Desjardins' NHLE suggests the best pure goal scorer in this year's entry draft might be Vladimir Tarasenko. When running all of Bob McKenzie's top 30 skaters through the NHL, Tarasenko's goal total (22) trumps all others.
If this were a straight up draft, with no politics, Tarasenko would be in the discussion for #1 overall. Bob McKenzie calls him "Vladimir Krutov in really, really good shape" and his performances in international competition as well as solid numbers in the professional KHL makes him a gem on draft day. Here are Bob McKenzie's top 30 skaters (broken down by F and D) and their Desjardins numbers. These are in 82gp form and we let air out of their tires to make them equivalent to NHL projections. Needless to say the KHL projects as a tougher league than the OHL. One thing is certain: the "Russian factor" is costing Tarasenko several spots in the entry draft.
- Taylor Hall 17-29-46 (BM #1)
- Tyler Seguin 19-22-41 (BM #2)
- Michael Granlund 13-28-41 (BM #13)
- Vladimir Tarasenko 21-18-39 (BM #16)
- Jeff Skinner 19-16-35 (BM #10)
- Jaden Schwartz 12-19-31 (BM #29)
- Tyler Toffoli 14-16-30 (BM #27)
- Brett Connolly 15-14-29 (BM #8)
- Austin Watson 10-16-26 (BM #14)
- Alex Burmistrov 9-17-26 (BM #12)
- Quinton Howden 11-14-25 (BM #26)
- Beau Bennett 8-17-25 (BM #18)
- Ryan Johansen 9-15-24 (BM #6)
- Nino Niederreiter 14-9-23 (BM #7)
- Emerson Etem 13-9-22 (BM #17)
- Nick Bjugstadt 11-11-22 (BM #19)
- John McFarland 8-11-19 (BM #28)
- Charlie Coyle 6-12-18 (BM #32)
- Evgeny Kuznetsov 4-14-18 (BM #24)
- Tyler Pitlick 9-8-17 (BM #25)
- Riley Sheahan 5-10-15 (BM #21)
A couple of points: This is purely an offensive measurement with no consideration for defensive college teams (Sheahan at Notre Dame) or lack of playing time in the KHL (Kuznetsov in Chelyabinsk). Interesting to note the extreme bargains as they appear here, led by Granlund, Tarasenko and Schwartz. Hall has clearance on Seguin, who is right in the same area as Stamkos at the same age (23-19-42 run through Desjardins). They're both outstanding prospects, as are Granlund and Tarasenko.
Defense per 82gp
- Cam Fowler 4-21-25 (BM #5)
- Brandon Gormley 4-14-18 (BM #4)
- Erik Gudbranson 1-13-14 (BM #3)
- Justin Faulk 9-4-13 (BM #30)
- Mark Pysyk 4-8-12 (BM #20)
- Derek Forbort 3-9-12 (BM #11)
- Dylan McIlrath 3-6-9 (BM #15)
- Jonathan Merrill 1-8-9 (BM #22)
- Jarred Tinordi 4-4-8 (BM #23)
There's a lot more to playing defense than posting boxcars, but Fowler looks like the only real puck mover and Gormley performs well (as he does in all areas) by this metric. Gudbranson doesn't project as a helpful defenseman offensively, Justin Faulk is an interesting prospect. Fowler is about where Dmitri Kulikov (5-20-25) was in his draft year, and both trail Drew Doughty (6-23-29) but are in the same conversation. Predicting any of this season's defenders to post Doughty-like progression is beyond the pale.
I don't think we should get too carried away by these things, but if you're looking for the next David Perron names like Granlund, Tarasenko, Schwartz and Toffoli are solid candidates.
It seems like the D men are of lower quality than the last few years. However, they are going 3,4,5 in most drafts.
ReplyDeleteI would probably go with Johansen, Connelly or El Nino at the 3 spot. Seems like better value. The D men are getting a bit of a bump due to the weakness at the top end. There is no Hedmen or Doughty there.
