Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Winning the Lottery!

Tonight at 6pm the Edmonton Oilers will find out if they draft first or second overall. Bob McKenzie's latest look at the draft has Hall clearly number one. The math says there is very little to choose between the two and logic has joined reason to elevate Seguin (he's a center and he posted his 106 points in his 2nd OHL season, one year earlier than Hall).

I'm not certain it matters, but it sure as hell would be nice to win something this season.

91 comments:

  1. I would rather we not win the draft. Winning it would be stressful for management, for the local press, and for all of us.

    Lose it and we all get to sit back and relax. Management can focus on fixing everything else. In the end we either get Seguin (who may well be the better player for us) or a pissed off Hall with something to prove (that he should have been first).

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  2. bookie: Are you serious? I'd like a management group that knows its own mind. I'd love to see the Oilers take charge of the situation and make an informed choice.

    They need to man up here, the whole damn bunch of them. And finishing second and avoiding the stress is a copout. Win the first, make the choice and have the courage of your convictions dammit.

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  3. Winning it would be stressful for management, for the local press...

    And we certainly wouldn't want to see those poor fellers have a stressful day, would we?

    No, I see your point. But like the man said, it'd be nice to win something for once, even if it makes little practical difference.

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  4. I'd love to see the Oilers take charge of the situation and make an informed choice.

    "And with their first overall pick in this years NHL entry draft, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select Taylor...

    Aronson."

    Seriously, me too. I crave accountability, and an end to excuses and deflection of blame.

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  5. I hope we lose; it's the only way we're guaranteed to choose Seguin.

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  6. Stu MacGregor is about the only guy in this franchise that I have any faith in whatsoever.

    I'm cool with his decision, whatever it is... hopefully there isnt a case of media pressure, or meddling from management to influence his decision.

    We don't even have to win... we just need #2,3,4,5 to lose.

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  7. Even if they lose there's no guarantee Seguin will be available.

    If, as MacKenzie says, a survey of then scouts has seven preferring Hall, that still means that three or thirty percent prefer Seguin.

    No bearing in mind that there are four other teams that might win the lottery we need to use the proper mathematics to figure this out.

    Thirty percent of four, carry the six, multiply by Cogliano's shooting percentage, subtract Horcoff's Quality of teammates.

    Add the number of Cups that Lowe has won, subtract the number of critical stories written about Oilers' management by Edmonton media (zero so skip that step).

    Where's my fucking slide rule!?!??!

    Anyhow, lets see, divide by the number of times Bruce has writeen a positive comment about Storini.

    Hmm, impossible to add infinity.

    Oh wait, subtract the number of times Traktor has slagged Horcoff.

    So they cancel out.

    Anyhow, I have the Oilers picking second, the Bruins picking Hall first, Brian Burke having a stroke, Damien Cox saying something dumb and Tambellini trading the second pick overall for the rights to Tyler Arneson.

    Weird. I'd like to say that I didn't see that coming but I'd be lying.

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  8. I wonder which of Hall and Seguin Toronto's head of scouting prefers, not that it matters.

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  9. While others talk about how stoopid and retarded Oiler's management are. I'll be happy that the franchise is getting to pick the best player it's had in a long long time.

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  10. So they cancel out.

    You can't cancel out the division of affinity and subtraction of infinity! The math was sound up until there.

    Correcting for that you end up with a cat eating a gyro, angry that there's no cucumber sauce. I'm not sure what that means in the grand scheme of the draft, but I'm pretty sure it's bad juju.

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  11. Seguin is six months younger, played with lesser teammates and is a center.

    Hall was un-impressive at the WJHC and Seguin didn't even make the team. I'm a little worried.

    Comparatively speaking...Do these guys stack up to previous CHL prospects?

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  12. Boys, boys, you are finagling the manipulative wrong. The answer is 5. It is always five.

    Why don't I teach math again?

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  13. BD,

    Pure awesomeness.

    Of course you want to win. Wanting to come second so you can't get second guessed in the future is loser talk. Being afraid to fail. Standard Oiler stuff.

    This team is going to get better, despite management, not because of it.

    Shitty teams getting good picks, thank Weir that MBS has been around to make the picks.

    I think that we have to give Milquetoast a passing grade for his deadline deals, and for not bringing up Eberle so LaForge can open his sidewalk stand of Hope, so if he is getting better at his job the glimmers of hope continue.

