For a blog that prides itself on using math and discouraging the "saw him good" crowd, I'll admit that this clearly runs across the grain.
But there's too much. Taylor Hall has an extra something, call it a dash of Howe and a pinch of Messier to him. If you're not comfortable with those names, we can use "Mark" Howe and I'll still feel the same way.
In last night's Memorial Cup opener Taylor Hall slammed into the boards in what looked (in real time) like a devastating injury. We all watch a lot of hockey and our brains are conditioned to disregard most hits and collisions because they occur so often. But when you see a hit like that one the brain tells you Taylor Hall's game (and possibly Memorial Cup) is over.
So it was with some astonishment that I observed the young man scoring a beautiful goal just a few minutes later. He played, and played well, although the game was soon decided and the shifts became fewer and farther between as the night wore on. There's always a chance we receive word today that the kid is concussed and that he won't play in the next game--in fact, I expect it. But Taylor Hall showed something (and we know from the scouting reports that he plays the game with abandon) last night and I'm convinced.
Those who read this blog know I'm a pretty stubborn fellow. Once I'm convinced of something that's pretty much all she wrote. My opinion up to this point has been that the Oilers need to draft the bpa and that Stu MacGregor should make the final decision. Still feel that way. But I'm changing my vote. I said previously that Seguin would be the better choice because the math says they are equal players, and that Seguin's being a center and coming on strong late tipped the scales for me. Reject all signals.
Taylor Hall has ridiculous talent, no fear and a strong will to win. He's the best player available and should be taken number one overall.
Hall is the man !!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteStunned that you changed your mind. I admit, I'm beginning to have second thoughts, myself.
ReplyDeleteHope the kid is alright, though.
there's a reason the oiler site has constant thumbnails on him. like now, it's a lock. it's over. if the oilers have a m.o., it's maylor oall. that's why they're broadcasting. he can't (dan, mary) choose elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteDammit LT. I was leaning, rather heavily, toward the center...and now this. I feel betrayed!
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers (br)ass should just walk up to the mic, pull out a loony, flip it and announce:
Heads...Hall because someone will take his head off in the NHL
Tails...Seguin because his tail was between his legs when his team got rolled by Hall in the playoffs.
I don't know what to believe anymore.
Good on you Lowetide for joining team Hall! I watched the first period of that game before going out for the evening and could not stop talking about (a) the hit, (b) the fact that Hall didn't miss a shift, and (c) the goal.
ReplyDeleteI have long summarized Hall with one word: CLUTCH. That's why I'd take him. He's got that "something extra" that we can't quite put our finger on, but we all know is important to hockey teams. That what I would define as "clutch".
Taylor Hall is a great, great hockey player.
ReplyDeleteStu MacGregor should be castrated on Jasper Ave if he passes on him.
i'd like to see some photoshop of pjoil necking with taylor hall. hair of the dog...
ReplyDeleteSteve: I don't believe in clutch, but I do believe in a player who brings that kind of physical element with an elite skill set. On that hit, he didn't shy from the check, he met it head on and the other guy won.
ReplyDeleteYou have to respect that. Call it stones, lack of intelligence or instinct, but guys with exceptional talent AND lack of far in high collision areas are as rare as hen's teeth.
I'm still leaning towards Seguin, but watching that last night I wondered aloud, "What's Jason Bonsignore up to these days?"
ReplyDeleteThat was a brazen display of nads.
That said, it almost made me want Seguin even more. How long can Hall play like that and put himself in those positions? I did notice that a few guys were TRYING to run him last night, and I'm sure that comes with being 'the man' and having a target on your back, but my worst nightmare is we end up with a Brett Lindros situation.
Hall is the 'safer' pick...but Seguin might be the SAFER pick.
Saw 'em good. He does that against the 2 teams that played in May? Likely will join you. Hope he lasts more than 5 years in the CAT scan era.
ReplyDeleteAnd speaking of tournaments of small sample sizes, would any one trade the 2008 No. 22 pick for the Bruin's 2010 No. 2 pick?
ReplyDeleteHeresy! LT is in the "saw him good crowd".
ReplyDeleteAnd that's what I'm greated with when I come in from yard work.
Can't wait to see the replay on NHL Network so I can see myself.
High praise from LT!
Hall is like Eberle these days. they keep throwing him curve balls and he keeps smacking out of the park.
ReplyDeleteWith both these players you can't overlook the fact that they have stepped up to each and every challenge and met or exceeded expectation.
I was hoping for Hall in January and he hasn't done anything to change my mind.
No way. Kid takes too many hits from guys who aren't ever going to be in the NHL. He was on the receiving end of the two biggest legal hits in the WJC. He's going to have his brains scrambled in the NHL before he's 21.
ReplyDeleteThis is a Lindros vs. Forsberg debate, only Lindros is 3 inches smaller and 30 pounds lighter. Lindros skating with his head down at Hall's size would have been out of the league much, much sooner.
Hall's going to need http://technabob.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/giant_helmet.jpg in the NHL.
For the "Taylor will die in the NHL" crowd keep in mind that he may recognize the difference between being hit by a 160lb 18 year old and a 235lb 25 year old pretty quickly and make a few adjustments (or he might not and he may not last).
