Sunday, May 16, 2010

Tambellini: "Pat's our Coach"

Jim Matheson's Hockey World (I can't find it online yet) has a quick update on Pat Quinn's situation. Tambellini says "yes, I want Pat back" and the thrust of the story is that should Quinn want to return he'll be the head coach.

I've wondered aloud (do people still do that, I think they keep it to themselves more these days) about Quinn's future with the team earlier this spring. He was born during WWII and has been either playing at a high level or coaching there for over 50 years (Quinn manned the blue for the Hamilton Tiger Cubs of OHA Jr in 1958-59, age 16), and I think we all felt he wanted to coach one more time in an effort to win the Stanley. That isn't going to happen. Still, it is a three year contract at good dollars and Pat Quinn doesn't strike me as a guy who quits in the middle of a challenge.

I don't think any of the young players took a step forward last season under his watch. Certainly injury had much to do with it and sometimes young players have to endure a few miles of rough road before they learn how to make good time once they reach the blacktop. It is also obvious that Quinn is not the long term solution (he'll be almost 70 at the end of his contract), so the Oilers have to spend this time evaluating possible replacements (Renney, Buchberger, maybe Daum if he returns as AHL coach).

93 comments:

  1. I posted a link to Matheson's snippet suggesting the Oilers potentially investigate trading for Malkin in the previous thread.

    That Tambellini thinks keeping Quinn around is a good idea just makes me fear more and more that he'll do something stupid like the suggested Penner/Cogliano/Hemsky for Malkin swap.

    Two things I ask for:

    1) No whale hunts.
    2) Quinn out, Hitchcock in.

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  2. No one took a step forward during Pat Quinn's tenure? Are you being serious?

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  3. HBomb: They're not going to trade for Malkin. The management has clearly sold the owner on a rebuild, so adding a Malkin is about three years too soon.

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  4. masgisterrex: No YOUNG player took a step forward this past season. I stand by that statement.

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  5. The closest you can get to that is Brule, but I don't see any evidence that Brule took a big step forward as a player. He got an opportunity and he had a better shooting percentage last season than he did during his full season in Columbus.

    But the things he brought this past season are what we should have expected from any coach.

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  6. Penner stepped forward, but he can't be considered a "young" player as he should be hitting his prime right now. and his early season run was as much an F U to MAcT as anything. He's a legit top line LW, but I wouldn't say it was because of Quinn. Brule may be one, but maybe, like LT said, it's more a matter of minutes and opportunity. With a healthy hemsky Brule doesn't see any time in the top 6 last year.

    I think OTC will be back next year, and if the progress doesn't happen and we end up dealing one of hemsky or Penner, then he's gone since it means we would be 3-4 more years away from true contention.

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  7. My biggest issue with OTC is his seeming refusal to shelter players, or at least try to use them situationally. If the big club is going to be breaking in some hot shots like MPS, Hall/Seguin, Eberle in the next couple of years, I would like to have a coach who doesn't insist on rolling lines. They need some soft minutes and offensive zone starts, not D zone draws against the Thorntons and Toews of the league.

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  8. HBomb: They're not going to trade for Malkin. The management has clearly sold the owner on a rebuild, so adding a Malkin is about three years too soon.

    That is a very logical statement Lowetide.

    I'm concerned that Katz, Tambellini and Lowe aren't logical people.

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  9. This is good news. Pat Quinn and Taylor Hall seem like a match made in heaven.

    In terms of no young player took a step forward, I thought Brule took a positive step, and Gagner seems more of a complete player than he did the year before. Dustin Penner had a career year statisically, Ryan Potulny did more than anyone expected.

    Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Moreau were dogs. I wanted them gone before the beginning of last year. Dog players make coaches look bad, the problem wasn't the coaches, it was that the Oilers didn't have enough hockey players. Players that wanted to pay the price. Bring in Hall, MPS and Eberle and then we can fairly judge the coaches.

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  10. HBomb: All I can tell you is that in the brief conversations I've had with people connected to the Oilers they are absolutely committed to the rebuild.

    To the point where the AHL team will be a major focus next season, and at the big league level I bet you money they sign a couple of 1-2M free agents at the outside.

