- Boxcars: 77gp, 13-23-36
- Shots: 123
- Plus Minus: -29
- Corsi (Rel): 0.6 (7th F)
- GF/GA ON: 32-60
- 5x5/60: 1.37 (9th F)
- 5x4/60: 2.80 (8th F)
- Quality of Competition: 2nd F (toughest C)
- Quality of Teammates: 7th F
- FO Percentage: 46.4% in 1337 FO's
- Offensive Zone FO %: 45.3 (tied for toughest F)
- Cap Hit: $5.5M
- What do these numbers tell us? Horcoff used to have another C to help with the heavy lifting, but there is no Stoll and there is no Reasoner. Much of his offensive downturn can be credited to yeoman work in the faceoff circle and on the PK. He played the toughest minutes among centers on the team with third level help and the results were poor. I don't know that anyone could expect a different result considering how bad the team is overall.
- How could the numbers be better? I think the Oilers could have done themselves (and Horcoff) a huge favor by signing someone to help in the middle. A veteran, dependable center to take ownzone faceoffs and grab some of the special teams minutes from Horcoff. For all the talk about injuries, the Edmonton Oilers once again did nothing to address need. Many fans blamed Horcoff, but the real culprit is the General Manager of the hockey club. Horcoff was poor in the faceoff circle compared to his established level of ability and by eye missed more than the usual number of exceptional scoring chances.
- What about Gagner? I thought Horcoff would play fewer minutes on the PP and that in fact did happen (3:44 a game in 08-09 and 2:37 this season). The Oilers had 182 powerplay opportunities in 2008-09 and 145 chances this season, so some of the reduction came from playing on a less talented hockey team. Either way, Gagner remains a candidate to grab PP minutes and should Seguin be selected at the draft that'll be a further threat to the offensive opportunities. A UFA signing for a checker or Pouliot's good health may threaten his TOI at the bottom end.
- Will the Oilers continue to play him against tough opposition? Of course. They have no other options. Even if they sign a veteran RH C they'll rely on Horcoff in his current role. He's been good at it for some time and should be good at it again (barring injuries and decline).
- What about erosion? It really is the elephant in the room now. I wasn't critical of Lowe's signing of Horcoff then so I'm not going to get pissy now. Having said that, if Horcoff's offense continues to erode and the club ends up with a 30-point C making $5.5M then we have our "Bobby Holik is a Ranger" centerman.
- They should have kept Schremp for Horcoff's offensive role. I'll never understand this. Rob Schremp wasn't in competition with Horcoff for playing time. Even in a season when line matching was hit-and-miss Horcoff played the toughs. The PP minutes Horcoff does get are better sent to Gagner and Seguin moving forward.
- Why do you always defend Horcoff? I've never seen a reason to rip the guy. He was not an ideal candidate for the roles he was asked to fill but he gutted it out and made himself a valuable player. He emerged as a guy who could be counted on to fill a tough slot in the batting order and after doing it he was rewarded with a healthy contract. Since then we have some injuries and a team with massive holes and some goaltending that has killed his number (plus minus).
- So you have no problem predicting 60 points next season and +20? I worry about his injuries and about aging. I also believe that his offensive numbers will suffer at EVs if Hemsky isn't on his wing. Having said that, if he's healthy and can get some of that footspeed back (which may be related to injury) then yes I think he can have a 60 point season. Confidence and health could help him in a big way.
- Well, what if his offense is gone and he's just a checker? The Oilers will have an expensive 3line C.
By The Numbers
- 06-07 5x5 per 60m: 1.52
- 07-08 5x5 per 60m: 2.59
- 08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.59
- 09-10 5x5 per 60m: 1.37
By the Numbers
- 06-07 5x4 per 60m: 4.87
- 07-08 5x4 per 60m: 4.00
- 08-09 5x4 per 60m: 3.68
- 09-10 5x4 per 60m: 2.80
Performance in 2009-10: 77gp, 13-23-36 (.468)
Projected Role on 2010-11 Oilers: Center playing the tough minutes
The numbers tell me that Horcoff does not shoot nearly enough for a guy with his role(s) and icetime. He seemed to be playing hurt especially early in the year. For a pro with his ability on the dot and reputation for strength and conditioning, his drop in FO% probably indicates a shoulder or back injury.
