Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Oilers at Wild, G70, 09-10

This is Bert "be home" Blyleven. He arrived in the majors in the spring of 1970 and pitched until about three months ago. Not really, but man he pitched a lot of years. Bert had a curveball that you had to see to believe, it kind of dropped off the kitchen table at exactly the right time.

In fact, if you saw it once the word that would come to mind is "fluke." No one can do that, except he'd do it again and again and again. When he was older they juiced the ball and the curves that were flat got beaten to death. In a two year span during this era, Bert gave up 96 home runs! Incredible.

He won 17 and 15 games in those seasons. He also pitched all the damn time. He pitched 241 innings at age 38, a nice bookend to a career that saw him throw 278 innings in his first full season (age 20).

He won 5 WS games, two WS (including the year he gave up 46 homers), struck out a ton and won a bunch. But it's that curveball I'll remember.
--

There's a thousand stories I could tell you about Oilers past. Ryan Smyth battling in the corner, Glenn Anderson driving to the net, Gretzky passing to nowhere (seemingly) and Kurri entering the zone to rip one past the goaltender. Doug Weight's reaction to Marchment's knee on knee, Dave Brown in any of his fights, Mike Grier on the PK, Paul Coffey gathering steam, Mark Messier in a bad mood, Grant Fuhr stopping a breakaway, Andy Moog vs. Montreal.

Any old timey fan can do that for you, the memories roll through the brain and these days I welcome them. This season, 2009-10, more than any season since 1992-93 and 1993-94, it is becoming more and more difficult to find a reason to watch this team.

Gagner's passes, Pouliot's career development by sundial, Penner's inspired moments, Horcoff's battling through. There's not much, my friends.

I wish you could have seen Blyleven's curveball in his prime. Beauty.

160 comments:

  1. It's ecstacy, anguish, joy, and despair. Its part of our history, part of our country, and it will be part of our future. It's theatre, art, war and love. It should be predictible, but never is. It's a feeling we cant explain but we spend our entire lives explaining it. It's our religion. We do not apologize for it, we do not deny it. They are our team, our family, our life, our OILERS.

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  2. Not a lot of good since Hemsky went down. And now that Lubo is gone too its even worse. There's so little quality.

    This is a sad sack squad. I enjoy Peckham's aggressiveness and I think he's earning a spot for next season even though he's so damn raw.

    And Gilbert is terrific.

    But they're really really crap. over half of the guys they dressed Saturday night shouldn't be in the NHL.

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  3. Black Dog: you hit it on the head. how many guys on our roster wouldn't make almost any other team but the Leafs? Take away contract and you could argue that:
    Potulny (had a good year, but has been a career AHLer), Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Moreau, Pouliot, Jacques, o'Marra, Stone (could be solid as a bottom 6er), Stortini (although he's close to a solid 4th liner), Chorney, Peckham, Strudwick, Macdonald, and Dubnyk would all have trouble making most teams in this league. We really only have a few NHLer's who can actually play the game at any sustained decent level:
    Hemsky, Horcoff, Gagner, Penner, Cogliano (i put him here since he's shown he can play with actual linemates), Brule, and Pisani (he's a solid player when he's healthy), Gilbert, Souray, Whitney, Smid, JDD (as a backup at best) and bulin when healthy.

    that is not a lot of actual NHLer's, and it really validates what people on this blog have been saying for a few years now. We need a bunch of solid NHLer's and not one superstar. You add Hall/Seguin plus Eberle and maybe Petry, along with a solid RH 3C, a solid two way physical dman for the top 4 and a veteran physical winger and we have a chance to be an actual NHL team as opposed to an AHL all star team.

    And one last note: Quinn make me wonder if he's going Grandpa Simpson on us. I wonder if he thinks wolves are chasing him.

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  4. Doug Weight's reaction to Marchment's knee on knee

    My wife and I were discussing this very story a few days ago when the league said they weren't going to suspend Cooke, and how it was an example of taking justice into your own hands.

    (Yes, my wife remembers the Weight vs. Marchment incident. She is an exceptional woman.)

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  5. Lubomir's end-to-end rushes....Staios blocking things with every part of his body...Grebeshkov imagining pink elephants stampeding towards him as he rushed the puck...Khabibulin throwing the empty vodka bottle out the driver's side window...

    Priceless memories.

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  6. DBO - I'd include O'Sullivan too. Problem is that he, Cogliano and Brule are all the same player imo.

    And Johnson on the blue. Of course he is ufa.

    I don't even know if I'd include Pisani anymore and that really pains me to say that. Maybe as a fourth liner.

    And I wouldn't have JDD on my team. He's terrible. Not even as a backup I wouldn't have him.

    So there's seven forwards and three have to be absolutely sheltered. And if you want throw a couple of guys out there as fourth liners if you care to.

    Four blueliners under contract, two who are injury prone.

    One golatender, also injury prone.

    And even with the salary dumps they are in cap hell so where is the help going to come from? And even if you had the money who woudl sign with the Oilers? My guess is next year is going to be worse than this one.

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  7. @DBO:

    Good list, though I would suggest that Comrie has just as much a right to be listed as an "actual NHL player" than anyone else on that side of the ledger. Also, I'd be curious to know where you'd consider Jones, A. Johnson and Reddox on those lists.

    Going by what you have (and taking the liberty of adding Comrie to the "good" list), it breaks down as the Oilers having 8 actual NHL forwards, 4 dmen, and 2 goaltenders. Obviously, that's around 2/3 of their allowable NHL roster.

