The boys at Coming Down the Pipe are the experts when it comes to Oilers in the NCAA, so when the tell me that a deal is almost done that's a pretty strong tell.
The Oilers badly need Petry to be a "complete" defenseman when he's NHL ready. With the possible exception of recent hire Ryan Whitney, the club has a group of blueliners who can't really be mixed and matched.
- Tom Gilbert is a quality finesse defenseman best matched with a more physical (and defensive) partner, which isn't to say he can't play defense, read plays or be in good position.
- Sheldon Souray is a tough veteran with grit and a mean streak. He also owns a cannon from the point, but his mobility issues mean there are possible partners on the club that don't fit.
- Ladislav Smid is an unusal player. A tough blueliner with a lot of heart and grit, he has an alarming inability to actually defend himself. It looks like he'll end up being a stay-at-home type with little offensive ability, once again meaning his D partner will need to be a very specific player-type.
All these kids, from Peckham to Chorney to Plante to Motin have some limitations in their scouting reports. Petry's advantage is that he does appear to have a wide range of skills on a team with very little of it at any position.
Exciting stuff. In terms of playing style I see Petry being similar to Brad Stuart. Physical, can skate well for a big defender, some offensive ability.
ReplyDeleteStatistically haven't really found any good comparables however.
I'm guessing Petry will get some ABs at AAA. Damn near all NCAA players have issues with the volume of games in the pro schedule in the first year. Its good to get him in the pro game ASAP.
ReplyDeleteIts good to get Petry under contract. He does have a nice, wide range of skills. I'm intersted to see what side of skills pan out.
Petry will forego his senior year at State and sign with the Oil.
ReplyDeleteIt's a done deal.
GSC: Source?
ReplyDeleteHere's something you don't need a source for LT...The Flames lose again and they are done.
ReplyDeleteAt least they still have the draft...in 2012.
Wow. I imagine some Sutter or another will be heading out of town. Wow. And after all the good work they did at the deadline.
ReplyDeleteDavid Booth needs to go back to peewee to learn how to play with his head up. He must have learned how to skate from Carl Lindros.....
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe Staois sabotage worked!
ReplyDeleteI don't mean to always keep picking on Souray - or maybe I do - but his shot wasn't any hell this past season and he hasn't even been able to stay in the lineup for the better part of two of his three seasons since he signed so I don't think you should consider him a constant.
ReplyDeleteI know he's a constant on the payroll and I know that matters but I don't think anyone should look at him as any better than a 5th or 6th D; once again I know his freight makes it hard to slot a guy like that so low but you can't count on him to actually play a full season either.
The Nylander and Vanek signings don't count in my upcoming list because Lowe was lucky enough that someone saved him from himself but the Souray signing joins the Pronger and Smyth trades in the pantheon of big stupid moves made by Lowe.
Note: Khabby's most likely on his way to making it a quartet.
Holy hell, it was 2-1 Flames and a tie game in the Toronto game when I got too nervous to keep refreshing TSN. What a pleasant, pleasant surprise.
ReplyDelete*runs to CalgaryPuck to see when the mass suicide will occur*
ReplyDeleteCalgaryPuck eh.. hehehe...
ReplyDeleteColumbus, TB, Carolina, NYI and Toronto all win.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers are now 17 points behind TB and Columbus, 16 behind Carolina (wasn't it just 2 monts ago we were debating about whether they were too far back to catch us?), 15 behind the Islanders and 11 behind Toronto and we can get a maximum of 18 points if we win our last 9 games.
However, just so PJO can't sleep too soundly tonight, we have a game in hand on all of those teams:)
If the unlikely should occur and we actually catch Toronto, who wins the tiebreaker?
ReplyDeleteWe split the season series 1-1 with a goal differential of 7-7.
Schitzo... we have the tiebreaker, it's regulation wins.
ReplyDeleteThat said, Oilers can go 5-4 and guarantee themselves last place even if EVERYONE else lost out.
Dennis is absolutely bang on, and hopefully Petry can be a gooder.
