- Boxcars: 82gp, 10-18-28
- Shots: 139
- Plus Minus: -5
- Corsi (Rel): 1.5 (6th among F's)
- GF/GA ON: 41-46
- 5x5/60: 1.39 (7th among F's)
- 5x4/60: 2.55 (10th among F's)
- Quality of Competition: 7th toughest among F's
- Quality of Teammates: 4th best among F's
- FO %: 43% in 379 FO's
- Offensive Zone Start FO %: 49.1 (3rd easiest among F's)
- Cap Hit: $1,133,333 (RFA)
- What do these numbers tell us? Cogliano played in relatively calm waters for a player his age and experience. He did have a denver boot to drag around all year but he wasn't alone in that area among the Oilers F's (the club gave new meaning to "left wing lock" after Penner on the depth chart and it impacted every line). His 5x5/60 performance was down year-over-year but the entire roster experienced a dip so I think it is important to keep it in context. Cogliano's impressive shooting percentage from his first two seasons fell to earth, predictably. His season offensively is not as bad as it has been portrayed in some circles, but after three seasons you'd like to see more.
- How Could these numbers be better? Cogliano is a busy player but (in both offensive and defensive zones) often accomplishes very little. He's a loose cannon as opposed to being a player who finds areas to be useful. It's actually incredible how very often Andrew Cogliano is out of position when the heart of a play actually happens. A late-season flourish saved his offensive numbers somewhat, but the kid spent much of the year in a fog. I think he might have missed MacT's tendency to find a role for a player and stick him there (the kid line) but don't want to turn this into another MacTavish post.
- Is he going to be a complete player? You'd think so, but the evidence so far indicates Cogliano is going to be one of those people who gets one year's experience many times over.
- His health is a positive. Almost alone among the small F's, Cogliano can certainly play healthy (his nickname should be "82") but he's in danger of being traded with so many small forwards in similar roles on this roster and the GM's desire to add size and grit.
- Is size that important? The Oilers need young guys who can make a differenece. At this point he is neither. I'm not trying to pick on him, hell he's the guy I spent last summer defending re: the Heatley deal. But last summer I talked about not trading a guy before you knew who he was, and this season went a long way to giving us the complete resume.
- What about a new kid line? Seguin-Cogliano-Nilsson? I'm not sure that benefits the Oilers or Seguin, since the club has better options for linemates (should they choose Seguin). Cogliano arrived in the NHL at age 20 and is basically playing the same role now as he did opening night. I'm not sure that is a player you use to make the Seguin transition go smoothly.
- Are they going to trade him? My guess is yes, and that on another team (with fewer players who duplicated his skill set) Cogliano will have a solid career. I'm cheering for him.
- How important is he to the organization? Not very. Among the Oiler forwards, I'd rate Penner, Hemsky, Gagner, Horcoff, Brule and Seguin/Hall ahead of him in terms of "keepers" and they could trade Cogs and sign Comrie and be farther ahead in terms of 10-11's season. He has trade value and at this point that's probably the route to go.
By The Numbers
- 07-08 5x5 per 60m: 2.28
- 08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.69
- 09-10 5x5 per 60m: 1.39
By The Numbers
- 07-08 5x4 per 60m: 2.52
- 08-09 5x4 per 60m: 3.39
- 09-10 5x4 per 60m: 2.55
Performance in 2009-10: 82gp, 10-18-28 (.341)
Projected Role in 2010-11: Top 9F for Toronto or Ottawa
you think burke has a soft spot for cogs? i know the TO media does.
ReplyDeletecan we get a 4/5 dman for him?
I'd hate to see my #13 wearing TO white instead of ours, but that said...if we could get Jerry D'Amigo for him, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteI think the Oilers will shop Souray and Cogs in hopes of getting a solid NHL defender. I also think the Leafs need to sell hope and since they don't have a draft pick this summer, a draft day deal bringing in a hometown kid will play well with the foreheads who run the media in the big Smoke.
ReplyDeleteWas it two years ago that Cherry blew his stack at the Leafs for drafting Rask instead of Cogliano?
ReplyDeleteOh Leafs, even when you do the right thing you blow it.
Schitzo:
ReplyDeleteI believe it was Bob McKenzie actually. His son played junior-A with Cogs.
Souray and Cogliano for a solid Toronto Dman?
