However, it looks like the kid is ready to push for an NHL job and losing a season of eligibility (he'll be 19 at TC) is a small price to pay in order to have your best prospect signed and challenging for a big league job. Desjardins equivalencies suggest he's ready.
It may mean the Oilers break camp with an all-star rookie cast (Hall, MPS, Eberle, Omark, others) or it may make it easier to send out Tyler Seguin should they choose him and decide another year of junior is the better way. MPS is playing in a WC primer this week and from all reports looks like the real thing. It's time to get his name on a contract and see what he can do. Finding the level he's going to play at in the fall will take care of itself, but arguing the Oilers have 4 better LW's than this guy is impossible.
losing a season of eligibility (he'll be 19 at TC) is a small price to pay in order to have your best prospect signed and challenging for a big league job.
ReplyDeleteI disagree: we went down that road once before, and now Sam Gagner's set to be a UFA at 25. You wouldn't trade his first two NHL seasons for the rights to his 25 and 26-year old seasons at this point?
MPS, unlike Gagner, is AHL-eligible at 19, though, right? I guess that mitigates the harm of signing him.
What if we got screwed Blake Wheeler style?
ReplyDeleteIf we wait for next year, there's no point for him to sign.
Plus if he isn't signed he has the option of re-entering the draft, no?
ReplyDeleteLT: Wouldn't that only restrain him again?
ReplyDeleteI think if HE shows interest to sign, but a deal doesn't get done, he can go UFA.
And if he just doesn't show signs he goes to the draft.
But it's all sketchy. Someone can come in and clear it upé
I'm not all together up on the rules, but Wheeler could become a UFA by virtue of it having been four years since he was drafted, I think (that may also be an NCAA thing?). There's no hurry with MPS on that front.
ReplyDeleteI might be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but I remember reading something about Euro's re-entering the draft at 20 under the new cba.
ReplyDeleteNo?
If there is a transfer agreement in place (which I think is true for the SEL), then I think he can re-enter the draft after three years. Nobody knew what it meant for Russian players, but apparently you just keep retaining their rights since no transfer agreement exists.
ReplyDeleteWheeler's case was specific to NCAA players and, I believe, also specific to those drafted under the previous CBA.
Just sign him goodness gracious do we need another version of Riley(education is so much more important than reality) Nash, hemming and hawing like another Lindros?
ReplyDeleteWe get it, you hate the ginger.
ReplyDeleteI just can't stand preciousness coming from people who are handed every opportunity to succeed, then piss it all away with their overblown sense of entitlement.
ReplyDeleteNash played in a second rate BC junior league, then a second rate ivy league, and has proven zilch. it's a terrible pick. The guy has bust written all over him, imo.
Give me thickoes who want to play the game every time. like Taylor Hall, for example, lol. That Seguin guy looks altogether too intelligent for my liking.
FPB:
ReplyDeleteI believe the rule for that is that if the Oilers fail to make a bonafide offer he goes UFA and Edmonton gets the 10th pick in the second round. If the Oilers make a bonafide offer, then he can sign or reenter the draft. That's off a bit of scattered memory, and I don't know what a "bonafide offer" would actually mean, but it seems to me it's something like that.
My precious Hunter: surely you meant "precociousness".
ReplyDelete"Sense of entitlement" is becoming rather hackneyed. Nash is entitled to make his own decisions and to choose his path in life. If that does not coincide with what the Oilers thought they were getting then that is on them for not having done their due diligence before choosing him. The Oilers are not entitled to "sense" they own Nash.
In my view they made a bad choice, but what else is new?
Would we rather watch Eberle, MPS, and Hall, or Pouliot, Stone, Potulny, or Taylor Pyatt, Robert Lang, and Radim Vrbata?
ReplyDeleteWhich one would have more benefits of being in the NHL?
I understand the need not to rush, but these kids are the best prospects to come along in a good, long time. I think they are ready to play, and they are certainly a helluva lot better than what we have.
MattM:
ReplyDeleteYou only get the compensatory pick if the player rejects a bonafide offer.
They had to make an exception for NYR recently with Cherapnov because he couldn't, for obvious reasons, decline their offer.
Riley Nash will be the next Mikhnov in Oiler lore.
ReplyDeleteIf only Nash were a slave, that would solve everything.
