Dustin Penner's season towers over the other Edmonton Oiler forwards.
- Boxcars: 82gp, 32-31-63
- Shots: 203
- Plus Minus: +6
- Corsi (Rel): 16.8 (1st F)
- GF/GA ON: 58-48
- 5x5/60: 2.43 (1st F)
- 5x4/60: 3.97 (4th F)
- Quality of Competition: 9th F
- Quality of Teammates: 3rd F
- FO Percentage: 47.6% in 420FO's
- OZone FO %: 45.4 (toughest F)
- Cap Hit: $4.25M
- What Do These Numbers Tell Us? Penner improved across the board (except for SP) in a very difficult season. By boxcar or by magnifying glass the evidence is overwhelming for Penner. In the fall I wondered if he could deliver enough offense to stay on the 1line, and by spring I'm convinced he could be the cornerstone of a 1line for years to come. This was a wonderful season delivered by a player in his prime and with many years of similar level production straight ahead.
- How Could These Numbers be Better? He isn't perfect: Penner was inconsistent again this season and there are periods of indifference in his game.I could also point to his level of competition number (9th according to Desjardins) but I think he's probably been nicked too much by the measurement (from what I can tell, a late-season checking line of Horcoff-Moreau-Pisani blurred earlier work done by Penner's line). Honestly, I don't know that the numbers could be better. I guess Penner could have played in better luck (by playing on a better team with a stronger powerplay) but it is terribly difficult to be critical about this season.
- What about Horcoff? Penner, Horcoff and Hemsky did play together early but injuries and ineffective play meant shakeup early on. Horcoff's ability to play well away from the puck combined with awful puck luck meant he was utilized in a more defensive role and Penner was relied on to produce an offensive line nightly. I don't really know anyone who would have thought their roles should be reversed. After Hemsky went down, they were the two best F's on the roster and the coaching staff (eventually) got around to using their strengths.
- What about Quinn? I think Penner would have flourished under any coach not named MacTavish but another huge benefit for him was OTC's tendency to roll 4 lines consistently. It gave Penner a nice chance to get a few easier matchups and that may have benefitted his final number (this is another reason why I don't really believe the toughness of opposition numbers--or at least I don't think they're as big a consideration as in previous seasons).
- What about Hall? What about Hall? Hey, we can hope that Taylor Hall has a season similar to Duchene/Tavares but Dustin Penner is an actual NHL player. I'd be shocked if the Oilers hired a better LW by next fall.
- What Else? I'd like to see what Penner could do for a kid like Seguin. Put him with a responsible RW and Penner on the portside and the Oilers might be collecting hardward (Calder) next summer. Penner finds people and he can score goals by finding open spots. A kid like Seguin (or Gagner) should benefit from an entire year of Penner on the portside.
- Will they trade Penner? I don't think so. The club is so damn small they can't afford to deal him away. Hell, if they could they'd clone the guy.
By The Numbers
- 06-07 5x5 per 60m: 1.92
- 07-08 5x5 per 60m: 1.34
- 08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.71
- 09-10 5x5 per 60m: 2.43
By The Numbers
- 06-07 5x4 per 60m: 4.01
- 07-08 5x4 per 60m: 4.07
- 08-09 5x4 per 60m: 3.15
- 09-10 5x4 per 60m: 3.97
Performance in 2009-10: 82gp, 32-31-63 (.769 per game)
Projected Role on the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers: 1st Line LW.
Good player and I'm not really sure why you think we should throw out QualComp for this season. Quinn rolled four lines, opposition coaches weren't under near the same influence and even if I think Penner is the most dangerous player on the ice (and he was), I'd rather feed my aces to the #2 or #3 line.
ReplyDeleteAlso: Can we really criticize management for selling low on guys. We do the same thing as fans. Last year, Penner was a buyout candidate and this year he's an untouchable in most people's hearts. Eventually you have to make tough decisions on players doing well. Maybe this involves moving Penner this summer, maybe not (I could write long-term plans going both ways.)
