I've been watching to see any news in this area (capgeek, Oilers announcement) and it has been crickets. He's 6.0, 220 and scored some goals in college. He has a really good shot and would seem to be a decent bet for pro hockey.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Is Blair Riley an Oiler?
I've been watching to see any news in this area (capgeek, Oilers announcement) and it has been crickets. He's 6.0, 220 and scored some goals in college. He has a really good shot and would seem to be a decent bet for pro hockey.
Looks like a solid AHL player with some chance of an NHL career with is size and hands. Maybe OKLA will be a solid team. Looks more and more like all 4 of the forward rookies have a shot at making the big club, but I wonder if they send both Eberle and Omark down to the AHL and start with Hall and MPS. So much for lacking LW depth. So does this mean Penner plays the tough minutes almost checking role so that the kids get sheltered? Or if it's Quinn does he just roll his 3 top lines and sprinkle in the 4th?
ReplyDeleteI'm very curious myself. He apparently uses his limited speed effectively, and has the size and drive to protect the puck and drive to the net. Like DBO said, seems like a decent AHL player, except he also has a A+ shot. Quick, hard release which coupled with his net drive abilities makes him as good a bet as any college UFA to make the NHL.
ReplyDeleteI really hope the Oilers haven't dropped the ball on this and have this guy inked to a contract. He might turn out like Lerg, but like Burke says, college and Euro UFAs are like a found wallet, the only thing they cost is money.
I was just reading that Tim Thomas has heard rumours about the Bruins wanting to try trading him this summer, and that he's comforted by the fact that he has a no-trade clause in his contract.
ReplyDeleteHere's my question, why the hell does Tim Thomas have a NTC? Did he take a look at that ridiculous 4-year, $20 million deal from the Bruins last summer and say, "You know what, I know nobody else would offer me anything close to this, but I just don't think I can sign it without you also including a NTC."?
Never mind how crazy it was to give the guy that contract when they knew they had Rask coming up. How could they have possibly given him that power to top it off?
Having had time to think about the firings of the dressing room staff, its kind of apparent that they probably were more interested in yapping about the good old days, much to the annoyance of the players.
ReplyDeleteSimply hiring a psychologist isn't enough. Pat Quinn needs to bring a priest over, with an exorcism support staff.
The power of Christ compels you!
ReplyDeleteThe power of Christ compels you!
Seems like Blair Riley's been on the Org's radar for a while, some googling lead me to a listing of their 2008 Development Camp. Hopefully he's got a good relationship with the team and an announcement is pending or, ideally, an afterthought.
ReplyDeleteWish I could find some video of the guy, but the reports are glowing. Phrases like, "One of the CCHA’s most consistent point producers all season," and, "Has been able to fight through checks and continue to produce," should make the future in OKC a bit rosier if we bag the fella.
I think I'm make Blair Riley my new fave prospect, since his name reminds me of the anti-prospect Nash, and the perpetual prospect MacDonald.
ReplyDeleteThinking of Taylor Hall collecting his paycheck reminds me of Paul Muni in the original "Scraface".
ReplyDeletecollege and Euro UFAs are like a found wallet, the only thing they cost is money.
ReplyDeleteHow does a found wallet *cost* you money?
Signing him would use one of the 50NHL contract spots they have. The Oilers have come up against this limit a few times in the last few years and with all the recent signings this could be a factor.
ReplyDeleteFair enough, he mixed analogies, found wallet in that it's something you don't have to pay for, but he's using picks and players as the currency, not cash which is what would be in a wallet. A bewildering yet understandable analogy.
ReplyDeleteSomebody would have to play out of position but I can just imagine a line of VandeVelde, Riley, and Hartikainen. There would be a speed differential issue they'd have to solve. CVV is a far above average skater with a backoff first step. Riley and Hartikainen on the other hand aren't notorious for their fleet feet. (Has anybody heard if Hartikainen has made any progress in this regard?) That said, they could give you fits once they had the puck in your end.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it more like finding an ice cream cone at the store? You have to pay money for it, but you don't have to take home the tub of remaining ice cream to take up space in your freezer.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I'm bored.
