Gare Joyce told us in his Heartbreak book that NHL teams pay no real attention to the final CSB list. Reason? They've made their own lists and (unlike earlier editions of the Central list) these clubs have scouted the players and discarded some while elevating others. I have been told that the average fan would be surprised at how many quality prospects don't make the final cut for some NHL team lists for one reason or another. Sometimes it is their place of birth (Russia is going through a bad period because of signability issues) and other times it has to do with size (Jordan Weal is quite small) and still other times there are organizational biases at work (in listening to Bob Stauffer lately I get the feeling the Oilers will avoid college wingers).
I don't think there's much to be learned from the Central Scouting List. Bob McKenzie has a glance at it here and his new top 10 next week will be a more interesting read. Redline Report should have something up soon and beginning on Monday I'll be starting my Oilers 09-10 in review (by player). There will also be some more draft stuff sprinkled throughout April.
The head of central scouting was on 1260 this morning and he said their list was made after the first playoff game between Windsor and Plymouth.
ReplyDeleteFlaming and Millard at "Coming Down the Pipe" discuss Hall and Seguin with Sportsnet, Sam Consentino. Both of them have had Seguin as there number one for a while and indicate that there may some red flags starting to creep up about Hall.
ReplyDeletehttp://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2010/04/seguin-injured-red-flags-for-hall.html
I'm still quite torn on who I want the Oilers to pick, especially if we get the number 1 pick. But, if you look at the past championship teams, they all had great skill up the middle. So maybe I'm leaning more to the Seguin camp.
LT - why do you think Seguin may be who they are leaning towards?
ReplyDeleteI get the feeling the Oilers will avoid college wingers.
ReplyDeleteStrange, considering they picked Ryan Jones off waivers from Nashville...
Black Dog: I think the Oilers would still choose Hall if they won the lottery at this point. However, Seguin imo would be a better pick because:
ReplyDelete1. He's closing late. That's really important.
2. He's a center.
3. He's younger.
Anyone want a good chuckle:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/nhl/article/792081--cox-hall-seguin-can-t-fix-oiler-cap-problems
I don't know much about Damian Cox, but I think he's gotten into some kind of mind altering drugs. He's lumping Hemsky's and Gilbert's contracts in with Souray and Khabbi's. Penner might have turned a corner this year, so his contract would definitely be up for debate. He's also puts up the idea that we should trade down in the draft to get rid of one of our "bad" contracts...
Wow...I'm not sure he's ever watched an Oilers game...especially when Hemmer is playing. Worth the price of admission...like Kessel's contract isn't 'bad'. I'm pretty sure Hemsky has/will be outperforming his current contract, which is less than Kessel's.
Man...media in the Big Smoke...smoking something that's for sure...
LT - ah, gotcha, I thought you had changed your mind about who you thought the Oilers would pick
ReplyDeleteI agree with you. I think they pick Hall but I would prefer Seguin. Hall is more NHL ready and is the better player right now but I think Seguin will be the better player down the road.
Next week is like the start of a second for those of us Oiler fans who do the online thing.
ReplyDeleteThanks in advance LT. Looking forward to the writeups.
that should read second christmas...
ReplyDeleteQuinn's comments sounds like he understands the importance of a right handed center who can play all zones - I think he'd lean toward Seguin (even though he said he'd never seen him play)
ReplyDeleteI think whoever wins the lottery takes Hall.Secretly I'm hoping we pick 2nd.
ReplyDelete1. He's closing late.
ReplyDeleteYou mean those four big goose eggs he laid getting swept by Windsor?
I said it yesterday's thread and I'll say it again; for someone who almost every scouting report indicates "an ability to make players around him better", he's not living up to expectations against real competition.
If we pick him, I'm hoping he gets sent back to junior to finish developing.
Also, Quinten Howden's the 19th ranked NA skater. If he's still there by 31, I'd be jumping for joy.
I'm a little worried about "top end" with Hall, and whether his development is flattening.
ReplyDeleteYou see this more often in female athletes who peak really early and don't seem to benefit from experience, but Hall didn't really make any leaps the last couple of years. This could suggest that he's not truly dominant, a little bored, he's topping out, or that he's holding something back. I haven't watched him enough to venture a guess, but I'd rather take the guy on the rapid upswing than the one who seems to be trundling along.
The playoff series might throw people off though. See the stats from that Windsor-Plymouth game last night? WOW!
I said the same thing yesterday Gerta - about hoping to finish 2nd. Takes the anxiety out of the pick - we'll get a good player either way. Perhaps now though with Central Scouting camparing Hall to Zack Parise, we'll instictivly take the French kid:o)
ReplyDelete3. He's younger.
ReplyDeleteIs 3 months substantial?
Though you could argue that extra year in the OHL should not be discounted.
I'm firmly in the Hall camp, but I'm just happy we will be getting a legitimate first liner to build the team around for the next decade.
YEOWWWWW
Pat Burns hospitalized for Pneumonia, as per TSN.ca
ReplyDeleteYes. And i think it's a really flawed procurement department, who will ignore a player's obvious talent over others because of size.
ReplyDeleteLook at how pathetic the Wild are at drafting. And if you don't notice a trend, i think they drafted 1 man under 6''0.
Jordan Weal shouldn't be passed on just for size. He still scored more than twice the number some top prospect put up. The only man i would take over him in the 2nd round or late first round would be Kirill Kabanov.
"Is 3 months substantial?"
