Word this morning that the Carolina Hurricanes have signed Riley Nash to an entry level contract. Nash and the Oilers were rarely on the same page and the club dealt him for a second round pick at last month's entry draft.
I have suggested that Riley Nash has developed as a prospect, but this has not been the opinion of the Edmonton Oilers management. Several times during the period 2007-10 the club's management made remarks with regard to his lack of progress, the poor competition faced by Cornell and the short season.
The Hurricanes website lists Nash at 6.01, 191. His career numbers at Cornell:
- Age 18: 36gp, 12-20-32 (.889)
- Age 19: 36gp, 13-22-35 (.972)
- Age 20: 30gp, 12-23-35 (1.17)
- Freshman 36gp, 12-20-32 on a team that scored 102 goals (31.4%)
- Sophomore 36gp, 12-22-34 on a team that scored 92 goals (36.9%)
- Junior 30gp, 12-23-35 on a team that scored 95 goals (36.8%)
It'll be interesting to see if Riley Nash is able to play hockey at the pro level. That long season, the difficult competition and all of the other factors mentioned by the Oilers will offer Nash a difficult transition. It'll be fun to see if he can make it through training camp.
"That long season, the difficult competition and all of the other factors mentioned by the Oilers will offer Nash a difficult transition. It'll be fun to see if he can make it through training camp."
ReplyDelete~ So how long is that training camp? ~
I like that the Canes dont bother with "terms not disclosed", and come right out with the financial terms of the deal.
ReplyDeleteGiven the terms, I think there's a decent chance that there's an understanding Nash will be on the club, because those terms are extremely low for a 21 OV pick. In fact, I don't know if I've ever seen a first round pick sign at terms that low.
speeds: I think he'd make it anyway, even without a guarantee. Hurricanes don't have tremendous depth up front.
ReplyDeletePlease accept my apologies for my irrational and ill-mannered response:
ReplyDeleteWhattadouchebag.
17 years, $150 million for Kovalchuk?
ReplyDeleteWow.
Very interested to see how the deal is structured. 17 year deal for a 27 year old guy.
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming it's a huge salary upfront with very low numbers at the end. The idea, I suppose, is that once the actual dollars he's earning get low enough, he can retire from the NHL and play some seasons in the KHL. The cap hit disappears. He makes huge dollars in the NHL, then retires when it's no longer worth his while.
I wonder how the league will react. It is Lou, so they'll do shit all, but it's interesting.
---
Nash deal is weird. Kid must hate Edmonton because they surely would've given him more money and he would've had the best possible chance at cracking the lineup.
That's a huge signing bonus and a low base salary. It seems that he thought that there was a good chance he'd end up in the AHL and so wanted to be compensated up-front in case of that "hardship." Interesting move from a financial perspective, but I think it fleshes out his mentality towards hockey a bit more, and it isn't exactly endearing.
ReplyDelete17 years, $150 million for Kovalchuk?
ReplyDeleteWow.
I can't believe the Oilers lost out on another Free Agent signing. Word is that the Oilers offered $1 billion over 2 years but that the Oilers offer was never seriously considered (even though Katz, Lowe and Tambi took Kovalchuk breakfast in bed
(news report from the alternate universe where Tambelowkazi still run the Oilers)
Sounds like Gagne to Tampa.
ReplyDeleteSouray to Jersey for Arnott then?
ReplyDeletecommon: they'd do souray for Rolston, but not Arnott. I don't want Rolston for his cap hit.
ReplyDeleteThat contract cannot be fucking legal. But then again, it's Lou.
ReplyDeleteFuck.
Apparently Kovalchuk's deal is actually 17 years and 102 million. Not bad at all.
ReplyDeleteGagne for a 4th round pick and a bottom pairing defenceman? Wow. Highway robbery by the Bolts right there. Gagne will improve that team in all kinds of ways when he's healthy. Very good influence for Stamkos as well, having one of the best two-way forwards post-lockout on the team.
The Philadelphia Flyers have traded forward Simon Gagne to the Tampa Bay Lightning for defenceman Matt Walker and a fourth-round draft pick in 2011.TSN
ReplyDeleteCheap cheap cheap.
Jersey over cap now. They need to shed salary without taking anything back.
ReplyDeletePossibles:
Elias (LW): 3 yrs at $6 mill
Zubrus (C) : 3 yrs at $3.4 mill
Rolston (RW): 2 yrs at $5.062 mill
Langenbrunner (he had a falling out last year with management) (RW): 1 yr $2.8 mill
Salvador (D): 2 yrs at $2.9 mill
Is there anyone we would want? Would anyone want Zubrus as one of our top 3 centres and he walks in 3 yrs once we have to pay the kids? I'd sooner sign Dominic Moore for 2 yrs at $2 mill, but Zubrus has more offense and allows us to move Horcoff to tough minute checking line.
Elias, Rolston, and Langenbrunner both have NTC. None of them are waiving it to come here.
ReplyDeleteIf it means shedding Souray's attitude*, I could live with Zubrus. The timing works and his cap hit isn't terrible for what he brings to the table (vet presence, offense when healthy). Like DBO said, it allows Renney to adjust Horcoff's role in the lineup.
*My only reference point is his post-season comments. If the waiver wire has humbled him, I'd be happy to have him back. Though I think consensus is that's pretty unlikely...
