Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Avalanche at Oilers, G80, 09-10

This is Devan Dubnyk. I've followed his career since the day the Oilers drafted him, and found myself cheering for the kid at some point early on. It might have been all the shorthanded situations he faced in Kamloops, or maybe its just the idea of a kid this big being an actual NHL goalie (visions of Ken Dryden, etc).

Dubnyk's career progress has not been a smooth transition from one level to the next, but the big man has shown enough at each level to move up the depth chart. DD now finds himself at a point where he and another young goalie need to be protected from waivers in the fall, and neither man has established himself as an NHL player.

I think the Oilers may run with three goaltenders again next season. I've been in favor of cutting bait with either goaltender (would prefer to flush Khabibulin) but at this point it might be worthwhile to see a little more. This team isn't going to make a Stanley run spring 2011, and Devan Dubnyk looks like he might be a player. Since this rebuild appears to be starting at the foundation, there's plenty of time to see if he's the real thing.
--

Colorado won last night, and combined with the Flames loss it means Calgary will miss the second season. I can't imagine how that team goes about the business of deciding if this is the summer to offload Iginla and Kipper, as well as those 10 or 12 guys Sutter picked up at the deadline. What a mess.

184 comments:

  1. I like Dubnyk too.

    Three goalies. My God. What a loser org. Of course after a few weeks it will be ADD and DD again so whatever.

    Nice work on the Khabibulin signing Tambellini. What do you have for an encore?

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  2. Calgary Flames - what an abject failure.

    Daryl Sutter has really screwed the franchise going forward. Flames fans should write a dissertation to Keng King, as they should abhor this gross injustice.

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  3. I would assume given the current state of the Flames and the fact they have no first round and no second round pick at this year's draft, there will be some pretty tough questions being asked behind closed doors.

    Flames have the option of giving this year's third round pick to Edmonton (as part of the Staios trade) or next year. I suspect they keep the pick this year just so they have a earlier pick.

    It looks like the wheels have come off their little red wagon.

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  4. I too like Dubnyk. From what I've seen of him, he just seems calm in net. Although he's given up some pretty weak goals...

    Do we really need to be worried that someone will claim him or JDD on waivers? I'm not completely sold that other teams are chomping at the bit to get either...

    ...and the Flames suck...

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  5. Maybe people should wait to see who's wearing Oiler silks next season before calling the team a "loser org."

    Hard to imagine GMs breaking down the door to pick up either DD or JDD off waivers. Everyone else has prospect and roster depth goalies, too. Everyone's looking for the next Ryan Miller, not another development project.

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  6. I think there is too much hand wringing about losing one of our big young goalies. There are reasonably priced vetran options out there if (when?) Khabby goes down again, and I'm not sure either player has shown enough at the pro level to suggest they will become better than that replacement level.

    But maybe I'm biased, because I'm not convinced that it ever makes sense to draft/develop goalies under the current CBA with earlier free agency.

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  7. My bold predictions for next season
    One of Penner or Hemmer will be gone I'm guessing Penner. Brule will score 26+ next year. Khabi is healthy for 47 games. Jordan Staal becomes an Oiler.

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  8. The Oilers would probably have competition for the #1 pick if Kipper didn't have a huge bounce back year for the Flames.

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  9. Why wouldn't a team take a chance, on either of our two high round goalie prospects? Why couldn't a team not necessarily planning to contend next season save a few million on a legitimate backup while their own prospects aren't ready and wait for the Oilers to try and sneak through one of JDD or DD and take a chance that they actually might be something decent in front of an average team? Seems rather obvious to me.

    Heck, Smack got picked up on waivers...he who skates about as well as Happy Gilmore and sees the ice just as often. Anything can happen...

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  10. In terms of the whole JDD/DD waiver thing, I don't think either are a huge risk to be picked up on waivers.

    The real question is if one of them did, which one would be more painful to lose long term?

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  12. I've been in favor of cutting bait with either goaltender (would prefer to flush Khabibulin)

    I'd be up for flushing all three
    Tho' there is no real way to flush Mr DUI.
    JDDD may someday provide NHL claibre goaltending.
    May.
    Someday.

    As for the loser org question, 30th didn't happen because of bad luck

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  15. Looking over JDD's and DD's numbers since March (the last time we had more than 2 NHL D-men in the lineup) and they don't look all that bad. JDD's numbers put him at average and that's not taking into account the team (hard not to laugh when I type that) in front of him. DD's numbers are eye-popping but his SV% is on the right side of .900, and again, that's not factoring in the group in front of him.

    With the kids just getting their feet wet, are we jumping to conclusions a little early on them? I mean everybody was ready to anoint Garon the savior and our goalie for the next 5 years after after 40 games and look how that turned out.

    I still think there might be value there and it would be a shame to see somebody else realize it while we're rotting with friggin' Khabby...thanks, Tambo!!

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  16. magisterrix - four years straight out of the playoffs? how much losing should we put up with before we call this org. losers? you have a far higher tolerance for this shit than I do if you're willing to give these guys a pass

    Ty made a comment yesterday about Oilers' radio guys laughing about the Flames. It would be nice if they would turn the spotlight on Oiler management with the same amount of contempt.

    2004-2010

    Oilers - 1 appearance in the SCF, no other playoff appearances

    Flames - 1 appearance in the SCF, 4 other playoff appearances

    Are the Flames in deep shit? Sure they are. But until the Oilers actually do something right I'll refrain from slamming Calgary. At least they've had something to cheer for this past half dozen seasons.

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  17. I am always thankful for the mornings I get to read LT while I have my coffee. Maybe that's weird. Nevertheless, thank you LT for sticking with the game day posts all season. I know it hasn't been easy, but I've thoroughly enjoyed reading them.

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  18. I've been in favor of cutting bait with either goaltender (would prefer to flush Khabibulin)

    Yeah, that'd be a nice option. Somehow get rid of that awful signing, and never speak of it again, dispose of one of JDD or Dubnyk (I like Dubnyk, so given my lack of goaltender evaluation skills they should probably stick with JDD), and sign some mid-range veteran for a year or two. It sounds so rational.

    Last night I dreamed that Hemsky and Cogliano had been traded for Kyle Okposo, a middling pick, and some prospect I'd never heard of.

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  19. Blogger's acting extra sketchy today. I must have accidentally changed my settings to "don't work properly" again. I'll check the dashboard...

