Look out, Mama, there's a white boat comin' up the river
With a big red beacon, and a flag, and a man on the rail
I think you'd better call John,
'Cause it don't look like they're here to deliver
the mail
And it's less than a mile away I hope they didn't come to stay
It's got numbers on the side and a gun
And it's makin' big waves.
-Neil Young
Just got back from 9 days in America with my family. It was a great time, the kids are growing up and it is a lot of fun seeing them turn into the people they'll be for the next 70 years or so (God willing). My son has found his dream (the Vancouver Film School, and he's paying for half of it; either that or my wife better find a second husband with deeper pockets :-)) and my daughter is completety devoted to classic rock.
I never pushed my kids into a sport or a musical taste, thought they should find their own way. Of course, it didn't hurt that Neil Young was on in the background most days but still she was free to choose the Grateful Dead if she liked them (thankfully, she does not).
Anyway, the soundtrack of our trip this summer was Neil Young, Traffic, Jimi Hendrix, the Doors, Pink Floyd, Spirit, Jethro Tull, the Allmans, Lynyrd Skynyrd and a few others thrown in (Fleetwood Mac and Bonnie Raitt for Mom). I'd damn near forgotten how good Traffic was, and Jethro Tull still sounds fresh 100 years later. Neil Young? He's written more great songs than anyone I can name. "Helpless" is the best track on CSNY's Deja Vu and you never hear a thing about it.
Its good to know all that good music is getting passed along, and especially good to know it wasn't force fed. It is especially good to be reminded of how wonderful that music is by your own kids. Its pretty cool.
--
Every July I make 10 predictions about the Oilers in the following season. The list for the past two seasons is here and this year's top 10 is below.
- The Oilers will find a way to get all three phenom's onto the opening night roster.
- Linus Omark will start the season in Oklahoma City, but rip it up in the minors and force a decision through his fine play by the end of December.
- The Oilers will start the season with 3 goalies.
- Jason Strudwick will retire at the end of training camp, taking on a coaching role.
- Chris Vande Velde will have a very strong training camp, and be one of the last players sent to the minor leagues.
- The Oilers will invite at least two former roster players to training camp.
- The Oilers will sign Mike Comrie, late summer.
- JF Jacques will start the season on IR.
- We will be shocked by Gilbert Brule's contract.
- Tom Renney will drive many Oiler fans crazy with his systems and emphasis on disciplined play. MacT 2.0 is going to win some hockey games with an undermanned group because of it though, and he may turn some of these kids into actual NHL players (just like MacT did with Ales Hemsky).
I think the 10-11 season is going to be a lot of fun. We're going to be watching these kids for a long damn time, enduring the growing pains, the missteps, the trail of lost prospects due to injury. But there's a lot of promise on this roster, and watching them grow up will be payment enough for some of us who've seen it before. I hope I'm around to see them hug Stanley.
Don't be dissing the Dead, now....
ReplyDeleteInteresting Top 10 LT. I agree with most of it.
ReplyDeleteJust curious about #9. What part will we be shocked about? Term? How much? How little?
Kyle: Basically, I think the Oilers are not good at negotiating contracts outside the entry level deals.
ReplyDeleteno analysis of last year's predictions?
ReplyDeleteI had a chance to talk with some hockey people (scouts and college coaches) over the weekend and they were saying VDV is training like a mad man this summer. He obviously wants to make his mark.
ReplyDeleteI still like him as a winger though, albeit a winger who can take and win a draw.
I think for a lot of reasons it will be a very interesting season with great potential for some sensationalism. We're going to see a lot of rookie talent on the Oilers and around the league generally this year. Arguably, the new talent we see on the Oilers will be the best since Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteI don't think see Strudwick retire or Comrie come back, but I do agree that Renney will be a source of contention amongs fans, much like MacT.
For my part I can predict that I will personally enjoy this team much more than last year's.
SumOil: I don't think any of them were right! :-)
ReplyDeleteSumOil: I don't think any of them were right! :-)
ReplyDeleteUm, Ryan Stone?
Took a Youtube/Allmusic tour of Leon Russell this weekend and by way of Delaney and Bonnie, bumped into Dave Mason of Traffic (and about a quarter of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame).
ReplyDeleteI would like to see the Oil walk from Brule's award, and offer the same money to Dominic Moore. I'd structure Moore's deal to be the same cap hit, but a lower salary with $250,000 bonuses for each of: being a plus player, being above 50% on FO and being in the top-3 F in PK icetime/game.
