Although most Oiler fans seem to be leaning toward Tyler Seguin as the #1 choice in this summer's entry draft, Taylor Hall is most certainly in the conversation. A
recent tsn article had some nice quotes from the kid, including this gem:
- "Whether I go one or two, it doesn't matter to me," he explained. "But hopefully through these playoffs I'll be able to show Edmonton that I'm their guy and I can go number one."
I know that these kids are trained to say the right thing, but it is still nice to hear an elite talent mention the Oilers in a positive fashion.
I think both of these guys might "prefer" to be drafted by Edmonton as it increases their chances of playing in the show immediately substantially. It also puts them that much closer to free agency. They are both such blue chippers that have confidence in their abilities that they just want to get started sooner rather than later.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Oiler fans are leaning towards Seguin at all. If you go to HFboards you'd see that its 50/50 at best if not more favorable to Hall.
ReplyDeleteUnless the Bruins pay up. Hall is going to be an Oiler. Book it!
ReplyDeleteLOL Oiler fans want Hall not Seguin
ReplyDeleteI am torn between Taylor and Tyler because my two elite pick principals are in conflict. All other things being equal take the player with the better history (Hall) and take the center over the winger (Seguin).
ReplyDeleteIs there some measure of how late bloomers (like Seguin) have fared historically vis a vis the more established option?
Jeff, I don't think HF is really the best source of info for something like this.
ReplyDeleteStauffer has a pretty good track record at what the Oilers like at the draft and he's saying Seguin.
I'm going to be a bit disappointed if the Oilers want Seguin and they're not bothering to leak Hall. I'm happy to be corrected, but given Boston's depth down the middle and the fact that they want to win now, it certainly seems like Hall is the pick for them. Tambellini should be leaking Hall out of every orifice to see if he can get a few conditional picks out of Boston to not draft Hall (or trade picks.)
ReplyDeleteHighlander,
ReplyDeleteSeguin isn't as much a late bloomer as Hall is a beneficiary of a small discrepancy in age. Hall, several months older was eligible to start Junior at a younger age and as a result has a full year more junior experience than Seguin. The year upcoming is the year Seguin should kick the crap out of junior (like Eberle this year).
While there are certainly trends (as thoroughly recounted by Malcolm Gladwell in the New Yorker and his book Outliers) in the birthdates of professional athletes it is far from certain that we can extrapolate to individual players. That said, Hall got all the breaks birthdate wise and Seguin has been fighting an uphill battle against his birthdate his entire playing career. Does that mean Seguin will be better than Hall in the long run, when birthdate ceases to matter? I wouldn't put much money down either way.
While there are certainly trends (as thoroughly recounted by Malcolm Gladwell in the New Yorker and his book Outliers) in the birthdates of professional athletes it is far from certain that we can extrapolate to individual players. That said, Hall got all the breaks birthdate wise and Seguin has been fighting an uphill battle against his birthdate his entire playing career. Does that mean Seguin will be better than Hall in the long run, when birthdate ceases to matter? I wouldn't put much money down either way.
ReplyDeleteI haven't read the book, but wouldn't Gladwell argue that Seguin has the advantage because he was older among his peers? I though his stats suggested that NHL players birthdays tend to be clustered at the start of the calendar year, since those players would always be the oldest in their group (and therefore bigger, stronger, more opportunity to play at higher levels as a child, better training and opportunities.) Hall would therefore be fighting the uphill battle, as he would've been one of the younger players among his peers. Seguin, on the other hand, would be at the upper age.
Still, according to Gladwell (I think), if all we knew was their birthday Seguin would be the better bet.
liinaeus: Again with the Hall/Seguin age myth. Hall is not 'several months older'; the difference is a mere 78 days.
ReplyDeleteNo, according to Gladwell, Hall with his late birthdate would be more likely to show improvement once he hits the NHL since that was when the age difference disadvantage would disappear.
ReplyDeleteI think it has to be Hall, too...the kid was top 5 in the OHL in goals in his rookie year and that's what we need...a guy who can score goals.
