This is not a completely accurate account of draft quality by season. At times in their history the Oilers have been so deep that a quality player couldn't get into 40 games a season. At other times, teenagers have played on the 1line because there were no alternatives. However, it is fun to see the recent draft seasons compared to the glory years. The idea here is to use "Games Played" as a weight and then stop the draft 5 seasons out to see how many actual NHL players have developed from one draft summer.
- 1980-1,056 (Paul Coffey-394, Jari Kurri-363, Walt Poddubny-157, Andy Moog-142). One of the very best drafts of all time, possibly #1. Massive impact on the franchise.
- 1979-1,052 (Kevin Lowe-383, Mark Messier-375, Glenn Anderson-290, Mike Toal-3, Blair Barnes-1). This is one of the draft seasons that might be better than 1980. Between the two (and a couple of lesser drafts that followed) the Oilers lapped the field at the entry draft and built a dynasty.
- 1993-602 (Jason Arnott-321, Miro Satan-217, Ilya Byakin-57, Alex Kerch-5, Nick Stajduhar-2). This draft came at a very low point for the organization (similar to the situation they're in now). Arnott was a high pick who delivered, but Fraser should also get credit for finding Satan. A strong and often overlooked Oilers draft.
- 2003-557 (Kyle Brodziak-175, Zack Stortini-147, Marc Pouliot-141, JF Jacques-60; Mathieu Roy-30, Troy Bodie-4). The 2003 and 2004 drafts benefit from having the lockout season. Same number of available at-bats but one more year of development than the others. No outstanding talent but several role players.
- 2001-471 (Ales Hemsky-275, Jussi Markkanen-128, Ales Pisa-53, Kari Haakana-13, Doug Lynch-2). The first Prendergast draft was probably his best one because of Hemsky alone. We'll have to wait on the Gagner draft just to make sure. Lynch's injury likely had a major impact on the value of this draft class.
- 1996-466 (Tom Poti-230, Boyd Devereaux-230, Matthieu Descoteaux-5, Chris Hajt-1). Devereaux was a very high pick who didn't have the kind of offensive pedigree associated with lottery picks. He was a solid role player before that Dallas Drake hit and recovered his career a little later on. Poti had some exceptional skills and a lot of chaos, but he's still playing in the NHL and would have to be regarded as a quality pick.
- 1981-440 (Grant Fuhr-211, Gord Sherven-84, Marc Habscheid-80, Steve Smith-57, Todd Strueby-5, Paul Houck-3). This was a nice draft, Fuhr came very quickly to the show and Habscheid looked for a time like he might be something. Goalies get nicked a little when we measure them by GP, this draft probably deserves to be in the top 5.
- 2002-440 (Jarret Stoll-286, Matt Greene-151, Mikko Luoma-3). A little misleading in that Stoll was a draft re-entry and technically belongs to the 2000 group. Greene and Stoll have turned into quality NHL players, and this draft (despite the Niinimaki miss) has to be considered a success.
- 1994-439 (Ryan Smyth-269, Mike Watt-89, Jason Bonsignore-79, Ladislav Benysek-2). I'll always be glad they drafted Smyth, he was a beauty player for the Oilers. The Bonsignore pick is the biggest and most devastating miss in the team's history. One of the reasons we don't remember Fraser fondly is the number of high picks that fizzled, something Prendergast never had an opportunity to do (his only top 6 pick was Gagner).
- 1989-414 (Anatoli Semenov-240, Josef Beranek-146, Peter White-26, Darcy Martini-2). You'd like a little more from a draft, but it came when they were winning every season and two useful players isn't a bad return.
- 1991-406 (Martin Rucinsky-241, David Oliver-124, Tyler Wright-41). This is the final of the group I would give passing grades. Rucinsky and Wright had nice careers.
- 1999-361 (Mike Comrie-241, Alexei Semenov-92, Jani Rita-15, Tony Salmelainen-13). I really thought this draft was going to be outstanding. Fizzled. Comrie saved it somewhat and this isn't really about what we all thought but lordy Jani Rita looked like a player.
- 1982-345 (Jaroslav Pouzar-186, Raimo Summanen-142, Steve Graves-14, Jim Playfair-2, Dean Clark-1). Pouzar had a nice career and the Oilers thought Summanen would be 99's left-winger, but this draft fell short of acceptable.
- 2005-339 (Andrew Cogliano-246, Danny Syvret-49, Taylor Chorney-44). This might end up being known as the "well he looked like a hockey player" draft with Cogliano having one year's experience three times and Chorney a saloon door on the blue. I do believe that Cogliano is a smart kid and will figure it out, but the 2005 draft five years on does not get a passing grade.
- 1983-322 (Esa Tikkanen-191, Jeff Beukeboom-117, John Miner-14). I think this one gets a passing grade as well, the 5-year measurement punishes this draft because the club had improved. Two solid NHL players, and in the case of Tikkanen a very unique talent.
- 1992-286 (Kirk Maltby-236, Ralph Intranuovo-22, Joaquin Gage-18, Joe Hulbig-6, Marko Tuomainen-4). This came at a time when the club really needed to add solid building blocks for the future, but it fell well short.
- 1987-235 (Geoff Smith-207, Peter Eriksson-20, Igor Vyazmikin-4, Shaun Van Allen-2, Tomas Srsen-2). Van Allen ended up having a career, but he was a late breaker.
- 1998-229 (Shawn Horcoff-188, Alex Henry-41). Another draft that looks less effective because of the 5-year rule. Horcoff most certainly helped the Oilers during the 00's but the club was shooting blanks in the first round.
- 2007-227 (Sam Gagner 223, Alex Plante-4). This draft has two more seasons to go before reaching the 5-season limit and has a chance to be both a top 10 all-time draft and deliver some exceptional quality after Gagner. Plante has already had a cup of coffee, with Omark and Nash to come. No passing grade yet, but tracking well.
- 1995-213 (Georges Laraque-126, Steve Kelly-86, Mike Minard-1). Kelly was a painful miss but he was in fact highly rated that summer. Guy Flaming has written some amazing articles over the years about the Kelly miss, and every Oiler scout stands by the decision and admits they liked him better. Doesn't change anything, but there must have been something there.
