One of the things we try to do on this blog is use comparables to give us an idea about how the future will roll out for young Oilers. Sam Gagner has been a favorite in this area, since he's the highest draft pick in forever (for another 11 days) and because he turned pro at 18 (that's quite a track record by age 20).
Previous efforts in this regard have given us two solid names from the past: Vincent Damphousse and Doug Gilmour. We've been tracking Vincent for awhile now, and with this season (Gilmour entered the NHL at age 20) we can add the third member of the group. Let's post some numbers.
- (.663) Gilmour 80gp, 25-28-53 +6 on a +1 team
- (.640) Damphousse 75gp, 12-36-48 +2 on a -36 team
- (.603) Gagner 68gp, 15-26-41 -8 on a -56 team
Gagner is behind offensively (looking at the boxcars) but he's still in the range; it is especially interesting when we consider that Gilmour's team scored 293 goals; Damphousse's 259 and Gagner's 214. The "percentage of team goals" that each player was involved in (player points divided by team goals) is much closer: Gilmour 18.1%; Damphousse 18.5%; Gagner 19.1%.
There are other elements to consider (icetime, special team totals/minutes) but we don't have all of the necessary data to delve into those areas, so we're left with the impression that Gagner belongs to the family at the lower range.
Is a small "g" Gilmour a fair comp? He looks closer to being Damphousse's equal, is that an acceptable career? These are never completely fair comparisons, as one argument (Gagner at 20 was in his third year, while Gilmour was in his first) is countered by another (Gilmour clearly didn't get the same PP minutes as Gagner) and yet another (Gagner ranked 2nd on his team in total points, compared to Gilmour's 6th and Damphousse's 7th, implying the comps had more offensive support than Gagner).
I'm satisfied that Sam Gagner is going to be a more complete player than most undersized skill centermen. I think much of his value will be in terms of offense, but it is also true that he is tracking as a useful outscorer even this early on (Rel Corsi 10.9, second best to Edmonton's Babe Ruth, and his GF-GA was 37-43 on what was basically the 1899 Cleveland Spiders).
How good can he be? He's in a very nice neighborhood.
The one thing I'm always amazed at is how little PP time Gagner gets. Rather, how little time he gets on the top unit.
ReplyDeleteIf there's one area he can help a team win, it's on the powerpaly.
He was 5th among Oiler forwards in PPTOI/G (1 second ahead of O'Sullivan) this past year. He was 3rd last year, but MacT was doing some funny things with the extra man all season (not playing Penner, giving Cole a bunch of time, etc.). The only time I can remember him getting significant 1st unit PP time was in his rookie year after Horcoff went down. And despite not having Souray for much of it, the powerplay was on fire over that span.
i expect a somewhat breakout year for Gagner this year, depending on whether his line mates are any good. maybe 60 points? that's not much of a reach.
ReplyDeleteIf they put him with Penner (which they should) and put him on the 1st PP unit (which they should) the kid should blossom.
ReplyDeleteI would love to see them sign Gagner to a longer team (at reasonable dollars) deal this summer. He'll be more expensive next year.
yeah, I'm hoping for a long term deal for Gagner this offseason as well. He's in the range where young players tend to break out. It could be this coming season, or it could be the one to follow, but it's only a matter of time IMO.
ReplyDeleteor Gags with say Eberle or MPS or Hall, either of these guys may be just what he needs to break out?
ReplyDeleteI don't know how realistic it is to expect a rookie to come in and be the straw that stirs the drink and gets other players going.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see Gagner with Penner as well.
ReplyDeletex-x-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-x
x-Horcoff-x
x-x-Stortini
Lots of holes to fill.
Brownlee's latest talks about Pisani.
ReplyDeleteSounds like they've spoken with his agent but haven't committed to anything.
To the extent that the rookie can draw attention in the o-zone, should create some white ice for the rest of his line.
ReplyDeleteNot a pvp line , or stirring the drink, but someone the opp has to play a little tighter than, say, JFJ. That's not too much to ask.
x-x-Hemsky
ReplyDeletePenner-Gagner-x
x-Horcoff-x
x-x-Stortini
You're suggesting that we will or should lose all of Brule, Cogliano, Jacques, Jones, Moreau, Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Potulny, and Pouliot (besides not re-signing any of the UFAs)? I'm thinking you're going to be disappointed.
