The Edmonton Oilers may or may not have had an opportunity to bid on Jaroslav Halak's rights. Sometimes NHL teams target a specific player they want as part of a return package and that's all she wrote. Having said that, a very nice piece of a rebuilding puzzle is off the market today and the price was an extremely reasonable one.
St. Louis gave up a quality NHL prospect in Lars Eller (70gp, 18-39-57 in the AHL, led the Peoria Rivermen in points--2nd scorer trailed by 13) and a tough guy with some skill in Ian Schultz.
The Oilers don't have a quality prospect at forward with one year's AHL experience and they don't have many tough guys with skill. However, in terms of value they could have exceeded this package and a three-way deal (Halak to EDM, Cogs+ to another team, a similar player type to team 3) may have helped conclude the transaction in the Oilers favor.
We don't know that they didn't try, only that they didn't succeed. Steve Tambellini could have done his building project a massive favor today by acquiring Jaroslav Halak. The Oilers would have had 4 goalies, but that isn't really an issue since they can send two down to the minors and no longer would have to wait for either DD or JDD to develop. No more worries about Khabibulin's back, as he could be used in tandem at the NHL level or sent down if one of the kids played well enough in training camp.
I've read and heard a lot of moaning about the Habs dealing a goalie for less than 100 cents on the dollar. Big whoop. They lost Tony Esposito for nothing and dealt Rogie Vachon for less than full price because that's the value the Hockey Gods dealt them when Kenny Dryden emerged as a star (in the case of Vachon).
The big item for me is the opportunity missed by Edmonton today. Here's hoping they tried.
Habs lost Tony Esposito, but didn't they also give away Canada Cup winner Vachon?
ReplyDeleteHabs can afford to lose top goalies, because they seem to have the knack for developing and drafting great ones(even if they only seem to last a few seasons recently).
They traded Vachon to the LA Kings; it was a brilliant deal by Pollock, designed to allow LAK to finish in front of Oakland, allowing the Habs to take Guy Lafleur with the Seals' #1 pick.
ReplyDeleteSam Pollock. Fair guy.
I'm not sure how the cap would have worked out if both Halak and Khabibulin would have been on the payroll. I'm guessing Halak will be making more money than Khabibulin in his next contract.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sweating Halak, there is always another goaltender lurking around the corner.
The Oilers made their bed with Khabibulin, may as well hope for the best from him.
Are they absolutely sure it wasn't Halak and a 2nd? j/k
ReplyDeleteThey got the 'sell high' part right, they just missed everything else.
I have to agree with DangerMan.
ReplyDeleteThe OIlers would be looking at having over 8 million tied up in goaltending long term—the talk was Halak signing for around 4.5 million on a long deal no?
Better to wait until the middle of July and sign an experienced veteran on the cheap.
I think it's funny that we can talk about an opportunity missed but then have a posted picture where Halak appears to be letting in an absolutely brutal goal.
ReplyDeleteThe guy's inconsistent and arguably hasn't established his expected level of performance.
St Louis gets the win on the trade, but barely. Montreal doesn't really address a team need by bringing in Eller. They've got skilled forwards coming out of the woodworks. St. Louis gets a goalie who may or may not be a 65 game man, but does so without giving up Perron, Backes, or a 1st this year which arguably is a deeper draft than Eller's (which is turning out to be a real stinker).
Khabibulin is a sunk cost but has nothing to do with a rebuild, so there's not much the Oilers can do about it (except as I mentioned in the post send him down to make room for one of DD or JDD).
ReplyDeleteOilers won't be near the cap this fall, Halak is mid-20's and most certainly a surer bet than anything EDM has currently.
This wasn't a trade sending away elite prospects, and for that price I would hope the Oilers were in the conversation.
LT
ReplyDeleteAgree with you completely. Halak would have been a very good piece to add to our team.