One thing I just started looking at was the percentage of individual points to team goals.
ReplyDeleteSince 1998, Taylor Hall has the 2nd lowest point/team goal % of the highest selected CHL player (only Jordan Staal was worse).
I'm coming up with a bit more data (i.e. factoring Spezza's number as well as Tavares's draft year number, as well as getting a few picks from that draft).
I'll also look at some of the top scorers in the league and see how they fared (providing they were CHL players).
From the start, it looks like Taylor Hall is going to be all by himself if he manages to become an elite NHL player based on this criteria.
2010 Hall 141/417 33.8%
2010 Seguin 116 / 275 42.2%
2009 Tavares 134 / 337 39.8% (year before draft)
2008 Stamkos 116 / 273 42.5%
2007 Kane 176 / 360 48.9%
2006 J Staal 84 / 346 24.3%
2005 Crosby 199 / 405 49.1%
2004 Ladd 82 / 234 35%
2003 E Staal 112 / 244 45.9%
2002 Nash 91 / 246 37.0%
2001 Spezza (Too many teams) / Weiss 100 / 328 30.1%
2000 Torres 98 / 228 43.0%
1999 Brendl 180 / 418 43.1%
1998 Lecavalier 156 / 392 39.8%
Interesting stuff dawgbone.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know if Desjardins NHLE includes playoff games? Skinners 1.65 ppg playoff performance could be being discounted by these numbers whereas Hall maintained his excellent production from regular season into the playoffs. Both had impressive playoffs.
Sean: No. Just regular season.
ReplyDeletedawgbone: Does that include all of the games, or did you make an allowance for the games Hall missed? Could be a factor.
ReplyDeleteNot to threadjack, but I thought some people here might be interested in this:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.tennessean.com/predators/2010/06/21/preds-undecided-on-dustin-boyd/
A quote from the article:
“As for defenseman Denis Grebeshkov, Poile said the Predators are unlikely to make him a qualifying offer, which means he will probably become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. Grebeshkov made $3.1 million last season and would have to receive a qualifying offer of at least that amount for next season.”
Any chance the Oilers try to bring him back?
You know what sucks, I've been waiting for a Friday Yuk Yuks spot for 2 months and guess which day it falls on! What time does the first round run till anyway? I figure like 5 to 9ish? means I can catch most of it
ReplyDeleteDawgbone,
ReplyDeleteYou're scaring me.
Does anyone have the ES scoring numbers for Hall and Seguin? Or even better, the % of their team's ES goals that they scored?
I seem to remember that Tyler counted Schremp's ES goals in junior and it showed that his stats were ridiculously padded by a killer Knights PP. I assume someone has done this for Taylor-Tyler, too.
I don't want to go through all the game logs and count if I can help it.
PP
ReplyDeleteHall 57gp, 14-32-46 .807
Seguin 63gp, 13-30-43 .683
PK
Hall 57gp, 4-1-5 .087
Seguin 63gp, 0-0-0
EV
Hall 57gp, 22-33-55 .965
Seguin 63gp, 35-28-63 1.00
They seem EV and EVs, although we don't know about TOI.
That Grebs thing is interesting. NAS didn't get much for #48 overall, turned out to be a ballbuster trade.
ReplyDeleteUpdate: Judge doesn't buy Khabibulin argument so charges stand.
Lowetide, I included all games for that sample, but I'm using just their games in the more detailed one.
ReplyDeleteHall ends up at 141 / 378 (Windsor scored 39 goals in the 11 games Hall missed), so that puts him up to 37.3%.
Seguin ends up at 116 / 255 (Plymouth scored 20 goals in the 5 games Seguin missed), so that puts him to 45.5%
The thing I've noticed so far is that in junior you tend to get these big games out of nowhere... for instance one of the games Seguin missed Plymouth routed Saginaw 8-0. So that obviously helps out Seguin in these numbers (take away 8 goals from the team total, his % goes up). Windsor had 2 games where they scored 6 goals so that impacts Hall favourably.