ReplyDeleteSeguiin is a full development year behind because of his birth date.
Brendan Gallagher ranked 174 NA
ReplyDeleteWHL 72 41 40 81 111
Playoffs 7 8 7 15 6
Might be a nice mid round pick.
Trak:
ReplyDeleteHe must be an overage player?
That Damian Cox article is plain bizarre, apparently Penner's contractis so toxic that we'd trade down from our top-2 pick into the 6-8 range, just to have someone take him off our hands. And to think, on this hallowed ground only yesterday the delusional and cheese-addled were actually discussing a Return on trading Penner.
ReplyDeleteBoy, were we ever out to lunch!
Alice: No team in the league needs a 240 pound 30-goal scorer. That's not how you win hockey games.
ReplyDeleteOnline draft simulator. Wheee!!
ReplyDeleteThe Cox article is one of the reasons that the MSM is becoming less and less relevant.
ReplyDeleteWhen LT posts something, he knows that he will be accountable to a group of the smartest hockey fans for what he says. He can't throw down a bunch of BS because his work is peer-reviewed. Cox is much more insulated (those internet comments are so annoying!).
The fact that Cox gets paid and a guy like LT doesn't is such an absurdity.
Hell, even Dan Barnes today was throwing out the idea that we should send Hall/Seguin to OKC. If the best sportswriter in the city doesn't know that's impossible for an 18-year old out of the CHL, I pretty much give up hope.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePDO:
ReplyDeleteUndersized at 5.08 but the PIMS tells us he has some fight.
Brendan Gallagher was one of only 3 players this year to score 40 goals and hit 100+ PIMS in the WHL.
Kyle Beach (1990 birth date) and Bretton Cameron (1989 birth date) were the others.
Gallagher has a 1992 birth date.
PDO,
ReplyDeleteThe CHL Splits by year-of-birth, but the draft not exactly the same, so Hall in 3rd Jr A campaign, Seguin in his 2nd. Presumably, the extra year experience should give Hall an edge, so they try to factor that out by giving Seguin a little more credit for his numbers being in his 2nd yr.
Not saying one way or the other, but that's the age/experience skew that's being talked about.
Alice, I guess Cox hasn't looked at the stats lately, but Iggy has 32-37-69 and is -1, while Penner is 32-31-63 and +8. Gee is that $7M cap hit for Iggy worth it versus Penner's measly $4.25 cap hit ?
ReplyDeleteHmmm ... I wonder.
Penner being a +8 on a team that's a -66 goal differential is practically a miracle !!!
Alice:
ReplyDeleteI think you meant PJO :)
Trak:
So he's 5'8" and last year was his draft year?
Definitely worth a shot, especially since it's not impossible for him to grow a couple inches still.
"As well, Edmonton has forward Ales Hemsky, less than a point-a-game player over his career, on the books for $9.5 million over the next two years"
ReplyDeleteWhat a fucking idiot.
PDO:
ReplyDeleteThis is his draft year. He is 7 months younger than Hall.
Trak:
ReplyDeleteSo this is his draft year, he had 40 goals... I under he's 5'8", but there must be some other sort of massive red flag to have him that low?
That Cox article is stunningly awful... Hemsky is one of the best non ELC's in the entire league.
Oh, and for all the degenerates like me, apparently Miller is getting the start for Buffalo tonight because Lalime can't go due to flu... and Buffalo is available at +155.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWith the head-shot rule, a 5.8 guy might be bloody hard to deal with - you'd have to bend down to get a legal piece of him. Seriously, if that rule is applied with consistency it's going to benefit guys with that kind of size differential. Not the in-between smurfs, but the real Leprechauns like buddy Gallagher. Draft him, stop feeding him milk, give him a 60 lb rucksack to carry around for the next 18 months. That can't be the worst idea rattling around come June 25?
ReplyDeleteBurke is pushing bringing back holding (i.e. guiding players into the boards). If they do that, small guys will be taken out of the game again.
ReplyDeleteBurke has all these big slow defenseman who are impotent against tiny speedsters.
P.S. Kabanov wants to play someplace warm. Thank heavens.
I assumed that Cox is essentially a professional Troll, there is no way someone could be that clueless unintentionally.
ReplyDeleteHe just wants us to talk about him, so stop talking about him!
There is a belief in wide circulation, and hey we feed it here, that the Oilers management are a bunch of morons. That leads to the assumption that they will do truly stupid things. The main stream media merely reflects that back at us.
ReplyDeleteEdmonton should trade their #1 pick to Toronto for Rask and Toronto's 1st.
ReplyDeleteI really don't see any reason to read the MSM sports "journalists" anymore. I'm 100% serious.
ReplyDeleteA few guys like McKenzie are great sources of information about junior hockey. Occasionally, someone has reliable reports about trade rumors, but it's so hard to tell the coal from the diamonds, there's not much point in looking at any of the rumors.
What else do MSM guys offer? Seriously, I can't think of a single thing. At all. The analysis they do is pretty much uniformally bad. (It aims at being a certain kind of banal entertainment, not at being true or informative.)
If anyone disagrees, please let me know what I'm missing. Be specific. I'm willing to hear arguments that there are some guys, maybe Barnes, that I should be reading. I'm open to being convinced.
kris:
ReplyDeleteI totally agree. Now that the internet has "arrived", the sports team itself should be the primary source of news.
After all, the MSM guys closely follow the corporate line anyway, so what is the difference between reading their stuff and just reading the corporate propaganda straight from the Oilers' website?