- 1984-186 (Todd Ewen-121, Emanuel Viveiros-29, Selmar Odelein-18, Simon Wheeldon-11, Daryl Reaugh-7). Odelein's injury had a lot to do with this draft and its lack of success.
- 1985-164 (Kelly Buchberger-140, Scott Metcalfe-19, Mike Ware-5). Buchberger was a nice late round pickup but Fraser was choogling during these drafts.
- 2000-153 (Matt Lombardi-134, Brad Winchester-19). It actually turned out pretty well for Fraser. Lombardi emerged as a true NHL talent and Winchester a role player. It took awhile, and of course Lombardi is the Stoll mirror.
- 2004-143 (Liam Reddox-56, Rob Schremp-51, Devan Dubnyk-19, Bryan Young-17). This draft is an extreme disappointment, although Dubnyk can still save it and Schremp looks like he might have a career. However, unlike the 2003 draft which produced useful role players this one was pure thud. Like Rita, Schremp was a guy most of us thought would be a player but the TOI totals were the part of the equation we weren't privy to and that was a big part of it all.
- 1988-63 (Shjon Podein-40, Francois Leroux-11, Len Barrie-9, Trevor Sim-3). Len Barrie got famous.
- 2006-31 (Theo Peckham-31). This is actually a pretty cool draft. Peckham is the only NHL player so far, but Petry should get some time soon and considering the team didn't have a first round pick the draft would be very successful if these two turn out. This draft is at the 4 year mark, so won't get a passing grade.
- 1986-31 (Ron Shudra-10, Dan Currie-5, David Haas-5, Jim Ennis-5, Kim Issel-4, Mike Greenlay-2). Mur-diddly-urdler's row.
- 1997-16 (Michel Riesen-12, Jason Chimera-4). Chimera ended up having a career, but developed slowly.
- 2008-1 (Johan Motin-1). This draft is just getting started, with Eberle the marquee player but Hartikainen also part of the group.
- 1990-0. Thanks for coming. Fraser should have been fired, but the Oilers won the Stanley (again) and honestly not many people were paying attention.
- 2009-0. This draft has burned one year with no GP. I think it has a chance to be a monster, Stu's first really big draft. The two Swedes played SEL hockey and flourished this past season, and don't look now but Olivier Roy might be a player.
- Impact drafts: 1979, 1980
- Quality drafts: 1993, 2003, 2001
- Passing grades: 1996, 1981, 2002, 1994, 1989, 1991, 1983
- Not quite good enough: 1999, 1982, 2005, 1992
- Fail: 1987, 1998, 2007*, 1995, 1984, 1985, 2000, 2004
- Epic fail: 1988, 2006*, 1986, 1997, 2008*, 2009*
- WTF? 1990
Appreciate the effort LT, that's looks like it took a bit squinting to compile.
ReplyDeleteIf you combine the players the picked up in both the 79 and 80 drafts, its a ludicrous amount of talent. Those two years set the franchise for 10 years.
I really hope Stu survives a purge if there is one, he's a beauty too.
Hate to go OT in the first post, but Barnes has an interesting article up today.
Here's one quote that will warm a lot of Lowetidian hearts:
And if goalie Nikolai Khabibulin shows up in camp healthy, the Oilers will have to trade Jeff Deslauriers or risk losing him on waivers, since they see more upside in Devan Dubnyk.
He also states about thecaptain:
Captain Ethan Moreau made himself a more attractive asset for the Oilers to deal by playing well down the stretch, but if there are no suitors, rest assured the Oilers will buy him out of the final year of his deal. He is obviously unsure of his status with the team.
Sounds like Barnes has the goods on a few issues.
Here's one question I'd really like someone to ask Tambellini:
"If the franchise is in such a good awful mess that you see a 5 year rebuild AFTER missing the playoffs for 4 years, why do you still directly report to the guy who orchestrated this mess?"
Very interesting article in the Urinal today by Dan Barnes. He says that Lowe's attempts to land the big fish were not his idea - "he was only doing as instructed" by Katz.
ReplyDeleteNow that they have finished 30th it has "presented ... great clarity" to "everyone".
They have decided to go a totally different way in philosophy. "They will not dream big; they will take care of the smallest details. They will not chase plum free agents; they will pluck lower hanging fruit to fill specific needs for short periods of time...they will groom their own prospects through the creation of a stepped up player development department. They will not throw a single dart in the entry draft..."
I couldn't have asked for better news from my Oilers on this beautiful Saturday morning.
"Fraser was choogling during these drafts."
ReplyDeleteYou learn new words all the time on this site. But I don't know how useful this approach to ranking drafts is. I mean if the team doesn't find an above average (excellent but maybe not elite) player can we really call the draft an success? For example 1982 and 2005 have better marks then 1983, but Esa is easily the best player in all of these drafts But in the overall section, you address this: I don't get why?.
While I understand why games played is important, I think that the ability to get an impact player should be the defining feature of considering if the draft is a success.
BCB: Yeah, I completely understand your point and it certainly comes into view when the 2003 draft is wider in range but lacks the 2001 draft marquee player (Hemsky).
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I think it is an interesting exercise in that 5 years after the draft you have a very good idea about what you're getting overall.
The Tikkanen's and Hemsky's are players we can value just by reading their names, but the value in a 2003 draft (several useful role players) is perhaps less obvious.
That's why I do it each season, but do agree with you that it is more of a "weight" measurement than a specific evaluation of each player.
--
Interesting items in the fishwrap, thanks Woodguy and Ducey. I'm thrilled about the Dubnyk news, but suspect Lowe is wagging the dog a little. Buddy never seems to make a misstep if you listen to him.
2007 could be elevated to quality draft by Sam Gagner alone. I expect he improves again next year, and be worth his weight in gold.
ReplyDeleteIf he improved on this very bad team, you have to wonder what he might do with an acceptable one. (Minus the injury and the fact Quinn put him on the 4th line at the beginning).
I'm not sure how 2003 can be labeled "quality". I guess in the sense of just games played, but considering what was left on the table, it has lead to the unmitigated disaster of a team we see before us.
ReplyDeleteThe 2003 draft was hella deep, its too bad the Oilers couldn't take advantage of it.
I don't know how much we can complain about the Bonsignore pick considering the 1994 draft was maybe the worst of all time. Looking through the 11 rounds there were only about 10 or so really good NHL players taken, and a few of those were goalies like Thomas and Anderson who didn't pan out for more than a decade.