    Apologies in advance if that last post shows up more than once. Or this one, god forbid.

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  20. Thinking about Hemsky After reading the last post.

    Pete:
    Since lockout:
    Hemsky (4.1M)
    313GM 82G 207A .92PPG
    63GM 16G 41A Average Season

    Tanguay: (2.5M this year 3y@????)
    360GM 92G 199A .78PPG
    75GM 19G 41A Average season

    If we could sign tanguay for reasonably Less, I would trade Hemsky. Same production less cap hit. Same Player and return on hemsky we are ahead as a team.

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  22. I'm more of a DD fan just because his style is a lot quieter than that of JDD and I hate watching goalies sliding all over the fucking place.

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  23. We talk about unreliable injured players. Hemsky's average shocked me.

    As for the goalies. Khabibulin's unreliability lends to a three goalie system:
    42GM Khabibulin
    20GM JDD
    20GM Dubnyk

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  24. If we could sign tanguay for reasonably Less, I would trade Hemsky. Same production less cap hit. Same Player and return on hemsky we are ahead as a team.


    I'd rather have both. Having a Tanguay up front instead of a POS or Nilsson would go a long way in protecting the Eberles, Halls and MPS's.

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  25. rickibear, do the splits on that. Tanguay's average is skewed by a good year in Colorado and one good year in Calgary. After that, he's slid downhill.

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  26. RB:

    I kinda half buy what you're saying, but post-lockout Hemsky's missed 1, 18, 8, 10, and 60 games (I think). This season really jacks up his average games missed. So does he really have such serious durability issues? I think it's up for debate.

    I like Tanguay, though, despite the recent precipitous decline in his numbers. Gotta admit I have no idea how he's doing this year, beyond point totals, as I tend to ignore Tampa. But yeah, like Black Gold I'd rather have both.

    Thinking about all this just makes me more and more pissed off about the Khabibulin contract. What a stupid goddamn albatross to have dangling there for years, squawking dehydratedly and sucking up cap space. Souray can (will?) be traded, Visnovsky's gone, and Horcoff's here for the long haul, but he'd look a hell of a lot better if this team had a little depth. But we're stuck with the oldest, most fragile, and apparently drunkest of the whole batch of highly paid veterans as the team kicks into full-on rebuild mode. For years.

    What a moronic move. If there's one thing that the whole "braintrust" should be fired for it's that awful signing. They've got to fix it somehow.

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  27. http://thatdidntmissbymuch.wordpress.com/2010/04/05/the-shift/

    Haha, a great post on Strudwick and Chorney getting stuck on the ice for 3:45 against Detroit, during which time every Red Wing made it onto the ice.

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  28. Tanguay is a good player and a solid ES performer, but replacing Hemsky with him doesn't replace Hemsky's near-elite talent on the powerplay and powerplay performance is a big driver of player cost, so it's not like you'll find a ton of underpaid powerplay guys on the scrapheap to bring that skill.

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  29. BD: Much better idea.

    Regwald: tanguays Minutes in Tampa
    #2 line EV and Shares #2PP minutes with Bochenski and Purcell.

    tell me he doesn't get better minutes here.

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  30. To be clear, though, I'd sign (short-term) Tanguay in a heartbeat and either appreciate his help in babysitting our rookies or consider him a strong incentive to make an honest, don't-trade-kids-or-picks-for-help playoff run.

    Good player, just not really a comparable to Hemsky's skillset regardless of points per game.

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  31. Where is everyone who praised Sutter for his ability to address need? ;)

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  32. Yeah, the Flames' future looks grim, and Sutter's done a crappy job (Jokinen? Kotalik?!? draft picks?). Their stars are aging, their scoring is awful, and were I a Flames fan I'd be very, very worried, but the bad team from down south will still finish ~30 points up on the Oilers.

    30! Let's not be taunting too loudly yet.

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  33. Central Scouting released its final rankings today. Among the hightlights:

    Tyler over Taylor.

    Fowler not the top ranked defenseman (it's now Gudbranson).

    Despite only playing about 20 games, Brett Connolly ranks as the 3rd best American skater (over the defensemen)

    Kabanov's stock plummeting, he's now the 31st ranked NA skater.

    Full lists can be found at TSN.ca

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  34. RB: Let's look at that per 82.

    Hemsky: 82GP 22G 54A 76P
    Tanguay: 82GP 21G 45A 66P

    Moreover, what are Hemsky's season averages if you exclude this year's season-ending shoulder surgery in November?

    I'm with the crowd that'd rather have both. Tanguay was an elite EV producer when he had someone to play with, but is not so great on the PP, while Hemsky is a PP god and also pretty good at EV. And for what Tanguay'd probably cost, I'd be happy to take a flyer on him and see how he meshes with the top six.

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  35. Good player, just not really a comparable to Hemsky's skillset regardless of points per game.

    Uh What! Role based on minutes and Desjardin rank as forward in skill.
    05-06 COL 1.09PPG #1LWEV; #2FPP
    06-07 CAL 1.00PPG #1LWEV; #3FPP
    07-08 CAL .74PPG #1LWEV (top 30 +/- & top 60 Pts); #4FPK top 50 PKGA; #2LW PP top 30 Assists)
    08-09 MTL .82PPG #2LWEV top 40 +/- & top 30 pts; #2 FPP top 30 Assists)
    09-10 TBL .45PPG #3 LWEV (not in any); #6-8FPP (not in any)

    So we have a player who faces tough Comp Outscores and generates points @ EV with decent Linemates. Top 30 set-up man on the PP.
    Completely different!

    career Shooting % in ()
    Tanguay(18.8)-xxx-Pisani(12.9)

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  36. Tanguay is another player that doesn't have any interest in the corners. He's a good player on the right team but on this club he just further swings the pendulum in the pansy direction.

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  37. Let's also remember one more thing about Tanguay.

    He's placing in the worst division in hockey where just about everyone's numbers are inflated (JW did an excellent post on this a month ago).

    I wouldn't want Tanguay and his unwillingness to go in corners either. We've got enough soft, small players (POS) as it is.

    Yech.

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  38. I'd be happy to take a flyer on him and see how he meshes with the top six.

    Are you looking to compete for the playoffs next year then? I'm more in the "suck for another year would be okay if we're in the lottery again" corner. I'd like to find some servicable AHLers that know how to play.

