Among the solid moves by Steve Tambellini in the calendar year 2010 was the acquistion of Colin Fraser for a 6th round pick. He then signed Fraser to a 2-year contract for $825,000 a season. That's probably in the 9-12 range among forwards on the salary depth chart. Is that where he'll play?
Fraser went 48.8% in the FO circle (445 sorties) and played 9:35 a game for 70 games (7-12-19 +6 92 shots). Fraser did suit up for the playoffs 3 times. He played 4line opposition with 4line help and had a 52% offensive-zone start. He did PK (1:26 a night) and if he can help out in that area the Oilers will gladly pay him in full.
When he signed June 24, I posted the following:
- Whose job will he be taking? Several candidates come to mind. Cogliano took 379 FO's last year, Pouliot played the wing (when healthy) but his slot might be open by summer's end. Ryan Potulny might be a little vulnerable. Ethan Moreau, Robert Nilsson and Patrick O'Sullivan are vulnerable to everything. I don't want to overstate the issue, in fact someone like Pouliot (with say Ryan Jones) could end up being a solid line. There is no way to project a top 12F for the 10-11 Oilers and exclude Colin Fraser. That makes this a good trade.
From that list, only Cogliano and Ryan Jones are still Oilers. One month later. A lot of movement, and now a much clearer picture on the bottom 2 lines. The Oilers are going to be tougher, more likely to fight, aggressive forecheckers and are unlikely to fill the net.
Among the signed forwards, I'd count Fraser, Ryan Jones, Zack Stortini, JF Jacques and Steve MacIntyre as strong candidates for slots 10-14. Fair? Among the other signed forwards, I'd estimate 1-9 would probably be Penner, Hemsky, Horcoff, Gagner, Hall, Brule, Pääjärvi, Omark, Cogliano.
There aren't too many crossovers. Horcoff needs to be in the top 6 in order to face the toughest opponent (why? because the Oilers don't have veteran wingers who can play a checking game successfully), Gagner should center the 2nd skill line. The top 4 wingers are likely to be Penner, Hemsky, Hall and Brule. The Oilers are going to have a terrible time sending out the other two kids (Pääjärvi and Eberle) so that means someone (likely Fraser or Cogliano) will center the kids.
- Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
- Gagner-Hall-Brule
- Cogliano-Pääjärvi-Eberle
- Fraser-Omark/Jones-Stortini
- Jacques-MacIntyre
Can you call it "run and gun" offense when the puck spends most of the night in your zone? I like the Fraser deal, am heartened by the tremendous quality arriving from juniors and Europe and believe Gagner will have a strong season in 2010-11. I remain a believer in Shawn Horcoff's wide range of skills, Penner's outstanding range of skills and Ales Hemsky's sublime talent.
However, the depth chart above needs work and there are affordable free agent options available. A veteran center to help Horcoff and Fraser on the PK, a veteran RW to mentor the kids when they're struggling. I don't see Fraser and Jones as being those veterans who can fill the FO/PK/mentor role, but if we slide through August without any movement the die will be cast. We're buying lottery tickets.
Unless more than one of the youngsters and rookies develop into tough minute demons overnight, which is implausible, that top 9 is gonna get killed.
ReplyDeleteD is pretty below average. And goal is likely to be a terrible disaster all year.
I'm for signing another veteran or two.
I like
Penner-Horcoff-Brule
Paajarvi-Veteran-Hemsky
Hall-Gagner-Cogs/Eberle
Jones-Fraser-Stortini
SMac,JFJ, etc.
Still not great, but lines 2 and 3 won't get killed as badly.
BTW, is Jones getting a roster spot a sure thing? Guy wasn't exactly a hot commodity, no?
Will they really start Omark on the team if his only spot is on the fourth line? I think either he pushes one of the new kids (Paajarvi or Eberle) to the farm or ends up there himself. I can see this team having a non-traditional third line, especially with Renney's commitment to learning on the fly, but I don't see Omark really fitting in with the likes of Jones, Stortini, Jacques and Fraser. Exactly who is supposed to trade the puck with him? I'd rather see Omark (or whichever of Eberle or Paajarvi he beats out) line up with Giroux than with Fraser.
ReplyDeleteOf course, this could all change if Cogliano is dealt before camp for a D-man or a prospect/pick. Then I think there's a very interesting camp battle between Omark and possibly Vande Velde.
I still think Omark has a better shot of beating someone at camp than many people have suggested; I wouldn't bet against his success in multiple tough pro leagues. Just because Eberle, Hall and Paajarvi seem to have brighter long-term futures doesn't mean that they're better as of September 2010.
Kris, aren't having the kids get killed and learn on the fly the point of this year? At some point, Hall, Paajarvi and Eberle all need to learn how to play defence at an NHL level. Why should we be more hesistant for them to make mistakes and learn on the defensive side of the puck as the offensive? I think an argument could be made that with no pure checking center, there's a unique opportunity for the kids to learn what you have to do to check at an NHL level. I mean, what, do you expect them to win this year?
