Each of us has a "mental clock" in our brains that begins ticking the moment we become aware of a prospect (no matter the sport). After a few years we become impatient for said prospect to emerge as an actual NHL player. If the player is running in place, it could mean this is his ceiling, his outer marker.
Is Sam Gagner progressing?
- Boxcars: 68gp, 15-26-41
- Shots: 170
- Plus Minus: -8
- Corsi (Rel): 10.9 (2nd to Penner)
- GF-GA ON: 37-43
- 5x5/60: 1.56 (4th among regulars)
- 5x4/60: 5.74 (1st among regulars)
- Quality of Competition: 12th F
- Quality of Teammates: 1st F
- FO %: 47.4% in 709 FO's
- Offensive Zone FO %: 48.8 (4th easiest F)
- Cap Hit: $1.625M (RFA)
- What do these numbers tell us? In a season that was rife with disappointment, Gagner has some nice arrows. His Corsi is 2nd among forwards to Penner, meaning he delivered on ideal circumstances (best teammates, easiest opposition) and one suspects his 1.56/60 would have been better if this team wasn't so riddled with flu, injury etc. Gagner remains a cerebral player whose passing skills in close are ridiculous.
- How Could these numbers be better? This was a painful season for the Edmonton Oilers. Gagner played ideal minutes and delivered a fine Corsi. However, the offense wasn't as strong at 5x5 and a more experienced center would have done more. Gagner was unable to be a difference maker at EVs, and he'll need to improve because those ideal minutes are likely to be the domain of Tyler Seguin next year.
- Anything Else in this area? Age, experience and maturity. Gagner isn't a big man but increasingly we see him win puck battles and knock others off the puck. I think that's a sign of the development being made. He does have some way to go in the maturity department based on Quinn's exit interview (he said "Sam didn't get as many points as he thought he should get" and then proceeded to talk about maturity and wanting to play on the top line being an earned job). This season seemed to be about improving in underlying, subtle ways but I think his breakout offensive season is just around the corner.
- What about that PP number? We've talked about this for a couple of years now, but Gagner will eventually take away Horcoff's PP time and that 5x4 total suggests it should be now. It'll be interesting to see if the club can use both Gagner and Hemsky (similar skills) on the same powerplay and have success.
- What about Seguin? I think the OHL star could be a perfect addition for the Oilers long term. Gagner is a little older but can lend some guidance and since both are centers they can push each other for ice time. Draft pedigree suggests that Seguin will be the better player, but 89 should be superior for the first season (and possibly beyond) they play together.
- Will Quinn play him against tougher opposition? I am discouraged about Pat Quinn, but do think Gagner will play more difficult minutes in the future. I find myself thinking back to the way MacT handled Hemsky and am just this side of melancholy about the development of the current kids. Those who wanted MacTavish gone aren't going to like the future, when the 18-22 year olds don't become the players we hoped for on their draft day.
- How Important is Gagner to this team? Less important than he was a year ago. A new golden boy will be anointed at the draft and the club will have to start paying Gagner now. The Oilers will look at him with a more critical eye beginning in the fall.
- How are the comps coming? At ag 20, Vincent Damphousse was 75gp, 12-36-48 (.640) +2 on a team that was -36. At age 20, Doug Gilmour was 80gp, 25-28-53 (.663) +6 on a team that was +1. At age 20, Sam Gagner was 68gp, 15-26-41 (.603) -8 on a team that was -56. The comps look good at this time, with our guy trailing the field but still in the photo. Gagner's Oilers were a Denver boot to offense, scoring 214 total goals (Gilmour's 293, Vincent's 259) so we need to spend some time with the addiator.
By The Numbers
- 07-08 5x5 per 60m: 1.96
- 08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.69
- 09-10 5x5 per 60m: 1.56
By The Numbers
- 07-08 5x4 per 60m: 3.88
- 08-09 5x4 per 60m: 3.12
- 09-10 5x4 per 60m: 5.74
Performance in 2009-10: 68gp, 15-26-41 (.603)
Projected Role on 2010-11 Oilers: Skill C, increased PP time
Gagner will be fine don't read too much into the numbers.
