Trading Ales Hemsky isn't a new idea. Matty mentioned it a year ago. However, this spring the rumor has legs and is being reported both inside and outside the market. This tells me one of two things is happening: either the Oilers are floating the idea to see what kind of reaction they're going to get from the ticket buying public, or the Oilers management group under Tambellini has as many leaks as it did under Kevin Lowe.
Trading Ales Hemsky wouldn't be the crime of the century, but there are real questions about this management group in terms of their ability to get 100 cents on the dollar in return.
- Advantages of Trading Hemsky: The club could acquire a more physical player, allowing some of the smaller forwards (Gagner, Eberle, Brule) more prime time and 5x4 minutes.
- Disadvantages of Trading Hemsky: None of the players listed here are as good as Hemsky. I think Gagner will end up being a superior player and that Hall/Seguin are clearly going to be potential impact players. But let's be clear: no one on the roster currently will be posting better numbers from RW than a healthy Hemsky in 2010-11.
I'd bet money the Oilers are at least strongly thinking about dealing Hemsky. Penner has had a strong season, Gagner has improved and Hall is coming. Dealing Hemsky for a big, strong center or a physial winger with plus skills can be justified for a rebuilding team. However, we're as likely to see Hemsky dealt for a player and a pick, or Hemsky dealt for some guy they liked in 2006, or some guy who has been nursing an injury for 24 months.
It reminds me of the times my Dad would load up the family and drive to town in search of a new car. We'd start the day with such hope, but we drove a Valiant home every damn time.
One advantage of trading Hemsky is that we'd then be pretty much guaranteed to pick first overall again, and likely in the top 5 again the year after. (As long as we keep our goaltending at least below average.)
ReplyDeleteIf the plan is a total dumping of everyone over 25 to continue a total Pitt-Chicago-Nordiques style rebuild, well I'm okay with trading Hemsky for picks and prospects, I guess. We won't get full value, of course. But it's probably a better plan that whatever Tamb. could cook up otherwise, and it's at least a plan that they have to follow through with. On this plan, you sell Penner, too. And you better not sell anything of value for a veteran. You sign a few veteran guys as character builders, but that's it.
Somehow, I doubt this is or will be the plan though. They'll trade Hemsky + for Lecavalier and then tell us that they're piss is apple juice. Just watch.
It's worth acknowledging that Tambellini has been left with a less than desirable set of circumstances, but it would be an error on his part to deal his best asset rather than dispose of redundant ones (Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Cogliano).
ReplyDeleteI'm of this opinion in part because I generally also believe that the team getting the best player wins the deal.
That being the case, if I have to choose between selling Hemsky or selling Nilsson and O'Sullivan, and I know I'm going to get 20 cents on the dollar, I prefer to get ripped off on the assets I don't really care about.
As a last note, I'm not entirely convinced that trading Hemsky even for the Seguin or Fowler pick will yield a better player. Even the minor risk of a top 5 player busting is probably enough to scare me away from dealing the known commodity of a 70 point winger who can run a powerplay.
Jon K: from dealing the known commodity of a 70 point winger who can run a powerplay for two more years.
ReplyDeleteThere fixed that for you.
I am not for trading away Hemsky but the 2nd overall would be might enticing and you would have a player for much more than two years.
Only two ways that I could agree with this move is for the 2nd overall pick
or
Jordan Staal.
Other than that keep Hemsky for two more years and then TRY to resign
where there's smoke there is fire.
ReplyDeleteWell if we are speaking figuratively here, sometimes where there is smoke there is just smoke. Rumours are sometimes just rumours.
Nothing about Tambellini tells me that he is about floating trial balloons.
As for considering a trade of Hemsky, they damn well be better considering trading anyone in the system. They are in 30th - by a mile.
Considering and doing are two different things. Tambellini ought to be floating all the names on his roster so he knows the market for each of his players and can construct the best lineup and prospect pool.
I'll hold my criticism until I see if they trade Hemmer and what they get in return.
The one guy not responsible for any of the Oilers suckitude this year is Ales F. Hemsky. He had 22 points in 22 games, and was plus 7, despite a slow start. With him in the lineup, we could've cobbled together two decent lines. (Still wouldn't have made th playoffs with JDD in net, but still.)
ReplyDeleteI really don't see it ending well at all if (when?) we deal Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess though, I think we something revolving around Phoenix, Kyle Turris & the Calgary pick.
If Edmonton is ever going to fix its long term culture, Hemsky should not be traded. One aspect that the Oilers need to fix is their reputation for not keeping players. This is a problem that has plagued this team since Coffey & Gretz all the way through Ryan Smyth. To get players to invest emotionally into the city of Edmonton, it might be worth keeping a few around until retirement - kind of like Colorado with Sakic and Detroit with Yzerman. Of course, Hemsky would have to be amenable as well.
ReplyDeleteJon: I don't have any information as to what Hemsky might be thinking, but generally I see Hemsky being happy to play in Edmonton, hence the contract he's currently enjoying. The rumblings are that he might be impatient waiting for the team to win. I think the team can be on the upswing by the end of his contract. On that basis I don't think we should act as if it's a foregone conclusion that Hemsky will be leaving in two years time when his contract expires.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking more anecdotally, I think it's important for teams to have veterans that can teach young players. This applies to veterans in every role, whether they be checkers or skilled forwards. This was something that Ken Holland has spoken about in the past concerning team building.
