A couple of years ago, the Buffalo Sabres moved toward scouting by video and let go several of their scouts. It looks like the Montreal Canadiens could be doing the same thing after their recent purge with possibly more to follow in the land of Hab.
The Oilers have fired two of their scouts this summer (Kevin Prendergast, Chris McCarthy) but don't appear to be headed in the same direction.
I think Oilers fans should be watching this kind of thing closely. We don't want our team to be the fellow in Ballad of a Thin Man ("something is happening here, but you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones") and while I believe scouts are important, video and math also need to be part of the solution.
Vic Ferrari is once again ahead of the curve and gives us a list of teams that might be using some voodoo math to get better answers.
EDIT TO ADD: David Staples has a nice piece up on the Oilers and their direction. Agree or disagree, Staples has always been a friend to this corner of the blogosphere. Hat tip to jesse r for the information.
Based on some of the comments Dave Staples had on his website this weekend from Sean Draper, the Oilers Director of Research, Analysis and Software Development, I'm a bit hopeful that the Oilers are moving in this direction.
ReplyDeleteOr that they've got at least one person at the table who believes in this stuff. Which is a start.
Nothing strange for Vic to be 3 steps ahead of everyone else.
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff.
I bet Winters is using a bootleg version.
oops sorry for the anonymous post...
ReplyDeletebetter than an ominous post I guess.
The article mc did on Ritch Winter strikes me as similar to what Vic wrote about and David Staples has in his article. I wonder if as executives are encouraged more and more to learn from other successful executives (in different fields than their own) they are becoming more aware of the nerd factor in business. That is, the idea math, the internet (collective mind) and other innovative techniques can enhance your business. It seems to be slowly infiltrating to the NHL level (if Staples is to be believed).
ReplyDeleteAI, machine learning, advanced stats with poisson processes, whatever you wanna call it or technique being used its the future. As more and more data becomes available, the harder it is to manage and the more hidden info to be discovered. Good on the Oilers to have a guy like Draper. I didn't know they did this.
ReplyDeleteAlso, on an off note. Is Tambellini on NHL Live right now? He is supposed to be.
something i was asking about in an earlier thread, sort of unrelated to the top post here .. but is it possible to convert an NHL forward to a quality NHL defenseman?
ReplyDeletei know that Dustin Byfuglien was moved from D to F, and that Sergei Federov played defense on occasion, but are there any other examples of F to D transitions?
i'm very curious and thought i'd try tapping the knowledge of the commenters here.
striatic -
ReplyDeleteDespite what some people might say online, I think Steve Staios did alright with the forward to defense transition.
Marc-Andre Bergeron would be an excellent speed forward (that can hit) and pp QB.
ReplyDeleteI always thought Pronger would be an amazing forward.
As for the other way around...I have a harder time understanding why you'd do this other than lack of talent and offensive skill.
Striatic:
ReplyDeleteBrent Burns did it as a 19-year old prospect at the request of the Minnesota Wild.
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Math certainly has its place in the newer scouting regimes, but it can't ask players questions before and after games. It's important to get reliable scouts out to games to assess not just the physical talents of a player but their mental condition. The Oilers have placed a lot of emphasis on drafting "smart" players the last few years, and I don't think we'd be able to draft them if we had a camera in the stands instead of Stu.
Brent Burns was drafted as a forward and switched to defense early in his NHL career.
ReplyDeletestriatic - You have to have some size to play defense (well) in this league and there's just not much to pick from when you look at the Oilers forwards corp. Maybe JF Jacques could give it a go?
ReplyDeleteI have also heard/read that Lidstrom was converted from a forward to a dman, but all the sources I have looked at show him drafted as a dman, so not sure when this happened.
ReplyDeleteNot a permanent conversion, but I'm pretty sure Sami Kapanen played D for at least a few games with the Flyers (due to injuries?). Can't recall how that went, though, or how long it lasted.
ReplyDeleteJason Strudwick¡
ReplyDeleteToby Peterson!