I think the reality is that "Tambi" simply is incapable of making a decision on the fly. On this blog some are starting to give him credit for making decisions on KP and Daum. In the formers case, that decision was an absolute no brainer and in the latter, 95% of the managers in any business would have been capable of making the decision within 3 weeks of the end of the AHL season. The fact that he waited 2 weeks from the end of the contract to tell someone to start to look for a job tells you he is a "ditherer".
He is spending lots of time on small and comparatively less significant decisions (trainer, equipment men, AHL coach) and has shown ZERO willingness to deal with the real issues. His roster
Some here will say....why buy out POS, Rowbare and the Captain when he may be able to trade them. If that is the case, don't you think he knows right now whether he can trade then or not. Because if he does not know what the hell has he been doing since the season ended......forgot there is 2 answers to that: firing Sparky and assesssing the 08/09 roster!. Maybe the NHL sent out a memo that you cannot do anything till the draft.
Apparently St Louis and Montreal did not get that memo.
If we start the year without a 3rd line tough minutes right handed center that can take draws, we move from the conclusion that "Tambi" is a "ditherer" to...... he is bleepin stupid
jon k: Eller's projected as more of a two-way forward. In the one I time saw him play before the draft, all he did was go around and smash people and didn't do anything with the puck. That lack of offence is obviously a bit of an anomaly from seeing his AHL numbers, but I think he fits fairly well with Mtl needs.
ReplyDeleteHockeyMagasinet.com (by Anders Ostberg) Dec 8, 2006:
ReplyDelete"Frölunda has been very skilled at recruiting Danish players to its junior team. ...Last year, it was time for Frölunda to bring in 1989-birthyear Danes Lars Eller and Mikkel Bödker. ... It was Mikkel who was Frölunda's number one priority for the club from Gothenburg, because he was seen as Denmark's most talented 1989-born player. ...During Eller and Bödker's first season, there was no reason to question whether Bödker was the better of the two of them. He got more ice time on Frölunda's J20 team and was certainly the more successful due to his supreme skating.
This year, there's been a change, when Lars took a huge step in his development. He is probably the player who is closest to being ready for the Elitserien club out of Frölunda's J20 players and he's dominating game after game.
Last year, Eller gave the impression that he was a weak pup, but he's matured physically and his body has grown. Certainly there's room for him to grow further, but you can easily him adding additional size.
He's fundamentally a very skilled player and has a tremendous upside. He's a good skater, fantastic stickhandler, has soft hands, is unpredictable (to defenses) and has amazing ice vision. He often gains the offensive blueline with ease and displays fine stickhandling and top-notch dekes. At the same time, he can turn on a dime and fire incredibly beautiful passes laterally or diagonally.
Eller is good both at directing a powerplay as a playmaker or playing as a finisher. He can make slick passes and has a very hard slapshot. He's actually blessed with both a sharp, accurate wrist shot and a hard slapper and is a very effective finisher when he's near the net.
Defensively, he's very reliable and consistent. Eller can be called a two-way center, although he's not quite the equal of teammate Joakim Andersson. Eller kills penalties well, works hard and is becoming an accomplished faceoff man. His greatest attribute is his ice vision. Combined with his other skills, he has sky-high potential. Often, he leaves you saying "Wow" after you watch some of the things he can do on the ice.
-----
I've never heard Eller described as a smasher before but he is a two-way skilled forward. When I think of Montreal's needs I think of David Backes or Colby Armstrong. Eller doesn't come to mind.
Don't get me wrong, I like him as a prospect just fine. I'd still argue that Eller's skillset is pretty well duplicated throughout Montreal's lineup.
Jon K: Yeah, might want to read an article of JW. Halak had an average save % of ,920 from game to game, and ,924 for season.
ReplyDeleteHe's been one of the most consistent netminders. What you just said was bullshit. Price was way more off his save%. (On the average of games save%)
Can we Bury Khabibulin's contract in the minors? Meaning of he is sent to the minors, does his contract still count to the cap?