Just because the team isn't going to be good for a few years doesn't mean we should jettison anyone who might be able to contribute to a winning team in that timeframe. If we have veterans who like living in Edmonton, have something to teach in their respective roles, and aren't costing an arm and a leg to retain, I think we have a lot of incentive to keep them, even if it ultimately means a risk of losing them to free agency.
Don't get me wrong though, if we can get a return on Hemsky that is likely to help the team moving forward, and carries very little risk with it, then by all means we should pursue that. The problem in my mind, as I alluded to before, is that the team sending away the best player rarely wins the deal. Seguin and Fowler are excellent draft prospects, but I would argue neither are certain franchise players, or even surefire top line players.
Hell, look at David Legward and Cam Barker. Legwand played for the Plymouth Whalers who were a decent but not great team. He put 105 points in his draft year. He was touted as a swift skating two-way centre with potential to grow. He went second overall. Cam Barker came from an offensive powerhouse team. He had the complete physical toolkit and technical skillset, but there questions about his hockey sense. He went third overall in the draft. There should be enough similarities in their situations to Seguin and Fowler's to at least suggest to you that these top picks aren't guaranteed commodities.
In my opinion you only deal Hemsky when you are getting back a young player who has an established track record in the NHL, but is either redundant in his organization or needs to be re-signed for more money than the organization is willing to give him. Obviously these situations are rare, but I don't see the sense in feeling compelled to trade Hemsky and becoming the aforementioned preyed upon team.
Good lord no. Don't trade him.
ReplyDeleteThey'l probably fuck up somehow.
At least let you a chance to compete next year. If failure comes knocking again, then go on.
Even if we did trade for a high pick.
ReplyDeleteWhy would we trade Hemsky to have a shot at Hemsky? (Well player with similar level of abilities)
That's a pretty damn good-lookin Plymouth. Whaddya say you wanted for it again?
ReplyDeleteDad?
ReplyDeleteEwwwww Plymouth.
ReplyDeleteThat's like the worse car in the world after the Lada.
Mon ami, have I got a Yugo for you.
ReplyDeleteYugo?
ReplyDeleteThey are definitely floating this idea. I went to a season ticket holder event with Tamby and when asked who the core of this team, he was very vague, said he was still trying to see who it was (who stepped up to be the core? Basically no one has) and made a mention that he wanted to see more leadership out of Hemsky in particular. I guess putting up the points isn't enough for him. But Tamby sure did not want to praise him in any capacity.
ReplyDeleteEeek, I do not like this idea at all. Hemsky is the best player on this team and it's not even close. If you can't resign him to an extension next summer, then sure, shop him. But no no no, do not trade him for magic beans.
Jon K nailed it. Neither of the top two players are shoe-in 80pt types,
ReplyDeleteso you don't trade Hemsky for either.
Tambellini does not have a track record of trial balloons.
The 71,37,24 trades, the 91 and Khabby signings, and even the aborted Heatly deal (somewhat) came as surprises of different degrees.
All that being said, you stated in the Kovalchuck trade thread that the biggest mistake was to not trade him a year earlier if he didn't agree to an extension. I agree.
The Oilers are at that point now with 27 and 83. I don't think they can afford both (maybe they can). They better figure out which one they want more, and which one wants them more.
There is no harm in listening to offers or figuring out what a top 5 pick is worth. You never know. Even smart, pragmatic Alberta farm boys can lose their mind and make bad trades when the pressure to win is intense and a job is on the line.
Yugo for you.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy...
ReplyDeleteSmart?!? Like tractor?
I can't think of a defenseman I really like in this draft, so I wouldn't be trading Hemmer for a top 10 pick.
ReplyDeleteHowever if Doughty or Myers are coming back, then !!!SOLD!!! to the man in the back with the plaid suit and white belt.
This (krazy) talk of trading Hemsky is nothing more than conjecture, but it's not unreasonable speculation, so we have to at least ponder the possibility.
ReplyDeleteAbsent an outrageous deal that wildly favours the Oilers-which Tambellini has not demonstrated a capacity for as yet-and here I'm thinking of a Doughty or a Weber (younger D who can play 26 minutes a night and whose contract is being shopped after relevant GM's lost weekend), even if we're talking Hemsky's last two years as an Oiler, this is the kind of trade bad teams make.
New York Islanders trading Luongo and Bertuzzi, Chicago trading Belfour, Roenick, Hasek and Chelios kind of bad.
Sure, the Devils can tie a can to Arnott, Gomez, Gionta, and Niedermayer and still remain competitive, but a) they have a generational talent in the pipes, and b) their front office can find its ass with both hands.
So let Hemsky stay, even if it means he's deadline fodder in 20 months, or perish the thought, walks for nothing. Those are two years he can shelter the greenhorns, and maybe they'll learn a thing or two.
Soon he'll be the only Oiler that can describe in detail this thing called the playoffs to his otherwise ignorant teammates....
Hemsky to PIT for Staal and draft Hall - that's the only Hemsky trade scenario I'm even remotely interested in.
ReplyDeleteIf Hemsky or Penner don't want to play here after their contracts are up, you have to move them anyway. Why not do it now, when their value is higher, rather than on a last year, trade deadline deal like Smyth or Kovalchuk?
