In the Gare Joyce book "Future Greats and Heartbreaks" he explained the way Columbus broke out prospects by category."Top Ten" players are defined as follows: an eighteen year old who should develop into a first line NHL player, maybe an All-Star, definitely someone who can contribute to a winning team.
In 2007, Joyce told us that some seasons don't have 10 "top 10's" (2003 had more than 10) and that the Blue Jackets identified 6 "top 10's" for that summer: Patrick Kane, James van Riemsdyk, Kyle Turris, Sam Gagner, Jakub Voracek and Karl Alzner. A 7th--Alexei Cherepanov--was a Russian kid so was a "net" for the Blue Jackets (and Oilers for that matter).
I'm a fan. Math is my friend and I am a sworn enemy of "saw him good" while being absolutely certain that NHL scouts (as a group) know what they're doing. Here's my 2010 "top ten" list:
- L Taylor Hall: Franchise player. The next Stamkos?
- C Tyler Seguin: Franchise player. The next Toews?
- D Brandon Gormley: The most complete D in the draft.
- C Mikael Granlund: The next Saku Koivu. Smart player.
- D Cam Fowler: Exceptional puck mover.
- C Ryan Johansen: Enormous damage at even-strength.
- R Vladimir Tarasenko: Terrific offensive talent.
If we could but somehow pull Hall and then Connolly...
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy with that Ben, but I think that if the Oil snake another first rounder it is guaranteed a defenseman
ReplyDeleteIt ain't over til the Fat Lady sings.
ReplyDeleteThanks Kate
Go Hawks
I see Hall, Seguin and Fowler with an outside shot at Forbert and Granlund being "top ten" material. I think this years draft has more depth but doesn't have the top 10 power that last years draft had.
ReplyDeleteI'm a fan. Math is my friend and I am a sworn enemy of "saw him good"
ReplyDeleteYou say that but you're a fan of awful players that the math hates.
I'd add Connolly to the list.
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I think Granlund will be better than Koivu. His numbers as an 18 year old blow Saku's out of the water. On the basis of highlight obserations, his offensive instincts on the powerplayer are off the charts.
ISS doesnt have McIlrath in their top 30 in the last ranking. McIlrath at 31. wishfull thinking!!
ReplyDeletePat Quinn on Hall/Seguin
ReplyDeletehttp://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=324121
"I hear rumours that there may even be an opportunity for a swap," said Quinn. "Apparently Boston knows who they want and they'd like to have that first pick, and that could be a possibility. I don't know that for a fact, but I'm just hearing the rumours out there."
Apparently both of these kids are great. I haven't seen (Tyler) Seguin play, but I certainly have seen Taylor Hall play and he's a terrific athlete," Quinn told Landsberg. "I really like him, he continued to grow and get better, and boy, he was some player in the Memorial Cup playoffs. He's won twice now, he knows what winning's about, he'd be a hard guy not to pick but I know our scouts like Seguin as well. They're not telling the coaches right now, so I wish I could tell you, but either one of those boys, apparently would be very good."
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Sounds like they want Seguin.
Not sure why this post is tagged w/ 'McIlrath'.
ReplyDeleteIs McIlrath a better prospect than Plante was?
btw - I like the Plante pick.
Smarmy Boss: I have a few favorites that math suggests are marginal, but for the most part math is my guide.
ReplyDeleteIt isn't all about the boxcars, however.
Deano: I tagged it McIlrath in error. He's in the second group.
ReplyDeleteLT: I'd add Kabanov, if that kid doesn't have issues with his teams and Barry doesn't fold on him he's in the top 10.
ReplyDeleteThat kid has terrific talent, and shitty attitude doesn't put his ceiling down.
Knowing kids we draft are 17, i would roll the dices, they have time to mature.
Would you pick Kabanov if you had the 31st pick? (With Mcylrath already drafted with the 1st round pick)
FPB: No. I'd take him in the third round though.
ReplyDeleteSorry to threadjack, but are Magoo and Fraser reffing the finals this year?
ReplyDeleteSweet fuck they're jobbing the Hawks tonight.
"No. I'd take him in the third round though."
ReplyDeleteSpoken like a true prodigy.