ReplyDeleteWhat we need is someone who can play the damn game. We have for years.
ReplyDeleteBoth of these kids can. I like Seguin myself, just my preference but if we picked Hall I'd be fine with it.
I think they're both going to be very good NHL players.
we need is someone who can play the damn game
ReplyDeleteYOU "R" WRONG
We need the one with more culture.
We need the one with more culture.
ReplyDeleteYOU ARE STILL WRONG!
We need the one with more crust.
I'm with Black Dog on this one. To me it's very similar to the Gagner/Voracek debate. I preferred Voracek before the draft and at the time, but I was never going to complain if they took Gagner. They both looked like justifiable picks with a high likelihood of being real top six forwards. I couldn't imagine getting worked up about those two and nor can I see the point with Hall/Seguin.
ReplyDeleteI think Hall says those things because he's a competitive sonofabitch and he wants to be picked first. That kind of swagger is a good thing for any athlete IMO, especially for a goalscorer. He seems way too simple to be thinking about playing time or UFA status, but maybe I'm shortchanging him, or 18 yr olds in general. I think a typical fairly intelligent 18 yr old cares more about the positive affirmation of being picked first than the impact it may have on his career even less than a year from now. He may have had some specific coaching in this regard from parents/agents, but they were pushing a rolling stone downhill here I think.
@dawgbone
ReplyDeleteYeah sure I know that. But I was referring to the first comment in the article
"Although most Oiler fans seem to be leaning toward Tyler Seguin"
If you want to know what the fans think a place like HFboards would be a good place to go.
It is extremely unprofessional to be hounding prospects during the hockey season while they are playing for other teams, and not under contract to you.
ReplyDeleteDamn those unprofessional Sabres:
What type of interaction do you have with the Sabres organization throughout your season?
We talk occasionally on the phone, they just check up on me and tell me what I need to work on still.
In talking to other prospects I know the Sabres stay in contact with you throughout the season. Is there contact mostly telling you what to improve on or do they look for feedback from you as well?
I think it's a little bit of both. The biggest thing they focus on with goalies is to explain that it is a long process and it's one the positions where you need a lot of maturity. They basically look to make sure your technique is getting better, your getting quicker and stronger throughout the season. They basically rely on me to tell them how I am playing.
With a goalie it is difficult to just look at the box scores and tell how they are playing, The biggest thing they say to me is "keep developing, keep working on your game and get better". We have a lot of resources here at North Dakota that allow me to get better by spending extra time on the ice and working on my game everyday.
Damn those unprofessional Islanders:
Have the Islanders been keeping in touch with you?
Oh yeah. They've made it up here for a couple of weekends of games, and we stay in touch. I send them an update about once a month on how things are going, how my health is, everything like that.
Have the Islanders been in touch about your injury?
Yeah, they were on the phones right away. I'm already getting good treatment here, but they'll have their docs look at me, too. It's just good to get as many opinions as possible and get the best care you can. Whether it's injuries or my trade or anything else, in my one-and-a-half years in the organization the Islanders have been first-class all the way.
Fans have also noticed that you're scoring picked up this year. Is that a goal the Islanders asked you to work on, or something you personally wanted to do, or has it just evolved?
The Islanders just want me to try to be a dominant player, period. The scoring, that's part of it, but I've had a lot of help from my teammates. I just wanted to round out my play this year and prove I could be a complete player. Prove I could put the puck in the net, complete a hit, fight, be a shutdown guy, do it all...
Damn those unprofessional Ducks:
"They're happy with how I progressed this season," Clark says of the Anaheim front office, "They're obviously happy with the two awards, [Best Body Checker and Best Defensive-Defenseman], I received in the [OHL Eastern Conference] Coaches' poll, and they're really happy with my development. They've been monitoring me and telling me what I need to work on, and I've been trying to apply those [things] to my games. They were, needless to say, very happy with me and excited to get the next step going."
Damn those unprofessional Leafs:
ReplyDeleteHow often are you in contact with the Maple Leafs?