Get Taylor Hall to play with Gagner and see him break out instantly.
ReplyDeleteSteve-no,no...we're going to have to fit some of the names you've listed onto the roster.
ReplyDeleteUntil Tambo gets the ball rolling over the next couple weeks it's tough to fill in the X's.
I think he's tracking very well. As you pointed out, it's easy to get disillusioned and think he's remained static or even regressed since breaking into the league, when realistically the offense around him has been worse each year since he broke out with the kid line. Furthermore, he's been getting better at playing away from the puck and one would hope he's 'becoming a man' by putting the work in in the weight room. I have faith he'll be an effective 1A center, and while I don't like small centers on my team all that much, I like Gagner alot. It just stung a bit when he didn't turn into Sakic after I watched him in the Canada-Russia series before he joined the team.
ReplyDeleteThe Gilmour comp is interesting, though I don't think we can rely on Sam just magically developing the nasty edge and defensive acumen that Killer had. Also - where did you get your numbers? Hockeydb has Gilmour putting up 25-28-53 in 80 GP for his 21 year old season, which compares alot more favorably (when you ignore the 11 P in 11 GP in the playoffs, harumpf). Damphousse matches up well in game, development, and even draft spot, but if Gagner were 6'1 I'd be alot happier with our situation TBH.
I personally have been kinda putting him side by side with Doug Weight, maybe just due to my familiarity with Douggie as an Oilers fan. He's got the same size, game, strengths and weaknesses minus the big slapper as far as I'm concerned. In his 21 y/o season Weight started the year in the A and broke into the league going 8-22-30 with 23 PIM in 53 games. I'd say they're looking like a good match right now too.
I'll stop critiquing your comps and get to the point though :)
Theres a lot of arrows pointing up for Gagner: Good point totals, good tracking, NHL experience, more and more well-rounded game, an influx of talented kids coming in and the propensity for small forwards to break out between 20 and 23. I say lock him up as long as possible. If the length is good, I'll temper my bitching if the numbers seem a little high.
I like hunters idea myself
ReplyDeleteput comrie or pisani on starboard, put horpensky out as pvp, mps on 4th
or, if you need a spot for eberle then
hall/horc/hemsky,
penner gagner eberle,
maintains a bit of balance
I'm too lazy to pull out a calculator and check, but I'm pretty sure your ppg number for Gilmour is wrong. It should be just over 0.700 by my mental math.
ReplyDeleteIts too bad Sam and Jordan didn't get a chance to play on the same line at the end of the year. I think there could be some chemistry here and I'd be visiting this at training camp, put them with DP27 and see what happens. They seem to "think the game" on the same lines.
ReplyDeleteMustafa: I actually got the boxcars wrong; the ppg is correct.
ReplyDeleteAmong guys w a current career, how about Scott Gomez?
ReplyDelete1st round C, gives back some change from 6' and 200.
Boxcars were good, but he had the good fortune to play on cup squads in NJ instead of [ whatever hunters calling the org today ]
It's good to hear that Gagner is putting up comparable numbers to Damphousse and Gilmour... however I would normally say I don't like comparing players from earlier eras, as its an unfair comparison. However in this case, its one that would NOT work in Gagner's favor, so I'd say that's an especially good sign that Gagner's on pace to be a good player.
ReplyDeleteAnywho, I've never been worried about Gagner. I think the fans here are WAY too critical and crazy in their expectations for him. Just relax people.. yah sure, the Oilers rushed him into the NHL, but there still is a star in there somewhere, and even a 1st line center. It'll take patience from everyone.. fans, coaching, management, teammates, et al. He'll get there.
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ReplyDeletei think gagner is a big part of why the oilers have stunk up the past couple of years, tho it isn't really the kid's fault.
ReplyDeletehe should have been dominating the AHL instead of being placed in a position of way too much responsibility at far too young an age on an unbelievably unbalanced team.
but what's done is done.
maybe one day he becomes a quality first line centre but i think we're still a couple of seasons away from that. with quality wingers, he's currently a solid second line centre - which is a real asset to his team.
so long as the organization doesn't expect any more than that from him in the short term, and finds some other way to address the first line centre situation, i think gagner will continue progressing and contributing.
Dave Gagner's influence here is the difference maker in Sam's continued progression.