    The real proof is Milquetoast is a real GM is this summer. Can he flush all of the crap that Vish left in the toilet? Will he flush the right ones?

    If JFFJ, a special project of Vish's that he is loathe to let go of, doesn't get offered another contract, then its a tell on who is holding the reins.

    Since this is like a GDT,

    GO OILERS!!!

    *clap,clap*

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  14. Seguin didn't even make the team. I'm a little worried.

    "Wiff" Kadri (TOR) and "Disappear" (CGY) Nemisz is all you need to know about the politics of that one.

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  15. bookie: Are you serious?

    No - but you have to admit that management does have trouble dealing with more than one thing at a time...

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  16. jdrevenge: No, Seguin is not six months younger. He's two months younger- Hall being born November 1990 and Seguin January 1991.

    Hall was also not 'unimpressive' at the World Juniors.

    Draft Year WJC

    John Tavares- 6 GP, 8-7-15
    Taylor Hall- 6 GP, 6-6-12
    Sidney Crosby- 6 GP, 6-3-9
    Steve Stamkos- 7 GP, 1-5-6
    Dany Heatley- 7 GP, 2-2-4
    Joe Thornton- 7 GP, 2-2-4
    Rick Nash- 7 GP, 1-2-3
    Jonathan Toews- 6 GP, 0-2-2
    Vincent Lecavalier- 7 GP, 1-1-2

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  17. Bugg.

    thanks for clearing that up. Admittedly I've been off the bandwagon for all things hockey since about January. I am a super fan but f*ck was this year depressing.

    Seeing that made me feel a whole lot better about things.

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  18. I hope we lose; it's the only way we're guaranteed to choose Seguin.

    I could have missed something, but won't he be there at #1?

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  19. Hall was great at the WJC and while Seguin didn't make the team neither did Matt Duchene and he worked out.

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  20. I'm excited about the first pick, but we know we're getting either Seguin or Hall. You can't go wrong with either.

    I'm wondering who our second pick will be I'd love to start up talk about the midrange players on this draft that we could go for.

    I'm guessing it will be one the huge d-man that are available. They seem to be the flavour of the draft. 4 or 5 of them in the top 30 this year.

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  21. Hall was good with Eberle in their limited time on the ice together at the WJCs.

    I wish I'd seen more of Seguin on the ice though, because I like his attitude and theoretical potential more.

    I'm worried about Hall topping out early. That is still the primary reason I might not draft him.

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  22. Hoping we win the lottery, but thought I'd make my horse clear: convinced that Hall will end up being more of a difference maker at the NHL level than Seguin. Happy with either player though.

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  23. The Oilers "hard" work is done. They have a top two pick in this draft, where the top two players are roughly equal.

    I prefer Seguin, but Hall is fine too.

    Now if this had been a draft where #1 is better than #2, instead of #1A and #1B, we all would be nervous wrecks today.

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  24. I'd like to see us get the top choice because where others might screw it up, I think Stu MacGregor keeps us from shooting ourselves in the foot.

    Would be interested though on where you'd slot Seguin and if you'd let him spend another year in juniors. Barnaby was saying last week on TSN he thinks Seguin benefits from another year at that level.

    Also, if we do pick Seguin, does he become the eventual #1C with Gagner the 2C and Horcoff the 3C (leaving Pou/Bru/FA to battle for the 4C)?

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  25. The answer is 5. It is always five.

    I'm disappointed in your Bar Qu, everyone knows the answer is 42, it's always 42.

    Hall was un-impressive at the WJHC and Seguin didn't even make the team. I'm a little worried.

    JD, as Mr. Bugg pointed out Hall did very well at the WJC for his age. Most elite players do not put up monster numbers at the WJC or don't go to the WJC since they usually only make the WJC team when quite young (underage pretty much). When they're old enough to impact the WJC they're already drafted and elevated don't get to go and dominate.

    In fact most players that dominate the WJC do so because they're not as good and don't get elevated as quickly so they come back as older players. Slaney mentioned in an interview that the weakest D on his team was Niedermayer, and he was the youngest guy there and pretty much that was his only WJC before New Jersey tagged him. Slaney was an all star for Canada, and never did stick in the NHL.


