Monday, May 24, 2010

Hiishawk, Steblick. Steblick, Hiishawk

This is Ryan Johansen. He is projected to go in the first round of this year's entry draft by just about everyone, and he's come from a long way back.

I follow the NHL draft closely, have since the mid-1970's. This isn't something to brag about (chicks don't dig the nerds) but as time rolled on (and Al Gore used that great big brain of his to invent the internet. Look out global warming, your ass is grass) I've found more and more "draftniks" out there. I guess it is no weirder than making civil war models or tuning a car by ear (my Dad could do it back in the day) and honestly there are some pretty smart cookies out there who have the same (or similar) hobby.

Just about the coolest people in the world to the draftnik are actual scouts. I imagine them to be men near my age who drive great big cars that rumble low to the ground and require equal amounts of motoroil and draft report cards in the trunk. They must drive a lot, so lets hope they have good taste in music and enjoy time alone.

I've talked to a few scouts over the years, spent time with people like John Short who had the ear (and vice versa) of men like Barry Fraser and have spent decades collecting scouting reports. Seriously. I can tell you that most hockey scouting reports are exceptionally accurate 10 years after, and that prospects are far less predictable than they were when scouts could draft them at 20 (instead of 18) years-old.

Let me introduce Hiishawk. Or Steblick. Or whatever his actual name is. In his latest post (about the 2010 draft, I'll link in a minute) he suggests people might "remember me as someone who has been deeply involved in hockey (scouting at various levels- including NHL, officialdom), has connections and generally knows what he's talking about. Call me a very poor man's Bob Mckenzie."

That's not really the case. McKenzie is my favorite hockey personality and a guy I've read since his Hockey News column 25 (or more) years ago, but tsn's number one expert gathers information from scouts and presents a compiled list based on the scouts input.

Hiishawk gives us a scouts eye view of the process and in his final update each season gives you a real idea about what the scouting community thinks about a player. He's not McKenzie, he's not Gare Joyce. He's the real thing. An actual expert. The best way I can describe Hiishawk is that he's Kyle Woodlief without the marketing. No less valuable, but probably cooler because he's obscure.

A few items from the past that might be of interest to Oilers fans:

  • Steblick 2004: Rob Schremp- Can’t ignore all-world skill package.
  • Steblick 2004: Devan Dubnyk- Has been inconsistent but size, raw skill are undeniable.
  • Hiishawk 2005: Andrew Cogliano- I have doubts as to how his flash will translate to the NHL.
  • Hiishawk 2005: Slava Trukhno- Gotta love the skill and enthusiasm.
  • Hiishawk 2006: Peckham- Intense, ferocious and colorful player. He can be scary- for his own team too!
  • Hiishawk 2008: Wahl and Eberle- remember when WHL players were stereotyped as tough, slow skating grinder types? Well, if you look at those two plus Boychuk and Ennis and the old stereotype goes right out the window.

He's back (I didn't see anything for 2009) again this year and the very entertaining post is here. It is worth the read, and his take on Johansen, Granlund and Merrill are unique viewpoints. That's why he's so cool.

39 comments:

  1. Pro scouts sound like Fast Eddie Felson from The Color of Money.

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  2. Am i the only one that thinks the fact Niderreiter couldn't put up PPG and him being a projected top 10, and popularity increase due to his country waves a red flag?

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  3. I haven't seen nearly enough of anyone else to comment, but his assessments of Granlund and Pulkkinen are spot-on, even if he misspelled Mikael's first name.

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  4. A comment from Hiishawk farther down the thread:

    Hall has built up too much of a public profile for the Oliers not to take him. And the all-around performance (gutsy!) we've seen thus far at the Memorial Cup should have put the icing on the cake.

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  5. Anyone else thinks it would be great if the European hockey countries associated to make an ''European Junior League''.

    It would greatly recude the issues NHL teams have with European players, since they wouldn't be locked to theyr teams anymore. + It would permit us to see some new Memorical Cup including Euros.

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  6. Am i the only one that thinks the fact Niderreiter couldn't put up PPG and him being a projected top 10, and popularity increase due to his country waves a red flag?

    I'm pretty sure his popularity is due to the fact that buddy can score and is a full ten months younger than a guy like Hall and only playing his first season in junior.