ReplyDeleteHe was an exceptionally fast center, and I worry that he has lost a step. In years past, he would get to a loose puck ahead of everyone shield the defender with his body and hit the point man all the time. That sort of play was missing this year. Linemates count obviously but his quickness to the puck hasn't been the same.
Hopefully he isn't too nicked up to bounce back and can be an expensive and exceptionally good 3C (without JFJ) and the new team captain.
Bob McKenzie's scout poll list is out on TSN. Suggests that most scouts still have Hall on top. Seems to have less content this year than in years past.
ReplyDeleteThis year was terrible. He blew a tire. Sounds like an expensive 2-3 C. Probably won't look that bad on a better team.
ReplyDeleteI blame Souray for Horcoff's season, Pronger too!
ReplyDeleteKarl Wallenda of The Flying Wallendas?
ReplyDeleteThe thing that I don't get about Edmonton fans vis a vis Horcoff and for that matter many Oiler players, is how much they loathe him. I mean, they absolutely hate the guy.
ReplyDeleteHere's a guy who came in as a nobody and worked like a dog to get better. Nobody works harder. In the Cup run in 06 he was probably the most valuable forward. He played through the flu, he did everything asked of him. That season he was almost a ppg player while playing the best the opposition had to offer.
He had an off year the following season and then he absolutely tore the cover off the ball in 2007/2008 and so management made a bet and at the time there wasn't a lot of dissent about paying a guy who could do it all and before he got hurt in 2008 was on pace for ~ 35 goals.
It wasn't like the guy was a bum. He was a damn good hockey player.
Has he struggled the last two years? Yep.
Is his contract going to be an anchor going forward? It might be and that surely does suck.
But I don't get why some fans take it so personally. The guy is about as far from a prima donna as you can get. He's a lunch bucket guy. Doesn't matter. Guess its the visor and the fact that he's a dirty Red.
He's blamed because he's not a Tier 1, Franchise Player, Elite Level True First Line Centre.
ReplyDeleteIt was fun reading something about Horcoff that was so balanced, rational, and measured. Too bad the comment thread likely won't stay that way.
ReplyDeleteI'm liking the theme you have going on with the titles you're using for these posts, and there's potential for some comedic gold as you work your way down the roster. I'm anticipating a couple players in particular.
Now that I think about it ...... Horcoff gets blame because he is the living embodiment of Oiler management ineptitude. He is a real solid 2nd line center and off of an extremely thin history of scoring like an elite center....he gets a very very good and long contract.
ReplyDeleteI have never questioned his committment, effort or ancilliary skillset. I just believe that he is being paid too much now and, for all of you who flip flop on salary $$ / cap hit, he is going to have a crippling cap hit at age 36 when he is scoring 26 pts per season
Signing him coming off of a season-ending injury was definitely risky, and unfortunately it didn't pan out. Just one more side effect of the Ryan Smyth trade - the org was too gun-shy to let Horc play out the last year of his deal and see how he bounced back.
ReplyDeleteHe's a lunch bucket guy
ReplyDeleteYou nailed it right there. People think he should be making 1/3rd what he is making because he doesn't have the type of puck skills typically reserved for that type of salary - no matter the results when he's on the ice. There's also a perception (which is probably correct) that other teams aren't putting out players to shut down Shawn Horcoff.
People hate Horcoff because fans in Edmonton cant get around the fact that some people make a lot of money playing hockey. It pisses me off actually. If you dont like how much money athletes make - dont watch hockey.
ReplyDeleteI see it all the time at games. Random fan sitting beside me is so blinded by Gilberts salary that it doesnt matter what he does during the game hes a "soft, no hitting pussy who makes 5 million a year." (his words not mine, i know his cap hit is 4 million).