    I'd be fully happy to extend one year one-way contract offers to AHL veteran scorers like Hershey's Alex Giroux (67GP 46-53-99) and Keith Aucoin (70gp 35-67-102) and give them a legit shot at the NHL. They're playing for Washington's farm team and can't supplant Ovechkin/Backstrom, but I'd like their chances against Nilsson/Cogliano.

    I was soap-boxing for their contracts last year, and I'll do so again this offseason. I mean christ, Giroux scored 60(!) goals in the AHL last season. You think that might look good riding shotgun for Gagner maybe?

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  39. Dorito, I've always wondered about Giroux (I trust you've seen him live) -- why can't he make the jump? Is it footspeed? Is he a Jason Jaffray with better hands? He seems to have the size and the smarts...

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  40. Sean - at least he tried to make something happen

    Since the Jokinen move its been a lot of crap but I'd never criticize Darryl Sutter for sitting on his hands and not trying to make something happen

    Seriously if you give him a D as a GM based on his body of work since 2003 then Oilers' management gets a grade that isn't even on the chart its so low. As noted even in this terrible year where they will finish just out of the playoffs they're miles ahead of the Oilers.

    I'll hold off on the huzzahs for our crackerjack managers until we finish ahead of the Flames more than once in six years.

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  41. BD, I dunno. Leaving aside Daryl's trading performances for a minute, his egregious salary cap mismanagement from last season was was a blatant management failure -- and grounds for dismissal imo. I don't think that kind of thing would've been tolerated in any other business, but I guess I'm discounting the "old boys"/loyalty premium in the NHL business model!

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  42. Tanguay is a fine skilled player. Doesn't shy away from the corners as much as some people here claim to. He's just an ordiniary guy that won't check much more than the others. He has a good vision, and i think would be a good fit with a guy who has a good shot, like Gilbert Brulé.

    That or you keep Robert =).

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  43. If Calgary bounces back and rebuilds quickly, can we look forward to the Oilers embracing the Calgary Model(TM) in the near future?

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  44. sorry, rickibear.

    I meant about Tanguay that his PPG numbers are skewed by two good seasons at the start of the period of time you mentioned. if you split the time period into two halves, you can see how much Tanguay has fallen. Also, note that Habs team was a decent club he was playing on. Not the low end Tampa club he has played with the last two years.

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  45. Jordan Weal, Jeff Skinner, Chris Cunningam.

    All players who will outplay theyr draft position.

    Also i will put up a big man who should surprise. Matthrew Bissonnette (Not listed)


    2009-10 Moncton Wildcats QMJHL 28 4 14 18 12

    Since Trade

    2009-10 Lewiston MAINEiacs QMJHL 27 12 19 31 27

    Center
    Born Jan 16 1992 -- Beaconsfield, PQ
    Height 6.03 -- Weight 172 -- Shoots L

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  46. I'd be happy to see at least an attempt at competing next year, in a non-future mortgaging way. By that I mean signing 1 or 2 cheap vets and seeing what happens with a healthi(er) team. I don't think we should rule out an Avalanche-style return to competitivess. Look how effective some of their rookies were this year. Of course they have Craig Anderson now too..

    If it happens we're brutal again then we'll get another lottery. Fine. Trade some fodder at the deadline. But at least attempt to win from the beginning.

    Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh should be criticized for taking so damn long to get competitive, not applauded. It's not a good model to follow. It's a lazy, uncreative one.

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  47. Glad to see the sheen fading on the Sutters. There was too much Calgary love around here earlier in the year...

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  48. "Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh should be criticized for taking so damn long to get competitive, not applauded. It's not a good model to follow. It's a lazy, uncreative one."

    You can criticize them but they can't eear what you say with Stanley cup rings plugging ear.

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  49. smylsdys - oh they should be fired now and they probably will be

    of course here again is another difference between the Falmes and the Oilers

    Flames make the playoffs four years in a row. Then they don't in one year and that combined with cap mismanagement (I would guess) is going to lead to a thorough housecleaning, including the team president

    Oilers go from a goal away from being the Cup winner to last place, missing the playoffs four straight years, all the while spending like drunken sailors

    The only guys to pay the price are MacT, Huddy and Billy Moores.

    And Ryan Smyth the greedy prick.

    Draw your own conclusions as to which franchise is more concerned with winning and lay down your monay on which team gets back to the playoffs first.

    I know who I would bet on.

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  50. Man, if Kabanov really does drop to 31 I think it would be madness not to take a gamble on him.

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  51. Agreed geowal. If the owner is honest in being willing to bury some salary you can very easily envision a team skeleton of:

    Hall/Horcoff/Hemsky
    Penner/Gagner/Nilsson
    Potulny/Pouliot/Stone
    Stortini/Jones

    Gilbert/Whitney
    Smid

    Khabibulin

    for ~$42MM.

    At that point, you make a few smart, short-term bets on a goaltender and a couple of third line/pairing players, try to acquire a difference maker on defense (but don't go crazy), and then play the season, make trades that make sense in the long-term, no rentals... if Hall is good, Khabibulin holds up, and a coin or two land heads we could see the second season, if not, we're back in the lottery.

    Either way is fine, but at least make the damn effort, there's a worthwhile team underneath all the crap.

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  52. Black Dog: of course here again is another difference between the Falmes and the Oilers

    Jesus, I get the cynicism, but wow.. you've taken it to a whole 'nother level.

    They make the playoffs and get bounced in 4 straight years where they're expected to push or contend. They've scapegoated all that onto their coaches, so the management could avoid accountability spectacularly. Seriously, in this regard, Sutter makes Lowe look like a willing fall guy - he's still blaming others, talking about their last minute .600 run of hockey and talking about the strength of the West over the East.

    Now they're out, and they're in the same shitty position the Oilers were in 2004. Do they send away assets to rebuild a contender or is 8th and 1 round enough? Do they even have the money? How about the ability to move salary - because this core won't ever get it done.

    If Iginla goes (as reports from Calgary are saying he might), I'll put $50 on the Oilers. At least Tambellini seems to have picked a destination, which marks a change.

    ricki: Same production? Tanguay is past 30 and has 9 goals in 77 games. He'll come for much cheaper than $4 - I'm sure, because I honestly think he struggles to find another organization.

