- Boxcars: 19gp, 3.57
- SP: .889
- WLT: 4-10-2
- SP behind starter: .020
- Cap hit (capgeek): $700,000 (rfa)
- What do these numbers tell us? His boxcars are poor, the worst of the rookie goaltenders who played 1,000 or more minutes this season. His overall EV SP (.902) is close to JDD's (.905) and his late-season performance was very good. In his final 10 games Dubnyk's SP was .912 overall.
- How could these numbers be better? He needed to perform at the level of his final 10 games, but we didn't get to see it. There's no real conclusion we can draw from these numbers, except to say we all "saw him good" at the end of the season and he appears to be a more substantial goalie than JDD.
- What about a trade? Steve Tambellini has stated that the club doesn't want to go through another season of 3 goalies, so something will need to be done. I'm not sure how many Oiler fans prefer DD over JDD, but Dubnyk made believers out of a lot of people down the stretch.
- Could he start in front of Khabibulin? I don't think it'll happen this year.
- How important is he to the organization? He might be very important. The Oilers have not developed a quality goaltender from draft day through NHL career since Moog and Fuhr.
- What about Asiaoil? Among regular posters at Lowetide, Asiaoil has earned the reputation of being a solid on the goalies. In a thread below, AO posted his opinion:
- Dubnyk is 2 years younger than JDD and is significantly further along in terms of development than JDD was at the same age.
- After a rough initial period of getting used to the NHL game after his first call up (common for young goalies) he outplayed the more experienced JDD down the stretch.
- SPR was decent with Dubnyk who they relied on a lot and was absolutely awful without him. A
- Athletic goalies with bad technique look like JDD - occasionally spectacular but having a tendency to regularly let in a soft goal. Making the big save is not however what keeps you employed in the NHL - it's eliminating the softies which cost wins. Although he is not as athletic - Dubnyk's technique is way better than JDDs who still has frighteningly big holes in his game. NHL goaltending is about consistency and that is something that JDD has never shown anywhere in his pro resume.
- It's no contest - you keep DD and give him 30 starts next years with a vet to continue his development. The latter part of the season showed that DD has potential - whether that potential is realized is another issue - but we already know JDD's upside is backup NHL goalie and should not waste any more development time (and wins) on that.
Performance in 2009-10: 19gp, 3.57 .889
Projected Role in 2009-10: NHL backup goalie
i'm very interested to see which of the 2 (JDD or DD) the Oilers elect to keep for this coming season. i doubt both will be on the NHL roster.
ReplyDeletei do think 1 will be this coming years backup though.
ReplyDeleteAgree with AsiaOil on her assesment. Move one, have the other play 20-30 games. I just don't think Bulin will be healthy enough to play 50 games. I hope the Oilers move him somehow and get a solid vet to play with DD. Do not have him play more then 30 games, it'll break him (as evidenced by JDD. He may have had a solid year if he only played 35 games, but the extra games killed him and may have hurt his development for good).
ReplyDeleteI think the play here is to keep both, send them both down to the farm and hope like hell you lose JDD. If both make it past waivers, trade JDD and let DD run with OKC and see if he dominates.
ReplyDeleteYou can get an NHL backup on the cheap. I'd like to see DD work on his consistency and stamina somewhere else. If this is a long term investment, let's treat DD like one. Does anyone think a 24 year old goalie starting 60+ games at the AHL level is bad?
This all hinges on Khabby mind you. LT, I'm wondering, given all of Tambo's recent bluster about doing things the right way, draft and developement, blah, blah, blah ... how much of the Khabby signing would you put to Mr.Katz's big whale hunting?
Does anyone think that Khabby might not have been Tambo's choice, he just couldn't convince KLowe and Katz?
DBO, not that it matters in the grand scheme of things, but I think AsiaOil is a dude.
ReplyDeleteuni: think you are right. my bad.
ReplyDeletehow much of the Khabby signing would you put to Mr.Katz's big whale hunting?
ReplyDeleteGiven the timing and how quickly it came about, I think it was part of the Heatley hunt.
No evidence, just a hunch given that there was no talk of anything, and then all of the sudden in the craziest part of the Heatley hunt, we sign Khabi - even Khabibulin said the signing came out of nowhere.