I blame Souray for Horcoff's season, Pronger too!
ReplyDeleteBeat me to it.
Horcoff for the most part has an ugly year, and I've been on him hard that he's a checking line C. This team would be better off if he stayed there regardless of his pay.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff is dying for a player like MPS, a player that will drive wide with the puck while Horcoff can find that soft spot in the slot, now he just has to be more consistant with his one-timer.
Danger Man: You've got it exactly backwards. MPS would benefit from playing with Horcoff, an actual NHL player. No matter the talent level, MPS is going to need some help when he gets here.
ReplyDeleteLT: Hmmm. I mean, every arrows point in the sense he wasn't very NHL this season.
ReplyDeleteI mean, don't get me wrong, competition was tough, teamates suckers, but he still was one of the worst players, and the worst player enjoying everyday top 6 and PP.`
As for MPS/Horcoff, they will probably both benefit from each other.
LT: Fair enough, I think they would help each other. They have styles that would complement each other.
ReplyDeleteBut its part of the reason I want MPS over here.
@dangerman.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff is dying for a player like MPS, a player that will drive wide with the puck while Horcoff can find that soft spot in the slot, now he just has to be more consistant with his one-timer.
He is consistent.
He is consistent.
ReplyDeleteConsistently AWESOME? You're right, he is CONSISTENTLY AWESOME!
FUCK I LOVE SHAWN HORCOFF.
He had an off year the following season and then he absolutely tore the cover off the ball in 2007/2008 and so management made a bet and at the time there wasn't a lot of dissent about paying a guy who could do it all and before he got hurt in 2008 was on pace for ~ 35 goals.
ReplyDeleteAs I remember it, most of the Oilogosphere (me included) was okay with it, but the fan on the street was enraged (much more so than by the Souray or Khabibulin signings - after all, those guys have been in ALL-STAR GAMES!).
much more so than by the Souray or Khabibulin signings - after all, those guys have been in ALL-STAR GAMES!).
ReplyDeleteSo, umm, do you remember where Horcoff blew out his shoulder?
So, umm, do you remember where Horcoff blew out his shoulder?
ReplyDeleteApparently not.
I'm just going to pretend that I thought that the extension was signed before that.
I'd love to know the splits on the guy, pre and post Olympic break. He seemed to get to -30 pdq and if he finished -29 h must have been around even for the last 2 months. Playing with Moreau and Pisani, that's no small feat. By eye he seemed a little better too. Does anyone have his pre and post break #'s?
ReplyDeleteGood question:
ReplyDeleteFor Horcov haters out there, Why do you hate him so much? Please, I am actually interested by this.
He didn't ask to the best center on this team. You can't blame the contract on him. What has he done wrong to absorb all the vitriol.
He was 21gp, 4-9-13 E to end the season.
ReplyDeleteI think 10 is a great player, and I really like the fact that he is an Edmonton Oiler.
ReplyDelete10 is not a bad, bad man.
10 is overpaid.
He should have better results away from Hemsky than he does.
But, lord love a duck, playing with 22 and 19 as much as he did, is enough to drive Hank Sedin into a hole.
In 08/09 it was clear that Hemsky was much better with him, and he much better with Hemsky given the stats posted at http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/, a site which is now dead, but had pts/20 with any given player on the team couple with any other player.
83 played his best with 10, and 10 played his best with 83, and it wasn't close.
You know, if Vish was smart he would have put one last year at 1.5 at the end of 10"s contract, in which he would be 37 years old, and the cap hit would have been 4.07 and he wouldn't get talked about even 80% of what he does now.
The Oilers were smart to tie 10 end until the end of his career. They were stupid to do it for what his cap hit is.
Maybe LT will make a post about this, but Bob McKenzie has his updated top ten for the draft.