ReplyDeleteToo bad we can't have the Canucks' guy consult with all of our prospects.
Maybe we'd finally know what Cogs is.
The org is adrift and rudderless and it shows.
Well, I'm still going to be pissed when he gets a new deal but I like Gagner and think he'll be a player. He was kissed with luck on the PP this year but he seems like the deal.
ReplyDeleteOne thing you don't point out when doing these comps LT: it was easier to put up points when Gilmour and Damphousse played. It's also interesting to look at their progression - it isn't so much linear as they just exploded one year when it all came together for them.
I wonder if the Oilers track some objective indicators about their kids - I'd think that they would. Something must have clicked for Gilmour and Damphousse, whether it's suddenly understanding the game or suddenly being big and strong enough to make a move.
In any event, it happened for those guys at 22 and 23, so Gagner might be a year or two away yet, if he's going to make the leap.
As an aside - I'm not sure why people put so much stock in experience at a given level as opposed to age. When Penner came here, one of the selling points was that he was really a second year NHLer. Those of us who made the point that he was 24 or whatever, and probably through his growth years, don't look too bad I don't think. I'm not sure why we think that, beyond an initial brief period as one adjusts to the speed of the game and such, that there's much to be gained by facing NHL competition, as opposed to getting older and stronger.
Let Gagner attract offer sheets.
ReplyDeleteOilers can stock up on draft picks lmao.
@misfit....if Hall is taken #1 overall, then he damn well better be able to be the straw that stirs the drink! if a high impact rookie makes the team, is it unrealistic to expect some production out of him?
ReplyDeleteI go away for a couple of days and LT's got two hours worth of reading for me to catch up on. Where do you find the time man?
ReplyDeleteI've always preferred the Gilmour comp to Damphousse as I remember Gilmour as being a more complete player. However with the over-emphasis on the Toronto market coverage in my past (and present), it's probably more that I remember Gilmour's game and not Damphousse's. Gagner strikes me as someone who we'll be able to count on in both ends of the ice for the next decade and a half, and not primarily a goal scorer.
@misfit....if Hall is taken #1 overall, then he damn well better be able to be the straw that stirs the drink!
ReplyDeleteTell that to Steven Stamkos, Erik Johnson, Marc-Andre Fleury, Rick Nash, Rick DiPietro, Patrick Stefan, Vincent Lecavalier, Joe Thornton, Chris Philliips, Bryan Berard...
Gagner... Since he's not going to grow any more, I wish he could skate a little faster. But he thinks the game as well as anyone.
ReplyDeleteI think he'll be a very good second-liner. Patrick Sharp good? Smarter, but not necessarily better. But he might be.
MC said...
One thing you don't point out when doing these comps LT: it was easier to put up points when Gilmour and Damphousse played.
Doesn't "percentage of team goals involved in" help to account for this era bias?
If we draft Hall or Seguin and they make the squad, how much 1st unit PP time is Samwise going to get? His face-off prowess doesn't help.
ReplyDeleteSeguin plays the point on the PP.
ReplyDeleteAnd Samwise is still tracking nicely to be Doug Weight V2.0.
Doesn't "percentage of team goals involved in" help to account for this era bias?
ReplyDeleteYes it certainly does. Gilmour's is currently shown as 21.5%, which presumably is based on the since-edited incorrect boxcars. 53/293 is acutally 18.1% of team goals, Damphousse was 18.5 and Gagner 19.1 which shines a slightly brighter light on Sam's 20-y.o. season.
I think this says that Lander isn't coming to EDM this fall:
ReplyDeletehttp://dagbladet.se/sport/1.2102252-lander-tackar-nej-till-edmontons-kontrakt
Oh well, the SEL is as good as anywhere if he's not likely to make the NHL.
ReplyDeleteI think this says that Lander isn't coming to EDM this fall:
ReplyDeletehttp://dagbladet.se/sport/1.2102252-lander-tackar-nej-till-edmontons-kontrakt
I could be wrong, but I am pretty sure it says that Lander, and his evil Japanese sidekick TimråSon is going to attack Edmonton's sphincter until it contracts.
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ReplyDeleteI'll post a translation of that article when I get back from work (about noon Mountain).
ReplyDeleteThe short of it is, there was a three-year deal on the table, but he doesn't want to sign it, because he feels he isn't good enough to compete for an NHL spot yet. Rather stay in Timrå for a year.