ReplyDeleteI was always a fan of the reserve clause.
ReplyDeleteI'd feel a lot better if we just signed him.
ReplyDelete@LT.
ReplyDelete"Finding the level he's going to play at in the fall will take care of itself, but arguing the Oilers have 4 better LW's than this guy is impossible."
That is the problem LT, not the solution.
The Oilers have been employing that thinking for the better part of 20 years and the results are there to see.
On the Bench: Actually, the Oilers have rarely elevated teenagers. In the last decade or so, the club added Hemsky at 19 because they weren't sure about the quality of his junior coach (or maybe there were sure) and Gagner arrived at exactly the right time to sell hope.
ReplyDeleteMPS has been playing in a man's league for awhile and there's quite a bit of history to support his at least being able to challenge for a big league job.
Sign him, bring him over and if he can't get it done then it is back to the SEL.
''A "Bona Fide Offer" is an offer of an SPC which is for a period
ReplyDeletecorresponding to the Player's age as required under Section 9.1(b) of this Agreement, is
to commence at the start of the next League Year, offers at least the Minimum Paragraph
1 Salary as set forth in Section 11.12 of this Agreement for each League Year covered by
such offer and remains open to the Player for at least thirty (30) days after receipt of the
offer by the Player. A Bona Fide Offer may be conditioned upon acceptance by the
Player within thirty (30) days and carries no right to salary arbitration.''
Direct definition of ''Bona Fide Offer'' from the CBA.
The idea you (LT) keep quoting, talking about the proper way to develop prospects (I believe from Earl Weever), is that a young player should first dominate at his current level before going on to the next level.
ReplyDeleteThe only question is how best to develop this player for the long-term. If Edmonton is the best development path, so be it; if not, then this debate is improperly framed.
MPS has not dominated in Sweden yet, thus it is irrelevant whether or not the Oilers have 4 LWs who are better than he is.
Weaver would elevate players when they were ready, but wouldn't put them in a position to fail (middle relief for pitchers, platoons for fielders and DH).
ReplyDeleteMPS played at a high level (SEL) and scored well in that league (3rd on his team) and his plus minus (tied for 2nd on his team) implies he's doing good things overall.
Never forget that a kid that age usually is far away in TC, from what he was the year before.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGagner arrived at exactly the right time to sell hope.
ReplyDeleteWhile that's true, here is the other centers who played for the Oilers that year.
Horcoff 53 games - season ending injury at the all star game of all things
Stoll 81 games
Reasoner 82 games
Brodziak 80 games
Fellow Rookie Cogliano 82 games
There was no rationale for 89 to make the team.
If they bring over MPS, they better sign another LW who is an actual NHL player, or else he's going to get slotted too high up the depth chart and might struggle, which Earl Weaver would frown at.
OTC put JFFJ on the heavy lifting line for christsake, I don't trust him to give MPS the sheltering he needs because it will become clear he's his 2nd best option at LW right away.
Who knows, MPS might thrive right away, but why gamble a 19 year old high end prospect's mental state on it?
ReplyDeleteI don't trust OTC to do the right thing to bring him over this year.
Peter: I don't think the situation is comparable, because the Oilers need to sign MPS by June 1, 2011 or they lose his rights.
ReplyDeleteIf, after they sign him, they send him back to the AHL or SEL, my understanding is that his ELC slides a year. The ELC would irrevocably kick in for the 11/12 seasaon, as Paajarvi would be considered to be 20. However, if he isn't signed by June 1st before the 2011/12 season his rights are lost anyways, so it's still better to sign him than let him re-enter the draft.
Given my understanding, there's no reason to not sign him now, but my understanding could be incorrect, especially with respect to what happens if he heads back to the SEL next season.
I remember saying "Oh great, another guy we'll have to wait around forever to see" when we drafted Brother Magnus, so I won't be surprised at all when he stays in Sweden. It would be nice to see him come try to make it at least!
ReplyDelete...
Think Moose would have re-signed Smytty?
Sign him, bring him to camp, then send him back to the SEL and as far away from OTC as possible.
ReplyDelete@ LT
ReplyDeleteCan't get what done?
Your NHLE show he won't be much in the NHL in his first season so unless you're desperate to sell tickets why bother?
Patience.