ReplyDeleten this blog some are starting to give him credit for making decisions on KP and Daum. In the formers case, that decision was an absolute no brainer and in the latter, 95% of the managers in any business would have been capable of making the decision within 3 weeks of the end of the AHL season.
ReplyDeleteSeeing as the sacking of Daum is coinciding with the announcement of the new AGM in charge of OKC, I'd say the evidence shows that Tambellini left the decision on Daum to the new AGM.
When exactly did the Oilers, a team that always had superior goaltending lose it, and end up with the circus we've had since before 2005-06?
ReplyDeleteWoodguy
ReplyDeleteThat might make sense but didn't Tambi also expressly say he has the final say on the top draft pick but you say not on the AHL coach......don't think so
fpv: I said the guy is inconsistent and hasn't established an expected level of performance yet. I fail to see how what you're saying makes my statements incorrect. The most games he's played in a pro season is 45. He will put up two or three great games and then put up an absolute stinker. His save percentage (as the mean) will be good on that basis, but he's still inconsistent. Speaking statistically, I would argue (without looking at the sample mind you) that his save percentage so far has not been reliable, but is still clustered around 0.920 as the sample size increases.
ReplyDeleteThat's why there's been so much controversy over whether to keep him or Price. If he was consistent/reliable around 0.924 every night he wouldn't have spent the season platooning with Price and he wouldn't be the guy packing his bags right now.
As an aside, I'd read some of the things you throw out here before you accuse someone else of spewing "bullshit" for having an opinion about a topic.
LT: I wish the Oilers would have been interested in Halak, but didn't Tambellini say at the season ender that Khabibulin was the team MVP before getting hurt?
ReplyDeleteSeem to think that his feeling was that the answer is to get him healthy and then trade one of DD/JDD. Now maybe that's for the public and he doesn't believe it in private but I doubt this was even considered.
It would have been nice to find a way to get him though.
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ReplyDeleteCan he play defence?
ReplyDeletedevan dubnyk had a.923 save % in 8 straight games. Not many have done that. Price has not done that.
ReplyDeleteSo if no khabibulin, then maybe Halak. but who would have been in his place last year.
If I was the GM of the Oilers we would have already had Halak from when I signed him to an offersheet in 2008.
ReplyDeleteWe probably would already be cup contenders. With a 1st line center. And no Moreau.
Oh well.
What kind of glue are you sniffing, LT? We're set in goal damnit! Set¡!
ReplyDeleteTOJ,
ReplyDeleteNot that he "doesn't have the final say", but rather he delegated that decision to the new AGM.
If Tambellini didn't want Daum he probably would have been let go earlier.
Giving that decision to the guy who will be in charge of OKC is the correct move. Why hire him if you are not going to let him make those decisions?
If Tambellini is guilty of anything its dragging his ass on getting the AGM hired.
Hubub is that Tambellini wanted him to live in OKC, but Bonner didn't want to. Perhaps that is what made the process take so much time.
The Evaluator had to evaluate.
Wood Guy
ReplyDeleteThing I don't get is that Tambi knew he was gonna whack KP and then lollygags to hire a replacement AGM. He should have had a short list ready, contacted everyone not still involved in playoffs and interviewed candidates on an ongoing basis.
The man simply dithers!!!
I really disagree with the premise of this blog. I thought we were in the early stages of a rebuild? The last thing we need is an rfa goalie 2 years from ufa.
ReplyDeleteThe earliest that we should be looking at a goalie is next summer. If Khabbi and DD fail, then we get a top draft pick. If one of them excels, then we didn't need Halak.
I would hate to waste assets / cap space acquiring a guy who is probably gone in two years.
I admire the sell high strategy, but not the return.
ReplyDeleteI guess this one can't be fully evaluated until Halak is signed. If he's asking for the moon and everybody was aware of it then ok, but if he signs for something like 3M for 4 years then yah, opportunity missed.
Surprised this one couldn't wait until around the draft.
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ReplyDeletetraktor said
ReplyDeleteI'm going to guess that St Louis locks him in for 5+ years at around 4.5-5.5 per.