    Some team is going to feel stupid if they grab him and he doesn't improve in two years, but it's pretty likely he doesn't run in place.

    I don't know a damn thing about scouting, but he has some great tools and arrows pointing in the right direction. If we moved some pieces and managed to get a pick to grab him with I wouldn't be remotely unhappy.

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  7. El Nino is going to be a solid pick for someone. That birth date has to weigh heavily in his favour. I doubt we can swing a pick in the range though, Quain.

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  8. From Kevin Paul Dupont's (Boston's Matty) column in Sunday's Boston Globe:

    "It is no secret that Taylor Hall (left), the dynamic 18-year-old left wing, would be the best fit for the Bruins, considering his promise of an immediate impact and Boston’s strength up the middle in David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Marc Savard. Trouble is, even though Hall is ranked No. 2 by the NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau, it would raise few eyebrows if Edmonton, which owns the first overall pick, trained its sights on Hall instead of Tyler Seguin. The Bruins could guarantee their crack at Hall by trading for the No. 1 pick. But that’s something that hasn’t taken place since 2003, with clubs being wary of dealing such an asset. That year, Florida traded the first overall selection (it would be Marc-Andre Fleury) and the No. 73 pick (the hated Dan Carcillo) to Pittsburgh. In return, the Penguins gave up the No. 3 pick (Nathan Horton), the No. 55 selection (Stefan Meyer), and Mikael Samuelsson, a 26-year-old already in his third organization (San Jose, Rangers, Pittsburgh). Using that trade as a model, a current-day equivalent would be for the Bruins to send the Oilers the No. 2 overall pick, a second-rounder, and Blake Wheeler for the first pick and a third-rounder. Certainly something to think about if the Bruins are sure Hall is their man and that Edmonton GM Steve Tambellini feels the same way."

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  9. Wheeler = Samuelsson?

    Samuelsson had only recorded a 6 and a 10 goal season (the 6 as a 25 yo) at that point, and was a 5th rounder. That's not the same as a guy who has scored 21 and 18 (as a 22 yo) after being drafted 5th overall.

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  10. Shhhhhh. As long as they think they're equal keep it hush hush spoiler.

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  11. The Boston media seemed to sour on Wheeler a bit this season. And they're a team with a history of giving up on players too soon, so you never know. Dupont's a HOFer like Matty so he could be just throwing sh*t against the wall. But he is connected like Matty too, so there's always a chance that he knows something.

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  12. While the media might not be happy with Wheeler, they don't get to make the trades.
    ;o)

    I doubt the Bruins management is so unhappy they'd trade his ass. They're probably very happy about the lower cap hit he's gonna get as an RFA.

    Sure, they'd like him to play a more physical game, hit some shit, but he has too much upside I think to trade just to get the chance to split hairs between Hall and Seguin.

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  13. I think the most likely scenario is the one to which LT occasionally alludes...

    Oilers swap 31 for Boston's 22nd, for passing on Hall (they retain #1). Oilers draft McIlrath at 22.

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  14. I'm sick of this team doing one illogical thing after another, then the fans all start rationalising why each particular bonehead moves make sense.

    Methinks it's Lowe emulating his mentor(Slats) but without Slats' earlier genius. Something a whole lot more than that, actually.

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  15. I'd rather have Troy Rutkowski of the Winter Hawks if we get the 22nd pick. Not small (6,01 220) and put up 43 points this season.

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  16. Boston's going to be disappointed when the Oilers pick Hall.

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  17. Mike Richards is apparently a Jedi and has mastered the force... that was amazing.

    Flashbacks to G4 against the Sharks.

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  18. hunter:

    is there absolutely any scenario in which you think the oilers should take seguin?

    i'm all for drafting hall over seguin. i personally think he's the better player and you draft the best player available, not the best potential available.

    but if boston is crazy for hall, and willing to do something crazy in order to get him, i think that's something to consider.

    swapping 31st for 22nd isn't enough for me, but i can conceive some offers that might work.

    i think the oilers should make a "crazy" counteroffer, and - if the bruins don't bite - draft hall.

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  19. This game makes me think of the late 90's.

    Hooking and Obstruction kingdom.