ReplyDeleteJones is physical, has played in the NHL before, and isn't being asked to play more than a fourth line role. I don't think asking him to hold down the 12-14 roster spot is a reach.
LT said...
ReplyDeleteI don't see Fraser and Jones as being those veterans who can fill the FO/PK/mentor role, but if we slide through August without any movement the die will be cast. We're buying lottery tickets.
Agree with all three points.
Souray and Cogliano/Brule are still the wildcards this off-season... Souray maybe even moreso if he isn't moved and plays with The Drop, although we have yet to hear any framing that way so it seems unlikely.
I like Kris' lines, as long as that vet 2C has a little O upside. Comrie, if he had some stamina and a little better D would be a fit.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see Tambo 3.0 sign a free agent forward in August (or tomorrow) and invite another to a training camp tryout. This to keep one (or both) of Eberle or Pääjärvi learning against the triple A pitching for 30 to 40 games this year. It would also protect against the injuries which we know will happen.
ReplyDeleteThe gentlemen on my list (in order) would be:
(+) Dominic Moore,
(*) Richard Park,
(*) Jere Lehtinen,
(+) Alexei Ponikarovsky,
(*) John Madden,
(*) Lee Stempniak
* means one year contract only
+ means one or two year contract
Mason Raymond awarded 5.1m for two seasons. drafted the same year as brule, 45 spots later.
ReplyDeletemason totals:
GM 203, 45 G , 52 A , 97 PTS , +3, 13PPG
mason last season:
82, 25, 28, 53, level, 8
Brule totals:
222, 31, 41, 72, -38, 8
brule last season:
65, 17, 20, 37, -8, 2
LT, often talks about cogliano having three first season and i think that something similar can be said about brule. I don't think the two sets of stats above look very similar, which is good for the oilers. the oilers/BJs and the Canucks have been much different teams so it's a little difficult to compare the players, but behind the net says (min 20 gm played):
Mason:
8th qual Team (canucks are a funny team to look at for QT)
2nd qual Comp
Brule:
6th qual Team
11tth qual Comp
Those look like pretty different players to me.
If I were the oiler's i'd look say that brule projects to be glennX type player.
The longer that the offseason goes without the Oilers signing someone cheap on the backend or up front to help the kids, the more I think that Tambellini is hoping to tank next year.
ReplyDeleteIt makes sense. And I'm not even talking about overpaying someone to come here. It appears that no one really wants a Moore or a Belanger at the prices they are asking for anymore, so I don't think it would take an overpayment. This is more like purposeful, intentional inaction.
Cloned: Agreed. If you're going to do it, do it right.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't doing it right involve signing UFA's to one year deals that you can flip at the deadline for picks while sheltering the kids and forcing them to earn their spots?
ReplyDeletePDO:
ReplyDeleteThe real danger is that some of those signings might actually make this team competitive.
Gasp!
Cloned:
ReplyDeleteGood thing they'd only bring them up to not being a laughing stock.
Deal 'em away at the deadline and you have 20 games to piss it all back away anyway.
... besides this team is FUBAR until the goaltending is fixed anyway.
PDO: It depends. If you want a lottery pick, this is the way to do it imo. There are fewer than 6 forwards a coach can count on here, and that's when everyone is healthy.
ReplyDeleteI mean, last year was a blur but if Hemsky, Pisani etc stay healthy there's at least some semblance on a lineup. This lineup lacks established NHL players, 4 forwards who are obvious PK candidates (Horcoff, Fraser, ???) and on it goes.
Here are the forwards from a year ago (nhl.com) and their PK TOI per game:
1. Horcoff 2:22
2. Pisani 2:17
3. Potulny 2:08
4. Moreau 2:08
5. O'Sullivan 1:35
6. Penner 1:15
7. Pouliot 1:02
That group helped the Oilers to 26th place in PK percentage so changes needed to be made.
However, who did they get (Fraser aside) to replace all those minutes that are gone?
Lottery.
UNLESS they plan on adding someone in late July/August.
PDO:
ReplyDeleteTrue enough. It's what Lombardi did in LA for years while he waited for his prospects and picks to mature.
That said, I think the Oilers have their sights squarely set on Larsson.
So with the lottery pick stuff, this begs the question...
ReplyDelete... do the Oilers understand that Chicago won the cup because they had Kane and Toews from the lottery and Pittsburgh won the cup because they had Malkin and Staal were paying them peanuts relative to their worth thanks to ELC's, or do they think Chcicago won the cup because they got a bunch of high picks that became good players?
Because it's a pretty significant distinction.
The Oilers are NOT going to get another defenseman until Souray is gone, or unless the defenseman comes in return for Souray.