    Given that fact, and looking at this team's current standing as the undeniable worst team in the NHL for the 09/10 season, IMO it supports the idea that the current plight the Oilers find themselves in can be attributed to 2 key problems:

    1) A staggering amount of injuries to key players on the roster that the vast majority of NHL squads wouldn't be able to handle, given similar circumstances.

    2) The "actual NHL players" the Oilers employ simply aren't good enough on a consistent enough basis, and that Oiler fans may be guilty of overrating them a bit.

    Anyway, just my thoughts.

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  8. I'm another (relative) old-timer who also saw Blyleven from start to finish.

    Unlike most of today's MLB pitchers, he just threw the damn ball over the plate; and, essentially, dared the batter to hit it. Sometimes they did, but mostly they didn't.

    In today's game, a guy like this would be unbelievably valuable. When Burt first came up, teams could and did carry 9 or 10 pitchers. Now everyone has 12, because virtually nobody can pitch 200+ innings anymore. This kills roster flexibility and in-game moves.

    For fans of a more recent vintage, there are a lot of similarities between Blyleven and Roy Halliday -- IMO.

    And yes, that curveball was beauty.

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  9. And I wouldn't have JDD on my team. He's terrible. Not even as a backup I wouldn't have him.

    I think he'd be a great backup for a Vokoun or even a Kipper. All he has to do is play 8-10 times a year and steal one here and there. I think he's capable of that.

    It's the other 70 games a year that are a little suspect.

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  10. That Weight - Marchment incident was just about the end of me. My wife's brother used to live an hour from SJ and we went down there for Christmas that particular year. The Oil just happened to be in SJ while we were there so I got to go to my first Oilers road game.

    I had convinced myself that seeing as I was cheering for the visitors, I would sit there quietly and watch the game and not draw attention to myself. That strategy worked quite well for the first 5 minutes or so until Marchment went at Weight with one of the most deliberate knee on knees you are ever going to see. 39 stayed down for a long time, went to the bench and then ultimately to the dressing room, all the while not putting any weight at all on his knee. I've never been so sure that I guys knee was blown out in all my life and I bloody well lost it. I was screaming at Marchment, at the fans around me who all thought it was a perfectly clean hit and who insisted that Marchment had never done anything dirty before and of course at the refs (Devorski and Walkom) who completely missed the play. futurecaptainethanmoreau jumped Marchment and took an instigator for his troubles and Sean Brown and Owen Nolan went at it as well. Finally, Weight comes back on the ice and does a few circles during a TV timeout to see how the knee feels. Off the ensuing faceoff, the puck gets dumped into the Sharks zone and as the Sharks bring the puck up the ice, Weight flattens Marchment. It was the most beautiful thing I've ever seen. Of course Marchment sits there with a look on his face like he can't quite figure out why 39 was so pissed at him. Weight took a slashing minor, an instigator, a major for fighting, a double misconduct and a game misconduct and SJ got a 9 minute power play. Marchment walked away without anything happening to him. To this day it's probably the worst bit of officiating I've seen in watching sports for 30 years.

    Long story short, if that's possible at this point, is that Anson Carter scored a shortie during the extended power play while the Sharks didn't get a sniff. SJ eventually went up 2-1, but Dan Cleary scored with a minute to go and Tommy Salo on the bench and it ended 2-2.

    Funny thing, that game was 10+ years ago and I still get fired up thinking about it today. Our team may have been young and cheap, but man did they try hard and every game was must watch TV.

    Tonight, there will be a brief scuffle at my house for the 2 TV's. The wife will want to watch American Idol, the kids will want to watch Treehouse or YTV and I'll likely be bored enough to watch the Oil get blasted again. But I won't care enough to make an issue out of it with any of them and I'll likely just end up doing the dishes and read about the game later.

    My how times have changed. Thanks for nothing K-Lowe and Tambellini.

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  11. The Deslauriers-bashing has gotten to be a bit much. He's no wonder of the world, but he's played some really good games this year and shows more fire than anyone else on the team.

    Have to give that guy a shot with a decent squad in front of him next year. To not do so with a cheap, young, big, athletic goalie with a propensity for shutouts and near-shutouts with THIS team...would be crazy. (unless of course you land someone great which goes without saying)

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  12. No time to reminisce, theres a season at stake here. The magic number is at 9. If things go well tonight we can shave that sucker to 7.

    Focus people! Focus! ;)

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  13. The Deslauriers-bashing has gotten to be a bit much... he's played some really good games this year... Have to give that guy a shot... next year... a cheap, young, big, athletic goalie with a propensity for shutouts and near-shutouts

    Is that you Brownlee?

    Seriously, there is nothing worth keeping in JDD. Nothing at all. Keeping him is just abhorrent.

    I'm getting skeptical about Dubnyk too, but he's younger, so I'm okay with holding on to him on the roster if we're going to suck next year anyway.

    If I had my druthers, I'd waive or trade both. We're better off signing or trading for a guy who has more potential, a la Craig Anderson. Indeed, the problem with holding on to crappy goal prospects -my preciousssssss, my Dubnykkkkkk- is that you don't have a roster spot to grab a guy for cheap who might do really well.

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  14. I remember Weight-Marchment well. Marchment was the type of player that even when he was on your own team you could barely stand the guy. Claude Lemieux, Derian Hatcher and Chris Chelios are on that team also. Watching that clip (thnx Phil) reminded me how much I used to like Doug Weight. He was an excellent player and a stand up guy as a Captain. So was Jason Smith. How in the f&%k did we end up with Ethan Moreau?

