Earlier this month I changed my vote to Taylor Hall in the ongoing debate over this year's number one.
However, it's also important to remember that fan voting doesn't count for a hill of beans. The actual votes that count belong to Daryl Katz, Steve Tambellini, Kevin Lowe.
And most importantly, Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor.
The Oilers have talked at great length recently about the long term, usually in the form of a previous example of success. The Chicago Model, the Los Angeles example, and on it goes. My take is that the Oilers aren't so much interested in the best available player for next year, but rather the best overall player when all is said and done. I'll be 70 years old when the final results are tallied, so this is a long ranger in terms of forecast.
An interesting article in the Windsor Star quotes CS's director of scouting (Mark Seidel) and he has some excellent points. I won't quote the entire article (click through if you have the time), but here are some pertinent items:
- Seguin's played fewer games at the OHL level and posted the same point totals with lesser players.
- Hall's tremendous speed/strength advantage in junior hockey will not be as big an item once he arrives in the NHL.
We know all of these things intuitively, but it is hard to think about them when you see Taylor Hall looking like Hockey Jesus every second night at the Memorial Cup.
I'm a fan. I'm allowed to change my vote and be wrong. MBS has to get it right, but the one thing he can probably count on is that in this situation there probably isn't a wrong answer.
I still prefer Seguin. But anyway only time will tell, and what we think will most probably not affect the outcome. The ball is in theyr hands. Don't screw up.
ReplyDeleteThe best scenario is to get both. Two stars can push each other to perform. The question is in what price?
ReplyDeleteI am originally from Edmonton and unfortunately live in Ontario now but as a result I have seen both Hall and Seguin play extensively in the last two years and as much as I like Hall I would pick Seguin. Seguin thinks the game a lot better than Hall and makes the players around him better, in fact the only reason his team made the playoffs and the second round is because of him and their goalie Matt Hackett. I love both players but if my team is rebuilding like the Oilers are Seguin is the guy.
ReplyDeleteWe already have dynamic scorers and highlight reelers in MPS, Eberle, Hemsky, Gagner, etc. Shouldn’t we take a guy to stick it all together on the ice? Kind of what Toews does with all those weapons in Chicago.
ReplyDeleteWhat does he mean by Seguin played fewer games with the same point totals?
ReplyDeleteIf he's talking about total OHL games, then he's right about Seguin playing less, but way off in terms of points. If he's talking about this years' point totals, then he's right about them having putting up the same points, but wrong about who played more games.
Maybe it's all explained in the article, and I should just read it.
The added bonus with Seguin is that Boston may give up something to get Hall.
ReplyDeleteAgree totally LT. I keep flipping between the two of them. Seguin makes sense to the analytical part of my brain: thinks game well, solid both zones, makes players around him better, plays centre and has decent size (which we lack) and is improving every year. Hall however excites the emotional side of my brain: Anderson esque drives to the net dman be damned, scores big goals at big moments, plays with a fire we sorely lack on this team, every time i write him off he steps up and plays better then i thought. I wonder if the Oil have 2 plans going into the draft:
ReplyDelete1. Go with Seguin, send him back to junior to dominate at WJC and get a bit stronger, plug some vets into spots (ala Phoenix this year) and load up the farm team with our top prospects and give them a solid winning season together then bring them up for the 2011/12 season. Also means we look to either re-sign or move one of Penner or Hemsky at next years draft and go through a solid rebuild.
2. the moves made before or at the draft brings in a solid young centre (ala Dubinsky), therefore allowing us to draft Hall since we are set at centre for the next 5years with Horc, Gags, Dubinsky type. We add a top end dman like Hamhuis and another vet or two on the back end and we are surprisingly competitive and make a push for the playoffs. The rebuild is more of a Colorado one.