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  53. "Maybe people should wait to see who's wearing Oiler silks next season before calling the team a "loser org.""
    You're right, the Oilers aren't a "loser org." When a team is more than a dozen points out of second last (14 points behind the "laughable" Leafs) in the league, I believe the phrase "detritus that exists at the bottom of a Port-a-Potty org" is more accurate.
    How about a Sutter vs. Tambellini Celebrity Death Match?

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  54. Nice to see NHL Central scouting offer a player comp list for the Top 30. Seguin gets Stevie Y and Hall gets Zach Parise.

    I wonder if that's the 80s Stevie Y, or the 90s version?

    Ex-Oiler BJ gets lots of quotes in on the WHL prospects. Mostly they were happy Connolly was able to sustain production after all the injuries.

    Looks like Kabanov got nicked solely for returning to Russia.

    "We penalized Kirill Kabanov to the top of the second round," McGuire said. "His skill has him in the Connolly-Emerson Etem range. His raw skill when he's playing the game of hockey almost has him in the Hall-Seguin area."

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  55. I'll be curious to see where Euros like Taresenko slot in.

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  56. spOILer ... or maybe it's the 00's StevieY ... you know the one who will's his team to win on one good knee and is a great two/way player, great leader but only delivers 2nd/3rd line scoring punch cause that's all he has left?

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  57. ricki: Same production? Tanguay is past 30 and has 9 goals in 77 games.


    Wonder what hemsky would have with 3rd line teamates and limited pp time.

    Oh wait ask Shawn Horcoff how that has gone for him this year.

    Put tanguay-horcoff-Pisani together they would think they were in heavan or be so confused not having to cover other linemates asses.

    There is a definate difference this year but A drop from 1-2 line minutes to 3rd line and limited pp time. Has more to do with team mates.

    But hey hemsky could still get that production feeding jones and Brule on The PP and Moreau and Potulny at EV.

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  58. rickibear,

    i think you are missing something here. given how TB has struggled this year, if Tanguay was good enough to play top 2 line minutes he would be. That is, he has not earned it. He is on the down side due to attitude, lost a step, injuries or whatever.

    Maybe a decent 3rd line player, but Hemsky is a top line RW.

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  60. Mr DeBakey said... As for the loser org question, 30th didn't happen because of bad luck.

    Yes. It did.

    The Oil weren't going to be a playoff team this year, that much is abundantly clear. But anyone who doesn't think this page has played a huge role in getting us all the way to 30th must be shocked the team has won a single game all year.

    The Oilers are crap and have a lot of serious problems. But there's no story in Oiler-land even close to the import as the one of 500+ man-games lost to injury, especially given the names on that list. That's epic. And very, very, very unlucky.

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  61. Of course, if Hall turns out to be a superstar, we're going to look back at those lost man-games to injury as very, very, very lucky.

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  62. I'm with Blag Dog. Sutter has made some mistakes, but he's done a lot right. I'd give him a B+ for his career, though GM's are like Lassy. At some point they go crazy and you have to take them out behind the shed... (Staios, cough)

    He now has to rebuild, but he built the team, but they certainly should've made the playoffs this year.

    The Flames real downfall has a few root causes, obviously:

    1. Iginla has lost a small step, maybe a little earlier than should've been expected, leaving the Flames too anemic on offense.

    2. No replacement for Tanguay, Cammalleri, Huselius. Combined with 1, that creates offensive anemia. This is partly Sutter's doing, of course, but he was sort of a victim of his own team's success. Guys he brought in kept putting up big numbers playing with or behind Iginla and then asking for more money. Getting Kotalik was grasping at straws. Again with the Lassy thing.

    3. Overpay on Kiprusoff and a few others. All GM's do this, and with goalies especially. I can't think of more than one or two GM's who would've been saavy enough to let Kiprusoff go somewhere else to sign a cheaper option. Can you? Hard to fault him. At least he didn't sign Khabi.

    4. Too many knuckle draggers over the years. That's clearly his fault, but likely only a minor problem.

    On the other hand, Sutter has been good at:

    5. Moving bad contracts. He brings them in, but he ships them out too.

    6. Signing Iginla and Bouwmeester (watch fr a rebound) to good contracts. We would've let Iginla walk and we apparently didn't try with Bouwmeester.

    7. Finding good, cheap, forwards to round out the top 12. Glencross, Bourque, etc. Useful skill.

    Anyway, you have to be careful not to fall too far into results oriented evaluations. Again, I agree that Sutter seems to have lost it (Keenan, cough) but he has done some nice things during his tenure.

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  63. kris, one other item about Sutter. He admits his mistakes - maybe not all of them, but he realized soon enough that not giving Giordano a 1-way contract was a mistake.

    He kissed and made up and made the right decision for the team.

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  64. Tencer Twit....

    Nilsson is out tonight with some sort of injury and I'm hearing that Horcoff is battling something that might require a callup this weekend.

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  65. Everyone knows the Oilers suck and have for a long time. It's fun to mock Calgary because people thought they could win the cup and they suck shit, missed the playoffs, have no picks, are up against the cap, and can't even blame injuries.

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  66. Not sure if anyone was following that story about the rabbit house in Terwilliger, but apparently almost all of the rabbits had to be put down.

    Because they had a fatal and highly contagious disease called "Snuffles". It's the most adorable-sounding fatal disease I've ever heard of.

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  67. And I hate the Calgary Pseudo-Cowboy Douche-Bags more than anyone. I truly am almost as happy with them missing the playoffs than I would've been with the Oilers making it. Seriously. In fact, sometimes I think I hate the Flames more than I love the Oilers.

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  68. That's epic. And very, very, very unlucky.

    I guess it's all about perspective. The way I see the team wasn't going to win anything from G1, regardless of injuries. I remember feeling relieved when Hemsky went down, because I knew that we now had a genuine chance at drafting an impact player.

    What injuries we have had this year helped us go from picking around 10th overall to the first overall choice. As far as I'm concerned that's a pretty good run of luck.

    A quick side note to LT:

    That comment system you ran for a few days was pretty slick. I know that some people had issues, (buying a Mac then complaining about compatibility issues, funny stuff) but I wanted to chime in as someone who appreciated the interface. I liked how it maintained the same theme, the menu for logging in was more intuitive and there was no jumping to the top of the page when refreshing.

