This is Cornelius Madigan. They called him Connie. Or Mad Dog. Or probably any number of names that you really shouldn't repeat in mixed company.Connie Madigan is (officially) the oldest rookie ever to play in the NHL. The league changed the rules 30 years ago to make sure those damn Europeans didn't win the Calder trophy (I blame Hitler, or at least Chamberlain), so Connie is safe from evildoers like Helmut Balderis (that rat bastard. He cleverly got himself born in a communist country that wouldn't release him to play in the NHL until age 37. Fricking Russians, they're so clever.). Even then, Cornelius would hold the record, being that he was 38 years old at the start of the 1972-73 season when St. Louis sent him out onto NHL ice for the first time.
Every time I see Slap Shot! (once a year or you're not Canadian--Madigan was Ross "Mad Dog" Madison in the movie) I think of two things: Connie Madigan's bus rides during most of 20 years in the minors; and that Nancy Dowd should be in the Hockey Hall of Fame.
--
I don't honestly know what to make of the Alexandre Giroux signing. We've talked about this player before but always in the context of the minor leagues. If we're going to remain true to math (our Overlord) then we have to acknowledge Giroux's last two minor league seasons (when run through Desjardins) imply a 20+ goal scorer at the NHL level.
So when we're discussing the LW depth chart, Giroux has to be in the mix. The question is where?
- Dustin Penner
- Taylor Hall
- Ryan Jones
- Alexandre Giroux
- Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson
- Linus Omark
- Steve MacIntyre
- JF Jacques
- Liam Reddox
Is that about right? We know MacIntrye is 14F, so he makes the club along with the top 4LW. So Giroux becomes MPS's competition in camp. Should the kid lose the battle, he would be sent to either the AHL or back to the SEL in Sweden. The Oilers could push back Paarjavi's entry level contract by one year; considering the fact that Hall's clock will start clicking in the fall that makes some sense.
What say you? Is that a reasonable outcome (should Giroux earn the job)? At the very least, this was a very interesting signing.
There must be something I'm missing about Ryan Jones. In the many proposed depth charts put forth by LT and others, he seems to be firmly penciled in as a "gritty" 3rd line left winger. We claimed him off waivers from Nashville and saw him for exactly half a shift before the meathead Boogard took him out with a knee. Upon his return I don't recall him screwing up, but he didn't seem overly gritty to me and he was, at best, unspectacular. What is it I'm missing about Jones?
ReplyDeleteGiroux is the player to be waived later.
ReplyDeleteHe is not a good, but an exceptional AHLer and has earned a shot at the NHL the hard way.
Who is going to fight harder for the roster spot Giroux or MPS?
No more open doors ahead of kids.
I would give Giroux the spot in camp. MPS has to take the job away from a desperate, grown man.
The moment I was convinced MPS is better than this exceptional AHLer, I'd bring MPS up and send Giroux down.
If the stars align, Giroux gets claimed and gets an NHL job somewhere else.
Everybody wins.
Not an easy spot for Giroux. The fans are going to ride him hard if he makes the team ahead of MPS. (especially if he's as clumsy as I suspect)
btw - good on Giroux. Most guys drafted where he was are fixing Maytags by now. He's making NHL minimum in the AHL.
I thought Omark is a RW.
LT - Thanks for this post.
Frelbo: The absence of alternatives means Jones is the most notable option available.
ReplyDeleteDeano: I think Omark can play either.
I realize the depth chart on the Oiler's website (http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=33403) is most likely an arrangement based on games played in the NHL by position, but I was wondering if folks think there's any credence to Brule being lined up as a centre and Cogliano and MPS listed as right wingers.
ReplyDeleteWith a new coach coming in we may see some shuffling. I do know MPS has played some RW.
ReplyDeleteI do like the depth that is being created, both for competitiveness at camp and bodies on the farm... it'll be interesting if they sign that checking/veteran center ie. Rob Niedermeyer as that will seem to create an even bigger logjam amongst the forwards no matter how much they shuffle people around (depending on how the rooks perform I suppose).
ReplyDeleteI'm interested to see how Omark and Van Velde perform as 23 year olds. Those are the dark horses in my books.
It's difficult to lay out a depth chart because MPS and Jones play either wings and Brule doesn't have a position yet.
ReplyDeleteDustin Penner
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall
Ryan Jones
Alexandre Giroux
Jones is a 4th Liner,
Giroux & McIntyre a step or five below.
Does Giroux actually play Center, as he is sometines listed?
Should the kid lose the battle, he would be sent to either the AHL or back to the SEL in Sweden. The Oilers would push back Paarjavi's entry level contract by one year, which considering the fact that Hall's clock will start clicking in the fall may make some sense.
ReplyDeleteIts my understanding that if he's in the AHL his clock starts ticking on the ELC. It wouldn't in the SEL.
He (or Eberle for that matter) wouldn't make NHL money, but the time in the AHL counts on the contract.
The more I think about the Hall, MPS, and Eberle as individual players, the more I think that these 3 won't spend much time in the AHL.
Not out of the team pushing them too quickly, but by earning spots.
Eberle has already hit AAA pitching for .380, and MPS has been a pro for 2 years and was a Mens World Championship Allstar.
The only one of the three who hasn't proved himself against pros is Hall, and by all accounts it won't be an issue.
Its not like the Oilers have three "normal" rookies looking for spots, these 3 are special and might not get killed right away like most rookies do.
No problem with making them earn the spots, but by all accounts MPS and Hall should blow the doors off the joint and Eberle is already 2nd on the Oiler RW depth chart.
I think Eberle will have the toughest transition of the 3 due to size and foot speed, but his brain should compensate for a lot of that.
Also,
ReplyDeleteIs it clear that Hall "could" play in the AHL as a 19 year old since he already has 3 years of CHL?
I've seen that assumption in a few places.