ReplyDeleteI think the Oilers would prefer to trade a forward for a forward rather than sign an UFA (i.e. Cogliano for an established centre)..
They should be in no hurry to sign a UFA forward. Wait until the free agents are desparate. Giving Cogliano one more chance would not be a terrible thing. He looked decent between Penner and Brule at the end of last season.
I don't see how this team isn't pretty decent to be honest.
ReplyDeleteThough what they should do now is go out and sign Comrie, Guerin and one more.
That drives the Jones/Fraser/Jacques/Mac etc off the roster (you hope) or gives the kids time to come in fresh nearer the end of the season.
And what if Omark is actually something special? Good luck stopping that team from scoring.
Offence wins championships in this league. We're about to have a whole whack.
All I see are the chances of grabbing Larson increasing.
ReplyDeleteThe Tambellini master plan, tank 2 years to grab Hall and Larsson.
Have Hall, MPS, Eberle, Larsson learn in the AHL and come into the lineup.
Profit.
The Chicago, Pittsburgh model, suck for a lot of years, get very lucky in the draft with some good picks tossed in, profit.
Wouldn't doing it right involve signing UFA's to one year deals that you can flip at the deadline for picks while sheltering the kids and forcing them to earn their spots?
ReplyDeleteThis is exactly right IMO.
You can basically buy a 2nd round pick right now by signing Moore or Poni to a 1 year deal.
If JD3 are the big club starter/backup out of camp then both the Barons and the Oilers are going to suck. I am more worried about the OKC team than the Oilers. A solid AHL goalie (Danis?) would be great right now.
There are three big question marks impacting the roster construction right now.
ReplyDeleteThere is Bulin. I am not sure what Tambo can do about that now.
There is Souray. A trade could involve a return of some overpriced forward. So you need a spot.
And there is Cogs. He is the canary in the coalmine. If they keep him, they are not really concerned about the playoffs.
If you go out and get another forward there is no room for him. As it is he doesn't want to play a checking role and he is not top 6.
We keep talking about development of the kids but in many ways this year is more about the development of Brule, Gagner, Smid and Cogs. As well, is Penner going to repeat or revert back to 08-09? Is Hemsky ever going to break out? Is Horcoff going to bounce back? Is Gilbert/ Whitney a legit top pairing?
It seems there are still too many questions to worry about bringing in a vet now.
Yeah, kris' alternative forward line-up highlights the problem for me.
ReplyDeleteIf we break up the big three line, how is Brule going to do against good opposition? Probably not well, there are a lot of things to like about his game, but the dude cherrypicks. Even strong side, for crying out loud. Start playing against the other team's best forwards and that's going to start becoming a real problem.
Plus, we have the scoring chances for about 15 Islander and Lightning games ... how do you think Tavares and Stamkos faired in terms of scoring chances in those? I don't know, but I imagine it was an asskicking. And that's with very favourable playing conditions for both (the Isles and Bolts were both selling hope, after all).
And those are very high end rookies, and both have terrific finish. One day they will probably both be amongst the leagues best outchancers, and they will surely both continue to be able to bury a lot of them. That day is a ways off, though.
So I just don't see how three rookies are going to help the Oilers with their biggest problem (getting outplayed and outchanced).
There just isn't enough shelter to keep all the kids dry. And that's before injuries hit.
This could end badly.s
LMHF
ReplyDeleteUnless this team has a terrific powerplay they just aren't going to score very much.
It reminds me a bit of the PHX team coming out of the lockout, the one that so many Oiler fans were envious of. If you added up the offensive numbers for the players from previous seasons, they looked like they were going to score a tonne of goals. People forecast that they would allow a lot of goals, but score even more!
Turned out that they just spent a lot of time in their own end, so never got enough scoring chances, and allowed too many against. So they didn't score enough, and allowed too many goals against. The losses piled up.
It's fine to have some opportunists in the line-up imo, provided you aren't paying too much for them. But if you don't have a bunch of other guys on the squad that can create territorial advantage, and create scoring chances from that ... well, they don't do you much good.
Renney made Nylander look good for crying out loud. Gave him huge counting numbers and a big +/-. Tilted the ice for him and Jagr like crazy, even more than Hitchcock, Q or MacTavish ever did. Got them out against secondary opp or tired legs, etc.
He can do the same for one of the rookies, but not all three.
Brule was our only center over 50% last year (of guys taking regular-ish draws). I think keeping him at center wouldn't be so bad. I'd prefer him at center than Cogliano, and would prefer Cogliano on the wing (Cogs is a fave of mine, so that is no slight against him btw).
ReplyDeleteThe other thought goes back to Mr. VV... if he makes the team, that changes things a bit. Maybe then Cogliano becomes moveable and he can center a kid line (i.e. MPS/Eberle).
Vic - How much does that take change if we add a line of quality veterans to the mix? They're out there; cheap; and would give us flexibility re: the kids. It's the best way to move forward and get the winning started.