@Matt.N i disagree about this year being lower quality for defencemen! Gudbranson, Fowler, Gormley, Forbort, Pysyk, McIlrath, Merrell, Tinordi,Justin Faulk, Petrovic, Beukeboom, Stephan Johns and Patrik Nemeth are all in the top 43 players according to Bob McKenzie that's defensive depth in this draft for me, and Bob seems to agree.
ReplyDeleteDug: I think this season has more 2-way and defensive defenseman. More Ellerby's and Karl Alzner's.
ReplyDeleteThanks LT,
ReplyDeleteThat's about what I guessed. The numbers seem to show Seguin a bit better at ES goal scoring.
But then again, it's pretty damn cool that Hall is scoring on the PK too. And without TOI, it's all a bit hazy.
I know the issue has come up, but if I were the Oilers management, I'd push to convert Hall to C.
and that's good, LT, because i don't believe we need to trade up at all to get a good forward or defensive prospect at #31, the draft seems to me to be that deep. man i'm stoked about the #31 pick! (or whatever it turns in to).
ReplyDeleteHey LT: I hate to go back to the Grebs item, but it made me think of one other possibility.
ReplyDeleteWhat if Nashville is preparing to make a play for Kovalchuk?
With the loss of Arnott, Hamhuis, and Grebs, that's $10M in cap space (or at least salary) that's freed up, right around what Kovalchuk's reportedly looking for. The Preds have gone big game hunting before (Forsberg, Kariya), and could perhaps use it to help sell Radulov on the idea of returning.
On the other hand, Poile seems too smart a man to overpay anyone, and that's what Kovalchuk's asking for.
I'm curious to hear what the hockey minds at this blog think.
you know Shaft19, i never looked at it that way! i suppose it's possible that at least a 10 million dollar offer could be on the table in the near future for Ilya?
ReplyDeleteI think Poile is too cagey to give anyone 10MM. And as great as Kovalchuk is, I don't know if he's quite as good as Crosby, Ovechkin, or even Toews.
ReplyDeleteI'd say 8MM max cap hit, and you try to give him one of those long deals that peters out with lower amounts at the end to lower the cap hit.
Turning Hall into a centre is a horribly bad idea.
ReplyDeleteCentres have defensive responsibilities. It is a reactive position.
Hall strengths are his attacking and his recklessness.
Like trying to turn a thoroughbred into a plowhorse.
If Hall is the best player, there is nothing wrong with him being a winger. The way ruin Hall is to not recognize his strengths, and try to fit a square peg into a round hole.
If Hall is the guy, get the centre elsewhere.
Spezza, Spezza, Spezza.....
ReplyDeletei hear Spezza has left the door open for a trade, but not asked for one.
ReplyDeletePoile going after Kovy has about the same chance as Montreal offering Laraque 5M/yr 5 year contract.
ReplyDeleteForsberg was a rental (and even a smart man like Poile used to over pay for rentals) and Kariya wasn't nearly as much as Kovy would be.
I guess even Poile is susceptible to the "win now" as seen with the Forsberg trade.
Dogbone,
Wow.
Haven't seen that anywhere.
Nice work.
ReplyDeleteUpdate: Judge doesn't buy Khabibulin argument so charges stand.
Wow, I was so sure that it was against his constitutional rights to be asked to walk a straight line after swerving all over the road at double the legal limit. Who knew...
Next up, he will claim that his ethnicity made him prone to vodka...
Lock him up - there are other goalies around.
I think this season has more 2-way and defensive defenseman. More Ellerby's and Karl Alzner's.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think are the current trade values are of Alzner and Ellerby? (In player terms)
Curious.