@DBO- I would attempt to see if I could pull off a Alexander Mogilny like trade with the Devils. Say
ReplyDeleteRolston, the Devils' 2011 first round pick, the Devils' 2012 second round prick, and the Devils' 2014 third round pick
for
Random Oilers' Prospect with only one year left on a two-way contract
- The Oilers would basically be buying one 1st rounder, one 2nd rounder, and one 3rd rounder for a whooping 10.12 million dollars. The Oilers could decided if they want to buy him out next season or not.
My other fantasy suggestion is targeting Elias:
Would the Oilers trading Penner and parts be good enough for Elias and parts?
I am sure the Oilers' parts would have to be slightly better then the Devils' parts, or have more cap hit coming back to the Oilers for the 2010-11 season. Just trading Penner for Elias would save the Devils $1.75 million dollars in cap space over the next two years, and then $6 million in the third year. The Devils would be getting a real top 6 LW back for Elias, so it is more reasonable that this might actually happen.
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ReplyDeleteConsidering what the pipeline guys mentioned about the Nash family being super tight with Stu McGregor; somebody had to have done something awful to create that much bad blood between the Oilers and the Nash camp. In this light it's clear why they had to trade him, I'm just upset about how badly they mismanaged him and bungled things to get to this point.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Gagne 'trade' for essentially a 4th round pick; what astounds me is that Stevie Y exacerbated the Flyer's cap issues by trading them Mezaros, then capitalized by stealing Gagne. Either Steve has compromising pictures of Paul Holmgren, or else Holmgren somehow thought that Mezaros was more valuable than Gagne. Either thought can't be comforting to Philly fans.
I know that this is "so last post," but Jethro Tull is an excellent choice, LT. I sometimes think that I'm the only person in this country that appreciates this band. Thanks for keeping the faith!
ReplyDeleteIf "not guaranteeing an NHL roster spot for an unproven prospect on a rebuilding team" is bungling mismanagement, I assume a good GM must cup the balls when he's between his prospects' knees?
ReplyDeleteGreat quote that someone just emailed me, not sure of the source:
ReplyDelete"So essentially this amounts to Mesarios, Walker, and a 4th Round Pick for Gagne and a 2nd Round Pick. Yzerman is taking the league by storm. It's a cap deal for Philly...but still...Yzerman cooked them. Montreal and Boston wish they could make trades like this....but they don't. Gauthier and Chiarelli are clowns..."
Could it be that Yzerman is actually a GM savant? But then again he was an awesome player as well. Yzerman the new Superman?
I hope someone has already blocked all incoming and outgoing calls, emails, physical mail etc. between the Lightning and Tambellini, Lowe, and Katz.
LT,
ReplyDeleteI am super lazy when it comes to looking up hockey info. So, perhaps this idea would A) allow me to remain lazy, and, B) give you a neat topic throughout the year...here it is:
Put together a quarterly report on players we lost this year. One report after training camp concludes and rosters are set, one just after Christmas, one after the All-Star Game and one at the end of the year. My hope would be all the players let go are busts, but it would be nice to have your take on how their years are going?
Thoughts?
What, watching them score on us every time any of them play against us isn't enough for you?
ReplyDeleteHas anyone seen the salary structure for Kovalchuk's deal?
ReplyDeleteI'm just wondering for how many of those last years he'll be making the league minimum.
Also, will the CBA really allow him to be making the 2010 league minimum in 15 years when the 2025 minimum will probably be 5x higher than it is today?
LT, are there any quotes/interviews from the Nash camp shedding light on what the hell happened with the Oilers over the last 2 or so years?
ReplyDeleteMichael Russo from the Star Trib:
ReplyDeletesource on Kovalchuk contract: Goes 6, 6, 5 years of 11.5, 10.5, 8.5, 6.5, 3.5, then 750, 550, 550, 550, 550, 550. AAV: 6 mill
Kovy won't be playing in 15, so the league-min. issue is moot.
Hey that's Thompson Arena in the pic. Good place to watch a game - especially if it's against Princeton or UNH.
ReplyDeleteApologies for being completely off topic again, LT:
ReplyDeleteBack on the Shero/CCCP/Corsi thing again. :)
I tried a bunch of googling for "shos directed at net" + IIHF etc. I came across a Summit 72 site by a guy called Arthur Chidlovski. Apparently an American immigrant who lived in Russia during the Summit Series. Do you know him from your hockey history travels?
Go to this page on his site:
http://www.chidlovski.net/1972/h_topresults.asp?team=Canada&positiond=Forward&action=search&OrderCrtr=shag&SubmitForm=+SUBMIT+
He's got shots AT goal, as opposed to shots ON goal, listed there. That's twenty years ahead of he first solid North American reference (Roger Neilson) to looking at things through that lens. So it is damn unlikely that the Canadians were recording it.
It's just a passing reference, really. And it doesn' separate the EV from special teams. And just by the player. Still, the raw data from these games is out their somewhere. That would be gold.
This cat seems to know that Esposito took a whopping 37 shots at the Soviet net that were either blocked or missed. And he knows that Maltsev fired 25 at the Canadian net that were either blocked or saved.
How? And who on he Soviet squad was so far ahead of he curve?