ReplyDeleteI hope we are not the ones who are discussing lepers and crooks
ReplyDeleteI hope we are not the ones who are discussing lepers and crooks
ReplyDeleteCryptic but thought-provoking post. Very deep. And ultimately, aren't we all lepers and crooks?
Aha! Googled it, and got the reference. I retract my mockery; the anonymity made me assume that was a post similar to the random strings of Chinese characters that show up occasionally.
ReplyDeleteMPS was a defenceman until the last few years.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"As for the other way around...I have a harder time understanding why you'd do this other than lack of talent and offensive skill."
ReplyDeletein terms of the current oilers crop, i am wondering if Moreau could transition to playing defense : ]
or possibly Pisani.
ReplyDeletethough i'm as interested in the idea generally, as i am in any specific oilers.
This is old but I found it interesting.
ReplyDeleteDavis will be missed
Sad to see the passing of longtime Oiler scout Lorne Davis, who played briefly in the NHL, including a stint with the Bruins in 1959-60. Davis, 77, succumbed Thursday to a fight with cancer. He was instrumental in touting a number of the Oilers, including Glenn Anderson, who became part of the franchise's dynasty. In '94, the determined Davis stayed up all night to try to convince GM Glen Sather and scouting boss Barry Fraser not to use their No. 4 pick on Jason Bonsignore (Bustsignore), arguing that Ryan Smyth was the better choice. He only convinced them to go with Smyth at No. 6. Bonsignore quickly fizzled, while Smyth turned himself into Mr. Oiler, before being dealt to the Islanders at last February's trade deadline
© Copyright Globe Newspaper Company.
How about drafting talented players, and developing them instead of dumping them in the AHL with moronic coaches(Kelly Buchberger comes to mind), or equally bad, throwing them out unprepared in the NHL where full grown men beat the living tar out of them night after night?
ReplyDeleteHow about if the "management" get a few goons to effing protect these smurfs, instead of arrogantly yapping about "team toughness" as if a 185 pound player can easily stand up for himself against the Boogards? If only Kevin Lowe could have played without Semenko, McSorely, Messier, and all the other myriad Oiler hard cases - I'd love to have seen how tough he would have looked against say, the 1986 version of the Flames.
As for the firing of some scout that never once found a single quality player, good riddance. The other scouts think it's "classless?" LOL
At the end of the day we all are witnessing a talented hockey team(Hawks) beating a less talented team(the Flyers). Since so many posters don't even know what the Oilers with talent look like, here's a clue: Talent usually beats lesser talent.
You can have all the fancy dan systems and programs there are, but in the end talent and basic skill in ice hockey shines like few other sports, sans boxing.
Another reason to draft the best players especially in the early rounds.
The only thing missing from the illustration at the top of this post is the "Dead End" sign that invariably crops up whenever the Oilers take a road to "The Future."
ReplyDeleteI posted a link a few weeks back about Draper's scouting application (Scouting 2.0 I think it's called), you can google and find it, but there was one line in there that wasn't fleshed out all that much, but now seems to make a little more sense it says:
ReplyDelete"Eventually, Mr. Draper would like to see all the players in the Oilers system start using the technology to help refine their game and possibly even see it opened up to allow fans to participate in the scouting process."
I know al the knockers out there will say that the Oilers are just catching up to others, but at least Tambellini is doing what he said he would do. He wanted to overhaul the procurement and developments and change the culture. When he says he wants the Oilers to be "great" in these areas I believe him. Remains to be seen, but steps in the right direction.
Based on the fact that Buffalo drafted a guy like Zack Kassian (Who looks partially retarded in interviews) over a guy like Peter Holland who was very articulated in interviews and spoke well, i still have my reserves about only video. There's thing that can't be seen on tape alone.
ReplyDelete+ Math is OH SO WILD, for European players, it greatly restricts the range of players you can draft, as it doesn't transition well with Swedes, Finns, Ruskies and etc.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGood news, Paajarvi signs
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHoorah!