Rob - if you are a Deadhead, have you checked out Robert Randolph and the Family band? They sound fresh to me in this highly-derivative world (its his lap steel).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4vCPZTrNjs
OT:
ReplyDeleteKovy's agent tweeted that THE DECISION will come down today.
Not a moment too soon.
Should clear a roadblock and see some FA forwards signed, and hopefully Souray traded.
Staples/Adler have Trukhno headed to Russia.
ReplyDeleteIs Renney really MacT 2.0?
ReplyDeleteThe reason that this club talks about development 24/7 is partially because of MacTavish.
Marc Pouliot was a 1st round pick that had a nice rookie season in the AHL. He never got a sniff in the top 6 and MacTavish never used him at 3C even though that's where Pouliot was most comfortable and why management never went out and acquired a 3c in the first place.
MacT was the type of coach that put skill on the 4th line and told them if they look dynamic playing 7 minutes a night he would move you up in the lineup. They guy had no idea how to put players in the position to succeed - something that Steve Smith said recently that was the biggest problem with the Oilers the past decade from his vantage point.
I could be wrong but didn't Renney also have a solid PP? Something that MacT could never figure out.
Listening to Renney talk he seems to have grasped the residual aspect of coaching. MacT on the other hand couldn't see past the 1st period.
What exactly reminds you of MacT besides the gray hair and vocabulary?
"I would like to see the Oil walk from Brule's award, and offer the same money to Dominic Moore."
ReplyDeleteThat makes as much sense as trading Sam Gagner for Tim Conolloy.
Traktor: Ales Hemsky, Mike Comrie, Shawn Horcoff, Jarret Stoll, Raffi Torres, Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano say hi.
ReplyDeleteSumOil: I don't think any of them were right! :-)
ReplyDeleteUm, Ryan Stone?
Don't forget the Schremp to Islanders prediction (although that was nearly as difficult as predicting the sun rising in the morning ;))
I think the only sure prediction is the one about Omark. He seems to not have a lot of quit in him, so he should be forcing some decisions very soon after TC. And I think he makes Comrie redundant too.
BTW, I agree with you that it is very cool to watch your kids take on the best parts of your history and make it their future. I am at the other end of the parenting spectrum (young, young and younger) but I hear my words coming out their mouths all the time, and am watching them develop some of those interests even now.
That music thing can be a bit funny.
ReplyDeleteI used to play a lot of Celtic music in my car in hopes that my kids would embrace all things Scottish.
My son recently told me that the music he liked best was the Drifters tape.
Who knew?
He has an acoustic band which is Celtic, so we are both happy
When does training camp start? I can't find the date anywhere. Sorry for the stupid question.
ReplyDeleteDeano,
ReplyDeleteI didn't think you could build bonuses into a contract unless it was an entry-level contract ala Hall. Not sure where I read that though...
trak - Paying Brule because Penner made him better is what makes no sense. The next player who gets that icetime will do it too, and we have a choice of 'next players' this season.
ReplyDeleteMacT was the type of coach that put skill on the 4th line and told them if they look dynamic playing 7 minutes a night he would move you up in the lineup. They guy had no idea how to put players in the position to succeed
ReplyDeleteThe 4th line is where they're in a good position to succeed. Where they're in a bad position to succeed is when they're put on one of the top two lines and told that they'll be responsible for a good chunk of the team's offense.
LT:
ReplyDeleteSomehow I doubt that Renney would leave Mikhnov in the PB for months without speaking with him.
Probably would have turn him into a player and saved the picks we spent on Penner.
Renney is the type of coach that looks for roles for players to fill. MacT on the other hand looks for players to fill roles.
One thing we can agree on though Renney is looks to be the right man for the job.
Looks like Kovalchuk is staying in New Jersey as per TSN and Devils twitter.
ReplyDeleteCue the gagner to LA rumuors.
It's funny...I think people will be shocked by how well Brule plays. The man can score goals and doesn't rely on a gimmick to do it.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure #7 is bang-on.
I'd love it if Omark forced a decision. It's about time we had a big surprise.
Can't wait to watch this group of forwards. We will not be relying on one or two players for goals for a long time.
I hated the way MacTavish coached in the regular season, but he was right in breaking in the young on the 4th line (which is why it made no sense when he didn't give RS the same shot there as he was better than some of the others).
