles on actual NHL players - sign useful guys for cheap and short term so that you can flip them at the deadline if you need to for more bullets at the draft (Ã la Grebeshkov).
In retrospect, that Grebs deal at the deadline for a 2nd rounder looks pretty good. I didn't like it at the time because I over value Oiler prospects and players.
ReplyDeleteI was brutally wrong on that trade.
Traktor was right.
DG,
ReplyDeleteI like having depth in the AHL. If Motin can't beat someone for a spot, maybe some time in the E is warranted, at least until OKC is hit by injuries AND callups. Indeed, AHL teams need to be doubly deep, because they lose players to their own injury and their parent clubs. KP nevere, ever seemed to get that, and he always iced a horrible farm club.
maybe this is a pre-cursor to a move that includes one of our D prospects?
ReplyDeleteOr there is no D coming back in the Souray trade.
I guess "A" is too high. Still, I think we need to evaluate GM's by comparison to each other, on a curve. Which GM's have done better this offseason? I suppose there are some.
ReplyDeleteWe also need to remember diminishing returns: it's probably easier to turn a 30th place team into a 25th place team than to turn a 3rd place team into a 2nd place team, because the competition is just that much fiercer at the top. I think Tambellini's done pretty well lately (I gave him a B/B- above), but he also had the luxury of a team with some glaring problems, at least a few of which had obvious solutions. Virtually everybody in the Oilogosphere agreed on some of what had to be done, and some of those moves turned out to be as easy as putting Moreau on waivers. Could we all agree on things that, for example, Pittsburgh needed to do? Or, even worse, Chicago?
Tambellini's performed competently in making reasonable moves that obviously needed to be made. That's a major step up from Oilers' GMs the past few years, but it's not worth an A.
I was brutally wrong on that trade.
Me too (well, maybe not brutally, since my position was basically "huh - was that really the best offer on the table for a pretty decent impending RFA defenseman whose next contract won't be much higher than his last one?"). What I failed to realize at the time was that Grebeshkov wasn't getting qualified wherever he was, and that an impending RFA who's not going to be qualified is indistinguishable from an impending UFA. Grebeshkov brought in a pretty decent return for a playoff rental, which it turns out is what he was.
I like having depth in the AHL. If Motin can't beat someone for a spot, maybe some time in the E is warranted, at least until OKC is hit by injuries AND callups.
ReplyDeleteRight on Kris. I think its important not to get too enamoured with your own prospects. If the Oilers prospects can't beat out good AHLers for roster spots, what chance do they have against NHLers?
Ditto, with guys like Peckham, JDD, and DD. Put them on the NHL roster only if they outperform the vets, waivers be damned. It's not like the Oilers have a murder's row of depth to overcome.
Build depth across the entire org, and let the cream rise. Maybe you'll lose a couple of serviceable players here and there, but in the long run, you'll have a better hockey club.
Love the Shawn Belle signing. He's been really good for me two years into an Oilers franchise in NHL10 ;)
ReplyDeleteBut seriously, he's the right combination of size and athleticism. Here's hoping whoever OKC announces as head coach has a pedigree of getting talented guys' heads straight. Will 1:30 never come...? (damn slow-moving Humpday)
Anon:
I liked Nokelainen-for-Moreau at the deadline (a lot) and I was convinced he would catch on in the PHO system after they swapped him for a 6th rounder. But he didn't.
fpb is off on the details, but dead on about his value's downward trend. Noke's worth, working backwards, is: cap savings (2010 buyout), a flyer (PHO's 6th rounder), a serviceable vet (Steve Montador), and a ~PPG 3rd-year AHLer (Ben Walter & a conditional 2nd).
Something's not clicking, especially if a guy like Tippett can't make it work with the so-called defensive pivot. I agree that it would be a "buy low" move that could pay off, but the Org has Lander and I don't think Noke is on their radar.
Q:
ReplyDeleteit prompts me to wonder again who's going to be coaching our young D-men come the time to expose them?
A?:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=2488
A guy who got off the bus at an early stop.
All,
ReplyDeleteI guess "A" is too high. Still, I think we need to evaluate GM's by comparison to each other, on a curve. Which GM's have done better this offseason? I suppose there are some.