Is that what we want? A player coming off one decent year who we want to sign to a long term 5 mill contract. That is eerily similar to Horcoff.
Maybe it works out for them like hHemsky did for us. Maybe he is the next Huet.
I would hate to waste assets / cap space acquiring a guy who is probably gone in two years.
ReplyDeleteDepends. What if the Oilers offer long term and he takes it?
It looks like a cap dump by the Habs. We have no size to give up.
The smaller talented fellers are far too bountiful to be useful on the trade market.
And one presumes Souray wasn't going to get the deal done.
I too wouldn't mind another year of extreme suck.
TOJ,
ReplyDeleteIts funny, my biggest complaint about Lowe is that we didn't think things through often and made decision based on emotion rather than sound information, rational thinking and a plan.
Now we all (myself included) roast Tambellini for taking too much time to think and having not showing any fire in the belly.
Deciding whether or not Tambellini has a plan will come some time in early July.
I find it immensely interesting that Bucky and Fleming have been extended or let go yet and their contracts are up June 30th.
That infers that Quinn is on the way out.
Glimmers of hope.
Jon K: An opinion? You just stated it as a fact, while math prooves the opposite. ''I think'' would be more suited.
ReplyDeleteAnd Carey Price is way way further into the inconsistency land than Halak.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: I think it's a lot of fun roasting Prince Hamlet personally. Sure beats the product he's put on the ice. Both are tragedies.
ReplyDeleteNo, wait a minute, he only became the GM in the middle of last season. Can't put the blame on him for anything prior to that.
That's not slim, Woodguy, that's friggin anorexic.
ReplyDeleteIf I was the GM of the Oilers... We probably would already be cup contenders. With a 1st line center.
ReplyDeleteAwesome.
Prince Hamlet the 3rd - "I'm really in charge now, honest"
ReplyDeleteSlim is better than none.
To be fair with Traktor, it's hard to imagine someone fuck up more than this.
ReplyDeleteCan he play defence?
ReplyDeleteHa!
Fool me once,shame on you,fool me twice...we won't get fooled again.
"Oilers won't be near the cap this fall, Halak is mid-20's and most certainly a surer bet than anything EDM has currently."
ReplyDeleteOilers will be closer than you think. If Halak gets 4.5 mil and Dubnyk is resigned for less than a mil, thats 3.5 mil difference, and thats whereabouts I see the Oilers hanging out at. So if they had gotten Halak, they would have been nuts tight to the cap.
Getting another org. players is like buying someone else's computer. There might be some stuff you like on there, and there is going to be some stuff that you don't like, and having to reprogram it can be a bitch sometimes.
I like Halak, he's a good goaltender, but picking him up now, is kind of going against the current of what the Oilers are trying to do right now. The Oilers want cap flexibility and players to grow into roles, and then you can start filling the holes.
Quinn at least is entertaining. Every little bit helps during The Great Suckage.
ReplyDeleteDangerman: A good young netminder is never a luxury to have.
ReplyDeleteTough i suspect you would have had to give up something like Eberle or Paajarvi.
No way Cogliano or any other circus clowns could get Halak out of there.
So LT, you figure you are from the "build from the net out school" or is it simply a matter of a good player being available?
ReplyDeleteIf it's the latter I'd probably agree with those here who suggest it's the right guy at the wrong time. We'd be looking at Nash or Lander and maybe VDV right? Too many holes on this team to be trading away any future, even if they only have 2nd or 3rd line upside.
Khabibulin would have to be trade-able for a Halak deal to make any sense to me and that's possibly the most untradeable contract in the league.
ReplyDeleteLT I agree that Halak will be able to command $4.5-$5.5 million but he wants something else, to be a number one and with Khabi in net that isn`t assured so getting more than a one year would be harder.
ReplyDeleteWhile the price in terms of assets wasn`t high, this wasn`t the player for Tambo to go hunting for.