Woodguy: Hmmm. I know Eberle's clock starts ticking because he's 20, but thought MPS could play in the AHL without starting the clock.
ReplyDeleteIf that is the case, then it weakens Giroux's position imo.
WG - Hall is not AHL eligible. Rule is 4 years in the CHL (min 25 games) or too old for the WJC.
ReplyDeleteI think mt info is correct.
ReplyDeleteDerek Zona knows it cold, perhaps he will chime in.
Thanks Deano.
ReplyDeleteNHL a lock for him then.
My info is seconhand from a poster on HF who was contacting the leagues....
ReplyDeletewe're on the same page here bcos whn i saw we'd signed this guy i was thinking he was a roadblock 4 th kids or insurance in case eberle or mps wasnt ready for th show; hall"s the golden child with nothing left to prove so he's set in stone but the rest of the kids just might be on their own.
ReplyDeletein fact whn we look at the d situation -- value or expiring contracts aside there was no real quality added plus they were just willing to waive 44 aside -- and the fact we dont have many guys who can match theres every chance tambo"s once again aiming us for the toilet and a top 5 pick in 2011.
and thats not a terrible idea except that you waste years on 27 and 83 even though one if not both of them are likely to be dealt by this time next year.
Giroux = Training Camp Fodder
ReplyDeleteHmmm...
ReplyDeleteJust re-read section 9.1 of the CBA which deals with ELCs and I don't see any reason why MPS's ELS wouldn't be delayed by a year if he doesn't play 10 games in the NHL.
One exception is if he turns 20 before Dec 31, but he was born April, 1991, so that doesn't apply.
Sorry about the bad info earlier in the thread.
I like the idea of competition for jobs, its something that they have talked about previously (never done) and it means that OKC might have a decent team.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: No worries. NHL General Managers don't know some of this stuff. :-)
ReplyDeleteNot that this counts for a whole lot going into this year's TC but last year, Eberle damn near made the team and was considered to be one of the most effective players at the whole camp. Unless he really takes a step backwards, I think we can pencil him into the line-up. Same goes for MPS and Hall. We will have 3 bare ass rookies starting that 1st game and as long as they all earned their spots, I'm fine with that.
ReplyDeletepboy: Yeah, I think they all make it to be honest (Hall, MPS, Eberle). Might as well let them grow together, it worked pretty well for the boys on the last bus. :-)
ReplyDeleteThe gazelles will get their chances soon enough.
ReplyDeleteGo warthog!
Go warthog!
ReplyDeleteThey signed Neidermayer?
LT,
Thanks.
I've seen Giroux listed as a RW as well and if that's the case he might end up slotting in really well as a 3rd line RW on a line that looks something like MPS/Brule/Giroux.
ReplyDeleteHe's apparently gritty enough to be on a checking line and certainly has the size and can skate, and with Brule and MPS he just might be able to make some of that AHL offense wake up in the NHL.
I brought up the possibility of signing Giroux in the summer of 2009. 60 goals, in any league, is crazy.
ReplyDeleteOpportunity is one of the most underestimated factors in determining whether a hockey player has an NHL career. Giroux can only play top 6 as his skill set isn't applicable for the bottom 6, which means there are only about 120 skill-only wingers in the world who have permanent spots in the NHL. Scorers get paid and players that get paid need to continue to perform or else they become targets. We've seen how razor thin the edge between second line scorer and press box/AAAA AHLer is and these guys pop over that line and back under all the time. Kristian Huselius, Ales Kotalik, Patrick O'Sullivan, Michael Ryder, Robert Nilsson and Alex Tanguay. These are all guys that looked like 1st liners at times and press box fodder at others.
Giroux may be a marginal NHLer (and he'll always be one slump away from the AHL) but lets look at it the other way for a moment shall we? Would any current Oiler score 60 in the AHL? Maybe Penner? Goal scoring + similar opportunity will often lead to similar goal scoring.
Jason Spezza:
AHL-32 goals
NHL (2 seasons later)-34 goals in 67 games.
Mike Cammelerri:
AHL-46 goals
NHL (2 seasons later)- 34 goals
Tomas Vanek:
AHL-42 goals
NHL-43 goals (2 seasons later)
Eric Staal:
AHL-45 goals
NHL-38 goals (2 seasons later)
Obviously these players were younger and improved a lot during those 2 seasons so Giroux would never score anywhere near 60 goals. I'd bet my house that he'd get 25 if he played 82 games/top 6/PP (ie. same opportunity as the guys above) and I wouldn't be surprised if he scored over 30.
My biggest fear with Giroux is that he's a year too late. He would have had that opportunity last year but this year, hmmm.
You know who else scored a bunch of goals in the AHL? Ryan Potulny and we couldn't be bothered to give the guy a two way contract. Heck he'd scored fifteen in the NHL which is more than this Giroux fellow has done.
ReplyDeleteStrange signing as far as I'm concerned unless this is clearly meant to shore up OKC.
Ah, all is well with the Al Gore...... open Lowtide and there is a fresh post!!!!
ReplyDeleteLife is Good!
Actually for much of his AHL career Giroux was a center. His playing left wing started when the Bears added Keith Aucoin. It is also when Giroux's goals went through the roof. Giroux is big and strong but is a bit like Cowboy Flett. That is to say he scores by shooting, gets on streaks - both hot and cold, and sometimes is more than a little indifferent to the game. He can however be gritty and aggressive with and without the puck.
ReplyDeleteIf you wanted a really weird third line you could in fact, given he was a decent faceoff man, go with Giroux at center with MPS and Brule on the wings. Giroux isn't a bad skater and loves to come late. The three of them would score some goals and get killed defensively.
The book on Ryan Jones, is that in college, and in limited time in the NHL, he has shown he is a skilled forechecker who loves the hard areas of the ice. He scores garbage goals and tip ins. He also wears opponents down being exceedingly strong on his skates and on the puck. He isn't, however, a flashy thrower of body checks or a fast skater. Not to mention his shot wouldn't break a pane of glass and he still struggles with his defensive assignments at the NHL level.