ReplyDeleteDon't blame MacTavish for Mik either. I'd highly wager that was management/hockey ops fault. He should've been on the NHL roster, learning English and powerskating his butt off. Coach can't really dictate that.
Hopefully player movement starts in earnest now. There are a lot of quality vets out there that could be worth grabbing.
anon - you're right - veterans have to have 400 games to get bonuses on a 1-year deal.
ReplyDeleteMoore only has 374 games.
LT,
ReplyDeleteThe best version of Powderfinger is off Neil's "Live Rust" album from years back.
I'm hoping Mark is a surprise as well, and I'm hoping your prediction about Strudwick is right to. Can't count how many times I cursed his name last season.
Crap, I missed the O *insert joke here*
ReplyDeleteI meant to say Omark
I don't have any scat references to add her and I'm not gonna be a dick to other posters so maybe that makes my comments less relevant but a day after Trak calls my opinion on the 94 deal stupid he breaks out an opinion that is nothing less than silly.
ReplyDeleteI was as ready to let MacT go as the next guy -- I think he burned out just as say Alou did with Mtl -- but you're totally out to lunch if you didn't think that guy played a lot of good hands while he was coach. He had a great idea how to match and there aren't a whole lot of guys who were glossed and passed over as Oilers under his watch only to go on to be guys that help you to win hockey games.
Traktor said...
ReplyDeleteMacT was the type of coach that put skill on the 4th line and told them if they look dynamic playing 7 minutes a night he would move you up in the lineup.
You mean like Gagner starting last season on the 4th?
Dan Cleary giving a shout out to Craig MacTavish for teaching him how to play away from the puck being a huge reason he made the Detroit team and why he's successful now must have been him just bullshitting as well =).
ReplyDeletePowderfinger - that's just terrific stuff. I've posted a couple of times about Neil Young. Saw him when I was 18 at Maple Leaf Gardens and again when I was around 24 or 25 at Exhibition Stadium with Pearl Jam and Soundgarden. And yeah that was all that, even with the crappy venue.
ReplyDeleteHe's the greatest.
Presently my oldest is into Van Morrison and the boy is a Beatles man so I'm working on them. ;) I think its working, the other day soem Zeppelin came on the radio and they asked me to turn it up. Good sign.
"You mean like Gagner starting last season on the 4th?"
ReplyDeleteI think Gags dropped the mitts that game and was quickly moved up the lineup.
I remember when Penner dropped the mitts sticking up Hemsky (think it was against the Wild) and MacT benched him the rest of the game.
Remember when MacT called Garon the #1 going forward and then played Roli 3 out of the next 4?
Rennet doesn't do that type of shit.
"Dan Cleary giving a shout out to Craig MacTavish for teaching him how to play away from the puck being a huge reason he made the Detroit team and why he's successful now must have been him just bullshitting as well =)."
ReplyDeleteI remember Mike Danton giving David Frost a couple shout outs too.
Just saying.
Dennis:
ReplyDeleteHe played some good hands but folded a lot of winners.
He likes to keep the pots as small as possible and usually blinds-out before he busts out.
Those types usually cash but very rarely make the final table.
^^ what exactly are you just saying?
ReplyDeleteMacT didn't play Schremp and that's why Schremp sucked.
ReplyDeleteMacT didn't play Mikhnov, who clearly would've been a 25-30 goal scorer, playing tough minutes like Penner.
In general, a player's development is affected in a very substantial, very positive way if a coach plays him a lot against tough NHL minutes.
It all makes for a fascinating story, but none of it has the slightest whiff of evidence behind it.
---
Here's what I think. In general, we see the ordinary variation in players' boxcar stats due to randomness, small injuries, changes in qual comp. etc., and we try to find reasons to explain it. Sometimes we say, oh the player isn't getting the same results, so it must be a problem with the coach or a bad attitude Everytime we do that we're just guessing. And if we pretend that this guessing is knowing, then we're BS'ing.
Oh, and I respect Traktor a lot.
---
I kind of like Brule's development. His underlying numbers aren't terrible. He's still young-ish, and his pedigree is fantastic. He might get an overpay and be POS v.2.0, but he might be something really good, too. I wouldn't move him unless the return was good.
Late to the table here, but my favorite version of Powderfinger is by The Beat Farmers.
ReplyDeleteLove these predictions posts LT... but Strudwick retiring after camp to in turn coach this team in some capacity? Really?