Stick with the goaltending we have and pick up a tweener vet as an insurance policy and provide some stability in OK.
fpv: Hawerchuk's math seems to suggest the two 'tenders are pretty much sawoffs. You should go tell him that he's spewing bullshit.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/6/17/1523680/on-montreal-trading-halak
If you interpret as a fact everything on this site that doesn't include "I think" then I can't help you.
LT, if you really think that you need to add some young but experienced goaltending how about a within-division trade with the Wild for J.Harding?
ReplyDeleteApparently they were trying to get Lars Eller from StL for Harding but were rebuffed - because the Halak deal was happening.
I have to believe that there is reason to think the comparison is close (save that Halak is hot and Harding is most certainly cold) but if you want to make gains you don't buy at the top of the market.
Harding is 26 years old and his GAA and SV% over the last three seasons (2.49 and .921) are better than the 25 year old Halak's (2.80 and .914).
Is Halak the real deal that has just revealed his potential or did he catch lightning in a bottle? I loved him at the Olympics but I'm not sure you should judge him on his last half season of work.
Ed: I'm of the mind that a team should gather as many useful players as possible (the Bill Torrey theory).
ReplyDeleteHalak is a useable player sold at a value price. Oilers need more of them.
Many more.
LT
ReplyDeleteYes, but you have to give up useful players to get him, and he would render the three current goalies even less useful than they already are (in terms of trade value) because the rest of the leagues knows that two will have to be dumped. And in a year Halak will take up $3-4 million of useful cap space.
I'm glad they sat this one out.
LT: The opportunity was missed last offseason when you called for Halak to be acquired.. this is just the follow through,..
ReplyDeletehaha.. the long term deal would be cheaper too, if the oil had acquired him instead of bulin, cus he wouldnt have had the playoff run spotlight...
Halak is a useable player sold at a value price. Oilers need more of them.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, but his contract wouldn't come at a value price and in a cap world, not Torrey's, we can't afford to keep gathering as many of those as possible.
Jon K: Sawoffs. Yeah i guess what all happened is just luck. In fact Price's aura made us win from the bench.
ReplyDeleteHalak is a useable player sold at a value price. Oilers need more of them.
ReplyDelete"Agreed, but his contract wouldn't come at a value price and in a cap world, not Torrey's, we can't afford to keep gathering as many of those as possible."
This is bang on.
LT, I have to disagree with you also. Halak is a guy who is going to be over paid based on a high profile, hot % run in the playoffs. We need less of these, not more. It is much more probable that this player will regress to the mean and be an above average to average goalie.
I also think that this is (another) great indicator of the goaltending market in the NHL. We have continually seen a very poor market. Even for a guy with a high perceived value like Halak. If anyone thinks that the Oilers are going to get a player back for JDD or DD, look at this deal.
With the goalie market being what it is, the Habs penchant for making goalies look good then shipping them out, the all time value of Halak being at the peak with Price at the base, and the potential and position of the development curve of Eller and the toss in of a riskier Schultz, I'm going to give the Halak trade a pass.
ReplyDeleteNot a spectacular one, but it's still a pass. Eller could be a gooder, and Schultze could be Lappy's running mate in a few seasons. This exemplifies AsiaOil and others' statements as to the low value market for goalies and highlights the gaffe made on the Khabby contract.
Also a mid-first rounder with 2 years of development done right for you already and a decent gritty 3rd round pick is fine return, when you consider that Halak would have fetched, if you were very lucky, a 2nd rounder at most before the Olympic break and beyond.
ReplyDeleteHighlander, I'm less convinced of Harding. I think a lot of his numbers can be attributed to the Jacques Lemaire effect. Just my 2 cents.
ReplyDeleteThey traded Vachon to the LA Kings; it was a brilliant deal by Pollock, designed to allow LAK to finish in front of Oakland, allowing the Habs to take Guy Lafleur with the Seals' #1 pick.
ReplyDeleteSam Pollock. Fair guy.