Dubnyk is definately a better technical goaltender than JDD. Other than that, I don't think we know a whole lot. I'm surprised people are putting so much weight into those last 8 to 10 games.
ReplyDeleteHoos: I think the Khabby signing has Lowe's fingerprints on it. We know Lowe has admitted he was often acting on orders from ownership, be it EIG or Katz. We know Katz was involved in telephone discussions with Hossa and that he flew to Kelowna with Tambo and Lowe in tow.
ReplyDeleteTambo often seems unduly nervous in pressers in defending some of the the organization's actions. My guess is that he's caught between the proverbial rock and hard place.
We may never find out whose call it was.
great assesment by AsiaOil.
ReplyDeletei'm curious to see JDD's and DD's shootout save pct. too. in today's NHL that is an important stat.
I stand by what I said in the JDD thread. The 3-headed goalie monster is only a bad idea if you've got a starter who you can rely on for 60+ games. The Oilers don't. Keep all three and split their games 42-20-20 or something like that and then decide next year or dump one at the deadline (either trade or waivers, it doesn't matter.) It gives DD a chance to develop semi-normally, JDD a second chance at developing semi-normally, and Khabibulin a break. Otherwise, the team needs to be willing to grab a UFA goalie, any unsigned UFA goalie, if Khabibulin goes down, because I don't want to see Roy get called up into this shit show and sent out to die every night like JDD and DD were this year. It would be nice to see the Oilers actually develop a prospect properly for a change.
ReplyDeletei just don't get how people can make sweeping conclusions that DD is the better goalie with such small sample sizes for both goalies, especially when you consider that JDD has better stats across the board. sure there's something to say for the age difference, but count me in the crew that "didn't see DD any better than JDD" ... both appeared to have "moments" where things were tight mixed with catastrophe.
ReplyDeletei also don't see DD as being obviously more technically sound. that teepee between his legs, the crouched over style (perfect pic on this post)that makes him closer to 5'9" and his desire to play deep in his crease, massively limit the "benefits" i see in his size. pekka rinne is for a me the goalie that AO is describing in his comments, not DD.
saying DD is obviously the best reminds me of the situation we're in with mini-magic, because we "saw him good" down the stretch that one year with the kid line.
worst save percentage among rookie goalies has to ring out a little in our ears.
either way, i think both need to be put back in the ahl to stew and we should consider a realistic option to help us win games.
again, is there any precedent for other teams taking this calibre of goalie off waivers? i don't believe there is. sign them both and send them down. LT is always talking about acquiring "real NHL players" -- for me this is the position we need one in.
I'll preface this by saying I lean towards Dubynk too, and I was at that Kings game sitting 4 rows from DD in that awesome 50+ save performance at the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteWhile I agree with AO's statements about cutting out the soft goals, I'm really surprised that people don't remember all the soft goals that leaked through DD earlier in the year. Yes, you can argue that he cut that out of his game later, but you could also argue that JDD can learn to be "quieter" and more controlled in net. That's just coaching after all.
I don't think there is a huge difference in ability between the two, they're just DIFFERENT. While it's entirely logical to take the younger goalie because of the potential upside and place on the development curve, a lot of people are talking like this is a slam dunk on who is going to be the better goalie.
As we all know, JDD is by no means "old" by standards of goalie development. We've all seen plenty of examples of guys who didn't reach their potential in late 20's.
DD is a classic make yourself look big because you have no talent goalie. Alex Auld V.2
ReplyDeleteJfry: Agree with all you comments, save for one:
ReplyDeleteI don't think either of these being in the AHL is a good idea. It's time for them to learn up with the big boys. Especially with the uncertain state of things on the farm. We all HOPE it will be a better environment, but who knows. That's going to an awfully young blueline again in OKC (Motin, Plante, Petry, Chorney).
They've both proven they can play (a bit) at this level.
The 3-headed goalie monster is only a bad idea if you've got a starter who you can rely on for 60+ games.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be likely that Khabi's health stays good if DD is playing a regular game every third outing? I mean, NK's body wears down the more he plays, so play him less, and the likelihood of injury decreases (that sounds weird to me too).