ReplyDeleteSmyth and Jovo were the only all-star calibre players in the first round, and the Oil got one of them. That's actually a pretty great performance, isn't it? Can we really look back and say they should have taken Alfredsson 4th overall when he was a 6th rounder?
Danger Man: Well, I would argue that this little study suggests the Oilers did indeed benefit from the 2003 draft. Not at a level that other teams did, but comparing the drafts historically after 5 seasons they got some quality.
ReplyDeleteI know Pouliot, Brodziak and Stortini aren't worled beaters but they did in fact make it to the NHL and spend some seasons as regulars. Remember, we're "weighting" each draft by GP in order to get an idea about how much it benefits the team overall. There's no argument here in terms of quality, but that isn't what we're measuring here.
We're measuring roster spots, basically.
Interesting you speak of weighting LT - to make this a fair comparison, wouldn't it make sense to look at a ratio of games played to number of players drafted for each year?
ReplyDeleteJust a suggestion.
HBomb: Yeah, especially with those old timey drafts that went very deep. Then we get into weighting the draft by level (lottery, 7-15, 16-30, etc) but it is a good point.
ReplyDeleteI saw that Roy was playing in Springfield at the end of the year. 3 games. Did he sign a contract?
ReplyDelete"If the franchise is in such a good awful mess that you see a 5 year rebuild AFTER missing the playoffs for 4 years, why do you still directly report to the guy who orchestrated this mess?"
ReplyDeleteThere are often too many binary arguments made here. Lowe is not al bad (and certainly, not all good). As long as his role is diminished to what he is good at, there is no particular reason to get rid of him completely.
As long as Lowe is NOT allowed to manage the contracts or the cap nor go whale hunting, he was/is not a bad talent evaluator. He has always been able to find value defensemen, and when money was contrained, he was able to keep the team competitive finding value-for-money players overall.
His trades involving big name players were subpar verging on horrible. But most of his trades involving no name players were pretty good.
Even some of Lowe's hires have not been bad. Howson, Julien, Ward
My assertion is that Lowe became a bad GM one he had money. He began looking for big shiny players, and he rewarded the loyalty of some long serving warriors too much. He also learnt the wrong lessons from bringing in Pronger and Peca.
Take away his ability to spend, and look at the shiny stars that he might buy with the money, and the money-limited Lowe was not a horrible GM. In a diminished role, we might again begin to see Lowe's strengths rather than his weaknesses.
Remember anyone who one would replace Lowe with would have strengths and weaknesses too. Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't, if the devil has learnt their lesson.
Out of curiosity, are the GP statistics from their days as Oilers, or in the NHL in general? There's probably only a couple of examples where these players were traded before their 5-year window expired, but if they were dealt for an impact player (Lynch for Pronger), that might make the management aspect of the team look pretty good.
ReplyDeleteMy assertion is that Lowe became a bad GM one he had money. He began looking for big shiny players, and he rewarded the loyalty of some long serving warriors too much. He also learnt the wrong lessons from bringing in Pronger and Peca.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't say this is entirely true. He got 400% value on Brewer, Lynch and Woywitka. Absolutely fleeced St. Lou and I don't think there's much of an argument against that.
Pronger put the screws to him after the fact, and the rest is history.
Both Pronger trades were "forced" trades. The weaker side lost both Pronger trades. Lowe took advantage of St. Louis (Pleau?), and Burke took advantage of Lowe.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers management with another great play in late April, the only time of year their words cannot be backed up by demonstrable action. I love what Tambellini is saying but the Oiler organization has a history of promising a reasoned approach while delivering the opposite. Now that we've hit the worst finish in franchise history, my fear is that instead of actually correcting systemic issues all we can look forward to is a ramped up PR drive.
ReplyDeleteGreat work digging up all the draft info LT. Hopefully in 5 years' time we can look to this year as at least 4 or 5 X 82 games PLUS the knowledge that those games represent an impact player. Also, thank you commonfan13 for looking more closely at 1994 - it's nice to see it in a slightly different and more positive light.
To be completely honest, the Barnes article seems to be a subtle indictment of Katz as owner. It seems to suggest several times that he's been a Charles Wang-esque presence, meddling in the affairs of management.
ReplyDeleteI can't help but feel that the "clarity" Tambellini keeps talking about is not necessarily clarity for him, but for Katz.
Thanks for the picture LT. My favourite Oiler of all time. There were only good times in Edmonton when Paul was here.
ReplyDeleteAs long as Lowe is NOT allowed to manage the contracts or the cap nor go whale hunting, he was/is not a bad talent evaluator. He has always been able to find value defensemen, and when money was contrained, he was able to keep the team competitive finding value-for-money players overall.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Lowe did an ok job before his budget increased, but other GM's have been much better (I.e. Poile). There is zero indication that the organization realizes what Lowe's weaknesses are, and you cannot assume he will only use himself when the situation plays to his strengths.
Make no mistake he is still in charge. Wwhen interviewed subordinates such as Pendergrast refer often to Lowe, rarely to Tambellini, Stu has done the same.
As long as he is in charge my hope that this team can actually make quality management decisions is faint.
He destroyed the team and the buck still stops at his desk regardless how many time Tambellini tells the media that he is in charge.
Fire Kevin Lowe.
I think the real problem is that we as fans buy into things. Some blame the mass media for it but surely we can use the brain God gave us.
ReplyDeleteSather used to tell us we were lucky to have a team and most of us thought "well he must be right because he won all those Stanley's" and when Lowe arrived it seemed like a breath of fresh air.
Except that we couldn't compete money-wise so Weight and Guerin had to go and that seemed like the case when the Oilers went to G7 SCF in 2006.
But I think Lowe made some horrible missteps in that summer and we're still paying the bills. Trading Pronger (and the cap space) and not getting anything close to equal for the blue spelled death for 06-07 and beyond as the club began the process of on the job training with lesser talents.
And to in that summer Lowe (and possibly EIG) seemed to make a decision to either punish Ryan Smyth for his performance in the long spring of that year or for something else. Either way, they signed every Tom, Dick and Harry but didn't return his phonecalls.
Kevin Lowe isn't perfect and he most certainly isn't stupid. But those two things combined to effectively send this team into an elevator shaft and we're still going down faster and deeper than Linda Lovelace.