Giroux is actually closer to being a third line LW than Jones. Jones is your classic energy guy and perfect for a 4LW with upside who can work your 2nd PP if you need a net crasher.
Jones is just not suited for the 3rd line.
ReplyDeleteHe doesn't possess the necessary skill, could work for a while but not a long term goodie.
Giroux would be more reasonable, and I don't think he's in DIRECT competition with MPS, I don't think he would bother changing wing, or playing center as he did sometimes in the AHL.
He's basically suppose to fit in any hole. To me he's very useful, because he'l play on your 3rd line, and can jump in and play with the skilled guys without looking out of place. Ville Leino anyone?
I think it's his true value. He can play top 6, but he can sit until someone gets pinched because he doesn't care, he's in the NHL for his 1st time. (Long term). If a bottom 6 guys gets injured, there's a plethora of AHL guy or waiver wire guys you can get. Top 6 ? not so much.
According to Larry Brooks the Oilers offered Boogaard more $$$ than the Rangers
ReplyDelete$7M over 4 years as opposed to the 6.6 over 4 that he took.
Lordy.
Tyler mentioned the other day that v3.0 was just doing the easy stuff and seeing how he spends his new found cash is the real test.
Thank God he didn't get a chance to flunk that one.
Hockey Gods save the Oilers from themselves yet again.
Not good.
Woodguy said:
ReplyDelete"The more I think about the Hall, MPS, and Eberle as individual players, the more I think that these 3 won't spend much time in the AHL."
Exactly. I'm kind of puzzled why there seems to be a lot of people rooting for these guys to spend time in the AHL.
In my opinion, they have all shown their ready, and unless one of them takes a dump in training camp, they should play. Paajarvi could probably use a little more practice on the small ice surface, so I could see them sending him down for a little bit, but he's should be an oiler almost right away.
I don't see the benefit of holding dominant players down. They need to learn the NHL game, and every shift helps.
Someone did a $/minute played comparison for Ovechkin and Boogaard for next year if they play the same amount of minutes as they averaged last year:
ReplyDeleteOvechkin ave: 21:47/gm x 82 games =1786 minutes
$9,538,462/1786 = $5340.86/min
Boogaard ave: 6:09/gm x 82 games = 504 minutes
$1,650,000/504 = $3273/minute
Oilers would have paid him $3472/minute
Crazy.
Exactly. I'm kind of puzzled why there seems to be a lot of people rooting for these guys to spend time in the AHL.
ReplyDeleteMost rookies are making a huge jump if they go into the NHL, as its usually from the CHL or NCAA for North Amercian players.
The difference is speed, skill, level, physical intensity, etc can be too much for most to handle, so an intermediate step, like the AHL is a good place to bring your game up a level before trying it in the NHL.
Good prospects can get killed (literary and figuratively) by not getting a chance to learn the pro game away from the NHL. (ie. Brule and a huge list of others)
Its usually good for the prospect and makes for an easier transition and a longer career.
That being said, Eberle has shown in a small sample, that he scores over 1ppg in the AHL (a benchmark for making to the next level)
MPS played in the SEL, which is close to the AHL in terms of a relative league to the NHL.
And Hall is Hall. The new hockey Jesus who (probably) can't go the AHL, its either junior or the NHL and this kid has nothing left to prove at the junior level.
WG: Yes but Brule never dominated his league and jumped right into it.
ReplyDeleteIt's those borderline kids (75-80 juniot points) who usually get burned.
That number would be even uglier if you took into account the amount of games Boogaard is PB'd.
ReplyDeleteBoogaard averaged 51 games over the last 5 years and Ovechkin averaged 79.2 int he same time period.
You might even say that number would be 55% uglier.
The difference in dollars between the NYR and Oiler contract is not much. $100,000 a year? That story isn't a story.
ReplyDeleteCount me in the "earn your way to the show" camp.
ReplyDeleteHall is a lock because he is the Chosen One and he isn't going back to the O.
Giroux is taking either MPS or Eberle's spot. This is a good thing. I would like both of them to do 20 games in the A to show that they belong.
That won't happen. I think one of these (my money is on Eberle) will start the year with the big club.
Tambellini said they backed off of Boogaard when the dollars got too high.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe Larry Brooks' report at all. Pure fiction. That offer would not fit into Tambo's current business plan - and he said as much.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: The dollars were the same. I don't think this happened (Sather probably fed Brooks the info to frame the issue) but even if it did these are two similar offers.
ReplyDeletePut another way, if Boogaard wanted to play for the Oilers he could have said "NYR had given me another $100,000 a year. Match and I'll sign" but he didn't.
Either he didn't want to play in EDM or the Oilers offer was pulled long before the Ranger deal was struck.
Maybe Boogaard's agent said "the Oilers are still there" and got Slats to throw in an extra million. THAT I believe.
Anyone else curious if the NHL gets tougher on Boogard now that he is in the East? They will not want to see Crosby and Ovechkin targeted by the Boogeyman.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe Larry Brooks' report at all. Pure fiction. That offer would not fit into Tambo's current business plan - and he said as much.
ReplyDeleteI hope so.
LT,
I hope Brooks' report is false because over payments is part of the problem and if they offered Boogaard $7m its an overpayment. 6.6 is an overpayment. It might be a slight one, but we have seen "death by 1000 papercuts" before.
I think it was Risaug who said ST backed off when the bidding got high on Boogaard, be a shame if that was not true and he was actually the highest bidder.
QuizmasterZero said:
ReplyDeleteI'm kind of puzzled why there seems to be a lot of people rooting for these guys to spend time in the AHL.
Because when you hand kids opportunities that they have not earned, they end up unmotivated.