ReplyDeleteI wish Lubomir was still here because this would be a great year to have his ability to get the puck moving out of the zone to create offence. We all know how successful he and Hemsky were together.
I'm not saying it won't take some surprises for this team to be really good; but I think last year has people jaded in such a violent way that the baseline is being set low in self-defence.
Also - Aren't they going to have a terrific PP?
ReplyDeleteNever bet on an Edmonton PP.
ReplyDeleteVic, if all 3 rookies were on the same line and the other three lines were of the types that can push the puck forward, woudn't that be do-able? As far as sheltering goes?
LMHF - We ask the powerplay question every year. It never happens. We haven't upgraded any of the people that are going to play on the powerplay so likely it will be around the same. We can only hope that Gagner takes it up a knotch and that the "new" coach has some good ideas.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the oilogoshere is once again more worried about the competition than anything else.
ReplyDeleteTypical MacT thinking in how he would create his plan based on who he was facing rather than create the clubs own identity. I think Knighttown hammered this point home a couple years ago (where did that guy go?).
Kids don't win games. Veterans don't win games. Good players win games.
I'll take my chances with MPS/Eberle/Hall over Reasoner/Moore/Dowd any day of the week.
Possession is great and all but I would rather a 60 yard TD pass over running 7 minutes off the clock and giving Horcoff a chance to kick a 40 yard field goal.
@LMHF
ReplyDeleteIt's not firewagon hockey out there - defense still matters. Who plays on the Oilers PK? If your team's PK is in the bottom five - you're in trouble. BIG trouble.
2009/10 bottom five PK teams:
26. Oilers
27. Stars
28. Predators
29. Islanders
30. Leafs.
Only one of those five (Preds) made the playoffs. Three of those five teams ended in the bottom five for overall standings. I think there's a correlation between bad PK and results.
Theoretically Penner, Hemsky and Hall is an upgrade on the PP unit (if Hall can play centre like he has said) with a Gagner, MPS, Eberle/Brule/Horcoff second unit (I am not sure of positions for the 2nd) being no worse than last year.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the Oil simply are a blackhole in the man advantage category.
Also, all this talk of being terrible another year (with poor D and NK/JDD/DD in net) really begs the question of why Hall should make this year's team. If he is going to be as good as NHLE suggests, then he will be getting a big payday along with all the other young stars at the end of their ELCs (and maybe Eberle and MPS should play the year in OKC). If all three young'uns are here this year, this would make the Oil 3 years from now much more like the Hawks in a very bad way. And the history of contract signing suggests there is no one in the organisation who can handle this upcoming problem with deftness or foresight.
What I meant is historically the Oil are a blackhole in the man advantage category.
ReplyDeleteCannot think and type at the same time.
"We ask the powerplay question every year. It never happens. We haven't upgraded any of the people that are going to play on the powerplay so likely it will be around the same. We can only hope that Gagner takes it up a knotch and that the "new" coach has some good ideas."
ReplyDeleteGagner PP minutes per game - 2:46
Horcoff PP minutes per game - 2:50
Gagner PPP/60 - 5.74
Horcoff PPP/60 - 2.80
It appears that Gagner has already stepped up and success hinges more on giving our best players more minutes and others like Horcoff, less.
Is there a reason why Horcoff played more on the PP last year than the PK?
Jay McClement averaged 3:56 on the PK last year compared to Horcoff's 2:12.
Do we need more PKers or do we need to use our best defensive players accordingly?
there's still some talk of bringing Comrie back. hear it on the radio from time to time.
ReplyDeleteGagner PP minutes per game - 2:46
ReplyDeleteHorcoff PP minutes per game - 2:50
Hmm...Why does NHL.com give me
PP TOI/G
Horcoff: 2:37
Gagner: 2:36
In any case, if Gagner continues to improve and takes some of that time away from Horcoff, that's great. He'd then be taking it up a notch.
Is there a reason why Horcoff played more on the PP last year than the PK?
Probably the same reason he took over 400 less draws than he did the previous year. The shoulder issues had to be a problem.
Blue Jackets V. Oilers Top 9
ReplyDeleteHuselius < Hemsky
Umberger < or = Horcoff
Nash > Penner
Top Line is a draw
Vermette > Gagner (for now)
Brassard =? Brule
Voracek = Hall (rookie year)
Filatov = Eberle
Pahlsson > MPS (for now)
Whoever = Cogliano/Fraser
I think Columbus' top 9 looks a little better than ours right now. At best it's roughly equal. If two of Hall, MPS, and Eberle can kill tough minutes we'll be better than Columbus.
That isn't saying much.
If two or three or the rookies are bleeding chances against and shots against, then a guy like Moore would do a lot of good, especially when the injuries come.
I'm with LT, if they go with this lineup, they want another lottery pick.
"giving Horcoff a chance to kick a 40 yard field goal."