ReplyDeleteI'd be surprised if Schenn and Phaneuf are possible. Kaberle doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.
Komisarek? Finger? Exelby? Son of a Gunnarson?
I sit in the same corner here on Cogs. I'd hate to see him go and really thought this was going to be his break out year. It didn't happen.
ReplyDeleteThat said, his late finish (nice numbers the last 14 games or so) was I think an attempt to showcase him for a trade. No way he gets on Pennser's line next year (or does he?) and so he's the sweetner to get rid of Souray.
Book it (unfortunately).
I think the Oilers will need to add in a player for the Souray deal to happen (unless Sather somehow manages to save his job).
ReplyDeleteWhat about Ottawa? Any good D available there?
"What about Ottawa? Any good D available there?"
ReplyDeleteHa!
Andy Sutton? ; ]
Sutton is UFA. What about Brian Lee? Is he any good? Came up the same way Chorney did, but he looks like a defenseman whenever I see him.
ReplyDeleteCogs for Lee? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
hmm.. Souray and Cogliano for Komisarek.
ReplyDeleteKomisarek caught a lot of flack earlier in the season for underperforming, before going out with a season ending injury.
basically, the trade swaps two injured defensemen. Komisarek is younger, tougher and more defensive than Souray. he also has a better contract. Toronto gets Cogliano, but Edmonton already has enough Coglianos.
i'm probably way off-base, but it sounds like a reasonable core to a potential trade, if not the trade itself.
Souray for Roszival makes a lot of sense, I think.
ReplyDeleteIf you can tie in Cogliano and someone like Dubinsky, Girardi or Callahan, you're laughing as an Oiler fan...
Maybe I'm out to lunch, but I don't see Cogliano as having much value. I'd think that what we'd get would be the same as what we gave up: a project with pedigree.
ReplyDelete(I also think Souray's trade value is negative, but I could be wrong about that too.)
Cogliano at this point seems like the classic case of a player who needs to start anew with another team. He and the coaching staff seem at odds concerning whether he'll play going forward as a centre or as a winger. By most reports the guy is set on playing at centre, despite overwhelming evidence that he is incapable of playing that position in the NHL. He looks lost most of the time and we can probably conclude at this point that he's incapable of learning the positional aspects of centre. Desjardins' also recently looked at the best and worst faceoff takers since 1997. Guess who came in dead last?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/3/22/1382835/best-and-worst-faceoff-takers
The guy needs to get moved and have a new coaching staff affirm what the current coaching staff has no doubt been trying to tell him for a few seasons. Hopefully he still has some value around the league. If we could move him straight across for a younger NHL defenseman that'd be ideal in my mind.
As a completely unrelated note: I can't stand Tomas Plekanec. The guy is a whiney, dirty player who doesn't seem to get much flack despite a series of slewfoots this season along with some other questionable play. It'll be interesting to see where he lands in the offseason. Part of me hopes he signs in Calgary for 5.5+ and falls apart in the West.
ReplyDeleteHe's this generation's Mario Tremblay. Agreed.
ReplyDeleteFYI... Staples has a great post talking with Chad Moreau how having Pronger back in 2006 contributed to having guys in better shape and fitness during the year. It's a great read and hope the Oilers may look at revisiting their in season fitness program.
ReplyDeletehttp://communities.canada.com/EDMONTONJOURNAL/blogs/hockey/archive/2010/04/19/chad-moreau-says-pronger-led-the-oilers-in-fitness-but-coaches-failed-to-focus-on-it-during-season.aspx
I'd be surprised if Schenn and Phaneuf are possible. Kaberle doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.
ReplyDeleteKomisarek? Finger? Exelby? Son of a Gunnarson?
Beauchemin.
2 years left on his deal @ 3.8 cap.
That being said,I think it's the Rangers and Rosival for Souray.Who knows if Cogs would be part of that.
ReplyDeleteCogliano for Fistric straight up.
ReplyDeleteCogliano's never going to be anywhere near an impact NHL player.
They say Aural Joliat had it. Everyone agrees Theo Fleury had it.
ReplyDeleteWhat is it? The ability to be a small man in a big man's league. Does Cogliano have the ability to play first or even second line minutes on a good team, in the playoffs, right now?