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  15. LMHF - hey I've got plenty of fire in my belly too, doesn't make me an NHL goaltender

    I appreciate that the kid cares, that's nice, and yeah he's stolen a handful of games. He's also given plenty right back.

    if they run with him as the backup next year we will end up in the same boat most likely. Maybe that's the plan anyhow, with him in net its a lottery team all over again.

    You need your backup to be able to give you thirty games. He might steal you a handful but he'd better not give away the same amount and he had better be consistent enough that if your starter goes down for a few weeks your season isn't going to go with him.

    What I know about goaltending is pretty well nothing but the guy isn't 20 or 21. I'm thinking what we see is what we get and its not much.

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  16. It's our religion. We do not apologize for it, we do not deny it. They are our team, our family, our life, our OILERS.
    Go Wild!!


    Fixed that for ya, PJ Oil.

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  17. kris: At this point it would not stun me if we cleared the cupboard in goalies this summer. It'd be a real admission that procurement bombed on JDD & DD, but so far neither has shown enough (imo).

    But if I were to bet right now, my sense is they trade the one who might bring back more than a bag of pucks rather than lose one for nothing at the draft.

    At times, JDD has shown well, but his positioning is just awful. He reminds me of Nuke La Loosh and is in need of a Crash Davis at this point if he's to ever make something of himself.

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  18. To this day it's probably the worst bit of officiating I've seen in watching sports for 30 years.

    I popped a vein watching that and have never recovered. ;) I remember just curling into a little ball and mumbling "39 minutes to zero! 39 minutes to zero!!!!!" over and over.

    How terrible a ref was Stephen Walkom? Stephen Walkom was so fucking terrible as a ref they made him referee in chief.

    I still remember the time I put a game on video while I went out observing, and came home late but awake so watched the third period. The Oilers were playing in Colorado, and Walkom was the ref. 6 hours after the fact, but "live" to me. It's 4 a.m. though so I'm watching with the volume low, just internally groaning and grimacing as things start to turn against us. The Oilers actually did alright against the Avs, even had the lead in the third, but had no chance against Walkom. He just bent us over the boards and raped us repeatedly. A whole series of cheap, and getting cheaper, penalties, all one way while there are absolutely no rules whatsoever going the other way. Colorado ties it on one powerplay and then Walkom gives them another, and then they knock the goalie down and jam the puck home in the melee and of course it's all good. So I finally lose it and am yelling at my TV to the point that my wife awakes and comes out to (try to) calm me down. Not a proud moment, but I still blame Walkom. :) It was one of those games where you wished there was one honest man somewhere in the league hierarchy that could just flat out fire a guy right on the spot for gross incompetence. Come out right in the middle of the game, take his fucking whistle, and send him to the showers.

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  19. BDHS: That's a pretty good summation of what a NHL back-up goaltender's job description should be. I don't think JDD is up to the job either.

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  20. Bruce: I used to feel that way whenever Mark Faucette was the reffing an Oiler's game. He seemed to have a genuine hate for the Oil and we never got any calls when he was on the ice. I had a big smile the day he was fired.

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  21. I remember Weight-Marchment well. Marchment was the type of player that even when he was on your own team you could barely stand the guy.

    I became a fan of the oilers going to the President choice section as a student. Sitting up in the upper level, watch marchment make the cut accross to destroy players. Use to laugh at how many avoided his side or turned back up to Center ice as he approached.

    Won't forget the gordie howe interview at the time. Asked if he was to build a team to name the first player at each position he would start with. He said marchment on D. I went Whaaaa????

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  22. Boynton cleared re-entry waivers, for those who wanted the guy.

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  23. As a goaltender I will say this, quick counts, and consistency comes with maturity for many of us. JDD is very quick.

    What is killing him is that he moves around too much, falls back into his net when his confidence sags, and goes down too soon. That is all fixable. He is huge and quick and you can't teach either reflexes or size.

    Meanwhile he has been good enough to win in 23 games this year and horrible (though he has had some help) in 18. He is playing in front of a team that is what 2nd or 3rd in shots given up, dead last in shots taken, and spends days trapped in their own end (though lately we have been a bit better.)

    I think you are all, in your scapegoating rushing to judgement about a relatively young man who could be a very valuable piece moving forward (a value goaltender with big upside if he ever fixes his mechanical problems). Will it take time to fix what is wrong with his game at this level? Absolutely. Will patience be required? Certainly.

    Lets consider though

    5 12 3 1 .904 3.03 $1,400,000 Marty Biron
    14 24 3 3 .901 3.16 $625,000 JDD
    or
    7 9 2 0 3.03 $3,750,000 Khabibulin

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  24. Some things seem to etch in one's memory.

    Billy Morris skating miles like a demon possessed and the fans clapping their appreciation for his gutsy effort. Problem was he could not score.

    Bill Flett standing behind the Oiler wives/girlfriends (Sather's wife was particularly foxy) where they all used to sit at the top of the reds in one of the corners. Flett was injured and he looked so cool in his cowboy hat with the feathers.

    Peca at Century Grill the night of the Pronger and Peca announcement ("The calvary is here" said Lowe). I saw Peca, with that full 3 days of stubble, getting into a black Mercedes with a knockout blonde behind the wheel and he looked very unhappy. Unhappy about the trade I think, not the blonde.

    People remember exactly where they were when they heard Kennedy was shot or when Princess Di died. Maybe that will happen again when we hear Lowe and Tambellini have been fired.

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  25. According to TSN: NEW NO. 1: SEGUIN TOPS ISS DRAFT RANKINGS FOR MARCH

    http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=314247

    We'll be hanging on the edge of our seats right up until that moment in June.