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  69. Regwald: he is a set up man. who if he shoots is a 30 goal scorer. It is hard to be productive as a set-up man for 3rd line stone hand players.

    You think decline: I think situation. If he comes in at 2M. It is worth the risk.

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  70. But anyone who doesn't think this page has played a huge role in getting us all the way to 30th must be shocked the team has won a single game all year.


    What's even worse is this page. Oh nos!

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  71. It's not like Tanguay is going to cost the moon.

    It's a low risk high reward situation. Don't spit on it. We're not giving Ales Kotalik 3,5M$ here, (Which totally confused me because they refused to give up 500 000 more for Zherdev).

    Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Penner-Gagner-Nilsson
    Potulny-Eberle-Brulé
    Stortini-Pouliot-Jones

    Seems alright. Gives space for changes or upgrades according to the game these guys furnish.

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  72. Regwald: Since the lockout Who are the best Assist wingers in the game. Minimum 100 Games
    #1 Jagr .74/gm
    #2 Alfredsson .72/gm
    #3 Hemsky .66
    #4 Kariya .65
    #5 Tanguay .62
    #6 Ovechkin .62
    #7 Whitney .61
    #8 Elias .60
    #9 Iginla .60
    #10 St. louis .60
    #11 Kane .59
    #12 Zetterberg
    #13 Sedin

    Thats a pretty elite monutain Tanguay just felloff.

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  73. anyone who doesn't think this page has played a huge role in getting us all the way to 30th must be shocked the team has won a single game all year.

    Hear hear, Icecastles. It has been a brutal run, seems like four years of it and getting worse if anything. But surely it can't continue forever.

    The team goes to 2010-11 with a core group of Hemsky-Penner-Gilbert-Whitney all under lock and key for 2 more years, all under $5 MM, and all approaching the peaks of their career curves. That's not that terrible a nucleus IMO. Add Horcoff who is still in his early 30s, and that looks to me to be an outscoring first unit. If they can stay healthy.

    The bigger health-related "If" concerns Khabibulin. That contract has us in cap jail, but it's far from impossible that he will bounce back with a solid season in '10-11, and that alone would be worth a few standings points compared to this season's debacle.

    That said, I am with LT that under the present circumstances, the three-headed monster is not The Worst Idea In the History Of The World. While end of training camp is an artifical deadline to resolve the situation, as LT says we're not running at Stanley next year anyway. The team is building, might as well build between the pipes while we're at it. There's no guarantee that Khabi's health will hold up, so why not have two guys ready to go.

    With a hat tip to Mr. Debakey, we could call the trio JDDDDDUI.

    If it were up to me (which it never is, but still, I have dreams), there would be an ironclad policy that the older man would get at least one game off per week, preferably sit it right out in street clothes. Give the kids some time to build on this year's foundation. They both received some harsh lessons at times this year, but I am moderately encouraged that both guys are better players today than they were in November. I'm frankly loathe to let one of them go without being a little more sure of which one, and I'm in the camp that thinks either would be snapped up on waivers at this point.

    The roster issues are a minor pain, but not that big of a deal. Just room for one extra forward and one D (or a swing man). A little more movement between the big club and the farm, maybe, which isn't that bad of a thing. No room for a full-time goon on the roster, but we didn't have one this year anyway. In fact this year we rarely had a 23rd man on the active, healthy roster.

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  74. I think the problem was "Too much Sutter"

    Let your schadenfreude shine!

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  75. Mark-Ryan - other than LT I probably historically the biggest Oiler optimist on the Sphere, ask any of the oldtimers. Hell I picked them to make the playoffs two of the last four years and a third year I figured them to be in the mix if things broke right.

    So sure I'm a cynic. Lowe and Tambo are destroying the franchise. Excuse me if I don't hold my breath waiting ofr them to become geniuses overnight.

    And yeah the Flames have fallen short every year but you know what?

    You can't win the Cup if you don't make the dance.

    And I'd rather have had a playoff team these past four years than what we've had which is absolutely nothing.

    Nobody hopes more than me that this squad can turn it around starting this summer. They have some quality prospects on the way and there are some nice things to like about this club too - Bruce mentioned a lot of them.

    But the Oilers seem to have had a lot of 'bad luck' these last four years. After a while you have to figure that maybe its not all bad luck. You have to make your breaks too.

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  76. I'l include myself in the optimist gang.

    But you can't look at this season reasonably and watch it as anything but a glorious mess.

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  77. $6.68 million cap hit over 5 years for a #1 D-man who has played exactly 0 minutes of playoff hockey in his 7 seasons?

    What exactly would a bad contract for Bouwmeester look like?

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  78. The Sutters may get fired for having a season which would have been the best one for the Oilers since 06.

    Lowe having a job is a disgrace.

    I wonder why D Sutter went completely off the rails this year? He didn't have a history of making idiotic trades, and then he goes and makes 3-4 of them.

    Strange.

    Going to the game tonight, taking my mom.

    Here's a stat for you.

    If the Oilers win tonight, they will finish the season only 1 game under .500 at home.

    They have played .256 hockey on the road.

    OTC said on Stauffer's show that they tried to match lines more at home, and just match D pairing on the road.

    Doesn't show in the results does it?

    Go Oilers!

    *clap,clap*

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  79. What exactly would a bad contract for Bouwmeester look like?

    When that contract was announced everyone in the media oohhhed and aaahhhddd that it wasn't 7.5/yr over a longer term.

    Sutter was praised for getting Bou "cheap"

    In retrospect not so much, but at the time it was heralded.

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  80. Tanguay is not a fit for this team. His points the last 4 years are 81, 58, 41, and 35. Notice a trend? He is going to be 31 next season and he is not going to be getting better.

    Its not like he is going to lead with his physical play either. He is averaging just over a hit every two games.

    He doesn't bring anything more than POS has and his skills (slick, soft forward) are dupicated by way too players on this team.

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  81. They have played .256 hockey on the road.

    Which includes a 5-game winning streak. 1-19-2, .091, since then.

    It gets worse before it gets better. Reflect that record in the fun house mirror that is Gary Bettman's standings, and the home team's record in the last 22 games vs. the Oil is 21-0-1, .977.

