Saturday, April 10, 2010

Oilers at Kings, G 81, 09-10

Jordan Eberle's time with Springfield this season (9gp, 4-7-11 -1) was positive and it looks like the Oilers are serious about employing a slower track development plan. It might mean Eberle gets the Tyler Ennis treatment (an entire year in the AHL, where he was named rookie of the year in that league).

The Oilers are lacking at the major league and minor league level at this time, and having the kind of depth in the minor leagues boasted by a team like the Buffalo Sabres would be a welcome change. It is going to take awhile, but an Oklahoma City team with the likes of Eberle, Omark, Vande Velde, Petry, Chorney and Dubnyk mixed in with veterans like Linglet, Minard and Arsene just might have a chance to win more than they lose. And they might be able to help out the big league club with a better quality callup, too. The AHL site lists rookie scoring and the leading Falcon is Ryan MacMurchy (tied for 90th). Eberle is tied for 99th after 9 games.

The Oilers are likely to go several years without losing as many man games to injury as they did this season, but it is also true that the minor league team under Kevin Prendergast has been subpar for several years running. Perhaps Eberle, Oklahoma City and the new hires represent a turning of the page and an adoption of a more traditional model.

113 comments:

  1. Agreed! Building through the minors is smart. However, if Eberle is this dominant on a crummy minor league team, do you really believe he needs that much work? I believe in developing talent slowly, but the talent should determine advancement. No one "time-formula" is a good fit for every player.

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  2. Colour me surprised. For all the org's talk about taking it slow with Eberle, I didn't think they'd actually have the willpower.

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  4. I would be nice to see Pendergrast canned for the sad state of the development program.

    Hell, it would be nice to see anyone in management fired. Vish is safe in his pancake tower, so the other Kevin is the obvious and deserving target.

    With Tambellini making a point of wanting actual competition for jobs, signing some draft picks and college FA's, there is some glimmers of hope.

    Coachpb has been following Hartikienen at the C&B, and he has lead his team into the second round of the playoffs. I think he needs to be signed this summer or else he goes back in the draft. Hopefully that is a priority.

    Given his game is based on strength and going to the net, hopefully he is close to being AHL ready, and I'd love to see him come over this fall.

    Another note Coachpb made that is somewhat disturbing is that it doesn't seem like Suitcase the development coach has been talking to many players in the org this past year. When Coachpb started asking some uncomfortable questions, his access to these players was removed.

    This thing aint fixed yet.

    A couple road games to finish the year to see the Oilers get outcoached again.

    Over/under and the amount of time Kopitar spends on the ice vs. 43 and 41?

    Go Oilers!!
    *clap,clap*

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  5. It's also a cap nightmare if Eberle matures into his ELC right away and "rips up" the NHL the way Gagner did a few years ago. I think the Oilers employ this approach to maximize on when they have to re-sign everyone and if they wait a bit on Eberle they have time to decide who to trade and who to keep out of the Penner, Hemsky, Horcoffs, etc.

    Which means the Oilers are probably not dealing Penner or Hemsky at the draft, per rumour?

    What do you think?

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  6. Eberle played C in junior and is listed as a C on the Falcons roster. His skill set strikes me as being a winger in the NHL. I don't think the Oilers want to carry yet another undersized, soft minute center.

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  7. It's also a cap nightmare if Eberle matures into his ELC right away and "rips up" the NHL the way Gagner did a few years ago.

    Well, the clock is running on his ELC one way or the other next season. Although if he spends a significant amount of time (like 1.5+ seasons) in the AHL it's obviously going to hurt his bargaining position come time to re-sign.

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  8. Eberle should've spent this entire season in the AHL like Ennis, except that he's 7 months younger.

    I don't believe in rushing kids into the league at all, but at the same time you shouldn't hold them back & stunt their growth if they deserve a call-up.

    Another good comparison is Claude Giroux. Played 2 seasons after he was drafted in the CHL (like Eberle), then the next year he basically split 50/50 between the AHL (PPG player) and NHL (27 pts in 42 games).

    This year Giroux is 16-31-47 playing similar minutes to Gagner.

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  9. If he deserves a call-up, just don't hold him bac for the sake or keeping a straight mentality.