I talk to them quite often. Probably once every two weeks and they probably come to my games once every two weeks. It's such a good league there are always guys getting scouted and they aren't that far away. It works out well.
Damn those unprofessional Flyers:
How much communication have you had with people in the Flyers organization this year? Who specifically is the person you usually talk to and what do you usually talk about?
I talk to [goaltending coach] Jeff Reese and [scout] Neil Little, mostly. They call me or Jeff calls me once a month or so just to see how I'm doing and I'll call them if I have any questions or anything. Don Luce, director of player [development], has been very helpful as well. Like I said, I've been going through a bit of a slump right now. I'm not playing as well as I was in the first half and they've all been extremely supportive and they don't want me to start forcing things. They know they drafted me for a reason and I just need to remember that and continue to work hard and stay positive and sure enough things will come around
LT said...
ReplyDeleteAlthough most Oiler fans seem to be leaning toward Tyler Seguin...
Source? Otherwise that phrase strikes me as a framing statement.
Like other posters above, I don't think this statement is necessarily true. I certainly haven't seen any solid evidence to that effect. I believe the org really is leaning toward Seguin, but the fans seem pretty evenly split to me, with perhaps even an edge to Hall.
enough coach, you're making me depressed.
ReplyDelete@jeff
ReplyDeleteMy mistake, I totally missed the fans part and read it as what the Oilers were thinking of doing.
My bad.
Coach pb9617, all of those prospects are exclusively North American.
ReplyDeleteWhether that matters when compared to guys overseas, I don't know. We do know that guys like Petry, Nash, etc have always remained in contact with the organization.
We do know that guys like Petry, Nash, etc have always remained in contact with the organization.
ReplyDeleteDo you have a source or a quote for that?
They didn't talk to Dee. They didn't talk to Wild. I've got quotes to that effect. There are a myriad of others not as brave.
Is no one else concerned that Hall is a guy who will top out very early and never become great?
ReplyDeleteHe hasn't shown a lot of "upward curve" lately, and there's a possibility that he was an early bloomer.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't Gladwell's outlier principle favour Seguin over Hall?
ReplyDeleteSeguin had a birthday in January, meaning that relative to the cohort of players he was competing against, 1992-born players, he would have been bigger, more mature, and more likely to be selected for additional attention and training from coaches.
Hall is at the opposite side of the spectrum being born in December. Relative to 1991-born players he was competing against he would have been much younger.
It's important to remember that Gladwell's idea is one of averages. Hall very well might be an exception who, despite being younger than his competition, was bigger, stronger, and faster and was therefore still able to receive special attention.
This effect also becomes additionally confounded when these players become eligible for junior in the CHL. There, because Hall was a late birthday he was able to enter junior a year earlier than Seguin. Because of that he's undoubtedly had some benefit from being in a very good Windsor organization an additional year.
If you take the view that development that's missed can still be caught up on later, then Gladwell would favour Hall. If you take the view development is most beneficial during early formative periods then Gladwell might favour Seguin. Either way it probably ends up being less of a factor than that of the additional year of junior Hall had.
jon k: I don't think that's exactly accurate re: Gladwell. The earlier birthdate would favor Seguin in his development in minor hockey vs Hall and would increase his chances of developing into an NHL-calibre player.
ReplyDeleteBut at this point in their careers it's different. They're both NHL-calibre prospects now regardless of their earlier odds of becoming so. Now what Gladwell said was that the later birthdates tend to catch up if they hit the NHL, because the size and maturity disadvantage disappears. Hence, his theory would favor Hall from this point onwards.
Hall was a top 20 scorer in his first season...top 10 in his second season...and tied for the top in his third season...seems like a pretty good upward curve to me.
ReplyDeleteSeguin, on the otherhand, the curve from his first to second season certainly is a lot steeper, I'll give you that. The question is, will he be able to keep that curve going up will it plateau or even trend the other way?
I listened to the pipeline show interview with Dee and some other prospect I didn't catch. They were asked if the team had been in contact with them concerning their seasons. Dee definitely said he heard from them like once a year in the offseason if I recall. Might be a result of the organization giving up on a guy though. Dee's been pretty much an absolute bust aside from this season, which likely has more to do with playing with Gustav Nyquist than anything else.
