07-08 5x5/60 (Desjardins)
- Horcoff 2.59
- Nilsson 2.37
- Hemsky 2.36
- Cogliano 2.28
- Brodziak 2.09
- Glencross 1.97
- Gagner 1.96
- Pisani 1.55
- Reasoner 1.46
- Penner 1.34
- Stortini 1.24
- Stoll 0.76
08-09 5x5/60 (Desjardins)
- Hemsky 2.08
- Stortini 1.76
- Penner 1.71
- Cogliano 1.69
- O'Sullivan 1.69
- Gagner 1.69
- Pouliot 1.67
- Brodziak 1.62
- Horcoff 1.59
- Moreau 1.52
- Reddox 1.43
- Kotalik 1.38
- Nilsson 1.22
09-10 5x5/60 (Desjardins)
- Penner 2.46
- Brule 2.36
- Potulny 1.65
- Gagner 1.56
- Nilsson 1.49
- Horcoff 1.40
- Cogliano 1.36
- Jacques 1.26
- O'Sullivan 1.26
- Comrie 1.21
- Jones 1.14
- Stortini 1.08
- Moreau 0.88
Potulny, Gagner and Nilsson had stronger seasons than one might think based on glancing at the 5x5/60 number. Remember, this was a team that couldn't break out, make a pass or score for love nor money so that the end of year totals look worse than they probably should just based on normal performance and luck. Play this season again and have even half of the veterans healthy and I think you can make an argument that Gagner's 1.56 this season is more impressive than the superior number of one year ago.
Horcoff's numbers have been off for two seasons now, owing mostly (imo) to the fact that he's become something of a specialty player (own zone faceoffs 46.1) and a de facto checker.
Based on the numbers, I'd say we can count Penner and Brule as having outstanding offensive seasons in this narrow view; Potulny, Gagner and Nilsson had average seasons (which could be considered a positive on this club); Horcoff and Cogliano are south of that, we'll label them uneven and have a closer look at the other indicators. Jacques and O'Sullivan were poor, we're going to allow that Comrie had some health and injury issues but suggest that his season won't get him a pay raise. Stortini, Jones and Moreau are depth players and their numbers, while low, aren't unreasonable considering the state of the hockey club during the 09-10 season. Stortini doesn't drive the bus, and this year's model was just awful.
We'll start the process of evaluating each player for the 09-10 season on Monday. Beginning with the team's best player, Dustin Penner.
Surprised at Comrie's low place on the list. Subjectively I would have ranked him higher in terms of how much he seems to produce in the time that he gets. But facts don't usually bother me much...
ReplyDeleteI'd suggest Horc's shoulder as a major impact on his numbers the last 2 seasons. It's an issue going forward.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth: Brule recieved points on 84.3% of ESGF. You can expect that to regress substantially next year. Something in the 1.80ESP/60 range is what I'd guesstimate, given similar circumstances and luck.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'd say 08-09, Horcoff's point-luck was a bit low and he wasn't playing particularly favorable-for-scoring minutes. This year, his point luck is a bit high but he's playing with scrubs so a) you'd expect him to get points on a lot of the offense and b) he's not going to be on ice for many goals. You can add the shoulder in as a further circumstance as you see fit.
Penner's season was pretty spectacular and I won't take anything away from him. His points per goal for was at 76%, which is a little high (and way off his past two marks of 58% and 52%) but I'd say, by eye, he was much more likely to facilitate offense than just play the fat guy in front of the net role, which certainly accounts for a big portion of the jump. I wouldn't expect 75% again, but high 60's is certainly a possibility given similar linemates/role.
And, here's the points per goal data, starting with 09-10 and going back to 07-08. If they have a zero, they weren't on the team (in a significant role) that year.