Either way I'm happy, although i do wonder if the Org really does look at option 2 as a better option since it implies we'll be better and more competitive right away. I may be crazy but I think a lineup like this would have a chance at the playoffs
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Eberle
MPS-Dubinsky-Brule
Potulny-Pouliot-Jones
Cogs/Nilsson-Stortini
Take the center and be happy.
ReplyDeleteTake the wing and hope he doesn't turn his brain to mush by the time he's 22.
I still want Seguin. When MacGregor compared Seguin to Sakic, that was the clincher.
ReplyDeleteDBO - Your option 2 (and what was discussed in yesterday's post) does not seem at all like a rebuild. It seems like more of the same 'make it up as we go along' junk. If they really are committed to a rebuild then patience is the operative word. To me that means Sequin and as few of the kids as possible in the NHL next year.
Everyone's prescriptions yesterday to add a piece here or there to finish 8-10 again next year is exactly the thinking that I think needs to go. If we try to be competitive and rebuild, we will accomplish neither and remain mediocre.
If it is rebuild time, I want to make the deal with the Bruins to swap picks (even if that means Hall, not Seguin) and get Toronto's first for 2011 out of them - even if we have to expand the deal to include other players. We pick second, but end up with the Leafs 2011 #1.
The new cluster needs a goalie. Hence my affection for Price.
"You are WRONG."
ReplyDeleteI really like how Boston made sure their pick is worth more for us by losing to Phillidelphia.
It's like the universe is falling into place for us to take Seguin first, and receive a good compensaroty draft pick from boston for not taking Hall.
Oh, and you can bet the asking price for Boston's pick would be Crosby+ right now. The Oilers don't have the assets without completely gutting what remains of the team.
It's very intriguing because it would not surprise me if some of what's going on right now is posturing. If you can convince Boston that Hall is really in the mix (and that's the player they want), you might be able to get some compensation for taking Sequin.
ReplyDeleteBoston could also call BS on this and dare us to do it too.
Watching Hall, I've been impressed but my one concern is with his reckless play he could very easily get his eggs scrambled on one hit and have his career cut short once he starts playing men.
In MBS we trust.
Contrary to the asanine assertions of some when they say "Hall is clearly the better player", this is a very close race and you could justify picking either (and, as such, set the team off on one of two totally different directions, as "the master plan" is going to vary depending on which guy the Oilers take).
ReplyDeleteI'm going back and forth on it daily, but I will say this: the Bruins prefer Hall, and if the Oilers decide to take Seguin, I expect them to extract whatever they can from Boston to "lay off" Hall. Blake Wheeler? Extra first rounder this year? 2011 Leafs first rounder? Your mileage may vary.
The first point that you single out, to me, is the key. Seguin is almost a full year behind Hall developmentally. If you compare their second OHL seasons, the picture is a lot different.
ReplyDeleteHall 63GP 38-52-90
Seguin 63GP 48-58-106
Add in the fact that Hall is surrounded by all-stars, and Seguin is a one-man show, for me it certainly tilts the equation in Seguin's favour.
The other way I see it is this: For argument's sake, let's say that the absolute top end comparable for Hall is Iginla, and for Seguin, Sakic (I am not in anyway suggesting that either will turn out this good, just suggesting absolute best-case senarios).
If Sakic and Iginla were in the same draft class, who would you choose?
I wish Ottawa had that Toronto pick.
ReplyDeleteIf Sakic and Iginla were in the same draft class, who would you choose?
ReplyDeleteSakic, in a cocaine heartbeat.
Can we all agree on this?
ReplyDeleteSeguin + 2011 Leafs first rounder is clearly of greater value than Hall
If Hall and Seguin are that close, adding a likely bottom 5 pick should settle it, correct?
Jordan - How committed to a rebuild can you be if you are not prepared to 'gut' today's roster?
ReplyDeleteSeems like muddled thinking to try to 'rebuild' around Penner and Hemsky.