I like the list LT, and love the idea of the Top-10 list. Actually, I loved reading everything in that book and I'll probably do a book report on my site once all the prospects are sorted out this summer.
ReplyDeleteI'm not as high on Johansen and Tarasenko as you are, but everyone's entitled to their opinion. I'd be addding two others onto the list in their place if I'm head scout.
Erik Gudbranson to me is better than both Fowler and Gormley. Better size, a workhorse and has a cannon from the point. Fowler may be more offensively inclined and Gormley's a jack-of-all trades, but neither can impose their size as well as the boy from Ontario.
I've been a fan of Jack Campbell since the U-20s this year. The saw-him-good crowd loves him, the stats point to potential, good size, and he's one competitive fucker. Best goalie prospect to come along since Carey Price. Going to the best team in the CHL will give him the opportunity to play an NHL-style schedule for the next two years, and that's a great thing for improving durability.
LT: I don't think he stays in the draft until then. The Rangers got a 2nd round pick.
ReplyDeleteBy definition a Top Ten list includes ten players, I can't trust the opinion of anyone who believes otherwise.
ReplyDeleteA top prospects list could have 3 or 22, but a top ten list has TEN.
Is it just me?
Go Flyers! (I hate them, but there is nothing better than a Game7)
Bookie:
ReplyDeleteI assume you haven't read the book (sidebar: read the book), but most scouting staffs have their prospects broken down into:
Top 10
First Rounder
Second Rounder
...
ND (No Draft)
Note, ND is usually reserved for people like Cam Abney, but we digress.
how high does Hemsky get us in the 1st rnd? Boston seems like a perfect fit, as their need is for an offensive winger.
ReplyDeleteThe more I think of it, the more I really want this to happen.
Adding Seguin+Hall, plus a lottery pick next season, sets us up for a pennant run by 2015.
Unless the Oilers are convinced 83 wants to extend, then its almost a no brainer IF Boston are interested.
FPB: That's okay. There's a little too much white noise around the guy two go higher imo. Too much Charlie Kerfeld.
ReplyDeleteAnd for those who don't know about Charlie Kerfeld, here's something:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC2y3RmQUdw
I assume you haven't read the book (sidebar: read the book), but most scouting staffs have their prospects broken down into:
ReplyDeleteTop 10
First Rounder
Second Rounder
Dorito - I don't know how to read.
Ok, I got it, its 'jargon'. I can now accept a top ten list with seven names - I don't have to like it though.
LT: I'd take that that 1986 Charlie Kerfield :)
ReplyDeleteI like Conolly there too.
ReplyDeleteHis injury is not the type to re-occur IF he builds up the other core muscles. He obviously didn't do that well enough before he came back.
If he gets that under control he has a reasonable chance to have best career in the whole class.
Also,
Emrick calls a great game. Haven't watched CBC except between periods all series.
More crowd noise in the background on NBC too, adds a lot when you compare the two.
Hawks end the drought.
ReplyDeleteHow do you spell denouement?
ReplyDeleteYes, Chicago!
Best cup winning goal. Ever.
ReplyDeleteToronto being the team with the longest cup drought is a beautiful thing.
ReplyDeletelol. Anticlimactic goal. Only one who was sure was Kane.
ReplyDeleteDubya: It's the most beautiful ones. When you get to surprise your teamates :).
ReplyDeleteExcept for that minor detail of missing the playoffs, it all turned out pretty well:
ReplyDelete-top overall pick. check
-Burke trades away the second overall pick. check
-Toronto has longest cup drought. check
-Pronger does not win another cup. check
FINALLY I can say what I was dying to say at any time last season... the Oilers are TIED FOR FIRST AGAIN!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm onside with taking Seguin, but with a caveat to that statement: they need to extract something from Boston by keeping their cards close to their chest if they've determined they want Tyler over Taylor.
ReplyDeleteIf they decide they want Taylor though, just pick him, unless the Bruins offer a gross overpay to swap picks (and I'm talking something like the other Bruin first rounder this year plus the Leaf first rounder next year).
Asset management and such.
HBomb: I doubt the Oilers could sign that trade offer fast enough.
ReplyDeleteDorito: My brother worked the combine and Florida mgmt were gushing over Gudbranson. I think he goes 3rd as well.