90% of the added value now comes from the people who are free to have opinions. ie. the blogosphere
Something tells me that Seguin at #1 is a result of people over-thinking things a little bit. With the two being neck-and-neck for so long but Hall being #1, I think more people have been looking for flaws in him than with Seguin. It kind of reminds me of people putting Bogosian ahead of Doughty last year in their rankings.
ReplyDeleteI still think Hall goes 1st, and I also believe it'll be the right choice for whoever makes it (we haven't won the lottery yet).
kris, conan,
ReplyDeleteAll due respect but you are wrong.
The main stream media has three roles that are very hard to duplicate without becoming the MSM.
1) Providing access to experts. Pat Quinn isn't going to call LT up and discuss how he feels about the importance of having a RH-center who can play in all zones. A bunch of Bruce Beuno de Mesquita's graduate students showed just how valuable that access is (BBdM is the foremost expert on game theory as applied to decision making). His students showed they could correctly predict the outcome of major international events simply by taking expert opinion as presented in the MSM and vetting it through a lens of healthy self-interest. More than that, they could use the same process to offer great insight into what should be done. Notice, they didn't access these experts they just trusted what the MSM had quoted them as saying.
2) The MSM gives us the informed story. The informed story is the one where we learn not just the facts but so much more. David Staples brilliant coverage of the murders of miners in Yellowknife is a good example. I could go on and on giving examples by the way.
3) The MSM has the tools to pursue new information.
For example, have you ever wondered if we traded Riley Nash who might want him?
If I relied on the blogosphere only for my info I'd have nothing but speculation.
A good reporter with well developed sources might be able to get some idea what the Oilers are planning and who might be interested in Nash, also who the Oilers might want back.
The idea that all the local media do is flack for the Oilers ignores that a) not all local sports media, never mind those in other cities, are beholding to the Oilers and b) without the media there would be no pressure on the Oilers to ever release any information.
Agree with misfit. There's probably some additional apprehension in light of Duchene performing better than Tavares this season.
ReplyDelete2) The MSM gives us the informed story. The informed story is the one where we learn not just the facts but so much more. David Staples brilliant coverage of the murders of miners in Yellowknife is a good example. I could go on and on giving examples by the way.
ReplyDeleteUnless this murder was committed by Jaromir Jagr, I don't think thi is relevent to kris's general complaint.
If it was committed by Jagr, I wonder if we could get him at a cheaper cap hit...
Seriously
ReplyDeleteWhy don't we call NJD head of scouting and offer him 50K cash to spend 1 hour in with the Magnificent Bastard talking top pick
No conflict I am sure NJD would love to divert the better prospect to the Western conference
I think Seguin is potentially a more valuable player than Hall, but the buzz around him makes me think of Kyle Turris.
ReplyDeleteWith Hall, I think you're pretty much guaranteed an all-star calibre forward, with gifts and flaws, kinda like Dany Heatley.
Nobody would trade a prime-years Yzerman for a Dany Heatley, but the problem is, the likelihood of Seguin becoming that player is much less than Hall becoming another Dany.
Regardless we will get a top prospect, and Im almost hoping we lose the lottery and arent left agonizing over the decision for the next decade.
In Stu We Trust
ReplyDeleteok now Im not worried.
Linnaeus:
ReplyDeleteI like your comments - I don't always agree with them, but they're thoughtful and often go against the accepted wisdom around these parts, which I respect. Generally they give me something to chew on.
Your point about access is a good one. Would you agree, though, that (a) generally speaking, print media has provided more depth and intelligence than TV, radio, or whatever, and that (b) over the last decade or two, print media and the MSM in general has for the most part failed to adapt to the quantity and (occasional) quality of information/analysis available through alternate sources?
Basically I think newspapers in particular have responded to the rise of the blogs, etc. in entirely the wrong way: they've dumbed themselves down, reduced themselves to soundbites off the wire, and wasted their advantages (most notably access to sources) to the point that they're really not worth reading (that's a generalization, of course - there are obvious exceptions). I'm not just talking about sports reporting, either.
I could get into this a lot more, using specific examples, but it seems to me that all I do around here is derail threads, so I'll use a bit of restraint. I'm interested in what you have to say in response, though - or what anyone else has to say, for that matter.
Linus:
ReplyDeleteOkay, be specific. Name three pieces of information that you've gotten from the MSM about the Oilers in the last 3 years that came from their "access." And information that would've come out via press release anyway, say in the week when the story was written, doesn't count for obvious reasons. (I'm willing to admit that the team uses the MSM as a glorified press release; instead of just writing things up on Oilers.nhl.com, they have, say, Brownlee write a story about it.)
For example, have you ever wondered if we traded Riley Nash who might want him?
If I relied on the blogosphere only for my info I'd have nothing but speculation.
But we don't have that information and we never get any information like it from the MSM. All you have is speculation anyway! And even if you hear a rumor, from say Gregor, it's always unreliable. And rumors are always reported with weasel words to suggest it's all speculative anyway: "some sources are saying there may have been some talks about an Oilers player, maybe Nash, and an Eastern conference team may be involved." There's too much noise in the rumors to detect a signal. For example, Brownlee seems to imply -he never stakes anything on the claim, usually uses weasel words and out clauses- that the Oilers were thinking about moving Gilbert. Were they? How serious was it? How reliable is what Brownlee says about this? Could he be mistaken? Could management be feeding him false information?