Seems like muddled thinking to try to 'rebuild' around Penner and Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteWell, not everyone on a rebuild team needs to be the same age. When Hall is 22, Hemsky will be 29. That can work (if Hemsky is willing to stick around for a while).
Well, not everyone on a rebuild team needs to be the same age.
ReplyDeleteThey won't be. When Hall is 22 Horc will 35 and will still have one year left. We're stuck with his deal.
I just can't see the Oilers passing on a talent like Hall. Say what you want about guys like Weight and Arnott, but this team hasn't had a STAR presence since Messier left.
ReplyDeleteYou simply can't pass up a likely star player.
He's got a proven track record. Seguin is a one year wonder.
This year, Hall was asked to improve on using his teammates more effectively, he did just that. He's won at every level. I don't know what more he can do to prove to everyone he's the guy.
He's a sniper. The oilers have needed a sniper for 20 years. The Oilers have playmakers in Hemsky and Gagner. They are less effective without someone to play with. That someone is Hall.
Lastly, everyone's saying center is a need. I say Gagner is only 21!!! he's getting better and better and will likely be a leader next year. Two years ago everyone was saying he was the answer. What they lack is a faceoff guy that's tough to play against(that's not Seguin).
Hall is the way to go and if they pass on his talent, they will regret it.
From all accounts Seguin loaded up on ice time sometimes close to 30 minutes.
ReplyDeleteI doubt the info is available but i would love to see the pts/60 for each player.
One thing is certain, no matter who the Oilers choose: we will hear, for the next 10 years at least, from armchair GMs from all walks of life who are convinced the Oilers made the wrong choice.
ReplyDeleteGet ready, Edmonton!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletebookie - Agreed. That Toronto pick is going to be golden.
ReplyDeleteI think the argument that if they want to take Seguin they are talking up Hall as much as possible to squeeze something out of Boston for the Oilers passing on Hall is a good one and might be exactly what they are planning.
ReplyDeleteI think from a balanced lineup perspective the Oilers would be better off with Hall. Main reason being if you take Hall you can run with Gagner, Horc and sign a good vet 3rd line center to win faceoffs, play tough minutes ect. If you take Seguin you have him Gagner, Horc (as your 3rd). You don't really have the room for the vet 3rd line center.
I think picking Hall would balance out the roster much better then Seguin.
Hall Gagner Hemsky
Penner Horc Eberle
??? (Vet center) Pisani
MPS Pouliot Stortini
One thing about the comment that Hall plays with better player, is it doesn't take into account his possible affect on his linemates.
ReplyDeleteWindsor may be deeper, but it's Hall's line that gets all the attention from the other teams, just like Seguin's line does. So we can probable assume that they're facing the same sort of checking.
Seguin plays on a line with AJ Jenks. Hardly a nobody in junior hockey, and just came of a terrific WJC performance. Hall's centers in junior have been Josh Bailey and then Adam Henrique.
Jenks had 63 points this year, which was good for 2nd on the team. Before Seguin showed up (2 seasons ago), he put up 55. An improvement for sure, but not the bump you'd expect after playing with the top ranked player in the entire draft.
Josh Bailey saw his point totals jump from 35 to 96 the year Hall showed up on the scene (as a rookie). Henrique went from back-to-back 40 point seasons to 63 and 77 when he started playing with Hall. I don't know enough about who the other linemates were for each guy, but it seems at least a part of the "Hall has better linemates" argument is in part thanks to Hall himself.
My suggestion would be Cogliano to Boston for the Leafs 1st round pick next year and the Bruins get Hall
ReplyDeleteFor everyone with injury concerns about Mr. Hall, unless he's flat out lying (and I don't see why he would about this) he's extremely flexible and that's a big part of the reason he doesn't get hurt. They will verify this at the combine (right?). It's probably more important to be durable and capable of getting whacked without getting hurt than it is to be able to dodge checks all the time.
ReplyDeleteIf he did, 3/4 of you guys would say "soft" or "perimeter guy" or something stupid like that anyway.