1. Trading Chris Pronger
2. Not using the Pronger $$ to replace him on the roster with Spacek-style defenders.
3. Signing lesser talents and leaving Smyth out in the cold.
That was one crappy summer. "Is it me?" Sure as hell is.
jon k,
ReplyDeleteI don't think there is any doubt that the article points to Katz, his push for a big fish, and his new clarity.
I wouldn't go as far as Charles Wang but there is no boubt Katz was involved.
If Katz was the problem, then ironically for all those Lowe haters out there, he might be a good insulator between Katz and the GM - you know, a good thing.
Ryan Smyth is way overpaid. If his contract was his asking price, it would have been another overpaid warrior. If it's around 4,5, then fine. But there's no way in hell Smyth owns the money he's doing.
ReplyDeleteGodot10
ReplyDelete"There are often too many binary arguments made here. Lowe is not all bad (and certainly, not all good). As long as his role is diminished to what he is good at, there is no particular reason to get rid of him completely."
Lets identify what Kevin Lowe is good at; he has a unique ability to look at another teams roster and off roster players and find # 4-5-6 D men and bring them in cheap.
There..........we are done identifying whet he is good at. Finished!!!!
He is bad at drafting. He is HORRIBLE at developing young kids, poor at stocking an AHL roster. Bad at managing his NHL roster. The worst at managing his money in pro sports and that includes the Detroit Lions.
If his job was to buy cars and all the Rolls Royce, Lamborghini and Ferrari's were sold......Lowe could be relied upon to buy a Ford Taurus and brag to his owner that it only cost him 75% of the cost of a Ferrari
So godot10.....why not pay him 80 grand to be a pro scout to do what he does best............ID under used D men on other teams
Lowe's strength is public relations. Surely we know this after all these years.
ReplyDeleteThose 1979 and 1980 drafts kind of stand out, don't they? They're both 450 GP clear of the next best.
ReplyDeleteA major reason was that both drafts effectively had two graduating classes, as the eligible age was bumped back to 19 and then to 18. So the drafts as a whole were extremely deep; I'll bet if you added up all the GP from all the players drafted those two might well rank as the top two drafts ever. But that aside, the Oilers had two of the finest drafts in NHL history, I would say certainly the best back-to-back drafts ever, with four Hall of Famers in Messier, Anderson, Coffey and Kurri plus two more very key players in Lowe and Moog.
It's also worth noting that the 1979 draft was just 6 rounds deep, and a number of undrafted players were signed as free agents. That included Charlie Huddy, in effect a 7th rounder in a 6-round draft. Huddy played 204 games in the subsequent 5 years, which for my money puts the Class of '79 to the top of the pack for the Oil.
And flashing those 6 rings.
ReplyDelete6!
I'm catching the Windsor vs. Kitchener tonight for game 2 of the OHL's Western Final at the good old Kitchener Aud. Talk about a classic and great junior hockey barn. Not a bad seat in the house. The only negative thing is that you can't bring your beers to your seats. You have to drink them in designated areas where you can't see the ice except on tv's. I think it's the only barn in Canada that does it like this. Anyways, this is going to be the first time that I will get to watch Taylor Hall live. It will be interesting to see how Hall and the rest of the Spitfires react to losing the 1st game in OT. A couple of beauty's on the Rangers team too. Jeff Skinner and Ryan Murphy (Don Cherry has been talking this kid up a lot lately). I will be watching every shift that Hall takes. Is there anything specific anyone wants me to watch for in regards to Hall or any other players playing tonight?
ReplyDeleteBruce: It was 6 rounds indeed. Ciccarelli wasn't drafted because he broke his leg. My buddy Jim Crosson was a high scoring junior D who didn't get drafted and then got bigger bonus money than he would have gotten if picked in rounds 4, 5 or 6.
ReplyDeleteInteresting times.
While we're still mentioning Smyth I'd like to point out that not signing him was not a poor decision. The inability to replace him was certainly a problem though. A few years later and it's apparent that Smyth would not have been worth 5.5 on a long term contract. Last three seasons have been riddled with injuries and not much goalscoring.
ReplyDeleteSigning Sheldon Souray was arguably a much larger error. The Oilers decided to go with the devil they didn't know (injury-prone, aging D man).
There are plenty of mistakes, missteps, and gaffs that can be attributed to management in the past few seasons. I still maintain that 6 years of Smyth at 5.5 would have been another.
Nice to see Ilya Byakin in the top 3
ReplyDeleteI think the real problem is that we as fans buy into things.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't agree more. This and the realization that we as fans, as people really, find it almost instinctual to create narrative and invent trends even where none exists are the two biggest things hockey has taught me this season.
LT: Another beauty who slipped through the '79 draft and got signed as a free agent was Tim Kerr, who went on to post four consecutive seasons of 54-58 goals for the Flyers in the mid-80s. Kerr was one of the great powerplayers of his or any generation, scoring 220 of his 370 career goals on the PP.
ReplyDelete//I agree that Lowe did an ok job before his budget increased, but other GM's have been much better (I.e. Poile).//
ReplyDeleteWhat has David Poile ever won? His teams scratch into the playoffs, and lose quickly thereafter. A one-round-and-done GM. His teams have never been able to take the next step. A marginally higher level of mediocrity.
Dizzy:
ReplyDeleteIf you can get a read on his ability to use his teammates, be in the right spots, etc - his hockey sense, that'd be great.
Is there anything specific anyone wants me to watch for in regards to Hall or any other players playing tonight?
ReplyDeleteYes indeed, Dizzy, I'd like to know if Hall spends a lot of his puck-carrying time with his head down. A young friend of mine with, uh, aggressive tendencies (mostly football, but some hockey) said he really noticed Hall skating with his head down a lot, and he just loved playing against guys like that. But as an Oiler fan he also expressed concern that Hall might not last too long if he doesn't correct that.
Somebody commented here about him getting blown up a lot; I know I've seen him get absolutely demolished twice this year in limited viewings, once in the World Junior and once in the Plymouth series. This was Eric Lindros' undoing, and he's a lot bigger man than Taylor Hall.
Enjoy the game!
LT:
ReplyDeleteDo you think GP tells you more about a draft's quality than points, at least for forwards?
Obviously points don't tell you anything about G, and a D can be quality without posting many points.