ReplyDeleteThis team is not winning the cup in the next 2 years. Hemsky and Penner are both UFA's in 2 more seasons (not counting this one).
Question for the capologists out there. Is it possible to sign players to contract extentions before their final year? If so, this should be explored with Alec and DP.
Unless you know the entire story its hard to comment one way or the other.
ReplyDeleteIs Hemsky going to be here in two more years, after his contract ends and becomes a UFA?
I doubt it.
Are they going to be a Cup contending team in the next two years?
I doubt it.
Are they going to get Hemsky a supporting cast in the next two years?
I see a pattern forming here.
After watching EVERY star and super star leave this team the past several decades I see nothing different about Hemsky.
The Oilers will wring every last cent out of him before they let him walk away for nothing. They'll trade him for a bag of pucks and a few shiny rocks on the last trading deadline just to get something for him.
You have to take emotions of of the equation. This is the team where the GM said he knew he'd be tarred and feathered if he traded Smyth, and yet less than a year later did exactly that.
Riddle me this.
Name the last Oiler to retire an Oiler.
Question for the capologists out there. Is it possible to sign players to contract extentions before their final year? If so, this should be explored with Alec and DP.
ReplyDeleteNo, it would be July 1, 2011 that either one can sign an extension. That doesn't mean you can't have a handshake agreement beforehand, of course.
Name the last Oiler to retire an Oiler.
ReplyDeleteGeoff Sanderson, I believe. Oates before that. Then...Musil?
@ Boholongo
ReplyDeleteSo let Hemsky stay, even if it means he's deadline fodder in 20 months, or perish the thought, walks for nothing. Those are two years he can shelter the greenhorns, and maybe they'll learn a thing or two.
I respectfully disagree with this statement. What you are saying is that you would rather have 2 years of "sheltering the greenhorns" than the tremendous value AH would bring on the trade market right now. Some of the (not crazy) assets being mentioned here are Jordan Staal or a lottery draft pick.
This team is not winning anything the next 2 years. Why not load up for year 3.
Of course, as mentioned, this theory is irrelevant if Hemsky will sign past his current contract.
Schitzo,
ReplyDeleteWhat about the pisscutters, CFP, and Boumeister? They all signed before the contract was up...I think.
Same with Toews and Kane, signed new contracts this year while playing out the last year of their old contracts.
I could be wrong.
Also,
Sutter did a hell of a job in Cowtown and went insane athis year around Christmas. If a guy like thaty can blow it under pressure, anyone can.
Let's trade Hemsky - And the team blows for the next 3-5 years to forever.
ReplyDelete@ Matt
ReplyDeleteWhat you are saying is that you would rather have 2 years of "sheltering the greenhorns" than the tremendous value AH would bring on the trade market right now.
Yup. Someone's got to play tough minutes. Who else is going to play RW against the visiting team's best line? Nilsson? Eberle?
Let's not forget Hemsky's coming off a major shoulder surgery that would presumably have a deleterious effect on his otherwise tremendous trade value. Lecavalier is a good example of what to expect; my understanding is that he had a similar procedure done.
Sanderson played 41 games for the Oilers in his final year.
ReplyDeleteOates played 60 games for the Oilers in his final year, when he was 41 years old.
I'm talking about Oiler Oilers. Drafted by the team, or played for the team during their prime.
I don't want to seem cold hearted or anything, but after watching the parade of players leave town that we've seen leave, Hemsky is a blip.
Its part of why players don't want to be here. They know they are a slab of meat, weighed, measured, evaluated, and sold off at the moment of maximum potential.
The sad part of it is that the Director of Hockey Operations was himself, one of those pieces of meat.
It's sort of ironic.
@ Bolo
ReplyDeleteSomeone's got to play tough minutes. Who else is going to play RW against the visiting team's best line? Nilsson? Eberle?
That's easy. A quick look at cap geek.
John Madden, Jere Lehtinen, Saku Koivu, Ray Whitney etc.
All older UFA's who would be great mentors. There is 2 Selke winners and several cups amongst them. You could have any 2 of them for a 2 year deal at Hemsky's cap hit.
As well as the afore mentioned asset(s) from the Hemsky deal.
If you disagree with these specific players, there are more like them out there. As well, please remember that there is very little chance of icing a winning team in the next year or two.
WG-I'm no capologist but I think Schitzo is correct.
ReplyDeleteYou can officially negotiate an extension after July 1 of the last year of an existing deal.
How much back room chatter happens prior to that is anyone's guess.
Matt: Why would those players come to Edmonton for the beginning of a rebuild? Madden chose CHI when they were on the upswing, that's a good bet for that type of player.
ReplyDeleteLet's trade Hemsky - And the team blows for the next 3-5 years to forever.
ReplyDeleteThe team blows with Hemsky for the next 2 anyway.
I wouldn't trade Hemsky yet for the above reason.By next summer you'll get an idea of where his headspace is and what kind of next contract he is looking for.
ReplyDeleteI've got this feeling however that 1 of Penner or Hemsky is going to be dealt this summer.I can't explain it or put it into words,it's just a feeling.
Schitzo, Gerta,
ReplyDeleteMisread it, you got it.
I read it as re-signing before the contact was up, not before the player enters the last year of the contract.
Must be this new brand of glue.