    They're looking at doing this the right way: back up the prospects and make them earn the NHL job.

    The negative side of it is that the team may have three blue chip forwards (MPS, Hall/Seguin, Eberle) so it could look like business as usual.

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  11. The lack of sheltering players is annoying from OTC, but I expect he'll merely "balance" out his lines in the same mold as last year. Instead of "size, skill, two way guy" on each line, i expect he'll just spread the kids around (3 new kids). If they do go with Hall I expect this kind of lineup

    Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky (power vs power line)
    Penner-Gagner-Eberle (would eat up softer opposition as most teams would check line #1)
    MPS-Cogs-Brule (scary in own zone, replace cogs if possible)
    Jones-Potulny-Stortini (grind line that would be OK in own zone and outscore other teams 4th line)
    Stone-Pou

    Now if Tambo can add a solid two way centre to play in Cogs spot then we are golden. I've stumped for his guy for ever, but if we can somehow pry Dubinsky away from teh rags 9someone posted in yesterday's trhead a Cogs+Souray for Dubinsky+Roszival) then I expect we'll be a solid team.

    MPS-Dubinsky-Brule, while somewhat suspect in their own zone would be tough to play against (Dubinsky one of the most physical guys in the league) and would create chances with their forechecking and speed.

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  12. Hbomb: That guy was probably the coach of the best team who didn't make the playoffs.

    + If you guys call out the JM and JL anti-hockey, you won't like Hitchcock too much,

    (Just get a guy from Junior)

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  13. The negative side of it is that the team may have three blue chip forwards (MPS, Hall/Seguin, Eberle) so it could look like business as usual.

    I'm sorry, but IMO having three blue chip forwards is neither business as usual nor a negative. About fucking time, I say. It's going to take a little time for them to learn and grow and become good pros, but it should be fun to watch.

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  14. Bruce: What I meant was it might look like business as usual if they elevate these players (as they did with Gagner, as an example).

    Clearly it is a good thing overall.

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  15. So instead of signing a couple of $1-2MM FA, sign 5 or 6 of them.

    This ain't 'rocket surgery'.

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  16. Business in usual, as in we get killed? Yeah, probably.

    That said, I don't remember the Oil having this many pre-rookies on the cusp with legitimately high hopes about them since 1980.

    It'll be fun to see Eberle and MPS play against each other this afternoon. (Omark too.) Program note: the CAN-SWE game is on TSN 2.

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  17. Deano: I think the proper plan of action is to elevate the kids when they're ready. imo all of Hall, MPS and Eberle would rank on the Oilers top 12 forwards at this time.

    I think they'll sign one free agent forward. A center. I also believe they'll sign a couple of free agent blue, or trade for them.

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  18. Anyone have any idea where that C match is beng shown?

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  19. Bruce: I do think the organization will at least think about sending MPS to Sweden, Eberle to Okla City and Seguin (should they draft him) back to junior.

    The issue should be are they ready, but I think the organization might have a hard time marrying their new "long term" approach with elevating their three best prospects.

    It also creates a logjam for arbitration and offer sheets down the line.

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  20. Again, planning for them to be ready is different than confirming that they are ready.

    If they are all crushing the AHL so be it.

    Strategy is what you do when there's nothing to do.

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  21. Well, if they keep OTC, then imo Tambo continues to bat .000.

    I didn't like the hire last summer and though I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt (based on snazzy dressing and good quips) his coaching decisions this year were not supportable. A teacher/motivator like Arniel out of Manitoba would have been (and still would be) a better choice for a young team with some excellent prospects up the pipe. Money spent on a coach is not cap money, so the Oil should cut their losses and drop OTC (and Renney too).

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  22. Deano: Well I think signing a free agent scoring RW (as a for instance) would probably mean Eberle is in Okla City for the year. So in signing the player you are cutting off his path to the show.

    I don't think I'd be in favor of it in Eberle's case.

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  23. Bruce: I do think the organization will at least think about sending MPS to Sweden, Eberle to Okla City and Seguin (should they draft him) back to junior.

    I wish we had the depth such that this was the plan no matter what the case at training camp.