I'm in the Hall camp now. Based on "it". I didn't like the guy much to start, but he's convinced me. For a guy who is fast, he doesn't rely on his speed too much.
I'm more interested in who we pick with our second pick to be honest. I'm convinced there will be a diamond-quality forward there for the picking if we've done our homework.
I can see it now - the Oil take Seguin at #1, decide to do the prudent thing this time and send him back to Junior for next season...
ReplyDelete...where he flounders and doesn't come close to matching his 09-10 numbers.
...while at the same time Hall tears it up in Boston looking every bit the future superstar everyone predicted he'd be for the last 2 years.
Would Oiler fans burn the Coliseum to the ground, or just simply give up?
Ribs/Bookie:
ReplyDeleteI'm on board with taking Seguin and extracting some additional value for laying off Hall, but I'm not so sure the Toronto #1 next year is going to be as great as we might think. First off, it doesn't sound like a particularly deep class next year (I know it's early), but they were, what, six points away from that pick being 6th or 7th this year?
I think with a full year of Giguere to solidfy the goaltending and Burke will get some scoring help either via free agency or moving Kaberle...that pick could end up being in the 10-12 range. That's nothing to sneeze at, but is that more valuable than Boston's first in this years' draft if we agree it might be deeper this year? Or Wheeler?
You've also got to remember that with cap space, and not having any picks to work with the next 2 drafts, Burke could be a big player in free agency. Having Giguere, a healthy Kessell, and adding one or two decent free agent forwards, they could be a much better team than the one who finished one spot ahead of us last year.
ReplyDeleteToronto never has problems attracting UFAs, even when the team stinks.
How committed to a rebuild can you be if you are not prepared to 'gut' today's roster?
ReplyDeleteFor me, it really depends on how you approach it. I would not be moving good/impact players like 27, 83 or 77, for a player who could turn out to be as good, better or flop. It's a poor bet. This roster has needed to be gutted for a while, and it started at Deadline day, and will continue into the summer. But it needs to be done in a manner that keeps the wheat and clears the chaffe.
Well, not everyone on a rebuild team needs to be the same age. When Hall is 22, Hemsky will be 29. That can work (if Hemsky is willing to stick around for a while).
They won't be. When Hall is 22 Horc will 35 and will still have one year left. We're stuck with his deal.
I don't understand why you bring up Horcoff. Are you trolling? It's obvious that Horcoff's deal make him an untradable asset at this time, and not of value when looking at the 2nd overall pick this pring. Bookie is talking about keeping a player who is a key peice of this team right now, who has snet messages both that he might like to stay beyond his current contract. If that's true he can fit into the cluster as an experienced NHLer/leader/mentor.
If you are not trading the players I mentioned above, because of their value to the team now, there is not enough of value left to make a decent pitch for the 2nd overall. If you are including even one of those players, you are taking a big risk by trading a player to get a prospect. In my estimation even if you are trading for Seguin or Hall, its a bad bet to make.
I don’t want to give up Hemsky or Penner. These are our best players and they have reasonable contracts. I don’t want to finish last again next season because it’s bloody painful. Let’s just take what we have here and try to be a competitive hockey club each year. No more talk of tearing down the house, and acquiring a bunch of picks to make a lucky Chicago rebuild. Let’s just keep getting better through the draft over the next 10 years. But there’s no reason to trade players away just so that we can suck and get a good draft pick. This season was so painful let’s not try to relive it.
ReplyDeleteI think we're blue-skying the return from Boston for letting them have Hall.
ReplyDeleteIf they can be convinced to give up TO's 2011 pick, then it's going to take more than just Hall to do it, and adding in a Cogliano might not be enough, but maybe. And certainly we shouldn't be disappointed if that pick ends up being 10-12. That's a helluva return. But I seriously doubt that pick is in play.