Fuck, even during the Heatley thing the local media didn't tell us one thing that was worthwhile knowing. Not one fucking thing about a story that had the whole town fired up. Their access, as usual, was useless. They either didn't know anything we didn't or they were too afraid to say it. Either way, their access didn't result in us learning anything. If so, what did we learn?
A good reporter with well developed sources might be able to get some idea what the Oilers are planning and who might be interested in Nash, also who the Oilers might want back.
A good reporter would do that/ But as Brownlee points out, if you report anything that the team doesn't like, then you lose your access. So you can only report what they want you to. And you're therefore not a reporter, but a mouthpiece, like Oilers.nhl.com, or Tencer, or Stauffer, just not on the payroll.
David Staples brilliant coverage of the murders of miners in Yellowknife is a good example. I could go on and on giving examples by the way.
Will some of the examples involve the Oilers? I'm not saying all MSM is useless, just local sports "journalism" and hockey rumor writers and "analysts" more generally. (Exceptions are very rare -guys like McKenzie- and they don't exist in Edmonton.)
A bunch of Bruce Beuno de Mesquita's graduate students showed just how valuable that access is (BBdM is the foremost expert on game theory as applied to decision making). His students showed they could correctly predict the outcome of major international events simply by taking expert opinion as presented in the MSM and vetting it through a lens of healthy self-interest. More than that, they could use the same process to offer great insight into what should be done. Notice, they didn't access these experts they just trusted what the MSM had quoted them as saying.
1. You need to link to an academic study like this if you're going to paraphrase its conclusions.
2. Game theory is cool, but limited in it's applications. IMO. And more importantlu, I'm willing to admit the MSM provides usefull information in general -about say international affairs- just not about the Oilers.
To go with what Pete says, James Mirtle is a good example of an MSM guy who is actually value added to read. He combines access with actual elbow grease in trying to understand and discuss the game of hockey. A guy like Cox probably has all the access in the world and the best he comes up with is some bullcrap about trading down to get rid of Hemsky's contract.
ReplyDeleteThere's certainly many in between, but many of those sports writers are paid to essentially regurgitate cliches or scold the villain athlete of the week. Edmonton's media is a pretty good example of essentially being cliches wrapped up in a press release, for all the talk of access all we get out of them is what the Oilers want us to hear and know.
I did that NHL lottery thing 10 times and the Oilers only one once. Boston won four times and Florida won three times.
ReplyDeleteI'll start believing in the MSM again once someone finds out whose basement Ryan Stone is being kept in.
ReplyDeleteFor the record, my money is on Pisani's.
One piece of info that MSM has access to that the blogosphere is totally clueless to is the relative trade value of players.
ReplyDeleteOn the internet.....everybody has an opinion as to the relative trade value of all players. Unless you have access to sources in NHL front offices, you have no clue whether the rest of the league shares your view as to the relative value of your teams assets.
Matheson is still relatively good at that and, at one point,Kenzie is the 31st GM when it comes to that type of information.
I suspect the MSM in this market are far and away the worse at having their head up managements ass. The MSM is opening shooting at Sutter and King in Calagry and yet with a FAR worse record Lowe and "Tambi" are safe
I tried the Draft lottery thing once...and laughed out loud.
ReplyDeleteThe Phoenix Coyotes have won the lottery and will draft eleventh overall. With Calgary's draft choice, the Coyotes move up four spots, from fourteenth to tenth.
SB: That's why you play the games. YOU PLAY TO LOSE THE GAMES. It's pretty much win, win whomever we get and, if we do pick second, at least we won't have to argue whether or not the Oilers screwed up in picking Seguin over Hall (or the other way around.) Now, if they pick Fowler...
ReplyDeleteDG: I do love that... Torres fell off the radar completely the season before he got traded. It was a pretty good indicator we were never going to see him again.
kris,
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, my source for the piece about Bruce's students was his great book, The Predictioneer's Game. It will change your mind about the limited applicability of game theory. I can think of really good uses of Bruce's technology in the sports world, for example.
Second, I don't know if you remember my post about Chris Vande Velde and the bizarre events that followed their conference championship win. It said remarkable amounts about the intangibles VV brings to the table as a prospect. I only knew all that because, post game I was listening to radio coverage.
I'd tend to agree with you that the local Edmonton sports reporters do a poor job of adding anything of value. However, it isn't that they couldn't. Too old, too slow, too uncreative, not sure what the problem is but it isn't that they are reporters. I travel a great deal and also read print media from all over the world. There are some great sports reporters out there.
It isn't actually easy getting the story. To return to my Riley Nash example, a reporter I know got a one source, that says Edmonton and Phoenix have been talking and Nash came up. The Oilers apparently asked for Chris Summers. Unsigned college kid for unsigned college kid. However, since nobody will confirm he can't run with it. So rather than speculate he has just been sitting on it while trying to learn who the heck Chris Summers is and why the Oilers might want him. It is driving him crazy.
The thing is that ditz Cox at least had to multi-source his idiocy even to write it as rumor.
What we do here is much like Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's students, we try to provide the missing analysis. We take the information that the media gives us and turn it into something with narrative, and hopefully insight. However, without the local reporters, as bad as they are, we would have none of the needed info; what the OTC said, whose hurt, whose not, the TSN top 30 etc. By the way many reporters would like to provide detailed analysis but rarely are given the freedom by their editors. Kudos to the Journal for letting a great reporter like Staples spend all that time blogging with the rest of us hoi polloi.