    However, I think it's more likely that all three of MPS, Eberle and Hall/Seguin prove their among the 12 best options for forward spots this team has and they all make the team out of camp.

    In 2010-2011, it could be ugly. Come 2012-2013, it could pay off and be be downright scary.

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  24. Hbomb: That guy was probably the coach of the best team who didn't make the playoffs.

    My apologies fpb, but I don't quite get whom you're referring to here....

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  25. Hitchcock, the other 2 are Jacques Martin and Jacques Lemaire.

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  26. HBomb: Well they could push back all of the kids if they wanted to, but it would be a pretty weak hockey club.

    What I'd like to see is each of the three given a long look at TC. The "bubble players" might be people like Ryan Jones, Ryan Potulny and JF Jacques. Here's a F depth chart without the kids:

    Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
    Gagner-Cogiliano-Brule
    Pouliot-Jones-O'Sullivan
    Potulny-Moreau-Stortini

    Nilsson
    Jacques
    Reddox

    That obviously won't be the roster, but you could create a team without using the kids. If MPS and Eberle were in Okla City they could be the first callups.

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  27. We all are in a tizzy about Eberle, but his 'progressions' are 3 small samples - 2 AHL playoffs and 1 game against Norway.

    Are you sure he's as ready as you think he is? Again, make him show it.

    MPS could do with a lateral move to the AHL to get the smaller ice sorted out w/o burning a year of eligibility.

    What we are talking about here is about an extra half-season out of the NHL and it comes with an extra year of eligibility.

    All will get some time in the NHL due to injuries.

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  28. I think the prospects all start the year in the AHL in a show of organizational discipline, however, I suspect a few of them force the team into moving them up by mid-season.

    I think this is the plan. You don't get on the NHL club until you dominate the AHL.

    Hall or Seguin will be a tough call because you have to make the call in training camp - NHL or another year of junior (what a stupid rule).

    MPS may well accept the AHL if he is told - look kid, if you go to the AHL and tear it up, we will bring you up after a couple of months.

    By the way, the term 'organizational discipline' was not a joke. I think Tambellini is looking to prove that he is not going to repeat past mistakes with player development. I think Cogs and Nilsson have taught the Oilers a lesson with regards to the coachability of players who don't get an ample helping of how much the AHL sucks compared to the NHL. Those two guys probably still think they could repeat the 2007 performance if the coaches would just give them a chance - stupid coaches.

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  29. LT: Jones on the 3rd? Really?


    Horcoff-Nilsson-Hemsky
    Gagner-Penner-Brule
    Pouliot-Cogliano-Potulny
    UFA-Moreau-Stortini

    I wouldn't burn all my stock on the first line. First 2 C switchable.

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  30. HBomb: Well they could push back all of the kids if they wanted to, but it would be a pretty weak hockey club.

    Isn't that what a dedication to a 3 year rebuild looks like?

    I agree it will be a tough sell for the fans and there will be pressure to keep someone exciting up here. Maybe it will be Hall/Seguin because they may not benefit from another year in junior and it will sell 1000+ tickets.

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  31. ''Welcome back to Major League Baseball... sort of...''

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  32. I don't see a reason to hold any of these kids back if they come to training camp and deliver.

    MPS has played in the SEL (and extremely well), so in a way his resume is stronger than Eberle's. And Eberle has passed every test out there, so to my way of thinking bringing in a Kyle Wellwood (or another player in the 1-2M range) isn't a good idea.

    You could sign Lombardi, but he's not coming for a one-year contract. In terms of free agent forwards, the only guy I'd pursue is a veteran faceoff guy.

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  33. Like taxes, arbitration and offer sheet logjam is a nice problem to have.

    Nothing wrong with pushing one of my 5 or 6 FA vets onto waivers. Make the kids force their way up instead of planning for them to be able to play at the NHL level.

    LT, you know this is the solid way. Eat your own cooking.

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  34. Deano: It isn't my way to hold back the water when they're ready. I think the organization would be silly to send MPS away if he's ready to play in the NHL.

    Eberle and Hall for that matter.

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  35. ...but what if they're not ready?

    Push them in off the pier again?

    Plan for them to not be ready instead of the other alternative.