ReplyDeleteI'm excited at a potential Seguin-Gagner combo, however I'm wary of being too excited because in a potential midget purge, Gagners the one who can get us the most value back.
ReplyDeleteAll the same, the comparison to Killer holds up well on the offensive end, especially considering the teams they played for. Gilmour had 3 players on that team score 80+ points that year, with Federko chalking up 107. With that in consideration and the horrid state of the Oilers this year, a -.060 PPG might actually make Samwise look better as a scorer.
Keep in mind: STL 83-84 - 293 GF EDM 09-10 - 206 GF
However, it looks like Gilmour was already miles ahead on the defensive end - not just to Gagner but most of his team - at 20 years old. According to hockeydb, he was the highest +/- of the top 8 scorers on his team, and one of only two pluses among them. He was also fourth on the team in +/- with one of the players above him (Doug Wickenheiser) numbers being pumped up by playing on Montreal before coming over to the Blues.
If Gagner can add the element of defense that Killer always had we're looking at a very important player. Otherwise, we might be looking at another Marc Savard. Which isn't bad, but isn't quite another Douggy.
If the offense stays a little dry for a couple years like it did with Gilmour (next 2 years were 57 and 53 points before nearly doubling to 105) but he adds that defensive element to his game we're looking at a very important Oiler. An outscorer to take Horcoffs heavy lifting, just with a helluva natural talent, could give us a damn good look.
Acumen: I think Gagner's Corsi tells us he's tracking well as a player in terms of defensive play. He isn't Oates in terms of being last in and first out of the offensive zone but he is extremely aware in this area.
ReplyDeleteI think he's going to be a very good NHL player for a long time in all three zones.
Time will tell on Mr Gagner and it's going to be interesting to see how his contract will flesh out, but how can one go wrong heading up a post with a classic Outlaws tune? Well done sir. (amazing that close to 40 years later that tune can still induce fans)
ReplyDeleteLowetide: Pardon my ignorance, but what does the Corsi rating signify? Is there a site anywhere that explains the formula or shows the Corsi of other players?
ReplyDeleteAh, the infamous derrick has arrived on Lowetide. The countdown to the inevitable old-school throw-down with Dennis begins.
ReplyDeleteLet's just hope it's not Bret Hart vs. Vince McMahon, in that we all wanted to see it in late 1997, but in early 2010, we finally did get to see it and it was total crap.
"The countdown to the inevitable old-school throw-down with Dennis begins."
ReplyDeleteSorry to disappoint Mr Bomb but it's an older, calmer, highly sedated derrick these days. Now with you on the other hand??
derrick: I'd figure you'd be pretty sedated after being humbled on the golf course so many times. No surprise there.
ReplyDelete(insert cheesy "this guy spends more time in the sand than Hasselhoff" comment here)
Acumen: Corsi is a very good measuring stick (although PDO and others are also useful, depends on preference) and it is explained here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/10/8/1076788/frequently-asked-questions-3-what
And Vic Ferrari gives us an exceptional use of the tool here:
http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/10/oiler-team-scoring-chances-and.html
Word today is that Magnus wants to sign with Edmonton but Tambellini is still evaluating things:
ReplyDeletePääjärvis father and agent Gunnar Svensson: "We still have not received an answer as to how [The Oilers] look at Magnus for next season"
"Magnus is willing to wait for a few weeks. If they say they have a plan set up for him if he comes over, he'll go over. If there's a clear indication then he'll leave."
http://etownsgreatest.blogspot.com/2010/04/is-mps-coming.html
Sounds like he is getting the Riley Nash treatment.
The Edmonton Oilers: evaluating.
ReplyDeleteHey, I'm at the Coachella Music Festival in Indio, California right now, and I ran into Dustin Penner at the beer gardens. Snapped a picture with him, he's a really nice guy in person. Chatted him up about Hall vs Seguin, and he said he'd prefer Seguin. Said a natural center would be a perfect fit for the Oil. I'm guessing he knows who he wants to play with :)
ReplyDeleteIf I'm Dustin Penner, I'm thinking the Oilers need a 1C a LOT more than they need a 1LW.