I dunno, I guess my point is, while I don't disagree with the thinking that a capable 1B vet signing would be the best thing for this team, I don't think it will happen because of Tambi's obstinacy over proving NK was not a bad signing. And if that is the case, then the new coach (I'm fully in that camp) needs to know that you treat NK like fragile porcelain and play him only as necessary with regular rests in between, pulling him at the first hint of a blow-out, etc, etc. Thus, imo, DD needs to be the guy you develop (thanks Asia for all the reasons I didn't think of) playing a one in three games type of year and batting clean-up for those cover-your-eyes type of nights. Then, maybe, possibly, hopefully, with baling twine and duct tape, NK plays the full-ish year. (fingers crossed and all that superstitious nonsense)
I don't understand why people think JDD cannot improve upon his technique. I don't think you will find anyone who believes DD has more natural talent than JDD - in other words JDD has assets that cannot be taught to DD. Can technique be improved? Undoubtably. Case and point: Dwayne Roloson. Take a look at his NHL progression:
ReplyDelete1996-97 Calgary Flames 0.897
1997-98 Calgary Flames 0.890
1998-99 Buffalo Sabres 0.909
He played 31, 39, and 18 games respectively. Roloson has excellent, consistent technique at this point in his career, and I think you would be hard pressed to say that the version of Roloson that played for the flames was as technically solid as he is today.
I for one am not entirely sold that JDD is a lost cause OR that we have this mystical understanding of JDDs complete game. JDD has played 58 TOTAL NHL games. Hes played about 200 TOTAL pro games - if this is the best version of JDD we'll ever see, then I guess you should technically be able to write off any goaltender who struggles after playing roughly one full seasons worth of games.
There are plenty of goaltenders who found their game later in their careers, and I certainly think it's ridiculous for people to claim they have this prescient understanding of JDDs ceiling as a goaltender.
I for one am not entirely sold that JDD is a lost cause
ReplyDeleteAll we have to do is wait 10 years for him to develop into Roloson! Think of all the lottery picks the Oil would get! ;) (just having fun with ya)
totally unrelated note Eberle played against germany on a line with Duchene and Tavares. Seems like they played well according to TSN highlites. All the scoring in Canada's 4-1 win came from Perry-Stamkos-Bourque.
ReplyDeletegood point, despisethesun, about not wanting to call up Olivier Roy, and send him out to "die" every night! he's the real deal from what i've been hearing, and he's definetly one goalie in our system i do NOT want to bugger up by bringing him up before he's ready!
ReplyDelete@moose
ReplyDeletei agree the AHL could be a gong show next year, but for me, neither goalie has hit the desired level of save percentage (which seems to be the metric we've sorta settled on for goalies, faulty as it might be) in the AHL and neither are even close in the NHL.
I believe we set .920 as the line in the sand for graduating to the pros from the AHL in previous threads (i might have that number wrong), but either way, neither goalie has sniffed that.
I think MacT was hesitant to promote offensive players from the AHL until they could hit the cover off the ball which resulted in guys like RS staying in the minors longer than we all thought -- he never consistently played up to that "line in the sand" that macT felt was enough to elevate a strictly offensive minded player...by my mind we're doing the exact opposite with DD and JDD -- neither of them have hit that line in the sand and we appear to be promoting them, just because we've run out of options.
i guess by way of metaphor, when i consider that one of these guys might have to play 60 games next year, it's like the thought of having chorney as our #2 dman. SCARY!
"I think MacT was hesitant to promote offensive players from the AHL until they could hit the cover off the ball which resulted in guys like RS staying in the minors longer than we all thought -- he never consistently played up to that "line in the sand" that macT felt was enough to elevate a strictly offensive minded player"
ReplyDeleteRiiight.
I don't know if anyone mentioned it yet or not but Jagr re-signed with his KHL team as per TSN. There's one less whale out there.
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen enough of DD to make up my mind of which goalie has the better technique.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've seen so far, both keepers have mental discipline issues, which can be coached out of them, if the subject is willing. From that pov, the Oil have a great advantage over us folk on the sidelines when it comes to this decision, as they know the mental make-up and attitudes of these young men far better than we do.