ReplyDeleteI think there something to be said for the postitive things that Hall said about playing in Edmonton. I mean, we all know that its more about being the #1, but still, its nice to hear. It at least means he is willing to give Edmonton (and Eberle, MPS, Hemsky, etc.) a chance. If he really prefered to be in Boston, he could easily hedge his statements (like Seguin).
Hall may be sealing his own fate here because with the added press coverage the Oilers may be forced to pick him over Seguin due to public opinion even if they are leaning to Seguin.
LT: can you imagine the damage him and Smid will do on the PP!!!
ReplyDeleteI'll admit I haven't really watched a Mem Cup tourney since we had a couple of fellows in the '05 group but one thing I can get behind is that the Oilers could end up leaning to Hall just because he played longer in the season.
I think it's a case where the Oilers really can't go wrong no matter who they pick but I still want the centre if all things are even considered close to equal.
I haven't seen enough of Hall to comment with any credibility, but is he cruel enough to warrant comparisons to Messier and Howe? Both were enormously talented, durable, and hardnosed, but what set them apart was how freaking mean they were.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers have not had a Grade-A cruel bastard since Pronger left town (some lazy bastards remain, however), and that's what I want on my team. Not goons, but fellows who play with malice in their black hearts.
There is a chance that Hall has a better ppg number over his career than Seguin.
ReplyDeleteThere is a much greater chance that Seguin's career is 800 games longer than Hall's given his reckless style.
Ask Brule how his style translated to the NHL. From what I can tell they had similar styles, although Hall is superior in talent.
Even Windsor's coach says he's never seen a guy get blown up as much as Hall. Teenager's bodies heal fast and teenage Dmen rarely weigh 230 and can skate.
MBS comparing Seguin to Sakic has put too many stars in my eyes to give up on Seguin for the more flashy Hall.
Joe Sakic was never flashy, didn't say much and just went about his business.
The only thing that troubles me is 0 points for Seguin in the Windor series.
I didn't expect him to win, but 0 points in a playoff series (even 4 games) is a little concerning for a guy who is slated to go 1/2 OV.
Given that MBS is in charge and they seem to be talking to everyone these two have ever met I'll be happy with whoever they take.
PJO is wrong that one is way ahead of the other.
I still prefer Seguin for many reasons, but Hall sure has shown something in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteEither guy is going to be one heck of a good pick, so no worries.
For the "Taylor will die in the NHL" crowd keep in mind that he may recognize the difference between being hit by a 160lb 18 year old and a 235lb 25 year old pretty quickly and make a few adjustments (or he might not and he may not last).
ReplyDeleteDo you have examples of head-down skaters that have remade their game at the NHL level?
Bookie: Yes, maybe he makes that adjustment at the pro level, but for as much as we talk about injuries derailing development, I don't see how Hall's propensity for getting creamed can't be a factor in the decision. Or at least the debate.
ReplyDeleteI trust in Stu... but man the Oilers really cant afford to screw this up.
ReplyDeletePitfall #1 is Halls tendency to get crushed... but we know we have a Kopitar level player regardless.
Pitfall #2 is Seguins potential to be David Legwand or Kyle Turris redux.
It should be noted that Travis Hamonic was the guy who took him out in this game, and he's about 220 so he's an NHL-sized player.
ReplyDeleteStu MacGregor should be castrated on Jasper Ave if he passes on him.
ReplyDeletePJO, I think we're all very familiar with your feelings on Stu MacGregor's testicles by this point. (And Taylor Hall.)
Hall is demonstrating that he wants it. He is demonstrating that he can handle the pressure of playing in Edmonton. He's closing the deal.
ReplyDeleteHe had a head start. Seguin caught up, but Hall has taken advantage of the extra opportunities he has been afforded to separate himself.
To pick a LW over a centre, the LW has to demonstrate the intangibles.
Hall is making the decision for the Oilers, which is what you want the player to do.
Was it a fair fight? Probably not. Hall started out ahead and had extra opportunities to shine. But life isn't fair. And he is capitalizing on the extra opportunities.
Paajarvi Horcoff Hemsky
Hall Gagner Eberle
Penner Cogliano Brule
Defend that. Although "that" would have a little trouble "defending".
Cogliano and Souray and maybe something for Dubinsky and Rosival.
I agree he is the guy with that extra something.
ReplyDeleteBut the guys with the best careers avoid getting smoked very often. As good as he is, the Oilers need a 15 year career healthy guy, not a star who is in and out with a scrambled knoggin or gets hurt in the playoffs when the hits come often.
Nobody's brain is tough.
PJO is wrong that one is way ahead of the other.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad someone said it so I didn't have to. This is getting almost as annoying as when he was calling Cam Fowler a "phudu" every second post. Anyways, onto bigger and better topics.
godot10: A buddy and I were spitballing this morning. So if the Oilers take Hall, the Bruins will take Seguin and have an excess of centres, including a young right-hander with a decent record of performance, coming to UFA on July 1, 2011 (about a month before he turns 26). I'd propose the Oilers look to deal for said player.