ReplyDeleteDUSTINPENNER -- 0.759 -- 0.578 -- 0.523
GILBERTBRULE -- 0.843 -- 0 -- 0
RYANPOTULNY -- 0.801 -- 0 -- 0
SAMGAGNER -- 0.622 -- 0.653 -- 0.841
ROBERTNILSSON -- 0.693 -- 0.469 -- 0.795
SHAWNHORCOFF -- 0.749 -- 0.558 -- 0.825
ANDREWCOGLIANO -- 0.548 -- 0.722 -- 0.781
J-FJACQUES -- 0.612 -- 0 -- 0
PATRICKO'SULLIVAN -- 0.759 -- 0.673 -- 0
MIKECOMRIE -- 0.599 -- 0 -- 0
RYANJONES -- 0.57 -- 0 -- 0
ZACHERYSTORTINI -- 0.5 -- 0.649 -- 0.521
ETHANMOREAU -- 0.564 -- 0.649 -- 0.747
The Penner signing has turned out to be a bit of a stroke of genius in the end.
ReplyDeleteAfter so much hand wringing. At least Vanek didn't sign HIS offer sheet.
Conan - it will be a stroke of genius if he keeps it up, which I suspect he will, and if he remains an Oiler when this contract is up.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise its three picks thrown away and a rebuild postponed.
So understanding that the numbers for most guys may have been skewed this year ( I look at Cogs pulled down with horrible linemates most of the year) who can we slot in for next year? The org seems to be laying the groundwork for Eberle to start in the AHL. OTC's comments on Team 1260 the other day about the issues with Phoenix last season: too many rookies, even high draft picks, killed their season. So this past season they sent some down (ie. Turris) and picked up solid actual NHLer's. We really need to make some decisions, because there is no room to add solid two way players if you pencil in Eberle and Hall/Seguin, along with our current crop of players. A few Pisani types (Pisani from 2 years ago) would go a long way to helping tis team compete next year, and not to mention a solid tough shut down dman.
ReplyDeleteMoreau, O'Sullivan, Nilsson, Cogliano, Pouliot are question marks. All have some redeeming qualities along with some warts. They won't be able to or willing to move all of them so assuming at least 3 are still here, there is still no spot to add players.
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Eberle
Moreau-Pouliot-Brule
Jones-Potulny-O'Sullivan
Stortini-Stone
Nilsson and Cogs moved.
BD...bang on...Penner's value will show if he maintains his play, and rewards the Oilers management with a cap friendly next contract in lieu of them making him a very rich man earlier on in his career.
ReplyDeleteI believe when Rich Winter was on the radio after Hossa signed with DET he talked about how the Wings were in the enviable position of so many vets like Draper/Lidstrom/etc being comfortable taking $.80-$.90 on the $1 because Ilitch took such good car of them comp-wise in the pre-cap era. While I won't expect it...sure would be nice to see Penner take that into consideration when he does become a UFA.
Gord for that to happen there will have to be some indication that success or even competitiveness is just around the corner. Those DET guys knew they had a chance to win.
ReplyDeleteie Penner: not that i want to move him as i think he's been solid and still has another gear. but after this coming season (2010/11) the org will need to make some decisions. It'll be ala horcoff in that they either re sign in the off season or they are moved. I think with MPS probably coming over in 2011/12 that the Org will be in a strong position to negotiate with both Hemsky and Penner. Unless Eberle, Hall/Seguin and MPS look horrible next year, the org can basically move Penner or Hemsky from a position of strength and get full value for them since there are younger, cheaper options in the pipeline.
ReplyDeletePenner-Gagner-Hemsky
MPS-Seguin-Eberle
Might be fun to see that top 6 in 2 years. With Horcoff our 3rd line centre, along with Lander/Vande Velde our 4th line C. I would love them to take Seguin as it sets up our C position for the next 4 years.
Penner's value will show if he maintains his play, and rewards the Oilers management with a cap friendly next contract in lieu of them making him a very rich man earlier on in his career.
ReplyDeleteI think expectations of any player to "reward" management are naive. Oilers will have to pay ~market value~ to retain Penner or Hemsky, just as they did Horcoff and Smyth.
That said, Penner is delivering good results for his "overpay" contract, so it's not like he owes a debt of gratitude. Especially after the way he was left dangling in the wind for a month last summer.