"It all makes for a fascinating story, but none of it has the slightest whiff of evidence behind it."
ReplyDeleteBeing that there would be no possible way to show evidence; what do you expect?
Nash signs in Carolina:
ReplyDeleteNash in Carolina
NB Oiler fan, re:Strudwick.
ReplyDeleteThink OKC for as an assistant or pre-scouting or person in the booth watching the game.
I think this has a good chance of happening.
@Traktor, "I remember Mike Danton giving David Frost a couple shout outs too.
ReplyDeleteJust saying."
So... what? Are you implying that ANY player that gives credit to their coach is an impressible, deluded young man secretly wanting to set up the murder of that same coach?
Is there anything relevant to your comments whatsoever - or is your blind hatred of MacT so overwhelming?
Anaheim's top 8 list
ReplyDeleteDucks Draft List
Sorry, it's a facebook link, couldn't find it on the Ducks page in my quick look. If the link doesn't work, here's their list:
1) Hall
2) Seguin
3) Fowler
4) Gudbranson
5) Gormley
6) Johansen
7) Connolly
8) Niederreiter
The video also has a good description of why they rated Fowler so high.
LT;
ReplyDeleteIf you are in Vancouver during hockey season and want to catch a game somewhere I would be happy to buy you a beer or three. It is the least I can do for all the enjoyment I get out of this blog.
Being that there would be no possible way to show evidence; what do you expect?
ReplyDeleteSorry LMHF,
I thought it was clear I was saying that people shouldn't pretend that asserions are justified when they're completely without evidence.
It's okay to say, "Hey, I wonder if Mikhnov would've been better if he'd been played more." But t's BS to say "Mikhnov would've been good if MacT would've played him more." unless there's evidence. I don't see evidence, so it seems like BS.
I mean, we often say the opposite too: Brule would've been better if he had have played more AHL minutes.
I suspect that game time has a lot less impact on development than practice. I'd be interested in being proven wrong, but anecdotes and a bunch of guesses about the psychology of players won't do it.
By "practice" I mean a lot of things: fitness, skating, video with coaches, working on positioning without the puck, etc., etc. etc.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteKris - Okay, fair enough. People often don't get into the detail they should when describing how a player's development should have been different.
ReplyDeleteI do quite firmly believe that Mik would have been a player if developed in a different way which required NHL time based on the evaluation of his talent and how he played the game, but that train has sailed...
Master Lok:
ReplyDeleteI'm just saying it takes more than a couple quotes to prove someones innocence.
Alright, Traktor, bringin' the stat-rape jokes. Keep it classy, dude.
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of the reason why kids today eventually embrace classic rock is the fact that a lot of pop and rock today is very manufactured and samey-sounding; classic rock has such a richness and variety of sounds and styles, you can spend years hip-deep in it and not exhaust the discoveries. I'm told hip-hop is where the good "singer"-songwriters are these days, but I wouldn't really know; I'm still exploring the back catalogue of 1965-1990. Lots of stuff there I don't know nearly enough about. (Heck, just the other day, I remembered for the first time in years how much good stuff is on Neruda.)
Prediction:
ReplyDeleteComrie will get a contract from the Oilers in September if he can't get one from Chicago, or somebody else.
(Not a hockey decision, but an arena district financing decision.) True, they might only give him a camp invitation until they see how Omark looks close up.
I thought that was an old picture of Bill Guerin
ReplyDeleteKris: I think that Mikhnov's Desjardins numbers proove that he could play.
ReplyDeleteSeeing guys like Petersen and Winchester get full time jobs while the big man got down isn't exactly what you would want to see.
Not saying MacT ruined him, but that certainly didn't help. It's not like that team was filled with obviously better players. Same things goes for Schremp.
It would be okay in all and all, I'm not saying these kids are world beaters, just that the guys they got replaced with didn't have enough punch (Or potential) to ditch them. (Sanderson, JFJ, Winchester... etc)
LT, you could make a strong argument that Hemsky developed in spite of MacT, not because of him. He spent the lockout year back in the Czech league, and came back a better player because of it.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see we have something in common LT, that list of music is sweet as it gets (Tough i'm more of a Red Hot Chili Peppers and Zeppelin guy). Also fun to see your kid shares my passion for Cinema. How old is he? I'm entering Uni in Cinema/Communications this year. (Well Cegep)
ReplyDelete