If you don't know this chap, and nobody else here does, I'll go about it on my own, LT. Just let me know.
1) Nash clearly must have a handshake side deal with Rutherford about an NHL spot, or a minimum number of games in the NHL.
ReplyDelete2) Gagne had a no-trade-clause, which meant Holmgren's hands were tied in the salary dump.
3) No to Elias. He has never been the same since the hepatitis, is too old, and has too many years for too much money left on his contract. It would eliminate the ability to be opportunistic in poaching from cap-challenged teams. He would be an isolated old guy on a rebuilding team. It would be a disaster.
4) If Rolston could still play, but he can't, so no to Rolston. He again would make it impossbile to be opportunistic on a player who can actually still play.
5) Langenbruner, with only 1 year left, to give Renney a shutdown line option with Horcoff and Langenbruner, OR with enough skill to babysit a couple of the young studs...YES to that.
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ReplyDeleteOops. For about that should be Maltsev's shots that were either blocked or MISSED. Not saved.
ReplyDelete@Downright Fierce
ReplyDeleteWhether he's going to be playing or not when his salary is scheduled to drop to 550K, shouldn't the union see the whole deal as illegal as soon as the league minimum tops that?
All I could quickly find that may apply somewhat is this Q&A from when the current CBA was signed:
What happens with players who have contracts for 2005-06 for less than the minimum salary?
The player's contract may be bought out. If the contract is not bought out, his salary must be increased to the League minimum.
I suppose that could mean that nothing has to be done until the year it comes up, but it's quite a joke if the league continues to allow contracts that set up for an old guy to be playing in 2020 and scheduled to make $1 million less than the league minimum the next year.
The whole concept is ridiculous.
It would be great if he refused to retire until the contract was up and the CBA of the day prevented older players from being bought out or buried in the minors.
ReplyDeleteWith these front-loaded monster deals, Hossa, Longo, Pronger, and Kovalchuk are actually screwing their fellow players, since it is actual salary (not cap salary) that matters for the 54% of revenues that go to the players.
ReplyDeleteFront-loaded monster deals drive up the escrow percentage.
I think in the next CBA both the NHL and the NHLPA will want to stop this.
Holmgren fucked up bad this offseason. Added needless salary which necessitated a salary dump of Gagne.
ReplyDeleteJust to put it in perspective:
Patrick O'Sullivan netted am equal or better return than Simon Gagne.
That in itself is mindboggling.
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ReplyDeleteFunny how Meszaros went from being one of the top D prospects (39 points) and high point of his career, to seasoned veteran, and low point (17 points) he slowly deteriorated.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that I'm talking to myself now, but, on the Summit:
ReplyDeleteTurns out that Ken Dryden, in a 1973 co-authored by Mulvoy, was the first to draw the parallel between scoring chances (he called them scoring opportunities) and corsi. F me. I hate that cat, too.
And everything Bruce told you about the summit series was upside down. The Soviets won the corsi battle, Canada won the "getting their shots through" battle. And in a way you just wouldn't see today.
Relative to the modern game, the Soviets of 1972 are the norm, the Team Canada of 1972 is the oddity. Score effects were huge in that series too, some guy named Bendell has them all in a spreadsheet if you want to check for yourself. In that regard it's just like the modern NHL game.
Good Lord, say it ain't so. Ken F. N. Dryden.
It's heartbreaking.
Blocked shots... I don't figure how you can penalize a team for that. If the shot doesn't hits the net and it isn't because of the shooter's inaptitude, it ain't a flaw.
ReplyDeleteSame for teams who restrict the shots to poor angles.
Vic: I can probably save some time for you.
ReplyDeleteIf you go to this site:
http://www.sihrhockey.org/main.cfm
and become a member, they have a little bio on each member. Some really top drawer people who have been looking at hockey from all kinds of angles. Many have their email addresses and have been helpful to me in the past.
I'd check there.
As for your author, I have not read him. I can offer you one of the nicest things I've ever read about a person (in this case, Jacques Plante):
http://www.1972summitseries.com/plante.html
Don't fret about Nash, I'm sure Jacques, MacIntyre and O'Marra will make Oiler fans forget him in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteYeah, LT, I've been leafing through a bunch of SIHR stuff today, in lieu of work.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a guy who is fascinated wih hockey history, though I know that you and many others here are. Still, there is tremendous work there. I love the honesty of it, it puts us all to shame in that regard.
Perhaps that's what separates you from them, Lain. Why you're more well read. Your post on NHLE the other day, at Oilers Nation, was correct but dishonest. I'm sure you know why. It was compelling, though. I'm not judging either, really I'm not, 'for the greater good' and all that. A great test of character would be to see if Gabe would endorse your post, as written. That would be ineresting.
Ken Dryden wrote a book called "The Game" in the 80s, I read it as a young man. I'm sure you've read it as well, you love hockey books and this one was quite famous.
I remember it as being inconsequential, though maybe my bias towards goalies being crazy was at play, I dunno. There is one line from that book that has always stuck with me, though. And while my memory should never be trusted, it goes like this:
Dryden was given Doug Riseborough as a room-mate and described him as "Nice. Not try-like-hell nice, just nice."
Of course Riseborough would move into NHL management shortly after that and become widely regarded as a vicious prick, but that's just the job. And it's beside the point.