Beauchemin's advanced +/- rating is -0.43 from a qualcomp of 0.082 [highest on TOR] ..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=8§ion=qualcomp&mingp=&mintoi=&team=TOR&pos=
to Souray's -0.98 at 0.022 qualcomp.
i've seen some TOR fans slating Beauchemin in with Phaneuf as the team's top defensive pairing, so i find it unlikely that TOR would move him while taking on Souray's salary. Komisarek seems like a less risky proposition for them, although i agree that Beauchemin would be better for EDM.
unless i've got the relative player values here completely wrong, in which case i would happily be corrected.
I agree Souray to TO is doubtful-they've already got a ton of money tied up on the back end.
ReplyDeleteLove to see Fistric in an Oilers uni.
Its too bad for Cogs. He's just stuck in the wrong place at the wrong time. Cogs and/or Souray will bring in the #3/4 Dman the oilers will be looking for.
ReplyDeleteListening to Gregor's show today, they comparing Eberle to Comrie which kind of startled me in a lot of ways. I hope Eberle being a clutch player comes more to the forefront than it has for Comrie.
Danger Man: I don't believe "clutch" is sustainable. 99 was great in big games because he was great in all games.
ReplyDeleteLike most of the posters here I think it likely we are looking at moving Souray and Cogs together.
ReplyDeleteThe obvious targets do seem to be Toronto, the New York Rangers, and Dallas.
However, the team with the most need, and no bad blood with our management, is the Islanders. Also cap room. They need scoring, they need a backup goaltender, and they need a ton of help on the back end. Enter Cogs and Souray.
Now they have no defenceman we'd want. So how about their 1st round draft pick this year (#4 overall). Clearly we'd likely be adding pieces (Nash or Poo or JFJ) but still it seems the most high value trade to me.
I'm not in love with the draft choice, not even sure who I'd pick, but there are some very good 3/4 and 5/6 defencemen available by free agency this year who combined would cost us less than Souray.
TOR wants to drop salary to pick up UFAs, to i'm all wrong about any potential for taking on Souray.
ReplyDeleteFistric looks good though, and DAL has more cap space.
Teams with more cap space than the Oilers:
ATL
COL
NYI
STL
PHO
TBL
SAN
WAS
ANA
DAL
DET
NAS
CAR
NJD
LAK
moving salary to teams other than these would be extremely difficult.
Striatic: For what's it's worth, the buzz in Toronto seems to suggest that they think the defense is set. In his end of season address Burke suggested that they are happy going into next season with the guys they have, on the assumption that Komi is healthy. Then again, Burke's an active GM on the trade front so who knows whether they stand pat or not. Forward depth is certainly a major issue for them.
ReplyDeleteI would think that generally Nashville is a better trading partner on paper. They have an equal paucity of forwards, but unlike Toronto they have an abundance of young defensemen on the cusp and in the lineup. I wonder if sending them two skilled forwards (Cogliano, Nilsson, O'Sullivan) might be good enough to tempt them to move Franson. He's looking for a significant pay raise this summer but is still rough around the edges after a few pro seasons. They've got Ellis turning pro for next year and Blum looks like a worldbeater in the AHL so that also enter into their decision-making process.
O'Sullivan and Nilsson have minimal to no trade value.
ReplyDeleteAt best, one could probably get a similar useless hockey player with a big contract.
The best solution for O'Sullivan and Nilsson is to buy them out. It saves $3 million actual dollars, which can pay for a third line centre for two years.
As far as the TO defense goes, I'd think Burke would trade you Finger right frickin now. But yeah, other than that they're set.
ReplyDeleteI think clutch scoring may exist in hockey and we just can't see it.
ReplyDeleteFor those of you who are really into sports stats, I want to point you to Phil Birnbaum's brilliant blog
http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/
Phil reviews all the literature on sports stats and gives great summaries with critical analysis.
You have to check out his post (Stumbling on Wins: is there really little difference between goalies?)
Lowetide, you might want to read his posts from March on clutch hitting and clutchness. They made me think, as I said above, that we may just not be able to see clutchness in hockey as distinct from seasonal play. Then I was reading Wayne Winston's Mathletics and came across his analysis of Tony Perez's clutch hitting. It certainly suggests a method we might use (though it would be a lot fo work initially) to decide if a player was a clutch scorer or not.
Godot, doesn't buying them out actually cost you cap space in the second year?