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  26. I guess what I see in Deslauriers is that ability to go into "lock it down" mode where nothing's getting by. Some goalies you never ever see this from, but he's got it. You can work with that. His numbers aren't terrible, he's got 3 SOs playing for the 30th place team. I'm not sure you guys look at goalies the way you look at other players...

    There's a guy with a .920 save percentage and 3 SO's playing for STL who I'm sure you'd all butcher if I said he was doing alright too.

    Color me confuzzled.

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  27. What is killing him is that he moves around too much, falls back into his net when his confidence sags, and goes down too soon. That is all fixable.

    In principle it might be fixable, but either JDD is a bad student or he needs a new teacher. I posted this after the Joey Moss cup back in September 2008:

    I definitely didn't see JDD [positively]. I felt he was awfully scrambly and was losing track of the puck way too easily

    Two years older and two years of pro hockey later, and I don't think that assessment has changed a whole lot.

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  28. I will admit that you can tell how Deslauriers is playing by watching how he stands while the puck is in the other net. He's definitely got a lot of body language going on in the net. He does need to work on being more consistent. The thing is, that despite less than ideal development conditions to say the least, he's improved. Why wouldn't we think he has more in there?

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  29. RG: Thanks for bringing up that incident:) I was home visiting my mother for the holidays and my uncle was hacking BEV so I went in there at like 12 am to watch the game and me and my cousin had a couple of beer.

    I loved Weight and those teams felt like mine and I was very proud of the club at night's end.

    I was living and dying with the club back then and i wish I could get it back.

    The feeling of escapism was wonderful.

    All I feel now is anger and apathy.

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  30. Let me add,

    there are 79 goaltenders in the NHL right now

    JDD is

    19th in total saves
    top 10 in saves per game
    14th in shutouts
    41st in save percentage

    Could his problems be in part that we are a crap team?

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  31. I'm just glad the year we decide to finish dead last, we have a 2-horse race for the #1. Would have sucked to be a position like this in a Crosby vs. Bobby Ryan style draft. While the reward would have been great, the heartbreak of losing the lottery in a year like that would have been incredible.

    I believe these are the records needed to pass the Leafs and face the prospect of sliding to 3rd overall in the draft:

    Toronto - 4-8-1
    Edmonton - 8-3-2

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  32. Are there guys who cold do better than JDD? Sure.

    Give us Thomas Vokoun and Dan Ellis and we'd be drafting 5-7 over all. In other words with truly elite goaltending (and it would be hard to imagine a better tandem) we'd still be bad. Things have gone off the trolley tracks here and until we fix the real problems nobody is going to look good in net.

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  33. I'll throw my hat on the JDD bus as well. He has been inconsistent for sure, but that's a young person thing. And he is a big body with some quicks. As they say in basketball, you can't teach size.

    I seem to remember that Fleury was pretty inconsistent for his first couple of years, but Pittsburgh was pretty patient with him. There's no reason not to be patient with JDD for the remainder of the season and even next, since we're not going anywhere anytime soon.

    Dubnyk on the other hand needs to go back to the minors. At least 2 softies in last night's game. Yipes.

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  34. Edmonton - 8-3-2

    Hahaha! Hohoho!! Hehehe!!!

    PJ Oil, you can sleep well, my friend. We can't even beat Toronto or Columbus, let alone an NHL team.

    @Lebowski: Thanks for Billy Morris. That was one name that slipped through the ever-widening cracks of memory. He was one fun player to watch, even if the results never seemed to equal the effort.

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  35. Both JDD and DD have a penchant for letting in softies right now.

    There's no doubt that some of this could be mental fatigue. Go figure, you face a barrage night after night and you get tired.

    Also, you're not used to playing this much. As stated, his development has been less than idea (from how the org has handled him).

    There's no doubt that there is a crappy team in front of him.

    But, his athleticism can't completely overcome those technical issues (to deep in net, going down early too often). And DD has some of the same issues (if you haven't noticed this).

    Perhaps Chabot is working with him on this and correcting the legacy of Pete Peeters? Or is he making it worse?

    I don't have that answer because it's too soon, but right now he's all over the place and that's not always good. Management will have to make some decisions in net about this summer, ones that also include Khabibulin and the possibility that injury is a factor moving forward for the rest of his contract.

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  36. Everybody I am sure has favorite Expos -- pitchers and every day players but for unbelievable pitching mastery I would take Pedro because when he was on--- his stuff was untouchable. El Presidente had the no-no, Rogers was probably the best craftsman as a pitcher, Charlie Lea might have the best stuff.....but Pedro when he had command of his pitches it was a very short game with few opposing players on base.

    The Oilers this year have been absolutely unwatchable. I have given away more tickets this year than in any previous year and have watched less Oiler hockey -- in person and on TV in any year of their history dating back to the WHA

    But a "Detroit", "Pittsburgh", "Chicago" rebuild is just around the corner notwithstanding that we have no one that fits the profile of those teams top 3-4 players

    Loved MC79's post on his own site of "I would be scouring the second and third lines of the really good teams that are tight to the cap, looking for players who might be able to play bigger roles and teams that can’t afford to pay people for potential"

    Excellent analysis of alternate ways that the Oilers can gain a series of incremental advantages at relatively low monetary cost

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  37. http://forum.canucks.com/topic/267664-iss-rankings-march-2010/

    Not very many small boys in the top 30 NA skaters.

    Will the Oilers draft Weal at 31 so they have a matched set?

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  38. @ The other John: I've recommended to MC79 that he email his post to Stauffer and Gregor with copies to the Oiler bosses. But I'm not sure the bosses will be able to understand the logic of it all.

    Maybe Stauffer can figure it out and pass it on.