There is a tremendous amount of truth about humanity in that one line from Dryden.
source on Kovalchuk contract: Goes 6, 6, 5 years of 11.5, 10.5, 8.5, 6.5, 3.5, then 750, 550, 550, 550, 550, 550. AAV: 6 mill
ReplyDeleteRusso has to have this wrong.
The most a salary can drop from one year to the next is by half.
You cannot go from 3.5 to 750. I would have to have a year of minimum 1.75 then 875.
Vic: Agreed. That SIHR group are a fine bunch.
ReplyDeleteWG - I read on HF boards that the most the salary can drop in a single year of a contract is by half of the average of the first 2 years. (Its not a percentage, but a number).
ReplyDeleteIn this case: $5.25MM.
Does your reading of the CBA say different?
Deano,
ReplyDeleteNot near my computer with the PDF of the 2005 CBA.
Will check in a bit for the exact wording.
Woodguy - that place in Fernie you told me to go to with the terrific view, what was that called again?
ReplyDeleteAs for Nash, wow what a botch job that turned out to be.
Sorry, I misread the rumored Kovalchuk contract details.
ReplyDeleteIf the info I read on HF is correct, the first 2 years are @ $6MM, so the maximum the salary can drop is $3MM from one year to the next.
BD,
ReplyDeleteRip n' Richards
On the North side of the road as you cross the river on the West side of town.
Get a table on the deck for sure.
Nirvana.
Wow, my respect for Lou Lamoriello as an old school hockey guy just took a serious hit. I guess if you can turn Jason Arnott into a lynchpin on a Cup winner, anything is possible. But Kovalchuk as the new centerpiece of the Devils? What was Lou thinking? I would've thought Kovy's playoff disappearing act would've told Lou the kind of player he was buying but I guess not.
ReplyDeleteHopefully this sells a lot of regular season tix in the Jersey swamps, because it's hard to understand otherwise. This team is going to be in serious Cap Hell in 4 years. Mickey Mouse organization Part Deux?
But Kovalchuk as the new centerpiece of the Devils?
ReplyDeleteWhile 6 million per year is not cheap, I'm not sure it makes him the undisputed centerpiece. Hell, Marleau makes more in San Jose to play second fiddle.
Whether it's a hockey player or a diamond encrusted ashtray, I would daresay if you spend $100 million on anything, that becomes your de-facto centerpiece.
ReplyDeleteRusso has to have this wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe most a salary can drop from one year to the next is by half.
You cannot go from 3.5 to 750. I would have to have a year of minimum 1.75 then 875.
I had read that it was half the lesser of the first two years, from the comments here, so it can drop by up to three million in any given year. That's why Lou's leading with a pair of sixes, of all the loony things. (It also can't increase by more than 100% of the lowest of the first two years, which is why Lou went with sixes and not fives; he needed to make 11.5 in Y3 work.)
And everything Bruce told you about the summit series was upside down. The Soviets won the corsi battle, Canada won the "getting their shots through" battle. And in a way you just wouldn't see today.
ReplyDeleteVic: "Everything Bruce told you" wasn't very much. The only comment I remember even making about this aspect of the Summit Series was in the comments section of this piece over at C&B. It was in response to something Gabe Desjardins wrote about shots on goal (not at goal), in which I mentioned the fact that the Soviets had a better shooting percentage than the Canadians. Which is true: they scored 32 goals on 227 shots, Canada scored 31 goals on 267 shots. Corsi never entered the discussion because the data wasn't presented; all Gabe brought up was shots On goal. So what I said wasn't upside down at all. The Soviets did a better job of making their shots on goal count.
The new data you have found is interesting bordering on controversial. The shots on goal totals match exactly with Gabe's totals (Canada 267, USSR 227), but the shots At goal are very surprising to say the least (USSR 524, Canada 481), meaning that the Soviets had 297 failed shots to just 214 for Canada. If accurate, then certainly that means Canada won the shots through to goal battle as you say, by the very substantial margin of 55.5% to 43.3%. Which suggests that the Corsi and shots numbers are upside down relative to each other without any need to blame me at all.
I frankly find it hard to believe that the Soviets fired almost 40% more shots that missed the target than Canada did, and am left to question the veracity of these numbers. Who counted? And what was the methodology? Is there independent confirmation of these numbers, the way there is for shots?
It would be particularly interesting to get a breakdown of blocked vs. missed shots, as that would speak to a different playing style between the two squads. I sure don't remember the Soviets as being prone to wasting a lot of shots, but that said, I was 16 at the time and caught up in the emotion of the series. I'm a helluva lot older than that today, and I haven't spent a lot of the intervening years poring over game tapes. The stylistic differences between the two clubs were what made it such compelling hockey, differences which are not possible in today's game which is something of a hybrid of the two approaches.
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ReplyDeleteLT: Sorry for the mess. At my end it looked like my comment was being rejected somehow so I kept trying to repost.
ReplyDeleteI would like someone to ask the League, for clarification purposes only, at what length would they consider a contract invalid under the present CBA... 20 years? 25 years? 30 years? Where exactly is the cut-off? Next summer can TBL sign Stamkos to a 36 year deal?
ReplyDeleteOr does it go by age? 44 years old is believable? At what age is it not? 45? 47? 49?