ReplyDeletespOILer ... I think Burke would "give away to a good home", the Finger contract ... lol
ReplyDeleteor maybe if Burke gives up a 2nd round draft pick, someone will take him away ... ala, the Moreau comments originated out of T.O. at the deadline.
ReplyDeleteLowetide: If instead of being traded away Gretzky's Oilers were kept together, old time style like the 1956-60 Habs, how many more cups do you think they'd win?
ReplyDelete3-4 is my estimate.
You know,
ReplyDeleteif you're playing puck bucks (like moneyball)
you'd give away Cogs to get rid of Souray
you'd throw in a 2nd rounder to get rid of Moreau
you'd throw in a 3rd rounder to get rid of Patrick O'Sullivan (or even a second if you had to)
you'd resign Pisani for under a million
you'd sign a couple of cheap per hit players (that is my new stat...who cost the least to lay havoc upon the opposition) like Shaone Morrisson and Christoph Schubert
there is no way your points per dollar spent doesn't go up, way up
//Godot, doesn't buying them out actually cost you cap space in the second year?//
ReplyDeleteI said ACTUAL dollars. Actual dollars that can be used to pay for a 3rd line centre for two years.
Buying out Nilsson and O'Sullivan saves $3 million ACTUAL dollars, and costs about $800-900K in cap space for two years.
So a third line centre for 2 years @ $1.5 per season plus the buyout of Nilsson and O'Sullivan costs roughly the exact same amount of actual dollars and the same amount of cap dollars, just distributed slightly differently.
i.e. One turns Nilsson and O'Sullivan into an actual useful player for nothing but actual dollars and actual cap dollars that have already been spent.
Off the top of my head approximately:
ReplyDeleteO'Sullivan: ACTUAL $2.3 million CAP $2.8 million
Nilsson ACTUAL $2.5 million CAP $2.0 million
=====
Total next year ACTUAL $4.6 million CAP $4.8 million
vs.
Buyout of Nilsson and O'Sullivan and signing Malhotra for 2 years at $1.5 miillion
first year
Malhotra ACTUAl $1.5 million CAP $1.5 million
buyout hit ACTUAL $1.6 million CAP $900 thousand
second year
Malhotra ACTUAL $1.5 million CAP $1.5 million
buyout hit ACTUAL nil CAP $800 thousand
Total ACTUAL $4.6 million CAP $4.7
i.e one can sign a 3rd line centre for 2 years at $1.5 million from buyout savings with no net cost in actual dollars or cap dollars.
Nothing better that I like than seeing Ryan Smyth score on the canucks in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteWould Detroit deal Cogliano for a defender that could be had for free via free agency?
ReplyDeleteThat would be pretty horrible asset management.
thanks for the additional information jon
ReplyDeleteok .. so of teams with more cap space than the oilers, here are the teams with the best goals against per game. teams who -hypothetically- could be feeling strong enough defensively to trade for a more offensive package like Souray+Cogliano:
NJD 1
PHO 2
DET 3
SAN 4
LAK 5
STL 6
NAS 7
of these teams, which stand out as potential trading partners? STL does to me, and NAS as jon k mentions.
who are our potential trading partners here?
Beauchemin is a warrior I'd be happy to have him.
ReplyDeleteWhat we are seeing here, is that players can have a negative value. That is in order to get rid of them you have to sacrifice something. In the case of buyouts it is some cash in return for getting rid of the contract. With Souray and Cogs it is a useful player you are giving up. In my example of Moreau and O'Sullivan it is draft picks.
ReplyDeleteThe obvious point is that in the game of puck bucks we have made some very bad value moves (lets ignore what the players have done on the ice). The question is can we quantify how bad and what amount of cost we should be prepared to pay to unload the contract?
Courtesy of David Staples true plus minus we should be able to get an approximation of which player was repsonsible for what portion of our points (or who cost us the most).
Let's do three players as examples, Dustin Penner, Sheldon Souray and Robert Nilsson.
If we then compare the points produced, sort of like runs created in baseball, to league average points produced (ie. number of points (92) divided by 20 or 4.6) we get a ratio
points produced by player/4.6 = Z
then we multiply that by league average cap hit per player (roughly $2,500,000) to see what the players true cap hit should be
So Penner got 44 true + points out of a team 149 or 28.18% of the total. We got 62 points so Penner produced 17.47of those points. 17.47/4.6 = 3.798 X $2,500,000 = $9,495,434 dollars. Trading him given his $4,250,000 dollar cap hit means we would have to get almost four average players back to win the value side of that trade.