ReplyDelete@Vic Ferrari:
ReplyDeleteDo you have any preference between Hall/Seguin?
Yay on Magnus, curious to see what he was able to score in bonuses.
ReplyDeleteSo I got my email to come see about season seats this year, and I'm almost 1000 deep in the registry. Some serious turnover in season ticket holders this year.
Vic:
ReplyDeletecan I get you to send me an e-mail at hoc key sympo sium at yahoo dot ca, no spaces or capitalization.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletespeeds:
ReplyDeleteJust sent you an email.
hunter1909:
I don't have an opinion, hunter. I just don't follow junior hockey. The scouts, by and large, seem to do an awfully good job of picking out the best guys. I've read some of the internet commentary on the subject, it doesn't look like they can go too wrong with either guy. The concensus seems to be that both are terrific players whose games should translate well to the NHL. We'll see.
As per Oiler's email:
ReplyDeleteMAGNUS PAAJARVI-SVENSSON SIGNS NHL ENTRY LEVEL CONTRACT
General Manager Steve Tambellini announced today the Edmonton Oilers have signed Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson to a three-year NHL entry level contract.
Paajarvi-Svensson, the Oilers 1st round choice, 10th overall, in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, recently completed his third season with Timra IK of the Swedish Elite League. The 6’2”, 201-pound left-winger from Norrkoping, Sweden, finished third in team scoring with 29 points (12G, 17A) in 49 games.
Does the clock start ticking on MPS's UFA countdown whether he plays in the NHL or not next season?
ReplyDeletethis news is going to make my wife ecstatic!
ReplyDeleteever since Jussi Markkanen left the oilers her enthusiasm has dwindled, since her primary hockey interest is in unique hockey names.
when the oilers first drafted MPS, i ushered her over to the computer and her eyes lit up with the light of a thousand umlauts.
she was a bit upset to hear he was considering dropping the "Svensson" tho.
LF, I believe he has to play in the NHL. But he will (well he better). I can't see how this team couldn't use a WC all-star representative.
ReplyDeleteLittle Fury: Does the clock start ticking on MPS's UFA countdown whether he plays in the NHL or not next season?
ReplyDeleteNope.
Playing in 10 NHL games is enough to eat up the first year of his ELC. Playing in at least 41 NHL games starts his UFA clock.
Louise
Vic Ferrari said...
ReplyDeleteI shudder to think how many teams have benefited from Dennis' scoring chance work.
Vic, you, Sunny, Dennis, MC, RQ et alii are doing fantastic work. Thank you.
I'm not sure about the benefit of the scoring chance work to NHL teams though. There's a stats guy at every NHL game already doing what Dennis is doing.
I'm not sure if non-participants can access the data other than through the Game Summary at NHL.com, but I'm sure a good scout would have at least some idea of the tally for and against while watching future opponents.
tencer's twitter reports an interview with MPS "Paajarvi confirms the Oilers did not promise him a spot in the NHL, and he will play AHL if necessary. He doesn't think he needs to, though."
ReplyDeleteit sounds like he could play his way onto the team during training camp or be sent down to oklahoma city to start the year.
there might be some wisdom in trying to keep his game total under 41, to keep him in sync with the other prospects contract wise, but you also can't afford to sour the player's attitude if he's ready.
Vic -
ReplyDeleteTake free legal advice for what it's worth but I don't ever publish any of that stuff on the net with respect to my own site because of my own concerns about privacy law issues.
As far as it goes, I agree with a lot of what you say, particularly with respect to the Oilers and their usage of the numbers - we're a long way back.
Interesting idea re: Draper and a closed forum. If they've got someone reading now, I'm sort of surprised that he hasn't just taken the next step and emailed some people, although I'm not sure the scope of his position - it may just be collecting data.
Meant to add - he's got a pretty serious background if he's just collecting data - doctorate level statistics guy? Wow. I'm by no means on the level of Vic and Gabe when it comes to the numbers but there's nothing written on the sphere that should be beyond Draper's grasp. Probably nobody listens to him.