I don't rate the development of goaltenders as a high priority, so IMO we should keep the younger one, send him down to OK City and hire a vet backup a la Budaj or even Biron.
Then see if JDD has any value on the market, perhaps as a throw-in to another deal.
*All of the above presumes not being able to get out from under Khabib's contract.
Isn't the real problem that Khabi is Tambi 's signing and as a result it must a good signing
ReplyDeleteSo if we are not jettisoning Khabi we had better find someone who can play a real strong 35 to 45 games because 37 year old goalies with a history of injuries are not going to play 60 games
Not sure that definition fits either DD or JDD
Wouldn't it be likely that Khabi's health stays good if DD is playing a regular game every third outing?
ReplyDeleteI guess what I'm saying is I'm not sure I trust DD to handle 30 games at this point. And I'm not confident in JDD either. And I really don't trust either to be the starter in gods know how many games if NK goes down, and I'd rather not see Roy wind up in DD's position this year in that event. With less chance of either being thrown to the wolves each night like this year, one will emerge as a clear winner. Ditch the other one and give the better player more starts the next year (like 40 or so). If he doesn't look like a starter after that, lose him (trade/waivers) and give Roy a shot at the backup job. If he does, give him the 50-60 starts in NK's final contract year (what an expensive backup), and if Roy is looking like an NHLer, either let him compete for a job or shop him around.
That's just my view on it, but then my experience managing NHL teams consists of Dynasty mode in NHL video games so I'm no expert. It just seems that, if the goal over the next couple of seasons is player development and not contending, then there's no harm in taking it slow, especially if you're stuck with NK's contract. Otherwise, you might as well get rid of the lot of them and get a UFA goalie for a 1A/1B situation, because you need to be ready for the event that NK goes down and I don't want to see any more development time pissed away stupidly. If DD and Roy are legitimate prospects, I don't want to see them struggle the way JDD did this year, and while everyone's pretty down on JDD, his development has been botched fairly bad too. I'm hoping one of these 3 turns into a real NHL starter at some point, and if it looks like none of them will, then get rid of the lot of them and get someone else in here.
Just shovel in as much pain killers, coffee, and alcohol as the bulin wall can take and he'll give you 50
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen enough of DD to make up my mind of which goalie has the better technique.
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen enough of DD to claim he has any technique, but I've seen enough of JDD to know that he has negative technique. It's essentialy Hasek without the whole crutch of actually being good at the position. Also, mix in a little of Brodeur's puck-handling, but then add in a complete inability to make correct decisions.
I look forward to his career in realty.
That's just my view on it, but then my experience managing NHL teams consists of Dynasty mode in NHL video games so I'm no expert.
ReplyDeleteMakes you more of an expert than me, 'cause I haven't even heard of that!
And I didn't clarify my position earlier either. I agree keeping Roy outta harm's way is essential this year (which means nowhere near the NHL). And I really don't think the Oil have much of a shot at .500 play this year, so I don't mind handing off the back up duties to an inexperienced goalie who may lose at much as he wins, but who will actually learn (and imo, that back-up should be DD over JDD, but I am in no way qualified to make that call).
I think MacT was hesitant to promote offensive players from the AHL until they could hit the cover off the ball which resulted in guys like RS staying in the minors longer than we all thought
ReplyDeleteAccording to OTC, Management makes those decisions.
Quain or Scott or anyone else, do you guys have final numbers on scoring chances for all Oilers players, including goalies, for this past season. Dennis kept track of that all year, and I'm keen to see the final results.
ReplyDeleteP.S. AsiaOil is bang on.
Dubnyk looks to have some promise.
And it's been many, many years since I've seen a goalie that had positioning so bad as JDD. I've never see so many goals go in that were near the middle of the net, and not through the five hole.
Quain...
ReplyDeleteMostly agreed. I just haven't seen enough of DD to convince me he's any better.
JDD is going to be a UFA at the end of his next contract and DD will be a group VI UFA if he doesn't play 12 games this year. Essentially if they keep Deslauriers , they need to gamble on him with a multi-year deal or lose both goalies for nothing. If they keep Dubnyk, they can get something for JDD and have DD guaranteed for 1-3 years if he plays well but they can demote him and bring in someone else if he doesn't
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see them hold on to both JDD and DD.