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  10. A couple other good examples of patience paying off would be Bobby Ryan, Chris Stewart & James Neal.

    There's been more and more coverage about the young superstars taking over the league. Obviously the elite talents like Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Backstrom, Stamkos, Kane should play immediately.

    But if you look, there's still just as many young players suffering from the Patrik Stefan Effect.

    James Sheppard, Kyle Turris, Mikkel Boedker, Viktor Tikhonov, Jiri Tlusty are some prime examples from recent drafts.

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  11. I'd like to see Eberle, Petry, Van de Velde, Omark etc. start at the AHL level next year. The team has little to lose bringing them along slowly, but a lot to lose by rushing them to the NHL.

    The fact is, the teams that seem most adept at developing prospects (Buffalo, Detroit, Nashville) almost always bring players along slowly. Nashville and Buffalo seem to lose players to free agency every year, but they're almost always competing for a playoff spot. If you look at Nashville's roster, virtually every good young player has spent at least half a season in the minors, including Suter, Weber, Hamhuis, Erat and Hornqvist.

    The Oilers recent history with prospects is, to be generous, awful. That they didn't rush Eberle to the NHL, hopefully, is a sign of a new direction but the proof will be in next year's opening day roster in October. If Petry, Eberle, Omark, MPS and Hall/Seguin are all there, we're in trouble.

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  12. But if you look, there's still just as many young players suffering from the Patrik Stefan Effect.

    He should be embarrassed for what he just did; that does not belong in the National Hockey League.

    (Source:Ray Ferraro)

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  13. They would have won more than they lost if the Oilers didn't rape and pillage the poor Falcons this year, IMO.

    But I do agree; A good mix of veterans is crucially important, but some real NHL prospects could only help the OKC team lay foundation and win hockey games.

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  14. Matt: He played C sometimes in Junior, but he spent more time at RW, as far as I've heard.

    Whether or not he's listed as a C in the AHL, he's ALWAYS been on Chad Wiseman's RW down there. Linglet was his LW for a few games, but now it's Minard.

    He IS a RW. Said so himself not too long ago.

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  15. Boston just scored 3 goals in 1:04...

    ... while killing a minor minute penalty.

    Has that ever happened before? The 80s Oilers are pretty much the only team I can imagine doing that, with the ironic part being that Boston has the worst offense in the NHL.

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  16. PDO

    I had to look to believe it. Wow. Just wow.

    As far as the post goes. It would not be a bad thing to see the AHL team dominate with some good young players learning the major league game there. Even if the NHL team continues its reign of suck (well, not really a good thing, but a high draft is nice compensation). A year longer in the wilderness can only help change the mentality of the club and perhaps get a team that has greater mental resiliency than the previous 4 incarnations have had.

    But I still want to see a new coach next year.

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  17. It seems over the last 4 years we keep talking about, "this team can't go through more injuries next year". Well it does, and I wouldn't call it inconceivable if it did. The better way to plan for it would be to have more depth in the org. Omark and Vandevelde are good starts. Hopefully Plante, Petry and Motin can give the D some depth.

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  18. DangerMan: I think the Oilers really did it this year. Betting the under (500+ man games in 09-10) for next year would be a very smart bet.

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  19. What would be interesting to know is:

    a) what are historical highs and lows for man-games lost to injury

    b) how quality of team affects injuries (ie does a bad team suffer more and good teams fewer) or is it all completely random and unpredictable.

    I suspect there could be evidence located to show bad teams (young players, older vets) might get hurt more, but it is more a suspicion than anything I could prove.

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  20. I know the high is LA Kings.. 02-03 or 03-04 iirc, about 650. Lost Allison, Palffy and Deadmarsh all in the first week for the season.

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  21. how quality of team affects injuries (ie does a bad team suffer more and good teams fewer) or is it all completely random and unpredictable.

    I can't think of a way of calculating this without running into a correlation/causation problem.

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  22. Dubnyk and JDD are both 6'4", but Dubnyk actually looks 6'4" in the net.

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  23. Comrie!

    I'd like to see him back next season.

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  24. @PDO:

    I actually have confidence in JDD and DD going forward and I don't think they really have anything to learn from Old St Nick.