    * shudders *

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  82. To return to the first part of lowetide's post, the problem with the three headed goalie monster (aside from the fact it costs you a useful roster spot) is that it isn't a five headed or seven headed monster. Bluntly, the Oilers have terrible goaltending depth. If we want to be a good team moving forward acquiring additional goaltending help is vital. We need prospects bubbling up from below and solid AHL level goaltending so that the kids don't get beaten up every night.

    Jussi Rynnas, featured here earlier this week would certainly be a great step in the right direction. Other options would include free agents Brent Krahn (who might yet have an NHL career) or Matt Climie. These guys are sort of Tim Thomas in the making. Good at the AHL level but because of injuries and other problems not getting at bats in the NHL.

    My personal preference is the trade route. I like Florida as the target, they are immensely deep in great goaltenders. The guy to try to get would be Marc Chevrie (indisputably the best goaltender in US college hockey). However, it is more likely they'd give up Alex Salak (from the same coach as Kipper and with a truly bizarre style), or you could try for a real home run (ala Jussi Rynnas) and trade for Sergie Gayduchenko, huge, calm, well coached, may never play in North America but if he does will be a possible franchise goaltender. The amazing thing is these guys, all of whom have huge up side are Florida's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best goaltending prospects.

    However we do it, we need to address the lack of goaltending depth asap if we hope to really turn things around. When I see progress on that front I will believe we are finally on the road to recovery. You simply can't leave giant gaping wounds in your depth chart and ever hope to be good, never mind great.

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  83. The New York Rangers got a shot of defribilator.

    Hope they kick the Bruins out of playoffs =D

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  84. Powerplay stud Tanguay is going to end this season with a PPP/60 near 1.59.

    ESP/60? 1.57.

    I drafted Tanguay late in one of my pools so I watched him to start the season. He got time with Lecavalier on the first line to start the season. When he didn't look good there he got time on the second line. When he still didn't look good he was healthy scratched.

    The Tampa Bay lightning scored the 3rd fewest goals in the NHL this season. If Tanguay could still perform he'd be playing with their top offensive weapons.

    The guy might appear to have lost two steps this season, but in actuality he's been on the decline since the Flames soured on him.

    Bringing in an aging, small, soft, playmaking winger is probably the least of this team's concerns.

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  85. Free tickets again tonight. Going to buy a foam finger at the game.

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  86. Holy hell. Was looking at the standings and just noticed (sorry if it's been mentioned already) that Edmonton has actually outscored the Flames so far this season. 203GF to Calgary's 200.

    Considering we're injured and were expected to suck, they must really be a nightmare. :)

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  87. I would say good by to Khabibulin or if no one takes him of waviers bury him down in the minors. JDD and DD I think has shown enough to warrant both be here. Rember when we had Fuhr and Moog. It was a good tandem

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  88. How the hell did John Mcfarland did it to Number 15 with 50 points in 64 games? And he regressed from last year!

    Jordan Weal has double of that and more. I know size is a factor but goddamit!

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  89. Black Dog: I guess that's a fair stand to make. They sure as hell haven't inspired confidence, but I see a marked difference in philosophies from the "just squeek in" mentality of the past three years and what's going on right now.

    rickibear: I like Tanguay at >$2 million. He's one of those Lang-acquisitions that brings some dimension to the team and keeps a kid from winning a spot out of camp.

    But as a Hemsky-replacement? He'd be wholly inadequate. He was given every chance to play with Lecavalier or Stamkos, and couldn't hold the spot over Malone and Downie.

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  90. They wound up moving St.Louis to LW and moving Downie into the top 6.

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  91. I'm off to the game myself, maybe PJ Oil and I can havbe a foam-finger-wrestling contest. Enjoy the game, everyone!

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  92. Highlight of the night so far...on TSN's panel after the first period of the Leaves and Rangers, Mackenzie, Ferraro and MacT had to vote for their play of the year between a save made by Brian Elliott, Stamkos goal where he batted the puck out of the air while on his rear end, and Sugartits goal where he batted it out of mid-air. 2 votes for Schremp, including MacTavish. He was very complimentary of Schremps skill level.

    In a related story, HF Boards just imploded.

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  93. So...what happened to the "win and you're in" mentality we were supposed to be following?

    Deslauriers starting sucks. I want to see Dubnyk.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Hey, their guy made a couple saves.

    Why can't ours do that?

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  95. DG, rebound control is one of the many problems JDD has, including positioning, a bad glove hand and concentration.

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  96. Dubnyk please.

    I'm sure PJO and Bruce are enjoying these freebies.

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  97. Oh, he also has a habit of taking a looooooooong time to go down. It's like he's in slow motion sometimes.

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  98. I honestly have no idea what the Oil are trying to do in their own end of the ice. Pisani and Moreau both go down low there, Horcoff up high, the puck goes across to JLM, Horc is clearly surprised that nobody was there.

    It's bizarre.

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  99. Please, please let this be the final time I see Deslauriers and Strudwick on the Oilers.

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  100. "You can't talk enough about the job that Jason Strudwick has done. I mean in terms of the amount of games he has played."

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  101. Chorney in front of the net on the 3rd goal, file it under 'even more evidence'

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  102. JDD missed the memo about Calgary being eliminated last night.

    Seguin and Plymouth eliminated tonight despite Plymouth goalie making over 70 saves. Final score 3-2 in OT.

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  103. Don't think JDD gets claimed. The team would have to keep him on the pro roster and he clearly can't be trusted.

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  104. And now the idiot announcers say so much credit should go to Stridwick for taking on a bigger role and soldiering on.
    Do these guys watch the games they call? Unbelievable!
    Hall or Seguin should have to wear No. 43 next year so fans can always remember what had to be withstood in order to get a potentially decent hockey player.

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  105. feed anyone (so I can watch the debacle from the discomfort of the airport)?

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  106. If only Tom Gilbert played like this all season long.

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  107. That looked a lot more Scorecoff than Whiffcoff.

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  108. http://atdhe.net/watch-live-hockey.php?i=13

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  109. Jon K:

    Don't take this the wrong way but I didn't believe you when you said the Plymouth goalie made 70 saves. I just couldn't find that possible.

    I now know better. Jesus H Christ. They're worse at defensive coverage than the Oilers!

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  110. http://www.dailyfunsports.com/2010/04/colorado-v-edmonton.html

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  111. So this Plymouth goalie that just made 70 saves in a game...he's draft eligible.

    Hope the magnificent bastard was in attendance tonight, and throws a late-round pick at potential like that.