I have zero confidence in management and nothing I read or see from the Oilers lately has helped much. (Tambo on TSN the other night was uninspiring to say the least)
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter who they draft or who they trade.
DeeDee, not sure if you realize the reality of the new NHL.
ReplyDeleteNotice Koivu is not retiring a Hab, Kovalev is not a Ranger, Blake is not a King, Pronger is not a Hurricane, etc. Brett Hull finished as Red Wing, Robitaille as a Red Wing, it goes on and on.
Movement post UFA status is now the norm. Don't confuse the purge of the 90's with the reality of today.
Even smart, pragmatic Alberta farm boys
ReplyDeleteWhy have I heard this before? I do find this funny because I'm pretty sure that if they exist they're riding on unicorns.
@ LT
ReplyDeleteI won't argue individual players with you. My larger point is that the "mentoring, sheltering" aspect of keeping Hemsky could be found through other means, while collecting the assets on a trade.
BTW, thank you for what you do here.
Let's go with the theory that if we throw the right players to Boston to get their pick which is #1 or #2.
ReplyDeleteThat includes Hemsky + player #2 + draft pick.
So, we grab Seguin and Hall. Add in our other forward prospects and wow, things are looking up in 2-3 years.
However, we have two other major glaring issues - one is goaltending and the other is our core of young dmen are not being talked about in the same breath as Chicago's you dmen.
Now that you traded Hemsky and maybe Penner, what assets do you have to round out your club and fill in the two gaps above ?
I would be rubbing my hands together at getting #1 and #2, even at the cost of Hemsky - my favorite player and our best offensive player. What then ?
I think it's too early to pull that deal. Just my opinion.
Matt: Agreed, you could make some smart signings late in free agency (Malhotra, etc) and come up with some solid options.
ReplyDeleteHowever if Doughty or Myers are coming back, then !!!SOLD!!! to the man in the back with the plaid suit and white belt.
ReplyDeleteThe names Tarlick. Herb Tarlick.
RE: DeeDee, not sure if you realize the reality of the new NHL.
ReplyDeleteSure I realize the reality of the new NHL.
It's the reality of the old Oilers.
I'm talking about Oiler Oilers. Drafted by the team, or played for the team during their prime.
ReplyDeleteWell, in that case, Kevin Lowe.
Regwald: Sure the N2 pick would be sweet, but management would probably get a trainload of crap coming back with it *cough* Michael Ryder *cough*
ReplyDeleteThe irony of timid little Tambellini confidently and defiantly throwing away our franchise player for magic beans -- while lacking the fortitude and insight to address even the most minor of holes on the roster during the season -- would be harder to stomach than a cheese burger in the hands of an anorexic.
ReplyDeleteIt's shit like this -- and the helpless feeling of impending doom that goes along with it -- that makes people turn to religion, NBA basketball, day-time soaps, and other things that suck.
Screw you, Tambellini.
RQ,
ReplyDeleteWhile I am a city grown many of my family are from the farm, and my previous line of work took me rural areas often.
As a subset of people types, I have never met another group who know how to think about problems better, analyze options better and run businesses better.
As a percentage of occupation, I'd wager that Alberta farmers have more millionaires than any other group (except for investment bankers)
Your comments speak to your ignorance, not theirs.
deedee, yup, except it is not just the oilers plight ... as players mature, each team will go through it.
ReplyDeleteAlso,
ReplyDeleteAs I meet more self made people who are leaders in all industries in this province a disproportionate amount grew up in rural areas.
Work ethic, self reliance, and quality problem solving are hallmarks of many rural people.
Not all are successful or smart of course, but I think a greater percentage are than a normal distribution would predict.
nice one FPB ... lol
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think calling out people from rural Alberta is (generally speaking) unwise. It happens to be a province of exceptional people from all walks of life.
ReplyDeleteWG: You're too easy.
ReplyDeleteWe're all special and unique snowflakes.
Flames about 45 minutes away from seeing their season hopes go down the drain...
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think calling out people from rural Alberta is (generally speaking) unwise. It happens to be a province of exceptional people from all walks of life.
Compared to what?
RQ: Do you really want to do this? Seriously?
ReplyDeleteWell. I'd say the Quebec Suburbs generates some quality retards.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, some people at my school are ignorant beyond belief.
I remember in a class when i got called out because i used the word covention as to in
''So is this an established fact or is this only a convention?''
The reason was : ''Could you stop using complicated words we can't understand?!''
I was like WTF.
This thread is about to get hilarious.
ReplyDeleteAs a percentage of occupation, I'd wager that Alberta farmers have more millionaires than any other group (except for investment bankers)
ReplyDeleteYour comments speak to your ignorance, not theirs.
I'm from rural southern Alberta, as is all my family for generations, pretty much all my best friends too. And as far as I can tell, Rivers teasing -and it was just razzing, I think- comments aren't entirely off base. Lots of ignorance, willful and otherwise. More than in many other places, IMO.
And I'd say the average millionaire farmer is different from the average self-made entrepeneurial millionaire in about a million ways but there's no point debating it here.
Lowetide said...
ReplyDeleteRQ: Do you really want to do this? Seriously?
Yeah, I want to hear you trash some places. Let's hear about all these other places full of people who aren't special.
I don't think you can do it.
Let the flamewar START.
ReplyDeleteBut after living the Public educational system for 1 year. I know that i'l pay the bills for my kids to go to private.
