Term. And the amount. Those were the concerns initially and that brought others. It was a tough year to be Nikolai Khabibulin.
- Boxcars: 18gp, 3.03
- SP: .909
- WLT: 7-9-2
- SP ahead of backup: .008
- Cap hit (capgeek): $3,750,000
- What do these numbers tell us? We should be clear about this: even before the injury, Khabibulin was not quite NHL average. Then we add the fact that he got hurt and that was fairly predictable. Tyler Dellow last July 1: "Contrary to what Ryan Rishaug was saying on the radio, Khabibulin is not a particularly healthy fellow. He seems to miss 10-20 games a year with back/groin/knee problems. I’m no gerontologist but that doesn’t sound to me like something that gets better as people get older." Khabibulin was not an upgrade on Roloson (even when healthy). The best stat he owned a year ago was a .924 EV SP, which was "in the range" with divisional rivals Kiprusoff (.928) and Luongo (.925).
- How could the numbers be better? He needed to stay healthy because the gap between NK (which was just below NHL average but could win you games) and two rookies was pretty big. Khabibulin's performance for the Oilers in 09-10 started poorly (opening night error) and never got on track.
- You liked him a year ago. Last summer, I wrote "like the goalie, don't like the numbers or term" and stand by it. My main issue is that the contract goes so deep it all counts against the cap even if NK walks away (my understanding is that the Oilers won't have to count the contract against the cap if he can't pass the physical at TC).
- What about a trade? GM Tambellini spent almost half of his most recent PC talking up Khabibulin (the other half was devoted to JF Jacques in what was a bizarre moment in Oiler history). I don't think he's going anywhere.
- Did Chabot help? I have no idea. I doubt they spent a lot of time together based on GP totals this season, as the coach had a few other things to deal with (2 rookie goalies) in 09-10.
- Can he save this contract? Age and injury history would suggest the answer is no.
- How Important is he to the organization? He's very important to Tambellini. This was the marquee move for the new GM and unless this player has a rebound season the club will be left with two lame-duck years of contract for a guy who can't (apparently) play or stay healthy. Some bad arrows here.
Performance in 2009-10: 18gp, 3.03 .909
Projected Role in 2009-10: "Happy" to be the Oilers starting goalie
Khabbi's Happy Hour.
ReplyDeleteIf he retires his cap hit can be traded with a low pick to a cap floor team, if he gets injured we can go over the cap by that amount. The only worry is that he stays healthyish and plays badly. His cap hit was actually 19th among goalies this year
ReplyDeleteWhen Khabibulin continues to stink and/or get injured, securing top draft picks for the Oilers for the duration of his contract, other blogs will call it the "Edmonton model."
ReplyDeleteAging drunk goalie - check
ReplyDeleteYoung screwed up goalie - check
Emergency backup young screwed goalie - check
We're set, although I'm not exactly sure for what.
If he retires his cap hit can be traded with a low pick to a cap floor team,
ReplyDeleteI've asked this before, and didn't get an answer: *are* there any cap floor teams these days?
Has anyone ever tracked goalie consistency?
ReplyDelete(By that i mean variation in SP% each game)
I tought it might play a negative or positive role in how pro scouts regard the Goalies.
Not sure how DDs last 10 starts qualifies as screwed - but whatever.
ReplyDeleteThe only chance the Bulin contract has at being acceptable is if one of the young goalies emerges over the term and becomes a quality starter in the last year at a decent rate. I have zero faith that JDD accomplishes that so it's up to DD.
10-11 NK 50 starts / DD 32 starts
11-12 NK 41 starts / DD 41 starts
12-13 NK 25 starts / NK 57 starts
If DD busts or is simply mediocre then the KB contract is something worthy of being fired for all on it's own.
FPB:
ReplyDeleteYeah, I did this back in March:
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/03/09/how-consistent-are-nhl-goalies/
Complete with MSM-style HTML formatting.
Yeah, I did this back in March:
ReplyDeleteIt would be interesting to track this from year to year, to see if the same goalies always show up near the top and the bottom of the list. My entirely uninformed hypothesis is that they wouldn't.
You just have to love our two big free agent signings - two old injury prone players. That's a real savvy bunch leading this rebuild.
ReplyDeleteThank you JW.
ReplyDeleteWould like to see if there's a correlation between consistency (Just that not good or bad) and overpay per what his save% is.
Last summer, I wrote "like the goalie, don't like the numbers or term" and stand by it.