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  25. That Gilbert can pass the puck.

    If a GM were as smart as Damien Cox he'd offer the Oilers a mid 1st round pick in exchange for Gilbert and the Oilers' first.

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  26. Dubnyk has certainly looked more consistent this season. If we had to choose one of the two I would keep him over JDD.

    I sure hope this is a sign of things to come from Whitney. He has looked very good to end the season.

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  27. Whitney now +6 since the trade. Gilbert now 2-11-13, +9 in his last 10 games plus a period.

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  28. Gilbert is no longer the king of the second assist. That's three wonderful first assists in the last two games. Every one a terrific pass to the goal scorer.

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  29. Hate to repeat what may be a common sentiment, but it's pretty nice to see Whitney flourishing in his role and making Gilbert a better player for it. I was pretty bummed to lose Vis, but this seems to be at least an acceptable level of compensation for his absence.

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  30. Back to back eagles for Mickelson on 13 and 14.
    1 back of Westwood.

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  31. If Whitney can keep this up, I'll take back a lot of what I said about the trade... though I still don't understand why Lubo wasn't traded for real futures.

    Gilbert needs 2 more points this season to have as many points in his last 11 games as he had in his first 71...

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  32. Had Comrie put in a full season he'd have been 20+ goals. I'd like to sign him to another one year deal if it works for the Oilers.

    Watching these Kings play hockey makes me think they kind of suck. They should be better then they are. With that goaltending they're likely first round fodder.

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  33. Dubnyk is putting on a show and destroying my Over 5.5 bet....

    JDD was supposed to get the start, he won last game!

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  34. @Bruce:

    I'm not entirely convinced that second assists themselves should be as shunned as they are.

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  35. Making the playoffs is a Huge step for the Kings. Things are developing pretty nicely out there, but I don't see them as contenders quite yet.

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  36. So, now I'm working myself into a nice lather over Dubnyk. Because you know he's third in the pecking order and the most likely to be exposed to waivers.

    I'm now full on in favor of running with three goalies in 10-11.

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  37. I can't think of a way of calculating this without running into a correlation/causation problem.

    All I would be looking for is a correlation, not any kind of predictive stat. Along the line of 300 games lost equates to X pts (historically). Then using that as a benchmark for whether a team overachieves (or underachieves) based on its injuries. I have no idea what its value would be beyond trivia.


    Thanks for that info PDO.

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  38. Antony: Agreed. Defencemen who make a lot of breakout passes tend to rack them up a little bit, and that's not at all a bad thing. If they had third assists, Gilbert would get a lot of those too.

    I was just being a little facetious about that reputation he had.

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  39. Are the shots actually 35-12 for LA? Is the play that lopsided? Just wondering from work where all the online feeds are blocked.

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  40. end of the yankees game might be worth checking out for any baseball fans.

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  41. Shots are 39-11, Oilers are winning 2-0....

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  42. Dubie must have applied some caulking to equipment. All those holes that pucks seem to find aren't there today. In my eyes, Dubie has surpassed JDD, just because I think his style of goaltending is more suited to the Oilers going forward. Just need to keep working with him mentally and structurally.

    I'm sure the battle will continue into training camp next year. But if I'm the Oilers, I'm looking for a Curtis Sanford type goaltender, for insurance purposes.

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  43. The thing to like about this game for Dubnyk is that he's only made one great save... it's consistently making the saves you have to, and he made one he didn't have to on Simmonds.

    If JDD was in net there would be 3 or 4 holy shit saves, but he'd have let in a softie or two as well.

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  44. I'm now full on in favor of running with three goalies in 10-11.

    LT: I'm in agreement with that. These kids have been thrown to the lions this winter, and I am least somewhat encouraged with what they have shown. Dubnyk in particular has really salvaged his rookie season in the last month.

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  45. L.T.,

    I wouldn't bank on JDD being #2 in the Oilers eyes.

    When OTC was on Stauffer's show this week, he was asked about both young goalies.

    He spent 15% of the time saying JDD was a nice young man who needed to work on a few things, but spent 85% of the time saying really good things about DD.

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  46. In particular OTC talked of how calm he was for a young goalie and the calming effect he had on the team.