You don't grade by comparison to peers, you grade by comparison to the desired outcome. For example - if you need to learn how to multiply fractions, you don't get an A simply because no one else in the class can stop eating paste and you can actually put pencil to paper.
Or to put it another way. If your roster has significant needs (too many of one type of player, not enough depth on D, goalie issues, defensive play by forwards, etc) then the measuring stick is how well you address those needs. Especially if you call your shot ("we're in rebuild mode and we need to get better on the farm"). Judging by that standard, Tambellini still has significant work to do, and from what I've read he only has 5 more contracts to give out before he is done (NHL).
I applaud the defensive depth that is building, though it is too weak on the NHL side, and the promise of forward strength is too real to be ignored, but something has to be decided in net - and qualifying both your AHL quality goalies ain't it. Maybe because of NK's court date, that holds things up, and I need to reserve judgement until at least August. But there is only so many contracts left for a team that has major holes. And some of the holes have been created by the guy who is getting the good press right now, without holding him responsible for making the holes in the first place (maybe an oversimplification).
Anyways, that's why I am not ready to give a good word to the GM yet, even though I am happy with much of what he has done this summer.
Off-topic, but arena related. From MotherCorp:
ReplyDeleteOilers owner Daryl Katz is telling Edmonton city council he will fulfil his original committment to put $100 million towards the cost of a new downtown arena.
In a letter sent to city council on June 29, Katz's representative Bob Black says the money will go directly towards the construction of the arena.
The letter also says the cost of the arena will be significantly less than the $400 million originally reported.
So, a positive step for once.
You don't grade by comparison to peers, you grade by comparison to the desired outcome. For example - if you need to learn how to multiply fractions, you don't get an A simply because no one else in the class can stop eating paste and you can actually put pencil to paper.
ReplyDeleteAm I right in thinking that you've been out of university for a while?
Am I right in thinking that you've been out of university for a while?
ReplyDelete6 years (and counting). Universities do the poorest job of educational assessment of any level of education (just to make broad sweeping generalisations). Bell curves don't tell you anything about how students have learned the material, they only tell you that you need to pass some schmoes that did not learn it better than others (like me when I took basic statistics).
Assessment works better when you tell students/workers 'this is the goal you need to reach to be considered competent/excellent' and then measure their progress against that goal (or outcome).
Again, back to hockey. ST set his own goal (to an extent) for the rebuild, but there is also the goal of having a team that can at least contend for a playoff spot. Against that metric, he is not meeting expectations or at best performing satisfactorily. That (on a traditional scale) is a C+ or a B-.
Perhaps Don Jackson is under contract there in Berlin? Plus, he's head coach, in a shiny new rink and winning championships over there. Maybe things are good. Dirt?
ReplyDeleteMatty's making noise again today about Gator coaching the D. See any legs under that? He'd certainly offer pragmatism behind the bench.
ST set his own goal (to an extent) for the rebuild, but there is also the goal of having a team that can at least contend for a playoff spot.
ReplyDeleteSince when has that been the goal for next year, stated or otherwise? I think at this point for most fans, and I'm guessing for management as well, the goal is to be one of the best teams in the NHL in 3 - 4 years. With whatever happens next season only being relevant in so far as to how it serves that goal.
Judging from that criteria, I think C+ is a bit too harsh for STv3.0
@Steve.....if the Oilers re-sign Grebs so be it, but some of the radio guys here at the time said, and i agree, that Grebs, Lubo, Gilbert were all redundant, all soft, Lubo and Grebs being smallish, the 3 of them not overly physical....i like our larger, tougher defence now, with Whitney, Gilbert, Vandermeer, Smid, Struds, Peckham, and perhaps Petry.
ReplyDeleteSince when has that been the goal for next year, stated or otherwise?
ReplyDeleteYou bring up a good point and I guess this is where I need to leave off debating how good a GM Tambellini is. There really is no definitive outcome/goal that he could be marked on, and even if I could define one it would not one we would agree on.
So, because it is a) too early b) too nebulous a target and c) a futile discussion, I think I need to step back from this discussion and let some more profitable conversation take place.