    On the other hand it may be below the dignity of the bosses to pay any heed to a mere fan. I mean what do we know anyway--(see JW and MC79 on the Khabibulin singing)?

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  39. Well maybe Tambo was "singing" about Khabby.

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  40. Could his problems be in part that we are a crap team?

    If we were talking about GAA or wins, sure. We give up a ton of shots and suck, but nobody is burying him for simply not getting a shutout every game (or piling our non-playoff status on him.) However, he's one of the most obvious broken legs on a dog that needs to be put down and it's hard to make an argument for keeping him unless we're planning to lose for the next half decade.

    The kid is 42nd out of 50 in the league in terms of ESSV% (15+ games started.) If we're going to get back into the 'maybe we just give up more Grade A chances than everyone' debate then, well, Khabibulin is 17th on this list and, up until a week or two ago, played behind the same defense.

    This team is garbage and JDD isn't the reason they're in the basement, but at the end of the day, if JDD is Roloson for all of those ES shots, we've given up 12 fewer goals (good for two wins). 17 fewer goals with Biron (three wins!). 25 fewer goals with Anderson (four wins!). None of those goaltenders are on good defensive teams yet they produce because they're better goaltenders than JDD.

    In short, JDD isn't a good goaltender. You can hope and pray he becomes one, but I personally don't find it worthwhile to do so.

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  41. Lebo

    It is exactly the type of innovative thinking that MC and others are advocating that can take a 4-5 year rebuild and to make it something that can be done in 2-3 years. Upgrade players at every level of your roster at reasonable dollars

    The goal is to have a team that can compete for the Western Conference finals/SCF on a perennial basis........not fight tooth and nail for 8th to 10th in the West

    Active Cap management is something else someone on the Oil MUST do as well because paying $55 millions for a 25th to 30th place team next year is insane.

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  42. LMHF - I don't think we're going to agree which is fine of course.

    The kid can get hot and he can steal a game but nearly anyone can. Remember Brian Boucher's streak? How about a guy named Steve Penney from the 80s? or Jim Carey?

    My problem with JDD is that he has stunk out the joint in as many games as he has starred.

    And on top of that he gives up a softie or two per game on top of it.

    So he wins you ten games outright and loses you ten games outright and in every other game he's out of position once or twice or he's getting beat upstairs over and over again.

    The team is crap but the team was crap three springs ago and Roloson wasn't the guy costing them a thing back then.

    Dubnyk I'll give a break because he's younger although getting beat up top short side on Saturday night was absolutely unforgiveable.

    JDD is no longer a prospect though, imo. Unless he's the second coming of Tom Thimas.

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  43. 8-3-2

    Hahaha. We have 21 wins in 69 games. 8 of those wins came in the first 17 games of the season. 13 wins in the rest of the 52 games. And that includes the flukey 5 game winning streak.

    The race is over, we've got first locked up. Just one less reason to watch the games...

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  44. Lebowski: I recommend staying away from Weal at the draft. Besides his miniature stature, and that the Oilers have many similar munchkins, is that he is part of a long lineage of CHL mini-me's who score lots against teenagers and won't do the same against the men.

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  45. I must admit, I have never posted on here, although I have been reading the site faithfully for about 2 years now. And it is pure quality. First thing I check every morning.

    With all the talk about the draft right now, I just want to throw out a name of a guy who we should target in the 3rd round or 1st pick of the 4th round. Tyler Stahl of the Chilliwack Bruins.

    I've had the pleasure of watching Tyler play midget hockey and even some shinny with him. The kids not that big, but he has adapted really fast at the WHL level and is known as a lethal hitter. He has been in at least a dozen fights this year, all because he has annihilated some guy with his head down. Seeing him go from Midget AA to the WHL has been impressive. He has a warrior mentality and that's something I think the OTC and us as well, could all get behind and follow as a project.

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  46. Not sure if this YouTube clip of Weight taking out Marchment has been posted yet.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_TnjNHXWw4

    I loved the guys on that team.

    The coach too.

    Makes me a little sad...

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  47. Blyleven curve, Steib slider, Morris forkball, and a Clemens heater.

    Now that would be one hell of a pitcher.

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  48. My lineup for next year:

    xxxxx - xxxxx - xxxxx
    xxxxx - xxxxx - xxxxx
    xxxxx - xxxxx - xxxxx
    xxxxx - xxxxx - xxxxx

    xxxxx - xxxxx
    xxxxx - xxxxx
    xxxxx - xxxxx

    xxxxx
    xxxxx

    Hey, a squirrel just totally fell out of that tree! Seriously, right outside the window!

    ReplyDelete
  49. How terrible a ref was Stephen Walkom?

    I see your Walkom and raise you one Marc Joanette - the most anti-Oiler ref I've ever witnessed.

    ReplyDelete
  50. One of my students told me about this guy, someone he played against last year. I think he is someone I will keep an eye on for the next few years. 6.0 feet and 166lbs at age 15 is nothing to sneeze at. Plus apparently in his call-up to the WHL he is already levelling guys.

    He won't be draftable for a few more years, but playing in the WHL is probably the best place to develop for him. Who knows, he might be good and the Oilers should still be drafting early when he is eligible (if the kid stays good that is).

    Oh, are the Oilers playing tonight? Hmm. Give DD the start and hopefully 18's neck is hurting him again.

    ReplyDelete
  51. I always hated Magoo with his stupid over the top antics and blown calls that always seemed to screw over Edmonton.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Tyler Stahl of the Chilliwack Bruins.