ReplyDeleteBloggers like Lowetide, Vic Ferrari and MC79 should probably all be on the Oilers payroll right now.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"Bloggers like Lowetide, Vic Ferrari and MC79 should probably all be on the Oilers payroll right now."
ReplyDeleteIf anyone deserves credit for the Horcoff signing its them.
I am astounded what the statistical analysis guys add to conventional hockey wisdom. In baseball Bill James pioneered the application of statistical analysis and so much of what passes today as conventional wisdom was truly an outlier at the time.
ReplyDeleteThere is no monopoly on who has really good hockey ideas and I suspect we all just want the Oil to be successful.
MC will also know from his legal background that sometimes opponents in court can raise a point of view or argument that you did not think of. Or at least that is what happens on reruns of Perry Mason
I just googled Sean Draper and got his MA thesis up. If I got the right guy, his PhD--though I didn't find anything confirming he got the PhD, only the MA--is in Sport Psychology.
ReplyDeleteSo he likely taught stats to undergrads while in Sports Psychology, which isn't particularly abnormal.
If Lorne Davis was trying to convince the Oil to pick Smyth at 4 and Alfredssen 6th in '94, then I'd really be impressed.
ReplyDeleteConsidering we got Smyth 6th anyway, I still don't know what a brilliant org would have done with that Bonsignore pick. It was a BRUTAl draft.
Wait... so Wade Belak was a first round pick? And EARLY?
ReplyDeleteWTF were they thinking!?
With his signing, MPS immediately becomes the 2nd best LW option for the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers.
ReplyDeleteI'll bet a pint of beer he doesn't ever see the AHL.
No bet.
ReplyDeleteOnly management would bet against you and they would hold him back to spite you.
Thanks for the advice Tyler, I should have thought of that. I deleted my comment.
ReplyDeleteI also would be surprised if the Oilers are listening to him. Hell, for all we know he's gathering more stats so that that the pay per view games can have some groovy new graphics.
I remember long ago on Gregor's radio show, the year after the lockout, he interviewed Jeff Ward and he said they don't look much at +/-, they evaluate their AHL players based on scoring chance +/-. As we've learned from Dennis' stuff, there is some tremendous predictive power in that. You don't even need to apply particularly clever math to account for quality of comp and linemates.
The thing is, I'm starting to suspect that if was Ward and Julien that were married to that way of thinking, not the Oilers.
I'd be interested to know whose idea it was to hire Draper. Was it ownership, business ops or hockey ops?
On MPS, it's hard to imagine him NOT making this team. Left wing was a disaster last year, Moreau and Jacques had terrible years and I can't see any reasons to believe that either will suddenly get better.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if the plan is to tank for another year and draft very high again ... well Moreau, Strudwick, Chorney, Jacques and Deslauriers may well be key figures in the plan.
With the season ticket waiting list wasting away (as per Schitzo above) I can't imagine that the Oilers are really going to try to fail next year, though.
I am a former season ticket holder, let them go for this year and all you need for proof that 'the list' is miniscule at best is the fact that on my renewal deadline I was phoned to get 'one last chance' at renewing my tickets. I declined. A week later I was phoned to get 'one last chance' at renewing my seats seeing how exciting the future will be and all. Anyways, I continued declining and got no less than 4 'last chance to renew' phone calls. I highly doubt they have a massive waiting list anymore like they claim.
ReplyDeleteExcellent news on MPS.
ReplyDeleteSome were mentioning Brent Burns earlier in the thread. I think the Oilers should consider trying to acquire him.
He's a big, fast defenseman that hasn't quite lived up to what the Wild expected (maybe because LeMaire kept flopping him to forward).
I live in Wild country and talks of moving him are increasing. The Wild have NO forward scoring to speak of, so POS and Nilsson along with a prospect (nash? Omark?) might be attractive along with one of our second rounders.