ReplyDeleteIf the NHL ever starts awarding the Cup based on a beach volleyball tournament among the back-up goalies from each team, we're clearly the runaway favourites.
Thanks for the prime time slot LT :) The only reason I think we should keep DD over JDD is we have a pretty good idea of what JDD is - and that is a Steve Valliquette type backup. His entire pro resume gives no indication of anything better then that - and you do not waste a NHL backup slot and cherry minutes (starts against weaker opposition) on developing backups. If you need an experienced backup you can get one for almost nothing on the UFA market.
ReplyDeleteYou keep DD for one reason - his near term potential as a starter. After a rough start which required a lot of toughness to weather - he showed a very good sustained stretch play after the Oly break. But he has to build on this next year or he is in the exact same boat as JDD. If dulock is correct and he needs to play 12 games next year to avoid going UFA - well that just seals the deal.
So that's my call - JDD has been given a chance and played pretty much as expected given his resume. That's not good enough to waste more development time on - so you move on to DD. If he does not pan out - then you make sure the development pipeline is full so that the next guy is ready to replace him. If he succeeds then the next young guy can serves as his backup. If Dubnyk can develop as hoped and NK can play 50 games next season and 40 the following year - then his contract may not be the total disaster it appears to be now. NK is a player who appears to be willing to share the net with a young guy - but unless he has about 90 starts left in him and Dubnyk develops into a solid starter - we are totally screwed. Unfortunately neither of those is something I would risk a large sum of money betting on - but that's what we are stuck with as a result of the idiotic contract Lowebellini gave NK.
Neither JDD or DD is "the guy".
ReplyDeleteKhabibulin is the guy. If he is unable to return due to health reasons, the Oilers have to get another guy.
Their development was messed up because of the farm club situation and while it's no fault of theirs, there really is only room for one of them.
They both might be the guy in a few years but appear to be close now. In the event of a tie does the younger one win?
well said, mindmasher! i think some fans believe they have seen the best of JDD ( i don't, not a chance), that he can't improve, either as a goalie or his technique (i believe he can and WILL), and don't want to give him more chances to play next year to see if the developmental process can continue. nothing against people wishing to see Dubnyk here instead, but i just wish we would be a little more patient with JDD to see what kind of goalie we REALLY have! i hope fans are more patient with the rebuild that's coming than they've been with Deslauriers!!
ReplyDeleteI used to be as big a backer of JDD for the first few years after he was drafted. However, the same goalie I saw then is the same goalie I see now. He has barely quieted down his game since his days in the minors and I don't see it changing for the better. As a result, I have hitched my hopes on to DD. The soft goals he was letting in during his first few NHL games are ones that can be eliminated and he has enough lateral mobility for a goalie of his size to cover up enough of the net.
ReplyDeleteNot sure how DDs development has been messed up. Seems they haven't rushed him but he's had plenty of opportunity to play and has progressed each year at each level.
ReplyDeleteAs far as technique goes, you can tell just from watching DD has quieter feet. Fleury at 18 is the guy that reminds me of JDD at 26.
I'd love to see JDD down in OKC with a "Wade Flaherty". I think he has a greater chance of passing through waivers because he's still at the stage that he'll cost you games in the show with weak goals. Either way the oilers will need 4 goaltenders this year because it'd be a shame to leave all those young d-men in OKC with seive like goaltending again once NK goes down.
Just read the KHABI SIGNS! thread from July 1 last.
ReplyDeleteWhat a fun read.
Amongst a sea of gems, here's one that stood out:
Lord Bob said...
Okay, guys who think that Tambs is doing a great job because he's getting players you've heard of, I want to put this on the record.
I am willing to bet $10, here and now, that the Columbus Blue Jackets will beat the Oilers in the standings by ten points next year. And they're not going to sign anybody.
4:42 PM, July 01, 2009
17 points
14th and 15th in the Conference
Here's the thing about the Roli comps to JDD. If, and I do mean if, JDD follows a similar development path, are we really advocating keeping JDD around for another 7 years or so where he's pretty much a below average goalie that is going to cost games at the risk of losing DD on waivers until everything comes together and he becomes Roli like?