Great season for a good guy. Bonus points for messing with Principe at every opportunity.
ReplyDeleteI would love to have him and Hemsky on a hand shake deal to resign after their contracts are up. If he balks at the hand shake .....
Like Matt said, a real breathe of fresh air when it comes to dealing with the media types...that alone is worth the price of admission!!
ReplyDeletePenner and Whitney/Gilbert are the only reasons to smile right now.
ReplyDeleteAnd, I'd just like to say that your irrational hatred of Penner last year was obviously completely unwarranted :)
Coach: lol. Well, at least I have my irrational hatred of Ladislav Smid to fall back on.
ReplyDeletelet's not forget our seemingly rational collective hatred of thecaptain to rally around should he not be removed before September.
ReplyDeleteThere are many things to hate, but Penner and the Yankee Dmen are clearly not among them.
@LT, Smid? Really? Why? He's young and slow but is certainly not the worst they have in the system...and he is learning, which is more than what can be said about many of the players in the system
How should the players salary be factored into a review of their performance?
ReplyDeleteIf you divide Penners salary by the number of goals he scored you end up with:
2007 23 Goals $185,000 per goal
2008 17 Goals $250,000 per goal
2009 32 Goals $132,000 per goal
A lower salaried player, Comrie for instance, ended up with:
2009 13 goals $96,000 per goal (in only 43 games too)
Just wondering on how their salary should fit into the equation...
Additional bonus points for messing with the clueless d-nozzle that is Dan Tencer. Granted, I don't listen to the windbag very often, but Tencer's bashing Penner at seemingly every opportunity (both times I turned on CHED post-game recently, Tencer's personal contempt for Penner was in full view). Perhaps MacT's blind spot was contagious or something.
ReplyDeleteFirst occasion was the final game vs. Detroit, to see if the Oil somehow managed to complete a season sweep of the Wings. Turns out Penner played less than 5 minutes (puck in the eye). There's Tencer crucifying Penner for the mid-season swoon (Rob Brown joined in). True, Penner didn't keep up the torrid pace all year (a number of factors involved) and that's something to work on next year. But to bash the guy after a game in which Penner sustained an undetermined eye injury (at that time), it was beyond classless. CHED was quickly replaced on the dial.
Then last night, thought I'd check to see if there was any news on Rod Phillips. Once again, I managed to turn on CHED with Tencer in full Penner rant. Tencer quickly confirmed that was I right in avoiding Oilers' post-game, and CHED was silenced once again in short order. I'm starting to think Tencer is Latin for small-minded, petulant child.
Penner had indisputably the best season of any player on the team. As coach_pb9617 said, Penner's one of few bright spots at the moment. Looking forward to seeing 27 next season, hopefully with a full season of Hemsky, and/or Seguin. Can't remember the last Oiler in the Calder race (was it Fuhr?).
Can't remember the last Oiler in the Calder race (was it Fuhr?).
ReplyDeleteArnott?
Great analysis, LT - you should bump it to the top of the page once this Souray stuff blows over.
Rod:
ReplyDeleteI've heard Tencer let loose on Penner over at 1260 too. Used words like "embarassment" and "let down" to describe Penner's season...
How infuriating that the people getting paychecks for covering the Oilers generally have their heads so far up their asses, they put the "anal" in analysis.
A lower salaried player, Comrie for instance, ended up with:
ReplyDelete2009 13 goals $96,000 per goal (in only 43 games too)
Just wondering on how their salary should fit into the equation...
Well, besides the fact that players are paid to do more than score goals (in Penner's case more so than in Comrie's, I think), I suspect that there's a diseconomy of scale for goal scoring, in that players who score lots of goals generally cost more per goal than players who score few (for example, Sidney Crosby was paid $176K per goal, and I think was full value for them). You could achieve a better goals/$ ratio if you loaded up your team with lower paid guys (a guy making $750K who scores 12 goals, for example, is even better value than Comrie), but I doubt you'd win many games.