ReplyDeleteWhen talking about Gagner I think we have to be cognizant that injuries are slowly creeping into the equation.He has been missing more time in each successive season and he's been on the limp a few times this year.
ReplyDeleteGood point, jon k.
ReplyDeleteMichael: thanks for the update!
//I find myself thinking back to the way MacT handled Hemsky and am just this side of melancholy about the development of the current kids. Those who wanted MacTavish gone aren't going to like the future, when the 18-22 year olds don't become the players we hoped for on their draft day.//
ReplyDeleteThe Lowe-MacT system of handling top prospects is an ad hoc system, not conducive to long term organizational success.
The teams with long term success, New Jersey, Detroit, develop their prospects in the AHL.
It should be the exception where the NHL coach manages the develoopment of a prospect a la MacT and Hemsky or MacT and Gagner, not the rule.
I don't particularly like it that Quinn is more at the complete other end of the spectrum, and doesn't coach down to the individual player level at all, particularly because we will have an 18-year old coming.
But I certainly hope Tambellini can deliver on the promise of consistent AHL prospect development.
Not sending Cogliano to the AHL for at least 30 games was a bad organizational decision of Lowe and MacT's part. But the AHL situation was a mess, so maybe it wasn't a bad decision.
I don't think I care enough anymore to really get any new scraps with Derrick; and besides that the guy was always pretty bright when he wasn't wrong:)
ReplyDeleteand I don't know what we ever argued about but if it was Kevin Lowe than I think I won that one:)
I'm waiting for the Traktor drive-by where he calls everyone idiots and talks about Cogliano.
ReplyDeleteI have no concern with Gagner's progression as a player - although it would have been better if the Oilers had not burned a few RFA years along the way.
ReplyDeleteThe only question I have is "What in the world happened to the shoot out Superstar we saw in his 1st NHL season?"
Lowetide: Thank ya much, makes sense now. If we do end up taking Seguin (pretty please hockey Gods), I think tracking Gagner's defense becomes alot more important than his offense. It places him at an assumed position of long term 2nd line C. We know he has the offense and I'm pretty sure we can be confident that, at the least, he'll be a consistent 60-70 point player. However, if he can make his defense not only above average but a strong point, we have some serious aces in the middle for a long time.
ReplyDelete"Not sending Cogliano to the AHL for at least 30 games was a bad organizational decision of Lowe and MacT's part."
ReplyDeleteYou can send Cogliano to the AHL for 30 games or 82 games or 164 games. It doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter how many games he plays in the AHL if management is going to slot him in with Moreau once he makes the show.
How much did Pouliot's two seasons in the AHL help him? He's going to be 30 soon and will still be audition for that 3C role. Probably go 60% on the draw in camp and then will get penciled in on the wing.
The problem isn't how fast we bring players in, the problem is what we do with them once we have them.
I see we're all a) defaulting that we'll pick Seguin, and b) assuming Hall can only play LW.
ReplyDeleteMy understanding from Spitfire fans who've seen him play is Hall can (and does) play C as well. His speed is arguably better suited on the wing, but my point is maybe we shouldn't assume he can't play centre and hope for Seguin solely on that basis. Nobody seems to be projecting his role this way, but perhaps Hall could be a centre in the NHL?
Apparently a typical play is that Hall takes the draw, button hooks back and drives the puck up the left side.
Just throwing that out there.
//You can send Cogliano to the AHL for 30 games or 82 games or 164 games. It doesn't matter.//
ReplyDeleteBut in good organizations where you have a proper AHL development system, it does.
Cogliano actually didn't play much with Moreau as a rookie. Moreau was hurt.
With underage players, if you don't want to send them back to junior, you have no choice but to handhold and protect them.
But Cogliano was AHL eligible, and those players should not be "protected", per se, at the NHL level. in a good organization with an AHL farm system that isn;t a mess, those players should be in the AHL.
In a good organization with a good AHL organization, Cogliano probably would have spend a year in the AHL
On Paajarvi, the question is which is better for next season for his development as a player. The AHL or SEL.
//Apparently a typical play is that Hall takes the draw, button hooks back and drives the puck up the left side.Just throwing that out there.//
ReplyDeleteIf you can't handle the defensive responsibility of centre in junior, you certainly can't in the NHL.