I think Boston's own pick this year is a more likely scenario, and even then that would strike me as a bit of an overpay--to essentially move up one spot in the draft. If Boston and Oilers situations and picks were flipped, would you be happy with giving up a 1st for the right to take Hall?
And in the past it seems a good 2nd rounder is a typical return.
High expectations lead to disappointment, and I don't think we should blue sky this sitiuation too much. We're setting up management to fail. Should we not temper our hopes a tad?
I'd expect to that Boston has some contingency plan in place if they can't get Hall... Perhaps flipping Seguin to Columbus for their pick and a player. We're not going to have perfect leverage in this siutation, nor will there be competing bidders, so I'm doubting the return for laying off Hall will be all that a bag of chips. Another player going the other way would sure help the return.
There are days when I wish I had't laughed at the typing geeks in Junior High. Who knew those new fangled computer thingies were gonna be the cat's ass?
ReplyDeleteSpOILer,
ReplyDeleteDon't think there is anyway Boston flips Seguin. I'm hearing more and more scouting people say that the drop off from 1 & 2 (or 1 & 1A) to #3 is very steep. Certainly a lot larger than was made out early in the year when Fowler was regularly being tossed into the discussion.
They may not overpay for Hall, but they have very few options if they don't want to meet the asking price. They're not dumb enough to pass on Seguin.
Toronto:
ReplyDelete7.35M 2 goalies
26.325M 7 Dmen
14.625M 6 forwards
Kessel, bozak, Grabovski, Orr, Staglberg, sjostrom.
48.3M and 8 forwards to get.
Plus how much do you pay kulemin?
how good is he?
He was on of the players who was top 20 scorers in KHL/RSL U23 the last decade:
Ovechkin,
Malkin,
Frolov,
Semin,
kovalchuk,
Kulemin,
Omark.
they are not going to be able to chae the free agent butter.
Toews and Kane is nice to have. But if I could only have one I'd rather have Toews.
ReplyDeleteNothing wrong with picking Hall #1. But I'd rather have Seguin.
Rickibear:
ReplyDeleteIf you bury Finger in the minors and trade Kaberle for a top 6 forward, the situation doesn't look quite as bad from both a cap and lineup perspective.
Moose:
ReplyDeleteEasy to say that they'll bury salary in the minors but it's quite evident that teams aren't willing to do this, no matter how bad the contract. With all the bad contracts in the league over the last 4 years, how many players have been buried? Mogilny's the only one that comes to mind but maybe there have been others.
True...Although Cheechoo got sent down this year, so it has been done.
ReplyDeleteThat Finger contract was absolutely abysmal in term and dollars. Pound-for-pound, maybe the worst in the league.
From all accounts Seguin loaded up on ice time sometimes close to 30 minutes.
ReplyDeleteWhat accounts are those? No one tracks TOI and for the most part the people making those claims are talking right out of their ass.
Moose...
ReplyDeleteWith their bounty of centres, they could flip Seguin and get another top 6 player out of the deal and the top draft pick, improving their team for right now. It's dumb to call that dumb, it's a definite possibility (not to mention my conjecture was based on Boston not desiring Seguin and THUS having a contingency plan, if so). This is a fairly strong draft--it doesn't have a high ceiling through the top 10, but neither does it have a low floor. The drop off isn't that great.
They could also be happy to hold Seguin, send him back to Junior and slow play that hand to replace Savard down the road. I didn't mention that possibility because it's moot, it doesn't matter because it also supports my premise:
We do not have the leverage to obtain TO's 2011 pick just on the basis of Hall. Commenters here are probably blue-skying the return. I don't think meme-ing a wish serves much purpose.
I can only remember one team ever having to burry a contract in the minors (NJ and Mogilny), and that's exactly what they did.
ReplyDeleteIf Sather couldn't get a deal done for Gomez, I think it's very likely Redden would've been playing in the AHL last year. I doubt it would've stopped him from signing Gaborik.