    Someone else mentioned Brett Connolly before and how the Oilers should get a mid 1st round pick to snag him, which I thought was fantasy since Conolly was easily in the top ten with a bullet. That he's only played a handful of games and still hovering around the top 5 speaks to the ability of this kid, he's very intriguing to say the least. I would be very happy if the Oilers had another top 10 pick and could grab Brett, but I'd gladly settle for Kabanov at 31st overall.

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  26. I don't care who wins as long as it's not Columbus. Whoever we don't take needs to end up in the east!

    So, the way this year is going, I've probably guaranteed the Blue Jackets win and take whichever player ends up the better one. (They'd take Seguin, right? Here, Rick Nash, we finally got you a centre. As Ales Hemsky weeps.)

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  27. Is there any indication of whether this hip problem of Connolley's is going to be chronic or not?

    That alone would scare me off if I was picking in the first half of the first round.

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  28. Has a player that didn't make the World Junior Team in his draft year been drafted 1st overall? Take the size. I admit it might be better off if we lose the lottery simply because if we win it the hockey world wide media spotlight will shine directly on the Oilers. That will expose all the rats scurrying to abandon ship. It also means that Lowe will re-appear every day in his Armani suits and Bumbleenni will mumble, bumble and fumble his way thru more interviews. Really hard to think positive about all this isn't it?

    *removes sharp objects from drawer*

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  29. Now if this had been a draft where #1 is better than #2, instead of #1A and #1B, we all would be nervous wrecks today.

    Oilfans can sweat that next year.

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  30. I'd be willing to bet Oilers management is hoping they fall to the second overall position just to take the pressure off. It's so much easier to come back later and justify repeatedly that the player they REALLY wanted was already gone and "we took the BPA." "We tried to trade up to grab our guy but the Souray + EMo offer, which we thought was more than fair fell through at the last moment." Zero confidence from this side that these guys could get it right given a choice between two, (even if it was LaFleur and Orr in the 1, 2 slots).

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  31. Will the oilers number 1 pick automatically join the big club next season or will they spend some time in the minors?

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  32. Has a player that didn't make the World Junior Team in his draft year been drafted 1st overall?

    Steven Stamkos

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  33. Tis far better to beg for forgiveness later than to ask for permission beforehand

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  34. Souray audio is up. It sounds like the Spector article was carefully planned out and deliberate.

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  35. Rampage: You sure about that? I have some pretty distinct memories of Stamkos and Doughty on the same WJHC team in their draft year.

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  36. I believe Stamkos played in the 2008 WJC and was drafted the following June...no?

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  37. my bad. I looked at his nhl page and it doent say anything about it but I checked the roster and he was on it

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  38. Tencer's latest tweet:

    Quinn on Souray: "If you don't wanna play here, don't screw around, get the hell out."

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  39. I dunno, for every highlight-reel play I saw from Hall, I saw a play that betrayed a possible lack of vision or awareness: a stupid offside, a pass to nowhere (or turnover), bad use of his linemates.

    Then again, he was 17 in a 19-year-old's tournament. Make of that what you will.

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  40. Has a player that didn't make the World Junior Team in his draft year been drafted 1st overall?


    I'm not 100% sure on whether Erik Johnson (2006) played in his draft year, but Marc-Andre Fleury (2003) for sure did not play in his draft year. Two silver medals the years following.

    Also, Pat and Quain...That little exchance at the beginning of the thread was absolutely hilarious. Very similar to what Down Goes Brown is pumping out. Love it.

    There was a nice article in my local paper today, we actually have some decent MSM writers in my neck of the woods, that mentioned Cody Hodgson's apparent dissention from the Canucks ranks. The Canucks medical staff found a new back problem in a physical a couple days past, so Hodgson won't be reporting to Manitoba for the playoffs. We were really counting on him to provide offense, and the Canucks brass aren't pleased with his decision to rehab back in Toronto instead of Vancouver. Quoting Tim Campbell:

    Hodgson and the Canucks had a falling out of sorts during the season over the youngster's back problems and treatment. He missed more than half the year recovering from that injury. Arniel [Manitoba head coach] said Monday he was under the impression Hodgson would not be staying in Vancouver for the current round of treatment, likely fanning the flames even further.