ReplyDelete1. Taylor Hall LW 6'1" 185 (OHL)
2. Tyler Seguin C 6'1" 172 (OHL)
3. Cam Fowler D 6'1" 190 (OHL)
4. Erik Gudbranson D 6'4" 195 (OHL)
5. Brett Connolly RW 6'2" 190 (WHL)
6. Brandon Gormley D 6'2" 185 (QMJHL)
7. Nino Niederreiter RW 6'2" 201 (WHL)
8. Ryan Johansen C 6'2" 192 (WHL)
9. Alexander Burmistrov C 5'11" 157 (OHL)
10. Derek Forbort D 6'5" 198 (NTDP)
In his commentary, he states 7 of the 10 scouts had Hall #1. The gap between Fowler and the players behind him has closed. The top 5 were on all 10 lists. And Gormley and Niederreiter were on 9 of 10. So there seems to be consenus top 7before things open up. So if Tambellini does want another top 10 pick, the value of the pick seems to drop off after #7.
LT I am with you here.
ReplyDeleteI was pissed this year when he was out there, obviously playing hurt. Hemmer was out the season was pretty much a wash (the imbalanced line-up was showing it's true stripes by that time).
The guy couldn't take faceoffs. The case of Horc is one of the big reasons I'm glad Souray fired some shots. It's a problem that the MSM didn't even really address.
Khabi out in November
Hemsky out late november
Early NOvember Horc out for 4...comes back after that and was obviously playing hurt after Hemsky was down.
Seriously? The season was a wash by that point but no, management were prolly 'pushing' to get him back out there (Hey they have no other proven center with defensive skills). The guy has no desire other than to prove himself. I seriously shake my head at the level of disdain pointed at him.
When you are obviously falling out of the race who in the hell would push their race horse (who was not 100%)?
Morons that is who.
Matt said...
ReplyDeleteGood question:
For Horcov haters out there, Why do you hate him so much? Please, I am actually interested by this.
He didn't ask to the best center on this team. You can't blame the contract on him. What has he done wrong to absorb all the vitriol.
Why on earth, or "Lordy" in LT's parlance do you assume that people who question Horcoff and his role on the team "hate" him.
He's a guy who has worked his ass off to become an exceptional NHL player but thrust into a role he can't handle.
It's not his fault and never has been.
The issue is those who have projected him into a role that is far above his skill level.
Lowe is guilty of this, and so is Katz apparently, and almost everyone who posts here.
He's an exceptional checking centre, nothing less and nothing more but the attempts to cast him as a legitimate #1 centre based on very small sample sizes are laughable and leave the credibility of anyone who insists on continuing the myth in tatters.
Next time you feel a need to cast him in that role, spend some time comparing his career to Henrik Sedins'.
They have some similarities but they also have some huge differences.
If you can't handle that task, I'd be happy to help.
"Good question:
ReplyDeleteFor Horcov haters out there, Why do you hate him so much? Please, I am actually interested by this."
I can't speak for the rest but a large portion of my hate for 10 comes from ever changing goalposts and dishonest blog entries with the goal of defending yesterdays opinion rather than shedding light on the subject.
Or guys that, once again, made a poor off-season bet and are more interested in covering their own ass than looking at the longer term.
ReplyDeleteDon't have my full spreadsheet available, but this is pretty close to the full (recorded) season.
ReplyDeleteScoring chances for 63 games played:
For/Against:
Horcoff - 238/303 (-65)
Horc + JFJ - 53/73 (-20)
Horc + Moreau - 51/105 (-54)
Horc + no-18/22 - 134/125 (+9)
I know some people think a guy making $5.5MM should be able to carry around two corpses and kill tough competition, but well, I disagree with you. The degree of difficulty on this guy's back is astounding. The majority of those positive numbers aren't even with Penner, they're with Nilsson and Comrie.
There's no reason this team can't succeed with Hemsky-Horcoff and Penner-Gagner making up the top two lines.
I do not have an issue with people suggesting the contract is likely a bit of an overpay (considering the year it was signed and the term I think maybe a 1/2 mill).