Here's something you don't need a source for LT...The Flames lose again and they are done.
ReplyDeleteBruno Gerussi with the winner for the Islanders,assists to Relic and Jesse Jim.
Hemsky update
-Eberle and that Swedish guy coming up the ranks
-Cervenka-"I know him quite a bit,really smart"
Dennis:
ReplyDeleteThe good news about Souray is he has enough value that he can be moved at the draft. That's more than some of the other high priced tickets in town can say.
You should be more worried about the players that we'll be be stuck with.
The Khabibulin signing was worse than anything Lowe did IMO.
From the Last Thread:
ReplyDeleteI think we can do better than a $4.5m cap hit, if we are thinking ~8 years.
Here's some 20 y/o seasons for some mid-high(ish) first rounders over the last few seasons 5v5:
GFon/60
Stafford 3.72
Kessel 3.52
Ladd 2.99
Cogliano 2.92
Zajac 2.63
Kopitar 2.59
Olesz 2.46
Gagner 2.41
Mueller 2.39
Perron 2.22
Brule 1.53
GAon/60
Kessel 1.73
Brule 1.96
Olesz 2.25
Zajac 2.27
Mueller 2.73
Gagner 2.82
Stafford 2.95
Cogliano 2.99
Ladd 2.99
Perron 3.16
Kopitar 3.23
QualComp
Olesz 0.063 (Toughest)
Stafford 0.060 (2nd Toughest)
Zajac -0.081 (2nd Toughest)
Kessel 0.014 (2nd Toughest)
Kopitar 0.022 (2nd-3rd Easiest)
Perron -0.011 (2nd-3rd Easiest)
Ladd 0.019 (2nd Easiest)
Brule -0.007 (2nd Easiest)
Mueller -0.025 (2nd Easiest)
Cogliano -0.032 (2nd Easiest)
Gagner -0.064 (Easiest)
QualTeam
Brule -0.085 (Worst)
Kopitar -0.063 (3rd Best)
Olesz -0.05 (3rd Best)
Perron -0.025 (3rd Best)
Ladd 0.08 (3rd Best)
Cogliano -0.060 (2nd Best)
Mueller 0.028 (2nd Best)
Zajac 0.06 (2nd Best)
Stafford 0.36 (2nd Best)
Kessel 0.225 (2nd Best)
Gagner 0.156 (Best)
There's some talent on this list, Like Kessel and Kopitar, but there's also some lesser lights.
Gagner isn't seperating himself whil getting the easiest minutes.
In hindsight, there may be 1 thing worse than having your GM dithering and evaluating for years while getting nothing much accomplished...That would be the GM that for the last 5 years can't get a grasp on what he's got and constantly sells the future because he's convinced he's close to winning something now. The Flames make our cap situation look down right roomy by comparison, have traded all their high draft picks for the forseeable future and still can't make the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to looking down on the Flames in the standings for the next decade.
How can we be sure Khabi wasn't a Lowe move? If I recall correctly, and I do, Tambs wasn't really in charge until just a few months ago.
ReplyDeleteheh.. and some people wonder why this team is soooooo bad
Black Gold: Those qual comp numbers are across teams and seasons, no? I don't think those numbers are really meant to be used in this manner.
ReplyDeleteOr am I wrong?
Might have a chance to meet Mr. Katz in the Rexall Group's corporate box tomorrow. Anyone have any suggestions for intelligent questions to ask him?
ReplyDeleteDanger man: D-mans get injured so often, i think it would be odd for him to do a complete schedule. Maybe that and rotation of dmans will help him ajust better than say a forward.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else catch that Hemsky sound bite where he mentions that he wants to "show everybody that [he] will be OK for next year".
ReplyDeleteInteresting choice of words.
Might have a chance to meet Mr. Katz in the Rexall Group's corporate box tomorrow. Anyone have any suggestions for intelligent questions to ask him?
ReplyDeleteMaybe show him how to tie a hangman's knot if he mentions Fowler?