Proposal: Sheldon Souray and Gilbert Brule for Patrice Bergeron.
Follow up with perhaps some sort of a move of futures to pick up an Andrew Ladd (or similar) for the 3rd line, and your forward lineup suddenly looks like this
Result:
Hall Bergeron Hemsky
Penner Gagner Eberle
Ladd Horcoff Cogliano
MPS Comrie Pisani
Is that forward lineup good enough to make noise? I have no clue.
What I do know is that Bergeron would be a very good return for Souray+. Especially if we could get him locked down to an extension at a reasonable rate. Bergeron-Horcoff-Gagner down the middle isn't super flashy, but it's bound to be very solid and will only get better as Gagner continues to grow.
Credit goes to you Lowetide. To admit that your prior belief that Seguin was the #1 was incorrect just gives you added credibility in my books. Now what about your prior assessment that Taylor is an impact player but not an elite player in the making? I would have to say its minimum 50/50 that Taylor will be an elite player. Its his desire to win and be the best that puts him over the top.
ReplyDeleteAlso credit to PJO who was right by all accounts. Talyor Hall's continued excellence against the best competition equals first overall pick.
Woodguy sums up my view.
ReplyDeleteAnother way to look at it:
Would we rather have the opportunity to send Hall out against Seguin for 10 years or Seguin out against Hall and his replacement for 15 years?
Damn that was quite a performance.
Gonna take serious stones to pick Seguin after Hall's playoffs. No pressure Stu.
If Stu MacGregor picks Seguin I'll be fine with it. Honestly I think the guy has earned the right to make this call based on his two seasons in the head scouting role.
ReplyDeleteAnd with regard to the comments on Hall's injury worries, I agree absolutely. It is a risk.
Everyone near the team keeps saying Seguin.
ReplyDeleteIts interesting that the Oiler's twitter account was giving Hall updates, along with MPS, 14, and DD.
Perhaps they'd give Seguin updates if he were still playing.
This post makes me smile. I've previously been a pretty staunch supporter of Hall but swung over to Seguin a little. It seems Hall is now winning over some of the strong supporters of Seguin. Either way we'll be blessed with a pretty great player.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately I haven't been able to watch any games or follow the blogs much while on vacation, but I imagine I'll have a lot of catching up to do in the archives when I get back.
WG - At this time, Seguin updates would likely cross over into creepy, no?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go ahead and predict Seguin will end up the better player simply because betting against PJO is always a smart idea.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, it's not as if the numbers don't like Hall either.
ReplyDeleteThere is a much greater chance that Seguin's career is 800 games longer than Hall's given his reckless style.
ReplyDeleteHow many of those with the team that drafted him vs whatever team signs him as a free agent?
Wow, interesting turn of events here, . Gaaawwwd, is there any way to get both of these guys? I want Hall but the Hall who isn't out of the league in less than 3 years with concussion syndrome or some other injury. No pressure Oilers.
ReplyDelete@Jake70...
ReplyDeleteLet's just get this straight. Virtually every Oiler who's half-decent (save maybe Gilbert) gets put on the injury list this year for one thing or another. We have the opportunity to draft a guy who is tough as nails, and has NO INJURY HISTORY. A kid who can take the worst hits and not miss a shift.
And you're worried about his injuries? Am I making any sense?
Potulny with 1 and 1 today in a 10-0 rout of Borat.
ReplyDeleteChorney a robust +3 in 12 minutes of work.
WG - At this time, Seguin updates would likely cross over into creepy, no?
ReplyDeleteHa!
NHL_Oilers
Tyler Seguin ate an extra bowl of cereal this morning. Watch his highligts here: http://cherriosandmilk.com/26o96cl
Seriously though, they are tweeting about someone is not a part of the organization.
This morning they tweeted:
NHL_Oilers
Only available today. RT @Oilers_Travels: Get your #Oilers Hall/Seguin jersey pre-ordered at the Locker Room Sale http://twitpic.com/1o1eiy
The Oil will put both Hall's and Seguin's name on a jersey for me? sold.
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteWhat you say is why I have minor reservations about Hall. It is not his foot speed, his talent or his insane compete level...... it is that he plays like Howe and Messier and is 15 to 20 lbs too small to do that.
Howe was one of the largest players of his era and Mess was as big as anyone (1980's coke machines excepted) until the tail end of his career when he quit playing with reckless abandon
I could see injuries catching up with him when a 230 lb D man hits him like Hamonic did
wow, LT. you really liked that through the legs at high speed, eh. way better than hemsky's version!
ReplyDeleteWell, I was afraid of doing this myself. Seeing more and more of Hall is making me realise how good of a player he is. It's just a shame we can't see more of Seguin to compare him to.
ReplyDeleteI was saying Seguin before this post, but was okay with either, like many of us. Now I'm just saying either one will do.
I tried the coin flip again and unlike the previous two times where it chose Seguin, today it chooses Hall.
So confused.
One of the telecasts said that Dean Lombardi lived with Doughty for 2 days.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if it was before or after he was drafted. (I find it less disturbing if it was after he was selected)
Imagine - some of these guys end up as prima donnas.