ReplyDeleteBUt it was a gamble given the fact he was injured and such. A gamble this team has ended up on the wrong side of the coin everytime other than possibly Penner (souray, khabi, horc and nylander). If Tamblow were shooting dice I would put my house up on the do not pass line.
Quann:
ReplyDeleteWhy don't you tell us what Penner's numbers look with and without Horcoff?
By my count most players looked better without Horcoff on their line this year.
Sorry one correction:
ReplyDeleteGilbert also likely covers his bet over the term. But the break even or potential gain on those does not come close to the loss on the others.
I didn't like the Souray contract but last year my friends were starting to rub it in. All I could say is 5 and a half for 1 good and 1 bad season, I liked my odds for the last years of that contract.
You've said it before this team does not have many bodies that can really out perform their contracts. WHen they drop 2 mil+ per on Brule I won't be shocked
Sorry, I'll shut up now.
I don't have the chance numbers but they track Corsi pretty well.
ReplyDeletePenner without Horcoff - 49.4% of Corsi events were plus.
Penner with Horcoff - 52.5% of Corsi events were plus.
I would suspect that Penner's ice time was easier without Horcoff than with him.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteI posted this last week.
I have no problem admitting Penner looks better without Horcoff, I'll argue it's because Penner-Horcoff got tougher matches than Penner-Gagner/Brule/etc., you'll argue Horcoff sucks, it's fine, it's a philosophical disconnect that's never going to be solved.
Can we at least agree that his season looked especially horrible given that he didn't get to play with decent players? He was a 56% with Hemsky & Penner. He was sub-40% with Moreau & Pisani. There's literally no middle ground where he got significant time with two average forwards.
And I'll be completely honest, I forgot all about 91 while doing this chart.
As per why Horcoff haters exist (not Horcoff assessors who question the value of his contract, but rather actual haters).
ReplyDeleteEssentially they are simple minded people who need simple black/white descriptions of the characters in their lives. They use this as a heuristic to address their mental shortcomings. Every year they pick one or two 'goats' and that satisfies their simple little brains.
quain:
ReplyDeleteI have no problem admitting Horcoff's numbers took a dive partially because who he played with. That's just common sense.
But by the same token when someone argues that Ales Hemsky is the biggest reason for Horcoff's success it is usually met with hostility.
I have a question... Hopefully someone here can answer...
ReplyDeleteIf Eberle had been called up and finished the season on the Oilers active roster, does that affect his ELC and when he reaches RFA/UFA status?
I know there's a 10-game rule. But, are there any other stipulations?
I know some people over at the sportsnet boards were voicing their disappointment in not seeing Eberle for a couple of games. Just wondering if there's more to it than having him get his at-bats in the AHL.
I'm pretty sure his ELC kicks in next year whether he plays in Edmonton or OKC. Just wondering if this scenario had any bearing on the decision to keep him in Springfield.
But by the same token when someone argues that Ales Hemsky is the biggest reason for Horcoff's success it is usually met with hostility.
ReplyDeleteThere's a reason for this, I think - it's not usually presented in a reasoned sort of a way, it's presented as if Horcoff is useless without Hemsky, which is odd because Hemsky's good at evens but, subject to some serious issues with shot rate, lights out on the PP. I tend to think that there's a rather large gap between Hemsky and the rest of the dross that the Oilers had as wingers this year.
ReplyDeleteI know some people think a guy making $5.5MM should be able to carry around two corpses and kill tough competition, but well, I disagree with you.
Kill the vaunt with corpses? No.
Not get his head kicked in? Yes.
To 10's defence, his PDO was ridiculously low, at one point I think his one ice SV% was something like .850.
If he produces .75pts/gm and outscores the vaunt, then 5.5 is a good contract.
If he produces .5pts/gm and outscores or saws off vs. the vaunt, the contract is probably sound, but a slight overpay, especially in the last few years of the contract if he continues to decline.
If he produces less and gets outscored, then, its not a deal.
To those who are given much, much is expected.
Do you have his Corsi with and without 22/18 for the whole year?