Burns could flourish with a change of scenery. I'd be interested. Are you???
I wouldn't want anything to do with Burns after reading about his concussion problems. He's likely due for a short career in hockey. Great player, though.
ReplyDeleteVic Ferrari: If the plan is trying to tank next year, the whole suggestion by Jason Gregor that the Oilers are going to look at buying out at least two of Nilsson/O'Sullivan/Moreau doesn't make a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteHeck, even if they're not going to tank, they're not going to contend either. If you can't unload those guys, just swallow hard, have them here or in Springfield, and get those cap hits 100% off the books at the end of next season. Don't spread out the pain over two years, even if it is at a reduced number.
GREGOR IDEA MAKES NO SENSE - FILM AT 11
ReplyDeleteAnd with that, I'm off to the pub with Pat and Mike to meet Lord Bob.
Oh, and for some reason I think Draper's been with the Oilers for a long time - like 10+ years. If that's right, I'm not sure he's the guy who's going to bring in the numbers. Seems it would have happened by now.
ReplyDeleteSo Paajarvi signed today. LT must be bound and gagged somewhere to have missed it thus far.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is, I'm starting to suspect that if was Ward and Julien that were married to that way of thinking, not the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteI'm under the impression that pretty much every NHL team breaks down video to get the numbers on their scoring chances for and against, and has been doing so for a number of years.
Whether they are breaking down the scoring chances for 29 other teams is the question. I'm think likely not. In that case they don't need better statistical models, they just need more guys watching more video.
bank shot:
ReplyDeleteI have no doubt that all teams are tracking scoring chances, at least the coaching staffs. Surely at the minor league level as well.
I don't know if management deals with them, though. As well, are they tracking scoring chance by player or on-ice? O'Sullivan and Moreau don't look too bad by the first measure, but terrible by the second measure.
And I don't even think it's necessary to record the scoring chances for other team's games, the shot proxies are near as dammit. Maybe for special teams. I'm sure that some teams are doing that, but not the Oilers.
And when the Oilers scouts went and watched O'Sullivan play ... I'm sure they saw that he was getting really favourable ice time ... PP time, lots of time with Kopitar, starting the lion's share of his shifts in the offensive zone. How much did they nick their evaluation for that?
For the Oilers, I'm setting the bar really low. I'm just hoping they're tracking scoring chances at all levels, and esp the on-ice tracking. And I'm hoping that's key in their evaluation of players. I kind of doubt it, though. Otherwise how does Taylor Chorney keep getting so much love? Why are Strudwick and Jacques getting praise this off-season? All are scoring chance/Fenwick black holes.
I dunno. I'd like to think they are shrewder than they let on, but this team has lost my faith.
Draper's comments seem like pandering and PR more than anything serious to me.
ReplyDeleteStupid is as the Oil does.
From the sounds of it, they are on the way to making a small fortune for Mr. Katz. Too bad he had a large fortune to begin with.
Nothing makes a business more attentive than declining revenue.
Deano
ReplyDeleteIn fairness, I'm lead to believe that the Oilers are working on a system to yield advanced stats in real time. Presumably to use them during the game. Taking the NHL.com data and manipulating it the way that several folks around this part of the internet do.
Hardly cutting edge, we know that the Rangers were doing the same at least 20 years ago, and they had to record their own data and write their own software from scratch (if the DB programmer hadn't managed to get an academic article published on the subject I doubt we'd even know about it).
Still, it's a step in the right direction. I'm having trouble picturing Quinn going all Ron Wilson on us in this regard, though.
I suspect that they are well behind most of their competitors in this regard. I'm not hoping for them to become cutting edge, and again, I don't think that this sort of analysis is the cure to all that ails them, just something that would help. And I don't know if the current culture would even want to embrace something like that, C&B enlightened us on how backwards they were wrt in season off-ice training.
Still, if they hired someone away from the Kings, Hawks, Preds, Devils, Sabres, Blues, Stars, etc ... someone in the know. I think they could at least catch up in a hurry.