What's wrong with MPS, Eberle and Omark having to prove that they are exceptional AHLers before they become NHLers?
If they are ready for the NHL it will be obvious very quickly. This 'mistake' is undone very easily. The other way is much harder to correct.
As I have said before: be surprised when the kids are ready for the NHL instead of being bewildered when they are not.
No more Cogliano's.
Don't ask 'em if they want to be an Oiler. make them want to be an Oiler.
(I also would not mind it if the kids made the club out of camp and were demoted after getting a taste like Getzlaf and Perry were.)
Larry Brooks doesn't have the best reputation in NY. I've seen a lot of his rumours and speculations over the years and I've always found them to be on the same level as Eklunds.
ReplyDeleteDeano,
ReplyDeleteGreat point.
I must point out that we have exeptionally strong prospects compared to what the 1st year blowouts usually are.
ReplyDelete(1st OV pick, CHL player of the year and SEL top sixer.)
These guys are much much more NHL ready than some who graduated on theyr first year.
Wait just tought of something.
ReplyDeleteWe waived Macintyre while we were the worst team in the NHL and now he has a guaranteed spot?
WTF?
Wait just tought of something.
ReplyDeleteWe waived Macintyre while we were the worst team in the NHL and now he has a guaranteed spot?
WTF?
As any idiot can see, the reason we did so poorly last year is because we dressed too many forwards capable of playing hockey at an NHL level.
Steve: In Macintyre's case, i would plain and simply say play Hockey.
ReplyDeleteThe only level he prooved to be useful was the CEHL. God knows what that is.
Just found out. That's a joke, it's a beer league.
''Now accepting registrations for teams/individual entries for 2010-2011 season
Guaranteed 20 league games + playoffs + awards
Sunday nights 5-11pm League starts Sept 26 to April
Saturday 2-8pm League starts Sept 26 to April''
Macintyre produced at PPG IN A BEER LEAGUE.
Guys, we found our way to the NHL. Just prepare your knuckles.
LT: you"re not gonna believe this but the newest writer over at Brownlee;s site just wrote that that he was encouraged by either of foster or vandermeer being smid;s partner in the second pairing.
ReplyDeletei think the guy was just trying to goad me into posting:)
According to Wikipedia, the Continental Elite Hockey League was an unaffiliated junior A league. Mind you, according to the same article, Steve MacIntyre is one of the top fighters in all of hockey.
ReplyDeleteSteve: Hmm. I guess one of the coaches/player being called Sean Macintyre fooled me.
ReplyDeleteI think it's even worse since it's Junior A.
A great bunch of Beer leagues have better level of competition than Junior A.
God. PPG at Junior A. Wtf.
(You can still play junior at 21?)
Dennis: WAIT until my "Lupul=Bossy" post! :-)
ReplyDeleteI kind of had hopes they'd just use Giroux in OKC, but he basically turned down other teams because he wanted at shot at the NHL and is confident the Oilers are giving it to him.
ReplyDeleteIn honesty, I'd rather see him up here than all of our kids (Hall, Eberle, MPS, Omark). I'd just like to see us a bit more patient with them all. Maybe one or two up here would be nice though.
Deano said:
ReplyDelete"As I have said before: be surprised when the kids are ready for the NHL instead of being bewildered when they are not."
very good point.
And Paajarvi should probably start in the minors.
but,
Eberle has already played twenty games in the A and has shown he's ready (at least from a statistical pov) for the show. He was the CHL player of the year last year. What more does a guy gotta do?
And I think Hall is and should be a lock. These are not typical prospects we're talking about.
Training camp will be the decider obviously, but from a "minor league at bat" point of view, Eberle has plenty, as does (arguably) Paajarvi.
I don't think we should rush the prospects, but when the prospects leave you little choice they should get a chance.
And Paajarvi should probably start in the minors.
ReplyDeletebut,
Eberle has already played twenty games in the A and has shown he's ready (at least from a statistical pov) for the show. He was the CHL player of the year last year. What more does a guy gotta do?
What if Eberle already had two full seasons playing against grown men in the pros, and was named an all star at the Men's World Championship along with Datsyuk and Malkin?
That's what MPS has done and many think he should spend a year in the AHL.
He may need to, but out of Hall, MPS and Eberle, MPS is the only one with a long resume playing against men.
He is probably the most ready out of the 3.
Wg: It's not NECESSARY.
ReplyDeleteWe shouldn't hold back rookies for the sake of it.
It's case by case evaluation. If you don't then idk what the fuck your doing holding a TC.
QM0 said:
ReplyDeleteWhat more does [Eberle] gotta do?
Look 'in his element' at the World Championships against teams that have a significant number of NHLers on their rosters (not Norway). He did not.
Hall is a lock because the AHL is not an option for him.
MPS is a much trickier situation because he supposedly has an out clause to bolt back to Timra instead of playing in the AHL. A lot is riding on him being NHL-ready quickly.
Deano,
ReplyDeleteI read an interview with MPS and remember reading him saying he's coming over with the intention of staying, even if it meant time in the AHL.
Doesn't mean he won't bolt if he has that option, but its a good sign.
He's NHL big and faster than most NHL players. If Eberle hit AHL pitching, MPS will destroy it.
If he goes to the farm, it won't be for long.
"He is probably the most ready out of the 3."
ReplyDeleteOkay. I thought the A might help Paajarvi get used to the small ice, but if that's not such a big deal then he should play in the show.
Maybe Eberle needs more practice in the AHL ( I don't know) but from the boxcars he's ready.
The NHL will help Hall more then Junior would, and he's not going back for good reason.
Why can't the team be patient with them and still play them in the show? It's not like we should expect them to be world beaters right away anyway.
Did I mention that MPS has strong muscular thighs?
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
ReplyDeleteOnce MPS comes over, he's unlikely to head home after a week or two but the '4 or 5 game' quote scares me. He's probably under by half and we play twice as many games so...