On the Bench: The key is the contract. Sending him back to the SEL isn't a big deal if he comes to camp and isn't ready but he's signed, sealed and delivered at that point.
ReplyDeleteMPS has not dominated in Sweden yet
ReplyDeleteGo to elite prospects look up every year of u19 players season points/GM production.
Care to guess how many players were better and who they were.
The right thing to do seems to actually evaluate him at TC. Not with any prejudice. Then use common sense to make a decision.
ReplyDeleteKopitar the year after he was drafted:
ReplyDeleteSEL 47 8 12 20 28
Magnus the year after he was drafted:
SEL 49 12 17 29 6
Kopitar the following year:
NHL 72 20 41 61 24
Magnus: ??
Get him inked. End of story.
To make it even more of a no-brainer Magnus has said recently that he is open to playing in the AHL if that's what Edmonton wants. He mentioned that Erik Karlsson is a player path he wouldn't mind following.
Thanks FPB.
ReplyDelete@ LT.
ReplyDeleteAgree the contract is a big deal and I'm not surprised the Tweedles haven't go it done already.
The real is thought that why will predicate his signing on whether or not he is ready to be an NHL player.
These aren't smart people.
fbp - I LOL'd when I heard you say the term "use common sense to make a decision" on an Oiler blog.
ReplyDeleteOn the Bench: Agreed.
ReplyDelete"MPS has not dominated in Sweden yet
ReplyDeleteGo to elite prospects look up every year of u19 players season points/GM production.
Care to guess how many players were better and who they were."
Rickibear: I'm well aware of his performance relative to others his age in the SEL. But comparing him to young, lesser prospects isn't very useful when talking about NHL readiness. I think if he came over he'd pop in 12-15 goals and 30-some points, and we'd say, pretty nice season from a 19 year old. But how about instead we let him have a monster year in the SEL, and let him come in next year when he's more prepared and he can score 20 goals, help the team more, and not have any of us concerned about bringing him in too early and hurting him in the long-run.
Speeds: by all means, sign him now, I just don't want him in an Oilers jersey full time until fall 2011.
How many prospects have the Detroit Red Wings ruined by keeping them out of the NHL for too long? Filppula? Kronwall? Howard? Brendan Smith? (Currently doing great in his 3rd year of college; drafted AFTER Riley Nash)
ReplyDeleteHow many prospects have Columbus, Florida, and Edmonton hurt in recent years by rushing them to the NHL? I think we'd be a lot better off if Cogliano had played a full year in the AHL, and Gagner at least 1 more year in junior. My biggest hope for this year is that MPS stays in Sweden, Eberle plays minimum half a year in the AHL, and Seguin spends the whole year in junior. (Though Hall would probably be NHL ready since he's a late '91 and has played 3 years of junior already).
Peter:
ReplyDeleteIt's tough to tell because the developmental quality seems to be quite different. If it is true that EDM has been worse at developing AHL prospects than DET, maybe EDM was better off to be bringing their top prospects straight to the NHL if they would have just stagnated in their development system anyways?
That said, it's interesting that Detroit stuck Tatar in the AHL at 18 this year. One could make some sort of argument that's "rushing" the prospect given the traditional handling of late 2nd round picks, and this is a team that has the reputation of moving players as slowly as anyone.
One of the nice things about college is that you get to spend four years in a Hunter-free zone. Reality sucks by comparison.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure he's rushing to join the NHL where he can be massively concussed from behind by some cheap shot artist while busting his hump to salve Hunter's tenuous masculinity. The difference with Lindros is that he wanted this job, so it made it hard to understand what he was moaning about.
What a terrible thing to have lost one's mind. Or not to have a mind at all.
My two cents:
ReplyDeleteIf they don't sign MPS its clearly a mistake. Why not? He apparently WANTS to sign and start in OK City if he has to... What's the problem here? Not enough drama? Clearly there is real value in seeing him in TC, and not deciding his 'readiness' from overseas.
As for Eberle... better than a point a game in 20+ games in the AHL gets you a VERY serious look at training camp and rightly so. Anything short of that is ludicrous. If he plays better than 50 games (total) in the AHL, I'll be shocked.
And then there's Nash. Those of you thinking he is somehow selfish for finishing his degree at Cornell should really have your heads examined. Good for him - intelligent kid. If he doesn't see himself as an Oiler prospect or the Oilers have decided his fate already (why I have no idea), then they will trade him. He should gets lots of interest given his good stats and high hockey IQ. Doesn't seem like a huge problem.