They shouldn't mix up the smart lads, and the very dumb ones.
It just slows them down and makes them so unmotivated they slowly drive away from theyr potential. Because they do senseless shit all day.
Bring back the A-B-C Classes.
Or just offer plain ''Enriched'' ''Regular'' ''Alternative path''
It's weird when i give my essay on ''The different techniques of woodcutting for a durable development''
And then the Joined 100 IQ girls give up a pile of nonsense/copypasta about how we should sell our water ''TO MAKE JOBS''.
OH DAMN!
ReplyDeleteIt's on!
Stalingrad owns.
ReplyDeleteIs this the part where everyone snears at eachother and takes turns breakdancing in the center of the group?
ReplyDeleteCalgary is a really awful place.
ReplyDeleteThere I said it.
''Is this the part where everyone snears at eachother and takes turns breakdancing in the center of the group?''
ReplyDeleteThis isn't Brooklyn's YMCA Lawl.
Heh, this is just awesome.
ReplyDeleteAs a descendant of good rural Albertan stock, I feel like I should defend my relatives. It'd be easier, though, if rural Albertans occasionally demonstrated a bit more creativity in their voting patterns: you'd think their finely honed intellects might give them the creativity or imagination to at least consider the possibility that our one-party state's government isn't providing very good bang for the buck.
And no, the whole mass of them switching parties, as a group, once every 30 or 40 years doesn't count.
I think there are very good arguments both for and against dealing Hemsky; it depends what the team wants to do over the next season or two and whether, in mangement's estimation, Hemsky will want to sign an extension.
ReplyDeleteLT often talks about clusters in drafting, I think that's an argument that could be made in favor of dealing Hemsky (and Penner?) now - if you're going to move Hemsky either now or at the deadline in 2012, it makes sense to get your picks made now in the 2010 draft.
Also, if Hemsky is dealt this summer, my money is on CLB, with their 1st and/or Filatov back in the deal.
I work 8 months a year, live comfortably, don't have to deal with office politics, am my own boss and rarely have to deal with traffic. Your move RQ ;)
ReplyDeleteHyuck
Oh, LT killed my comment. Fair enough. My ideas on rural Albertans will remain a mystery...
ReplyDeleteWhat is Hemsky's value BTW? Given the two years left on his deal and the low cap hit and the fact that he's entering his prime, can he fetch as much as the top 10-25 players in the league? Or do people round the league think like the announcers I here on other team's broadcast feeds? I hear a lot about how "Alice" Hemsky is disappointing, not a PPG player, etc.
LT, I just re-read your post. You aren`t necessarily against the idea of trading Hemsky. You just do not trust Tambo and Lowe.
ReplyDeletekris: No, it is still there. Your comment is at 9:22pm. :-)
ReplyDeleteWork ethic, self reliance, and quality problem solving are hallmarks of many rural people.
ReplyDeleteNot all are successful or smart of course, but I think a greater percentage are than a normal distribution would predict.
In all seriousness that could be true. As family farms have disappeared, an ever-decreasing number of successful farmers have bought out their less successful neighbours: the remaining big-time agricultural operators probably are smarter and more industrious than the general population.
On the other hand, it's been my experience that small towns suffer a constant brain drain as the best and brightest, the smartest and most motivated, go off to the city for university or what have you, and most don't return.
So if farmers are smarter than average, and small town residents are dumber, does it all average out?
(take this post with several grains of salt, by the way)
Speeds, I agree it all boils down to an extension for Hemsky and actually having a plan in place. I have serious doubts about both of those things happening. Maybe things will look much different in 1-2 years...
ReplyDeleteMatt: I'm not against it but generally speaking this is what really bad teams do. The Expos did this with Gary Carter, as a for instance.
ReplyDeleteYou don't see the really good teams dealing players unless they're about to leave via free agency.
speeds points about clusters is a good one, I can see dealing Hemsky for a younger player of similar quality. But, if I'm Chicago or Columbus or Atlanta, why would I do this?
The deal mentioned by PDO (PHX) and speeds (CBS) seem a more likely return.
Which means, and I'm sorry to say this because I loved the Expos, the Oilers are basically a development team and will probably spend a generation in the lottery.
Islanders west.
ReplyDeleteWe're all special and unique snowflakes.
Comprised of a speck of dirt at the core and most just fall to the ground to blend with others and eventually just melt away?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWe're all special and unique snowflakes.
ReplyDeleteIt's too bad your snowflake originated from livestock run off. ;p
Yeah, the moving the cluster/core point is a good one. But the Tamb. would probably screw the deal up is also a good one.
ReplyDeleteUntil we dump Tamb. or until he finds his GM legs, this is gonna be an ugly ride.
It would be easy to support trading Hemsky and/or Penner (mostly because of the "cluster" argument) if we'd seen any evidence that Oilers management could do it properly, or even that they had a coherent plan.
ReplyDeleteBut has there been any such evidence? Anything? Maybe the Visnovsky and Staios moves point toward something approaching coherence, but it's hard to have any faith at this point.
Is there any chance we see Hemsky dealt in a deal that doesn't involve lottery tickets?
ReplyDeleteBecause I could (potentially) handle that.
I'm just so sick of this team chasing bean stalks instead of making sound decisions.