ReplyDeleteThe 0-4 Esk are itching to fire someone and Traktor's suggesting Horcoff.
I may be wrong about some of these matchups. it doesn't matter. We're still roughly equal to COlumbus.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe amount of offense our talented rookies create won't offset the amount they give up against other teams veteran top 9's. (Even rookies like Stamkos weren't an exception to this.)
ReplyDeleteBut guys like Moore can play other team's top 9 players to a reasonable draw.
In terms of chances and GF-GA, I bet Moore v. Datsyuk is a lot better than Eberle v. Datsyuk. (I know, they play different positions, but you get the point.)
I'm okay with a lottery pick, but let's not pretend this lineup is something it isn't.
That said, MPS and Hall could become tough minute killers 25+ goal scorers. (It's plausible, even if somewhat improbable.) If they do, we could be good. (At F, anyway.)
But that's even more reason to sign a veteran like Moore to play with them or behind them in case we're battling for a playoff spot and against injuries.
---
Traktor keeps using every thread to discuss playing Horcoff against tough competition, and playing Hemsky and Penner against the softs.
I'm okay with trying this, but there is one obvious problem that prevents it.
1. The only players we have, other than Horcoff, that can stop the leagues best -the Sedins, Zetterberg, Heatley, Toews- from dancing all over our heads, getting chance after chance, after chance are Hemsky and Penner
I'd be happy to put Horcoff with two veterans who can defend well against tough opposition. But we don't have them, and we haven't since Moreau and Pisani's game fell apart due to injury and illness. (This is another reason to sign veterans.)
Look at the options:
Jones-Horcoff-Brule
A 4th liner who gets waived, and a kid who struggles against weaker opposition.
MPS-Horcoff-Eberle
This is a nice line, but against the Sedins, they won't be able to clear the puck from their own zone or do anything positive.
Remember the Blackhawks beating up on Nilsson, POS, Cogliano, and Gagner. If our touted rookies play like touted rookies are supposed to play, the whole of next year will be like those Blackhawks games.
We've seen this show the past few summers and its going to be ugly again most likely. The D is thin and the goaltending is unsettled and there are a lot of nice kids up front (a few who will likely be quite good) but this club is a ways from being any good.
ReplyDeleteThat's fine. Suck this year and pick up another bluechipper. They're not good enough to make the playoffs unless the kids are terrific, they get value for Souray and Cogliano to help with the blue and the PK, Khabibulin stays healthy and plays very well for sixty plus games, the overall health of the club is topnotch etc etc etc.
They need way way too many things to go well to be in the hunt so lets hope that Renney gets things pointed in the right direction, the kids are quick learners and they can build something for the next couple of seasons.
Ribs - "We haven't upgraded any of the people that are going to play on the powerplay so likely it will be around the same." Huh?
ReplyDeleteHemsky
Hall
Eberle
Penner
Gagner
Brule
Comrie (theoretical but likely)
is better than last year. A lot better.
All - If you want Horcoff to play anywhere other than with Hemsky plus either Penner or Hall, seriously the answer is you sign Comrie and Guerin (or someone like him) and play him in between. That would work and provide a decent amount of offence. Comrie and Horcoff played surprisingly well together last year in limited action.
if not for his damn mono last year, Comrie would have scored 20+....and he showed leadership, the kids on the ice with him seemed to listen to him, and he can drop the gloves when needed. that's why i think he should be re-signed, he still has value for a young team. Cogs will more likely be gone, Omark isn't a lock to play here next year, so there is a spot for Mike.
ReplyDeletekris:
ReplyDeleteMy lineups are always based on 12 players having roles that they can be successful in, as opposed to looking out for what's best for a particular player (Shawn Horcoff) . I always wanted Horcoff cleaning the stables with Pisani and Moreau but if rolling a tradition 3rd line means bringing in a couple Mike Johnson's I would rather pass.
As of today I have Horcoff on a line with MPS and Hemsky with all 4 lines sharing some defensive responsibilities. If the kids get burned so be it but one thing that's not going to happen is the kids losing confidence because they were pushed down the depth chart to "protect them".
Andrew Cogliano didn't stall his development. The Edmonton Oilers did. Bringing in a couple Moore's is sure to create a few more victims.
MPS - Horcoff - Hemsky
Penner - Brule - Eberle
Hall - Gagner - Cogliano
Jones - Fraser - Stortini
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteI respect you.
Andrew Cogliano didn't stall his development. The Edmonton Oilers did. Bringing in a couple Moore's is sure to create a few more victims.
You're just making stuff up. Short of some unsubstantiated pop-psychology, or some anecdotes about what some random player may have said in the past, what evidence do you have that either of these claims is true? Normally, people make the opposite unsubstantiated claim: that playing rookies against tough opposition is bad for their confidence.
Where's the evidence that you're right?