Those counting numbers in junior were pick up as a wing, and Hall assuming the defensive responsibilities of a wingers.
If he had to play centre, Hall's counting numbers as a junior would be much worse. So the Hall is a centre argument is really an argument for Sequin, IMHO.
Hall is the safer pick, and the Oilers have a more immediate need at left wing. So being a LW or does not really hurt him in the decision that is coming.
I prefer Seguin, but will be happy with either.
I'll definitely be a little irked if Tambo doesn't make the Bruins pay something to draft the kid they clearly want.
ReplyDeleteHe needs to be leaking Hall rumours for the next couple months.
"I'm waiting for the Traktor drive-by where he calls everyone idiots and talks about Cogliano."
ReplyDeleteI don't think I've ever called anyone here an idiot. I leave the name calling to more intelligent posters like Vic.
From Barnes today...
ReplyDeleteTambellini will hear pitches for his first pick, but there is absolutely no doubt he will hold onto it. Bet the house and the farm, because there is psychological currency for the organization and the fan base tied into this pick. Together they suffered the indignity of falling to last place. They need the invigoration of making the first pick.
LT said...
Gagner was unable to be a difference maker at EVs, and he'll need to improve because those ideal minutes are likely to be the domain of Tyler Seguin next year.
I find it hilarious that the Oilers have yet to make their decision, but everyone else already knows who they're going to pick.
If Gagner did poorly at EV with cream puff pitching, then he could be a long way from an offensive breakout season. As he starts to face the wicked breaking shit the pitchers in the majors can throw, his Hits, Runs and Ribbies are likely to plateau while his development graduates. And if Seguin is the pick, then Gagner will have no choice but to face tough pitching whether he's ready for it or not.
Since Gagner hasn't earned his next step up yet, playing Seguin on the big squad next year might be the worst thing for his development.
And if Seguin IS on the team, isn't he just as likely as Gagner to steal PP time from Horc? If not more so?
"Cogliano actually didn't play much with Moreau as a rookie. Moreau was hurt."
ReplyDeleteAnd Cogliano produced. What a crazy coincidence.
I recall a few arguments with the regulars here over Gagner becoming a 1C. I've never held up much hope for it, from the moment he was drafted, citing his lack of skating or size or combination thereof.
ReplyDeleteBut most here disagreed, citing his hockey sense, passing and decent shot. No need to trade for Jordan Staal (back when that might have been possible), Gagner will take over from Horc when he's ready.
And these are the same people pimping Seguin for the draft.
Can we say now 3 years into his development, all at the NHL level, that Gagner is not going to be a 1C, but will be a very nice 2C? (As some of us have thought all along)
spoiler: Gagner actually did well 5x5 according to Corsi but the goals didn't cash. Given the same circumstances I'd bet $$ he has superior numbers a year from now.
ReplyDeleteEspecially if he has the same linemates for most of the games.
spoiler: I'm not pimping Seguin for the #1 slot (although he is my preference). However, when speaking about Gagner it is far more interesting to discuss Seguin since both are centermen.
ReplyDeleteAnd no, I'm not willing to agree that Gagner will never be a 1C, although these 1C-2C-3C discussions are a bit beyond my knowledge.
LT,
ReplyDeleteI think most of the interest in that discussion comes from the possible conflicts inherent to having both.
In a Quinn world (where the planet looks strangely like an onion), I don't know if there is such a thing as 1C, 2C, 3C...
What was Gagner's PDO? Does it shed some possible light on the difference between Corsi and his GF numbers? Sorry, I'd look it up myself but I'm having browser hang issues that would make the process longer than laundry.
ReplyDeleteMPS to start the season in OKC works for me. But given his age, can the Oilers send him there or is it the same thing as w/Eberle last season (big club or juniors)?
ReplyDeleteDoug Weight is progressing nicely... I expect a breakout counting number year next year and really hope he's locked up for a few years when it happens...
ReplyDelete@oilerdago
ReplyDeleteI believe there is only the under 20 rule for CHL junior age players, not other leagues, anyone feel free to correct me. MPS is in professional league despite his age.