Because the same guys with shitty on-ice fenwick and scoring chance numbers last season are going to have bad ones next season. It's unstoppable. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that Smid will fall back down to earth by these measures now that Visnovsky is gone. Or that Cogliano will bounce back in this regard with better linemates (I think the Marioish shooting percentage is gone forever, though). Granted, there were precious few 'good linemates' to go around last season, esp after all the injuries and illness.
Do the Oilers realize that?
Vic: You do realise that Fenwick only has a 0,6 correlation with success?
ReplyDeleteI mean, it's an okay indicator but it's not ground breaking. It's like assuming everyone has the same hands or shot.
Bankshot:
ReplyDeleteJust one more thing :D
I remember a long time ago, three or four years ago, when I was first using shot proxies ... just shots-on-goal at the time.
There was a lot of criticism, most of it was just grasping at straws from people defending their personal fave players. You made a terrific point though, the guys who kill penalties are going to get knicked because there is often a stretch just after a penalty expires where the other team has really good possession in your end.
It's a simple thing, and it makes little difference for most guys, but a real difference for a few guys on each squad. The second unit PK and PP guys.
There is actually an input in the scoring chance script that the guys use that winds back the time X seconds and checks to see if there was a recent PP. It defaults X to 1 second I think. Move it to 7 or 8 and it really changes the picture for some guys.
The thing is, that's a really simple idea. It has some intuitve merit, and empirical evidence drives it home. Scott has pointed out the same thing, on a case by case basis, a couple of times.
And on the off-chance that some other NHL teams haven't figured that out yet, I don't post about it. RQ and Matt would get into a debate about the best way to deal with it in the comments, a bunch of cats from other teams would come back and read the comments section every day ... and the Oilers would play Jacques at left wing against good players. Readers of Dennis' scoring chance stuff and quain's Zona's etc analysis of it would predict that to go badly, but find no takers for wagering.
It's genuinely disheartening.
FPB:
ReplyDeleteWhat were you expecting? That's the ratio of covariance to variance, nothing more or less. I think this is where a lot of people go astray though. It's my central concern with most of the MLB analysis (though certainly not all of it, Tangotiger and Bill James certainly have this figured it out, and ALbert is through the looking glass).
Imagine a game of Sprint 'n' Spin. You run a 100m sprint and then spin the big wheel from The Price Is Right a few times. They alter it a bit, though. The size of the $1.00 square gets increased 2% for every second of time under 20 seconds that you sprinted.
You get a Sprint 'n' Spin "GOAL" every time you spin a dollar.
Lets say there are ten sprints and spinning sessions in one head-tohead Sprint 'n' Spin game, and 82 games in a Sprint 'n' Spin season.
What will be the Pearson correlation for Sprinting/Winning? Piss poor is the correct answer.
What is the correlation of Price Is Right wheel spinning to winning? Freaking huge, especially in the short term.
But sprinting is everything in Sprint 'n' Spin. Or at least almost everything. The only biostatistician in the world who thinks so is oilswell, and the only people making money betting on the game are aware of it.
Some guys clearly are better at spinning the wheel, but success at that aspect is a fleeting thing.
Plus we live in the world. If a guy gets hot on the wheel and has a big lead in a Sprint 'n' Spin game ... he's going to back off on his sprinting for the remainder. No point wearing yourself out or risking injury after all. The game is in the bag unless you blow a hamstring ... best to play it safe and avoid a disasterous hamstring injury or some such. We'll call that 'sprinting to the score'.
That analogy is frighteningly simliar to NHL hockey, FPB. Both at the player and team level. Try it yourself.
BRIdub
ReplyDelete"I highly doubt they have a massive waiting list anymore like they claim."
Well they have a decent sized waiting list since I have been on the list for 3 years and I started at position 1000 and I am now at 494. I will be going to select tickets this year on June 22-23. That is if I can get some decent seats. If not I will continue to wait...