That would be interesting.
At the end of the season, I think we can say he has thrown to the wolves with sheep as linemates while having one arm for half the season and got pounded.
I don't think its much of a stretch to expect a significantly improved season next year, even if OTC doesn't play him with 83.
All Corsi rates use close score shots:
ReplyDelete10 Total - 0.443
10 + 18 - 0.386
10 + 22 - 0.412
10 - 18/22 - 0.496
For reference, 0.496 would rank 4th on the team behind Whitney, Visnovsky and Stone.
Penner-Gagner-Nilsson
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Make it happen, please. I even flipped the order around so we wouldn't have to argue if he's a true first line center!
Reasons I don't like Horcoff's game:
ReplyDelete- He doesn't receive passes effectively, despite receiving them from our best passers most years
- He shoots terribly, despite great chances to shoot.
- He is not patient with the puck despite being put in places where he can be patient with the puck.
- He overskates his check in the high offensive and opposition neutral zones (though not near as much as he used to).
- He underestimates what could be done with the play. By this I mean he backs down from pressing the offence before he should.
Does this mean he's a "bad player", no, he's certainly a legit NHLer. He has a job and he can do it. He's overpaid for that job due to the market value of his skillset, but that's not my main gripe. I also happen to like his attitude, in that he's there to win the big trophy.
The way he plays the game however, is very frustrating to watch, and not as effective as it could and should be. There are some very simple things that he just does wrong to often.
I've always been a Horcoff supporter (still am), but I don't really like that every post about Horcoff seems to start with an excuse for why his performance has been down. Don't get me wrong, they're all valid (injury, playing the toughest minutes without the best linemates, luck).
ReplyDeleteI think he's been put in an unfavorable position, and that his salary and expectations don't match the role he's been asked to play, but even in his current role, we probably should have expected better results. Maybe it's just dumb luck for a lot of it, but any way you slice it, it's been a fairly disapointing season for him.
I would say I expect a better season from him next year, but as long as Tambellini is happy to have 1 centerman that his coach can rely on in defensive situations, I don't expect him to perform much better (only slightly better).
Good point, misfit...if you want Horcoff to put up first line center type of points at least put him in that role, and only that role. Give him first line talent to play with in offensive situations and then we'll see if he gets back to the levels he was at when Stoll and Reasoner were around to help with the tough minutes.
ReplyDeleteHe was obviously capable of putting up those kinds of numbers a few years ago, why couldn't he do it again when put in the same situation?
I've liked this guy since forever but if he's gonna get banged up every year then we've got a pretty big problem on our hands.
ReplyDeletePDO,
ReplyDeleteSure we like lunch pail players who bust their ass and earn their contract.
Shawn Horcoff is the club's highest-paid forward, yet he is nowhere near good enough offensively to "cover the bet" of his $5.5 MIL contract. He has to produce more, it's that simple.
Was he being utilized in a different role this season? Duh. Was this role perhaps more suited to his strengths? I'd say yes, and it's because of this that I, and many others, are absolutely pissed that he received such a contract to begin with.
Claiming that fans "hate" Horcoff for what he is doesn't get to the bottom of the issue. Fans hate that Horcoff is the highest paid forward and doesn't produce the points that he should. It was no different with Penner, who up until this season did not come close to earning his keep.
Regardless of how much he makes, I really just hate the way he plays the game. The last thing on his mind is offense, yet he's the token 1C. He doesn't hit, doesn't do corners, soft as butter on the puck, poor skater, won't park his butt in front of the net and has the worst eye hand coordination of any player I've ever seen.
ReplyDeleteHe hasn't played well for FOUR years now. Yet, his little fan club claims injuries. So tell me why on earth he was playing the last half of the season if he was so hurt? What's the excuse going to be this season?
I'm in the club that will be very disappointed if he gets the 'C'. He's had a number of years to step up and own that "C" and he hasn't embraced it at all. But he strikes me as somebody who thinks it's owed to him...which is just not the right way to rebuild a team and change culture.