ReplyDeleteThat still makes no sense. You have a soft spot for slightly below average goaltending? You must like a lot of NHL goalies.
I was 100% sure this was going to be "2000 Light Years from Home"
ReplyDelete"19th Nervous Breakdown"
ReplyDelete"As Tears Go By"
"Biggest Mistake"
And my personal Oiler's (under Kevin Lowe) fight song,
"Paint it Black"
This is a fun thread to look back on as well, the "GDT thread" for last July 1st.
ReplyDeletehttp://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/07/were-not-jet-set.html?commentPage=1
Thanks JW, those consistency articles are great. I was wondering the same thing as FPB.
ReplyDeleteAverage SV% seems a better way of assessing goalies to me, considering the difference between one that stops 30/33, 30/33 and 32/34 in consecutive games compared to one that stops 50/50, 21/25 and 21/25. Both have 92% actual SV%, but one has a 92 average SV% and the other has an 89 (and reminds me of JDD).
Unless I'm doing the math wrong, Khabibulin was at 90.7 +/- 3.7 in his 18 games to start the season, compared to 90.1 +/- 7.3 NHL-average.
LT, I don't know if it's fair to say that Khabibulin never got on track. If you don't mind me cherry picking some stats:
After his first three games where he averaged 86%, he put up a 91.5 actual SV% and 91.6 +/- 2.9 average SV% in the remaining 15. The actual is just at league average (so not impressive considering I'm picking stats in his favour), but the average SV% is tied for 8th in the league (according to JW's chart) and is maybe a reason for some optimism about next season (at least in terms of performance, not necessarily # of performances).
I wasn't happy with the Khabibulin signing, I think there could have been less risky, more econmical signings out there. (I was personally eyeballing Clemmensen, with Anderson being the backup plan).
ReplyDeleteNow that he's here, let's try and make the best of it and hope he shows he still has some prime goaltending years left in him.
DangerMan.
ReplyDeleteBy the time it matters he will likely have succumbed to liver disease.
If I buggered up on similar scale at my job, I would be unemployed. (The offering a bad contract side, not the drunk driving with a broken back side.)
ReplyDeleteWhat does it say about Tambellini's capacity for denial that he hasn't, um, tendered his resignation over this? He's got a Satheresque set of blinders on, or somethin'....
Wow. I really enjoy all of the sophisticated contributions on this board, but I don't agree with the sentiment on NK. I don't follow the math too carefully apart from basic stats, but I recall NK being the best thing about the Oilers before he got injured last season. He was consistent and reliably good for nearly every game he played in front of a horrible team that got more injured with each game. I have no doubt that this team would not have the #1 pick in June if NK was healthy for the season, although they still would not have made the playoffs. He single handedly won games for us early in the year. There were a couple of games early on where he was absolutely unreal.
ReplyDeleteNonetheless, I agree with your assessment of the contract. Too long, and too much money. The term especially is too risky for a goalie of his age and injury history.
If he is healthy for a good chunk of the season next year, he himself could easily make what will be a poor team into an average (non-playoff) team.
Doesn't Crappybulin basically say in that quote that "nobody else was stupid enough to offer me that much money, for that length of a contract"?
ReplyDeleteBecause that's how I read it.
I recall NK being the best thing about the Oilers before he got injured last season.
ReplyDeleteThat's called "damnation by faint praise".
it's like the day I read Keith Richards fell out of a tree. Why is he up in the tree? Do a lot of 60+ males spend time in trees?
ReplyDeleteYes. Embrace your inevitable future LT.
The only chance the Bulin contract has at being acceptable is if one of the young goalies emerges over the term and becomes a quality starter in the last year at a decent rate.
I don't get how this saves the Khabby deal.
Mudcrutch said...
ReplyDeleteI don't get how this saves the Khabby deal.
I think the apologetic reasoning refers to the comments that Khabeeb was signed partly as a mentor, and Roli let go specifically because he was not being a good mentor.
The Oil were willing to pay for that veteran mentorship, and if the mentoring works out, then maybe there is some value in the contract for the braintrust.
Many fans wanted Anderson hired, but Anderson was coming from the similar situation that Roli had come from... worse actually, since Roli was more of a career 1A as opposed to a career back-up.
After the experience with Roli, it sounded like the Oilers didn't want to get into another situation where their Top Goalie was acting selfish about starts and practice time and the development of the youngsters.
I'm speculating here, but I think that context is probably the source.