I just wonder if points would be a better proxy for draft success with forwards since a F that posts 1 PPG (generally) will be much more valuable than a forward who plays 80 games and posts 25 points.
speeds: I use it because you can put all positions together without worrying over anything. If you were looking at just forwards then I guess it could work, although one suspects that the kids with higher ppg's will also have more gp's.
ReplyDeleteDizzy:
ReplyDeleteHow are his interactions with the refs?
thanks
An example of the problem with GP is the 2003 draft.
ReplyDeleteIn the last 2 seasons:
Parise: GP = 163
Brodziak + Pouliot + Jacques: GP = 315
It looks like the Oilers are doing better by GP, but:
Parise: Pts = 176
Brodziak + Pouliot + Jacques: Pts = 105
Points tells us a different story, and IMO meshes better with the value to the team of each group. It's more valuable to draft 1 player like Parise than 3 guys like Brodziak, Pouliot, and Jacques, and that value is better reflected by points in place of GP, IMO.
jon k - but they could have had Smyth @ 5 per if they had gone after him after the Cup run
ReplyDeleteA lot more reasonable.
Guy has played sixty more games than Souray these past three years too.
You have to pay someone. A tough minutes left winger who scores twenty five to thirty a year, kills penalties, outscores tough opposition, works like a dog.
Hard to beat.
In any case the issue with the Smyth move, the Pronger move, the guys who left as free agents who wanted to be Oilers or who didn't, other trades through the years is that none of these guys were replaced. If you move out good players then you had better replace them. The 2006 team had ten forwards who could play top nine minutes and seven could play tough minutes, eight if you include Hemsky.
This year's club had how many guys who were either true top nine NHLers or who could play tough minutes?
If you keep moving out good players and don't replace them then you're going to be an awfully shitty team.
speeds: Yeah, I totally understand its limitations and this certainly isn't a measurement of specific player and quality.
ReplyDeleteLets put it another way. Each club has 23 roster spots and this measurement gives equal value to all of them. Why? We're looking for the "weight" of each draft season in order to place a specific value on it.
I think it has value, but it certainly isn't going to measure specific player quality well at all (as your example shows).
Very interesting article in the Urinal today by Dan Barnes. He says that Lowe's attempts to land the big fish were not his idea - "he was only doing as instructed" by Katz.
ReplyDeleteThat was always my theory. I mean, Lowe did a good job of building a decent, if not great, team on the cheap pre-lockout, and took excellent advantage of the changing circumstances brought about by the discontinuity of 2005 ('05-'06 was a banner year for him). I couldn't believe he'd entirely turned stupid after 2006. My feeling had always been that EIG was responding to a combination of the backlash to the Smyth trade and the threat of Katz's bid in 2007, and that when Katz took over in 2008, he wanted to make a big splash. Which is not to say Lowe's forgiven for other boneheaded moves made since then (and most certainly doesn't let him off the hook if he's goading players into playing hurt in October), but it does give a bit of perspective on where Big Whale Hunting initiated.
Also, since we're all about the draft and Hall v. Seguin these days, I'll resurrect my parting shot at Hall from the WJHC this past January:
I thought Hall’s flaws were just as strongly in evidence as his strengths. He overhandles the puck in traffic and creates a lot of turnovers from that, and he makes the same sort of blind drop/back passes we’ve been screaming at Sam Gagner over for two and a half years. Some of that comes with the territory of being an elite offensive player, no doubt, but his education at the NHL level is going to be harrowing at times for fans of his draft team, I’m sure.
Which is not to denigrate the fact that he has great hands, etc., just that he's got some definite warts on him. I also noticed that he tended not to use his teammates well all of the time, creating a couple of dumb offsides and turnovers in the live game I watched, though that did improve somewhat over the tournament. I don't know much about Seguin's game and relative strengths/weaknesses, since he wasn't on the WJHC team, so there's no real basis for comparison, but that's what stuck with me about Hall, watching him live once and on TV six or seven times.
I tend to agree with speeds but only when it comes to forwards. What is your method for pulling GP data? If it is similarly easy/difficult to collect points for forwards separately, it's probably the best way to go.
ReplyDeleteQuick OT question: the current survivors in my liquor cabinet are lemon gin, amaretto, and triple sec. Is there any way to make even two of them play nicely together?
Showerhead: All NHL games played through 5 seasons after they are drafted. So the clock starts clicking on Hall/Seguin this fall.
ReplyDeleteGin and triple sec should go with something, maybe lemons. Or kool-aid. :-)
Amaretto + Triple Sec + Cola = Retired Dr. Pepper
ReplyDeleteLemon Gin + Mineral Water or Sparkling Water = a damn refreshing beverage.
Someone sed:
ReplyDeleteVery interesting article in the Journal today by Dan Barnes. He says that Lowe's attempts to land the big fish were not his idea - "he was only doing as instructed" by Katz.
Lowetide sed:
Lowe is wagging the dog a little.
...
Vic sed:
No shit, LT.
LT and coach: Thank you both kindly, both suggestions will be enthusiastically tried.
ReplyDeleteAs for the data collection question LT, I wasn't asking about your criteria so much as how you go about collecting it. If it's the same amount of effort to you, scraping point totals would probably be a better indicator for forwards IMO. If it means you have to jump through more hoops finding data or spend too much time with your abacus, then I'll concede I'm just being greedy :)
Vic and LT: what is this "wagging the dog" and how is Lowe doing it? Does wagging the dog mean "making shit up after the fact because it sounds good and no one will call him on it"?
Google "Wag the Dog" Showerhead - it's a reference to a movie. I just wrote a post about this - I think it's probably Barnes' weakest piece I've ever read. It also seems like it ws dictated, given the reference to "13th" instead of "30th".
ReplyDeleteAs for the theory, Lowe was saying he wanted to spend more money a month before news of Katz' offer broke. I don't know that I explained it any more clearly but my thinking is that the Oilers GM should be able to spend to the cap, provided he can generate value from doing so. Lowe and Tambo have failed spectacularly at this.
One of the things we kind of get caught up in is who to blame. My Dad always said if you're in the room then you're guilty.
ReplyDeleteLowe has been "in the room" for a lot of stuff.
Doogie2K said...
ReplyDelete...but it does give a bit of perspective on where Big Whale Hunting initiated.
Huh? Well, you were an easy mark weren't you?
