- Boxcars: 48gp, 3.26
- SP: .901
- WLT: 16-28-4
- SP behind starter: .008
- Cap hit (capgeek): $.600M (rfa)
- What do these numbers tell us? There were 6 rookie goalies who played over 1,000 minutes in the NHL this season. They were: Rask (Bos) .931; Howard (Det) .924; Varlamov (Was) .909; Gustafsson (Tor) .902; Deslauriers (Edm) .901 and Dubnyk (Edm) .889. JDD played in front of a poor team but you'd be hard pressed to include him among the league's top rookies at the position. Deslauriers had some outstanding games (3 SO's tied him with Howard for 2nd among first year G's) but as mentioned above there were some poor moments.
- How could these numbers be better? JDD does have one year's experience now and must have picked up a few things along the way. I don't think his resume looks like a starting goaltender's, but it is also true this is a tough position to project (partly because it relies so heavily on the quality of the men in front of the goalie).
- What about injury? He's healthy.
- What about a trade? The Oilers do like him, but it is likely that Tambellini will deal one of the kids and use the other as a backup to Khabibulin. I think it is anyone's guess as to which way they go in this area.
- Did Chabot help? I have no idea.
- Could he start in front of Khabibulin? I don't think so. His EV was .905, which trails the veteran (.924) by a lot and isn't much better than Dubnyk's (.902).
- How important is he to the organization? I don't know if he's in the long term plans. We should get an indication this summer, as Tambellini has suggested that the club doesn't want to have a repeat of the three-headed monster from a couple of years ago.
Performance in 2009-10: 48gp, 3.26 .901
Projected Role in 2009-10: NHL backup goalie
Trading JDD for a decent pick or a goalie prospect (I've floated trying to pry David Shantz from Calgary's org) makes the best sense. IMO, we've seen the highwater mark on this guy and he will never be the starter the org needs. Send him away now while his warts are still small and not apparent to other GMs (hello, Darryl?).
ReplyDeleteI'd wager a small coke that Dubnyk's numbers are inflated... er, I mean boosted... hmm... INFLUENCED positively by the few games late in the season where the team had a reasonable run.
ReplyDeleteMy call on this is, bring Deslauriers and Dubnyk on 2 way deals, bring in additional AHL goaltender, a Sanford/Valiquette/Sabourin type, let them all battle it out for the backup spot. The 2 losers, send them down the same day, as they will have to clear waivers, and hope that only one at the most gets poached.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to keep with my thought that JDD is no more than Mathieu Garon V2.0.
i feel it will be Khabby starting and Deslauriers as backup this coming year, and i'm fine with that! we will have solid goaltending.
ReplyDeleteSolid like vodka.
ReplyDeletei feel it will be Khabby starting and Deslauriers as backup this coming year, and i'm fine with that! we will have solid goaltending.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure we had Khabby starting and JDD as a backup when we started the 2009-2010 season. Now that was some solid goaltending.
If Khabibulin is staying as the starter, then I don't see any problem with the 3 headed goalie monster for the next couple of seasons. I don't know that I would trust either JDD or DD entirely if 35 goes down, but give him 42 games and the kids 20 a piece and we might see the end of the year without a goalie on the injured reserve. Plus it would give JDDDD a chance to learn at the NHL level without facing the worst night-in-night-out. I mean, JDD played, what, 5 games when Roli was here? This year the guy basically had to learn to swim by being thrown in the deep end. He might never be an NHL-calibre starter, but if he was, this year sure fucked him up. It would be nice to go without a repeat of that with DD, or an eventual DD/Roy tandem should Khabi go down again. It's not a very good use of Khabibulin's contract to have him play so little, but if the other two come cheap, then you do it.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, get rid of both of them (or send DD back to the A where a DD/Roy situation is more palatable) and bring in another veteran and go 1A/1B. Again, not a good use of money, but the mess is made, time to make the best of it.
Thanks for coming out Jeff.
ReplyDeleteSorry about the shitty development program.
Your skills are easily and cheaply replicated through free agency.
I know OKC needs a starter, would you sign a 2 way?
If not, then best of luck.
If we can't get Bernier to be our young goalie, I'm content with waiting to hope that Deslauriers will be given a "normal" year in which to develop. His skill will shine through.
ReplyDeleteHe has something you need in any decent goalie, which is that he can deliver the high-end performance a decent number of times. He more shutouts last year than Roloson had in all of 07-08 and 08-09 for instance.
When he bars the door, he's certainly good enough to win games in front of. I haven't seen as much of that from Dubnyk yet. Nor have I seen the superior athleticism.
INFLUENCED positively by the few games late in the season where the team had a reasonable run.