Nashville walking away from Grebs isn't a surprise. Anyone who had a clue about the salary cap knew that he wasn't going to get qualified.
ReplyDeleteTambellini walks away with a 2nd round pick and 3 million in cap space for a dead asset.
Fair enough Godot, you might be right. But, I'm unconvinced by what your reasons.
ReplyDeleteCentres have defensive responsibilities. It is a reactive position.
Seems like the kid is defensively responsible, or at least can be. Why not?
Hall strengths are his attacking and his recklessness.
Maybe. But don't we want him to be slightly less reckless to limit injuries and maybe make him a better bet to play against the vaunt of the NHL.
And he looks like a pretty good playmaker to me too. And anyway, centers can attack, too.
Like trying to turn a thoroughbred into a plowhorse.
Since when are centermen plowhorses?
Woodguy continued: "I bet that either Nashville will resign Grebs or trade him in the offseason for more than a 2nd.
ReplyDeleteFor you I'm willing to bet up to $5000 if we find a suitable 3rd party escrow."
Not trying to single you out here but I feel that some of the hate for Tambellini has been unwarranted.
If you can get Grebs for 2 million to 2.5 million I think he has the potential to be a reasonably good value. At 3 million plus he's obviously overpriced. His agent seemed to want Tom Gilbert money but the defensive aspect just isn't there in his case.
ReplyDeleteI'd sign Grebs for 3MM and said so at the time. It's not a great deal, but Grebs still has some potential. The guy is still young for a dman, can move the puck, and has a gear that he didn't show for part of last season, but there's enough of a chance that it's there that he's worth another contract.
ReplyDeleteI think Poile might've qualified him too. Why else trade the second to get a player who really won't put you over the top in a playoff run? But Poile seems to want maximum cap space to go after bigger game, which is perhaps not an expected development.
So Woodguy made a good bet that didn't turn out. Bad beat as they say.
dawgbone: Great, great post. I am getting as excited about Friday as anyone but I'm honestly surprised to see a new and valuable perspective heading into D-Day.
ReplyDeleteCan we collectively talk more about this? Could Hall be nicked simply because his team was so dominant or did some those other great players also have the kind of supporting cast he did? My first instinct is that Windsor's team goal total being so high could mean his own offense was great but his teammates were also ripping it up when he was off the ice.
PK
ReplyDeleteHall 57gp, 4-1-5 .087
I believe it was posted on Jonathan's site by a commenter that Hall was only used on the PK to exploit very weak teams. Supposedly his role was to cherry-pick and push the D back. Against better teams he was never seen on the PK in this, or any other fashion.
Purely 3rd party anecdotal, but it is just more illustrative that boxcars don't tell the entire story.
I think the only thing holding Mikael Granlund back is his size. Although perhaps there is a Koivu argument in there somewhere..
ReplyDeleteJuicy, juicy stuff today:
ReplyDeleteTencer had Dreger on his show, and Dreger made two interesting points.
1) With regards to the Oilers' coaching staff, Dreger said "good sources tell me there will be change."
2) Dreger says there's been no meaningful discussions between EDM and BOS re: trading 1 & 2, and expects both to pick where they are. (But I suppose things can change in a hurry - especially with just under a week to go.)
Buchy and Flemming are toast, I'm sure... that's part of your coaching change. These guys haven't been renewed yet, and I think they're in that "what the hell is going on??!" limbo that Tambellini likes to leave his players/coaches in before a deadline passes, doing the firing for him.
ReplyDeleteThat Grebs thing is interesting. NAS didn't get much for #48 overall, turned out to be a ballbuster trade.
ReplyDeletefor both the Preds and Grebeshkov!
I think Grebs is in a select situation - RFA with only 1 year left to UFA and he has the right to request arbitration this summer.
ReplyDeleteHe may not have control of the dollars, but he did has control of the term.
Getting a second does not seem so bad. I wonder if Grebs would entertain an offer from the Oil or he's disgruntled too.