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  36. OK found it. For anyone else looking TSN 2 at 12pm. WC, Memorial Cup and SJS v CHI, all on one gorgeous Sunday afternoon when I should be out and about.

    Instead the remote's gonna be getting the workout.

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  37. Get free agents who can play but can be shoved aside. (Old utility guys). No one has a healthy lineup all year anyway.

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  38. Deano: But we're not dealing in a blind universe here. The SEL is a very good league and MPS played well in it last season, plus he's building on his resume at the WHC's. Eberle also has a strong resume.

    Hey, I'm all for having Jacques, Jones, Potulny and others in the mix in case they're not ready, but I'm not spending dime one in free agent money for the guys who'll come to EDM during a rebuild.

    Because you know who we're going to sign? Geoff Sanderson at the end. Frankly, I'd rather have O'Sullivan and Nilsson.

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  39. LT: Can't we get rid of Jacques D=? Please? I mean he just sucks so much.

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  40. ...or we might get a Mike Johnson or Miro Satan.

    I think we need 3 more of them than you do - just in case. Its better than having another situation like Cogliano's.

    This mgmt team relies too much on turning their hat upside down so some luck may fall into it.

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  41. HBomb, youre quite vocal against a deal like that as if its an outright terrible idea.

    Its atleast worth consideration, were it actually on the table.

    Considering that Hemsky and Penner are UFAs in 2 years, IF either return they will get hefty raises.

    Lets say both stay? Hemmer for $5.75M cap hit, Penner at $5.0...

    Thats 10.75M. Malkin is at 8.7M for another 4 years. You are left with a $3M replacement value in space, definitely a downgrade, but its a tradeoff in an extra 2 years security, but the bet is covered in your upgrade through the middle.

    Its not like the 8.7 is handicapping us the next couple seasons, and we need two value contracts. Those value contracts are worth more to playoff teams than the Oilers. Pretty much useless to us.

    If we can get a stud like Malkin, with 2 extra years over Penner Hemmer security, its definitely somethging to consider. Not something to scoff at IMO.

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  42. I think we need to be reasonable about the free agents that will come here. Edmonton:

    1. Hasn't been in the playoffs in forver.

    2. Is staring at another long season.

    3. The organization has stated (from the highest levels) that they are in a long term rebuild.

    We're more likely to get minor league free agents or Euro players to come here than a free agent from last year's NHL. Because the ones who have two options aren't coming here.

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  43. danny: I'm of the opinion that, while Malkin is better than anything we have:

    - he is not an 8.7 million per year player (no one outside of Crosby, Ovechkin, or Lidstrom circa 2006 is worth over 8 million per season, IMO)

    - you give up your two best forwards for him

    Is it worth consideration? Sure. Would I do it as GM? Heck no.

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  44. Malkins worst season of his career, equals Hemskys best. 77 points. Malkin did that in 14 fewer games.
    Hemsky is 3 years older than Malkin.

    Hemsky is a future all-star, Malkins been there done that. Generational talent.

    Should one become available at his age, and health, you trip up over yourself on the way to the trade table imo.

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  45. if OTC is back, it signals to me that we're going after larsson next year. plain and simple. Quinn just doesn't have the chops of a "new" coach.

    i'm fine with that, as long as we do take the long road with kids. if the kids make the show, OTC is a waste of their 1st year of contract.

    count me on board as someone who'd be pro Lombardi. he's good in the dot, and things "turned on" the last year he was in calgary before being traded. this year, lombardi was exactly the type of player the flames were missing. if we grab hall, lombardi would help round out our C situation nicely with him and horcoff sliding up and down the food chain depending on team and assignment specialty.

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  46. ...are you prepared to have any of the wunderkinds stagnate like Cogs?

    Its an inexact science and I don't care if its Sanderson and Oates that we get. Let's not eff this up over a few warm bodies and spending Katz's money.

    $600K on a one-way is better than starting the car salesman career. Hell they gave that much to Matt Roy for 'danger pay'.

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  47. LT: the UFAs coming here isnt the worry. Just isnt happening. The worry is our UFAs bolting.

    We can probably keep our UFAs with overpays, but where does that get us?