ReplyDeleteHe had an 8 game run of .923 save %
7 goalies did that last year. I think you can figure out who they are.
Its more like the team was lucky we had a goalie capable of doing that.
how many in the last 5 years?
Guess you can figure who I think we should keep.
JDD has never shown that capability
ReplyDelete"He has something you need in any decent goalie, which is that he can deliver the high-end performance a decent number of times. He more shutouts last year than Roloson had in all of 07-08 and 08-09 for instance."
ReplyDeleteI think high end performances are overrated. The most important quality of an NHL calibre goalie is consistency. For every 5 great games JDD had he had an equal or great number of awful ones. Anyone remember Brian Boucher's 5 game shutout streak? Does that make him an elite goaltender because he can play lights out for short stretches? No. The same applies for JDD.
Here's hoping the kid proves everyone wrong and overcomes the math to be a solid consistent starter in the league. Just don't bet the barn much less the farm on it.
sorry guys, but Khabby was playing rather well for us until he was injured, and JDD played well enough for a guy who was thrown into the fire, then ended up with an injury-riddled team in front of him. i just don't get the lack of love for this guy? (JDD)
ReplyDeleteDug,
ReplyDeleteIf you're goaltending behind chaos, one of your jobs has to be steadying the ship. Ability to play the puck, communicate with the D, be a calming influence. Not to say there's no place for a high-wire act, acrobatic goalie, but it's probably Out There somewhere, not here in this situation.
Take LTs Pascal Leclaire idea and see if Florida will take Cogliano and Khabby for Vokoun.
ReplyDeleteThis would probably only work if you get the bulin wall to retire and then Florida gets the cap hit but doesn't pay the bucks since they'll have a ton of cap space.
Plus Florida has some great goalie prospects including Jakub Markstrom who they probably want to get into the NHL.
Not sure if it was just my eyes but I think he stopped trying to emulate Marty Brodeur and his puck skills in the 2nd half and consequently got better as a result.
ReplyDeleteWas it just me?
Not saying he's a keeper but maybe the kid matured and realized he's not one to be messing with the puck...or at least not at this stage in his career...
Projected Role in 2009-10?
ReplyDeleteBackstopping the Oklahoma City Blazers to the AHL Mid-western Division title.
Go Champ!
Cogliano for Price
[as part of the Souray for Kostityn deal]
JDD is a backup who performed about as expected with a very mediocre .901 SP. Trade him, offer him a 2 way, walk away - doesn't much matter as you can replace his numbers easily and cheaply. He's had his chance.
ReplyDeleteDD - showed something at the end of the year and you look at him seriously in 10-11. You would have to be a total dork to cut loose DD in favor of JDD. No way he clears waivers. But you need to step up when you have the chance and he should get it in 10-11.
Why is there no way DD clears waivers? I don't see that, and I liked him more than ADD
ReplyDelete@Alice....if you are goaltending behind chaos, you can only do so much as a rookie thrown into the fire, wouldn't you think? and i think he did what he can. i just think people need to give this guy some TIME to develop, yet they seem to have him out the door? and for Dubnyk? JDD clearly out played DD, gave the Oilers 16 hard fought wins, .901 save %, 3 SO, and i say that's not bad for a rookie with a LOUSY team in front of him! and we don't know yet do we if JDD can be the man of the future. but we won't know unless we keep him and play him.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletenot sure why everyone is so worried about other teams grabbing our goalies off waivers. as far as i can remember there's no real precedence, if anything, taking a tweener goalie off of waivers is exceedingly rare.
ReplyDeletethere's been plenty of better prospects bounce up and down and no one has cared. every team has a goalie of similar equivalency that they're trying to develop on their own and i'm not sure that either of our goalies have shown enough to be on anyone's radar.
i'd sign then both to two way deals and send them both down and split the games. whoever is obviously better throughout the 10/11 season wins the backup job for 11/12 or possibly even the 12/13 season.
meanwhile we should focus on solidifying the position with a decent backup who can step up if need be. i'd be shooting the dan ellis, chris mason or emery quality of goalie. we can afford it given the cap hit LT's team currently has (48m) and we certainly need the confidence an actual stopper can provide the fragile psyches of our junior aged team.
also, this is a decent link to all the FAs this summer:
http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/2010-nhl-unrestricted-free-agents-by-position/
I wouldn't bet on it or anything, but an outside chance market for Khabiboulin might be Washington. Theodore is UFA, Varlamov can carry the load for a good chunk of the regular season (so can try to "preserve" Khabb's health). They might be dazzled by the idea of a goalie who doesn't fold in the playoffs, providing his back isn't crooked.
ReplyDeleteWorst case for them they have a veteran backup to Varlamov.