Lowe had success nabbing Pronger and once he lost him has tried to do the same thing at least once a year, every year since then. Katz didn't even buy the team yet, before Lowe was a about six deep in the list of failures.
Lowetide said...
I think the real problem is that we as fans buy into things. Some blame the mass media for it but surely we can use the brain God gave us.
Amen to that.
WTF!?! Did I see Tom Poti in a fight?
ReplyDeleteTom Poti!!!
ReplyDeleteIf Poti gets cut, can they use hydrogen peroxide?
ReplyDeleteThis Habs series is about a dozen different types of fun.
ReplyDeleteAs is what I'm drinking.
Showerhead. Finish one. Drink it with whatever. Then you can do whatever with the rest because you won't care.
This Dr. Pepper is actually pretty damn impressive. I do Amaretto + Coke dropshots all the time but never thought triple sec would play as nicely as it is - thanks coach!
ReplyDeleteSo it seems I'm either drunk off of the first sip or the Capitals have woken the fuck up. About damn time if it lasts longer than a shift.
Black Dog: that would be what normally happens, yes. Why waste the wisdom you gents and scholars on the interwebs though? Also, as a freakishly avid reader and a redhead, my girlfriend was wondering how she might apply to your bookstore. I told her she had better wait until you start franchising because 1) I'm not ready to move back to Toronto and 2) now that I've come across the idea I will settle for no less than manager with an office. A very private office.
ReplyDeleteThere's a whale of a ball game on McCarver's channel right now. Bottom of the 15th.
ReplyDeleteWhile I'm monologuing, your 2010 Norris trophy winner sucks at defense.
ReplyDeleteShowerhead - yeah on for four GA now.
ReplyDeleteBut this one is going to OT. Wow.
Anyhow, yeah Green adds a lot up front but I remember a bit of angst when he didn't make the Olympic club. Was pretty happy when he did not.
Hmm, I vaguely remember a post over at IOF extolling the virtues of redheads. That was you, wasn't it? Makes sense.
Sorry though, in this dream no boyfriends/husbands on the payroll.
MTL and WAS are playing some entertaining hockey..
ReplyDeleteOvechkin with 4 points so far i believe.
B.G. - I've caught at least a bit of each series so far and this one is a beauty, best of the lot.
ReplyDeleteThe Habs are getting raped by the officials. What a brutal display of reffing.
ReplyDeleteWolfie - I'm sure LT will chime in any second here but the Habs got the calls for about eighty years or so so I don't really feel sorry for them.
ReplyDeleteBut you're right. That Pouliot call was absolute shit, for one.
Oh fuck off. Montreal needs to give back a few Stanley's from the 70s then we can talk. Pricks.
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong. I'm no Habs fan. Although since Roy left they've managed to gain a little soft spot in my heart. I am french-canadian after all.
ReplyDeleteThe Caps are a dynamic offensive team and don't need much help to win games. They just got this one handed to them. The only thing the refs haven't done is push the puck across the line for them.
If it were the Oilers playing I would have put something through my 52" LCD TV by now.
I remember McCarver as a catcher. Anyone else? Bruce? We're in the 17th.
ReplyDeleteBruce remembers McCarver when he was in short pants.
ReplyDeleteThe Mets are putrid. They have 6 hits in essentially what is 2 games. Mets are classic example of paying for what players did, not what they are going to do.
ReplyDeleteI miss the Expos. Did you know the 'spos had McCarver on their team one year? Did so.
ReplyDeleteMan, Backstrom was a steal at 4th overall back in 2006. First overall if you could do the draft over? Or does Toews have the Canadian edge?
ReplyDeleteallow me to link to myself:
ReplyDeletehttp://hockeysymposium.blogspot.com/2010/03/backstrom-offer-sheet-candidate.html
Think anyone takes a crack at it? Think he makes it to July 1st unsigned?
Schitzo: No, I think you take Backstrom.
ReplyDeletespeeds: Would he come to EDM?
Ok Canucks/Kings.
ReplyDeleteGod I love the playoffs.
I'm with ya LT. The Expos were my 2nd favorite sports team during the mid 80's til they were gone. I just can't keep with the Nationals, its too far removed now.
ReplyDeleteLT: there are teams that could pitch a bunch of money at Backstrom. SJ is a good example, they've got 11.3 coming off the cap between Nabokov and Marleau alone.
ReplyDeleteI think he'd sign with EDM if he thought it was an offer WSH would match, even though it's more than WSH was/is offering. Beyond that, I'm less sure.
No disrespect meant to J. Staal, but hard to believe PIT's top 3 C's could be Crosby/Malkin/Backstrom.
That said, I'm not necessarily endorsing signing Backstrom to an offer sheet. I think you could make an argument for it depending what else you can get done, but signing Backstrom to an offer sheet and still rebuilding doesn't make a ton of sense to me, whatever "rebuilding" means.
ReplyDeleteI do think a 1st line of Penner/Backstrom/Hemsky would be fun to watch, though.
Speeds: Very interesting idea. Let me modify the proposal a little. What if the Oilers decided to move Penner for a 2011 1st + 2012 2nd, and moved Hemsky for a 2011 1st + 2012 first.
ReplyDeleteYou'd have Backstrom / Gagner / Horc at centre and while we'd be brutally weak at wing the first year we'd have MPS, Hall, and Eberle in the pipeline. It's totally blue-skying but if those kids pan out, you could sign Backstrom AND still have several first rounders over the next couple of years to keep the pipeline from drying up.
My proposal, btw, would be one of the most high-risk, high-reward options possible. If the kids don't pan out or Backstrom craters, my kid will be in college before the team is competitive again.
ReplyDeleteSchitzo:
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers were interested in offer-sheeting Backstrom, I would be pretty tempted to see what happens in year one with the team as I hypothesized, before mitigating the downside future risk by trading away Hemsky and Penner.
Penner-Backstrom-Hemsky
Hall-Horcoff - Pisani
Cogliano-Gagner-Eberle
Brule-Pouliot-Jones
Potulny, Stortini
Pretty decent F group, I would imagine.
btw, this mets/cards game is awesome. Heading to the 20th.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I can see how that's tempting to try out. I'd run Hall with Backstrom, myself - I'm pretty sure Backstrom knows what to do with an explosive LW with a wicked shot.