    I think EDM is going to have to trade and draft their way into contention before any UFAs consider Edmonton.

    Which means losing Hemsky or Penner for nothing is significant, should it happen.

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  48. danny: Our UFA's (Pisani, Comrie) are imo MORE likely to come back than someone like Lombardi.

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  49. LT: because Lombardi has better options. Same as Hemsky two years from now. Same as Penner two years from now.

    Staying in Edmonton is different than resettling in Edmonton. Staying is easier, especially when guys like Pisani/Comrie dont have people knocking down their door.

    Theyre irrelevant anyways. The commodities, with value, are the ones that EDM cant risk losing to UFA.

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  50. It's a conversation we have often, the impending free agents. But you know what? The organizaton made a deicison on Smyth, and on Niinimaa and on countless others.

    I'm not convinced Hemsky will walk if the Oilers are going in the right direction, and Penner may stay too if things look good. Remember, he's already got a ring and doesn't strike me as a bright lights kind of guy.

    Worrying over Hemsky and Penner two years down the line is fine, but things should look much better by that time.

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  51. I am a huge critic of big game hunting but am not sure but that if you could keep your crown jewels for the rebuild...MPS/Gagner/Hallguin/Eberle and still get Malkin that it might be a very good deal

    Malkin will be in his absolute prime when the core is ready to compete and the balance of the core would make for a very good supporting cast on a very good team.

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  52. I'm eager for TC so we can talk about kids, and it will be based on theyr TC, not future of what we think and blah blah blah.

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  53. OT, but since we're talking about malkin, i figure it's okay.

    i've just been looking over samwise's career numbers:
    http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=93938

    and comparing them to Patty Kane:
    http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=96554

    sam has never really been a big producer offensively, except for that one year where he played with Mr. Kane. Was there some concern that samwise was enjoying the Patty Kane Bump? pat was the bigger producer (2.5pts/gm), but sam was at 2.2 pts/gm that year -- the gulf between the two is now very substantial.

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  54. I'm with Danny. I don't think Malkin gets traded, but if he's available it would be crazy not to make an offer. If he isn't one of the top ten players in the league then he is definitely one of the top twenty. He's 23 and has already had two 100 point seasons and won Conn Smythe and Art Ross trophies. He's under contract for four more years.

    The Oilers don't have a player remotely as good as this and haven't since Messier. When players like this get traded, the team that gets them virtually always wins that trade.

    It would be madness to give up picks and prospects for him, because the Oilers aren't close to contending, but if Pittsburgh want roster players, then I don't think anyone is untouchable. Hemsky is three years older, coming off surgery, can walk for nothing in two years and scored as many points in his best season as Malkin scored in his worst one. Penner has had one good season as an Oiler to go with one as a Duck, and can walk for nothing in two years.

    Surely the rebuilding can proceed as well or better with one of the best players in the league signed for four years than it can with two good, but by no means great players signed for two.

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  55. Malkin is now a better fit agewise., but I really do not want to go whale hunting anymore....

    After Penner's feud with MacT I'd be surprised if Edmonton is in his top-25. We better hope that he marries a local girl.

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  56. It's not whale hunting if you got a deal down, and the player agrees. You just have to prepare two scenarios.

    Heck i wonder how come it's so flabergasting to management.

    You call the team and you call the player. I don't get how it's supposed to be so damn hard.

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  57. Omark's running mate Johan Harju just snapped one in.

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  58. LT: I have a question. If you don't believe in clutch, how do you explain Mariano Rivera's playoffs stats? Luck doesn't last that long, and there's a world of difference between a 2,23 lifetime ERA and 0,75. Same goes for his WHIP who goes down from 1,01 to 0,75. And he's only facing better batters since he's in the post-season.

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  59. FPB: At a guess, I'd say the difference came from hitters not being familiar with him. Other ideas might be more plays scored errors in post-season (this shouldn't be dismissed, we're talking a very small sample size) and pitchers facing pitchers in the WS (which they don't do in the AL).

    If you gave me some more time, I could come up with other items (ballpark effects, the NL parks used to be bigger) but that's what I have off the top of my head.