It will be interesting to see what he signs for and where.
I'm not feeling this one.
ReplyDeleteSeguin scored 42.2% offense on a team that had 2 players total > 50 points.
Hall scored 33.8% on a team that had 9 players > 50 points
Too lacking in context to be meaningful IMO.
i am convinced Quinn is gone. Tambo said something to the effect "it isn't fair to see how he feels so soon after the season, we will talk later"
ReplyDeletethat sounded real weird considering Quinn was under contract for 2 more years. Why talk about anything if you wanted him back.
Renney will be running the team this fall. He is very good with the young kids and we might have a lot of them.
Danny: The point % IS describing the context. If Hall would be playing for a shiteam he would have a higher point %.
ReplyDeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteI see you deleted my mea culpa post.
Was there content you disproved of?
If so I apologize.
Showerhead,
ReplyDeleteI think nobody knows. There's also the question of whether either prospect got a ridiculous amount of TOI.
Shot totals would help, if someone wants to watch every game Hall and Seguin's teams played and count shots, chances, and do shift charts.
Or just wait for next season.
glove-tap to Oilman. That was awesome.
ReplyDeleteLT: What's Desjardins using as a conversion for the NTDP? It seems like the offensive-minded American blueliners not named Fowler were really hammered down. Reports suggest that Forbort, Merrill and Faulk all have some high end offensive talent.
I wonder whether -and hope and doubt that- the Oilers paid some people to count Hall and Seguins shots, chances, TOI, etc., at least for the last part of the junior season when it was pretty clear they would likely pick first or second. (I don't know how much video they keep of junior games?)
ReplyDeleteEasy to do and would give you a little more information. Maybe Seguin's shooting percentage is ridiculously high. Maybe Hall badly outchanced Seguin, or vice versa.
Woodguy: Nothing wrong with your content, I deleted all posts that discussed the original post (involving old news). The thread has some life and I didn't want to spend an hour sifting through who said what when.
ReplyDeletedorito: USHL conversion.
ReplyDeleteToffoli's numbers look great, but I'd have to ask who is the passenger on that line? I don't think I would want to be the guy taking the lowest rated out of the three.
ReplyDeleteSchwartz' numbers are outstanding too. If he falls to 31, he looks like a guy who can carry that pick or better. Doesn't NHLE technically take size into account, since it's a survey of all players?
As a 16 yo, Jaden trailed only his 2 year older brother in scoring for the Greyhounds. In his first year in Tri-City he lead the entire team in scoring, racking up nearly double the points of his next highest teammate.
If the USHL gets enough credit from Desjardins that his 83 pts in 60 games beats Toffoli's OHL 79 pts in 65, and Toffoli surely got far more support from Seguin that Schwartz ever saw, don't you think Schwartz deserves to be more than two rankings behind Toffoli?
That seems like scout bias to me, much in the same way as not seeing Jerome Gauthier-Leduc ever play at home.
And with 20 goals, JGL must've been damn close for Top 10 NHLE at D.
I like the idea of taking Ross at #31. This team needs an agitator type player. Stortini can fill the gap til Ross is ready...
ReplyDeleteDawgbone,
ReplyDeleteIsn't Geltzlaf the outlier always brought up on the other side of the "team offence" argument?
His points/team goal was 0.283 in his draft year.
It would be interesting to see all CHL players taken in the first round in the last ten years.
Not that I have the ambition to gather that data myself..../lazy
Points as %of team points tells us, umm, what? Buddy at 40% - that's better, right? But the supporting cast is poor so he gets more ice time, so maybe buddy2 at 30% is better, because he pulls the same boxcars with less TOI. Wait, his linemates might be better too... Ah hell, don't these guys play for different teams, different coaches, at different positions? You can boil the oceans trying to unwind it, but luck is a big enough fudge-factor too that it will bury the small effects you're trying to count. Or you can say what the boxcars have averaged out for us- they're just pretty damn close.