ReplyDeletePenner - Gagner - Eberle to kill the softs and then someone to help Horc and Pies.
But it doesn't matter, as the goaltending would let us down anyways.
There's certainly a bunch of things you could try.
ReplyDeleteHall-Backstrom-Hemsky
Penner-Horcoff-Gagner
One might guess that would be a pretty decent top 6?
Horcoff-Backstom-Hemsky
Penner-Seguin-Eberle
Cogliano-Gagner-Pisani
??
Heck, you could reunite Horpensky and run Hall/Backstrom/Eberle to demolish the softs.
ReplyDeleteThis was one of the most brutal display of officiating i ever saw.
ReplyDeleteFirst time i see the refs fuck up 3 goals.
Goals N3 and N4 from the Capitals are OBVIOUS interference.
The Pouliot call was the biggest blown call i ever seen. They'res NO REASON to refuse that goal to Gionta.
Watching HNIC, and the intermission guy, dont know his name, dogs Gretzky with a lame joke. Pretty dumb thing to do.
ReplyDelete"The Gretzky hattrick, score a goal, get an assist, and have somebody come out and fight for you"
Whats next? calling Ghandi a nerd?
Danny: Well he did get his ass handed over by Neal Broten
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteWhat has David Poile ever won? His teams scratch into the playoffs, and lose quickly thereafter. A one-round-and-done GM. His teams have never been able to take the next step. A marginally higher level of mediocrity.
Godot,
David Poile has exactly as many Stanley Cups as Kevin Lowe does as a GM.
What has David Poile ever won? As GM of the Preds, more games than Kevin Lowe with less $$$.
You brought up that Lowe was a better GM when he had less $$$ to manage. I agreed to a point, but then suggested other were much better at managing with less $$$, and the master of this is Poile.
This article by Tyler Dellow explains is far better than I ever could.
By Tyler's metric of margin dollars/marginal standings point, Nashville is the 2nd best managed franchise in the league.
Here is a break down of Nashville and Edmonton's total payroll and regular season points since the lock out.
Edmonton
2009-10 $ 50,782,500 62pts
2008-09 $ 54,067,381 85pts
2007-08 $ 46,915,659 88pts
2006-07 $ 42,280,000 71pts
2005-06 $ 38,469,340 95pts
Nashville
2009-10 $ 47,766,000 100pts
2008-09 $ 44,155,000 88pts
2007-08 $ 30,273,340 91pts
2006-07 $ 43,011,600 110pts
2005-06 $ 31,649,440 106pts
I pulled the salary info from usatoday.com, I assume when they calculate total payroll, it discounts the injury $$$.
I'll tell you something David Poile has won that Kevin Lowe hasn't. The respect of his peers and knowledgeable people.
Every series tie after 2 games.
ReplyDeleteDon't think that has ever happened before in a 16 team playoff.
Fun games to watch too for the most part.
oops, forgot Chi vs. Nas has only gone one game.... although good chance that one goes 1-1 too.
ReplyDelete"I'll tell you something David Poile has won that Kevin Lowe hasn't. The respect of his peers and knowledgeable people."
ReplyDeleteSteve Yzerman and Hockey Canada respects Kevin Lowe.
As for what the minnows think of Lowe...I doubt he cares.
Huh? Well, you were an easy mark weren't you?
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying Lowe's blameless for this mess. I'm saying I find it perfectly plausible that the orders for Big Whale Hunting came from on high, at least initially. The conditions certainly existed for that to be the case in 2007 and 2008. 2009, on the other hand, with the Khabibulin signing and the pathetic pursuit of Heatley -- which I liken to the buck-toothed nerd stalking the captain of the cheerleading squad so she'll go to prom with him, even though she's already got a standing arrangement for the backseat of the QB's car that night -- I don't know where the hell that could've come from; maybe a fever dream or something.
I've said it a few times before, but that 2006 draft was the critical point of divergence for Pittsburgh and Washington.
ReplyDeleteAfter Erik Johnson is off the board, the big 4 centres of interest pop up. Pittsburgh gets next crack and picks...Jordan Staal. Chicago gets their shot and takes Jonathan Toews. Washington then walks up to the podium and grabs Nicklas Backstrom and says thank you very much. Phil Kessel finally gets picked and goes to Boston, which turned into a good season and Hall/Seguin for them, plus another 1st and a 2nd.
No knock against Jordan Staal, but if the Pens has grabbed Toews or Backstrom they'd be at a whole other level now. And if Washington had gotten Staal, well he's not quite the smooth operator Backstrom is.
Speaking of the 2006 draft, looking at it now the Leafs made out pretty damn good. I'll say one thing for John Ferguson Jr., while he was a horrible horrible GM, his drafting wasn't too shabby. 13th and 44th overall, 2x4th & 3x6th round picks.
ReplyDelete283gp 107pts already with 3 players in the show. 1 establishing as a top 6 player, and 2 as top 9 players so far.
2 Prospects tracking well, with 1 Goalie in the AHL posting 14-8 with a .925 SP on the Marlies who aren't world beaters. The other player wrapping up his last year at U of Denver where he posted 41 points in 41 games.
2 Propects overseas that look to be lost, with 1 in his first KHL season going 47gp 16pts and described as a pest. The other is a D in the German leagues.
I remember McCarver as a catcher. Anyone else? Bruce? We're in the 17th.
ReplyDeleteSorry to be late, I watched the first 11 innings and had to leave. Mets kept walking Pujols and that fucking Holliday kept striking out. Fucker can't catch a routine fly in the playoffs and now he can't hit. Give him $17 MM a year I say.
What were you asking me again? Oh, yeah, McCarver. Shit, yeah, I remember him as a catcher, and a damn fine one with the Redbirds of the 60s. I remember him hitting a three-run dinger in the 10th to win Game 5 of the 1964 World Series in Yankee Stadium, and then stealing home in Game 7, the first double steal I ever saw in my life. Imagine, a catcher stealing home. Now imagine him doing it in Game 7 of the WFS.
McCarver was Bob Gibson's favourite backstop, and later prolonged his career by becoming Steve Carlton's "personal catcher" with the Phillies in the late '70s. The rest of the rotation pitched to Bob Boone, who was a great catcher in his own right, but Lefty preferred McCarver as a battery mate. Ultimately McCarver's career stretched from 1959 to 1980, making him one of the rare four-decade players, a distinction he shares with another Expo, Ron Fairly.