    Seen him quite a bit. Not much of a player in the WHL yet, but probably the biggest hitter I've ever seen and he's still only 17.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHC52d-p0mA

    Skip ahead to 1:00, the video has about 5 or 6 massive hits by Stahl (#7). Also of note is Kevin Sundher (#9), ranked in the 2nd-3rd round this year.

    ReplyDelete
  53. One of my students told me about this guy, someone he played against last year. I think he is someone I will keep an eye on for the next few years. 6.0 feet and 166lbs at age 15 is nothing to sneeze at. Plus apparently in his call-up to the WHL he is already levelling guys.

    You think that kid is a beast you should look at local kid Duncan Siemens. He was 6'2" 185lbs as a 15 year old. Not sure how you build a kid like that.

    And he's going in the top 10 of the draft next year. If the Oilers are out of the playoffs again I hope we get him.

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  54. Oilman - Between Walkom, Joanette and VanMassenhoven, we've been seriously hooped over the years.

    If not for that STUPID "hand pass" call, McG wouldn't be so hated. Sure he looks like a goof when reffing, but he's not amazingly terrible like Walkom was.

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  55. I recommend staying away from Weal at the draft. Besides his miniature stature, and that the Oilers have many similar munchkins, is that he is part of a long lineage of CHL mini-me's who score lots against teenagers and won't do the same against the men.


    Despite not actually having seen Weal in live play, I'm definitely his strongest supporter here. When you put up those kinds of numbers in your draft year, someone should be taking notice. This isn't a 19/20 year old outscoring the 15-16 year old dregs, this is a guy that's holding his own and outscoring our current Regina wunderkid at the same age.

    Exactly how tall is Martin St. Louis? How about Patrick Kane?

    Because that's the player I see.

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  56. And since I'm on my Blades stump I want to give props to the Avalanche prospect Stefan Elliott. (Who should have been on the WJC team and didn't even get an invite)

    He was awarded defenseman of the year and team MVP.

    He had 26 goals 39 assists for 65 points while only accruing 24 penalty minutes and a team lead +41.

    ReplyDelete
  57. I have seen Weal play and I will say the kid busts his ass out there. I don't know how he'll do with less ice to operate but I wouldn't rage if Edmonton used the Nashville pick to draft him.

    ReplyDelete
  58. This team is Kevin Lowes. EVERY player has been traded for, or resigned to long term extensions under his watch.

    Nine years under his command and the team continues to slide backwards with no apparent plan.

    How he keeps his job I'll never know, it makes you wonder how bad the team has to get in order for that to happen.

    I am guessing he is safe until ticket revenues start to drop, Mr Katz will be forced to do something once that happens.

    The team is years away from being competitive. I am not sure some of the existing veterans will want to hang around that long.

    They have 14 players signed through next year, 7 signed through the year after that.

    Of the 14, O'Sullivan, Nilsson, Moreau, and Souray are frequently mentioned as leaving this summer, leaving 10.

    The number one goalie may or may not be finished.

    Several players have large contracts that render them untradeable.

    I can't think of a reason why Hemsky or Penner would want to stick around to wait for things to get better. Ditto Souray. Wouldn't be suprised to see some trade requests come in after the season finsihes. Kevin is very amenable to that sort of thing.

    They have 21 RFA's and UFA's to sort through this summer and decide who to resign.

    So they hype the future and talk about being an exciting young team, Boys on the Bus V2.0.

    Jagr is not going to sign here, give him more credit than that. No UFA will unless we overpay them massively.

    So they load up on draft picks and ice a young squad and lay out a 5 year plan to win the cup.

    Take it to the bank...

    ReplyDelete
  59. By my quick calculations, Weal's NHLE projects to 12-23-35 for his 17-year old season.

    To continue my comparison Eberle went 15-11-26 in his 17-year old season.

    I'll freely admit that Kane beat his ass soundly and it looks as though St. Louis did too (my math may be off here but I've got him somewhere in the range of 50 points).

    ReplyDelete
  60. //How in the f&%k did we end up with Ethan Moreau?//

    He was MacT's guy.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Tyler Stahl of the Chilliwack Bruins

    Great, there's a Tyler Stahl. The Oilers will so screw this up. I can see it now:

    Tambellini: Come on Stu, who're we picking? Is it Taylor or Tyler? Gary's waiting for me to go up there and plus with all these free Dr. Peppers I gotta pee something fierce!

    McGregor: Tyler....we're picking Tyler! Go, GO, Go.

    Tambelini: With the first overall pick, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select Tyler Stahl.


    *As Tyler Stahl walks bewildered to the podium, Tambelini thinks to himslef* "Who the fuck is that kid?"
    Pierre McGuire spontaneously combusts.

    ReplyDelete
  62. So, Seguin is ranked #1 by RLR and ISS now...

    Oilers have all but publicly stated they want Hall and nobody else.

    We're actually going to find a way to fuck this up, aren't we?

    ReplyDelete
  63. doritogrande: Remember that Weal plays on a team that was one of the worst defensively in the WHL this season. This is even more interesting when you consider they had prospects like Eberle, Teubert, and Ashton in their line-up. I just don't see the advantage in using a draft pick on Weal unless he is kicking around late similar to Rajala in 2009.

    ReplyDelete
  64. //How in the f&%k did we end up with Ethan Moreau?//

    He was MacT's guy.


    Much like Marty Reasoner, who just signed a fat extension with the Oilers two years ago.

    Wait, what?

    ReplyDelete
  65. It took Craig Anderson till he was 27 to be a competent back and 30 till he was a competent starter. It is why drafting goaltenders high should be the exception, rather than the rule.