@ Darren
ReplyDeleteI would bet that DD doesn't clear waivers because of the way he played for the stretch at the end of the year. He showed a lot of potential and if we send him down the waiver wire he's absolutely free for a GM to take a shot on. Smart GMs gamble on free potential, because if DD doesn't pan out for them they didn't really lose anything. I am pretty sure DD would get picked up on waivers should we go that route.
@ Dug
Well I can't speak for everyone, but, I personally don't like JDD because he has all the tools to be a good goalie but he doesn't complement them with basic goaltending skills like positioning. I mean all you have to do is tap your posts. It's that simple and JDD still gets lost in crease. Aside from that he's streaky, and a chaos goalie and those tend to be bad for young teams.
Peter
ReplyDelete"I'd wager a small coke that Dubnyk's numbers are inflated... er, I mean boosted... hmm... INFLUENCED positively by the few games late in the season where the team had a reasonable run."
I suspect that you are right: the problem is that the exact same reasoning could be used to discount the late season "upsurge" in the play of Tom Gilbert and others.....
No this is not a rant on Gilbert it is just that....for many on this site the strong last 20 games by Gilbert solidifies him as a top 2 pairing D man. It may just be evidence that he recovered offensively at a point in time in the against teams that no longer cared
Baseball analogy. Bill Caudill was a relief pitcher who, early on, laboured for a series of mediocre baseball teams: Cubs, A's (pre Billy Beane) and Seattle. He had good, to very good stats, as a set up man and closer for those bad teams. Traded to Toronto at age 28 and absolutely blows up. If you needed gas thrown on a late inning rally.....Bill was your man!!! Why....maybe it was injuries. Coures it might also be a wee bit easier to hold leads and get saves when the games are 100% meaningless.
Caudill was a good late inning relief pitcher......when the game did not matter
trade JDD for whatever, sign Price short term (2 yr?) to back up habby. send dubnyk to the minors. By my math DD still gets a reasonable # of NHL starts when habby goes down to injury.
ReplyDeleteSomething smells wrong with that Caudill story...
ReplyDeleteAnyway, the Oilers probably don't really need a goaltending switch this year. Why bother?
Nikolai Khabibulin: I Just Want To See His Face?
ReplyDeleteApparently not, reading some of the comments on here :-)
I felt like Deslauriers got a lot of plum games down the stretch (the minnesotas, st. louises etc) while Dubnyk, especially before he got that first win, got much tougher starts against the Detroits and San Joses, seemed unfair to me.
Also, Ryan Miller (great goalie) has talked about wanting to be a "boring" goaltender, not making the crazy gumby saves but playing smart positionally and being consistent and not fancy but simple. Dubnyk plays more like this which I like. Deslauriers is too wacky and lets in some absolute groaners.
@Alon....i just think that JDD played well enough to earn a backup spot to Khabby next year, and if Khabby plays well and healthy, he's still effective. this way JDD doesn't get into too many games, and can watch and learn. JDD's problem (and DD's as well) is that we haven't been able to play either one in the minors a lot for a few years when we didn't have our own minor affiliate. when you share one with another team, your asset doesn't always get the time he needs to develop, and this is what happened to both JDD and DD.
ReplyDeletethey are a little behind, and i'd like to think that JDD is a PART of the youth movement and not a casualty. i don't think we should give up on him after just 48 games this year.
Bill Caudill, Luongo, Ovie
ReplyDeleteNot Clutch
Gary Carter, Crosby, Super Saver
Clutch
Jagr signs in Russia for next year as per TSN.
ReplyDeletei don't think we should give up on him after just 48 games this year.
ReplyDeleteIt's not just this year: at no point during his professional career has JDD shown the hallmarks of an eventually successful NHL goalie. Dybnyk has, at least during the latter portion of last year, and arguably during his AHL stint at the beginning of the season. That doesn't make Dubnyk a sure thing, but it does make him a better bet than JDD, if only marginally. That said, I'm not totally adverse to keeping both, since goalies are a crapshoot and both are likely safe from waivers.
As per Email from the Oilers
ReplyDeleteCORNET SIGNS NHL ENTRY LEVEL CONTRACT
General Manager Steve Tambellini announced today the Edmonton Oilers have signed left-winger Philippe Cornet to a three-year NHL entry level contract.
Cornet, the Oilers 5th round choice, 133rd overall, in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, recently completed his first season with the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies of the QMJHL, after spending the previous three seasons with the Rimouski Oceanic.
They've signed Cornet. That's one down...
ReplyDeletegood to hear they've signed Phil Cornet :)
ReplyDeleteWaive JDD! Waive JDD! Waive JDD! Waive JDD!