A friend of a friend told me that sometimes Dany Heatley would put on a fake mustache and play for the Whalers under the pseudonym "Hany Deatley." The coach always made sure to play him with Seguin and then give them forty-five minutes of ice time every game.
ReplyDeleteTrue story, vote Hall.
SpOILer,
ReplyDeleteI agree with the part about people blue-skying the return, just as some have done with potential Souray deals. That said, I think they'll take and keep Seguin if the Oilers are dead-set on Hall.
Savard, Bergeron and Krejci are all smallish centers and have all suffered significant injuries in the not too distant past. If Seguin tears up camp or another year in the OHL it wouldn't be too hard to move one of those guys for fair value.
LMHF
ReplyDeleteThis flexibility argument is bogus. He is 18. When he is 26+ he is not going to be anywhere as flexible.
Flexibility doesn't help in preventing the brain from slamming into the skull - the reason for concussions.
Look at all the great boxers. When they are young they can take lots of punishment without much apparent effect. This changes pretty fast in their mid 20's and by their 30's they are noticably much slower mentally.
Hall is a smaller version of Lindros (who was supposed to be indestructible too): Overbearing father, doesn't fit real well in the team, and propensity to take big hits.
Seguin would be scoring at the same rate as Hall were he in the playoffs with the Spitfires.
Take Seguin.
Either way the Oilers are getting a fantastic player.
ReplyDeleteIf they get Hall, they get a guy who has done pretty much everything but score the OT winner for Canada @ the WJC as a 17 year old.
If they get Seguin, they get a guy who dismantled the OHL @ 17 with very little experience in the league and very little help on his wings.
Either way, it's good times.
Jordan - placing a higher priority on tomorrow's roster than today's does not mean throw away today's assets for less than they are worth.
ReplyDeleteYou are hearing things that I am not saying.
Kyle McLaren (SJ) was making $2.5m in the minors wasn't he?
ReplyDelete08/09? I can't remember.
over a three year period there were three dman so f........ awful they were top 3 worst GA/60.
ReplyDeleteWitt, Celine dione, Kaberle.
Kaberle is so terrible his pp ability relative to the league average still makes your team 20 goals short of breaking even. Top 6 forward! There are some idiot Gm's though.
Phanuef has gotten to break even since the move to TO.
That Calgary move is scary!
The 2nd worst defensive dman in the league for 3 first line players. Hagman top 20 LW goals, Stagan top 15-30 center assist, White top 30 Dman points.
everyone saying hall is going to get blown up and citing lindros...well, that's one absolute end of the irrational spectrum. the other is AO who had the EXACT same things said about him, as young taylor is experiencing.
ReplyDeletejust because the kid takes a few hits in the playoffs, doesn't mean he's going to be brett lindros. wow. what next, don't take fowler because he's a dman and runs a greater risk of having a broken leg because he takes lots of slashes in the corners? sounds a little far fetched in my mind.
Seguin on Gregor's show at 3:10pm today.
ReplyDeleteSeguin on Gregor's show at 3:10pm today.
ReplyDeleteThat's stupid, he should have gone with Hall.
these are two great players and i won't be disappointed by either if selected, but my personal preference is Hall.
ReplyDeletesome reasons:
1] Hall wants to be Edmonton more than Seguin does. or at least it seems that way. this could have long term impact on how his contract plays out.
2] Hall's beauty 16 year old season. i don't know much about Hall's size and weight at that time, but it seems like an indication that he is a complete player, not *just* a big frame dominating young kids.
3] Seguin's sample size. his one great season leaves me a bit nervous.
i do worry about Hall turning into an Eric Lindros, and Seguin into a Joe Sakic. still, i think goal in this draft should be to draft the Best Player Available, and not the Best Potential Available.
Seguin on Gregor's show at 3:10pm today.
ReplyDeleteThat's stupid, he should have gone with Hall.