    The decision with Dubnyk is simple. The Oilers need a good goaltender to make an impression next year in Oklahoma, so you sign him to a 1-year one year deal at near the NHL minimum to play in the AHL (or a two-year two-way deal).

    Deslauriers is more complicated. IF the Oilers had a #1 to rely on, I think JDD has shown enough (potential and results) to be the backup goaltender. But with Khabibulin's situation, the case can be made to cut bait and get a more proven backup goaltender.

    ReplyDelete
  66. First off, Cristobal Huet, Pascal Leclaire, Jonas Gustavsson, Mike Smith, Steve Mason, Alex Auld, Brian Boucher, Vesa Toskala, and Chris Osgood.
    Those guys are all playing worse than JDD.

    Notice the phenoms, Mason, Leclaire, Gustavsson, and Smith (God, Smith deserved the Vezina on a terrible team, yet there he is struggling). Goaltending isn't a predictable profession. Guys like Tim Thomas prove that. What has Huet been before this year, about .927 sv% since the lockout? Something like that. Yet here he is, in front of an incredible defense and the leagues most dynamic offense and he is stinking up the joint. Good teams generally make their netminders look better, so think how bad he is playing.

    Second, I think some of JDDs critics are making the mistake of thinking of him as a possible #1, which he is very unlikely to ever be. This year for JDD should have been 30 relatively sheltered (66%) or hopeless games (33%). Instead he is caring the load for a horrible team.

    JDD in no way has the experience to be in the situation he finds himself in, that is largely thanks to management's inept player development. The kid is learning on the job and its ugly. That doesn't mean he isn't gaining valuable experience.

    I'm guessing based on progression that JDD is a .905-.910 next year with a high standard deviation in save percentage from game to game but one that narrows over his career. In other words an erratic but occasionally dominant back up that will probably always give away as many games as he outright wins. The test will be what happens in the games where he is neither dominant or awful but somewhere in between.

    The true test of a back up is what % of starts does he give you a chance to win? Right now JDD is at 56%. If he can get that up to 70% (and it will rise with an improved Oiler offense simply because you have to play worse to lose in front of a higher scoring team in order to lose) he is a valuable backup. At .908 and 70% of his games giving up three goals or less he'd be Dan Ellis, for less money. That is certainly achievable for JDD. Stop looking at him through the prism of a prospective starter and start thinking of him as a career back up with some nice things.

    ReplyDelete
  67. I haven't seen ONE thing that convinces me that Dubnyk is any way, shape or form better than JDD. I don't see how so many people are crucifying JDD on one hand, then thinking that DD has potential.

    I think they're both bad, and Dubnyk is worse.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Heck, Roli wasn't a useful goalie until he was well into his 40's!!!

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  69. So presuming we do dump JDD and somehow keep Dubnyk in the minors, who do we get to backup Khabi and the start the season when he gets injured or jailed?

    Here's a list of UFA Goalies, from Capgeek.com:

    Turco, Marty » G 34 DAL $5,700,000 2010 (UFA)
    Nabokov, Evgeni » G 34 SAN $5,375,000 2010 (UFA)
    Theodore, Jose » G 33 WAS $4,500,000 2010 (UFA)
    Toskala, Vesa » G 32 CGY $4,000,000 2010 (UFA)
    Mason, Chris » G 33 STL $3,000,000 2010 (UFA)
    Ellis, Dan » G 29 NAS $1,750,000 2010 (UFA)
    Emery, Ray » G 27 PHI $1,500,000 2010 (UFA)
    Biron, Martin » G 32 NYI $1,400,000 2010 (UFA)
    Budaj, Peter » G 27 COL $1,250,000 2010 (UFA)
    Hedberg, Johan » G 36 ATL $1,087,500 2010 (UFA)
    Lalime, Patrick » G 35 BUF $1,000,000 2010 (UFA)
    Auld, Alex » G 29 NYR $1,000,000 2010 (UFA)
    Backlund, Johan » G 28 PHI $800,000 2010 (UFA)
    Valiquette, Steve » G 32 NYR $725,000 2010 (UFA)
    MacDonald, Joey » G 30 ANA $650,000 2010 (UFA)
    Niittymaki, Antero » G 29 TBL $600,000 2010 (UFA)
    Sanford, Curtis » G 30 MTL $600,000 2010 (UFA)
    Dubielewicz, Wade » G 31 MIN $600,000 2010 (UFA)
    Leighton, Michael » G 28 PHI $600,000 2010 (UFA)
    Johnson, Brent » G 33 PIT $525,000 2010 (UFA)
    Brodeur, Mike » G 26 OTT $520,000 2010 (UFA)
    Legace, Manny » G 37 CAR $500,000 2010 (UFA)
    Danis, Yann » G 28 NJD $500,000 2010 (UFA)
    Raycroft, Andrew » G 29 VAN $500,000 2010 (UFA)


    Best bets?

    ReplyDelete
  70. Ugh.

    Why not sign a better backup goalie? It's not a choice between JDD and an empty net.

    Is there no one available who is better than JDD, with the potential to improve, who can be had for the same price? Last offseason we had a chance to try to sign a decent young backup, in Anderson, but we hung on to JDD for fear that he might turn into something great even though there is nothing in his record suggesting that was plausible or more than just wishful thinking. Why keep repeating history with JDD?

    ReplyDelete
  71. Goaltending isn't a predictable profession. Guys like Tim Thomas prove that. What has Huet been before this year, about .927 sv% since the lockout? Something like that. Yet here he is, in front of an incredible defense and the leagues most dynamic offense and he is stinking up the joint. Good teams generally make their netminders look better, so think how bad he is playing.