ReplyDeleteAs a side note, Nyquist is a 2008 4th round selection by Detroit. Scored 19-42-61 in 39 games this year and was the best player in NCAA.
Between he and Almquist, the fellow selected last overall in the 2009 draft, Detroit's been getting back on track with the late European selections.
I'd say we should stick to drafting Euros with "quist" in their last name, but even that didn't work out for us.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that worries me about Hall is that he is a power forward who seems to get many of his points by being physically dominant but he isn't actually that big. 6'1 and 185 with speed can dominate junior defenceman but I can't see him driving the net with any ease against regehr or mitchell etc. A smallish power forward seems a recipe for injury as well. Seguin seems the more cerebral player, relying more on smarts than raw talent and imho wouldn't be as big an injury risk.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that worries me about Hall is that he is a power forward who seems to get many of his points by being physically dominant but he isn't actually that big
ReplyDeleteSo we have this Gilbert Brule... *sigh*
Hall is 200 lbs right now, according to various reports by the talking heads on TSN, SN, CBC.
ReplyDeleteDustin Brown is only 6'1". I think he's got a pretty good power forward rep.
ReplyDeleteJarome Iginla is only 6"1" as well.
ReplyDeleteMy worry with Hall is becoming more and more this:
He gets blown up all the fucking time. In Junior. And as much as it's nice to see a guy take a hit to make a play, injuries HAVE to be a concern moving forward.
Just have to be.
Maybe he's one of those SOBs that can't get hurt...you know the opposite of glass players that always seem to get hurt?
ReplyDeleteYou know the unbreakable David Dunn to a Sheldon Souray-esque Mr. Glass?
Maybe he's one of those SOBs that can't get hurt...you know the opposite of glass players that always seem to get hurt?
ReplyDeleteHeck, look at Cogliano. He's taken some hellacious hits (especially boarding) and hasn't missed a game.
I think everyone's wrong in the choice between Seguin and Hall.
ReplyDeleteWe need to pick the "Onion".
godot=Pendergrast?
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone in particular is waiting for Pendergast.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Gladwell goes ... I don't see why he applies. I mean, who here would put their faith in statistics? ;)
ReplyDeleteAnyone play ball hockey? We're playing a team that's a division higher than we are and they have a guy who was the 3rd highest scorer in the AJHL this season. He's got 12 points in 2 games so far (7G 5A). Yikes. Any tips on shutting a guy like that down?
ReplyDelete@Ribs, IMHO shadowing is particularly effective in ball hockey. (I assume if they're a division higher, they got enough depth that double teaming the guy would end in ruin.)
ReplyDeleteHard to score with a broken shin bone or two...
ReplyDeleteLMHF#1 wrote:
ReplyDelete"Is no one else concerned that Hall is a guy who will top out very early and never become great?
He hasn't shown a lot of "upward curve" lately, and there's a possibility that he was an early bloomer."
It's something I've wondered a bit about from what I've read. It's definitely something the scouts have to consider. It may well be.
It's worth looking at the possibility Hall is getting by on his physical skills, and doesn't have the hockey sense to keep improving at the NHL level. I have no idea if that's the case, but from what I've read Seguin is considered to be the better player in terms of hockey sense, a "skill" that I personally place a lot of value in evaluating a prospect.
Obviously hockey sense doesn't correlate perfectly with assist totals, but it would seem a bit unusual that a player lacking hockey sense to lead his junior league in assists (Hall).
Ribs: A 40 of tequila, gift-wrapped with his name on it.
ReplyDeletejon k said:
ReplyDeleteSeguin had a birthday in January, meaning that relative to the cohort of players he was competing against, 1992-born players, he would have been bigger, more mature, and more likely to be selected for additional attention and training from coaches.