Is he prepared for 20 games in the AHL?
Given the contract situation as L.T. Alluded to earlier, MPS probably has the greatest probability of playing some AHL time.
ReplyDeleteThe point about getting used to smaller ice is a good one.
QM0 said:
ReplyDeleteWhy can't the team be patient with them and still play them in the show?
Because that is an 'or' condition not an 'and' condition. The NHL is not a development league.
That's what LT's 'porridge' teams do.
"Because that is an 'or' condition not an 'and' condition. The NHL is not a development league."
ReplyDeleteSo players don't develop in their rookie seasons? The NHL certainly isn't a minor league, but every lesson learned helps development.
What better teachers then the best in the world?
Based on what I saw in the WHC (and how MacT used him), Eberle is not ready for Chara's class or Pronger's class.
ReplyDelete"Based on what I saw in the WHC (and how MacT used him), Eberle is not ready for Chara's class or Pronger's class."
ReplyDeleteNot yet, sure.
I know that I learn more when I am challenged, and I think that the same is true for most people.
What good is it for a talent who has been elite his whole career to beat up on guys who couldn't make the NHL?
Maybe he would gain alot of confidence, but he comes across as a very confident player, so screw it, let him gain confidence from success over the best players, and if it doesn't work out, ease off and send him down for a bit. Why not?
Because placing them in position to fail slows their progress.
ReplyDeleteDid you watch the WHC?
Here's what happened in the second season after their draft to the 5 guys drafted #22 before Eberle.
2007 Max Pacioretty 37 AHL games
2006 Claude Giroux 33 AHL games
2005 Matt Lashoff (D) 64 AHL games
2004 Lukas Kaspar full AHL season
2003 Marc Pouliot full QMJHL season
Your turn - Why were all of the teams that drafted these players wrong to cut them from their NHL teams?
Capgeek.com indicates that MPS's 3 year entry level contract is "SR" meaning his "contract will slide if player does not appear in 11 NHL games"
ReplyDeleteIt's probably in the team's best interest long term idea to keep him down in OKC.
You do want to keep the player happy too. If he really deserves NHL ice time beyond any reasonable doubt and they keep him down, it could make him bolt home or demand a trade or something ugly.
I'm not saying any of them were wrong to cut those guys. And if the Oilers cut Eberle, I'm not saying they'd be wrong either.
ReplyDeleteAll of those organizations have WAY more knowledge and experience then I do.
But none of those guys just won the CHL player of the year. And even though I don't know shit, I'll put money down that Eberle will be better then all of them.
QM0 - go look into the CHL players of the year (Wikipedia has a list) and separate them into guys who won the year that they were drafted and guys that won the year after they were drafted (like Eberle). It is not as meaningful of a predictor as you think.
ReplyDeleteIf Eberle helps the Oilers as much as Giroux helps the Flyers I will be very happy.
Eberle is small and slow. That is not a winning combination.
But he has scored a few very important goals and helped beat up Norway at the senior level.
Deano,
ReplyDeleteEberle is not large and not fast. That is different than being small and slow. He has an elite level, NHL plus, skill. He is a goal scorer, a good one. He finds a way to get in position to score, often going to the hard areas to do it. He isn't going to learn anything about goal scoring playing in the AHL.
That said, he has the reputation of being a bit lazy and not positionally strong on defence. Those are certainly issues that you can work on in the AHL. You can also work on them in sheltered minutes in the NHL. Whether he stays or goes down should be determined entirely by whether or not he earns the job in training camp, that is whether or not he outcompetes the other guys.
This idea that rookies must spend time in the A is fundamentally wrong headed. Each athlete develops on a different schedule, some of them by sun dial, others at the speed of light, most in fits and starts. No one size fits all policy will ever fit them all. That is why the decision must always come down to who is playing the best.
linnaeus - Eberle is extremely crafty/smart - like Zach Parise, who is faster, and Luc Robitallie, who is bigger.
ReplyDeleteGoing back to the LW discussion between Alex Giroux and MPS, I know if Giroux gets the NHL job and MPS gets the AHL job I have both guys working their tail off.
If the opposite happens, I am less certain that I have the same motivational forces at work.
Its not about talent. Its about managing the personnel situation for maximum effect. Something I see the Oilers grossly deficient at. A fatal flaw for a business that depends on the performances of its employees.
fwiw - I am prepared to be wrong-headed on the cautious side with prospects. A half season in the AHL will not hurt any of the prospects.
I can name some of players whose development suffered by being rushed into the NHL. Unfortunately, this is a one-sided test.With your vast prospect knowledge, can you name a player who was harmed by being sent down to the AHL?
What would that even look like?
can you name a player who was harmed by being sent down to the AHL?
ReplyDeleteRob Schremp.
hahaha, just kidding!
But none of those guys just won the CHL player of the year.
CHL is the best league on the planet for 16-20 year olds.
MPS has been playing against men for two years.
His Allstar selection at was at the same Men's World Championships. The same Men's Championship that saw Eberle take an important step, but get sheltered and kept off the ice in meaningful situations.
MPS was an allstar.
Deano,
ReplyDeleteIn something as creative as hockey the motivation needs to be intrinsic. It will come, as predicted from self determination theory, through them having opportunities for autonomy, competence and relatedness. As long as the farm team provides opportunities for each of these three aspects of human performance to be developed the risks to prospects that are sent down are nearly minimal.
The problem arises when the prospect a)has a competence greater than the minor league he is placed in, b)is denied autonomy, most commonly by winning training camp and being denied a spot on the team that he earned, and/or c)being put in a position where he can't relate.
Phoenix actually has three good examples of what happens when you mess up with a player and send down those who feel they have nothing to learn, are being a denied a chance they earned or can't relate with their new teammates...Viktor Tikhonov, Kyle Turris, and Mikkel Boedker. They were once the future of Phoenix now they are no longer even considered prospects.