Minor point, Gord, but "in lieu of" means "instead of", so was not the term you were looking for in that context.
For what it's worth: Brule recieved points on 84.3% of ESGF. You can expect that to regress substantially next year. Something in the 1.80ESP/60 range is what I'd guesstimate, given similar circumstances and luck.
ReplyDeleteQuain: That's assuming that the number of goals scored with Brule on the ice remains static, and his percentage of points per goal is reduced to ~normal.
An alternative view is that his GF ON/60 is artificially low becuase his linemates scored few goals without his involvement, and can be expected to score more.
I'm not saying either view is "correct", just that the points per goal metric is a bit of a slippery slope.
Bruce: and correct me if I'm wrong, but Brule didn't get much PP time and scored most of his points at EV. If they actually left him with Penner, he may improve his current pace and top 25 goals next year. Let Brule run with Penner and Gagner and it gives us a legit 2nd line to play the softies since Horcoff-Hemsky and Hall will get the toughs.
ReplyDeleteConan said...
ReplyDeleteThe Penner signing has turned out to be a bit of a stroke of genius in the end.
After so much hand wringing. At least Vanek didn't sign HIS offer sheet.
8:40 AM, April 09, 2010
Not that the Oilers would have picked the same player necessarily, but that 12th overall pick they gave up was used by Buffalo to draft one Tyler Myers. Even without the 2nd and 3rd round prospects thrown in, there's still a long way to go before 'genius' level move by management is heralded.
DBO:
ReplyDeleteIf we're going to hard match in a Power versus Power sense again next year, wouldn't it make more sense to run Penner with H&H and have Hall with Gagner/Brule in a soft-minutes line?
Hall's great and all, but let's not make the same mistake we're always making and chuck the rookie into the fucking deep end.
It just doesn't work.
dorito: that makes sense, but I wondered if putting Hall with Horcoff at least gives him the most responsible centre we have, and not to mention the most talented linemate we can give him in Hemsky. I would sooner spread the wealth and have Penner anchoring the 2nd line meaning we have a more balanced scoring attack. And i like the idea of not having 2 rookies on the same line in Hall and Eberle.
ReplyDeleteuni:
ReplyDeleteGood point. Is Tyler Myers really 6.08? With ~50 points this season? Yeesh.
Conan, he's around 6'8.5" actually, 47 points, 30 PIMs, and leads the Sabres on ATOI. Not that it's important but he also skates very well, and only turned 20 last February.
ReplyDeleteFirst time I saw him in a game (with a guy I know from work) we both thought he was a forward. We both weren't really watching the game but he grabbed our attention by twice flying down the wing, blowing past/through the defenceman on his side and driving to the net with authority.
We looked up Myers to realize it was Tyler Myers, the defenceman of WJ fame (his partner on that team is now with TO traded with Phaneuf), taken by Buffalo after they traded with Anaheim for the 2008 12th overall pick previously acquired as compensation from the Oilers. I remember feeling sick in my stomach at that point.
Last time a rookie D impressed me was the first game I watched Doughty in 2 years ago.
Don't worry, uni - this org almost certainly would have drafted someone else anyways. Colborne was still available, and we kept hearing how much they liked him.
ReplyDeletePenner clearly can create by himself and he makes any player that plays with him better.
ReplyDeleteIf Penner can turn some 6's and 7's into 10's and j's why not roll with that?
Horcoff obviously needs to play with an elite player like Hemsky for 82 games if he is reach 50 points but putting Penner on that line as well seems like a waste.
Myers is a guy you must have had to see play, because his stats in junior pre-draft don't show any indication he'd put up these kind of offensive numbers as a 19/20 year old in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteuni - here's the thing though, that pick was 12th with Penner in the lineup
ReplyDeleteTake him out of the lineup and don't sign Souray (who I know was hurt for much of that season) and that's easily a top ten pick especially if they're replaced with dregs. Keep Cogs in the AHL (probably best for his development).