I think he lived with both Bogosian and Doughty for a couple days each to help decide who he wanted.
ReplyDeleteDynamite - but how does it help you if he gets 55 games in and misses the playoffs? If what he's doing is sustainable, that's Peter Forsberg's bull-in-a-china shop. I loved watching that guy play. Of course that didn't actually sustain, either.
ReplyDeleteBut after several years of watching guys content with handing over their lunch money, this will be a happy antidote. Smytty+. Git 'er done, Stu.
It seems the Hall bandwagon is sweeping the west and the east. must be a pretty big wagon...
ReplyDeletehttp://bruins2010draftwatch.blogspot.com/2010/05/spitfires-cruise-down-wheaties-9-3.html
http://www.csnne.com/05/12/10/Bruins-Notes-Orr-is-definitely-a-Hall-ma/v1_landing_bruins.html?blockID=233439&feedID=3944
http://www.hockeyjournal.com/news/2010/05/13_taylorhall.php
There seems to be a lot of thought out there that they will make a push for Hall. Is there any combination of picks/prospects that would make the oilers pass on hall for seguin. They have soured a bit on Wheeler. They also have picks 2, 15, 32, and 45 this year as well as toronto's next year.
How much of an overpay can you hope for. Wheeler +15 or toronto's first next year. probably an overpay based on what happened in 2003. I can't see the switch being made for just flipping a 2nd and a 3rd. Boston has quite a few C prospects and not much on the wing, I suspect they make a hard push for him.
eidy: I'd think EDM should be able to acquire a quality pick (BOS's first) or perhaps a bigger deal involving one of their centers.
ReplyDeleteBut if you're going to trade down, get paid in full.
http://cherriosandmilk.com/26o96cl
ReplyDeleteThat link isn't working.
¡
Compared to what is available this year, where would Eberle fit in (opinions)?
ReplyDeleteWould he be #3 or further down the list?
Bookie: Yes, maybe he makes that adjustment at the pro level, but for as much as we talk about injuries derailing development, I don't see how Hall's propensity for getting creamed can't be a factor in the decision. Or at least the debate.
ReplyDeleteI totally think its fair to include as a factor and I don't know if its possible for him to become more careful or not.
were there injury concerns about players like AO and tootoo when they came into the league? seems to me, hall is in that same category when he's busting through into a corner.
ReplyDeleteJfry: AO goes for the hits, he doesn't take them. And yes if you studied physics you know that's a whole different world.
ReplyDeleteJfry - You don't see Ovechkin getting blown up consistently. He's usually the guy running people over. Same with Tootoo.
ReplyDeleteToronto's 1st for next year would be just fine for me to trade down to #2 if they're getting the guy they want anyway.
ReplyDeleteAO goes for the hits, he doesn't take them. And yes if you studied physics you know that's a whole different world.
ReplyDeleteActually physics would argue that there is no difference between the hitting object and the receiving object. Both experience equal force. It's actually Newton's third law of motion.
However a kinesiologist might suggest that the prepared individual (the one initiating the hit) structures his body and tightens his muscles in such a way that the impact is absorbed well, whereas the unprepared individual experiences force in ways that is absorbed in more harmful ways (like smashing one's head into the boards).
Igina isn't a giant and he has played a pretty gritty game throughout his career without being injured frequently. Hall is the same size so it should be possible for him to do the same.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers selct Hall I'm not going to fret over his chance of being injured. It's a pretty tough thing to predict.
Bookie: Actually getting your feet set, or preparing yourself makes the difference (Regarding Physics) as it multiplies your resistance, as you loose some of the impact on friction.
ReplyDeleteAnd it makes a 2nd difference in:
Your target will usually absorb most of the chock if your the checker.
"Taylor Hall has ridiculous talent, no fear and a strong will to win. He's the best player available and should be taken number one overall."
ReplyDeleteAnd he will be.
To those "Close To The Oilers":
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers can't even keep a secret who they're drafting and their effing support staff are free to blab, and it goes against everyone who has any common sense let alone hockey intellect that Hall is the sublime choice, then
1: It's still the same old Lowe show after all, sans Doctor Death Craig MacTavish
2: The team literally either doesn't give a fuck what it's fanbase thinks, or doesn't know - both add up to more stench coming from this two decades long garbage.
Hunter:
ReplyDeleteDo you really think the Oilers have what the fanbase wants as a factor in deciding who to draft?
Also, one game isn't enough to throw away years of scouting.
After yesterday the idea of drafting Hall seems a better idea, but it's not the slam-dunk you think it is.
Remember, Hall's playing against younger/same age competition and Seguin was playing against older and more physical competition.
Really Hunter?
ReplyDeleteYou would give a hockey franchise grief if they didn't pick who the fanbase thought they should pick?
Those guys are turning over every rock to get this right and will have access to reams of info that we don't.
Also,
The guy making the pick may have found a Finnish Mike Greir in the 6th round.
I defer to The Magnificent Bastard Stu.
This team doesn't have enough Finns.
WG: It's understandable when Niko Kapanen and Jarkko Ruutu are on your national team.