Hockey and Baseball are the only two major sports that have a true minor league system.
ReplyDeleteIn Baseball there is none of this idea of having players dying on the vine. They all spend time in the minors. Look at Strasburg, he spent a year and a bit in the minors after his draft year. He was a big name pick who many think has been rushed to the majors.
I don't believe you can hurt a players development by making him earn his shot in the minor leagues.
linnaeus - according to ihbd
ReplyDeleteIn his first season in North America, Tikhonov played only 4 games in the AHL and 61 games in the NHL.
In Turris's first season out of college, he played only 8 games in the AHL and 63 games in the NHL.
Boedker went from the OHL to a full season in the NHL.
4, 8 and 0 games in the AHL does not make your case that they were demoralized by too much time in the AHL.
I actually think that, at least superficially, they could be better examples of development failing because they did not get enough time in the AHL and were moved on to the NHL too quickly, before they truly learned what they needed to at the AHL level. When the Coyotes tried to remedy the situation, they encountered difficulties because the players now believed (possibly falsely) they were too advanced for the AHL.
Is it possible that more time in the AHL would have taught them more skills than attempting to send them down later for remedial teaching?
I think that your examples actually support my 'wrong-headedness' that it is better to make sure the talent is allowed to ripen slowly as it is extremely difficult to correct these errors later when high-achieving, often-difficult personalities are involved.
Sorry that's according to ihdb
ReplyDelete"Look at Strasburg, he spent a year and a bit in the minors after his draft year"
ReplyDeleteHe certainly didn't. Also, comparing a starting pitcher to an NHLer is a little silly. Baseball also drafts players out of leagues where they may or may not be in high school playing next to no games, and using a different kind of bat. Just not a good comparison.
If they're ready (Hall, Eberle, Svensson, whoever) and better than their competitors, play them. The idea that a rookie who might struggle to be a net positive contributor being less valuable to the team than a plugger who has the same struggle with no reasonable chance of upside, is ludicrous. Also, at the NHL level you have maximum control over their development. For instance, the better approach with Mikhnov would have been to keep him in Edmonton and powerskate the hell out of him for 2 or 3 months. If they have any confidence at all in their ability as a coaching staff and organization, there's no hockey reason for a qualified rook to be sent to the AHL. For everyone who says something along the lines of "it's about entitlement", BS. If your team can't keep a few 18-20 year olds in check, you have bigger problems than those talented young men.
It should be case by case, and there wouldn't be a worst decision in the world than roll the dice before the kids play. There's no worst feeling in the world than knowing you just outplayed everyone but that still doesn't matter. If they earn it, let them play.
ReplyDeleteDeano, exactly how can anyone prove that AHL time harmed a player or derailed a career? There's simply no way to unequivocally pinpoint that as a cause since we don't have the ability to compare realities. Consequently, don't use the absense of "AHL harmed players" as proof of anything.
ReplyDeleteThat said, "rushing" a player to the NHL has the potential to harm development of the player. Same is true of using a rigid template to dictate that rookies must go to the A (why even try? It's already been determined).
It's also a mistake to look at all of the rookies as eqivalent. As has been pointed out numerous times on this thread, MPS has already been excelling vs. men. MPS is likely the most ready of the bunch (Giroux included).
The only answer is to decide at camp. Make the competition meaningful, and you'll get lots of effort. Giroux and MPS et al will push each other (before and after camp). That's all that's necessary. Full agreement with FPB on this one.
Deano said:
ReplyDelete"...when high-achieving, often-difficult personalities are involved."
Can't let any of those "high achieving personalities" stick around.
That just won't work.
I don"t hav any problems with both mps and eberle starting the year in the minors but given what the formers done against men and what the latters done in his first 20 minor pro games i don't expect those guys will still be in OKC come mid season.
ReplyDeleteso in that regard giroux is a good fit as a guy who gets an offensive chance while the kids force their way to the top. then again given the depth chart right now they probably start in the bigs anyway.
then again given the depth chart right now they probably start in the bigs anyway.
ReplyDeleteDennis,
I think that's the core of the debate.
If MPS and Eberle show they are in the top 4 of at their position at camp, do you start them in the NHL, or should they play some in the AHL and "earn" their way back to the big club?
I don't think there is much debate on where they are on the current depth chart.
If they really want 2 lines of skill and 2 line of "grit" then there are only 2 spots for Penner,Hall,MPS, but I think that's the only question about the depth chart.
Woodguy said: "If they really want 2 lines of skill and 2 line of "grit"..."
ReplyDeleteI think I'd rather have 3 balanced scoring lines (one of them being able to be a checking line) and one energy line.
I wouldn't mind having a scoring option like MPS, Omark or Eberle on the "third" line like a Versteeg.
I think the bigger question is who lines up as 3rd line center.
Pouliot?
ReplyDeleteOh, wait...
I don't think Hall, MPS, and Eberle all need to be one the first two lines. If our third line's going to be a traditional checking line, they probably don't belong there, but there's always the fourth line; that's where Hemsky started his career (along with some pressbox time), and if we're listing Oilers prospects of the last decade who have panned out, he probably has to head the list. Horcoff too, actually, though he's a bit of a special case.
ReplyDeleteDeano,
ReplyDeleteYour question was about prospects being hurt by time in the AHL. Tikhonov bolted rather than play in the AHL where he said he "didn't fit". That is the relatedness issue I talked about. Turris won the job in camp and still got sent down. Yes, it was his second year, for all three kids the demotion came in their second year. However, it seems to have taught him that there is no point in trying since you can't get ahead. That is down to the autonomy issue, you're own work ethic determines squat so why give a crap? Boedker lost all confidence. He was struggling with the speed of the NHL. That is the competence issue. The AHL is slower but it also doesn't help him prove to himself he is fast enough to be an effective NHLer.