I think that may be what makes me craziest about these past three years. I'll give Lowe a pass for 2006/2007, not for his failure to shore up the D after Pronger and Spacek left, but for trying to compete, but once they moved Smyth they should have just said that's it, we're tearing it down. They'd lost Pronger, Spacek, Smith, Bergeron, Tarnstrom, Smyth, Samsonov and Peca from the 06 team. Either replace those guys as best you can or tear it apart. Instead they went halfway. The worst thing they could do.
LT, what would Pouliot's 5x5/60 have been if he had played enough to qualify?
ReplyDeleteHe seems a different man this season to my eye.
"He seems a different man this season to my eye."
ReplyDeleteMine as well.
Finally looks willing to get dirty and seems to be winning more than his share of 50/50 battles.
His shift in OT last game was probably his best shift as a pro.
Yeah, I'm wondering if a corner has been turned, or if a light has gone on.
ReplyDeleteBD, your assessment is on the mark of course and I agree with you to a point. The thing is though, in 2008 I would also gladly take a lottery pick and have a shot at Doughty or Stamkos. I'd settle for a high Bogosian, Filatov or even Schenn. Hell I'd be happy with Cody Hodgson.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds, yeah, he was touted as a mobile shutdown defenseman. I have no idea where his offense came from. He was supposed to develop similarly to his lesser talented partner from the WJ, Keith Aulie. Somewhere a light went on his last junior season and he's carried it over though.
ReplyDeleteSchitzo & Traktor, I think it may just be how Pouliot is without injury. That poor SOB has been injured so often that he's never had time to develop properly and establish traction long enough for us to see what he can really do. Not that I feel that bad for him since he has a nice amount of green for his time in the NHL already.
uni - well that's the thing, right? This whole idea that NOW we're going to rebuild, well shit.
ReplyDeleteAnd if Hemsky and Khabibulin had not gotten hurt they'd likely still be spinning their wheels. Ironically it may have been the best thing to have happened, those injuries.
Think about it though. In 2007/2008 you leave Cogs in the AHL and Gagner in junior and replace them with nothing. Play Geoff Sanderson 80 games if you have to. Trade Roloson if you can. Tank damn it!
In 2008/2009 never mind Erik Cole. Never mind trading for Lubo because you want to keep Greene I think. Trade Torres. Trade Stoll if he's not in the plans. Or keep him. He's still young. Gagner in the AHL to start his pro career. Take a longer look at Pitkanen or move him for someone else who is young. Again try and move Roli as soon as you can. Play Schremp 80 games and see what he can do.
I'd guess you'd have a lottery pick again.
Of course this is all conjecture which is easy to do but instead of Gagner, Plante, Nash, Eberle, MPS you have the first four plus a top ten (maybe lottery pick) from 2008 and probably a higher pick from last summer too. Plus whatever picks you get for other vets that you move. Plus Stoll, Pitkanen and Greene who fit in better with a rebuild. Or picks/prospects for them if you don't like them. Your mileage might vary.
I like what Penner has become a lot. I hope that they can extend him for reasonable dollars. But at this point the move has postponed the inevitable rebuild.
Pouiot is a dandy 2.17 for the season.
ReplyDeleteBD,
ReplyDeleteI agree with all your points except Stoll. I think he had to be moved. JMO, but it seemed like one of those "player X just needs a change of scenery".
Regarding Pouliot.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone think that MacT's coaching had an adverse effect on him? I'm just wondering because I haven't seen him even attempt to do some of the things he has done this year. Before it seemed that he would just be trying to not make a mistake, whereas now he seems to be given some degree of a green light to make things happen.
I think Pouliot has won his spot this year. He's definitely turned the corner i think. I think he would be a good player to outplay his potential contract, and be a helpful 3rd liner. Even some PP time if Horcoff blows a tire again.
ReplyDeleteI think they'l play theyr first pick whoever it is.
I think Nilsson proved better than some other skill man options (Cogliano, O'sullivan)
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Nilsson
Brulé-Pouliot-Potulny
Stortini-Free spot-Jones
Free spot, Free spot
(UFA or Player in organization)
Moreau, Comrie, O'sullivan and Cogliano gone. (Oh and Jacques is an obvious one) .