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  20. striatic,

    The Bruins aren't going to give us 22nd because they have plans for that pick. According to Kyle Woodlief they want a dman with that pick and the best fit, ironically, is Dylan McIlrath.

    Boston also wouldn't want to give us a first this year or next, it is bad optics, and their fans are a bit testy at the moment, after the collapse. They also aren't going to give up Blake Wheeler for so little. They know he could be a dominant player for years to come, whatever the local press in Boston has to say. He is also going to be relatively cheap.

    The questions then become what might they give up and would we want what they are prepared to offer. It seems reasonable to think they'd give us Zach Hamill who was drafted #8 overall but has struggled. They might, if the stars aligned and they really wanted Hall, give us Joe Colborne. That, I'm convinced is about as good as it gets.

    Is it good enough?

    My insane counter offer, by the way, would be we lay off Hall and throw in Cogliano. They give us Wheeler, Colborne, and Hamill.

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  21. I'm sick of this team doing one illogical thing after another, then the fans all start rationalising why each particular bonehead moves make sense.

    You do realize that it is you who is advocating that the Oilers select the guy ranked #2.

    When pro-scouts are mixed on the order of #1 and #2 prospects you cannot call it rationalizing - you can call it difference of opinion.

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  22. Boston might want Seguin and are doing the big sell on Hall to try and sway the Oilers to pick him.

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  23. Ole, ole ole ole ole ole, no more, stupid soccer songs, ole, ole ole ole ole, enjoy, the golf.

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  24. PDO: Yeah. So how are those fields? I heard you've been playing them for 3 months now.

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  25. Yup.

    And we have exactly as much hardware as you.

    Plus a better tan.

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  26. FPV,

    Not sure why you're so sour. Be confident that Gainey won't do anything this offseason to ruin your championship caliber team.

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  27. I'm not sure what happened but all of the sudden it seems the Oilogosphere has hit the rag at the same time. I guess thats what happesn when news comes to a screeching halt. Everybody seems quite bitter.

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  28. Dupont is Boston's Matheson?
    You mean he steals all his copy from the wire, introduces a quote from Bruce McGregor, c/w spelling mistakes, adds ... and slaps his byline on it?
    That's impressive.

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  29. I for one am glad that the conspiracy against Montreal is over. No more American-biased phantom calls against the Habs, and no more fans of other teams refusing to be forced to jump on the Montreal bandwagon.

    Ole ole.

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  30. Not sure why you're so sour. Be confident that Gainey won't do anything this offseason to ruin your championship caliber team.

    I'm pretty sure Gainey won't be making any changes to the Habs this off season, what with him not being GM and all.

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  31. LF: Shit. Now we have to call Klowe about that!

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  32. The Oilers would really benefit from a Dman like Pronger. Any chance of a whale hunt this summer?

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  33. LF:

    Pretty sure there is a Tambo-KLowe vibe coming out of the MTL organization. When Gainey stepped down as GM he stayed on as a team "adviser". I think it can be said with confidence that he still has influence over roster moves, particularly with the Habs' postseason 'success'.

    Bob Gainey's ties to Habs still strong

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  34. Kinger: I'l believe that when Halak gets traded.

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  35. Pretty sure there is a Tambo-KLowe vibe coming out of the MTL organization. When Gainey stepped down as GM he stayed on as a team "adviser". I think it can be said with confidence that he still has influence over roster moves, particularly with the Habs' postseason 'success'.


    Yeah, I imagine a guy who spent his playing career and the last six years with the organization would have strong ties with it today. But there's no comparison with the Lowe/Tambo situation: "adviser" is a little bi more informal and ill-defined than "President of Hockey Operations". Ferfuckssake, Gainey isn't even listed as part of the management team.

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  36. to get Hall, wheeler is definitely available this summer. Their top 6 would be Bergeron, Rechi, krejci, Savard, Lucic, and Hall.

    Wheeler is probably looking for 3 mill and that is too much for a 3rd liner.

    I still think the deal is Boston's first + Seguin for Hall. Maybe Wheeler for Cogs to balance the optics.

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  37. striatic:

    When you have what amounts to a once in a lifetime opportunity to draft the obviously best teenaged player in the world coming out of junior, why in the world do you want to go out of your way to not take him?

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