ReplyDeleteLT:
ReplyDeleteThanks for stealing my "thunder" and re-using a variation of your quote on Ellis in last year's top 30, I had my eye on that!
Now it'll just look embarrassing and tired when I leave that in my Hall/Seguin post whenever I finish it up ;)
That's something we really need to recognize imo. There are all kinds of elements that go into evaluating players, among them lifestyle, background, etc.
ReplyDeleteI'm putting my faith in Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor and the scouting staff.
The last time the Oilers were a little wobbly at the draft table (Abney aside) was 2007 first round (imo) and the next season we started cooking with Stu.
The 1st pick might make or break MBS, but its the two rounders that will tell everything we'll need to know about him and the direction of this team. I really hope they don't reach for a player at that spot as I think there will be some nice players still kicking around at that point.
ReplyDeletespeeds: I always enjoy your draft stuff and am happy you have a similar view on the situation.
ReplyDeleteHave you heard about Woodlief and his recent love affair with the Finnish kid Granlund? Compared him to Saku Koivu on Stauffer's show this past week.
MacGregor had nice things to say about him too. I think he'll go early.
Granlund has like destroyed every record for a 17 year old in the FNL.
ReplyDeleteFPB: True, but comparing him to Koivu suggests a lot more than offense. Koivu was a leader, a team player and a difference maker all over the ice.
ReplyDeleteLT:
ReplyDeleteI e-mailed some questions to Stauffer for McGregor, a couple of which were answered. One of them was the question about Granlund.
I really like the sound of him as well LT. What's "early"? 5? 7?
LT: Yeah i know, but his numbers suggest he's at a whole other level (Offensively). Frankly if he's 6''1 i think he's the first pick overall.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing Granlund goes top 10, aomewhere after 5.
ReplyDeletespeeds: Right now, I have it:
ReplyDelete1. Hall (EDM)
2. Seguin (BOS)
3. Gormley (FLA)
4. Fowler (CBS)
5. Backlund (NYI)
I hope Hall wins Memorial Cup MVP to add to his trophy case. It just ups the price that Boston is going to offer to get him.
ReplyDeleteI believe that Boston wants Hall and the price keeps going up.
Backlund = Granlund?
ReplyDeleteAnyone speak swedish?
ReplyDeletehttp://hockey.expressen.se/vm/1.1988341/paajarvi-svensson-hyllas-av-messier
speeds: Yeah, shoot. :-)
ReplyDeleteI know zero swedish,I did put hyllas and av (from the headline) into an online translator.....hyllas translated as "being hailed" and av translated as "true". No time or interest to do whole article...
ReplyDeleteGoogle Translate is your friend, that and AstaVista BabelFish:
ReplyDeleteTitle: Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson Hailed By Messier
Photo Caption: Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson received praise from Messier
MANNHEIM. With a delicious kick start ?star?catalyst? Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, 19, Three Crowns. He is third in the scoring leaders in his first World Cup. And celebrated legend of Canada Mark Messier - "Pääjärvi seems to be an excellent player, " said Messier to HockeyExpressen.se.
Magnus Svensson-Pääjärvi has had a powerful breakthrough in the Ice Hockey World Championships. With a Goal and two assists in his World Cup debut against Norway.
In Latvia, he added to his totals after 31 seconds when he slid in by Latvia's defense and picked up 1-0 behind Edgars Masalskis.
- "Finish again," says Pääjärvi-Svensson, smiling.
- "I was damn psyched. I really wanted to play good hockey today and it was damn good to get it in the first draw and could show [the direct]. It was almost too good to be true."
Third in scoring leaders
Three goals and three assists in four World Cup matches. Canadians Ray Whitney (seven points) and John Tavares (six goals) leads the field.
Canada's general manager, Edmonton legend Mark Messier, has been sitting in the stands in the SAP Arena, and seen a player stand out in the Act Three crown.
- "They have many young players. Pääjärvi seems to be an excellent player, "said Messier to HockeyExpressen.se.
"Great honor"
When Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson heard about it, he burst into a smile.
- "You hear who it is. It's quite an honor. I feel honored, "said Pääjärvi-Svensson.
Mark Messier is looking forward to meeting with Team Sweden tomorrow evening.
- "There will be a good test for us. They have a stable team. The match against the Czech Republic was probably the best in the world cup in our group. We expect a tough match from Sweden, "said Messier.
Calle Johansson has also described Magnus as having "been brilliant" for Sweden. He's apparently regarded as some expert, and most likely the former NHL player who was a very good longtime Washington rearguard.
ReplyDeleteGoogle translation of that swedish article.
ReplyDeleteImpressive showing by Hall last night, carrying on from the OHL playoffs.
ReplyDeleteThe kid doesn't lack for courage that's for sure.
I like both of the kids and I think either will be a great pick.
BTW, saying that Seguin might end up being Legwand isn't really an argument. Hall could be Brett Lindros. They're teenagers playing against teenagers and the scouts are trying to project the players they will be ten years down the road. They might be busts. Saying that a guy migh tbe a bust - well try and come up with a better argument, eh?
And while Hall's performance has everyone begging for more let me throw another name at you. Jimmy Waite. Top notch junior goaltender who dominated in two straight WJCs, indeed he basically won one outright and would have done it twice if it weren't for the mess in Piestany.