Well, the Kings got Dionne (#2 overall) in the end, and there are a few people who've made the case since then that he should have gone #1 but wouldn't have fit with the Habs roster at the time, so I guess it worked out, kind of, in a weird sort of way.
I'm in the camp that believes chasing another ufa goalie is the wrong step for a club in rebuild build.
ReplyDeleteBUT, if they're going to do it, I'd root for them signing Dan Ellis over Halak. Vokoun, Mason, Ellis, Renne. Nashville has shown some skill developing tenders. I think Montreal's concerns about Halak being able to carry the load over a full season have some merit. He is an undersized goalie by today's standards.
Rebuild build? Make that rebuild mode... ;)
ReplyDeleteAnd Carey Price is way way further into the inconsistency land than Halak.
ReplyDeleteNo question. He's also much younger. As a consequence of both things, he will come much cheaper. This is a relevant concern, given the contracts Montreal has on the books (OMG Gomez) and will have on the books (Plekanec?).
In fact Price's aura made us win from the bench.
If his aura can make the team convert their PPs at 4% from the net and 47% from the bench, then that explanation is as logical as anything else. Yes, I realize that's only for December, but it's demonstrative of the larger point that the Habs didn't help Price at all for most of the season.
Also, if you have a couple of hours, I'd suggest checking out Chris Boyle's detailed breakdowns of the goalies by month -- here's December, since I was in the neighbourhood. It paints an interesting picture, to be sure.
Price makes me think of a younger Marc-André Fleury. Great athletics and pure talent, but sometimes the over agressiveness burns him in his lateral moves around the net. He often gets caught going the wrong way.
ReplyDeleteBut that being said, we'll have to live with it. Already at last chance texaco Mr. Gauthier.
(They made surveys among the fan and 80% would have traded Price instead, and 60% don't trust Price will do the job, sure they're not all einstein, but it says something about the general state)
We lost our Ryan Smyth D=
Eller's not exactly small change. The comp I keep hearing is Mikko Koivu. I liked what (little) I've seen of Schultz also.
ReplyDeleteStill, it's a mighty big risk from Montreal perspective to hang with Price. This is the second time Montreal has traded away a legit stopper to make way for Price: he needs to make good this time. I'm still not convinced he's not the next coming of Jamie Storr.
Btw, Marcel Dionne was a second overall pick of Detroit in 1971. He was poached by LA as a ~RFA in '75 (Jack Kent Cooke signed him and essentially forced a trade).
@spOILer, re: Khabibulin's untradeable contract. Do you think there'd be any interest in Philly? After all, he's got a ring! More to the point, Michael Leighton doesn't, and he doesn't have a contract either. A duo of Khabi-Boucher would cost <$5 MM, and provide a clear hierarchy with a proven #1 and a proven #2. Philly's in position to go for it (obviously) but in the end it was their goaltending that let them down in this latest run. As usual.
I've been driving the Halak bandwagon for a couple of years now.. wish we would have grabbed him. As you said, the rebuild would have been greatly helped with a skilled young netminder like Halak.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, I think we're well covered at forward. The biggest needs for this team are a physical, shutdown defenceman (preferably 2-way, actually) and a young, talented goaltender. We can get by without, but goaltenders are easy enough to come by that we shouldn't have to live with ReKhabi and J4D (Jeff Droins-Deslauriers / Devan Dubnyk).
bulin & dubnyk are the tandem.we don't need halak.jdd is probably gone.dubnyk impressed me with his poise during that 10 game winless stretch to start his career.he was confident he was getting better each game no matter what the result was.he's 2 years younger than jdd & in 2 years he could improve alot & 2 years from now dubnyk should start pushing out bulin.he will be the oilers #1 next year unless injury strikes early then maybe we keep jdd & expose bulin to waivers
ReplyDeleteWe lost our Ryan Smyth D=
ReplyDeleteFuck you. The Habs lost their Dwayne Roloson at best.
They lost their Ryan Smyth last year when Koivu was kicked to the curb.