ReplyDeleteCause if that's the case I'd rather fish out Lababeras from the FA pool in the hopes of finding a future Roli that's further along the development curve to becoming the next Roli.
Does anybody else find it disturbing that Tambo talks about changing the culture, ridding the team of bad influences, and then talks about what a great mentor our DUI'd goalie is for young kids?
ReplyDelete***with Russian accent***
"Here's a little tip, Devan. Take side streets."
There are probably quite a few 'future Rolis' out there, the problem is that most of them never become Roli
ReplyDeletei doubt both will be on the NHL roster.
ReplyDeleteWas your first clue that Tambellini announced that they wouldn't both be on the NHL roster?
Moose:
ReplyDeleteNot me. I'm more worried about Oilers culture of picking the wrong draft picks, then chasing the good players who take one look at the mess the team is in and wanting nothing to do with it. And then the "management" blames everything else but themselves.
Re the draft: Were anyone sane to pick Hall after his fabulous playoff successes, and for any reason he busts, no one would hold it against the management. On the other hand, were they to draft Seguin and he busts, while Hall goes onto a HOF career, that would be something else entirely.
And of course, the history of this team post dynasty is steeped in picking the wrong players, for the wrong reasons.
Hunter: The problem with that drafting methodology is that it's already biased towards the "safer" pick. Which I'm assuming falls under "picking players for the wrong reasons" which is exactly what you say you don't want them to do.
ReplyDeleteI have no problem if they pick Seguin because they think he's going to be the best player down the road. If they do it primarily because he's a right handed center, or he's "smarter", etc...that's a different story.
None of us want this to be a Steve "he's the best skater in the draft and you have to be a good skater to be an Oiler" Kelly pick over Shane Doan. We just want them to pick who they think will be the best player...period.
It seems that a lot of people here think that AsiaOil's preference for DD is based on a short 10 game segment of the season. It also seems that there are a lot of people who are convinced that this is the beginning of a development curve for both goaltenders and that the NHL is where the resume begins. (not everyone in either case)
ReplyDeleteSo I thought I would just throw out some boxcars. I think for simplicity and clarification, we can effectively use each goalie's performance compared to their backups in the hopes of somewhat equalizing for team and league quality, understanding that their respective backups are not of equal talent, team systems effect SV% etc.
But for what it's worth:
JDD's ONLY junior season with a SV% greater than (>) .900 was as a 19 yr old in the Q where he had a a SV% 7% higher than his 16 yr old back up. He had two seasons in the AHL with a SV% > .900 - the first in 06/07 for the Penguins where he was outplayed (by 6 SV%pts) by Nolan Schaefer (who? Exactly) who was brought in at the deadline. The next season he outplayed a 21 yr old Dubnyk by 8 SV% pts for the Falcons as a 23 yr old.
DD played four seasons in the WHL (plus 3 games as a 15yr old) and posted a SV% > .900 in every year. As a 16 yr old he was bested by the starter by 3% pts, but as a 17 yr old he was 4% better than next best backup. By 18? He beat his back up by 25% pts and played 65 games. He was the best goalie on his squad by a similar margin as a 19 year old. That's called pedigree.
This year in the AHL he posted a .915, and aside from Roy, none of the other 5 goalies they tried could get to .900.
I 'saw him good' this year, too, and I think every goalie (even at the crappy rec league level I play) can see the positioning and awareness differences, not to mention the age, pedigree, and size differences. But even if we set this season aside, there isn't much that points to JDD as the better goalie, or even as a goalie that is likely to improve dramatically in his career. He's never dominated at any level.
Not a perfect (or even good) system for evaluation, I realize. But maybe, hopefully a clear indication of why its very reasonable to assume Dubnyk is the better goaltender now and into the future.
well, gee Steve, i wonder if you have anything to ADD rather than bash?
ReplyDeletewell, gee Steve, i wonder if you have anything to ADD rather than bash?
ReplyDeleteNot much, generally, which is why I don't try. There may be a lesson for you there.
@Steve....LOL!!
ReplyDelete@Steve....LOL!!
ReplyDeleteSigh.