We've done similar things, for example with JDD sending him to a place he couldn't fit in because everybody else belonged to another team. DD was forced to play goal in front of the six stooges which prevented him acquiring competence and reduced his autonomy. I could go on and on, which is why my comment about if you can provide an environment that promotes the three cornerstones of self determination the risk of sending a kid down is minimal. If you can't, and so far we don't even know whose going to coach in OKC, then the kids are better in sheltered minutes in the NHL.
I like the idea of working the kids in slowly on the 4th too.
ReplyDeleteNothing wrong with that approach, and as injury and play dicate they can start taking tougher minutes as they come.
I don't like the "2 scoring line", "2 grit line" approach. I puts people in a box.
I like "3 lines that can play against NHL competition", and an energy line that includes a kid or two.
Steve, I totally agree about kids on the 4th line. That's the perfect place to break them in (assuming you aren't burning years of service - that sort of changes the value equation). However, the Oilers appear to have made a statement about their fourth line this year and it will probably have more to do with knuckle dragging than playing quality hockey. What I'm trying to say is that I'm not sure they envision spots being open there either.
ReplyDeleteAs per Oilers email:
ReplyDeleteGeneral Manager Steve Tambellini announced today the Edmonton Oilers have named T.D. Forss Head Athletic Therapist.
 Forss has an extensive background in professional sports, including spending the past seven years as the Head Athletic Therapist for the Canadian Football League's Edmonton Eskimos.
Prior to joining the Eskimos, Forss served as Athletic Therapist with the Calgary Flames for two seasons and Athletic Therapist & Strength Coach for the Spokane Chiefs of the Western Hockey League from 1994-98 and 1999-2001.
Forss, who holds a Master of Arts and Bachelor of Physical Education from the University of Edmonton, spent some time with Hockey Canada as an Athletic Therapist at the 1992 Spengler Cup as well as the 1996 and 1999 World Junior Hockey Championships.
Tambellini also announced today, Jeff Lang has been promoted to the position of Head Equipment Manager.
Lang has been a part of the Oilers organization for the past seven years in the role of Equipment Manager.
Brad Harrison has joined the Oilers organization as the club's new Assistant Equipment Manager.
Harrison spent the past four seasons with the Toronto Marlies of the American Hockey League.
Forss, who holds a Master of Arts and Bachelor of Physical Education from the University of Edmonton...
ReplyDeleteWuh-oh. Looks like we're hiring people with degrees from non-existent universities now.
However, the Oilers appear to have made a statement about their fourth line this year and it will probably have more to do with knuckle dragging than playing quality hockey.
ReplyDeleteI've been assuming that MacIntyre's the 14F (that is, that barring significant injuries he'd dress for only a minority of games); do you think otherwise?
The only other forwards we have who could reasonably be described as knuckle draggers are JFJ and Stortini (and JFJ's calling card in the AHL was major offense, so the designation's probably not really fair in his case). The former will be hurt all the time, and Stortini's not incompatible with a kid - MPS-Fraser-Stortini, for example, looks like a perfectly acceptable energy line to me.
I'm counting Strudwick as a defenseman, because that's what he's been for the Oilers so far, and because I assume injuries in the defensive corps will force him into action there anyway; if he becomes a forwardm that obviously changes the equation.
Haven't seen yesterday Dan Barnes piece linked here yet (apologies if I've overlooked it). Highlights:
ReplyDelete*Comrie "probably not coming back"
*There is "zero chance" of Souray being at camp, and going to Oklahoma is "unfathomable".
*Cogliano still prime trade bait.
"Forss, who holds a Master of Arts and Bachelor of Physical Education from the University of Edmonton..."
ReplyDeleteWuh-oh. Looks like we're hiring people with degrees from non-existent universities now.
Good day, Downright Fierce.
The article has been corrected to U of A. The part that caught my breath was that he's the Oilers MEDICAL TRAINER with these academic credentials:
Master of Arts and Bachelor of Physical Education
WTF?!
I'm not one to freak out easily, (ask Lain), but this is some SCARY $#!+!
L8r
Louise
What? No mention of Hall's contract?
ReplyDeleteThe M.A. is most likely a specialization in athletic therapy that predates the M.Kin program. The BPE makes complete sense as an undergrad for an athletic therapist/trainer role. He is not the team Doctor, that is a different role.
ReplyDeleteHi Louise!
ReplyDeleteI think you can put the freak out on hold (for now). The headline calls Forss a "medical trainer," but the article puts his real position in caps: Head Athletic Therapist. Psyche's right that he's not the Team Doctor, but he's also not the Head Medical Trainer (Ken Lowe's position that remains unfilled). And I believe Psyche's also right about the MA/MKin issue-- just texting a friend in the MKin program at U of A now to confirm.
brule files for arbitration.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=326656
Another reason to apprentica in the A:
ReplyDeleteSystems are a big part of today's NHL.
Why not follow the Buffalo innovation of putting a kid in the A until he has demonstrated a knowledge of the big club's system and how to play it based on ever-changing game variables.
That's something that can only come with coaching and experience.
Mastery isn't required, but the reduction of HUA mistakes prior to reaching the NHL would seem beneficial.
And Linnaeus, I would say that kids have the least objective ability to determine their own worthiness to play in the NHL, out of all the organizational members evaluating them. A lot of the problems created in Phoenix could have been resolved with better communication in a dysfunctional, failing business.
Not that it means anything, but Hall came across well at his signing press conferences. Granted, it's all bromides and bolier plate kind of stuff "give it 110%" but he seemed calm, composed, hit the right tones etc.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to like the kid.
Now, let's hope he really does have Pavel Bure speed and not Valeri Bure's game.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYeah, thanks guys.
ReplyDeleteYou'd think the team would want to be more forthcoming with the specifics of his MA.
