The entry level contract writes itself, so no special credit is due the Edmonton Oilers for signing Taylor Hall today. It is a great moment for the organization. A team that saw its best players--absolute first ballot, inner circle 'at the core of the sport' hall-of-famers--leave the city 10 years (Gretzky, Kurri) and 12 years (Messier) after they arrived should be able to have a few moments in the sun on a day when "the Kid" signs a three year entry level deal. Here's hoping he spends 15 or more in Edmonton as an Oiler.
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Lots of good information out there these days. Ryan Rishaug tweeted this afternoon (I think he just started in the last week or so but has passed along a tremendous amount of information this summer) that it "Doesn't look like the oil have any offers out there right now other than locke. Content to sit tight. Brule is probly a 3 L C option 4 now."
Locke is a smaller AHL player who would help out Oklahoma City should he sign with the Oilers. The information on Brule is especially interesting, because it allows another of the gifted kids into the top 6:
- Horcoff-Hall-Hemsky
- Gagner-Penner-Pääjärvi
- Brule-Cogliano/Omark-Eberle
- Fraser-MacIntyre/Jacques/Jones-Stortini
There are several good NHL skill players (Horcoff, Hemsky, Penner, Gagner, Brule) and a terrific gang of 4 not-yet-NHL skill players (Hall,Pääjärvi, Eberle, Omark). I like Fraser, Jones and Stortini as depth players who won't hurt you in support roles. MacIntyre is the enforcer, Jacques the Crazy Train.
The "Triple-H" line has two fine NHL players and the best amateur on the planet. The PPG line boasts the team's best forward along with a sublime playmaker and a speed demon with hands. The 3line has skill, smarts and some jam and the 4line has some nice things too. This isn't a playoff depth chart. Too many kids, no one to mark the other guy's best forwards and too many spots devoted to protection and agitation (without having skill).
I think Tambellini's "content to sit tight" has a "for now" attached; hopefully it comes from the knowledge that some of the useful 2-way veterans up front will lower their price as the summer rolls on and roster spots don't make themselves available. In a summer where Steve Tambellini has made some solid bets, this looks like another one.
Funny, for weeks now, my approach wrt following the Oilers has been one of analysis, of the draft picks, salaries, player movement etc. But your line of "best amateur on the planet" just struck me and gave me the warm and fuzzies all over. By george, I believe I am getting stoked for September.
ReplyDeletei wonder what the timeline is for gathering a "playoff depth chart" is.
ReplyDeletei'm assuming that the oilers want to make the playoffs before Hall's ELC expires, show some progress that'll get him and the rest of the kids to re-sign.
i don't think they're going to even try to get there next year, as it seems that this year is all about clearing cap space and taking the first steps toward rebalancing the team.
if Hall is going to play here for 15 years, how quickly does the team need to start showing promise, and how much promise does it need to show?
Time to put Gagner on that first line.
ReplyDeleteI think
Penner-Gagner-Hemsky
Hall-Horcoff-Paajarvi
would be very interesting.
Eric MacKenzie reports the Philadephia Flyers won't be re-signing UFA forward Aaron Asham, but he expect to sign with another NHL team soon.
ReplyDeleteI think he'd make a good Oiler.
Aaron ''no skills'' Asham.
ReplyDeleteToo many PIM for such a low production.
I read somewhere that close to 90% of NHL teams cap total has been spent and over 150 players that played in the NHL last year still need a contract.
ReplyDeleteGood to sit and wait at this point.
Smarmy:
ReplyDeleteI think that sitting and waiting is a decent enough approach, but I'm not sure it's one the Oilers are/were planning to do.
If so, what was the rush to sign Strudwick on July 2?
I like Asham, too. Or one of the guys we've talked about for years it seems (Moore, Belanger, R. Neidermayer etc).
ReplyDeleteWhat happens if Brule gets the 2.5+ that he clearly wants from arbitration? Obviously I don't know the numbers at all, but Kulemin's deal for scoring 36 points as a former second round draft pick makes me think Brule - with his 37 points in a shortened season and greater pedigree - is going to ask for slightly more. Do the Oilers walk away?
It would be a good time to have a vet goalie that likes a lot of shots -- like a in-his-prime Cujo -- because a lineup like that will be as exciting as all getout but it will also bleed chances and ergo goals.