Bookie: Timråsonen means [the Timrå son] ("kid").
Engineer
In the CopperNBlue interview with Lander awhile back, Lander himself indicated that he wanted to stay in Sweden another year.
ReplyDeleteIt is better for Lander to stay in Sweden this year if the OIlers want more offense out of him long term.
If it's Hall, I prefer Hall on Gagner's LW than Penner. If it's Seguin, than Penner will do fine there. I think Hall-Gagner-Eberle would work very well as a line.
I think Paajarvi's game fits better with Hemsky than Hall's.
Google translator says:
ReplyDeleteLander decline the Edmonton contract
Magnus Svensson-Pääjärvi chose to sign the contract with Edmonton.
Anton Lander choose to decline the contract offer.
- I'll be ready for me to sign a NHL contract and Edmonton understood my decision, "said Anton Lander.
Related
Third Times revealed in June that Anton Lander will be offered an NHL contract by the Edmonton Oilers.
A club that NHL Timrå Son in the second round of the draft a year ago.
- The following Anton's development closely and are very satisfied with what they have seen. No negotiations have started yet, but they have said they will offer him a contract right now, "said agent Claes Elefalk to the Times then.
Now it is clear that countries choose to decline the contract and today is the last date for transitions from Sweden to the NHL for players with contracts.
Loans not current
- Edmonton understood me so there were no hard feelings. I did not want to sign a NHL contract because I am not good enough, "says Lander.
A complete three-year contract was on the table, ready to be signed.
- It's my dream to sign a NHL contract so it is clear that it was not easy to say no. But then you should feel ready too, "he says.
• What were the Edmonton thinking?
- It was probably both a bit and, much was up to me. The idea was that I could be lent to Timrå or be involved in fighting on the camps.
For Lander, it was never an option to sign an NHL contract and then lent to Timrå.
Fierce competition in Timrå
- No, if so, had I been there and fought for me a place. All the time, it was clear that I should remain in Timrå in one way or another, "he says.
• But the dream of the NHL is left?
- Absolutely. It has probably been even greater.
In his previous kedjekamrat Magnus Svensson-Pääjärvi Timrå leaves in the fall of Edmonton Lander can look forward to another season in the Elite League.
- It will be hard to take a place in Timrå in winter and I'm very happy to stay, "says Lander.
• How do you think the team looks like?
- The team looks interesting and it'll be a really fun season. Now it's hard to say how long the berries when you are out running, but it looks exciting.
It was no less exciting with Anton Lander on the team.
Good that it seems that Lander wants to play in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteTambellini had to offer a contract or lose his rights, and he offered a good 3 year entry level.
I'd bet a fair sum that Lander signs next year and comes over.
@Dug
ReplyDeleteBeing productive is one thing. Being the best player on your line and/or making all of your teammates better is another.
It's the guys like Gagner and Penner who should be helping Hall/Seguin elevate their game and learn the ropes, not the other way around.
So....
ReplyDeleteRe Gagner comps, which was where LT started this, I didn't see anyone biting on Gomez. Just wanted to see if we could find someone a) more current, and b) not Gilmour or Damphousse. Somewhere it boiled down to those two, there must be others worth charting against our man Sam.
Misfit:
ReplyDeleteIt will be..
Lets hope this is Gagners breakout season. Anyone think he gets an A this summer?
ReplyDeleteNo translation coming. There's a Swede that has a partial one up at HFboards, and the one above is ok... ish.
ReplyDeleteLT, Eastside Hockey Manager compares Gagner to Daniel Alfredsson. Alfredsson is similar in size at 5'11, 205 but plays RW. However he plays a two way game and is said to have great hockey smarts, and might be a good comparable with Gagner. However Alfredsson played in the SEL when he was 20, 21 and 22 yo. He was 23 when he won the Calder in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteI sure liked reading what Lander said. Shows maturity, good self-check ability, and a desire to be part of the team when he knows he'll be a net positive to them. They talk about this guy's leadership skills; he just showed everyone how it's done. Can't wait till he's wearing Oiler silks and providing that kind of leadership in the dressing room.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYes. Gagner and Hemsky should be the ones helping the Taylor Halls along but their talent and abilities should in turn help some of the older players boxcars. At least moreso then playing with POS and Nilson.
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