    He also mentioned how JDD needed to learn how to control his emotions.

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  47. I just came home from my baseball practice.

    AND WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON?

    Getting outshot 39-13 and we're winning 2-0?!?!

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  48. Damn it. I always miss these afternoon games. Looks like it's been a pretty one-sided affair.

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  49. Aaron Johnson having a very tough time out there today.

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  50. Chorney turns a routine play into a partial break due to shitty positioning, shitty skating and a lack of common sense.

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  51. Yeah Chorney was awful on that play. You'd have to think even a guy as inexperienced as Petry would be much better option.

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  52. As soon as I start watching the Kings start scoring. Bad luck I guess.

    Good to see Dubnyk putting together a nice string of games. A lot of people have been calling for him to get more icetime and it looks like it's working out so far. Though, this will make the goaltending decision that much more difficult next year.

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  53. Nice little play by Pouliot there, driving to the net and getting a penalty call on LAK.

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  54. Aaron Johnson is a gambler and today he's losing his shirt. I wished he picked his spots a little better but I love his aggressiveness.

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  55. Can someone explain me how Moreau gets 17 minutes, Penner 12 and Pouliot 8?

    Don't go too far to explain the fact that the Kings have 50 shots by the end.

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  56. This is probably the only time I've seen a 5 on 3 PP get dumped out of the zone three times. Fucking pathetic.

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  57. The worst ten minute period of hockey I've seen all year. And that's saying a lot.

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  58. Strudwick and Chorney can't play defense at this level.

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  59. The 5 on 3 is to blame for that goal. What a momentum killer.

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  60. There's this year's Oilers.

    Can't gain the zone on a 5 on 3 then give it away in their own zone, 41 is out of position, and its in the net.

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  61. Why is Chorney in the NHL? Springfield must be pretty fricken hurtin' if he's up with the big club.

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  62. 43 and 41 both should be in the AHL next year. Whether they make the team next year will indicate if management is anticipating drafting high again.

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  63. Criminal that 43 and 41 are out there at the end of the game.

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  64. I can't figure out why they haven't given Plante some more icetime in the Bigs. At least he wasn't a freak show.

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  65. This basically the same as the last game they played in L.A. However, there is no Vish to ice it in the shootout.

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  66. Welp, if anything, the Oilers are getting a lot of practise in defending.

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  67. Plante had a concussion. They may want to be cautious with him.

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  68. Welp, if anything, the Oilers are getting a lot of practise in defending.

    They certainly need it...

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  69. I will say their defending is a lot better than it was at the beginning of the year. I'm guessing it has a lot to do with the personnel.

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  70. 16, 10 and 19?

    hmm.. is that the best we have in the shoot out?

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  71. Good for Doobie.

    Mad Russian looks slick in the shootout, while Potulny looked like he was doing the funky chicken.

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  72. If I was the Kings, I'd be a little concerned about J.Quick, he looked pretty gross today. He couldn't make a save when their team really needed it.

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  73. I'm liking Dubie's calmness over JDD's spaztacular. Good showing by Dubie today.

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  74. Chorwick and Strudney with a nice matching set of his and hers - a nice pair of minus-twos on the event summary, and a whopping brace of minus-Twenties on the EV Corsi report. Despite spending all of their time in their own zone without the puck, between them they mustered 1 hit and 1 blocked shot. Oh, and 2 giveaways.

    By Corsi, Johnson was even worse at -23, Arsene -18, while the Oilers as a team were -46. Which doesn't include special teams, which amounted to another -22. The Oilers attempted 33 shots today, the Kings, 101.

    While the GA were inevitable, I am livid about that 5-on-3. Being outmatched is one thing, but getting outnumbered around the puck three times in a row when you got two more guys than the other guys is inexcusable. A UHL team would be able to gain the zone, ferfuxsake. That was just horrible. Sorry, lack of compete just doesn't wash with me, even in Game 81 of a lost season.

    Thankfully a few guys brought it, notably Devan Dubnyk. A great way for the kid to end his season.

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  75. Started watching half way through the second period - think I saw the puck in the LA zone four times (Gilbert's goal and then the shootout).