ReplyDeleteThe only problem with all of this -- and if we keep the D corps as is then we know we're not even trying to compete for a playoffs spot - - is you burn years off 10-27-83.
waiting at this point is good, but i will be a bit sad if edmonton didn't attempt to sign D Carlo Colaiacovo, who just re-signed in STL or $4.25 million over 2 years.
ReplyDeletei think he'd have been a great fit on the current oilers roster.
o well.
first time in awhile our top 6 has been that big. only 1 guy under 6', in gags. 3rd on the other hand...
ReplyDeleteRe: Not even trying to make playoffs
ReplyDeleteI don't think the team is that bad. Not a ringing endorsement, but let's look at the facts from last year:
(1)No Hemsky for 60 games
(2)Horcoff playing hurt much of the year
(3)Grebeshkov and Staios playing in the top-4 most of the year
(4)O'Sullivan and Nilsson in the top-6
(5)Moreau, playing
(6)Pat Quinn, coaching
Now let's assume the following:
(1+2)Hemsky and Horcoff will be pretty healthy (70-75 games each, without playing hurt)
(3) Whitney and Foster, are better defensively than Staios and Grebeshkov
(4)Hall, Paajarvi, Eberle, Omark will give us more offence than O'Sullivan and Nilsson
(5)Jones will, at worst, take fewer penalties than Moreau, and not be a distraction in the locker room
(6)Renney is a better coach than Quinn
In addition to what's above, I think we can expect some progress from Gagner, especially with a better supporting cast offensively; maybe some dvelopment from Smid too. Fraser is a nice addition to the PK and shores up the middle a bit. Goaltending is obviously a concern, but I think that if we do run with JDD and DD for awhile, that they'll at least be more prepared this year than they were last year.
Lastly, this team will have very little pressure, and young teams often respond under those conditions (SEE St. Louis and Columbus '09, Colorado '10).
The PPG line boasts the team's best forward along with a sublime playmaker and a speed demon with hands.
ReplyDeleteBe sweet if they could be a point per game line. I wonder how difficult MPS will find playing defense on the off-wing at the NHL level. Still, it's not like it hasn't been done before. I'd also prefer the better shooter/finisher to be to Gagner's left. But with this new infusion of talented prospects, line combinations are going to be a lot more fun than they have been in the past. FPB's suggestion is good too.
speeds said...
If so, what was the rush to sign Strudwick on July 2?
I think that was a hat tip to Strudwick by management. I don't think there was any particular rush. I think the Oilers wanted him and knew at what price and he was delighted with it, so why not get it out of the way? The Oil know exactly what they're getting with Strudwick. There are a bunch more important things to get on with.
Dennis said...
The only problem with all of this -- and if we keep the D corps as is then we know we're not even trying to compete for a playoffs spot - - is you burn years off 10-27-83.
This is the whole crux of the future. If we're not going to commit to make things happen for this trio now, then the plan should be to continue to suck to replace them.
It appears we're running between the two options, doing neither well.
A lot depends on the return for Souray(+). But if he won't be taken for free off waivers...
There's a good chance we're a lottery team again next year if this is the team we go forward with. Then again, that's not necessarily a bad thing.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see us sign one more defencemen with some puck moving skills (Colaiocovo would've been a good option, there's still a few more out there), especially if we don't get much of a return from Souray.
I wanted the Oilers to aquire Mike Sillinger (until I found out about his injury of course) after we traded Stoll and let Reasoner walk away for nothing. Now I think it would be a good idea to go out and sign the new Sillinger in Dominic Moore. Seems like the perfect fit in the 3rd line C role, but it is a little curious that he's played well for a number of teams, and none of them seemed interested in bringing him back. Is he a negative influence in the locker room or something? Nobody wants anything to do with him in July, but everyone seems to want him at the deadline.
ReplyDeleteI also forgot to mention that Chorney played over 40 games last year. Vandermeer is a pretty nice upgrade defensively I'd say.
ReplyDeleteGilbert-Grebs -- Whitney-Gilbert
Visnovsky-Smid - Smid-Foster
Staios-Struds -- Vandermeer-Peckham
Chorney-*Souray- Struds-Petiot
Arsense Chorney-Plante
*Souray played 37 games
The only guys from last year that played decent defence were Gilbert, Smid, and Visnovsky. 2 of 3 are still here, and we added some decent (not great - decent) pieces to complement them.