Pete, the dumbing down of society is one of the worst trends of the last two decades and the media have been leading the big parade. Print is better because they have a bit more time to think before they spout. Also, there are still some dinosaurs left in the rags who grew up thinking they had a responsibility to the truth. Sadly, they are retiring quite quickly.
Tiger Woods is back. I can't imagine another player in the world matching the approach shot he just hit on 10. What a talent.
ReplyDeleteThat's what she said.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is that ditz Cox at least had to multi-source his idiocy even to write it as rumor.
ReplyDeleteAnd how many times have you seen "anonymous" as a source, or "A source close to the team" whenever crazy rumors are mentioned?
Journalists bullshit, they embellish. They have to if they want to further their careers. Hell, I've done it on interviews too. I don't speak francais but I can always respond "je ne comprend pas" if they ask me to translate.
Until they get rid of all this "anonymous source" bullshit, you can't take their word for anything.
Bruce - I'm thinking you're talking about 9 - Why not? It was a big hook. Many guys pull off stuff like that every year at the Masters, which is part of the reason it is the best major. Well played and executed, but the way everyone blows up what this guy does is what makes me get sick of him. It's like that bloody chip on 16 a few years back. In the moment, yes, well executed, yes, but if you watch the tournament and know that hole position from each year, that shot is totally makeable.
ReplyDeleteI can hit a hook like that Bruce.It's unintentional of course.And the next one goes left to right.And so on,and so on.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if anyone's seen it, but Jordan Eberle is Hockeysfuture's Prospect of the Year:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/12031/hockeys_future_prospect_of_the_year2010/
For the people talking about Brendan Gallagher and to a certain extent, Jordan Weal. If you lack size and aren't dynamic enough skill-wise to compensate for it, you can drop pretty far.
ReplyDeleteExamples
Colton Yellowhorn 5'7" 70 35-51-86 Undrafted in 2005 Currently in ECHL
Ryan McDonough 5'9" 68 39-49-88 Undrafted in 2006 Currently in Europe
John Hughes 5'10" 66 28-55-82 Undrafted in 2006 Currently in Europe
A source close to the MSM told me that Damien Cox has no idea WTF he's talking, actually has very few 'sources', and just pulls excrement out of his rear end to fill print quota, making it up as he goes along.
ReplyDeleteAnother source has also intimated that Damien Cox is completely disconnected from anything relevant to NHL hockey, and his ego is so toxic that he believes himself beyond reproach and ignores facts and reality least they intrude on his self aggrandized delusional view of himself as a hockey pundit.
Of course I can't name my sources.
LMHF: yeah, I suppose there's a few of those guys that could make a shot like that 1 time in 10. I shouldn't exaggerate, as you say enough has been said about the guy already.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad to see him back on the course, I'd rather talk about an superstar athlete than a tabloid target, thanks all the same.
Interesting thread over at HF - Gare Joyce is really not a fan of Krill Kabanov.
ReplyDeleteLink
Assuming that it IS the real Gare Joyce, anyways.
Edmonton should trade their #1 pick to Toronto for Rask and Toronto's 1st.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if this is what you were going for Traktor, but you COULD ask for that return. You'd just have to call Boston, not Toronto.
Hilarious whether or not that's what you intended good sir.
Bruce - I'll be glad when the tabloid crap stops too. I want to see great golf this week at one of the most beautiful courses in the world and that is about it.
ReplyDeleteOne day I'll go see it in person for sure.
Uni: Well played. I have no respect for Damien Cox, whose connection with the real world is tenuous indeed. Of the "six problematic contracts" he names, he has the term wrong on one and the dollar amount wrong on no fewer than four of them. That information is a fucking mouse click away, Damien, and its shoddy unprofessionalism on your part to let so many errors get out there under your byline. If you can't get the simple facts stright, WTF are your opinions worth?
ReplyDeleteBtw, Dustin Penner is the 60th highest paid forward in the NHL (tied with Joffrey F. Lupul!), and is one of 17 NHL players to hit 30-30 this season. Plus as someone pointed out above, a +8 on this Oiler team with its defence and goaltending. It's like Cox went out of his way to prove how unconnected/disconnected he really is. Brutal.
Linus,
ReplyDeleteThat sounded like a very roundabout way of saying you agree that there is no point in reading local MSM coverage of the Oilers and that they don't give us any information. (The one example of info you gave involves post game wrap ups of college hockey. No access needed. Not really MSM, per se, either.)
I agree that, and said as much, that some guys -not the MSM Edmonton guys, or 99% of MSM guys in general- are good at giving us some information on how prospects and potential picks are doing. McKenzie is the bomb here.
Also, you say:
I'd tend to agree with you that the local Edmonton sports reporters do a poor job of adding anything of value. However, it isn't that they couldn't.
Of course, they could do better. They could poop their pants and call it a burrito, too. Anything could happen. The thing is that the actually do nothing, and that's why there's no point in reading what they actually write. If I could read what they could possibly write, I would. :)
without the local reporters, as bad as they are, we would have none of the needed info;
Again, what info? Please name three pieces of information that came from the MSM guys in Edmonton, etc., etc. as I asked in my last post.
the needed info; what the OTC said, whose hurt, whose not, the TSN top 30 etc.
Injury info can be and is released on Oilers.nhl.com. Quinn can make a statement on the radio without questions, and the questions he gets are such softballs that he pretty much just is giving a statement when he talks. (Oh noz! A Dan Tencer question!)