    If this is indeed the case, I'm making the call to BC almost immediately. Hodgson-Eberle was a dominant pair in last year's WJC and I won't soon forget Hodgson's attention the the defensive side of being a C. Do you think a package of Cogliano and Nash (BC native) get us into conversations?

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  41. //Souray audio is up. It sounds like the Spector article was carefully planned out and deliberate.//

    It is in Souray's interest to destroy his own value in a trade, to make it more likely he can end up where he wants to be, since his no movement clause has expired.

    It also puts pressure on the Oilers to get rid of him.

    Setting himself on fire adds two new possible ways for exit which benefit Souray.

    1) The buyout.
    2) Recall waivers.

    Souray is certainly no dummy. He's played and continues to play Kevin Lowe for a fool. He got the contract nobody else would give him, and now he's throwing Lowe under the bus (whether deservedly or not) to speed his own exit.

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  42. Clarkenstein: Since Canada started sending all-star teams in the early 80s, only 2 players haven't made their WJC team and gone 1st overall. Mats Sundin didn't make Sweden in 1989, which I would guess would be because he was playing in a lower league at the time and might have been considered too raw. Ed Jovanovski also was considered a bit of an unfinished product when didn't make Canada in 1994. He was also a late bloomer who was an OHL rookie that season after getting passed over in the OHL draft his first year of eligibility.

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  43. If they can't dump his salary outright then they should just keep Souray. Let him be miserable while the team rebuilds.

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  44. Might as well keep Souray here if we can't move him for something useful...besides, he'll be hurt and on the IR before we know it and we'll have his cap space to play with anyways.

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  45. As another point, I don't think we should ignore the playoff numbers when evaluation Seguin and Hall from a statistical point of view. It's just more data to help frame the situation better. The combined numbers are as follows.

    Hall 65 49-73-122 +58
    Seguin 72 53-63-116 +12

    And for my own interest, I wanted to see how Hall and Seguin matched up against the top teams in the OHL, as that subset of games is the closest thing to pro competition they'll have in junior. There were a clear group of 5 top end teams in the OHL this year, so they were who I chose as competition. I did Seguin with and without Windsor, since they obviously couldn't be a common opponent.

    Hall 8 5-11-16 +3
    Seguin (w/o Windsor) 11 11-10-21 +10
    Seguin (w/ Windsor) 22 17-15-32 Even

    If you don't look at the games against Windsor, considering the team context, Seguin looks better. But come playoff time, the Spitfires clearly had his number.

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  46. All of this mention of management being uncommunicative evokes Peca's comments about not even being approached by them after the run...

    It's funny, you'd think that as an ex-player Lowe would be particularly in touch with the personalities in the room, rather than simply acting as an asset manager. But, as he always says, "Fellas, it's just business."

    'Unfortunately', business does have its human considerations, Mr. Lowe.

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  47. I keep him on the team and then I send him to the fucking minors for the year and let him ride the bus.

    If I'm Katz, do I get more pleasure from buying a small island in the Bahamas, or fucking over Souray? Because there's still something like nine million dollars left on his contract.

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  48. Kyle Beach led the WHL in goals during the regular season; scored a goal per game (7) in the playoffs.

    He did not make the WJHC team - was not even invited.

    So I do not use the WJHC team as a criteria...

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  50. Lowe did a good job keeping in touch with Glencross, too.

    Think about that one. Glencross was happy to play in AB. He was waiting to hear from Lowe and would've taken a pretty low amount to resign. It didn't happen.

    Our management does this: they disrespect the players and it costs them in the end. You can try and blame the "whiny" entitled millionaire players, but when it happens with more players here than elsewhere, over multiple years, maybe the problem is management after all. If NHL'ers like Souray are entitled babies,so what? It's not relevant. Your job is to manage NHL players well, including the millionaire whiners.

    Given managements record, it's reasonable to conclude that Souray was telling the truth. (That's what's interesting here.) Anything else about Souray's motivations to drop his trade value are sheer hypotheticals, without evidence, and quite frankly a bit of paranoia. (Is Souray Lex Luthor, planning his trade, or just a pissed off hockey player.)

    I worry that some of this Souray bashing is the sheep gathering around the pigs.

    Baaahh! Baahhh! Souray bad! Baaah! Four legs good, two legs better! Baaah! Baaah!