This defence is a lot less flashy, but it's bigger, more physical, and a lot deeper. Hopefully it's less mistake prone too(think Grebeshkov). The only guy that I see as a loss is Visnovsky. Grebeskov was chaos, Staios isn't big, can't skate, and takes bad penalties. Souray is a 3rd pairing d-man with a big shot (and takes dumb penalties galore), and Chorney out of the top-6 is a blessing. Yeah, Vandermeer and Peckham will take some penalties, but they'll also punish some people, unlike Staios.
Looking at that top 6 it's difficult not to feel a tinge of optimism. Most definitely not yet a playoff caliber team, but for the first time in a long time, headed in the right direction.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think the playoffs are just around the corner, unless the plan is to move forward without Hemsky and/or Penner.
If the plan is to resign them or at least to push hard to attempt to sell them on staying, the team has to move in the right direction next year and be playoff capable the year following.
This is very much within reach and a capable GM should be able to pull it off in light of the current foundation: not perfect, but steady.
Still, put in the camp who think that another season of tanking might be necessary if we're truly going to build a Cup contender.
I wonder if any arbitration case has had the precedent set where a player is meant to give the team back a portion of their salary...
ReplyDeleteIn other news, JF Jacques has filed for arbitration.
http://nhlpa.com/News/Media-Releases/Details.aspx?R=1E52ADDA-1463-4FCC-9857-880687AB2234
Eeesh.
I guess paying his medical bills do not count towards the total compensation package.
ReplyDeleteIn other news, JF Jacques has filed for arbitration.
ReplyDeleteI would dearly love to sit in on the arbitration hearing on this one. What is his rep going to say?
Anon:
ReplyDeleteHuh. Deslauriers too.
At least it gives the Org another opportunity to walk away from them.
Although I feel like they might somehow end up convincing the mediator to give Jacques a bigger salary.
So besides Gilbert the two Oilers to file for arbitration are:
ReplyDeleteJDD
JFJ
FFS.
Looking at that top 6 it's difficult not to feel a tinge of optimism. Most definitely not yet a playoff caliber team, but for the first time in a long time, headed in the right direction.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think the playoffs are just around the corner, unless the plan is to move forward without Hemsky and/or Penner.
If the plan is to resign them or at least to push hard to attempt to sell them on staying, the team has to move in the right direction next year and be playoff capable the year following.
This is very much within reach and a capable GM should be able to pull it off in light of the current foundation: not perfect, but steady.
Oh, good grief.
The Oilers don't have reliable NHL goaltending, they have no top pairing defensemen on the roster or in the system, the bottom six is a mess, they have 2 legit first line players and the second line has potential but is wet behind the ears.
Nothing is "very much in reach". Nothing.
Oh, and the GM thinks Jacques and MacIntyre are NHL players.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMeant Gilbert Brule, not Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteIs a NHL team able to walk from two arbitration rulings in one year?
Good opportunity to fix the mistake of qualifying JFJ, and if JDD gets anything over 1 million, just walk.
MattN...
ReplyDeleteRemeber...this guy is THE reason the Oilers dropped down from Parise to Pouliot.
That's gotta be worth a cool million!
Man oh man I'm tired of locking backwards...hopefully Hall helps us look forwards.
I imagine that JFJ's agent will be pointing out that Derek Boogard is paid 1.66 million dollars and can barely skate. The Oilers have also signed Steve McIntyre who pushes a chair in front of him while on the ice previous to dropping the gloves. While JFJ while a work in progress has size, grit and sufficient athletic ability to skate at an NHL level and sucess at the AHL level. In Gary Bettman's NHL you pay on projected levels of performance and JFJ projects to be exactly the sort of hockey player the Edmonton Oilers dearly need a big man who can skate, play the game and throw some punches.
ReplyDeleteOr at least I'd say something like that if I was his agent.
I like your lines LT, although, just could be that we're forgetting how well Eberle and Hall play together. Guess we'll see. . . Question: In the event that things do not go well for the Bulin Wall in AZ and his court-ordered punishment in fact gives the club the legal right to terminate his contract, do you think the Oilers will do so?
ReplyDeleteShould be a fun year, although Oilers won't make the playoffs. We still need a dominant center someone like Martin Hanzel. I wonder what it would take to get him from Phoenix.
ReplyDeleteI guess we could say that this is the "Summer of Steve", hahahahaha. Seems like we have too many survivors on the island lowetide? Trades a brewin'. Cogs a movin? Those depth charts are going 6 one-ways deep.