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  112. Dorito: Goaled in 18 games going
    5-9-0 with ,909 if you're speaking of Wedgewood (,944 for playoffs), if for Matt Hackett, he's wild property.

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  113. Tanguay is too old to sign to a contract, and not remotely physical enough.

    The Oilers forward free agent acquisitions should be tough minute physical 3rd line types in their mid-to-late twenties.

    If it's me, I sign both Dubnyk and Deslauriers to one-year onw-way contracts. Dubnyk is the backup, and I risk waivers on Deslauriers. Alternatively, I trade Deslauriers.

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  114. FPB:

    I meant wedgewood.

    Also, if Seguin becomes our property, he's going back to Plymouth next year if I'm boss.

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  115. Dorito: Even if he's NHL ready? Do you let him have his 9 games?

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  116. That pass by 77 to 27 was unreal. A quick look and a flick of the wrist and hard on the tape.

    ADD has a knack of putting rebounds right where they shouldn't go.

    41 kinda drifts around the Dzone with no real purpose.

    Thw woman sitting next to me has to be at least 280lbs, and I'm not small, but I lost the arm rest war by default, she spills into 1/3 of my seat.

    Nice cheer for 10 after the goal, least amount of boos I've heard all year when his name is announced.

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  117. theCaptain has been a lot better since he's been on a line with Horcov and Pisani. I don't know if it's because he is now surrounded by guy's he respects or because they are vets just like him but he hasn't been taking the stupid penalties and he has been willing to share the puck again. With that being said, I would still like to see him elsewhere next season.

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  118. FPB:

    I don't think he's NHL ready. All the scouting reports I've read on him say he's the type to "make players around him better". Why then, did he not do this in the previous four games against Windsor.

    Yes, the Spitfires are a hell of a team, but Seguin didn't step up. He got swept, and couldn't put up a single point.

    He's not yet dominating elite CHL talent. And as such, should go back. His stats implied he's got good offensive talent, but so did Rob Schremp at his age.

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  119. Dorito: Yeah but sometimes, a summer of workout does wonder.

    Look at our pal Brulé.

    I'd prefer to evaluate the situation in TC, rather than on Junior only. But heh, if he's not ready, no reason to shove him in.

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  120. I think the fact that not a single team wanted him might have woken up Moreau a little bit. That was humbling.

    Gilbert has had a terrific run since the deadline. Closing on thirty points and solid in his own end. He and Whitney are certainly a start.

    Mark-Ryan - believe me pal, it takes a lot to get me negative about something but these clowns take the cake. If they had decided to rebuild properly, which is really what the Smyth trade should have signified then, then we'd have a shedload of prospects and picks. They would have had the Penner picks (and the big guy is really something now but where will he be when this all comes together) plus whatever they could have picked up for any vets they could have moved. The team would have been even worse than it has been but at least they would have had a rebuild in mind.

    Its suddenly the plan but they stumbled into it. The Heatley pursuit and Khabibulin signing showed they figured they would be in it, you don't do that unless you believe that. In a way their hand has been forced by the injuries into finally doing the job properly.

    But if I were Katz I'd fire Lowe and his monkey Steve in a second. They wrecked it and now they get to try and fix it? Not too bright.

    Anyhow enough bitterness. I'm glad to see Penner and Gilbert and even the poor old Russian finishing strongly. Its been an awful year. here's hoping for better times. It can get worse, it can always get worse, but hope springs eternal.

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  121. That's why I think you bring Comrie back. He doesn't do 12 different things, but the one thing he does is just extremely valuable. Nothing play and it ends up a goal.

    Looks like that damn Russian (the "Vulture") tipped it.

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  122. Anyone have any idea why my Bell Express Vu receiver suddenly won't give out sound?

    The TV volume works fine (tested a DVD), as far as I can tell everything is plugged in as it was last night, and I tried turning it off and on.

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  123. And that's why I think Cogliano should be kept.

    Opportunistic hitter and he's finally playing like he wants to. Plus his speed will always keep me coming back to his bandwagon.

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  124. I agree with the sentiment that comrie will be brought back as a serviceable veteran (mentoring the younger skilled small men!?)

    weak stat line tho, but also a rough year with mono and such..

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  125. What model receiver is it PDO..?

    Is it a 2700..?(old school)

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  126. PDO: I see what you're mad about, but really, you're missing nothing.

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  127. GF:

    Well, the problem is moreso that I don't have the sound for ANYTHING, and my GF won't be too happy if that's the case tomorrow night.

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  128. The 2700's had a setting buried in the menu's that defaulted the sound to the VCR/Aux input(handing the volume control to the stereo)
    No sound was a common FAQ.

    Perhaps the 4100's have a similar menu item(not sure)-you'll have to troll through the menus.

    You can always try unplugging the unit completely for 5 seconds and then plug it in again.

    After that's it's cabling.
    After that it's calling Bangalore.

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  129. PDO: What did you do? You buggered it up? She watches maybe 10 minutes of television a week and somehow it doesn't work for her show?

    Man, PDO. Pretty selfish. :-)

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  130. LT:

    You & I both know the real problem is that happy endings rely on keeping her happy ;).

    ... are they really keeping that as Comrie's goal?

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  131. 10+ years in the IT industry and it's almost always rebooting the damn thing or jiggling the cable.

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  132. Jason Strudwick had a strong sequence there. Three poor passes, never in a position to do one damn thing and overthrows his receiver so badly on a 5-foot breakout there's a turnover.

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  133. See? He's so small you forget to cover him.

    Andrew Cogliano, 3-time 10 goal scorer.

    Shut-up, it's a milestone.

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  134. Good for Cogs. I hope he stays, but he's one of those guys I'll cheer for no matter where he ends up.

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  135. I didn't watch much of the second period. Did Ling-Ling do something to merit only one 3rd period shift thusfar?

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  136. JDD looking for his nickels and dimes again.

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  137. Its games like this that make me question the sanity of anyone who would trade Dustin Penner for anything, especially on this team..



    Can single-handedly take over a game?
    Check

    Signed to a reasonable contract?
    Check

    May not have reached his potential yet? (based on age and less playing experience, esp. as a power forward, this seems a reasonable possibility)
    Check

    Makes the players around him better?
    Check

    He's one of three players on this team that you don't trade, regardless of what people offer you. If you want to build a winning community here in Edmonton, you need Dustin Penner.