ReplyDelete% of team offence, I don't like that one, not until it shows me something helpful. It's that moving-denominator(s) thing.
"Turning Hall into a centre is a horribly bad idea.
ReplyDeleteCentres have defensive responsibilities. It is a reactive position.
Hall strengths are his attacking and his recklessness.
Like trying to turn a thoroughbred into a plowhorse."
The move worked out pretty well for Mark Messier.
Bobby Clarke, Bryan Trottier, Eric Lindros, Peter Forsberg. Nothing wrong with a good old attacking plowhorse once in a while ; )
Getting close...
ReplyDeleteIf Bulin is in serious trouble and won't be able to play (in which case he presumably comes off the cap? Somehow someway? I just can't imagine a situation where the Oilers are on the hook if he's behind bars/unable to play in Canada)...
... is there a deal somewhere that see's Boston unloading Thomas and his fugly contract to Edmonton?
Mirtle's got the 100 top UFA's list up today....nice list if you expect your team to be scouring the lower end of this years crop.
ReplyDeletePisani at #95 looks like a nice veteran pick-up ;)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/the-nhls-top-100-unrestricted-free-agents/article1611942/
I think with a player like Hall, who has played some center, you are pretty well obligated to try him at center if you draft him. I don't think you draft him to play center, but if you are maximizing your players, it is worth seeing if he is another player like Messier who could make the transition and become an even better player at pivot. He isn't the traditional defensive player, but he is good enough offensively that teams would have trouble getting the puck into the offensive zone.
ReplyDelete1) With regards to the Oilers' coaching staff, Dreger said "good sources tell me there will be change."
ReplyDeleteGreat - I like Quinn week one when he was all funny, but I didn't like him when he couldn't figure out which players should be on the ice.
goliano, As with Messier, no rush to try Hall at centre. Ice time on the wing, and when his whole game is NHL level give him some spot duty at centre and go from there.
ReplyDelete1) Messier didn't play centre at all for the first couple of seasons. So if you use the Messier argument, you are still talking about Hall as a left wing for several seasons.
ReplyDelete2) The NHL was far different in the eighties. There was far less structure in the game. Centres could roam and had less structured responsibility than they do today.
3) Hall's strenghs is his ability to get on the opposition and attack instinctively. Play a player to his strenghs. A less structured position (wing) is more suited to his skills than a more structured position (centre). Reckless is not a trait of an NHL centre these day. Centre is the most structured position on the ice.
Why create risk in a sure thing? There is nothing wrong with drafting a winger, if he is the best player.
You deal with the hand you are dealt. The draft dealt us Hall, not Toews. Bowman moved Lafleur to wing and let Lemaire do the checking for him.
Woodguy, based on the hype though, wouldn't you be disappointed ending up with a Ryan Getzlaf with the #1 OV pick?
ReplyDeleteHe's an outlier in many ways, including struggling to average a PPG in his last year of junior.
There's bound to be players here or there who don't fit the profile (I mean Brendl and Torres are pretty obvious ones).
In the end, I don't expect it to show much, but I just found it interesting.
I agree that Hall's development is best served starting him on the wing. But history shows the move can be made, and more importantly, history shows an aggressive, attacking center can be a good thing and that's not just an eighties trend. Toews is pretty aggressive on the forecheck. A center who can cycle and dominate on the boards creates a lot of chances for his wingers. Forsberg was a classic example of that as was Trottier.
ReplyDeleteHall's skating ability affords him some leeway to be aggressive in the offensive zone and get back in time for the defensive aspects of the game.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at Gudbranson's NHLE numbers for the pre-mono set of games, he looks much more similar to Gormley offensively. It's a smaller set, but it works out to 2-15-17. And I think he's a guy who can improve post-draft offensively like a Phaneuf or Weber if he can learn how to utilize his shot and mobility on the PP.
ReplyDelete