My lineups are always based on 12 players having roles that they can be successful in, as opposed to looking out for what's best for a particular player (Shawn Horcoff)
This is an obvious straw man. No one here wanted to mold the whole lineup to protect Horcoff. For instance, the claim I just made is that Horcoff, Penner, and Hemsky are the only players in the lineup who can be reliably counted on to play tough minutes, so you try to build two tough minutes lines around them. This means playing Horcoff with one of Hemsky or Penner. Your ideal, current lineup agrees.
Remember, you need two lines that can play tough-ish minutes. Your first line might cut it. But your lines two and three are going to struggle all year. And remember, injuries are going to hit, leaving holes all over the place.
Penner-Brule-Eberle
Against 2nd toughs? Eberle? (Maybe in NHL2010.) Penner can't carry those two guys. And Brule has had more success at wing, no?
Why not Penner-Gagner-Brule for 2nd toughs? A little better.
I always wanted Horcoff cleaning the stables with Pisani and Moreau
Could've been a good idea in 05-06. Though Horcoff was busy beating the league's best centers during the playoffs that year.
Pisani and Moreau have never been the same players at all since. (Pisani has shown glimpses) Horcoff with two gimps against tough competition doesn't help the team. Playing Horcoff with Penner and Hemsky against tough comp. instead is not protecting Horcoff for the sake of protecting Horcoff so much as it is not icing a stupid lineup. (It would be like throwing Jones-Brodziak-Hemsky against the toughs. In a word: dumb.)
if rolling a tradition 3rd line means bringing in a couple Mike Johnson's I would rather pass.
Why?
You wanted Horcoff to play with two reliable, if not great veterans like Pisani and Moreau against tough comp. But you don't want to sign reliable and tough veterans to play with Horcoff.
Got it.
...is better than last year. A lot better.
ReplyDeleteYou're thinking Hall and Eberle will put up some big rookie numbers? Otherwise it's the same lot we've had for the last couple of seasons.
We can hope all we want that the rooks will put up some numbers but I don't think it should be expected of them. They'll need time to adjust like everyone else.
LMHF, rookies don't tend to enter the league and do great on the PP.
ReplyDeleteSome can come in and put up decent counting numbers, but it's usually at the expense of a lot of ice time.
Biggest thing we've lost is a point presence. Gilbert is decent, but he's not Visnovsky and Souray (despite his other flaws) is good on the PP.
Traktor, you can dictate your game plan when you are the superior team. You can't do it as much when the other team is better than you in most aspects of the game.
ReplyDeleteAs for your football analogy, why do teams even run the ball at all? Why not just huck it down the field all the time?
"Could've been a good idea in 05-06. Though Horcoff was busy beating the league's best centers during the playoffs that year."
ReplyDeleteThat was the same year Jonathan Cheechoo scored 56 goals and 93 points. Maybe we should sign Cheechoo.
"You wanted Horcoff to play with two reliable, if not great veterans like Pisani and Moreau against tough comp. But you don't want to sign reliable and tough veterans to play with Horcoff."
If we have a roster full of 6's and 7's I would use them accordingly. Would I purposely go out and sign fodder? Probably not. I'll take my chances with "what's in the box" over vanilla useful.
Basically you think I've flopped arguments because I would prefer to MPS and Eberle in the lineup over Pisani and Moreau. You need to look harder if you're looking for cracks.
"Penner-Brule-Eberle
Against 2nd toughs? Eberle? (Maybe in NHL2010.) Penner can't carry those two guys. And Brule has had more success at wing, no?
I said I would like all 4 lines and share responsibility. If Eberle gets caught against "2nd toughs" so be it. That would mean Hall, Gagner and Cogliano would see some easier minutes.
Ideally I would like to see all players take a turn with the shovel and everyone have a chance to get some minutes they could produce offensively in.
Don't really care about W's and L's at this point. It's more about development and I don't playing with shit against shit is better for Eberle's development than playing with players against players.
"For instance, the claim I just made is that Horcoff, Penner, and Hemsky are the only players in the lineup who can be reliably counted on to play tough minutes, so you try to build two tough minutes lines around them. "
Yeah, you said that Horcoff can saw off the Sedin's when the evidence shows otherwise. I think DSF posted the numbers when Horcoff was against the Sedin's this year and I believe something crazy like -3 per 60.
Horcoff never shutdown anyone but Stoll, Reasoner and Peca have.
I believe Ducey posted the evidence here just a couple days ago but not 1 person replied.
DB - Didn't Mr Kane, Mr Stamkos and Mr Tavares do alright? We should be working with at least one of those.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing Eberle's game translates better than most are. It's a bit of a risky call but I'm making it.
Agreed on weaker point. Gilbert should step up this year too though.
Ribs - I believe they'll do well. Also a full season of Hemsky and Penner 2.0 should work wonders.
Basically you think I've flopped arguments because I would prefer to MPS and Eberle in the lineup over Pisani and Moreau. You need to look harder if you're looking for cracks.