Secondly, we would also need someone to give Shawn Horcoff a hand with the faceoffs and PKing duty. Oh say Kyle Brodziak, Marty Reasoner or Jarret Stoll. I kid, of course, but those trades were bad only because a similar replacement player never stepped up from the ranks, and Tambi never went out to find a replacement player, for some crazy reason either.
ReplyDeleteRacki: Colin Fraser?
i like our larger, tougher defence now, with Whitney, Gilbert, Vandermeer, Smid, Struds, Peckham, and perhaps Petry.
ReplyDeletePlus Foster.
I'd say the defense is worse now than it was at this time last year.
Ack-- Just realized OKC's coaching announcement is tomorrow...
ReplyDelete♪Anticipaaation♪
Right on Kris. I think its important not to get too enamoured with your own prospects. If the Oilers prospects can't beat out good AHLers for roster spots, what chance do they have against NHLers?
ReplyDeleteJohan Motin is 20. Belle is what, 25 now? Motin shouldn't be expected to be better than Belle at this point. The entire concept of a prospect's development is that he gets the required ice-time to better his game so that he isn't a depth AHLer at 25.
That's what I'm finding fault in. We've signed a 25-year old who may or may not be better than a 20-year old.
Put another way, Belle has played seven more NHL games at this point in his career than Alex Plante. Some of you here are making the assumption that Belle might be 8th on the current NHL depth chart, ahead of a player who is younger, bigger, and has more upside.
Belle might be a player, but he's past the point where about 99% of NHL-calibre defenders have their Eureka! moment. He should not be allowed to hinder the development of Plante, Petry or Motin, who are at the very most two years his junior.
MacT in OKC please.
ReplyDeleteDid he take any undergrad psych courses to get his MBA? (pretty please...)
Lowetide: I went to Boston for my 1st year of college, and as a result became a Sox fan.
ReplyDeleteBack then the Red Sox were loveable losers, although often close to contention, ala the Philly flyers of today.
Then they won the WS, and although at first i was really happy, in short order i realised a lot of the aura, the magic, was gone. Nowdays they're another rich team(not quite Yankees but hey), and although i still semi am interested in the standings, seeing the Sox in 2nd kind of makes me feel secure lol.
Johan Motin is 20. Belle is what, 25 now? Motin shouldn't be expected to be better than Belle at this point. The entire concept of a prospect's development is that he gets the required ice-time to better his game so that he isn't a depth AHLer at 25.
ReplyDeleteIf he isn't better than Belle, he can play some games in the ECHL to get some minutes.
There will be injuries to OKC and Edmonton, which will create minutes for him in the AHL even if he can't outplay Belle.
And there is a chance that Belle will develop. 25 is still young for a D-man and all the physical tools are there. He's not a whole lot worse prospect than Motin.
Compare Schremp and Potulny as prospects a while back.
Sometimes older, middling prospects are better than younger late-middle round picks. Not saying that's true here, but it's a reason to spend some resources on guys like Belle, Europeans like Hejda, etc.
kris:
ReplyDeleteFor the last time, stop dissing Schremp!
Plus Foster.
ReplyDeleteI'd say the defense is worse now than it was at this time last year.
Top 6 last year:
----------------
Visnovsky $5.6 MM
Souray $5.4 MM
Gilbert $4.0 MM
Grebeshkov $3.15 MM
Staios $2.7 MM
Smid $1.3 MM
------------------
Total cap hit: $22.15 MM
Top 6* upcoming year:
--------------------
Gilbert $4.0 MM
Whitney $4.0 MM
Vandermeer $2.3 MM
Foster $1.8 MM
Smid $1.3 MM
Strudwick? $0.725 MM
--------------------
Total cap hit: $14.125 MM
(* Assuming no Souray)
1) Of course the defence is worse than at this time last year. The payroll has been reduced by $8 MM.
2) Tambo sure in hell better acquire at least one more real NHL defenceman. Even if the guy costs ~$4 MM, the cap hit of the top 6 would still be ~$5 MM less than 2009-10.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteWill they waive Strudwick when they sign another D, or is his pleasant demeanor jus too much to risk on waivers?