-----
That's quite a lot of assumptions simply based on Seguin's birth date. We know the most important factor--the advantage of being the oldest each year--is completely and utterly false for Seguin as he's always played against older kids. Recent article by John MacKinnon in the Journal:
"From the time he was six, Tyler always played up an age (category)," said his father, Paul Seguin, who played college hockey for the University of Vermont, where he was roomed with future NHL sniper John LeClair. "I was always a believer growing up that you need to be constantly challenged. "When things got easy for Tyler, I always tried to put him in a situation where he had to push himself more."
So much so that when the Seguins were living in the Toronto suburb of Whitby and the hockey association wanted to keep the then-10-year-old Tyler in his own age group to strengthen that team, Paul Seguin up and moved the family to Brampton, west of the big city, rather than risk seeing his son's development slowed.
The father moved his family, keep in mind, so his son wouldn't be the star of a team in his own age group, but would have to play with older, better players. It's no exaggeration to say that hockey excellence is in Tyler Seguin's genes.
-----
Applying Gladwell to Seguin is just as much a myth as Hall being several months older.
I sm not Prendergast.
ReplyDeleteI have been more critical of Prendergast than not. Geez. I got the Pipeline show guys all mad at me for mentioning that they were pro-Prendergast people in the great-neverending-Riley-Nash-debate.
If I am a European team with a player under contract, I don't want an NHL team talking to my player directly during the season without permission.
The CHL is different. They have a contractual relationship with the NHL, and many of their coaches want AHL and NHL jobs, so they let NHL people talk a lot to their prospects. Plus, the players don't have professional contracts with their CHL team.
If I'm a US college AD, I would want an NHL team to ask permission to directly contact a player under scholarship during the season.
I would presume the NHL teams that are big talkers are extending a courtesy to European teams and US college AD's.
I don't see the need to micromanage a prospect not under contract to you during the season, unless it is something urgent.
The January birth thing is not really Gladwell's idea. He popularized the idea, but it is NOT originally his. It had been advanced and floating around the ether for quite awhile.
ReplyDeleteGladwell used it because it supported the thesis he was asserting in Outliers.
speeds said...
ReplyDeletebut from what I've read Seguin is considered to be the better player in terms of hockey sense
No offense, speeds, as from what I can tell you are usually a pretty astute & sincere fella, but unless I see a source for this, I'm going to have to consider it as more meme-making from the masses.
I haven't seen a single scout put anything concrete down on paper about either of these young men, but if you have, I would love to read it.
@Ribs, IMHO shadowing is particularly effective in ball hockey. (I assume if they're a division higher, they got enough depth that double teaming the guy would end in ruin.)
ReplyDeleteYea, I'm thinking this is our best line of defense as well (the shadow). Now I just have to convince someone who can run to follow the guy around.
Hard to score with a broken shin bone or two...
Hah, well, it's only ball hockey we're talking about here. If nothing else works we'll give it a shot.
Ribs: A 40 of tequila, gift-wrapped with his name on it.
This would be a good idea if I thought the bottle would make it out of our dressing room.
Thanks guys, I'll let you know how it turns out!
The first place I ever read the pro sports versus birth date concept was, I think, in Freak Economics. It has certainly been kicking around for a while. It actually has a neat link to Edmonton. One of the principal authors was actually from here.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.socialproblemindex.ualberta.ca/RelAgeMinorHockeyCJBS.pdf
That is Barnsley's 1988 paper rather than the 1985 that started the entire field as far as I can tell but isn't available online (I believe - please correct me if I am wrong).
What I was saying about Hall was, if we believe Gladwell - there is actually quite a bit of dissent on why the effect exists, that he jumped through a very tough hurdle, playing against kids much bigger stronger and older his first year in Junior. This might say something about his ability to adjust quickly to a bigger, faster, stronger game. On the other hand from there on he has it easy relative to Seguin.
The next year, when Seguin joins the league Hall is several months older (which at that age can be a huge gap) and he has a full year extra experience. In judging them against each other, which was sort of what we were engaged in, Seguin has had the uphill battle, Hall is always older and always more experienced. Now from this blog I've learned that all his life (until Junior) Seguin has played against older kids. Now consider that he has in two years made up the point gap on Hall, a player several months older and more importantly, a year more experienced.