ReplyDeleteI said 05-06 Pisani and Moreau would be better against tough competition. Injuries killed them.
I also said a lot of cheap-ish veterans are likely to be better against tough comp. than the kids.
Kids, even highly touted kids, are likely to fail badly against tough opp.
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Is your argument that since Horcoff can't do well against the league's best when playing with piss poor wingers, like POS and Nilsson, therefore he isn't good against tough opposition?
If so, that's the end of reasonable conversation.
That was the same year Jonathan Cheechoo scored 56 goals and 93 points. Maybe we should sign Cheechoo.
This kind of argument is why we respect you so much Traktor.
Horcoff has seen success over multiple seasons. Last year saw a dip, partly explained by injury, partly explained by terrible teammates.
That's the difference w/Cheechoo. Cheechoo had high counting numbers, which are more deceiving in small sample sizes, e.g high SH%, lots of PP time on a good PP unit, zonestart, etc., etc.
When you look at the context and a large sample size, Horcoff's value shines through. Not so much with Cheechoo, whose counting numbers turned out to be inflated.
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If we have a roster full of 6's and 7's I would use them accordingly. Would I purposely go out and sign fodder? Probably not. I'll take my chances with "what's in the box" over vanilla useful.
Basically you think I've flopped arguments because I would prefer to MPS and Eberle in the lineup over Pisani and Moreau. You need to look harder if you're looking for cracks.
Most of this is hard to follow because you've substituted cute sounding phrases like "vanilla useful" for argument, evidence, and clear thinking.
If you're goal is to play the rookies and lose, if they play at an expected level, that's fine. I said as much.
If you're goal is to not suck, you should sign good players (unsure what you mean by "6's and 7's") and play them against tough opposition. If you do that, there's still plenty of minutes for the kids, especially when injuries hit.
The advantage of this strategy is that if the kids are really great right out of the gate -and that is less probable- is that you've got a deep lineup to play behind and with them.
The "disadvantages" of this strategy that you pointed to, still seem wholly unsubstantiated BS pop psychology. You haven't addressed this yet. (No disrespect for you, just think your position is ungrounded in any evidence whatsoever and you asserted it like it was)
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Do you think Moore and other guys still on the FA market are not decent top 9 options? If so, I think you're too impressed with boxcars and not PK'ing, faceoffs, etc.
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ReplyDelete"Is your argument that since Horcoff can't do well against the league's best when playing with piss poor wingers, like POS and Nilsson, therefore he isn't good against tough opposition?"
ReplyDeleteThe funny thing is those who believe in Corsi were telling me that O'Sullivan was such quality but was just unlucky. Now he's the reason for Horcoff's struggles. I was the guy telling us how shit this guy was from the beginning of the season and how a smart GM would deal him before his value was zero. "But his underliers say he's quality!!"
Horcoff's success like Brule's and Cogliano's depends on who he plays with. People around here would be calling Steven Reinprecht a top 15-20 center if he played with Hemsky, Smyth and Penner for the majority of his career.
"This kind of argument is why we respect you so much Traktor."
Well you're acting like 2006 is somehow relevant. That was 4 years and 4 shoulder injuries ago. When someone is talking about what Horcoff did in 2006 it's a clear sign that they're desperate.
"Most of this is hard to follow because you've substituted cute sounding phrases like "vanilla useful" for argument, evidence, and clear thinking."
I think the message was clear.
I'll put Moreau(6), Horcoff and Pisani(7) is roles that I feel they could be successful in terms of helping the hockey club but that doesn't mean that I want those players on my roster.
Signing Moore and another veteran to play with Horcoff would spell the end of Cogliano or Burle and put Eberle or MPS in the minors. I can understand the argument in putting one of the kids in the AHL but I'm definitely against moving Cogs to make room for Mike Johnson.
"If you're goal is to play the rookies and lose, if they play at an expected level, that's fine. I said as much."
I don't think anyone expects this team to win. Where the argument takes life is when discussing what's best for a players development.
Some feel sheltering a prospect is playing with fodder against fodder. On the other hand I feel sheltering is surrounding your kids with your best players.
The only thing you never want is a young player to be the best player on his line. That's setting the player up to fail. That's what Edmonton did when Andrew Cogliano played with Moreau and a revolving door of shit that past 2 years.
Sure enough when he gets to play with Penner at the end of the season he goes 14 points in his last 18 games. Looked like a totally different player and even made Zetterberg look stupid in one of the final games of the year picking up 1g,1a in the process.
"Do you think Moore and other guys still on the FA market are not decent top 9 options?"
Moore fetched a 2nd round pick at the deadline the last two seasons so he is obviously a decent top 9 option. Signing him to trade him at the deadline is about the only way I could get behind bringing him in.
Oilers re-sign Brule for 2 years as per their twitter.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing 2.0M - 2.2M per.