Or is it any age, any length? Are we to believe TBL would be allowed to sign Stamkos to a 40 year deal, paying him till he is 61, with the last 15 at league minimum?
Is it important to believe that the contract is intended to be fulfilled by both parties? Or just to give a knowing wink when announcing it... no see, no hear, no tell?
Does it matter if the contract makes a mockery of the CBA, or are optics unimportant to getting a contract validated?
If Elliott Friedman could chase Mr. Bettman down and ask him these questions on National TV, I'd sure appreciate it. Just y'know, to clarify.
What a crock of shit.
Yzerman making lemonade in Tampa. He can now go sign a Stempniak and a Mitchell/Sutton type for cheap and have a pretty decent team. Two lines that can score, a decent top 4 D, and a serviceable goalie platoon.
ReplyDeleteWonder who's the next shoe to be dropped in Philly.
Bruce and Vic - I can solve this if you give me time, I have the 72 box set.
ReplyDeleteA little project. We're pretty well on the road for the next month, Fernie, Sudbury, PEI but I'll see if I can come up with answers by the end of August. If I'm really ambitious I'll see if I can get partial results up before Aug 6 which is when we head east.
And thanks Woodguy.
ReplyDeleteLee: 6 points in 5 games isn't exactly ''disapearing''
ReplyDeleteI love how good players get blamed for theyr team's defeat even if they we're pretty good.
*cough*Alex Ovechkin*cough*
I'm with FPB here, 6 million a year cap hit for a player of Kovalchuk's calibre is outstanding.
ReplyDeleteLess than Heatley, Thornton, and Marleau make to put it into perspective. It doesn't handicap the team cap wise and lets them keep/add more pieces.
As for the Kovalchuk 'disappearing' gobblelygook people like to toss out there it's complete BS. Like the constant harping on Hossa for being horrible in the playoffs which goes counter to fact.
Kovy was a PPG in New Jersey, and over a PPG in the playoffs. This while adapting to his new team, that actually has a system (button down with Lemaire).
The League really should overturn that contract though, it's clearly meant to circumvent the cap.
Gotdot, good points all except for point 2:
ReplyDelete2) Gagne had a no-trade-clause, which meant Holmgren's hands were tied in the salary dump.
When mentioning that you have to keep in mind that Holmgren put the gun to his own head by trading a 2nd round pick for 4 years of Meszaros at 4 million. He didn't have to trade Gagne till he added to the cap pressure.
Any angle you look at it Holmgren screwed the pooch. I sure hope this is all a chain of events and that he has something better up his sleeve.
the genius aspect of the kovy deal is when he is ready to retire. Lou will trade his contract to a team trying to get to the cap floor.
ReplyDeleteLou gets a player with a below market cap hit for 10 years. Then he gets an asset from the cap floor team. The cap floor team gets their actual floor reduced by 6 mill per year if they want to pay Kovy 550k.
If the league wants to close this loophole, they make the cap hit untradable after year 3 of any 5 year plus contract. In 3 years, the Devils are stuck with Kovy's cap hit for the next 17 years. Even if they trade the player, they are stuck with the cap hit.
Anonymous: I think if they went trough it would be overly complex and fuck half of the league.
ReplyDeleteThat and prevent trading even more.
Just make a rule that the 1st part of a contract shouldn't exceed 66% of the overall cost. Something like that.
I guess Stauffer was right -- just as well to be nice to him I supposed as well;) -- and that the main hurdle for Nash-as-an-Oiler was the chance to make the club out of camp.
ReplyDeleteWhile I don't see anything that says the Canes offered him a job, as LT points out the pivot depth chart is thin after Staal-Sutter so there's a great chance The 2011 Life of Riley starts in the big time.
Given what we know about him and how far the big Czeck DMan is away it seems like a loss for the Oilers.
the genius aspect of the kovy deal is when he is ready to retire. Lou will trade his contract to a team trying to get to the cap floor.
ReplyDelete*Are* there any teams trying to get to the cap floor?
Steve: Jeff Finger?
ReplyDeleteSteve - Islanders are a long way away and have 21 players signed. Atlanta as well. A few others but I can't think of them off the top of my head.
ReplyDeleteAs for these contracts, well they are within the rules so who cares, really? And there are enough teams that have signed them that at worse they will be grandfathered in next CBA? You really think Bettman is going to screw NJ, Chicago, Philly? He'll be out of a job if he tries that.
They are perfect contracts. Players get their money and when Hossa and Kovalchuk retire the cap hit comes off the books. The team is gambling but the gamble is only for the first part of the deal. Kovalchuk for 6 mill or Hossa for 5 or whatever he makes is pretty sweet, no matter how you slice it. Guys are both top notch.
Hmm. Will be interesting to see how he does in Carolina. I'm sure that if he has any form of success there, we'll hear about it non-stop.
ReplyDeletePat Mc : I'll be home for three weeks this summer, and I'll have a bit of time here and there (like at the cottage) where I could help you out with that tracking project. I've got the series on my backup HD. I think I remember some bits of the broadcast missing here and there though, in a game or two...
ReplyDeleteI don't really see any problem with these kinds of contracts; unless you count the fact that the city of Edm's so undesirable and/or the team's been in the sewer so long that we don't get a chance to ink anyone to these kinds of contracts.