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  51. I'm just glad we managed to do one thing well this year: finish last to ensure a top 2 pick.

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  52. The answer is 5. It is always five.

    I'm disappointed in your Bar Qu, everyone knows the answer is 42, it's always 42.


    Blast. I knew I had forgotten to carry the one.

    BTW, I know it is only day two of Souray-gate, but I think that horse is almost dead. Some of us think he did a good thing and some of us think he is a @%%^&&!!. I don't know that arguing hypothetical motivations is going to persuade anyone. I'm not telling you to stop arguing it, but just that I am weary of the debate.

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  53. Kinger:

    Yes, this will be the first time all year that the Oilers actually play with some balls.

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  54. I don't know that arguing hypothetical motivations is going to persuade anyone.

    I personally don't even think his motivations factor into it at this point. He could be the biggest prick in the NHL, but even a broken clock is right twice a day, and we've seen enough to know this management group sucks. Like I said before, if he needs to be shown the door, then great, but he's not the only one. Get Uncle Phil in here, he can throw Souray, K-Lowe, and Tambo all out the door.

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  55. This is what I hear whenever management speaks:

    Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, just be good little fans and drink our Kool-Aid, and renew your seasons tickets, we have a 97% renewal rate you know.

    All the players who ever left here are bad, very bad, for wanting to leave our little family.

    They are all dressing room cancers anyhow, not team players,

    and are greedy.

    We never make mistakes, we do everything perfectly, its just you know, injury problems, and some bad luck.

    New talent coming in, big big changes, next year will be better.

    We'll be competitive next year and make the playoffs, life will be good then.

    Trust the Oracle with 6 rings. Six more rings than you have.

    Believe.

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  57. If I'm Katz, do I get more pleasure from buying a small island in the Bahamas, or fucking over Souray? Because there's still something like nine million dollars left on his contract.

    Probably fucking over Souray because he's already got a small island in the Bahamas.

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  58. kris, by all the early accounts, GlenX was looking for around $1.8 mil initially, so I don't think it was that clear cut.

    That being said, while they were right to not give him that, they probably should have actually negotiated with him.

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  59. Given managements record, it's reasonable to conclude that Souray was telling the truth.

    Just like it's reasonable to conclude that Souray was telling the truth that after 15 days of free agency, there was a team offering more money to Souray than the Oilers were?

    I don't think he intentionally lowered his trade value, I just don't think he gives a shit period and likes to hear himself talk. Lowering his trade value was just an offshoot of that.

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  60. can't believe no ones mentioned those legs yet....yikes!

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  61. can't believe no ones mentioned those legs yet....yikes!

    She's no Crosby.

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  62. can't believe no ones mentioned those legs yet....yikes!

    Whose, Crosby's?

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  63. This is what I hear whenever management speaks

    Wow, you listen poorly.

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  64. kris, by all the early accounts, GlenX was looking for around $1.8 mil initially, so I don't think it was that clear cut.

    Glencross is on record stating he called Lowe himself, and left messages to discuss the contract, and those call were never returned.

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  65. Wow, you listen poorly.

    Which means it's a lot closer to the truth.

    Unless we want to go back to last year's Tambellini press conference and see how it shaped this year's huge, tough on the puck team.

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  66. I don't know if I'm reading your numbers wrong or what, but I think it still shows Hall with the better numbers. Seguin had played more games against the top 5, and when you're talking about 8-11 game samples, 3 games is a fair bit.

    Hall was at 2PPG while Seguin was just under that (even moreso when you include the Windsor games).

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  67. I just hope we win the lottery tonight so we have more room to trade down and rid ourdelves of Hemsky's disasterous contract.

    Damien Cox is a genius.

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  68. I just hope we win the lottery tonight so we have more room to trade down and rid ourdelves of Hemsky's disasterous contract.

    I think we could manage that whether we win the lottery or not, though if we win we might be able to unload Penner's too.

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  69. I can hardly wait to watch those bingo balls come down, and then hold my breath while Bill Daly or somebody checks off the four numbers to a probability table. How exciting can you get! It's about as thrilling as watching the out of town scoreboard and hoping it's not a three-point game or something.

    That said, it's the closest thing we've had to post-season "action" involving the Oilers in the last four seasons, so might as well tune in.