Call up Eberle if someone gets injured or slacks.
BD, that's spot on with how I feel. I'll give them 2007 easily, but by 2008 I think it was pretty obvious the direction the club was trending and that was the pivotal moment. Instead they went walkabout only to come back to the beginning having learned nothing, largely wasting good opportunities to develop players properly and increase the odds on their draft bets.
ReplyDeleteFortunately Eberle and MPS prevent the '08 and 09 drafts from being absolute train wrecks in terms of wasted opportunities. Those are still two years of the rebuild wasted, and two years longer of wandering in the wilderness. Not to mention the future impact those wasted years will have on upcoming RFA contracts, and lords forbid upcoming UFA contracts.
I'm still hoping that the Oil get a shot at Kabanov this year at 31. If Tambellini somehow pulls a pick for Connelly out of the air without giving up the future...well it'll go a very long way =).
In 2008/2009...Gagner in the AHL to start his pro career.
ReplyDeleteIt's astonishing to think about, but Gagner would still have had to go back to junior last year. This was the first year he could go to the AHL.
No kidding eh Schitzo? Crazy.
ReplyDeleteboopronger - oh yeah your mileage may vary on all of these guys. I liked Pitkanen a lot but some didn't.
The funny thing is that with the right moves each summer the club could have gone the other way, that is they could have been competitive but Lowe spent too much money on the wrong guys, made the wrong bets and so on. You can go the other way and build a case for how he could have built a competitive club year after year too if he had only added some pieces here or there.
its too bad. Instead we've had neither and its been four years wasted. That 06/07 club was incomplete as well, just like the rest of them.
Sometimes its tough to take.
Back to topic though, I'd agree on Pouliot. He's been low event before but really not much more than roster filler after that. Since his return from injury he has been solid. Its good to see.
Were we really so far out in the wilderness in '08 and '09 that a rebuild/tank job would have been tolerated by the fan base?
ReplyDeleteThey were in the hunt for the playoffs down pretty close to the wire both years (and I will always believe sould have made it in last year and would have if MacT had been fired in-season), and were even fighting for a playoff spot in 07 right up until the Smyth trade.
It's easy to look back now knowing that it's been 4 years without the playoffs and say that it was obviously time to burn things down, but at the end of each year it was pretty simple to think we were just a couple tweaks away from getting in again.
And having just been all the way to the cusp of glory in 06, we were all like junkies who would never have listened to somebody say it would be smart to deny ourselves out next hit of playoff hockey.
So where does Pouliot fit into a healthy line-up? Left wing is still a black hole past Penner so do you play him there? Or is he your 2-3 C?
ReplyDeleteLeft wing is still a black hole past Penner so do you play him there? Or is he your 2-3 C?
ReplyDeleteYou're assuming that MPS and Hall won't both be on the team come October.
ED: I would say a regular on the 3rd line. Then 2nd line if big improvement/injury/mental breakdown of a guy in the top 6.
ReplyDeleteBull Durham, The Sandlot or the Natural, which one should i pick?
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeletePouliot is a dandy 2.17 for the season.
That is a dandy figure. Hopefully he doesn't get Brodziaked this summer, because I'd like to see if he can add some sustain.
flamingpavelbure said...
ReplyDeleteBull Durham, The Sandlot or the Natural, which one should i pick?
For what? Have you seen any of them? If not, I'd probably vote for the first one.
Ed,
I'd like to see Pouliot seize the 3C role, although most here seem to have Seguin pencilled onto the roster and Horc pulling that duty.
To Spoiler: I felt like watching a baseball movie.
ReplyDeleteI just began Bull Durham, sounds like a fun one. Just the beginning made me laugh big time.
''We would all give our left nut to be in your position and your banging that piece of ass instead of getting warmed up?'' ''I AM warmed up!''
''He walked 18, new league record, but he stroke out 18, also new league record''
ReplyDelete''He hit the spors announcer, and the bulls mascot twice, also new league record''.