I think, after everything I've read I'd take Seguin but it is a very close call.
Tequila straight is my wife's favourite drink. I find it can be used to encourage all manner of beneficial behaviours.
Oh,
ReplyDeleteI nearly forgot. There is also tons of research that says where you come from is way more important than when you were born in whether you make it as a professional athlete. It is worth noting that neither when or where has been proven to be important in how good a pro you will become. The only reliable predictor, all compounding factors aside, is draft order, and even that is only modestly correlated. So maybe scouts do know something.
spOILer:
ReplyDeleteI've only read that, or interpreted that, from what I've read around the internet. Can't find any links from known scouts at the moment. I suppose my inferences might be wrong, but that's my understanding having read some about each player around HF etc.
I haven't seen much of either player, but presumably each of them have different strengths, including hockey sense. Hall, reportedly, is better at generating his own chances while Seguin looks to use his teammates more. I suppose that doesn't necessarily mean Seguin has better hockey sense than Hall, but that's my underderstanding
http://www.islanderspointblank.com/2010/02/too-early-for-the-tytaylcam-watchbut-a-fine-time-for-point-blanks-nhl-draft-top-5/
ReplyDeleteI think one could infer that this scout thinks Seguin has the better hockey sense, but it's not explicitly stated.
A good whiskey or tequila would have been my suggestion, but you should drink it with him.
ReplyDeleteSorry godot,you kinda sounded like him.
As much as you can sound like anything in type.
And a quality tequila or whiskey is drank with ice.
ReplyDeletesorry, i thought the quotes all came from one scout, in fact they come from 12 scouts.
ReplyDeleteGin. Gin. Gin.
ReplyDeleteGin. Gin. Gin.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I know he is not trying to get the player to remove his underwear.
I could be wrong.
Damn. I should read the whole thread. I thought someone needed help with the fairer sex.
ReplyDeleteSorry.
I would presume the NHL teams that are big talkers are extending a courtesy to European teams and US college AD's.
ReplyDeleteI don't see the need to micromanage a prospect not under contract to you during the season, unless it is something urgent.
I see a problem when the Oilers can't develop a damn thing and refuse to talk to the kids. Every other organization is talking to these kids regularly. Hell - the Sabres are sending tapes out to these kids with annotations on what to watch for.
Defending the Oilers for being proper in this context is insane. I'd expect it from some of the stepfords, but not from you.
Prendergast and Sillinger should be shown the door immediately.
Gin. Gin. Gin.
ReplyDeleteAnd Pellegrino. With a lime.
Ah jesus. Is birthdate really an argument here?
ReplyDeleteGod damit we're talking about kids 78 days away from each other. I mean i know you guys like stats, but that's getting into a whole other zone. It's getting silly.
They'l have 20 years to erase away theyr date of birth's effects. And even then, i don't believe in that theory. Some kids develop faster than others anyway. So the younger one might be stronger. At that level it's not really a matter.
hall is cant miss seguin comes with ?????? oilers with the first choice draft from the windsor spitfires taylor hall final
ReplyDeleteWell, we managed to keep him from getting goals, and fortunately, he kept his panties on, so that's some minor accomplishments.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately though, he still produced 3 assists on the night. I think one of them they gave to the wrong guy but whatever. Two were powerplay assists. Bah. None of them were while I was on the playing surface. I had a stellar shadow shift going where their entire team was trying to pass it to the guy but I was all over him. Tiring work.
The score ended 6-2 but I think it was closer than it sounds. They had a hard fought empty netter at the end and our replacement goalie let in at least one questionable goal (maybe two). I managed to score one to keep my point per game season going (hold on now, we're only 3 games in). They had a defenceman that plays for the Storm (Jr.A as well) and he was very good. I also managed to get a gloved shot to the face after crosschecking a guy after he did the same to my linemate. They guy ended up getting a nice misconduct penalty for his efforts.
Good times. Now for the Gin...
This guy will convince anyone sitting on the fence.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACZwi1pnrFI