That`s John Tavares in the Knights uniform and Taylor Hall just over a year ago (OHL Skills competition). This photo shows us just how much size and strength can change a player in one calendar year.
In late June of last year I did a top 30 list and last month I ran a Desjardins NHLE for some of the top ranked shooters and defenders.
Since we are focused heavily on the draft this year, I thought it might be a good idea to do a top 30 earlier. My final list will still appear draft week, but this is one fan's look (with a big hello from our friend math) at the top 30 players for the 2010 entry draft.
I also think it is a good idea because Redline is nearing their final stages which really helps get a feel for each draft. The latest installment is here. Woolief's item on Granlund moved him up on my list (from 5 to 4).
A couple of final notes: this is a fan blog, I haven't seen many of these kids and have zero idea what a scout looks for in terms of projection. I have a good knowledge of draft history and do know that performance at age 17 is an monumental "tell" for these kids. Desjardins NHLE has a major impact on my list and there are bias problems (the Finns get a free ride and I do favor the Canadian junior leagues) but hopefully it'll be fun. Please add your comments, that's what makes the blog go.
- L Taylor Hall: Franchise player. The next Stamkos?
- C Tyler Seguin: Franchise player. The next Toews?
- D Brandon Gormley: The most complete D in the draft.
- C Mikael Granlund: The next Saku Koivu. Smart player.
- D Cam Fowler: Exceptional puck mover.
- C Ryan Johansen: Enormous damage at even-strength.
- C Austin Watson: 2-way player underrated.
- R Vladimir Tarasenko: Terrific offensive talent.
- R Jeff Skinner: Talented scorer.
- R Nino Niederreiter: Best PF in this year's draft.
- D Erik Gudbranson: Big, tough D plays a smart game.
- C Quinton Howden: Big C with a wide range of skills.
- R Emerson Etem: A good skater with size and skill.
- R Brett Connolly: Outstanding skills, hip a big concern.
- D Dylan McIlrath: Big, tough, physical. Shutdown D.
- C Tyler Tiffoli: Skill player posted good numbers.
- C Charlie Coyle: Size/speed/skill.
- D Derek Forbort: Scouts confirm a complete skill set.
- L Brad Ross: Big strong grinder with some skill.
- L Nick Bjugstad: Big PF, more an Eastern conference F.
- C Alex Burmistrov: Skilled Russian, brilliant with the puck.
- G Jack Campbell: He'll go higher than this.
- C Jaden Schwartz: A wide range of skills.
- L John McFarland: Skill winger with excellent speed.
- C Tyler Pitlick: Already developing as a 2-way C.
- C Brock Nelson: Minnesota high school power-forward.
- C Evgeny Kuznetsov: Playmaking Russian.
- G Calvin Pickard: Big improvement year over year.
- L Kirill Kabanov: Lanky scorer, off-ice issues.
- C Ryan Spooner: Might be higher if he remained healthy.
good list, but i doubt Brad Ross will go in the 1st round. he'll probably go in the high to mid 2nd.
ReplyDeleteyou are missing this guy called Greg Mckegg. He is not undersized at 6 feet 90 pounds. Turns 18 only a week before the draft. he put up 37-48-85 in 67 games this season. If this guy is available for our 2nd round pick, I will want us to pick him up in a jiffy
ReplyDelete"you are missing this guy called Greg Mckegg. He is not undersized at 6 feet 90 pounds."
ReplyDeleteThe scouts I've talked to said he needs to add about 100 pounds.
I don't think McKegg goes in the first round. Here's an item on him:
ReplyDeletehttp://bruins2010draftwatch.blogspot.com/2010/05/someone-you-should-know-greg-mckegg.html
Dug: Just so we're clear, this isn't me trying to name the top 30 picks thi draft. Bob McKenzie does that better than anyone else could dream of every draft week.
ReplyDeleteThese are the 30 players I think are the best, well 28 and two goalies thrown in because someone will take Campbell.
So I'm not saying Brad Ross will go in the first round, I'm saying that I would pick him in the first round.
Did you forget Jon Merrill or do you just not like him?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/kabanov-trying-to-put-career-back-on-track/article1572354/
ReplyDeleteWhen I read this I have this scene running through my head.
How come you don't like me?
Because you don't respect yourself, which is your problem. But you don't respect the game, and that's my problem. You got a gift.