    Great game by DD - his positioning and anticipation were really strong. Both goalies are playing really well right now - but I think Dubnyk's pulled ahead of JDD. Especially on a young team, you gotta take calmness over "spaztacular".

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  76. It wouldn't shock me to see the Oilers carry 3 goalies next year for 2 pratical reasons.

    1) You can't count on Khabibulin for a full season at this point.

    2) It's not reasonable to think you can get ADD or DD thru waivers.

    But I don't think that's good for either ADD or DD so I expect a trade either at the draft or during fall camp.

    Very nice game by DD, only 1 goal that I didn't like (the one over his shoulder). Was super steady otherwise and they team really did not play that well in front of him.

    A nice positive heading into the long summer.

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  77. As a sidenote, Tom Gilbert has 19 points in 17 games since the trade deadline. The acquisition of Whitney at the price of Visnovsky is almost worth it on Gilbert's improvement alone.

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  78. Have to admit, Tambellini's trade deadline work is starting to look better than it did at the time - Whitney has fit in a lot better than I thought he would and appears to have some leadership potential.

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  79. Matt Cooke got knocked the f!ck out!

    By E. Kane, beauty punch.

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  80. I guess I'll state the obvious, but top 2 lines need a total overhaul and the only player who will survive the purge that is currently playing in the top 6 is Penner. But its the reason they spend so much time in their own zone is because they cannot sustain any pressure in the other team's zone.

    The team must be dog tired after today's game, they defended their own zone a lot.

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  81. Evander Kane showed Matt Cooke who's the man.

    Pretty humiliating when the man in question is 19.

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  82. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW9Sp-WndwA&feature=player_embedded

    The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he, who in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

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  83. Only in the NHL do you make the playoffs by losing.

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  84. The winner of the Rangers/Flyers gets a playoff spot.

    Loser gets to draft 10th OV.

    Somehow that doesn't seem fair.

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  85. Dubnyk is 2 years younger than JDD and is way ahead of where JDD was at the same age. So making a choice to keep DD in the NHL next year is really not all that big a decision - neither is losing JDD on waivers next year if that is what comes to pass. Unless you are able to trade JDD - and I doubt that is possible since you can get a similar or better goalie over the summer for nothing but dollars - then you can resign JDD and send him to OKC without much of a worry. I keep saying the same thing over and over - it is pointless to waste time developing backup goalies or low end starters (and that's what JDD is). These guys are a dime a dozen as UFA each and every summer. We have spent enough time evaluating JDD and we know with a pretty high degree of certainty what his upside is - and it's not high enough to continue wasting starts on him. DD may be more - so it's worth keeping him to find out - but the upside has to emerge soon or he's in the same boat as JDD.

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  86. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  87. Somehow that doesn't seem fair.

    I agree. I could get on board with something like first overall is the worst team in the league, second overall is the worst team in the other conference, and back and forth.

    1st overall: Oilers
    2nd overall: Leafs
    3rd: Columbus
    4th: Florida
    5th: Minnesota

    And so on.

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  88. First off, thanks PDO to the link of that fight. I can't think of a time when I've ever seen a hockey player get seriously injured and I've thought that a guy deserved it and didn't feel sorry for the guy. I can now say that it's happened once. That could happen every day of the week to Matt Cooke and twice on Sunday and I'd still think it was the greatest thing ever. After all the cheapshots he's dished out over the years, it's awesome to watch him go to sleep on a totally clean play. It's pretty obvious why his gloves are glued to his hands most times.

    As for the Oil - I didn't see even a second of todays game. The Masters was just WAY too good today to miss even a second to watch the horror show that is the Oilers. A couple of general comments though...

    - It's awesome that in a GDT with only about 75 comments by the end of the game, by my count 10 comments were directed at the defence pair of 41 & 43 between 4:15 and 4:30 this afternoon. That must have been some kind of ****show to warrant that kind of emotion.