Does anyone other than Linnuaeaus believe what he's saying?
And The TSN top 30? Really?
Schitzo: It is indeed Gare Joyce. His comments regarding Kabanov are not surprising with all that's happened surrounding him. He's a lightning rod for controversy after the KHL and now Moncton.
ReplyDeleteSchitzo,
ReplyDeleteThat would be Gare Joyce. HF confirms identities of guys like him and Bobby Mac before people jump all over them.
As for MSM, I like to think that linnaeus is right, but seeing the neutered Stauffer vs. the pre Oilers Team 1260 Stauffer, shows that the MSM in Edmonton either tows the Oiler line or they are screwed.
I think maybe Barnes is the only guy that is half decent, Ireland, Matty and the fat man have all lost touch...just mouthpieces for an organization that feels without reproach.
Why is the first few tidbits about red flags and Taylor Hall coming from a blog?
In hockey's MSM there are only a few guys worth their salt...
McKenzie, Dreger, Lebrun and starting to come on strong Elliot Friedman.
Quain,
ReplyDeleteAgree on Mirtle. Also McKenzie, usually Dreger. Not so sure about Lebrun or Barnes.
The rest are all infotainment more than information and analysis, and it's not really even that entertaining.
Hey folks, here is an email I sent to Damien Cox a few minutes ago:
ReplyDeleteMr Cox,
With articles as unintelligent as the one you wrote on the Oilers today, it is surprising to me you are able to maintain employment in the hockey industry.
While the contracts for Horcoff, Souray and Khabibulin are definitely bad contracts the Oilers are stuck with, the contracts for Gilbert, Hemsky, and Penner are the exact opposite. Please find me another 6'4 240 pound power forward scoring 32 goals and 63 points who is only 27 years old, in the prime of his career, making less money than Penner? The Oilers are minus 67 this season in goal differential and Penner is plus 8!
Also, please find me a game breaking, elite skill level forward with .92 points per game over the past five seasons making less money than Hemsky? By this point metric Hemsky is in the top 20 in the entire NHL, where the average player at that point rate earns an average of over 5.5 million per season, 20% more than Hemsky, who is still only 27 years old.
Both of these players represent excellent value at these prices and would be extremely easy to move, and in fact would be able to acquire high quality players in return.
The contract for Gilbert is neither good nor bad. He makes about what he should make. Since acquiring another legitimate top pairing defenceman in Ryan Whitney at the trade deadline to play with, he has 2 goals, 13 assists for 15 points and is plus 3 in 17 games, averaging 25 minutes per night on the worst team in the league. He is 27 years old, 6'3 210 pounds, an excellent skater who can play the power play and kill penalties. He struggled earlier this season playing with Souray, who clearly had not recovered from his concussion he suffered from Jarome Iginla's dirty hit in the second game of the season. In addition, his plus minus suffered all season from AHL level goaltending the Oilers have had the misfortune to endure. Again, I will bet at least 15 if not 20 teams in the NHL would be happy to take Gilbert off the Oilers' hands if they were stupid enough to trade him.
For you to lump Hemsky, Penner and Gilbert's contract with the other three admittedly bad contracts is typical eastern based media ignorance of the players in the west. I hope you have the brains and the guts to admit you are wrong on these three players and to write that fact in a column soon.
this is what he wrote back:
You people in edmonton are delusional! Rather amazing, but good luck with that.
I hope you all email him to give him crap for being so stupid
As large as the debate over Hall or Seguin is, we know it'll be one or the other (hopefully).
ReplyDeleteI'm more interested in what the Oilers do with the 31st overall pick. If Kirill Kabanov drops that low, and he could very well do just that, would you take a flyer on him? The absolutely blue sky scenario would be Brett Conolly but he seems top 15.
Ben:
ReplyDeleteNone of those guys had 100+ PIMS.
To put things in perspective..
There was only 1 draft eligible player in the entire CHL that had 40 goals combined with 100+ PIMS - Brendan Gallagher
If I'm betting on a small player this would be the guy.
HBomb:
It was intentional. Cox is just a Leafs lackey.
It's like Cox went out of his way to prove how unconnected/disconnected he really is. Brutal.
ReplyDeleteProfessional Troll - ignore him and he will go away.
You people in edmonton are delusional!
ReplyDeleteDid he really say "you people"? Did he really essentially diss all Edmontonians? Good thing we didn't write such a goddamned stupid, irresponsible and rude comment on this blog, or LT would have to close the thread.
Traktor: While I get what your trying to say about his style of play, I don't think the numbers you picked have much prognostic value. High PIM totals might mean he's more aggresive (or might just mean he's undisciplined), but that doesn't mean he's more effective.
ReplyDeleteI haven't done an exhaustive search, but the list of players to put up 40 goal/100 PIM in their draft year isn't exactly a murderer's row.
Josh Holden, Jamie Lundmark, Oleg Saprykin, Sheldon Keefe, Rico Fata, and the only real success Derek Roy are the names I've found so far. In fact, Lupul was only 5 minutes away from joining the list above too.
I think it does give some extra value to the player but I'm not going to give too much weight to Gallagher's high PIM total.