Hi-yooo! (Ed McMahon laugh)
"We already have dynamic scorers and highlight reelers in MPS, Eberle, Hemsky, Gagner..."
ReplyDeleteRiight.
Two have them haven't ever played in the NHL, the other two are good but not star players.
Goes to show what 20 years licking the NHL's collective arse brings you.
Rebuilding and Horcoff shouldn't be in the same sentence.
ReplyDeleteHopefully he has a better season this year and someone takes that millstone from around our necks.
That way they could roll Gagner/Seguin with the 1st and 2nd lines moving forward.
Gagner's RFA this year is still a big worry. Someone's going to offer sheet him and we'll end up overpaying (again) to keep him.
Any fool takes Hall. Easiest first overall choice after this playoff run. Oilers, on the other hand, with a twenty year long season history of finding all kinds of ways to lose and blow, may well go with Seguin the "projected better player".
ReplyDeleteBecause that's how losers lose. They overthink the easy decisions in life, while not bothering to worry about the important ones.
the other is AO who had the EXACT same things said about him, as young taylor is experiencing.
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall there being some worry about his reckless style of play but he sure wasn't getting BLowED the ---- uP!! every other game. He has always been the guy giving the hits. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if Hall's recklessness was doing more damage to his opponents than to himself on a constant basis.
Any fool takes Hall. Easiest first overall choice after this playoff run. Oilers, on the other hand, with a twenty year long season history of finding all kinds of ways to lose and blow, may well go with Seguin the "projected better player".
ReplyDeleteBecause that's how losers lose. They overthink the easy decisions in life, while not bothering to worry about the important ones.
Losers lose by being easily influenced by shiny things...
Though I admit, Hall has been dominant the last few weeks while I haven't heard anything about Seguin so he must be better.
I'm 100% with hunter.
ReplyDeleteThe thought of these guys talking themselves into Seguin and patting themselves on the back because they think it's the gutsier pick actually makes me angry.
"Losers lose by being easily influenced by shiny things..."
ReplyDeletePronger, Khabibulin, Heatley, Hossa...
Picking Seguin because his team isn't very good sure smells like that Pouliot talk I recall from 2003.
Of course it suits the Oilers to choose players accustomed to losing.
Commonfan and Hunter - How is selecting the #1 ranked player somehow 'overthinking things'?
ReplyDeleteI could see it if Hall were ranked #1 by every major scouting report out there, but he is not.
hunter1909 said...
ReplyDeleteAny fool takes Hall. Easiest first overall choice after this playoff run. Oilers, on the other hand, with a twenty year long season history of finding all kinds of ways to lose and blow, may well go with Seguin the "projected better player".
commonfan13 said...
I'm 100% with hunter.
The thought of these guys talking themselves into Seguin and patting themselves on the back because they think it's the gutsier pick actually makes me angry.
Damn there are a lot of imbeciles working as pro scouts these days.
and to follow up - I don't really advocate either player. I don't think that I have the info needed to make the call.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I think its clear that the majority of experts suggest they are pretty close - so I think pre-ranting about how the Oilers are going to screw up the choice is ... well, screwed up!
Damn there are a lot of imbeciles working as pro scouts these days.
ReplyDeleteThose guys only dream of becoming comment makers on a top notch blog like LTs site!
If the Oilers have Seguin ranked ahead of Hall, they're in the distinct minority among NHL teams and their scouts.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=317801
If the Oilers have Seguin ranked ahead of Hall, they're in the distinct minority among NHL teams and their scouts.
ReplyDeleteFrom the article you link
7 of 11 sources have Hall first - 4 of 11 have Seguin first.
also
"It really is a two-horse race and it's close. Perhaps too close to call, "
So, it supports the arguement that this is a close call. You seem to suggest that this is like Crosby/Pouliot and the Oilers are somehow going to 'go rouge' and select the wrong guy. The reality is that there is no story here, no rant to be had. Its a close call and while we all have our preferences, you can't crucify the Oilers over the decision unless they pick someone other than these two OR unless something changes between now and then.