If Hemsky is dealt for another player just about to entire his prime who is signed for a few years at decent dollars and just brings a different skill set... not such a bad thing.
Thing is, I think we all (sadly) know they wouldn't deal him for Bobby Ryan or Blake Wheeler or James Neal... they'll deal him for a project/prospect like Turris or Filatov, possibly a bad contract coming back to help dollars work, and a pick.
.... sigh.
PDO:
ReplyDeleteBrassard?
Olesz?
Not suggesting those guys in 1 for one deals or anything, just wondering if those are the types of guys you mean?
ReplyDeletespeeds: Brassard seems to be one of those guys who gets injured a lot. Too bad to, he seems like a pretty talented player.
ReplyDeleteFlames lose, Avs in OT and if they get the extra point the Flames are out of the post-season. That's a surprise.
speeds: Ah, can't answer that for PDO. I would hope that the Oilers would insist on one very good young roster player and a pick.
ReplyDeleteBrassard works.... I have an eternal hate for anyone coming from the SE, so I'd avoid guys like Horton & Olsez like the plague.
ReplyDeleteBasically, I can handle dealing Hemsky for a player with a similar impact but a different skill set.
That can include D & G, but I think the first have a smaller impact and the latter are just too plentiful to bother trying to fix that, so another guy who can be a difference maker up front.
If I had to make a list off the top of my head, it'd have guys like Kesler, Backstrom, Carter, M. Koivu (with an extension only)...
Not anyone who is going to be the confused as being one of the best players in the league (though Backstrom has very interesting potential, just hard to ignore the SE and AO factors on his #'s), and certainly some where we might be adding something to Hemsky to get it done... but if we are trading Hemsky we sure as hell better be getting a guy back who has proven something at the NHL level in regards to being a difference maker.
Avs in,Flames out.
ReplyDeleteWow.
Colorado's out in the first round, three and a half games. Book it and then put a lot of money on it.
ReplyDeleteAh, hell, I'll jump in, largely in support of RQ.
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not, I ran into a guy from my small town who I grew up with as I was walking back to my office today. He's moving from one of Canada's big cities to here and we got to talking about home. Neither of us is really in touch with anyone from home anymore. During the course of the conversation, he asked me who my favourite economists were, to which I replied "I bet this is not a common question when two guys from our hometown run into each other."
I can't speak for the small towns that other people grow up in, only my own. From my seat on the fence, I observed an educational system that didn't really encourage academics. University wasn't something that people were encouraged to pursue. University's not the be all and end all, but I put a pretty high value on encouraging people to think critically and encouraging people to get university educations is a big part of that.
Heck, I was on my high school's website the other night and they've got a handbook on there singing the praises of a technical education. There's nothing wrong with that, and there's a good, honest living to be had from it, but it doesn't seem to me to correlate with exceptional people from an innovation or insight standpoint or any of that.
Growing up, I also noticed that a lot of women I knew from rural families, even the bright ones, didn't get the encouragement to pursue paths that they'd have had if they grew up in different families or the exposure to options that women have that they might have seen elsewhere. I don't think that this is a particularly good thing, and I think it's more of a rural thing than anything else.
Lots of small town people are good people and honest people, but the homogeneity of thinking and, while I hate to say it, the lack of curiosity about the broader world isn't such a good thing or a good trait and I think it's probably one that you can fairly hang on a lot of rural people.
I don't think that I have a bias against small town people, having been raised in one, but JW is from close to where I'm from and at least a couple of times I've read something he's written and been surprised that it's by someone who still lives there just because, in my experience living there, that kind of critical thinking isn't common. Some people are lucky enough to have it innately - I think JW is probably one of them and you probably are too LT - but for a lot of us, getting some higher education and getting exposed to thinking critically about things is a pretty key step.
Living in Toronto, I've dated some women who are from the city and, when we get to talking about high school, I'm always sort of vaguely jealous of the opportunities that they had presented to them that aren't available in rural Canada.
With that said, I'll throw in some defence of rural Canada. The people there aren't stupid, despite my general belief that many of them have a limited worldview and are unreceptive to new ideas.
There certainly are some exceptional people who live in rural Canada now and who do exceptional things, as well as some fantastic business opportunities and smart business people. There are a ton of good people who I'm happy to run into when I'm home visiting my parents.
On the whole though, I'm pretty sure that Pete is right with this:
ReplyDeleteit's been my experience that small towns suffer a constant brain drain as the best and brightest, the smartest and most motivated, go off to the city for university or what have you, and most don't return.
If I were to go through the list of the kids I graduated high school with who went on to university (a reasonable proxy for the best and the brightest, or at least (as in my case) the ones whose parents understood the value of an education in terms of increasing your options) who got university degrees and then count the ones who returned to my small town, it'd be a pretty short list. It doesn't make sense to me that rural Canada would be some sort of hotbed of exceptional people when it bleeds so many of them to big cities at 18. It's kind of like bleeding guys like Pronger and Smyth with little return and then expecting to have a better team at the end of the day.
I think PDO makes a good point. The Oilers need to get a true impact player in return for Hemsky and that means either a top three pick or a prospect that can see the finish line in the hazy distance.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to substantiate off the top of my head, but most good orgs keep players like Hemsky, but when they do trade them they usually get a relatively sure thing in return. Like Iginla for Nieuwendyk or Yashin for Chara and a high pick that would become Spezza.