ReplyDeleteGagner and Hemsky don't work. It's been tried and failed. They both carry the puck, and Penner doesn't dish. Run our one proven PvP line in Hemmer, Horcs and Penner, then send the kids (Eberle/Svensson, Hall, Gagner) over the boards against the mush and hope they don't get their teeth kicked in.
ReplyDeleteOn that note, it's not only important to show some quick progress to keep guys like Hemsky and Penner interested in staying in Etown, but also to the kids. I can't imagine anything worse than having all this young talent on the team and running it out there night after night when they don't have a chance in hell of picking up the W. This team might not need to win down, but they'd better show a marked improvement.
Not sure if this is old news or not, but Bob Probert died of a heart condition today at age 45. I had no idea he scored goals, let alone amassing 60 points in a season.
ReplyDeleteRest in Peace.
Does everyone still think the Foster signing was such good value given the terms under which TB inked Clark?
ReplyDeleteKeeping Horcoff and his wiffing of everything that comes his way is not the incentive Penner and Hemsky need to stay. It's one of the reasons they want to leave.
ReplyDeleteIn other news, JF Jacques has filed for arbitration.
ReplyDeleteI would dearly love to sit in on the arbitration hearing on this one. What is his rep going to say?
From one of the earlier comment threads, I seem to recall that the second buyout window (the August one) is only open for teams who have at least two players who have filed for arbitration.
If Jacques has filed for arbitration, my money is on the Organization asking him to. Now, the only reason to ask someone to is if you are thinking of buying a player out.
Sounds to me like the Steve is going to go scorched earth on 44 if he can't make a deal before then.
I just wanted to take a moment to express my gratefulness to Lowetide for getting the "Hall-mark" pun out of the way early and, incidentally, using it where it will probably be the most appropriate. I was secretly hoping TSN and Gene Principe would follow suit.
ReplyDeleteJordan - that would be a very clever move. When two players file for arbitration is the buyout limited to those two players or to anyone on the team? i.e., could we buy out Souray if JFJ and Brule went to arbitration? or would it have to be one of JFJ or Brule?
ReplyDeleteJordan - that would be a very clever move.
ReplyDeleteIf JFJ and Brule file for arbitration can we only buy out one of those two players or can it be any other player on the team (e.g., Souray)?
Aw man, I finally know what it's like to have a comment disappear. Unless someone finds the word "pun" offensive. Then I am just abrasive and rude.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers will still have trouble matching up against other teams, so it may be better for the Oilers to arrange their lines to give other teams problems matching up with them.
ReplyDeletePaajarvi, Horcoff, Hemsky
Hall, Gagner, Eberle
Penner, trade Cogs for a better 2-way guy, Brule
Jones, Fraser, Stortini
SMac, Jacques
Other teams have to respect Hemsky, which will leave Penner's line or the kid line with a winning matchup.
Edmonton has been the same team for years, small, fast, and young, always looking like they will get better every year, but what happens they don't get better, they have made no progress for years. They really have no core players, they should have had some core players in these last few years. Maybe they will get lucky with the new crop of players, but it will be luck because they have had no vision for years and the proof is in the pudding. Edmonton should take a look how the Stanley Cup winners have won. Edmonton does not have any centers worthy of playing in the Cup. Why?
ReplyDeleteper Ryan Rishaug's twitter:
ReplyDeleteHall bonuses212,500 for any of20 goals35 assists60ptsTop 6 fw ice time (min42gp)Top 3 F in plus minus on team(875max A bonus)
also:
capgeek says 8 other teams besides Hawks with cap penalties. Oilers included @$400K.
I'm curious LT, what is your inclination as to the dollars and term's for each of our 9 RFA's?
ReplyDeleteHow do you expect this to pan out (perhaps a good blog posting idea?)
A lot depends on the return for Souray(+). But if he won't be taken for free off waivers...
ReplyDeleteI think that's a bit of a false assumption. Not many teams can afford to take him for free. They need to send back salary.
I feel your pain Showerhead.
ReplyDeletespeeds:
ReplyDeleteAgreed with spOILer. As well, I bet this has something to do with the org getting Hall to bunk with Strudder and his wife this season. If so the move may have more to do with Hall than Strudwick
I agree Anon... They should have taken the other guy
ReplyDelete