I'm going to guess a cap hit of 1.85 or less.
ReplyDeleteJust like the Price is Right!
ReplyDeleteI bid... 1.75M/yr.
I'll say 2.125M.
ReplyDeleteHey, they have Pouliots contract up at capgeek ...
AHL Salary $105,000
NHL Salary $550,000
TSNRyanRishaug 1.85 1.85 for brule
ReplyDeleteTSN:
ReplyDeleteThe Edmonton Oilers have avoided arbitration with forward Gilbert Brule, signing the 23-year old to a two-year contract worth $1.85 million per season.
Less than Nilsson *quiet applause*.
ReplyDeleteGood deal on Brule. Nicely done.
ReplyDeleteWhat did I win?
ReplyDeletea years supply of turtlewax
ReplyDeleteI think we all win this one....
ReplyDeleteLMHF,
ReplyDeleteI remember you from my HFboards days, I posted under a different pseudonym there.
I think you watch a lot of games from down low, I think near the blue line, no? That changes your perspective a lot. And every Oiler fan should make the effort to watch Hemsky from there, while he's still an Oiler (hopefully that's a long time).
The speed is crazy and underestimated, and Hemsky, much more so when he was younger than now, would dare to make wonderful plays. The way he would come down the wing , cross the blue, and pass through the defender's legs ... just crazy. Everyone in the building knew he was going to do it, including the defender, who was probably doing a scissor leg thing ... and he still did it. I usually didn't work out, but still, beautiful to watch.
See that same play from the 300s and you might be thinking:
"If that Europussy pulls that shit one more time, instead of turning his shoulders and driving deep, I swear on my Father's grave I'll climb the plexiglass and murder him on the ice!"
Along this line, there is a lot of funny stuff re Quenneville in Chicago. It's fresh hell for that poor bastard now that Scotty Bowman is sitting near the top of the building with a microphone. Just imagine that for a moment before reading on ..... Jebus.
I can't find it now, but somewhere on the internet Q tells us that he took off the headphones because of the interference caused by the plate in Bowman's head. Later Bowman, who apparently has no sense of humour at all, categorically denies having a plate in his head.
Any road, I think the Oilers need more good hockey players. Not this crazy alchemy shit that the young fans buy into year after year (as does Oiler mgmt, regrettably). Just good hockey players.
Fuck the sizzle, give me some steak.
Yet another summer of wildly popular moves from Tambellini and Lowe. So it's the same movie ... let's hope this one ends differently. It's about hope, reason left the station two trains ago, and the ghost of Bob Johnson was squished on the track by both of them.
The problem with this team is not some spectacularly convoluted problem concocted by Nice-But-Dim Bob Stauffer or his cohorts. It's lack of good players. Let's all hope for good results, and have the good sense to be real money against them. This is no time for men of reason.
We should just hope, and also keep a track on the creepy prospophiles that pollute the Internet. The first is a suggestion, the latter is a moral obligation.
Yeah, you said that Horcoff can saw off the Sedin's when the evidence shows otherwise. I think DSF posted the numbers when Horcoff was against the Sedin's this year and I believe something crazy like -3 per 60.
ReplyDeleteNice - did he present the numbers from the previous four seasons, or was it just as much cherry picking as we'd expect from that guy? Considering the source, I'm going with the latter.
Horcoff never shutdown anyone but Stoll, Reasoner and Peca have.
Are you serious? If so, that's a dangerous combination of ignorance and stupidity.
Apparently you didn't watch the wipeout job that Horcoff and Smyth did on Thornton from games 3-6 in round two. Stoll and Reasoner have never been (nor will ever be) in Horcoff's league in terms of being able to come out ahead against the toughs, and Peca hasn't been there post-lockout (although he was a damn fine 2nd option in 2006). The guy absolutely carried the mail for a team that was 1 game away from the Stanley Cup, yet he "never shut down anyone"?
Pathetic.
Traktor, the problem is when you play kids with your better players, chances are you are either playing the kids over their heads or you are playing your better players against inferior competition, leaving the rest of your roster to get hammered on.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to bring kids in the right way, there is a plethora of teams who have over the last 10 years. Anaheim, Chicago, Detroit, etc have all done the same thing. Shelter the opposition your rookies face and increase it gradually. That doesn't mean surround them with shit, you sign cheap reliable vets to help out there.
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteMost of that last post has nothing to do with what we were discussing, but, happily, I agree with some of it. Ubfortunately, it's mostly straw men and red herrings, e.g. you accuse me of wanting to move Cogs and bring in a Mike Johnson. (I'd keep Cogs for now, and bring in a veteran C, who could either help with an unlikely playoff push or be traded at the deadline. Remember, injuries hit. So you can keep Cogs and sign a veteran.)
You still didn't ever give evidence for your BS pop-psychology claims about player development.
H-Bomb rightfully destroyed your Horcoff silliness. Once again.