Darn tootin, book¡e!
ReplyDeleteNot to mention there are 19 teams opinions missing from the 11 surveyed, easily enough to skew it back the other way.
Redline has flip flopped on these two guys all year.
CSS has Seguin #1.
I mean, sheesh, to categorically state from our position of limited knowledge that one player is clearly a better selection than the other smacks of hubris.
I just guess we're all so gall darn excited about getting the first overall pick we're bickering about the fleas in a gnat's ass.
ReplyDeletehunter1909,
ReplyDeleteIt's okay to have an opinion. But having an opinion doesn't require ridiculing or belittling the opposite side. It doesn't require dire prognostications of the evil that will befall us all, if one's opinion isn't followed. Only a Sith deals in absolutes.
;o)
Honestly, I'm personally more worried about whomever the Oilers pick at #1 getting hit by a bus after posting a 4+ point night in the opening game than either turning out to be a bust.
ReplyDeleteI'm just that pessimistic these days.
This is why I would not have been disappointed picking 2nd - less headache. But honestly - the Oilers should do their own evaluation - and if the Bruin or other teams are talking about trading up to get their guy - then that's confirmation and you take him. If the other teams are consistently asking for the other guy - then you have to starting asking why? We do not know any of this information so most of the opinions here are just that - opinions
ReplyDeletePicking the guy with one great year under his belt because of a gut feeling would be hubris.
ReplyDeleteI just have an awful feeling that that's what they're going to do.
And I'll certinly cheer like crazy for Seguin if they take him, but I don't think too many of us got through the pain of this season hoping that they'd roll the dice on potential with the pick.
I'd rather they just took the guy who seems like a sure thing.
I think reasonable people can agree both of these young men are worthy of the #1 pick.
ReplyDeletePicking the guy with one great year under his belt because of a gut feeling would be hubris.
ReplyDeleteHe's got a great year and a half under his belt though.
He got off to a rough start in his OHL career, putting up just 1G and 8A his first 17 games. His last 44 he put up 20G 38A. Pro-rating his 44 games to 63 and you get about 83 points... which isn't far off of Hall's 90 point season the same year.
Asiaoil, the problem with that is what if the other team is wrong.
ReplyDeleteIf they want one guy and you want the other, you absolutely have to trust your scouts on it.
Maybe Oilers just need to draft both of them - somehow.
ReplyDeleteAsia: The Flyers were hot on Lindros and the Minnesota hot on Benoit Pouliot.
ReplyDeleteThe opposition's scouting staff could be wilder than yours.
DB - I'm saying if multiple teams want one guy and the bulk of the rating agencies agree - then you better have a damn good reason to go the other way. The Oilers history of being "smarter than the pack" is not good. If your scouts are in agreement with what the most other teams making offers want and the ratings agencies - then ignore the deals and pick your guy. Right now this looks like Hall from the outside.
ReplyDeleteBut if many of the deals that involve real assets changing hands involve Seguin - then you start questioning taking Hall if he's our guy. In that case I'm more comfortable doing a deal with BOS who is in a good position to draft for need (Hall) and taking the other guy 2nd (Seguin). But I want BPA - and I don't think any of us has enough info to say who that is right now.
The Flyers were hot on Lindros
ReplyDelete...and that worked out spectacularly for the Nordiques/Avalanche.
Which team has the next Forsberg and does not realize it?
My point is: trading this pick could end up being the right thing to do.
Lowetide: got an email addy I could drop you a note at? Wanted to make a point about something "offline", so to speak.
ReplyDelete"My point is: trading this pick could end up being the right thing to do."
ReplyDeletei think the NHL is very different from when lindros was drafted.
the salary cap makes getting value out of entry level contracts much more important - critical, even - to help build a team.
trading a #1 pick is much riskier in a salary cap world.