ReplyDeleteIf there's always going to be a few chasing the minimum the Heatley bonus makes sense. Low cash teams would trade value to get cap space without having to pay cash.
ReplyDeleteDennis: If Edmonton being a slum keeps us away from 17 year contracts then it's a good thing.
ReplyDeleteI'll be honest. I like stats but I think gaudy scoring stats can do a lot to hide a player's other deficiencies. Kovalchuk has not elevated his game on the big stage (the Olympics being the most recent example). He's not a great defensive player or leader and if Atlanta's continuing failures to make the playoffs are any indication, he doesn't inspire those around him to elevate their game.
ReplyDeleteCiting the $6 million price tag while ignoring the $11.5 million salary to come seems disingenuous to me. And for what it's worth, there's a number of other teams that apparently decided Kovalchuk wasn't worth this much either so I'm hardly alone in this assessment. To me, this deal looks more Lecavalier albatross than it does Franzen value. As always, time will tell.
How many teams would trade right now for Kovy and his contract?
ReplyDeleteI would think that a number of teams would if they didn't have budget constraints (as opposed to cap ones).
It's a good contract for the devils, just bad for the integrity of the bargaining agreement and for the other players.
hey Julian, you're on, send me a mail at pat_mclean@opticalonline.com and we'll figure out a plan.
ReplyDeleteYou're right THIC, a lot of teams probably would take Kovy's contract for the sole reason that they're in the entertainment business and the tix ROI from Kovalchuk (at least on that basis) looks encouraging.
ReplyDeleteI thought that Lou was an old school guy who would only spend that money if he felt the player in question was a potential Conn Smythe winner. That's why I've lost respect for him. From a pure dollars and cents point of view, the contract probably makes good sense (particularly as it's taking the absolute piss out of the CBA). It makes no sense to me whatsoever as a hockey decision. Ilya Kovalchuk is not the 2nd coming of Steve Yzerman or Sidney Crosby.
He sure does put up some impressive numbers in the regular season though!
Sure Pat. My girlfriend might be interested too, she's into this sorta thing. You know, counting shots on net in 40 year old games. Yes, I'm serious.
ReplyDeleteGuy Flaming was on the Team 1260 morning saying that they are going to have Riley Nash on their show tonight.
ReplyDeleteGiven that tape of Nash's musings on Flaming's show was requested by the Oilers last time he was on (where he said he'd probably do 4 years at Cornell then go FA after Aug 15, 2011), he may provide some good sound bites again. /ad for Guy
Also,
I thought that Lou was an old school guy who would only spend that money if he felt the player in question was a potential Conn Smythe winner. That's why I've lost respect for him. From a pure dollars and cents point of view, the contract probably makes good sense (particularly as it's taking the absolute piss out of the CBA). It makes no sense to me whatsoever as a hockey decision. Ilya Kovalchuk is not the 2nd coming of Steve Yzerman or Sidney Crosby.
Lou's boss Jeffrey Vanderbeek has a rink to pay for and competition in the Newark area for sports and entertainment is fierce. I'd suggest that has a lot to do with the signing.
Lou has stated in the past he thought these types of contracts were horseshit. But its Lou, so he's not above using them when HE needs them.
Standard.
I've read her work Julian - I know you're serious. And one lucky dude.
ReplyDeleteDrop me a line and we'll arrange the games. I already have a taker for games 4 and 5.
DGB hits it out of the park again:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.downgoesbrown.com/2010/07/leaked-ilya-kovalchuks-contract.html
I think that the best part of the Kovy deal is that Lou is only going to be around for the two $6 mil years. He will retire when that contract hits the $11 mil mark and the resultant shit show will be someone else's problem after that.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it is an average yearly cap hit of $6 mil, those 5 years at $11 mil are going to be a headache if Kovy isn't producing.
//Bruce and Vic - I can solve this if you give me time, I have the 72 box set.//
ReplyDeleteI'll be home for three weeks this summer, and I'll have a bit of time here and there (like at the cottage) where I could help you out with that tracking project.
BDHS & Julian: That would be way cool. I've been puzzling over those shots at goal numbers, trying to decide if they are an artifact of some sort - e.g. two different scorers counting for the two different teams (see NHL's RTSS for the type of shit show that can result from that) - or if they actually reflect real differences between the team's approaches.
If you do decide to split the project, I suggest that one person count all the shot attempts for both teams for a given game, and split the games odds and evens or first four/last four. Ideally you would count in the current NHL format: shots on goal, missed shots, shots that were blocked. The first could be compared to the official shots on goal totals to calibrate your own count; and the latter two could be summed to see if Chidlovski's numbers are on the mark, but considered separately to mine more information about playing styles (e.g. did Canada block way more shots?)
Yes they are almost 40-year-old games, but they represent a major turning point in the history of the game and the full vids are available. I may have to acquire that box set myself ... if I get it I'll offer to help out somehow.
Watching the news last night I saw the operation on the boy from Edmonton with the swelling in the face. It turned out great and he is going to have a 'normal' life now.
ReplyDeleteBut what caught my eye was the dad wearing a Brule jersey. I did a quick look and was reminded about how #67 dropped $10 000 to help the family get the operations in the first place. I imagine that will be the favorite player of that family for some years to come.