All of that said, I'd certainly take Stamkos ($73K per goal), if he was on offer.
Let me try to put it more succinctly: a 50 goal scorer costs more than five times what a 10 goal scorer should.
ReplyDeleteLet me try to put it more succinctly: a 50 goal scorer costs more than five times what a 10 goal scorer should.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely - because there's one price for a replacement-level player, and another price for every goal above replacement level.
You could probably dress a lineup of forwards who score 10 goals for under $12 million dollars. The problem is that 120 goals from your forwards is anemic. If you want more goals, you need to pay the players who can deliver more goals. There aren't as many of them, so the price goes up.
Here are a selection of this summer's UFAs. For the most part, they have been edited as not to include players who will probably re-sign with their current teams (Marleau, Lidstrom, Plekanec) and not include players whom we have no need for (small, slow forwards like Kyle Wellwood, for example). It also doesn't include any non-goalies over the age of 35. They're somewhat ranked in order of effectiveness also (the first 5 D for instance are the best ones available.)
ReplyDeleteC: Lombardi, Jokinen, Cullen, Belanger, Moore, Slater, Halpern, Burish
LW: Frolov, Tanguay, Higgins, Pyatt
RW: Stempniak, Armstrong
D: Kubina, Martin, Volchenkov, Michalek, Hamhuis; Clark, Mitchell, Morris, Lydman, Tallinder, Jones, Morrisonn, Eaton, Leopold, Seidenberg, Colaiacovo, Foster, Mottau
G: Turco, Nabokov, Mason, Ellis, Niitymaki, Leighton, Emery, Raycroft, Theodore, Toskala, Biron, Budaj, Auld
Based on value and team need, I think we should target Jim Slater (bottom-6 with decent size, great speed, wins faceoffs), Colby Armstrong (size, grit and some skill on the 3rd line RW), Randy Jones (2-way d-man who can be a #5), Shaone Morrisonn (big, physical d-man, another #5 type), and Ellis or Niitymaki if we need a 1A goalie. (Both are 2nd tier guys that should be pretty good value)
Very good season. Obviously a very smart person too, but I sense that's also the source of some of his indifferent play. I suspect when it was apparent the season was going nowhere Penner felt his motivation dip a little.
ReplyDeleteCoincidentally, his play near the end of the year picked up with talk of the WCs and the Penner/MacTavish rivalry became a topic again.
I really would like to see how he responds next season where there will be pressure from above to make the playoffs and, depending on the offseason, there might be reasonable expectations for the team to actually be in the race.
UFA? no UFA willsign here this year. Souray made sure of that if Pronger hadn't done enough damage already. This team needs to hire a new President of hockey operation and clean house before the draft and right the wrongs, until then, nobody will come here!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that I would put it quite so categorically as dawgtoy, but I would be surprised if there is much UFA movement this summer by the Oil. Too much money for a rebuild team.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone else find it ironic that as soon as Dustin Penner starts looking like a better signing by the Managment Group here, something else blows up in their collective faces?
ReplyDeleteAlso, how do I invest in this new Dustin Penner Cloning business?
It is nice that he did it without playing with 83 all the time because we're really gonna need him to be able to produce with 89 and give us that secondary scoring/top six matchup line.
ReplyDeleteHe came back and finished strong and overall a good season and I won't spend a lot of time debating that. The only but of soot I'd throw on the late surge is that holy fuck there was some bad hockey being played in the last couple of weeks. Teams knew they were dead and they played like it.
So related to Peter's post of free agents, something struck me about the C list - Jokinen. The Calgary experiment ended badly, but instead of watching it disappear on July 1 when he became a free agent, Sutter signed up for more pain - 2 more years of $3M for Kotalik to rid him from the building.
ReplyDeleteTalk about at double loss on this trade ... draft picks floating to Phoenix and $6M for a forward who doesn't want to be there. Ouch.
re: Penner - if you can be +6 on this team that is a -70 in the goal differential is nothing short of miraculous.