//I think most of the interest in that discussion comes from the possible conflicts inherent to having both.//
ReplyDeleteIf having Gagner AND Seguin is a problem, Pittsburgh must be a complete disaster, with Crosby AND Malkin AND Staal.
Gretzky and Messier was a problem.
Lemieux and Francis was a problem.
Yzerman and Federov was a problem.
Sakic and Forsberg was a problem.
Datsiuk and Zetterberg is a problem.
Modano and Nieuwendyk was a problem.
Please God, please give me the Seguin-Gagner problem.
I hope MPS isn't getting the Riley Nash treatment. If he isn't playing in North America next year, I'll be disappointed.
ReplyDeleteAnd Cogliano produced. What a crazy coincidence.
ReplyDeleteI'll be the first guy to buy that the Moreau "black hole" is going to have a negative effect on ANY linemate (he's the slightly less shitty JF Jacques at this point), but Traktor, how does Moreau's presence account for this:
2007-08: 18.4
2008-09: 15.5
2009-10: 7.2
And yes, those are shooting percentage numbers. I fail to see a relationship between the drop in year three and a 215 pound bag of suck on Cogliano's LW many nights this year.
Can't wait till June comes around and we can see where (and for what) Souray is dealt for, which of the midgets get sent packing and if it's Tyler or Taylor... at which point we can begin to see what the plan for next season is.
ReplyDeletei'm concerned that very little of the "magic" that captivated us all at the super series and the shootouts, etc has gone missing from his game.
ReplyDeletesure he's augmented his defensive game, but the talent that saw him drafted as an elite offensive player appears to be diminishing, to a degree.
this reminds me of smid all over again. i've afraid samwise won't be the player he should have been until he's 24-25...which is fine and allows a lot of years for a prime career, but he doesn't look to be the impact player hemsky was early on.
i still think the best comparable for sam moving forward, is a 5'10 185lbs guy called, his dad. solid 75 point guy from 24-29 years old.
@godot
ReplyDelete"If you can't handle the defensive responsibility of centre in junior, you certainly can't in the NHL."
hall was moved to the wing, not because of defensive responsibilities but because his coach felt his speed worked better on the wing with their offensive minded dmen (ellis, fowler, etc).
at no time has the coach stated anything about him not being equipped to play defense, but rather stressed that his god-given talent of speed was a better offensive weapon when used as a winger.
two totally different things.
Thanks for the report on Penner in Indio at, where else, a Beer Gardens. I see his off-season regimen is progressing nicely. Oh wait, he does that during the season!! Aw what the hell, after his first 3 years here I think I'd be in the beer gardens too.
ReplyDeleteGagner has not had the luxury of being around winners in a Championship dressing room. The vets satisfied with being "losers" year after year are a piss poor example for any young man. Having said that, he does need to spend less time in the bars and clubs around town during the season. He needs to get stronger and faster and drinking like most of us isn't going to help that!!
@Hbomb
ReplyDeletei think you can account for some of the shooting percentage as a result of playing with moreau.
in the first two years when cogs was lumped with the "kid line" he was the "shooter" on that line and was afforded countless shot opportunities from great passers (gags and mini magic).
riffles on the other hand, refuses to pass and views a shot from the blue line as a perfectly respectable scoring opportunity. part of cogs appeal is that he can put himself into positions, with his speed, that elite passers can take advantage of.
moreau, elite and passing don't follow in my mind. as a result, cogs needed to create more on his own, which i don't believe is his strength.
i don't think this account for the fall off the side of the cliff, but i think some of it is plausible.
@clarkenstein
ReplyDeletei worked at a golf course where all the boys on the bus played and let me tell you, it was an eye opener in how 'athletes' let loose.
begrudging penner for having a beer at North America's premiere music festival...c'mon. i don't know about you, but i'm going to enjoy my spring before i start worrying about sept. good on pens!
Hockey players drink a LOT of booze.
ReplyDeleteAnd I really don't see a reason to begrudge 'em for it. They're people just like everyone else, and a guy like Penner certainly deserves to have a cold one or fifty after the season he had.