This is the kind of thing the NHL needs more of, since it is what makes them look good, and not just the players.
So, once again, good on ya Gilbert. You're showing us all how to do it (just don't sign here for more than $2M per season, please).
I know this makes me sound like an old fart but the numbers on some of these sports contracts nowadays are simply surreal.
ReplyDeleteI think it's fair to surmise that at some when he's at the $11.5 million level, Kovy's production will drop to 30 goals a year (whether through injury, age, disinterest or all of the above). At this point, his annual salary will equate to $383,333 per goal. That better be a helluva highlight reel score. You'd hate to pay that for a garbage rebound.
And we wonder why good sports ducats are rapidly exceeding the grasp of the common working stiff?
Bar Qu:
ReplyDeleteBen Massey has more on Brule's efforts over at Copper-N-Blue.
From the linked article:
“When I heard he was going back for another surgery ... I thought, ‘We might as well go there when he’s there and make a trip of it,’ ” he said. “Hopefully I can help his day out a little bit and bring him some gifts."
Lee: Not a single common worker will generate 15M$ in profits by itself. Probably even more.
ReplyDelete(His signings VS what he brings to the team financially)
The beauty of Kovalchuk is he scores playing with plugs. Very dangerous especially if you have a guy like Parise already in your lineup.
ReplyDeleteSmarmy, although I haven't seen Kovalchuk fight, words like "fight", "girl" and "Semin" inevitably go together. That fight was pathetic. Wanna see a man bitch-slap another one? in the NHL? lol... brutal.
ReplyDeleteKovalchuk is at least a great player... semin on the other hand...
Loudog: You mean the one where he plays the bongos?
ReplyDeleteSmarmy: Well at least he fights lol.
fpv: if thats the fight where he fights like a 10 year old girl, yes. I laughed my ass off when I saw that.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/56289
ReplyDelete(still trying to curb my snorts of laughter in a very quiet office)
*Remembering back in the day when Kovalchuk beat up a ten year old little girl named Comrie*
ReplyDeleteMacT kicked his ass with illegal curve calls though.
Pat/Bruce/Julian:
ReplyDeleteAwesome stuff guys. Apparently the scorers were a bit dodgy in that series. One of the guys at SIHR went through the tapes and found that Brad Park had seven points, he was officially only credited with four.
Oddly enough, I think it was the scorers for the Canadian games that were he dodgy ones.
And Bruce, sorry if I painted you with the wrong bruch. Every older dude on the internet loves to wax lyrical about how the Russians in '72 played a game we wouldn't even recognize. I had wrongly remembered you as being one of them.
If you guys record who was on the ice, for both teams, for every shot attempt ... we'll be cooking with gas. I'm stoked about this.
That's no easy to do when you're not familiar with the players, but it will be worth it.
In 1973 Ken Dryden mentions shots AT goal as being a proxy for scoring opportunities. I kind of doubt that he came up with that on his own, though who knows what the hell the Habs were up to in that era.
This wasn't the first time that corsi was recorded. 1966 at the WHCs in Slovenia is the earliest I can find, but I think that both the Germans and Swedes were recording it before then.
Surprised o see such a ridiculously big Corsi+ for Esposito. Even more surprised to see Henderson so hihg up on the board in that regard. Might be from a whack of PP time though, I dunno.
Some seriuos score effects in play there as well, by the looks of it.
I'll get the set and do the Zone Start numbers if nobody else does. I've also sent an email to Chidlovski wih a few questions.
We're geting somewhere now, folks. Very cool.
Surprised o see such a ridiculously big Corsi+ for Esposito. Even more surprised to see Henderson so hihg up on the board in that regard.
ReplyDeleteI've been watching the Series this past week, I'm up to Game 4, 2nd Period.
Esposito, Cournoyer and the
Clarke-Henderson-Ellis line were strong for Canada from the start.
Almost every shift.
F Mahovilich, Park, Bergman, Stapleton, Lapointe & Savard were good.
P Mahovolich, Ratelle, Bill White, Parise and Cashman were decent.
The rest were varying degrees of suck.
That's how I saw it [I've seen it?]
We'll see how my perceptions match up.
The interesting thing about the Kovalchuk contract is that the monster salary years don't begin until the 2012-2013 season.
ReplyDeleteGiven that the current CBA expires in 2012, it makes me wonder why that's the case.
The most obvious consequence is that if there is another lockout for a season, Kovalchuk will not be paid his 11.5 million salary at least once in 2012-2013. This is of course subject to more information revealing that his salary in that year is partially a bonus (which is still paid out, even if there is a lockout).
In any case, of the 98.5 million in the "real years" of the contract ending in 2020-2021, that 11.5 million represents about 11.6% of the total money paid out to Kovalchuk.
My bet would be that Lou has hedged his bet both ways by having the real money in the contract start after the current CBA ends. If an extended lockout occurs, he's not paying his marquee signing his big money and arguably the NHL will have at least one superstar pushing for the re-commencement of play.
Alternatively, if contracts over a certain length are rendered a nullity in the new incoming CBA, Lou again escapes without paying out any big years on the contract.
Sometimes I wonder what it would be like to have a GM smarter than the average fan...