And last but not least - the number one pick... If they take Seguin and send him back to junior that would be something... We want THIS kid, but not right now. Whatever... the number one pick goes straight into the Oilers opening day lineup - whether its Hall or Seguin.
Stauffer has alluded that the reason Nash won't sign right now is that he wants a guaranteed spot on the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteIf that is true I can see their hesitation.
No player is bigger than the team or the process....even in dysfunctional Oiler land.
Sorry Hunter but your argument centers around the idea that the only important thing in life is earning a paycheck. If Nash truly wants to return to college to finish off his degree then all the power to him. If he won't sign because he wants a guarenteed spot and doesn't want to pay his dues in the minors than that is a different story all together.
ReplyDeleteI do not see any reason not to sign MPS ASAP.
ReplyDeleteI do not see any reason to put any of MPS, Eberle and Hall/Seguin on the big club next year. When was the last time the first overall pick did not make the team the next season? Stefan?
Name one prospect whose development was actually harmed by spending too long in the minors. There really is no downside to holding them back.
Omark should make the big club and get as many cherry minutes as possible so we can get Glencross back from the Flames for him before the end of next season. Superfluous smurf, but potentially valuable in a trade.
As for young Mr. Nash, I think he is handling his own development fine by not letting the Oil get their hands on him. Looks to me like he is holding himself back to have a decent career elsewhere. Someone pointed out that there was another player in a similar situation that ended up playing for a team (Phoenix) other than the one that drafted him in the season after his 4 years of college before having to re-enter the draft. Nash seems to be handling his own career at least as well as the Oilers would have done. Nash seems to be intent on not being an Oiler 'project'. I have no way of knowing if that is exclusive to Edmonton or he would have a similar view if he were a Red Wing pick. If Nash was my kid, I would be pretty cautious about taking this group of clowns' advice regarding his career.
anonymous = idiot.
ReplyDeleteActually, Anonymous is right (that you're insane), but for the wrong reason.
Nash has a chance to earn a fortune, but instead he prefers going to school? That's pathological entitlement territory, reserved for the either the smartest or stupidest people. And from the expression in Nash's eyes, I'd bet on the latter.
The NHL is not a guarantee. An Ivy League degree is a hell of an insurance policy against a career spent bouncing around the minors wondering what might have been. If what Woodguy says is true, and Nash wants a guaranteed spot on the Oilers -- and thus a guaranteed high-six-figure salary -- if he's to leave school early, that's actually the smartest move he can make: why ditch on the last year of your degree and ride buses around the northeastern US, just to placate some old-fashioned hockey men? I'm sure he'd be happy to "pay his dues" if need be once he's done school, degree in hand, but I think it's perfectly rational and not at all "entitled" to wait until then to do so.
But what do I know? I'm just an entitled college kid finishing up his second B.Sc. and his second first-author paper in a scientific publication instead of playing the lottery every week.
With the issue of losing MPS if he doesn't sign, then sign him.
ReplyDeleteThen he can play in Sweden or Okla City, if that's what he prefers. No need to rush him to NHL, unless he shows himself ready by strong play at the World Tournament. That would be an indication he's more ready for NHL than I had hoped back in mid-winter. But maybe he's made one of those developmental leaps, as MacT called them.
Obviously none of you Nash apologists have anything resembling talent, or else you might understand the dynamics of actually developing it, as opposed to letting it rot. The reality is, Nash hasn't even been tested at a very high level, yet managed to get drafted not in the 7th, but the 1st round of the best hockey league in the world.
ReplyDeleteThousands upon thousands of people attend ivy league colleges, which by itself renders them statistically irrelevant when compared to playing NHL level hockey. But of course, you would prefer to attack me, preferably in a group, because everyday slobs are basically nothing more than cowards.
The Oilers management has stunk to high heaven for the past how many years i can't even be bothered to count, and for that reason Nash may well have a point. But when He's 45 years old, slaving away for some Manhattan corporation and riding the commuter train to pay off his mortgage, something tells me he's going to regret throwing away his big chance to play NHL hockey.
hunter
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers are Nash's only option today. They are not his only chance. If he's good enough, he'll make it. Based on the Oilers' current situation, its a pretty safe bet that other teams will be all over the Oilers' discards like the fat kid on the Smartie. Phoenix supposedly was going to select him with the pick we swapped to them to move up to get him. Unfortunately for us fans, the kid is both smarter and more patient than the Oilers' brass.