ReplyDeleteI'd rather not lose Dubnyk, just because he's younger and his failures to produce great results are therefore less damning to his value as a prospect. But if he goes for nothing, I'm unconcerned. We can easily sign a better goalie and if we can sign some guys with potential off waivers too.
Oh, and isn't this more confirmation for the rule that you never draft a goalie in the first round unless he's a true phenomenon.
Book the parade route. Sign the C onto Cornet's sweater. Contact the sculptors to make a Cornet statue. Call NY Times to do story on greatest thing to ever happen.
ReplyDeleteAwait Nirvana.
looks like the trolls came out
ReplyDelete1) Dubnyk is 2 years younger than JDD and is significantly further along in terms of development than JDD was at the same age.
ReplyDelete2) After a rough initial period of getting used to the NHL game after his first call up (common for young goalies) he outplayed the more experienced JDD down the stretch.
3) SPR was decent with Dubnyk who they relied on a lot and was absolutely awful without him
4) athletic goalies with bad technique look like JDD - occasionally spectacular but having a tendency to regularly let in a soft goal. Making the big save is not however what keeps you employed in the NHL - it's eliminating the softies which cost wins. Although he is not as athletic - Dubnyk's technique is way better than JDDs who still has frighteningly big holes in his game. NHL goaltending is about consistency and that is something that JDD has never shown anywhere in his pro resume.
It's no contest - you keep DD and give him 30 starts next years with a vet to continue his development. The latter part of the season showed that DD has potential - whether that potential is realized is another issue - but we already know JDD's upside is backup NHL goalie and should not waste any more development time (and wins) on that.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCan JDD's glove hand be fixed? If no, flush him. If yes, then for the love of christ fix it.
ReplyDeleteLooking into JDD's SP numbers game-by-game, there are 4 out of his 48 games in the .900-.910 range. For the numbers geeks, the distribution is bimodal - twin peaks ;-) in the .880's and the .940's
ReplyDeleteThat looks like a consistency issue to me.
For the Python fans out there 'he's not dead yet.'
I feel for JDD 'cause I think he got a royally screwed over here when the business decision (LaForge?) was made to fold the Roadrunners. I also think that Prendergast paid for this error.
To my eyes, DD looks to be the better prospect due to the late run and JDD's tendency to get 'lost at sea'.
If either of these two prospects gets claimed off waivers, his new team has to keep him on the big club.
I do not see the appeal for any other team to pluck either of the inexperienced co-backups from the team that finished in 30th place - by a fair bit.
They're both safe from waivers - no matter what Lowbellini says. If not, so what? Move on.
Schitzo,
ReplyDeleteIf he can fix the glove, then you have to work on lateral positioning, staying too deep in the net, and his temper.
Hey WG
ReplyDeleteMind firing me off an email?
bak47 at hotmail dot com
I'm in Team DD for backup. If you take away his rough initiation in his first few games, he began to get better and settled in.
ReplyDeleteBut I would make the minimum qualifying offer to JDD, on a one-way, and if he accepts it, risk waivers. I think he did enough to earn the QO.
If somebody offered me a 3rd round pick for JDD, I would take it.
JDD = Jeff Draft-Deslottery
ReplyDeleteDug,
ReplyDeleteI am a troll. Beware of crossing bridges without a sack of gold coins.
And you might want people to recognize your name before you start tossing insults based on silly on a comment that the regulars here surely knew was silly, even if it wasn't that funny.
---
Might it be a good idea to give JDD and other similar prospects you want to waive a two way deal with a somewhat inflated NHL cap hit. That scares off potential signers. It allows you to leave JDD or whoever on the farm long term, and if you want to bring them up, you can. Of course, reentry waivers are also an issue, and quite frankly I don't exactly understand them.
PDO,
ReplyDeleteSent
Look at Varlamov's stats and then look at DesLaurier's stats. I think we're jaded by the team's performance when we judge JDD's abilities.
ReplyDeleteIf JDD played in front of a decent defense on a non-lottery team, he would also be a decent goalie.
ppl saying DD is obviously better seem to forget his 0-12 start.
ReplyDeleteperiod. there's nothing that proves he's a substantially better goalie.
perhaps there's stats that prove he's marginally better, but c'mon...we're still talking about tic for tac on a 30th place team...we need monumental change, not minor.
period. there's nothing that proves he's a substantially better goalie.
ReplyDeleteI'm a big fan of opening paragraphs with "period."
10 had a quote after DD's 50 save win in LA that I always think of when I see our netminding being discussed. He said something along the lines of how DD was composed and quiet in the net and how it gave them confidence and you can't read that without thinking of how that contrasts with JDD's style.
ReplyDelete