Nilsson was +7 so
7/149 X 62 = 2.914
2.914/4.6 = .633
.633 X $2,500,000 = $1,583,695
So with a cap hit of $2,000,000 we should buy him out or trade him as long as it costs us no more than $416,304.
Souray is a tougher nut, essentially we came up 30 points short of the league average of 92 and we had 116 true minuses so Souray was
13/116 X 30 points of bad
He cost us 3.36 points during his brief season.
so he is 3.36/4.6 points of bad = .730
so (.730 X 2,500,000) = -$1,826,086
So we would need to give some team around ($1,826,086 + $2,500,000 = $4,326,086) worth of value to get rid of him. This is why trading when a player has the most value is critical. Cogs is only worth $3,160,603 dollars so we would need to throw in Nilsson just to get back an average player.
I get that this is a horrible simplification but it gives some idea of what trades are possible and what other roster moves make sense.
ReplyDeleteSo if we apply that to Nashville and say we are sending Souray and Cogs there the best we are going to do is getting David Legwand and Kevin Klein back. Let Souray play a few games at the beginning of next season and show he still has game and we might be able to pull Franson for the same package (provided Cogs doesn't regress any more and Franson doesn't continue to improve).
We are better to wait.
Day has not happened where Poile (NAS) is going to overpay for an aging defenseman who's going to miss more games than he'll play. He's not a stupid GM. He's a small market GM who knows how to keep his team competitive and that doesn't happen with Souray.
ReplyDeleteSouray makes more than Webber (4.5 mil) and Sutter (3.5 mil) so you can lay that one to rest.
Best hope is a Dallas or NYR for a trading partner.
Linnaeus, no way in Hades the Islanders trade the 4th overall for any combination of Souray, Cogliano, Pouliot, JFJ, Nilsson, O'Sullivan et al.
ReplyDeleteYou want that high pick from them you're looking at the very least a package involving players like Brule, Eberle, Svensson.
Also why bother buying out the contracts when they all expire in a season anyway? The team's not going to win anything next season so might as well just let them play the string out, let them walk at the end of the season (with no impact to the following season) and grab another top 10 draft pick.
uni is already asking next year's team to mail it in ;-)
ReplyDeleteand linnaeus, I know you were speaking english there, but I've no idea what it meant. Probably something useful though.
When we are looking at trades, the best starting point is to look at who actually could use a Souray, rather than speculating on who you want back. Which is why places like Tor, Nash/small Am'n markets are out. NYR, Dal seem like the best bets, but you have to wonder if a new GM in Atl might see Souray's ability to be the new Bouwmeester of the Anemic Division. Not saying he would want the contract, but if he didn't have to give up anything useful (2nd rounder and prospect) would it be worth it? Especially if you use the savings to hire a Hamhuis.
Burke seems to have a hard on for Beauchemin, no way that deal is happening. And, as mentioned already, I wouldn't expect many changes to TOR's defense. Nashville and NYR seem like good partners (love Nashville's D and prospects), but can't see Poile making a move involving Souray.
ReplyDeletewe can take salary back in a Souray deal if we also get a young asset.
ReplyDeleteAn example is Souray + Brule to Montreal for Hammerlick + a 1st/prospect
Another possible destination is the Islanders as Souray has a 5.4 mill cap hit but only a 4.5 mill salary. the Isles are in a struggle to hit the cap floor so this helps them a lot.
maybe Souray for a 2nd?
If you all want a tough young Edmonton d-man so much, go get Johnny Boychuk from Boston. I would've said this before last night's crushing hit.
ReplyDeletewhat about STL?
ReplyDeletemaybe they take Souray because of nostalgia for a defenseman with a cannon, and because despite their excellent goals against, they want more offense to help push them into playoff position?
grasping at straws here.
My comment is a day late but I'm still in the Cogliano camp. Unless the return was of value, I would not get rid of Cogs for the sake of Cogliano. I still think he has upside and potential - he just needs more time, coaching to "get it".
ReplyDeletePouliot for example, seems to have "gotten it".
On the other side, I'm all for getting rid of Nilsson and O'Sullivan.