Just a thought:
ReplyDeleteIn the two decades before the lockout, the Oilers drafted exactly two first line forwards - Smyth and Hemsky, plus Arnott who became a first line forward for other teams. If you expand that top six forwards, you can maybe add Horcoff to the Oilers list, plus Satan as one who became a top six forward for another team.
After the draft the Oilers will have four forwards you can legitimately project as top six forwards (Gagner, Eberle, MPS and Seguin/Hall), all of whom may well end up as top line players. Obviously it remains to be seen how many of these players fulfill their potential, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that there is more top end, home grown talent in the system than there has been for a long, long time.
There is no denying that the current management has many flaws, but the drafting is an order of magnitude better than it has been for decades, and that isn't even taking into consideration the number of lower round picks that currently look like they might have a career at the highest level - Peckham, Omark, Hartikainen, Vandevelde and Motin.
They deserve credit for that and it shouldn't be lost in the (justifiable) criticism of their flaws in other areas.
No disrespect meant to J. Staal, but hard to believe PIT's top 3 C's could be Crosby/Malkin/Backstrom.
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one here more intrigued by the thought of Crosby/Malkin/Toews?
All things considered, an in spite of the Maguire man-love for the 2007 World Junior hero, I'd take Toews over Backstrom, followed by E. Johnson, then J. Staal.
Staal is a better fit as a third line centre for Crosby and Malkin than Backstrom. He isn't going to be unhappy doing the no-glory grunt work
ReplyDeleteWith Toews or Backstrom, somebody amongst the big three would likely have been unhappy in Pittsburgh quickly. Staal may not be the better player, but for Pittsburgh, he was probably the better choice, because they have three centres that fit together better, and will likely be able to keep together for nearlly a decade.
2003 ranked #4 LT? Games played aside when you have the quality available i.e. (2003) and whiff as badly a (S)Lowe did, not once, not twice, not even 3 times, that year is one better erased from Oilers history altogether. Top 5 when you have a chance to grab a franchise changer? The only reason 2002 can't be labeled right along with 2003 as an "unmitigated disaster" is lack of depth past the #12 position. Still pretty ugly when you draft 2 kids in the second round that make your first rounder look like a career ball-hockey alsoran and especially grotesque when you consider those second rounders were given away for a face saving attempt.
ReplyDeletederrick: We're not comparing the Oilers 2003 draft to other team's 2003 draft. We're comparing the Oilers 2003 draft against the Oilers other drafts.
ReplyDeleteI hear you LT but being reminded of 2002/2003 is like looking at my high school pictures...cringe inducing.
ReplyDeleteSo here is what I noticed from the Kitchener vs. Windsor game last night. Kitchener won 5-2, they took a 3-0 lead at one point. Windsor took the play to Kitchener for most of the game but Rangers goalie Brandon Maxwell, played a hell of a game with 59 saves. Another key player for the Rangers and who's going to be a good pick in the draft was Jeff Skinner. Great hands, especially in tight and lots of willingness to compete. His line played most of the game against the Hall-Henrique-Mitchell line and was able to shut them down pretty much for two thirds of game. Windsor went with only two lines in the third.
ReplyDeleteHere are some questions some of you asked:
Speeds:
If you can get a read on his ability to use his teammates, be in the right spots, etc - his hockey sense, that'd be great.
•Good hockey sense
•Uses he teammates to create space
•Defensive positioning is solid in all three zones
Bruce:
Yes indeed, Dizzy, I'd like to know if Hall spends a lot of his puck-carrying time with his head down. A young friend of mine with, uh, aggressive tendencies (mostly football, but some hockey) said he really noticed Hall skating with his head down a lot, and he just loved playing against guys like that. But as an Oiler fan he also expressed concern that Hall might not last too long if he doesn't correct that.
•That was one of the things I wanted to watch for because that’s one of the concerns expressed all over the Al Gore. I found for the most part, I found that Hall has he head up while skating with the puck. He got the puck along the boards a few times and he does have his head down for the first couple of couple of steps. But then has it up looking for the d-man. I can tell you that Hall is fearless cutting across the middle, but has he head up while doing it.
•Hall is pretty solid and didn’t get hit hard all game
•In the offensive zone, he’s strong with puck and uses speed and skating to elude players covering him
Jfry:
How are his interactions with the refs?
•Doesn’t talk to refs. The players with a letter were the only ones talking to the ref’s.
my period by period breakdown:
ReplyDelete•1st period highlights
•Kitchener
oSkinner has great hands in tight
oMurphy, smooth skater, very heady, great shot
oReminds me of a Scott Neidermeyer
oMaxwell standing on his head
oshots were 16-12 for windsor
obut were 15-4 at half way through the 1st
•Windsor
oHall played on the left side with Henrique and Mitchell
•2nd period highlights
•Hall defensively responsible, anticipates opportunities to offense
•5x5 – covers the slot and points
•Pk – played with Timmins
•Hall stayed back with the d-man in the neutral zone, 3 across
•Discipline in only taking short shifts
•Was able to show his explosive speed, one step and he’s gone
•Hall tries to use his teammates to create space and opportunities
•Give Kitchener a lot of credit, they were playing tough and physical
•3rd period Highlights
•Hall-Henrique-Nemisz
•Hall also double shifting, Windsor down to two lines
•Hall’s goal, great shot from the left side, top of the circle, top corner
GODOT10
ReplyDelete"What has David Poile ever won? His teams scratch into the playoffs, and lose quickly thereafter. A one-round-and-done GM. His teams have never been able to take the next step. A marginally higher level of mediocrity."
Nashville' s teams nearly always make the playoffs and if you could trade their system for our system smart hockey men would do it in a heartbeat.
Course Lowe got us the 06 run and absolutely NOTHING else. Meant to ask how was your 09/10 this year
Thanks, Dizzy.
ReplyDeleteI notice that the best draft years for any scout are the early years when he's in charge.
ReplyDeleteI think it's because scouting is a job that is best done by hungry, hungry, hungry men, men out to prove themselves, and that's what Fraser was in 1979, Pendergasts in early 2000s and McGregor right now. So expect another good draft or two out of Stu. (Then maybe think about replacing him . . .)
Good job, Dizzy.
ReplyDelete