Damn !
Still doesn't beat The Natural.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely go with that one next.
Principe twit....
ReplyDeleteRobert Nilsson the rest of the season for Edmonton. He isn't on the trip to California because of dizzy spells. He's getting further testing.
FPB,
ReplyDeleteVerrry quotable movie.
Geez another injury, what are the odds?
And The Kirill Kabanov Story (coming soon to HBO) just gets weirder and weirder.
He might actually be available at 31 at the rate he's going.
Do the Rangers have a first round pick? He'll be gone if they do.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Pouliot.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone think that MacT's coaching had an adverse effect on him?
Seems counter-intuitive (which isn't the same as wrong, of course). The book on MacT was that he had problems with skill players, but was good at teaching guys defensive responsibility, which is what Pouliot needed to focus on.
Alternative hypothesis: Pouliot was hearing what he needed to from MacT, but didn't believe it. Once MacT left and Pouliot was still hearing the same things from the new guys, it began to sink in that maybe MacT wasn't crazy.
And The Kirill Kabanov Story (coming soon to HBO) just gets weirder and weirder.
He might actually be available at 31 at the rate he's going.
You probably already knew this, but that's exactly where Central Scouting has him.
I don't know if I'd touch the guy with a 31ft stick at this point. Something's definitely wrong there.
ReplyDeleteFPB - Doesn't A.J. Burnett strike a resemblance to "Nuke" Laloosh, aka "Meat"?
ReplyDeleteConsidering what we know about the KHL and the Russian hockey federation (My source being Elliot Friedman's documentary) does anyone else give Kabanov the benefit of the doubt?
ReplyDeleteOlivier Roy in his first AHL action (I believe) tonight. 16 saves on 18 shots. Eberle with a primary PP assist. Petry -1 so far.
ReplyDeleteEnds up with the L in OT. 16 saves on 19 shots. Providence looked like the equally crappy team it is. Springfield actually managed more shots.
ReplyDeleteHAHAHA!!!
ReplyDeleteJust reading the boxscore for the Falcons game, which was played at:
The Dunkin' Donuts Center.
Best sponsorship agreement EVER.
There's a thread over at HF suggesting Lander will be staying a year in Sweden. I think that's pretty much what everyone assumed was best anyways.
ReplyDeleteLander's made comments to the Swedish press throughout the season suggesting that he feels he'd be better suited staying in Timra for a few more years. I suspect we won't sign him right up until the expiry of our rights. This assumption can be rebutted by evidence that his new contract is less than 2 years, but I'm doubtful.
ReplyDeleteMPS is much more likely to come over sooner. Though apparently there are some unresolved issues with the new transfer agreement with Sweden.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers signed defenceman Ryan Donald. He played for Springfield tonight. Yale Bulldogs captain, played AJHL for fort saskatchewan. From St. Albert. He's a big boy too, not sure exactly but probably something like 6'3 or 6'4 220.
ReplyDeleteI congraulate all of those who got PTO's with Springfield, but damn, I've seen beer league teams with better talent than what they are working with right now. They are seriously looking under every rock for players to play there.
ReplyDeleteDanger: The Marlins A.J Burnett. The motion looks like an old style 80's one tough.
ReplyDeleteResuming the movie from earlier tonight.
ReplyDelete''I heard you couldn't hit the water if you fell from a boat''
Instant classic.
I am hoping they find a spot for Pouliot too.
ReplyDeleteAs for Kabanov - just say no. His junior team in Moncton let him leave while they are in the playoffs for God sakes. He was to then play in the U18's for Russia and then gets booted off that team. He has already fought with the KHL as well.
He obviously has talent but surely we all know this doesn't mean anything.
Even if the Oilers could sign him, they would constantly have pamper him or have him run off to the KHL. You can forget about him playing defence.
He is ranked 31st by Central Scouting for North American skaters, this means he is actually renked somewhere lower.
The Oilers have a chance to grab a pretty good player at 31. I hope it aint this moop.