If you deal Hemsky early for a package of low lights like Pronger or Smyth yielded, then you're doomed to mediocrity.
Here's an interesting quote from Ron Brenneman former CEO of Petro Canada and now executive vice chairman of Suncor:
ReplyDelete“When you’re working with 500 engineers, if there’s confusion or indecisiveness then nothing is going to move forward. You’ve got to be able to step up and be the one who sets the purpose: this is what we’re going to do today.”
He credits this ability to his upbringing as an Alberta farm boy, the grandson of Italian immigrants lured to the Edson area by free land.
“When you’re in farming, you have to be a pretty clear thinker. Everything’s in the moment, and you have to make quick decisions. You also have to be pretty straight-shooting about communicating to anyone else you’re dealing with.”
Stupid yokel.
The rural exceptionalism conversation isn't awkward and personal enough yet, we need a bit of nationalism. Let me tell you what -- the rural folks in Anytown, USA where I grew up? Totally kick the ass of any rural folk in Canada. Totally.
ReplyDeleteWe're better at football too.
Woo.
There is no joy at the Sutterite colony tonight.
ReplyDeleteOh sure mc79hockey, spoken like a guy from rural Northern BC. Super, Natural maybe but not touched by God to rule the earth with equal parts cow manure and tar sand like your immediate neighbours to the East.
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, I just wanted to poke fun at the Sutters.
If I were to go through the list of the kids I graduated high school with who went on to university (a reasonable proxy for the best and the brightest, or at least (as in my case) the ones whose parents understood the value of an education in terms of increasing your options) who got university degrees and then count the ones who returned to my small town, it'd be a pretty short list. It doesn't make sense to me that rural Canada would be some sort of hotbed of exceptional people when it bleeds so many of them to big cities at 18.
ReplyDeleteThis was a significant part of my point that got lost. I didn't make myself very clear in re-reading it.
Many of the best of brightest that I happen to meet or read about (like Ron Brenneman in the post above) credit their rural upbringing for giving them the tools to succeed.
Well the Oilers traded the best dman in the NHL in the peak of his career with a beauty contract for a whole bunch of unproven players just a few years ago. Why would he get better players out of Hemsky?
ReplyDeleteYou do not win trading your best player for a lesser player and a pick. You just don't. Name me one example where this has happened. Hemsky is only 27, he should still be an excellent player for another 5-7 years, the same length of time a 21 year old we may trade him for before that player becomes a UFA. And of course, the theoretical 21 year old would likely not be as good as Hemsky is now, so why take the chance?? As I recall, Chris Joseph never quite became Paul Coffey, Bernie Nichols never became Mark Messier, and Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas and 3 first round draft picks that did not make the NHL were sure as hell not as good as Gretzky. Given the above facts, I was sure Lowe would be smarter than to try to trade Pronger for a bunch of maybes. A bunch of maybe is never as good as one sure thing, and the best they could get for Hemsky are some Maybe's. Why not stick with what we have??
Why not just focus on trying to keep him? Statistically that is their best chance of becoming a good team as compared to trying to trade him and hoping you win that trade. When Smyth was traded he was already 31, Hemsky is 4 years younger now and will be 2 years younger when this contract expires.
The Sedins are just entering their prime and they will be 30 in September.
As for the shoulder injury, it is the same one Phil Kessel, Hossa, Souray and Vish had, did not seem to affect any of them.
If we are hoping the Oilers will be good in 2-3 years, Hemsky and Penner will be 29-30. That is not old, that is their prime. Let them play until they are 32-33 then trade them. That is what good teams do.
On that note, it will be interesting to see if the Flames try to trade their soon to be 33 year old best player. Spector on Gregor's show today said if he were Boston he would trade their number 2 for Iginla. I sure as hell would not do that if I were Boston. Iginla maybe has 2 or 3 years in him, and each of those years he will probably be not as good as the year before. Hall or Seguin should be good for 15 years. That would be a really stupid trade for Boston or whoever else gets that pick.
If Wikipedia has any value...
ReplyDeleteRon was born in 1947 and graduated from UofT in 1968. That quote sounds like home spun bullshit his CEO consultants told him to say.
One of the most disconcerting thing for me as an Oilers fan is the thought that this mgmt just does not know what a good team should look like.
ReplyDeleteWho brought in Vish when they already had a soft defence and no good defensive dman?
Who did not sign a good third line penalty killing center two years in a row? (Or retain Reasoner..)
Who traded Cole, one of the only players with size, for a bad contract and another small forward in O'Sullivan. Wouldn't it have made more sense to just let Cole walk than bring in another smurf for two more years?
This mgmt brought in all these small players and didn't seem to think about how the team should be put together. The fact they were stupid enough to do that in the first place, makes me wonder why they would be smart enough to see what obviously needs to be fixed..
During the course of the conversation, he asked me who my favourite economists were, to which I replied "I bet this is not a common question when two guys from our hometown run into each other."
ReplyDeleteYou aren't going to hear that from the majority of city bred people either.
Perhaps if you work downtown you'll see a high concentration of white collar workers who would be interested in that type of chatter, but that makes up a pretty small fraction of a city.
For every lawyer, there are 50 people driving buses, waiting tables, and ringing cash registers at the Gap.
oilersfan:
ReplyDeleteThere is a slam dunk example of this with OTT almost 10 years ago, when they traded Yashin to NYI for #2 OV (Spezza), Chara, and Muckalt.