Anyways, the player I'll add to the discussion as being ranked lower than his numbers taken at face value would indicate is Greg McKegg from Erie in the OHL. He's 6'0" 190 and had a line 67 37-48-85 but was ranked only 66th by Central Scouting in NA. His team was laid to waste by Windsor in the 1st round but he eked out 3 points in the 4 game sweep. He also will be playing for Canada at the Under-18s so there will be additional info to be mined from that. Just a player to maybe keep an eye on.
Oilersfan, and others bitching about Cox:
ReplyDeleteDo you guys know how to write a proper complaint letter? If you really want something done, you contact the editor, not the writer.
Damien Cox is not going to care about hate mail. The editor is going to be concerned that he's putting out a misinformed and improperly sourced piece that has the potential to decrease the number of subscriptions purchased.
They're all about the money.
Also, George B:
The "red flags" about Hall are coming from an interview that Coming Down the Pipe (Guy Flaming and/or Dean Millard) did with Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet.
Flaming and Millard are the new type of MSM guys that I respect, because they go the extra mile to actually report good, and sometime edgy news.
kris,
ReplyDeleteHow do you know Ethan Moreau had an eye injury? How much did we debate Tambellini's public comments about whether or not Eberle would go to and stay in the AHL for the rest of the season? Go and check the source that put those comments in the public domain. How do you know Ethan Moreau has a sense of entitlement? Who pushed the debate on new arena issues? Who broke the story of Ryan Whitney's first foot injury (print media)? Or the possible need for a second surgery? Robin Brownlee ran with it but where did it start? Try going back and counting how many times Lowetide refers to information generated by the MSM.
I'll say it again we regurgitate and rehash information, that is, we analyze it to death. Great reading, great public service, but our life blood is information, nearly none of which we generate ourselves. Most of it comes, not from limited public sources (though there are exceptions particularly among statisticians), but from some form of media outlet and some sort of reporter.
Plus I see the distinction between the MSM and the blogosphere as more grey than you do. For example many good bloggers have a foot in both camps, David Staples for example. I am not picking on David, I think he brings something unique to the table. You could just as easily say Robin Brownlee or Dean or Guy. Some like JW are crossing over from amateur to professional status and deserve to but will that effect their writing?
Exactly how do you define MSM by the way? Are freelancers like Robin members of the dreaded MSM, how about Staples, when he blogs is he one of us, when he writes award winning crime stories is he one of them? The same question comes up in your comment that some how radio does not count as media or MSM? How do you figure that?
Lots of blogs are amazing and the work that goes into them is astounding. We need look no further than this blog for an example. However, we also know that much of what is posted is crap. Yet I don't see you saying we have to stop reading online sources because they are all crap. You seem to have a serious double standard.
I think relying on any one source is a way to make sure you get misled. Doesn't matter much whether or not the poor reporting is in a paper or online. It is still Cox Rot.
Speaking of which, the Star's editorial policy is that if it is anonymous you must have two sources. Even an idiot like Cox. No free passes for fools. Even then, even using wiggle words galore, the editors would prefer a box quote. That is somebody the public knows stating your position for you. Cox can't provide those sorts of quotes because he is an idiot who sources at the local bar.
I don't get how getting PIM is a +.
ReplyDeleteI mean god, you can be a good checker without taking stupid penalties all the time like Hartnell.
And when you weight 5''8, that's most probably hooking and slashing and such.
How do you know Ethan Moreau had an eye injury?
ReplyDeleteI saw his eye bleeding all over the ice. ???
How do you know Ethan Moreau has a sense of entitlement?
I have the ability to discern simple shapes and noises.
How much did we debate Tambellini's public comments about whether or not Eberle would go to and stay in the AHL for the rest of the season? Go and check the source that put those comments in the public domain.
Again, Tambellini makes comments about players as he sees fit. He could just as easily release information by giving statements to oilers.nhl.com, which is pretty much what happens now. You don't need to read any "journalists" stories, you just need to listen to Tambellini's and Quinn's statements. (These aren't really press conferences, because the people asking the questions can answer them or not and the journalists have no power to do anything: just ask Brownlee.)
Who pushed the debate on new arena issues?
Katz
Who broke the story of Ryan Whitney's first foot injury (print media)? Or the possible need for a second surgery? Robin Brownlee ran with it but where did it start?
I admit that this is one example of info that wouldn't have come to light without the report. Quite frankly, I could go without knowing it; if his surgery has serious consequences, the team will have to reveal it, press or no press. Brownlee did bring it to us early.
Is that it? Occasionally, MSM guys learn a bit about undisclosed injuries? (The whole story about Gagner's hip, Whitney's foot, Horcoff's shoulder, Khabi's back, etc. are not known to us, and all the "access" in the world has revealed very, very little. IMO.)
And the idea that bloggers just analyze the info that comes from the MSM is BS. Everything Gabe has taught us about underlying stats, for example, doesn't come from the media. MC79 knew that Khabi was a bad signing and that the goalie market was exceptional way before the MSM did. Dennis' scoring chance data has nothing to do with anything in the MSM. In fact, I'm willing to say, most of what I've learned about hockey in the last 2 years comes entirely from bloggers. Speeds and schitzo have taught me a tonne about the cap. Local MSM guys have revealed a few nagging injuries. That's it. And they've peddled a lot of BS, e.g. Gregor on the two caps, Brownlee on JDD, on and on and on.
Hey Kris,
ReplyDeleteWRT brownlee and whitney's feet..
It was actually a comment poster that brought up that point in the Oilersnation post for the lubo trade (iirc)..
Brownlee simply followed it up...