I got a what?
You got a gift. When you were a baby, the Gods reached down and turned your right arm into a thunderbolt. You got a Hall-of-Fame arm, but you're pissing it away.
I ain't pissing nothing away. I got a Porsche already; a 911 with a quadrophonic Blaupunkt.
Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.
Traktor: He's just outside my top 30, along with people like Pysyk, Jarnkrok and Tinordi. I also like Weal.
ReplyDeleteI've never seen him play but apparently he was by far the best defensemen in the u18's.
ReplyDeletesure, Lowetide, and i love the way Ross plays so i can see your point. i would have Red Deer Rebel d-man Alex Petrovic in the bottom of the 1st round, because i believe he'll be a good pro one day, but most might not have him there.
ReplyDelete@lowetide
ReplyDeleteI dont think he will go in the 1st round either. But with players like Brad Ross in ur ranking i thought you were going against conventional ranking.
I done think Ross ends up in 1st round either
SumOil: I'm definitely going against traditional ranking. I like McKegg after the first round but he certainly posted good numbers.
ReplyDeleteIs it me or are the 7th and 8th place Flyers Habs playing the worst semifinals hockey I've ever seen?
ReplyDeletesome actually have the small, but high end scorer Jordan Weal of the Regina Pats in the low first round, so i believe anyone from Ross to Weal to Petrovic or McKegg could go in the lower 1st round.
ReplyDeletethe problem with weal is that despite a very small stature, he doesnt have impressive speed to make up for it.
ReplyDeleteBut he has dynamite hands.
ReplyDeleteJudging by the many many lists I have seen over the last month, the Oilers are going to get a very nice player at 31, and if lucky, will also get one with Nashville's pick. With your list LT, I'd zone in on Petrovic or Merill.
ReplyDeleteTraktor: He's just outside my top 30, along with people like Pysyk, Jarnkrok and Tinordi. I also like Weal.
ReplyDeleteIf Tinordi is there at 31, I hope the Oilers pounce - I've heard a lot of good things.
And whomever wins this eastern series is going to be lucky to win a single game in the final.
Right on cue - Asham gets pushed over Halak and gets a goalie interference penalty. What's that about "always a PP when they need it", Lowetide? Go Flyers.
good point, DangerMan....we have the luxury of picking 4 times in the top 61, in yet another deep draft, so chances are we will get at least a few more promising players after we draft Hall/Seguin.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised you have Connolly at 14.
ReplyDeleteAt 6'2 190lb as a 18 year old, and the first 16 year old to score 30 in the WHL since Marleau, I pick him higher.
His hip problem can become chronic, but its also very treatable, mostly by strengthening core muscles so the hip flexor muscles don't become overworked.
With professional, world class trainers and physiotherapists (therefore the Oilers should stay away from him should they acquire another high pick) a patient team could get the steal of the draft if he goes outside the top 10.
Woodguy: A hip problem can be a long term item, plus there's a concussion on his resume. I think there's legit concern about him.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: With respect, that same team could just as if not more easily end up with another O'Marra - an injury prone bust.
ReplyDeleteMy 2nd round pick for the Oilers is Kevin Hayes
ReplyDeleteCoke machine: Check, he stands at 6'2 200lbs
Skill: Check, he had 70 points in 3o games. (Although it was highschool)
Smarts: Check, he is going to Boston College next year.
Looks like the perfect cerebral coke machine with some skill
I'll take him with pick 31
L.T. & Hunter,
ReplyDeleteAll very true.
I do love a gamble.
Injuries can be a real bitch.
Just ask Marc Andre Pouliot.
If his core muscles are under developed and he doesn't have PCS I might take a chance. A solid core takes the stress off the flexors and I get him some high end specific training starting June 26 and send him back to PG.
Eberle named CHL player of the year.
ReplyDeleteHunter - I was talking to my Dad last night and he called the Eastern final 'shinny', the worst hockey he's ever seen.
ReplyDeleteIf Philly or the Habs win the Cup it would be the biggest upset in history, imo. The weaker team sometimes wins but the difference is staggering between east and west.
WG: Was it intetional to call him Marc-André instead of Marc-Antoine?
ReplyDeleteI think the Rangers are picking up Kabanov.
Woodguy said...
ReplyDeleteEberle named CHL player of the year.
Which gives you about a 50 percent chance of having an NHL career.