RQ,
ReplyDeleteI think I miss-credited that quote.
In looking back at what I was reading I think it was Neil Carmata who is now executive VP Natural Gas for Suncor.
Sorry about that.
well, Speeds, unfortunately, Milbury is not there to rape and pillage anymore.
ReplyDeleteYes I would take a lottery pick and Tyler Myers for Hemsky. Unfortunately that guy in Buffalo does not have a lottery pick and is not an idiot.
The reality is I doubt the Oilers could trade Hemsky for someone as good. If someone like Heatley last year were available then sure, but that happens once every 5 years, and the Islanders example every 10 years. Basically I am saying it would be highly unlikely the Oilers win any trade involving Hemsky.
Oh sure mc79hockey, spoken like a guy from rural Northern BC. Super, Natural maybe but not touched by God to rule the earth with equal parts cow manure and tar sand like your immediate neighbours to the East.
ReplyDeleteHa! I figured one of you Alberta supremacist types would point that out. Racist.
You aren't going to hear that from the majority of city bred people either.
ReplyDeleteIn all honesty, that level of conversation about finance is beyond me. I recognized one of the names he said and no more.
I hope we don't really deal either Hemsky or Penner, but I'm pretty sure the knee has jerked from being smashed into the floor boards to striking them on the chin.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way they are smart enough, from a manager perspective, to see the upswing in two years.
There is no way they are dumb enough (props to Burke), from a snake oil perspective, to not see the perfect means of unquestioned mediocrity for a sustained period.
I hope they don't go that route as it will likely lead us to discussing whether they should cut and run on gilbert/gagner/whitney etc..., in a couple years.
Somehow, I doubt this is or will be the plan though. They'll trade Hemsky + for Lecavalier and then tell us that they're piss is apple juice. Just watch.
ReplyDeleteCan you imagine Hemsky in the SE?
Three digits worth of points might be in reach.
Hemsky + SE + Stamkos = 100 point season, very easily.
ReplyDeleteAs a percentage of occupation, I'd wager that Alberta farmers have more millionaires than any other group (except for investment bankers)
ReplyDeleteThat's because farmers are subdidized (ie on welfare) to the tune of several billion dollars a year from the provincial government alone.
/subsidized
ReplyDeleteI put a pretty high value on encouraging people to think critically and encouraging people to get university educations is a big part of that.
ReplyDelete"Learning to think critically" isn't necessarily encouraged at university. In fact, it's often discouraged. Jeebus, where do you think we get all the Keynesians?
I'm sure he will find a new home for O'Sullivan. I player like that doesn't get bought out.
ReplyDeleteKyle Wellwood?
ReplyDeleteTo revisit a point that RiversQ made and seems to have gotten lost here, women in rural areas as a trend tend to not be encouraged to do much.
ReplyDeleteI have a very good friend who's doing quite well in a good job right now, and she says if she'd stayed back home she'd have ended up getting married and popping kids out. She then pointed out how all the brightest girl friends she had are all in low paying basic jobs or stay at home moms, not that there's anything wrong with that, but that was all she had to look forward to and was being encouraged to do.
As someone from a very small rural area myself, I can attest to how girls were treated. And I can also attest to how many of the brightest minds seemed to bleed away. Not many of the top 20 from my high school are still back 'home'.
People are people. Rural people as a trend seem to be more pragmatic and hard working. They know how to put the effort into doing the dirty work to get things done. Some also tend to have a group think attitude and smaller view of things. These of course are all generalizations, and I don't think anything makes them particularly 'better' or 'worse' than anyone else.
What kind of organization would send away its best player in the prime of his career for some unknown or lesser player and a draft pick? This is a player who has been developed by the team, who has undergone injuries and surgeries trying to do his best without a lot of protection from his teammates and who signed a "reasonable" contract to stay with the Oil. This is no way to build a strong team or dressing room. It is totally classless and there is no need for it. Given the draft picks and recent signings, this team should be concentrating on developing the players that it has and getting rid of the deadwood, not the best players.
ReplyDeleteI guess the question is this:
ReplyDeleteWill you be able to keep Hemsky when his deal expires in 2 years?
If not, he's got tremendous trade value right now (he's a high-skill player who is signed to an awesome deal with years left on it).
He's not going to fetch 3 NHL players in a trade (like the potential Edmonton-Ottawa would have netted the Sens), but he'll get you someone who is younger, less established but has potential.
Whether that player is ever as good as Hemsky isn't really the point. It's far better than losing him as a UFA (if you feel you can't sign him) or trading him to a contender at the deadline his final year for a prospect and mid to late 1st.
If the Oilers have talked to Hemsky and don't think they can sign him to an extension after next season, I'd fully take a very high pick in this years draft for him. I don't think the EDM-BOS idea works (for cap reasons), but I think there is a trade to be made.
The other thing you can do is hold onto him until next summer and see what you can get for him. But if I can get a top 5 pick for him at the draft, I do it (and not pick one of the defencemen).
I think we're glossing over the biggest revelation: there is another Dennis posting here!!;)
ReplyDeleteAnyway I've got a lot of time for rural people and I think me and the GF will eventually move back home but that's only because I'm becoming more and more misanthropic and it will be easier to avoid people back home:)