FBP: Yeah, I don't deny that. Dmen get hurt all the time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in some Oiler games next year.
ReplyDeleteIt's just such a quantum leap for Dmen, especially from NCAA to make that jump, just due to the games coming fast and furious.
I expect Petry to be on the same learning curve Tom Gilbert is currently riding, with perhaps a little bit more of a higher ceiling.
Yeah. It's the Pros and Cons of the different leagues.
ReplyDeleteCHL: Get players with more stamina and ease to play a full schedule, tough little time to train the body.
NCAA: Players with higher physical deveopment, tough very few games to develop stamina and in-game abilities. (They play fewer games than Midget teams...)
European Leagues: Play with man, have a good mix up. You can't follow your player as well and he would have higher tendencies in staying in Europe.
DangerMan:
ReplyDeleteI think that for the most part the Tom Gilbert (and Matt Greene) type of learning curve is a bit optimistic.
Taylor Chorney is two seasons out of NCAA and he still can't hack the AHL game.
Cody Wild, while probably mismanaged, still hasn't seen NHL time two years out of NCAA.
Ryan Whitney spent over a year in the AHL (though it was the lockout season)
There are other examples from other organizations I could also cite, but the point of my argument is thus: The kid shouldn't be rushed into duty before he's ready, less he become a larger version of Chorney.
If he beats out Theo Peckham for a roster spot next year, then all the better (well, maybe not for Wreck'um but whatever). I do think we've got a live one on the hook but let's not go hoping he's going to be Gilbert Gilbert before he's left school.
hall with 2 more goals. and a bit of a flip flop, of the top scorers 3 of the top 7 are plymouth and hall looks like he is carrying the load for windsor like seguin did in the regular season.
ReplyDeleteahh the joy of the small sample size....
Might have a chance to meet Mr. Katz in the Rexall Group's corporate box tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI cannot remember the last time I saw him show up for a game, December maybe? January?
Hall has been dealing with the pressure of being hyped as the #1 pick for over a year now and has covered the bet like a pro.
ReplyDeleteIf the lottery works for us, the Oil need to not get crazy trying to outsmart everyone and just take the sure thing.
Linden vs Modano people, Linden vs Modano.
ReplyDeleteNow let's figure out who's Modano.
DG: I really don't have blinders on when it comes to Petry, I just think his size and his style of game bodes better than it has for Chorney or Wild. (Chorney still has a long way to go and Wild will probably never see the NHL). Initially I do see problems with Petry on the defensive side, but with reps I do feel he'll get a handle on things. I don't think it will ba as bad as what Chorney has had to deal with.
ReplyDeleteHe'll have his ups and downs much like Gilbert has, but ultimately at worst I believe he'll be a top 4 Dman in the NHL.
Don't forget that its only now, with the arrival of Whitney, that Gilbert is starting to gain traction as a #2 Dman. We'll have to see how Gilbert handles the minutes over the long haul.
FPB:
ReplyDeleteThat might actually be the best comparison I've yet seen.
Very good.
Nice work FPB. You got me looking at the 1988 draft and I like the comparison but have come away thoroughly depressed at the Oilers Hall (pun intended). Leroux and Len Barrie as your "successes". Yikes!
ReplyDeleteMight have a chance to meet Mr. Katz in the Rexall Group's corporate box tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAsk him if he reads the blogs and what he thinks about this sphere of oilers discussion
Both were great players (Well Modano is still playing, but only a shade of himself). Both had theyr abilities, and altough i think Modano was the better man, on short and long term, the dice could be rolled on what type of player the Organization wants to build.
ReplyDeleteCharachter and and psychological analyses might decide who gets picked.
My two picks to outperform on LT's prospect list at the beginning of the year...Petry and JDD!
ReplyDeleteEager to see how Dan's son will perform. The second pick's performance might be slightly more controversial but I am looking forward to LT's year end grade...;)
@lowetide
ReplyDeleteI sorted the qualcomp and qualteam based on where they ranked on their relative teams.