Vic,
ReplyDeleteNot sure if this helps Park's point total or lack thereof, but I know in the Soviet days, referees had the discretion to award the second assist on every goal. You would only get the assist if the referee deemed it worthy.
Gregor points to this article that covers Lamoriellos thoughts on the Kovalchuk deal. A snippet....
ReplyDeleteHe also said he “absolutely” rolled his eyes when Kovalchuk’s contract was completed.
So why would he sign Kovalchuk to such a deal?.
“You’d have to speak to ownership about that,” Lamoriello said.
crazycoach,
ReplyDeleteYeah, that may be it. They still do it that way in most of Europe. It's the only area that the Euros record hockey stats worse that the Canadians imo. Thats why Desjardins' NHLEs for Euro leagues have such a wide band of error for points, but a similar band to CHL or AHL for goals.
Our way is better. EV+, or third assists if they had them, would be better yet.
A guy named Bendell also went through the tapes and figures that he scorers undercounted shots in that series. Equally for both sides. You can google that and find his online, game-by-game spreadsheet easily. He's another one of those marvelous SIHR cats.
Unfortunately none of these SIHR guys bothers to separate EV from special teams play, so they have a shitload of data that isn' of much use to us.
crazycoach,
ReplyDeleteAlso, we won't know until we know, bu I've been digging through enough of this stuff over the past couple of days o be geting a sharper sense of it. I think that Canada learned a lot about EV play from the Russians in that series, and the Russians learned a lot abou special teams.
I have no idea how the actual results poined, and in such a short series, 8 games, i wouldn't mean a lot anyways. But I suspect that the underlying numbers will point that way emphatically.
We'll see.
Thanks, Vic. I found this on Richard Bendell. According to the embedded spreadsheet his adjusted shots totals are 282-244 Canada instead of 267-227, so both teams adjusted upwards by about 15 shots.
ReplyDeleteVic: We have to get you a new typewriter. :-)
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a lock out or strike when the CBA is up everyone involved is a total moron.
ReplyDeleteBasketball is almost on it's knees. Any momentum the league has gotten with Crosby and Ovechkin will be lost.
Bruce:
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's a boatload of work from Bendell, you gotta give him props. But like almost every non-Oiler fan who looks at these things, he doesn't bother to separate out special teams, so it doesn't help us a lot.
LT:
My theory is that I will condition myself to press harder on the T key in time. There is a bit of blue flubber under that key, I've been trying to get it out like a microsurgeon ... it hasn't worked.
Time to scrub up and cut 'er open, like a young Louis Pasteur. You won't need the internet in St. Albert to hear my swearing if I wreck this machine, Lain. But I have to have a go.
Team Canada without Serge Savard against the Soviets in 1972:
ReplyDelete0 wins, 3 losses.
Team Canada with Serge Savard against the Soviets in 1972:
4 wins, 1 tie, no losses.
If not for a career impact by two broken legs, he likely would have been one of the top ten defensemen of all time.
Vic - if it's a laptop, the keys are meant to pop off. Get a butter knife under there and give it a twist, it'll pop out. Push down when you're done cleaning and it'll click right back in.
ReplyDeleteDisclaimer one: I'm just a guy from the internet who used to fix a lot of computers.
Disclaimre two: Unless you know your keyboard layout off by heart, don't pop them all off at once. It's technology's cruelest puzzle to put back together.
Losing Riley Nash because the "leadership" team of the Oilers can't be patient or make a deal every other club can and will do really irritates me.
ReplyDeleteI have an awful feeling this one really bites us 2 years down the road.
Vic: I hear you. Nothing more frustrating than a computer that won't work.
ReplyDeleteWow, the league actually grew a pair and voided the Kovy deal.
ReplyDeleteHaha, that's hilarious.
ReplyDeleteDelicious.
ReplyDeleteLooks good on Lou Lam.
I don't see how it won't go through eventually (Luongo, anyone?)... but it's still hilarious.
Schitzo and Vic:
ReplyDeleteBe careful, not all laptop keyboards are designed to have their keys pop off. Some like the Dell Vostros have a solid keyboard that can be removed like a slate. Some have individual keys covered by a plate like in the new Asus i5 offerings, and on and on.
So don't go sticking a butter knife in there unless you're sure of what you're doing. Simplest and best thing to do is Google the laptop model and the word open or disassemble and you'll likely find a manual describing how to do exactly that.
It's good that the NHL rejected the contract, however, if I'm Lou I'd challenge that ruling right away citing the Marian Hossa contract as precedent, and to a lesser extent the Johan Franzen contract et al.
ReplyDeleteThanks Schitzo, that worked. I'm glad I wielded the butter knife before reading uni's warning.
ReplyDeleteI was cursing you for a while there, though. If you have a Toshiba laptop prise the keys up from the side, saves you some worry and work.
I was cursing you for a while there, though.
ReplyDeleteHah, won't be the last time I hear that one.
Godot: That stat on Savard is one of my favourites from that series. Great, great player. Even with the broken legs, he's on my personal top 10 defenders I've ever seen list (which covers about half of the NHL's history).
ReplyDeleteHaha, well that's good to know about the laptop. I guess I'm a bit overly cautious from my days working in IT at a college.
ReplyDeleteSo many broken laptop keyboards...so many. Then again most of the time it was coffee or soda pop spill instead of broken keys.