2009–10 Jordan Eberle, Regina Pats
2008–09 Cody Hodgson, Brampton Battalion
2007–08 Justin Azevedo, Kitchener Rangers
2006–07 John Tavares, Oshawa Generals
2005–06 Alexander Radulov, Quebec Remparts
2004–05 Sidney Crosby, Rimouski Océanic
2003–04 Sidney Crosby, Rimouski Océanic
2002–03 Corey Locke, Ottawa 67's
2001–02 Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Chicoutimi Saguenéens
2000–01 Simon Gamache, Val-d'Or Foreurs
1999–2000 Brad Richards, Rimouski Océanic
1998–99 Brian Campbell, Ottawa 67's
1997–98 Sergei Varlamov, Swift Current Broncos
1996–97 Alyn McCauley, Ottawa 67's
1995–96 Christian Dube, Sherbrooke Castors
1994–95 David Ling, Kingston Frontenacs
1993–94 Jason Allison, London Knights
1992–93 Pat Peake, Detroit Junior Red Wings
1991–92 Charles Poulin, St-Hyacinthe Laser
1990–91 Eric Lindros, Oshawa Generals
LT:
ReplyDeleteHF poster Hiishawk posted a 40 1st round candidates thread on HF, probably worth a read for those into this stuff:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=778942
1992–93 Pat Peake, Detroit Junior Red Wings
ReplyDeletePouliot has nothing on Mr. Peake when it comes to injuries. How exactly does someone break a heel?
Deano: Sad cause he had a career there.
ReplyDeleteFairly weird how everyone on that list is almost unanimously a complete bust or an all-star, with very few of them ending up in the middle.
ReplyDeletePDO: A good bunch of the busts got injured, or exploded the AHL and never got an extended try in the Bigs.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that jumps out at me about that list of CHL Player of the Year is that winning it after your draft year doesn't mean nearly as much as before your draft year.
ReplyDeleteOnly 5 players (Locke, PM Bouchard, Lindros, Crosby and Tavares) won it pre draft.
Kinda thins out the top end of that talent pool.
Are we getting too excited about Eberle's year?
I like Weal for a top-30 pick. After Seguin and Hall he was the best scorer in major junior this year.
ReplyDeleteWell, the one guy we know the Oil won't be taking at #31 is Jordan Weal. It was a pretty quick "No" when Stauffer fielded him that question.
ReplyDeleteLove Watson tons. He's one of those guys I would trade up for.
If Pysyk truly does fall to 31, I feel they'd take him over any of the Americans (past Forbort) and guys like Petrovic and Tinordi.
Interesting that Seguin mentioned in that interview that he told everyone prior to the OHL draft that he was going to play in the NCAAs.
ReplyDeleteWhen exactly did that plan change?
Edmonton boy TROY RUTKOWSKI. I like him in the second round or hopefully the third and ANDREW YOGAN as well. I hope those 2nd and 3rd round pay off for the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteNice goal by MPS. Against Germany, granted, but still.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI've been really impressed with the way Omark has played in this WHC. I really like the complete and the way he is tough on the puck, especially in the corners and behind the net. He uses his body to bump the defender to create space. Only if our other smallish players would do the same. I think Omark has a really good chance of making it on the Oilers roster next year, either straight out of training camp or as a callup from OKC.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've seen of Omark in this WHC is similar, but I'm worried about his ability, or willingness, to play the game beyond the offensive zone.
ReplyDeleteAlso seems like a player that'll get punished on the smaller ice surface.
The problem is going to be quality of play away from the puck and consistency. Robert Nilsson has nights where you think he's an all-star, but he has never been able to bring it a high percentage of the time.
ReplyDeleteOmark looks good here, but he is what he is; imo MPS is the player to watch here, since he's 18 years old and has some ceiling.
Next year will be skinners and mckeggs 18 year old season. They are 6 months clear of season start.
ReplyDeleteHall had his 17 year old season two years ago.
08-09 63gm 38G 52A 90 Pts
Mckegg:
09-10 67GM 37G 48A 85Pt
Skinner:
09-10 64Gm 50G 40A 90PT
Uh! yeah!
Math: friend or foe?
ReplyDeleteHow can Hall be "The next Stamkos" if Stamkos hasn't even played 4 years yet????? More like the next Ryan Smyth.
ReplyDelete