I tried to figure out how they fit in on their teams. Kessel for example was on a very strong Boston squad for his 20 y/o season. So his qualcomp of 0.014 has him playing the second toughest competition boston was facing. Andrew Ladd had a qualcomp of 0.019. But that was on a very different Carolina team, and his 0.014 meant he was facing the second easiest competition.
I wasn't trying to use the actual number to rank the players, but trying to figure out how they were being used on their teams. Then rank them based on that.
Another example, Kessel's 0.225 QualTeam is higher than Gagner's 0.156, but on Boston's strong squad that meant he was still only playing with the second best Boston had to offer. Gagner's 0.156 was far and away the highest on this terrible Edm team.
It's not exact, but you can get a pretty good understand of how a player is being used like this, imo.
Maybe I'm wrong, and if I am please let me know. :)
I am not sad to see the Flames losing.
ReplyDeleteOnce again, this is why success in the NHL is more than paint by numbers. I think building a winning organization is not only a science, but an art.
It would be a science if we had perfect information and gigantic brains to calculate with, but we don't, so management needs to use a lot of heuristics to get it right, whether you call some things gut instinct, genius, or whatever. Sutter seems to lack it.
Re: Chorney
ReplyDeleteRafalski played 4 years of college, and needed 4 years in Europe before he was good enough for the NHL as a smallish puck handling non-physical defenseman.
At Rafalski's pace of development, Chorney would require 3 more years of development.
black gold:
ReplyDeletenice work. i was going to look for similar info.
the results aren't very flattering to young samwise. not a disaster, but i can't see throwing long term money at those results. i'd rather see what the next two years hold before making a long term decision.
there are too many young kids getting unrealistic raises an absolutely missing from a results perspective.
OT: is it worse to be david booth or FLA right now? FLA has to pay him 4.2 for another 4 years...that's going to be a pretty expensive contract for a kid who had 1.5 years of decent play. poor kid is starting to look like the Big E crossing the blue line (not in a good way)
@godot
ReplyDeletei feel safe saying that we shouldn't be comparing chorney to a stanley cup winner and olympian.
it might be better comparing his career to Robert Stewart.
(hint, NHL HISTORY worst -260 +/-...all in just 8 seasons)
realistically...it's probably better not comparing him to anyone and just hope we aquire more depth and never have to worry about the guy. there are no "comparables" for the guy that get me excited in the least.
LT: Let's just say that I have a good connection with the MSU program.
ReplyDeleteA really good one, as a matter of fact.
Blackgold: Yea, I recently compared Gagner's numbers this season to other players from his draft year that are regulars this season and they aren't all that flattering.
ReplyDeleteI've heard some talk of Brule not deserving of a raise based on the stats, but Gagner is even equally undeserving based on boxcars.
One of the stats I worry about with Gagner is 24 ESPs.
ReplyDeleteThe idea of a 8 year contract for Gagner doesn't bother me, he is a fairly bright spot on a historically poor team. As far as buying low, now is the time.
Brassard is making $3.2 til 2014.If I'm doing the negotiation, thats where I start.
GSC: Good to know.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad that we are done appointing Sutter and Howson as the all encompassing all-knowing GM's who address need. Doesn't make ours any better but it helps when the enemy and the guy you let go aren't rubbing it in your face.
ReplyDeleteGood to hear Petry is close. Lord knows this team needs D who can play.
Its official
ReplyDeleteGeneral Manager Steve Tambellini announced today the Edmonton Oilers have signed Jeff Petry to a two-year NHL entry level contract.
Petry, the Oilers 1st choice, 45th overall, in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft, recently completed his third season with Michigan State University of the CCHA.
Told ya I wasn't blowing smoke.
ReplyDeleteBut that about does it for my connections, unless the Oil end up with another prospect in the State pipeline.
Good call, GSC. Good signing, Steve. Good luck, Jeff.
ReplyDelete@ LT: You realize of course that the companion piece for this is "Poetry in Motin".
ReplyDelete