According to pjo's logic a lot of GMs should have been castrated for not picking him. At least the Hawks did the right thing though and Jimmy will have the last laugh in his HHOF entrance speech.
Oh right ...
Also credit to PJO who was right by all accounts.
ReplyDeleteUm, have you been reading this thread? I'm not sure "all" means what you think it means.
No matter which player is taken, I'm sure the Oiler fanbase will be faithfully supportive and will refrain from knee-jerk criticism, and crystal ball hazing of the scouting department.
ReplyDeleteNor will there be any 20-20 hindsight castigations if it turns out 5 years down the road that we were unlucky with our pick. I expect to hear not one single "I told you so."
;oP
ReplyDeletespOILer: No question. We march in lock-step. :-)
ReplyDelete@fbp...you brought up physics? really? wow.
ReplyDeletemy suggestion is that guys like AO and tootoo pop at guy, so in that situation yesterday where hall took the fall into the boards, those two other players, now that they're full grown, would have knocked over the 220lbs defensemen. what i'm suggesting is that once hall grows into his full frame, he'll represent a much large human, combined with his speed which will result in him "popping" guys off the puck. like the two i mentioned.
argue whatever player you want, but i think we're talking about a kid who projects to be much bigger and stronger than he currently is at 18.
if i recall right, at AO's last WJC he was knocked silly because Canada scouts believed that he couldn't play through the rough stuff. Canada won that game and there were concerns about AO's ability to play a physical game. So, my question was, given those similar criticism about the player, were there at the time of AO's draft, concerns about his style of play and his ability to stand through it. AO wasn't always a bull.
physics...wow. make friends much?
- "I was damn psyched. I really wanted to play good hockey today and it was damn good to get it in the first draw and could show [the direct]. It was almost too good to be true."
ReplyDeleteHe might be the best damn prospect the Oilers have, and that includes 1 OV.
Considering the number of lawyers, engineers and folks who went to school with Newton on this board, I was kind of getting a kick out of a high schooler teaching us all physics.
ReplyDeleteOn an actually related note, isn't Hall's father a linebacker or something? If one could look him up on a football stats page somewhere you would probably get a good idea of what size he'll fill out to.
to my point, here are some quotes about AO at the same time:
ReplyDelete"On Ovechkin progression, Vladmir Yursivov was cautious when we talked to him in the Helsinki Arena Press Center on January 4th. "Ovechkin was recently a young boy, he is now a young man. The transition is not easy. It is not an easy period for him. We will have to wait a year or two before knowing what kind of player he is," observed Yursinov.
"
"
Captain and star forward Alexander Ovechkin played little in the second half of the game because of a shoulder injury. But given that Russia managed just two even-strength shots on goal through the first 30 minutes, it's doubtful whether a healthy Ovechkin would have made much difference. Like all the key Russian players, he was subjected to relentless physical punishment throughout.
"
AO put on 35 lbs after his draft date, taking him to 6'2", 235
Scott - Newton was a couple of years behind me. I courted his older sister.
ReplyDeleteI was just fantasizing about winning the 2011 lottery with Toronto's #1. Then using Burke's pick to draft Adam Larsson.
Seguin and Larsson.
I think I may have just had a MacGuire moment.
@scott
ReplyDeletehis dad was a receiver. i haven't been able to find his playing weight in the cfl.
"His father, Steve Hall, was a former CFL player in the 1980s. He played for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Toronto Argonauts in 1983. He finished his CFL career in 1985 with the Ottawa Rough Riders.[14]"
Scott: Well Physics' basics stay the same. Even if i'm in High School. Can't blame me for not being a lawyer cause i can't be at 16 ya know. But my 86% average ain't shabby either.
ReplyDeleteSteve Hall was a wideout.
ReplyDeleteBut just to be sure... Jfry what did you mean with your comment actually? (same with Scott)
ReplyDeleteJust that sons usually resemble their fathers.
ReplyDeleteBut a wideout is not a linebacker, so my hopes of an Ovechkin-like 235 for Hall might be reaching.
I don't think its a matter of him filling out his frame and adding 20lbs.
ReplyDeleteIts a matter of him repeatedly skating into dangerous areas with his head down and getting freight trained.
He'll never be as big as Brett Lindros and he got knocked out of the NHL playing that way.
So did his brother for that matter. He lasted longer and had a decent career, but it was shortened due to head injuries.
They are both behemoths compared to Hall. They check in at 6'4" and are a mile wide.
WG: It's a shame cause both Lindros boys could play the game, and Eric was elite in every sense of the word.
ReplyDeleteIt's just to bad that they both had those concussion problems, it's true they played with abandon, but it might also be something hereditary that predisposes them to a concussion susceptibility on top of that.
Uni: I believe Eric's thing was more getting repeatadly crushed by Scott Stevens and Darius Kasparitis.
ReplyDeleteSteve Hall played at 6'2" and 193 lbs. And was born in Australia, apparently.
ReplyDelete(Source: http://www.cflapedia.com/ - a really outstanding site put together by a really devoted fan.)