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  138. Deslauriers is jumping jack flash out there. Great for a lead singer, not so much for a goalie. That last sequence at the end of regulation bordered on comedy.

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  139. He's one of three players on this team that you don't trade

    The other two are Cogliano and Smid, right?

    :)

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  140. Perfect timing for that Overtime records graphic RSW.

    Fucking.Brilliant.

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  141. I like Gilbert-Whitney. It's a nice tandem moving forward with one of them playing the role of the Neidermayer-rover in the offensive zone.

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  142. betcha Kevin Quinn was begging for that one.

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  143. Holy shit. That's how you dominate the offensive zone. Amazing cycle, and mobile defense.

    Did Whitney-Gilbert leave the ice in OT?

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  144. Where's this team been all season?

    [conspiracyfont]

    Throwing games on purpose as per instructions from the "braintrust", in order to get a lottery pick.

    [/conspiracyfont]

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  145. Chicago and SJ will be battling hard to play Colorado in the first round..

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  146. What could we theoretically get on the trade market for Penner? I know he's basically our only forward who has ever managed to touch a basketball rim, but if the return's right, his value might never be higher.

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  147. You better be waving that foam finger PJO..:)

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  148. So I had a saw him good theory that Cogliano has been very good in the latter portion of the season. By Dennis' count on MC's site, he is 85-89 in terms of EV scoring chances over the last 20 games (not including this one). Behind the net suggests mid-tier competition and mid-tier teammates. Is this good for a 22 year old player with 12 points in those 20 games? He is +2 in this time from a quick scan.

    This is a player I'd keep on most teams, though I see the argument that Edmonton might not be the best possible town. Forget POS, forget Nilsson, keep as many kids away as possible (unless they tear the cover off in camp). I'd keep Cogliano for at least one more season.

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  149. It was a nice result-last home game and all.Fun to watch once you got past the first 10 minutes.

    I'm not sure about the style JDD plays...it's like he's been Taser'd.

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  150. Gerta: lol. And yes, that's exactly it. On the nuts.

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  151. I think I'm falling into the category of being falling out of the JDD camp and into the Dubnyk camp. I don't like the fact that shit seems to seep through Dubnyk, but at least he doesn't seem as spazzy in the net, I think the coaches can work with that.

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  152. I don't think either of the goalies get claimed off waivers-as someone mentioned earlier they would have to fit them on their roster,and I'm not sure either of these 2 beat out any of the other 29 #2's.

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  153. Damn Russian? I was castigated for saying something about those from the Great Mother Country.

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  154. Cogliano looks to be developing some of Ryan Callahan's tenacity to go along with his knack for finding mesh. Just a gem of a player.

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  155. Damn Russian = Horcov = Horcoff

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  156. Cogliano has been on my trade list for most of the season,not because he's a poor player,but because he would bring the most back in a trade.His willingness to mix it up the last 20 games or so sure makes it a tough call though.

    He did look good tonight.

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  157. JDD is like last weeks lottery ticket that didn't win - keeping it is pointless. The last guy I spent this much time arguing about was Brad Winchester - and I see he's made the all-star team again. Of course traktor shows up with his latest stats driveby - wanna try that little SP comparison between ADD and DD since the Olympics? Didn't think so ;)

    Anyway - thank god this season's almost over. But as others have said - Lowe and his puppet made an absolute shambles of the season - and the last thing I want to see is those clowns smiling and making the #1 pick. Katz better grow a pair and clean house in the mgmt suite or they will just keeping on finding ingenious ways to show how embarrassingly bad they are at their jobs.

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  158. Sutters get fired this time, maybe?

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  159. Did they win?

    Moreau with another brace of goals?

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  160. I was castigated for saying something about those from the Great Mother Country.

    Mood of the masses!

    My moral test involves asking people if they own american funds with HMO stock.

    Michael vick profiting off the death of dogs or People profiting off the death of childrewn with HMO.

    I know which is worse

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  161. Was at the game last night - nice effort, exciting OT, last game of the season....it deserves this.

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  162. Where was this knack for finding twine during the 3-goals-in-60-games slide a bit earlier this season?

    Cogliano and Brule are looking VERY similar - it's one of the obvious redundancies on this roster right now. One of them, but not both, is going to get dealt this summer.

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  163. wanna try that little SP comparison between ADD and DD since the Olympics? Didn't think so ;)

    All 9 games?

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  164. The last guy I spent this much time arguing about was Brad Winchester - and I see he's made the all-star team again.

    Ah Winchester. Last year he was proof that MacT can't coach kids, while some of us muttered S%. This year? Haven't heard too much about him.

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  165. Oilman - yes the sample size is small - but that's the point - DD's entire season sample size is small. It is still unclear what his upside is but there are some promising signs - many more than JDD had at the same age. As for JDD we pretty much know what he is now - average backup with significant technique issues that make him wildly inconsistent. Replacement value is very low so why bother continuing to evaluate and waste development time/space.

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  166. @AsiaOil.
    wanna try that little SP comparison between ADD and DD since the Olympics? Didn't think so ;)

    Oilman: All 9 games?

    Exactly. I mean this is what I'm talking about skewing stats - you're tossing out the seasonal stats for a 9 game trial which you think makes DD look better than JDD.

    I'm not saying that JDD is necessarily better than DD - but taking the season in its entirety, he has been noticeably better than DD - despite his tasered floppy style. DD, by comparison, positions well, but somehow has holes in his armor that allow a surprising amount of shots through. But you could very well be right that DD may be the better goalie in the longterm.

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  167. Master Lok...I'm not saying DD is better than JDD - not at all. All I'm saying is that there is a very high likelihood that JDD is nothing more than an inconsistent backup who may eventually turn into a decent backup. You do not waste development time and effort cultivating that outcome because you can buy it on the UFA market any summer you want for even less than what JDD makes.Replacement value of JDD is very very low.

    Dubnyk may or may not turn out to be better - but he is is ahead of JDD's development curve and his technique does not have as many fundamental holes to address. That's the reason you keep DD and cut loose or trade JDD - you know what you have with the latter but the former's upside is not entirely clear yet. FOcus you development on the guy with potential upside higher than backup. Unless you think like Tambo and need a bit more time to "evaluate" ;)

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