Commonfan,
ReplyDeleteAdd to that the brutal Lucic contract and Chiarelli is not impressive at all.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteWhich player would you prefer right now, with contract ... Lucic, or Horcoff?
Speaking of hearing crickets... has there ever been any word on Khabby's back surgery/rehab? Other than the use of alcohol as a painkiller?
ReplyDeleteGilbert interview in Today's Sun.
ReplyDeleteBlair Riley @ 24 years old
ReplyDeleteNCAA- 40GP/18G/20ASS/38P - .95 PPG
NCAA - NHL comp = 0.41
AHL - NHL comp = 0.44
(source Behindthenet.ca)
This would logically lead one to believe that Riley should put up close to a point a game in the AHL.
Only Linglet and Minard came close to a PPG last year on the Isotopes.
Blair Riley sounds like a Ryan Potulny clone, but with some talent.
ReplyDeleteHunter,
ReplyDeleteThey are both overpays based on last season's performance.
Horcoff probably should be 4.0M ish given what he does (tough qual comp, big pk minutes, tough zone starts)
Lucic should probably be paid 1.75ish given what he brings (crasher/energy guy)
Lucic doesn't play the PP or PK, he's a pretty one dimensional player.
Horcoff plays all situations.
You take Horcoff and its not close.
You can find a Lucic replacement easily for 1.5M or so.
Horcoff replacement (tough minute centers) are much more rare and you will probably overpay to get them.
Matt: And Eberle...
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: Though I agree with your most comments re: Horcoff/Lucic... finding a 'Lucic replacement' easily for 1.5M seems like a stretch. Can you name any? I would think he's worth 2M (clearly not 4M) and is a bit of a rare commodity himself.
ReplyDeleteUnrelated question: Where does Tony Rajala play next year?
Brandon? OK City?
Blair Riley sounds like a Ryan Potulny clone, but with some 'size'..
ReplyDeleteWoodguy:
ReplyDeleteImagine Horcoff repays the percentage of salary he didn't actually earn last season- how much of it does he return? Fifty percent? Sixty percent? More?
Just trying to keep Horcoff on discussion, as per Traktor.
If lucic was easily replaceable for 1.5M then I am sure the oilers would have put an order in for at least two by now...
ReplyDeleteBendelson,
ReplyDeleteHe scored at .4pts/gm, so pro-rated over 82 is 32pts.
Lets call it 15 goals and 17 assists prorated.
Doesn't play the PP or PK.
If we use 5pts as a margin of error, then we want a player who scored between 27 and 37 points last year.
There were 100 of these players in the NHL (ranked 181-281 in scoring)
I'm sure some of them would fit the bill.
Bendelson:
ReplyDeleteIf he comes back to NA next year he'll have to be with Brandon or the Oilers.
There have been rumors he'll be heading back to the Finn league in order to complete his compulsory military service.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteI understand your thoughts in regards to point production (that being said, if you were to put him in front of the net on the PP, he would likely score 20).
More to my point: How many of those '100 players' are young and improving, can and will fight anyone, and scare the crap out of the oppositions defencemen having to get the puck out of the corners.
He has a somewhat unique set of intangibles that go well beyond 'point production'.
Just not $4M worth of intangibles.
Bendelson,
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
If JFJ didn't have a wonky back and didn't leave his hands in the AHL....
JFJ actually had a much better junior pedigree than Lucic.
I think his 20 year old season will be the high water mark in Lucic's career and got overpaid in terms of results for that one season.
Woodguy: Thanks for the info. Let's all hope he's in OK city in two years then... if military service is required, then get it done (don't get shot) and get your ass to the AHL as quickly as possible.
ReplyDeleteIf he's an Oiler next year, we are in deep, deep trouble.
Good prospect - lets hope they develop him properly.
Whoops, that was a thank you to Dorito re: Rajala.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: that's funny, I almost included 'DON'T SAY JFJ' in my last email re: Lucic... but alas, you couldn't resist could you?
Traktor, that's a bit of hyperbole. I can think of a number of teams right off the top of my head that wouldn't touch Lucic with a 4 million contract that isn't expiring. San Jose, Chicago, Los Angeles just for starters.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather have Horcoff at 3.5 (4 million at the most) and Lucic for 2.5 million (3 million maximum if there is tonnes of cap space).