I dont know if this changes anything in the running dialogue.. I stopped reading the original post after "How do you know Ethan Moreau had an eye injury?"
In my experience 90% of the MSM reports come from the mouth of the coach, GM, Other GM, or whomever else posts their new conferences on the Oilers website. They just regurgitate the quotes.
ReplyDeletekris,
ReplyDeleteI am going to try to make this very simple. I never said we only analyze information from the MSM, just that it provides a disproportinate amount of the information we debate here. I specifically said that the statisticians rely on other sources. Just in passing the fact that the majority of the stats guys build on material from another source has epistemological consequences we should discuss some time.
I am guessing you really don't get how we are shaped by culture and media and believe that there is some arbitrary divide between MSM and us. The truth is that the MSM makes us and we make the MSM. The blogosphere makes us and we make the blogosphere. All media is a cultural artifact of man the creator and all media shapes us as participants in our common culture.
bookie,
Please feel free to prove that statement. Start by defining "in your experience." Can you be sure that your experience isn't shaped in important ways by the culture that surrounds you? How important, given your estimate is correct, is the other 10%, the part that isn't regurgitated? How does it shape what you think about hockey and choose to share here? Isn't it possible that the 10% more than compensates for the 90%.
Sorry for threadjacking this into such a boring direction.
ReplyDeletebookie,
ReplyDeletePlease feel free to prove that statement. Start by defining "in your experience." Can you be sure that your experience isn't shaped in important ways by the culture that surrounds you? How important, given your estimate is correct, is the other 10%, the part that isn't regurgitated? How does it shape what you think about hockey and choose to share here? Isn't it possible that the 10% more than compensates for the 90%.
Of course my experience is shaped by culture, if I were born in Southern Malawi, I could care less about hockey (though I might care a bit about football), speak che Chewa, and likely not be blogging right now.
However, the question is pretty irrelevant here. Are you studying for your first year soc test or something?
The other 10% is actually not very important at all (to me), neither is the 90%. I don't really look at the MSM, some of my views are shaped by what I see in the blogoshpere (some of which may come from the MSM), but most of my opinions come from watching the games and listening to management.
Anyway, I forget what point you are arguing now anyway - so good luck with it. I hope you win!
Actually, Bookie/Kris I was attempting to demonstrate that things aren't as simple as you two seem to think. If you read my other posts you'd know my recurring theme is that the analysis presented here is frequently flawed by an attmept to simplify and advocate a position rather than to elucidate and inform. Sadly, every time I go down this road, asking people to try seeing the shades of grey that make up the real world, somebody gets upset.
ReplyDeleteIn this case, we've seen lots of examples of MSM people (Bob McKenzie, David Staples, Robin Brownlee, Dean Millard, even Dan Barnes) who have useful things to say about hockey. Things we talk a lot about here. Clearly the MSM remains relevant and vital to this and other hockey blogs as a source of information and opinion (whether we agree with it or not).
You remain convinced that your view MSM bad - blogospehere good is correct and that none of the debate here is drawn from or informed by the MSM. I respect that. I just think you believe it because it is the mnantra of your sub-culture not because of direct experience or a true examination of the evidence. I also think the belief, to the extent it reduces your access to information that disagrees with your own position, makes you poorer.
Back on topic...I have flipped. Seguin for the Win.
ReplyDeletelinnaeus, for all the access the MSM has, they sure don't use it very well.
ReplyDeleteFor instance, every member of the Edmonton Sports MSM bought the "Stanley Cup Winning" goalie line. Not a single one questioned it. Not a single one brought up the issue about the fact that the cup win was 5 years prior. Or how about the disturbing injury history are relatively poor track record performance wise he had the previous 4 years.
Not a single damn one of them did that.
Now that we've found out about his serious back problems who in the MSM have gone and seen if the Oilers actually peformed due dilligence when they signed him.
Again, the answer is not a single damn one.
For all the access they have, they sure don't provide a heck of a lot of information. It's great that Brownlee brought up the story about Whitney's foot... but the problem was he completely blew it out of proportion and turned a non-entity into a full-blown pannic attack.
Hey I get it... these guys are scared about getting their meal ticket pulled. I'd be reluctant to ruffle the wrong feathers too if it meant my job was in jeopardy. But that doesn't change the fact that the info they do provide is, on the whole, low octane.
dawgbone has it right. I want someone in the MSM to Larry Brooks and ask the hard questions...and then have Quinn ask them if they have ever been in a fight. (Metaphorically though)
ReplyDeleteAt least someone that will take them to task and get some accountability. Maybe Katz hired Stauffer to ensure the only guy in the MSM that had real bite was now on the payroll.
I don't want a Larry Brooks... asking the tough questions looses it's luster if you follbow it up by being an idiot.
ReplyDeleteHow about a guy who goes around and researches things before writing them up (looking at you Terry Jones and the $7mil cap hit). How about a guy who takes some of the ideas floating around and rolls with them?
It shouldn't take the average reader less than 5 minutes to find all the factual flaws in your statements. I don't expect these guys to tout the statistical things the bloggers do, but can we at the very get someone who can routinely write a piece without glaring errors?
Why is it half the bloggers and readers knew about the Brule waiver issue while the MSM had no clue? There is no reason why your guys who post casually on a message board should have significantly higher CBA knowledge than guys reporting the issues.
English language isn't my main language, however I could understand it while using google translator. Superb publish, have them coming! Thanks a lot!
ReplyDelete