    - Regarding goaltending - I've been of the opinion that the Oil get what they can for 1 or both of the young goalies and sign a 1A to split time with Khabibulin and risk losing the 2 young goalies on waivers. I think I'm starting to change my mind on that. Dubnyk is starting to convince me that he's at least capable of being the backup next year. His overall numbers are still terrible (.890 save %age after today), but if you look at his splits, it appears that the light has gone on for him. Since the Olympic break, DD has played 10 games and has a save %age of .912. If you want to break it down even further than that, in his last 8 games he's got a save %age of .922. I know it's a small sample size and all, but those numbers, if sustainable - and I can't imagine why they wouldn't be given that the team in front of him has to be better next year - give a reason for optimism. Someone buy ADD a cowboy hat to commemorate his last game in an Oilers uniform tomorrow and away we go.

    Good to see the Flames still have some pride. 3-0 Vancouver halfway through the first and Rypien beat the hell out of Mayers. The way Calgary is defending tonight, Henrik might challenge some of 99's season records.

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  89. Asia: Agree Dubnyk is the guy to keep, but worry that the braintrust thinks differently.

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  90. PDO: Beautiful link, by the way. Cooke is lucky Kane didn't let his head hit the ice, it was more than he deserved.

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  91. That's just a cycle. Eastern teams will finish to be stronger. And then it's going to be reversal.

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  92. PDO: . If you refer to the Habs. Without theyr precious OT losses, the Rangers would be out of playoffs. Tied with the Habs at best, but Habs would win the tiebreaker anyway.

    BUT i really think they should integrate the MLB formula to actually PLAY a tiebreaker.

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  93. Asia: Agree Dubnyk is the guy to keep, but worry that the braintrust thinks differently.

    I know we all don't have a lot of respect for the abilities of the "braintrust", but DD's late season performance seems too strong to ignore. Guy had a hell of a game today.

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  94. Devan Dubnyk looks like a worse version of Alex Auld.

    If we can get a pick for him at the draft, take it.

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  95. PDO: Agreed with Schitzo, nice link. I've watched that video several times and it doesn't get old. I kind of wish the refs wouldn't have stopped Kane, he looked like he would have kept wailing on him given the chance, and that piece of garbage Cooke would have deserved every shot. Still, watching him fall like a sack of bricks after the first punch that actually connected, gods damn that was nice.

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  96. Calgary is getting clowned... Daniel Sedin just went between his legs for a hatty.

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  97. ''I want you to imagine yourself on a boat, gently rocking''

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  98. But... why is he pitching in the beginning than only batting?

    (I was watching other stuff, so maybe i skipped a thing)

    (The Natural)

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  99. Eberle with a team worst -4 on the night. Rough.

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  100. I'm guessing Eberle is getting tired. Getting tired of playing games that don't mean dick and playing with players that don't mean dick.

    I'm excited to see a line of Penner-Gagner-Eberle. It's too bad we didn't get a chance to see it, as it could have potentially had a chance to hit the ground running into next season.

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  101. I've been saying for a long, long, l-o-n-g time, some day, some year, Matt Cooke is going to bite off more than he can chew. Glad to see it was in a fair fight rather than a McSorley or Bertuzzi premeditated assault, but Kane got it right ... rip the fucker's shield off and then nail him with a couple. The video reminded me of Dave Semenko on Rick Vaive many years ago. Like Cooke today, Vaive pissed off the wrong guy.

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  102. Petry and VandeVelde both with their first professional points tonight. Petry went 0-2-2 and -3 while VandeValde was 0-1-1 +1.

    Whizzing through the game sheet, Petry's playing with another 7-game rookie out of the NCAA and getting fucking raped (-10 in 7 games). VV's playing with Trukho.

    Also, Olivier Roy's getting in some game action. Got the loss in OT last night, and made 5 saves in relief after Pitton gave up 7 goals in just over 40 minutes of work.

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  103. I'm still on the "I'd trade #1 for Stamkos" train.

    50 goals...most of em on a simply overpowering shot...amazing

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  104. The Dubnyk love-train is premature. He's had a nice few games, but let's not ignore the fact that Delauriers easily outplayed him for most of the year and has had several big games, too.

    Dubnyk needs one more year of AHL action. He should get a one year two-way contract IMO. I'm certainly with Stauffer when he says Dubnkyk won't get claimed.

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  105. Mark-Ryan, if you (and Stauffer) both think DD won't get claimed, why in the fuck did everyone think JDD was going to get claimed going into last season?

    Dubnyk is ahead of where JDD was at the same age.

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