    Anyhow, lets see, divide by the number of times Bruce has writeen a positive comment about Storini.
    Hmm, impossible to add infinity.

    Oh wait, subtract the number of times Traktor has slagged Horcoff.


    BDHS: Cantor postulated an infinity of infinities. Traktor's infinity is infinitely larger than my infinity.

    Add the number of Cups that Lowe has won, subtract the number of critical stories written about Oilers' management by Edmonton media (zero so skip that step).

    Actually, you're supposed to multiply by the number of critical stories, yielding an answer of what all this talk means at this point. C'mon ye bingo balls!

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  70. I wonder if the Lowe is resisting making rebuttal to Souray until after the lottery drawing tonight? I'm surprised he hasn't blown up on 1260 already.

    Is it me? Is it me?

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  71. Tambi's response:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=525327&cmpid=oilers-twt-nhl_oilers

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  72. Tambellini's response is so short I think I'll post it here:

    Oilers GM issues statement regarding Sheldon Souray's recent comments

    Tuesday, 13.04.2010 / 6:00 PM / News
    By Edmonton Oilers Press Release
    General Manager Tambellini issued the following statement regarding the recent comments made by Oilers defenceman Sheldon Souray.

    “Sheldon’s comments are unfortunate and counterproductive, but we are going to manage through this in a responsible and professional manner. We understand Sheldon has had a tough year and he has a desire to play elsewhere. His additional comments regarding being “forced to play” when injured are far more serious and my stance is that they are demonstrably untrue.”

    Steve Tambelllini is currently in Toronto to attend the NHL LG Draft Lottery Show on TSN and will not make additional public statements regarding this issue until he speaks to the media in Edmonton on Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 pm (MT).


    -----

    His comments are interesting in that they appear to be drafted by a lawyer. The language of the denial concerning Souray's injury allegation suggests that there is at least some minor concern about any potential liability or fallout that may result from it.

    I'm moderately interested in what he has to say Wednesday.

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  76. Did we have an epic quadruple post, or did things just get rowdy in here?

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  77. Sorry, my wireless is sketchy on this side of my apartment and I accidentally posted 3 extra times. Just for future reference if you click on the header of any given blog post, you can see who deleted the comments.

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  78. Thank fucking god Pierre isn't running the draft lottery. He's been annoying as hell through the Playoff Fantasy special. Even Duthie's had enough of him.

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  79. Hehe...

    Lets go Oilers..
    Lets "Win the first"...

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  80. Haha.. BDHS just made my day...

    ".. we need to use the proper mathematics to figure this out"

    ...

    Where's my fucking slide rule!?!??!

    Anyhow, lets see, divide by the number of times Bruce has writeen a positive comment about Storini.

    Hmm, impossible to add infinity.

    Oh wait, subtract the number of times Traktor has slagged Horcoff.

    So they cancel out."

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  81. now I'm scared. I hope they don't do something stupid and not pick Hall.

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  82. Yahtzee!!!!!

    Tambellini better not sink our battleship.

    Taylor Hall: "I grew up following the Flames."

    Fuck him. I want Seguin now.

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  83. Who appears more articulate and intelligent, Taylor Hall or Steve Tambellini?

    Stan Weir save us from picking the Dumbest Player Available.

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  84. With MPS coming, they have to lean towards 1C, not 1LW.

    Mr. Seguin welcome to Edmonton, sorry about Vish, just ignore him, hopefully he'll go away.

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  85. Mr. Seguin welcome to Edmonton, sorry about Vish, just ignore him, hopefully he'll go away.

    We can only hope.....

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  86. For sanity's sake I am taking a vacation from the Lowetide blogorama..

    The No.1 pick

    The highest Eklund rating would surely predict that endless speculation over this topic (precipice) will not occur...

    Count me out,.. LT says Seguin.. despite the fact that Hall seems alright and could match up w Eberle.. but so could Tyler.. See you June 25-26 (then all the way till July 1, no doubt)

    Cheers,

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  87. Yahtzee!!!!!

    Tambellini better not sink our battleship.

    Taylor Hall: "I grew up following the Flames."

    Fuck him. I want Seguin now.


    I believe that Iginla grew up a big Oilers fan, so who's to say Seguin can't be as valuable to the Oilers? Would mean he'd play extra hard against the Flames every time he matched up with them =).

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