Giroux-Moran-Omark
ReplyDeleteHartikainen-Vande Velde-Reddox
Cornet-O'Marra-McDonald
Kytnar, Marquardt, Hired Goons
Plante-Petiot
Petry-Belle
Chorney-Taylor
Motin
JDD
Pitton
(Forgive me. It's hard for me to tell who can play what position.)
Forward is still a bit weak, IMO. It would be awesome to see OKC start the year with Jacques. (Or one of the kids, if needed.) And that demotion would pretty much have to happen if the Oilers sign an actual NHL'er to help round out the lines. (Still lot's of spots for middling prospects when injury strikes.)
I really think we're developing a much better team to develop the important prospects. This year, they are:
Hartikainen, Petry, Vande Velde, and Plante.
Omark is maybe already developed well and should help the team until he's called up. If not, this team will help him learn the NA game. Chorney should be able to thrive now too.
Am happy with Tambo today.
Downright fierce said:
ReplyDelete"Anon:
I liked Nokelainen-for-Moreau at the deadline (a lot) and I was convinced he would catch on in the PHO system after they swapped him for a 6th rounder. But he didn't.
fpb is off on the details, but dead on about his value's downward trend. Noke's worth, working backwards, is: cap savings (2010 buyout), a flyer (PHO's 6th rounder), a serviceable vet (Steve Montador), and a ~PPG 3rd-year AHLer (Ben Walter & a conditional 2nd).
Something's not clicking, especially if a guy like Tippett can't make it work with the so-called defensive pivot. I agree that it would be a "buy low" move that could pay off, but the Org has Lander and I don't think Noke is on their radar."
That Anon was me, btw.... Blogger was acting up!
Still can't seem to understand how a guy that was drafted 16th overall (although by NYI is not a great endorsement!), and has the attributes that we are looking for (i.e. defence and face offs from the RH draw), at the price that he will be available (<$750K, 2-way deal), may be he can re-invent himself. He is only 24!
Also, the other teams may have been using him in the wrong situations and expecting him to outscore. I have not "seen him good", but may be some one else out there has. As you said, Lander is probably going in to that spot eventually, and I agree. But, we don't get him for at least 1 more year.
Kris: I think the Oilers absolutely want to have Strudwick around. They see him as a positive influence on the kids, and frankly so do I. That excuses quite a bit of bad hockey IMO, if not quite that much bad hockey. ;(
ReplyDeleteIf, OTOH, the organizational strategy is to Bottomfeed for the Swede™, they could hardly have done better. Strudwick contributed brilliantly in '09-10 in the Fall for Hall. I was at one live game where he made a fabulous, falling-on-his-keester backdoor pass to James Neal for the open-netter in the dying seconds of regulation to save the Oilers a dangerous (at the time) Bettman point or even more. Then there was The Shift which became something of a legend at the Copper & Blue, in which Strudwick and Chorney played a continuous sequence of 3:45, facing all 18 Red Wings skaters while being out-Corsied 0-11 (including JDD's Save of the Year candidate). This performance below-and-beyond the call of duty was in the game that clinched last place overall! That's almost team MVP material, in terms of the objectives and outcomes of the '09-10 Edmonton Oilers. :|
In my eyes Strudwick has been something of a lodestone of futility, and for all that I still like the guy, cuz he's a good guy. He's also a good teammate, and maybe one day soon, a good assistant coach. Assistant playing coach in OKC sounds just right to me. He could play on the third paring with, say, Taylor Chorney.
Bruce: 2) Tambo sure in hell better acquire at least one more real NHL defenceman. Even if the guy costs ~$4 MM, the cap hit of the top 6 would still be ~$5 MM less than 2009-10.
ReplyDeleteI agree. We need someone who can actually play in OUR zone. It would add a nice balance to our D if we just had one guy who is characterized more as a shutdown d-man. I think Shaone Morrisson would be a good signing, albeit we will likely have to overpay to get him.
I heard somewhere though that the Oil are talking to Willie Mitchell. He completely fits what we need and has that one skill that we have in abundance here - injury prone. ;) I jest, of course.. aside from the concussion history, he fits the bill perfectly. I'd still take a chance though if he comes in at a cheap price.