Sorry, 192 lbs; I'll be mashing the keyboard for my special dialling wand now.
ReplyDeleteSteve: You'd get corrected by his daily gain/loss anyway.
ReplyDeleteThat is an amazing site. I just spent a few minutes remembering Roy Bell and Jim Germany. Good times.
ReplyDeleteThat is an amazing site.
ReplyDeleteIt is. I discovered it a couple of years ago when I was (of all things) researching the Wikipedia biography of Don Getty, and since then I've plugged it wherever and whenever I could.
Just started Major League:
ReplyDelete''Here's a list of players we'll invite to TC.'' ''Most of these guys are passed theyr prime... most of these guys never had a prime!'' ''This guy is dead!''
''Well scratch him off the list''
Looks like the Oilers Management.
Holy shit! It's exactly like this year!
ReplyDeleteBest skater, best scorer, mosy dedicated player....... Hall
ReplyDeleteBest pound for pound fighter in NHL history is Wendell Clark....that appellation was also the reason for the end of his career. He checked, hit and fought everyone 25-35 lbs heavier. As a result his NHL career was 800 games long not 1250 or so. Wendell never saw a challenge he would not meet and as a result regularly played 45 games a season
have no clue if Hall is like that but ...wild ass reckless abandon for a player 200 lbs or less is a recipe for disaster
Jim Germany never dove over the pile when pushing the ball in from the 1.
ReplyDeleteHe just high stepped and floated over everyone and landed on his feet.
Warren Moon, Jim Germany, Waddell Smith, Brian Kelly, Tom Scott....they were fun to watch.
I was just a kid and those guys were like gods to me.
Season Opener tomorrow for junior baseball. The first true day of summer :). So eager to get that first SB!
ReplyDeleteBDHS said
ReplyDeleteBTW, saying that Seguin might end up being Legwand isn't really an argument. Hall could be Brett Lindros. They're teenagers playing against teenagers and the scouts are trying to project the players they will be ten years down the road. They might be busts. Saying that a guy migh tbe a bust - well try and come up with a better argument, eh?
No argument here. I think you missed my point, im not arguing anything, im saying a risk with Seguin is his value is based somewhat on projection. He may be a better player in 5 years than Hall, but he IMO isnt today.
The problem with projection is that youre dealing with small sample sizes, and as in the case of Legwand, had a fantastic draft year with Plymouth, scoring identical stats as Seguin did this year. Slightly better even.
So no, im not saying Seguin = Legwand, not at all. I am saying that if theres a risk in picking Seguin, that its hes being taken first on the merits of 5 years from now, not because hes the better player right now.
Danny: Legwand had no prior high calibre record. Seguin does.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just me, but I'd rather have an elite talent for 800 games than a good one for 1200.
ReplyDeleteFPB: Seguin doesnt have an extensive track record. 60 games, 1.0ppg, versus Hall whos been outscored Tylers 17 yr season at age 16.
ReplyDeleteI think scouting has progressed since the 1998 draft. So projecting Seguin may well be more reliable than the 98 Preds.
I have faith in MB Stu. I do confess however that it makes me uneasy passing over Hall, for less of a sure thing.
Danny: Seguin started at 4RW with Plymouth as a 16 year old. By the time he turned 17 in January of 2009, he was moved to the middle and he went on a significant goal streak, scoring 15 goals and 33 points in 17 games.
ReplyDeleteHe then went on to score 5 goals and 16 points in 11 playoff games, including 5 points in 6 games against the Spitfires - a big part of why the Whalers pushed the Spits further than any other OHL team that year.
His next move was at Ivan Hlinka, where he was the best player in the entire tournament. From there, he started gaining the press as a potential challenger for #1.
A month into his season he had 27 points in 11 games (including 15 goals) and ingratiated himself completely into those talks.
So, yes, he did have a track record. The difference, I suppose, is that Hall's track record resembles Tavares.
Next year, they'll be talking about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a guy who could supplant Couturier or Larsson as the #1 prospect. RNH had a season similar to Seguin's 16 year old season.
"Ryan Nugent-Hopkins"
ReplyDeleteThe guy reminds me a lot of Kyle Turris at the same age. Very shifty with an excellant wrist shot. It will all depend on if he can make that next important step in his junior career, I'm sure he'll get every chance to do so in Red Deer.
MR: no doubt, Seguin had a nightmare start to his rookie season. And tore it up after that, and elevated himself to the #1 spot.
ReplyDeleteHes had an epic rise since his first 30 or 40 games... albeit the fact that those 30+ were a mere 70 or 80 games ago.
Toss in the fact that he didnt make the WJC team, and scoreless in the entire Windsor/Plymouth series, you must admin the guys record isnt bullet-proof.
I'm in no way anti-seguin for the record. I'll be happy with whatever MB picks.
Issues with both guys AFAICS:
ReplyDeleteHall: injury potential, ES goal scoring, rich man's Brule at the NHL level?
Seguin: lack of WJC invite (crazy decision), stats padded by ice-time, has not really stepped it up when in the spotlight, Legwand at the NHL level?