Obviously none of you Nash apologists have anything resembling talent, or else you might understand the dynamics of actually developing it, as opposed to letting it rot.
ReplyDeleteHunter - If you are going to boast that your opinion should be respected because you are simply awesome, then you will have to come out of the closet and identify yourself so that we can give you all of the respect you derserve.
At what level of national sports have you competed at?
How many millions does your company rake in each year?
Which global leader are you (is that you Kharzi?)
etc...
Otherwise you will have to let your words and arguments demonstrate your sheer awesomeness and genius to us. At this point, they are lacking.
Name one prospect whose development was actually harmed by spending too long in the minors.
ReplyDeleteRob Schremp?
Obviously none of you Nash apologists have anything resembling talent, or else you might understand the dynamics of actually developing it, as opposed to letting it rot.
ReplyDeleteI understand perfectly the dynamics of developing talent. This kid would rather ensure his future, regardless of how his hockey career turns out, than take a questionably better road to developing his hockey talent and possibly be left with half an education and no elite hockey prospects anyway. I can't say that I blame him. Someone's got to look out for these kids' future in case it doesn't work out -- which is the most likely outcome, given that there are only 700ish NHL jobs, of which less than a hundred may be up for grabs by the several thousand NHL hopefuls out there in junior, college, and North American and European pro -- and if it's not the NHL team, it might as well be the kids themselves.
You know, I heard the Detroit GM saying something like, err on the side of caution with prospects. Better to leave them in the oven too long than take them out prematurely. Give him one more year in the SEL and then he will be ready, no harm done. Not like it will set him back.
ReplyDeleteThis kid would rather ensure his future, regardless of how his hockey career turns out, than take a questionably better road to developing his hockey talent and possibly be left with half an education and no elite hockey prospects anyway.
ReplyDeleteToo be fair, its not as though courses expire. Nash could have probably pursued pro hockey for a few years and then decided to go back to school if things didn't work out. The debate here suggests as though through taking the hockey route he was abandoning ever getting a degree.
This is true, but it's also a lot harder to go back to school once you've been out for a few years, especially when it's the last year of a program you haven't thought about in, say, five years because you've been pursuing a hockey career in that time.
ReplyDeleteBruce
ReplyDeleteToo many problems in Schremp's case to say it was the extended stay in the minors.
In his defense, Schremp isn't the only apprentice that did not make it to journeyman in this organization.
It's weird how in every thread that spirals into the never-ending Riley Nash debate, the point is made that he is in Cornell for the Ivy League degree...while that may be A reason, it certainly wasn't THE reason he chose that road.
ReplyDeleteIn every article and interview I've come across where he's been asked about his reasons for picking Cornell, without fail the top two reasons were:
1) To play with his brother.
2) He thought they had a strong hockey program.
The "Ivy League" education in Agriculture and Life Sciences has always lagged behind these two, when he even bothers to mention it at all.
If he's starting to extoll its virtues now, I can only surmise it's because with his brother gone and his choice of hockey programs appearing to be questionable at best with how he seems to have had his rookie year for three consecutive years now, what else does he have left, at least for public consumption anyway, to explain why he's on his way to heading back to Cornell for his senior year.
Of course, the more likely reason is that he simply wants to move on to a different organization, for wahtever reason. He wouldn't be the first, and he won't be the last.
NHL teams hold the rights to drafted European players indefinately. Different rules for different leagues. 3 years for major-junior. 4, I believe for NCAA. Wierd stuff, but thats the CBA.
ReplyDeleteToo many problems in Schremp's case to say it was the extended stay in the minors.
ReplyDeleteIn his defense, Schremp isn't the only apprentice that did not make it to journeyman in this organization.
I think he was being sarcastic. See: every Rob Schremp supporter ever.
NHL teams hold the rights to drafted European players indefinately.
I'm pretty sure that's no longer true -- I think they have two or three years to get them signed -- but someone else can provide more specifics.
I wasn't sure Bruce was joking and did not want to be rude and ignore him in case he was serious.
ReplyDelete