ReplyDelete30 teams would take Lucic at 4 million. 0 teams would take Horcoff at 5.5
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!
What color is the sky in your world?
Even at 4 million Lucic's value is still a 1st round in the 15-20 range.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff's value right now is a 7th round pick if not negative value.
I have a couple Questions that have been mulling around my head today:
ReplyDeleteI'll preface my question with:
The NHL is a copycat league and looking at the success of Byfuglien in the playoffs and lucic this year.
1. Do you think the Oilers should make Penner available for trade?
2. Looking at the NHL as a copycat league, do you think Penner has more value then Hemsky on the trade market.
It is hard to not believe that the Canucks would not pay the moon after getting dominated by Byfuglien for two straight playoffs.
Thoughts???
dorito and bendelson:
ReplyDeleteSince Rajala was drafted out of Europe and not the CHL, he is AHL eligible for next season if the Oilers want him to play there.
Imagine Horcoff repays the percentage of salary he didn't actually earn last season- how much of it does he return? Fifty percent? Sixty percent? More?
ReplyDeleteRe: Horcoff his two post contract years.
After the 06-07 season Horcoff said he let the pressure of the contract affect him. Did not eas up til game 50 is what he indicated.
Went to a Psychologist to help with that. He needs a new one. he is repeating the process.
The start of the this season I said to a Flames fan at work, " watch him suck for 50 Games and be his consistent self the rest of the year."
06-07 first 40 Games .45PPG
Last 40GM .8 PPG
Last 40GM 06-07, 07-08, and 08-09 .8PPG
09-10 first 55 games .37PPG
Last 22 games .74PPG
I will take .7-.8PPG (Top 20-30 for centers) for the next 5 years of the contract. Against tough Comp. and tough Zone start. usually only 5 centers a year.
Back to arguing over horcoffs value. Yawn.
So few teams would take Lucic at 4M$ with cap issues.
ReplyDeleteHere's a few clones of him:
Hartnell
Byfuglien
Downie
Burrows
Simmonds
Backes
Gaustad
Hanzal
Yeah we could argue there's better/cheaper players in that list.
WTF does Horcoff and Lucic have to do with Blair Riley?
ReplyDeleteI like the Oilers going after some cheap additions. Seems like Burkie has been doing it to some success....
As a strategy, I endorse it.
WTF does Horcoff and Lucic have to do with Blair Riley?
ReplyDeleteThis is the Oilogosphere; we've only got so many topics of conversation, and MacT hasn't lost the room in months.
I find the ongoing bleating about Horcoff tiresome. Perhaps people with strong feelings about this subject should start their own blog. Perhaps the masses would converge in pursuit of such breathtaking analysis by these dizzying intellects.
ReplyDeleteNow then, Woodlief has Hall back on top and Granlund at #3.
http://tinyurl.com/2a2zd2p
fpb: Lucic - Burrows/Hanzel???
ReplyDeleteThey have value and ARE hockey players, but that's about where the comparisons end.
Clones they are most definitely NOT.
(Hartnell is closer - at least drops the gloves).
Great cheap addition? Mikko Lehtinen. That's a Bos trade that makes real sense to me. Developed properly, and ready to go.
WTF does Horcoff and Lucic have to do with Blair Riley?
ReplyDeleteThis is the Oilogosphere; we only have so many topics of conversation, and MacT hasn't lost the room in months.
(Apologies if this appears twice - the first occurrence seems to have vanished, and I'm too pleased with myself to leave this comment undisplayed.)
fpb: From that list, I'll take Simmonds or Backes please.
ReplyDeleteBendelson: Check the PIM they aren't exactly sweethearts.
ReplyDeleteTough i would say Hanzal and Burrows have more talent.
If there's a strong market for Penner right now, I say we move him this summer and keep Hemmer.
ReplyDeleteI have very little faith in Hemsky's durability, but my belief that Penner is eating nachos right now is unshakeable.
What was wrong with that comment?
ReplyDeleteHmmmm you think we could add Nik Antropov to the list? He's still a pretty big guy.