Dubnyk on Gregor's show at 3:40pm
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLT - As a White Sox fan, I loved the Cubs dig. :)
ReplyDeleteMaybe posters who expect more from Tambellini V3 don't realize the plan. We're rebuilding, not shooting for the playoffs.
We don't need a playoff team at this point, only steady improvement and a reason to watch the Oilers play.
I'll consider re-signing Gagner then trading Souray and/or Cogliano for a bottom 6 forward and defenseman strong progress.
Rick: I'm not sure if people are expecting more than what you suggest. That's what I hear a lot of people saying... get us a 2nd or 3rd pairing d-man (I prefer a defensive defenceman) and a bottom six guy who can help Horcoff with the PK.
ReplyDeleteI think even with just that added, this team has a good chance at making the playoff cut.
"We don't need a playoff team at this point, only steady improvement and a reason to watch the Oilers play."
ReplyDeletei'm essentially of the same attitude, except i think the org should always be *trying* to make the playoffs.
it's just that during a rebuild you don't want to take risks or overpay players, so despite trying to build a playoff team, you say "no" a lot more.
if you're close, that's when you sign Hossa but until then you keep looking for value, slowly build the core : ]
striatic: bang on, well said!
ReplyDeleteThere's probably little point in trying to construct the team for failure and a shot at first overall again.
ReplyDeleteNot swinging for the fences makes a ton of sense, but any planned dive could be derailed by a number of things just as easily as last year's playoff aspirations were derailed by key injuries.
A healthy Bulin season, a break-out year for Gagner, the long-awaited mega-breakout for Hemmer, injuries to other teams, the East continuing to suck...
Might as well just focus on trying to navigate the balancing act of putting as many of our key guys in the best possible position to succeed/develop, and let the standings take care of themselves.
Apparently Todd Nelson is the new coach for the Barons according to the Edmonton Journal.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see the Oilers get a defensive second pairing guy, and if we need to keep Strudwick as #7 and we think Peckham wouldn't clear waivers, then maybe we send down Vandermeer. But honestly, if we have to go into the season with this sub-standard defensive corps, at least it's Vandermeer and Foster getting killed at evens, instead of Chorney and Plante. That is in itself significant progress for a rebuilding team.
ReplyDeleteAs per the Journal:
ReplyDeleteEDMONTON — Sources say former Atlanta Thrashers assistant coach Todd Nelson will likely be the new Oklahoma City Barons head coach.
The Edmonton Oilers’ American League farm club has been looking for a coach since not rehiring Rob Daum.
Nelson was interviewed for the head coach job with the Edmonton Oil Kings but Derek Laxdal was hired instead. Nelson was on John Anderson’s staff in Atlanta until they cleaned house at the end of the NHL season.
Belle might be a player, but he's past the point where about 99% of NHL-calibre defenders have their Eureka! moment. He should not be allowed to hinder the development of Plante, Petry or Motin, who are at the very most two years his junior.
ReplyDeleteThe Barons only have three veteran defenders in Petoit, Belle, and Taylor. All Motin or any other prospect has to do is beat out one of the other three young guys and the development time is his.
We're looking at prospects who were part of the worst defensive team in the AHL this season. It's not like some absolute gem of a prospect is going to get pushed out of playing time.
These guys have three seasons before they are waiver eligible. two or three of them will probably bust anyway. Keep the best, and flush the rest.
Doritogrande
ReplyDeleteTo the extent you posit Plante is bigger and stronger than Belle..... yeah he is...kinda like Randy Gregg was bigger and stronger than Lee Fogolin.....seriously...not so much. Although Plante and Gregg are definitely taller than Fogolin and Belle
If Belle pans out best case scenario..... he is a very fast skating Jason Smith.... worse case scenario he is a fully adequate # 5-6 Dman. At 600K that is a modest bet and if Peckham gets claimed on waivers...... he is a replacement for that skillset
Different players completely.
I disagree with any assertion that we should let our prospects sink or swim on their own in the AHL we have tried that too...with no success
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