I've known more than a few truly stupid people who have BPE, or even BE, degrees. Without more info I'll remain skeptical.
;-D
Louise:
ReplyDeleteTurns out my friend has her BScKin and is in the MA program that Forss graduated from (albeit several years earlier).
The MA label seems to be just that, a label with many subheadings. From the MA (Phys and Rec) description:
Areas of Research:
Active Healthy Children
Adapted Physical Education
Analysis of Human Movement
Athlete Health
Behavioural Medicine and Sport Psychology
Coaching Sciences
Exercise Physiology and Biochemistry
Recreation and Leisure Studies, and Sport and Leisure Organizations
Sociological and Cultural Studies of Sport and Leisure
Also, from the U of A BPE program description:
Active living, health promotion, fitness testing, exercise physiology, sport performance – welcome to the wide world of the physical educator!
Study biomechanics, physiology, anatomy, sociology – learn the art of coaching, the science of the human body; help others surmount barriers to good health through every aspect of movement.
So there seems to be enough in these descriptions to lead me to believe Forss is well-qualified. That and his extensive experience in the field should make him a fine member of the Training Staff.
Here's hoping they hire someone as Head Trainer with some NHL experience and (more importantly) a good track record to make the most of this new staff.
spoiler,
ReplyDeleteI actually agree with you completely.
1. Many of the problems in Phoenix could have been avoided with better communication. The problem is that the new look Oilers still haven't addressed the need for better communication throughout their system. So we might well be given to the same sort of mistakes. ST has promised us many more announcements and a department of player development and if he follows through that will be a good first step.
2. I agree that teams that have a defined system of play can get great value out of having their farm team play the same system. What we need to settle on is what system (it is part of identity) we want to play. Then we need the coach and GM in OKC to implement the same system. If that is taken care of I would be a lot more comfortable with the idea of players learning the trade in the A. At least there would be some relatedness opportunities. That is to say that what they did in OKC would be part of the larger organization's operation and that would be a very good thing.
However, there hasn't even been talk about taking this approach. Though it is to some extent part of the Chicago approach.
So, given what Barnes said, comrie's re-signing, Souray might be at camp and Cogliano isn't being traded. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteSome very unsettling news reports say Bob Probert was rushed to hospital after collapsing on a boat.
ReplyDeleteSome on Twitter, including Jeff Marek, claim he has passed away.
If you're still there, big guy, keep fighting. If not, sleep soundly and say hello to the greats up in Hockey Heaven.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=326672
LT,
ReplyDeleteLooks to be a better line up in the AHL, but still way too young. Is there any way to loan some guys back to Europe? How do you deal with all these young guys who need minutes and how do you win without veterans?
F: Giroux, Omark, Reddox, Vande Velde, O'marra, Cornet, Kytnar, Hartikainnen, Rajala, Marquardt, and maybe two of the big three rookies, or one of our bottom of the roster tough guys.
D: Petiot, Chorney, Plante, Petry, Motin,
G: Deslauriers, Pitton
By my count that's not enough veterans, though Omark should count as one and should destroy the AHL. I think Jacques would be fantastic all year in the AHL and would solve a lot of problems.
Maybe Hartikainen goes back to Europe? Maybe Rajala can go too? Tough calls.
Kris: AHL veterans are not always necessary. Depends on the quality of your young guys. Look at Hamilton. They did splendid.
ReplyDeleteDavid Desharnais 22
Brock Trotter 21
P.K. Subban 20
Ben Maxwell 21
Ryan Russell 22
Yannick Weber 20
Mathieu Carle 21
Max Pacioretty 20
Ryan White 21
The core was all youngsters exept for Glumac (29) who had a 20-20 season. 32 Games of Mathieu Darche (32) and Alex Henry as 4-5th D.
And they went to Conf Finals.
Rajala has to go back to Finland to fulfill his military commitment, and I doubt Marquardt or Kytnar start anywhere but Stockton. Cornet might follow, but he's always been a hot starter and is one of those players who finds chemistry with others fairly easily.
ReplyDeleteAssuming they throw enough at Locke to get him to come, the forward depth-chart should be as follows:
Giroux - Locke - Omark
Jacques - Vande Velde - Reddox
Hartikainen - O'Marra
That's a fine start. I suspect, like last year, they'll start bringing in lower tier AHL free agents similar to the Matt Nickerson signing to fill it out.
Plus, Colin McDonald has an AHL offer from the Oilers on the table. Sounds like he'll sign if he can't get a two way contract.
Thanks fpb. I didn't see how young those guys were. Nice post.
ReplyDeleteJust to be clear, I think MPS and Eberle will or would kill AHL comp. just like AHL veterans, or like Subban did.
I'm more worried about the next tier of prospects like Hartikainnenenenen, or the tier below that like Cornet.
In the past, we thought middling and decent propsects like O'marra and Chorney would destroy the AHL, and they didn't. Even worse, the strategy of relying on them to play tough AHL minutes kept Springfield in the basement.
So I still think we'd be better off with at least a couple more vets, which will force some of the prospects off the OKC roster. And I'm wondering if LT, or anyone, has thoughts on how that will happen. Maybe prospect camp will help sort some of that out.
Thanks Mark-Ryan. Another nice post.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the D, though?
I don't like the idea of Chorney, Petry, Plante, Motin eating up that many minutes. Petiot is great, but don't they need another solid veteran for the top 4?
Kris: I agree tough that defense is more touchy, and they should have at least 2 veteran defenders.
ReplyDeleteThat is if we don't pick up a groundbreaking D prospect somehow.
I think Goaltending and the procurement department outside of the drafted kids has a LOT to do.
None of Desjardins, Trotter or Desharnais were drafted. Time to Ink some college kids, or kids who rocked the CHL in theyr last year.
R.I.P. Probie. 45 is far too young. Thanks for all the great fights.
ReplyDelete