You really can make a case to go either way - and if that's the deal - then if BOS offers something good you certainly think about it.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYou have to respect that. Call it stones, lack of intelligence or instinct, but guys with exceptional talent AND lack of far in high collision areas are as rare as hen's teeth.
ReplyDeleteBecause they have a high probability of winding up eating through a straw. Put it another way: the stats guys will point to Cammalleri shooting 25% through two rounds as an example of luck in hockey. I'll posit that taking that hit and not being gone for the tournament is a massive piece of luck. He could've suffered any of six different injuries on that play.
However a kinesiologist might suggest that the prepared individual (the one initiating the hit) structures his body and tightens his muscles in such a way that the impact is absorbed well, whereas the unprepared individual experiences force in ways that is absorbed in more harmful ways (like smashing one's head into the boards).
Yes, one would. ;) One would also add that the initiator also has the benefit of being able to target the point of impact such that they're hitting a less supported structure (e.g. head which is down) with a well-supported structure (e.g. the aforementioned braced shoulder).
Pitfall #2 is Seguins potential to be David Legwand or Kyle Turris redux.
Really? Kid gets rushed to the NHL, fails miserably, gets sent back to the AHL where he belongs for a single year, and he's David Legwand? Doncha think the jury's maybe out a little still?
I'm almost a native Swedish speaker, so here's the article as understood by a Dane:
ReplyDeleteMagnus Pääjärvi-Svensson has been a real break-through player at the World Hockey Championships. A goal and two assists in his debut vs. Norway.
Against Latvia, he struck again, 31 seconds in, when he slid through the Latvian defense and deposited the 1-0 goal behind Edgars Masalskis.
- Another goal,says Pääjärvi-Svensson and smiles.
- I was really fired up. I really wanted to play good hockey today, and it was fantastic to score in my first shift, to be able to walk through them. Almost too good to be true.
Third in points
Three goals and three assists in four games at the Worlds. Canadians Ray Whitney (7) and John Tavares (6 goals) are ahead of him.
The Canadian GM, Edmonton legend Mark Messier, has frequented the stands in the SAP Arena, and seen one player above the others, in the Tre Kronor squad.
- They have a lot of young players on their team. Pääjärvi comes across as an excellent one, Messier commented to HockeyExpressen.se.
Big honor
When we told Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson that, he cracked another smile.
- Considering who said it; that's quite an honor, says Pääjärvi-Svensson.
Mark Messier looks forward to tomorrow night's game against Tre Kronor
- It will be a good test for us. They have a very steady team. Their game against the Czechs was probably the best yet in our group. We expect Sweden to put up quite a fight, says Messier.
Scary Sunday morning Matheson suggestion: Hemsky, Penner and possibly Cogliano for Malkin is what he implies might be worth investigating.
ReplyDeleteI think it's stupid, and I fear it's something that Katz will think is a GREAT idea.
Just say no to whale hunts.
d2k: Well the guy has classmates ready to get their 2nd NHL contracts, and he hasnt hit 1ppg in the AHL.
ReplyDeleteHe has to be considered a disappointment thus far. If he does carve a Legwand career out, thats still a nice career. Maybe hes a future allstar, but he sure isn't tracking like one right now. Dollars to donuts that hes a significantly later pick in a redraft.
HBomb: No worries, none of Matheson's trade speculations ever have any bearing in fact. He just makes shit up.
ReplyDeleteThe way I sorta view this. Seguin is a good player... but from what I've seen of Hall, he's better, right now. He'll be more NHL ready sooner, and he has higher upside.
ReplyDeleteYou don't draft for need with the #1 pick, and to me thats exactly what the Oilers would be doing if they took Seguin #1. You draft the BPA. He might get injured (Although he has no history of it), maybe he does have a shorter career.... but then again. Maybe something happens to Seguin in his second season that ends his career. You just flat out don't know.
The BPA is Hall. So you go with Hall. Seguin's a fantastic player, but he's just not as good right now.
HBomb: No worries, none of Matheson's trade speculations ever have any bearing in fact. He just makes shit up.
ReplyDeleteHe sure has slid downhill from a decade ago (i.e. Sather era) when he was THE source. Now, he's a level above Garrioch/Eklund, which isn't saying much.
I worry that Katz reads his article and thinks "hey, that's a GREAT idea!"
Matty does some good stuff, but trade rumours aren't his strong suit.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest concern with Hall is that he plays this way and gets hammered in junior a lot.
ReplyDeleteIt's not going to be easier for him as an 18 year old in the NHL, so that's a bit of a red flag for me.
stats padded by ice-time
ReplyDeleteAO, I don't think that is true at all.
One of the HF posters took a stopwatch to several of Seguin's games and he was in at around 23 minutes per game... not that abnormal in junior hockey for top players.
dawgbone:But how many of Hall's games ended like the one Friday night, where he plays 12 shifts in the first period and then 9 in the next two because the Spits are destroying their sub-par opponents and he's already picked up 2 goals (and been on the ice for 4)?
ReplyDeleteI agree with LT. Hall has that extra bit of something that makes players champions. He is obviously the smart money pick. Taking Seguin would be the biggest mistake in franchise history and who knows where it or the team could go from there.
ReplyDelete