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  60. Well yeah. But we could say the same for Mariano who doesn't know the hitters.

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  61. I've now read the statement "keep him in the AHL so we don't waste a year of his contract" in reference to Eberle and Paajarvi at least a dozen times in the last week.

    Just to clear up a year in the AHL counts against the entry level deal. Carry on.

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  62. FPB: Traditionally, we give the credit to the pitcher in that scenario, no?

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  63. For the record, 24 of Rivera's 88 playoff appearances have been in the World Series, the other 64 in the AL playoffs with familiar rivals, ballparks, rules, etc.

    His record is pretty incredible. FPB picks a nice example for the "clutch" argument.

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  64. Yeah. I think it's easier for a batter against a new pitcher. Because you usually see the pitchers throw a couple before your At-Bat, and good hitters take 0 or 1 pitch to get timed. And if it isn't a new guy to the show, his pitches are probably known around the league. While a batter it's more complex, and very situational.

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  65. I'd give the Yankee closer the advantage in that scenario.

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  66. Bruce: Not really. He's a closer. We need to ask ourselves two questions:

    1. How many earned runs are we talking about?

    2. Over how many seasons?

    Since he's a closer, it won't be that many.

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  67. LT: 13 Earned runs in his WHOLE CAREER. That in 133 innings, which would make for 2 healthy seasons.

    It's 1995 to 2009 with 2008 excluded.

    That's a good sample to me.

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  68. FPB: How many earned runs would it take (beyond what he gave up) to make his earned run average align with his regular season totals?

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  69. 22 Earned runs.

    He basically cut his ERA in 3.

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  70. He would need 22 earned runs over his career in order to make his ERA match his regular season totals?

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  71. So, that's a little more than one earned run per year?

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  72. 1,5.

    God knows it can make all the difference in Baseball.

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  73. Rivera has been in a tremendous number of postseasons, just unreal really in the modern game.

    How many series? LCS? ALDS? WS? A lot, I'd bet.

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  74. LT: I don't believe there's many closers who got the equivalent of 2full seasons in playoff games.

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  75. His numbers are really exceptional, no doubt. I remember watching the FLA WS when he threw to second, I'd just said to my wife "he never makes a mistake" and damned if he didn't do it just then.

    Either way, the best reliever of my lifetime, although Bruce Sutter was as dominant before injury. But maybe that's the point of Rivera too, he just kept on pitching at that crazy level.

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  76. I believe if all 30 managers in the MLB had a choice of who they'd go with to close the 9th in a game 7 of WS they'd all choose Rivera. So would I.

    (And if they wanted to screw it up they'd take Kyle Farnsworth)

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  77. He would need 22 earned runs over his career in order to make his ERA match his regular season totals?

    As in 22 MORE earned runs, right? 33 instead of 11?

    It's an astonishing record he's amassed over those 14 Octobers. Not so much all-world, as otherworldly.

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  78. coach wrote:

    "I've now read the statement "keep him in the AHL so we don't waste a year of his contract" in reference to Eberle and Paajarvi at least a dozen times in the last week.

    Just to clear up a year in the AHL counts against the entry level deal. Carry on."


    Eberle's 3 year starts if he's in the NHL or AHL.

    Paajarvi's would not start if he plays 9 NHL games or less in the 2010/11 season.

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  79. ... and the day we sing Rivera's praises, he walks in a run, then gives up a game-losing grand slam.

    Important note: It wasn't a playoff game. So this just makes him more clutch than ever. ;)

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  80. Brule most definitely took a step forward this year....if you consider him one of the young guys.

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  81. I don't really see how keeping Quinn around makes sense and though I enjoy doling out doses of reality as much as anyone after awhile Quinn's constant negativity has to be considered a detriment to the kids.

    They're young and they're gonna fuck up and it's better they don't have to listen to their grandfather talking about it in the press.

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  82. I don't really see how keeping Quinn around makes sense and though I enjoy doling out doses of reality as much as anyone after awhile Quinn's constant negativity has to be considered a detriment to the kids.

    "Constant negativity"? I found him a hell of a lot more positive than most people would have been in his situation. I suspect MacTavish would have hung himself at a media scrum.

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