    This a fantastic example of what Vic calls an Thinker A type thinking in action. (http://vhockey.blogspot.com/)

    ReplyDelete
  72. I probably wouldn't dump JDD. If you can get a real good back up with upside (which I'm not sure is available this season), then just dump JDD back into the minors.

    He and DD could split starts and hopefully one of them starts looking capable of being a backup.

    The you also have JDD available as a third string if Khabibulin gets injured again next year.

    ReplyDelete
  73. http://www.doritosviralocity.ca/Gallery/VideoDetails.aspx?v=422541

    I know this isn't hockey related, but me and my buds did a video for the Doritos Virolacity contest. Be nice if you guys'd check it out.

    TY!

    As a sidenote: Woo hoo for Nilsson. Rack some more points boy!

    Seen the Nilsson-Gagner-Pouliot line good. Pouliot seems like a useful 3 LW man.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Here you go.

    http://www.justin.tv/directory/sports/hockey?order=hot&lang=en#r=xPUXee8~

    ReplyDelete
  75. Tencer Twit...

    Steve Tambellini on Eberle playing at the NHL level for a couple games this year: "I don't think so."

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  76. http://www.justin.tv/hockeyfor2day01#r=BrZFUgA~

    This one's a little fuzzy.

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  77. Gagner seems to have some problems lately picking up his assignments on the way back into the defensive zone.

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  78. Nice of JD to get out of the way on that one.

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  79. I think JDD forgets about the dimensions of the net sometimes. There occasions when he'll slide too far or he'll roll around like a whale and of course there's the one where he almost falls back into the crossbar.

    I had the Oilers outchanced at 1-8 and it was a rough period for the 2/49 pairing with a collective 0/8 for that duo.

    In what I consider to be cool news the Devils are going with their old school gear - red and green - for tomorrow night's huge game vs the Pens; Brodeur's going with a replica of his old mask from back in the day and he's had some specially coloured sticks made as well.

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  80. JDD has never - and I repeat NEVER - shown any form of elite performance at any level from CHL-AHL-NHL. What makes anyone think that he will suddenly discover this level of play now? There is less than zero evidence for this proposition and plenty to the contrary. If we want a Steve Valliquette clone as a backup - then why not just sign the real one and quit wasting time - he’s a UFA this summer. Offer JDD a two way deal and if he refuses - who cares - plenty of other guys can provide similar backup numbers for the same money.

    As for DD - he’s obviously in over his head but two full years behind JDD - so worth keeping on a 2 way deal next season. But he clearly should be in the AHL for one more full season before making a final decision. I’d actually make his NHL cap number relatively high to discourage anyone picking him up off waivers - but it’s probably not much of an issue - his play this season in the NHL has done more than enough to accomplish that ;)

    ReplyDelete
  81. Dennis: You mean like this?

    http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/08/re-09-10-jeff-deslauriers.html

    ReplyDelete
  82. http://new.vexcast.com/watch-p2p=BLVBLVEOY

    vexcast feed.. it's a couple minutes delayed though. It's the sportsnet feed though.

    ReplyDelete
  83. What makes anyone think that he will suddenly discover this level of play now?

    I may be reading too much into your choice of words, Asia, but I think part of the problem here comes from your use of the word "suddenly". I don't see anyone here (or elsewhere) saying JDDs establishment as a solid NHL goalie is going to be a case of a light coming on and him "suddenly" becoming consistent.

    Goalie development, as many people here have said, is a slow and wildly unpredictable path. Betting on goalies is not for the faint of heart. But JDD has a lot of the right tools and his glaring problems (getting too deep in his net, going down too early) are ones that can be fixed.

    Remember that while we talk about him having two years' NHL experience, I would argue that he was played so infrequently last year that he was probably more likely to have regressed than shown any meaningful progress.

    I'm not certain that JDD will ever be a reliable NHL goalie, either as a starter or as a backup and I don't know if Edmonton is going to be in a position to have the luxury of waiting several years to find out. But what I am certain of, and I think I speak for a few people here, is that it is too early in his development to write him off as never going to make it.

    Of course he's not going to "suddenly" discover a new level of play. But holding that kind of instant (or rapid) transformation up as the pass/fail criteria is a short-sighted and flawed view of goalie development.

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  84. That Strudwick is the puck-moving-offensive-defenseman we've been looking for all year. We'd better sign him before somebody swoops in and grabs him when he's a UFA this summer. 12 years, $60 million, but he'll only play for the first 8 years, so we can keep the cap hit managable (for the first cap, although the hit for the second cap could be problematic).

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  85. Is there a tougher job in broadcasting than Quinn and Debrusk having to come up with the disingenuous laugh whenever Gene makes an a$$ of himself.

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  86. I'm a bit surprised at all the JDD hate. While there is plenty of room for improvement, his performance through his first 50 NHL games is probably pretty typical of NHL goalies. He is certainly within his "reasonable expectations" http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/08/re-09-10-jeff-deslauriers.html

    I don't see any reason to write the guy off, and without a doubt he has been better than DD.

    ReplyDelete
  87. R3: It's damning with faint praise. He's ahead of my projected numbers but my prediction implied he'd fail.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Hey IC,

    Interesting.

    "Goalie development, as many people here have said, is a slow and wildly unpredictable path. Betting on goalies is not for the faint of heart."

    What does this have to do with JDD? If this is a reason to keep JDD it's a reason to do anything with any goalie. I can hear Tamb. now: "We signed Pitton as our starter." "You did what?!" "Well, goalies are unpredictable; it's not for the faint of heart. Etc., etc.," (BTW, I said exactly this in defending the Khabibulin trade, i.e. that "goalies are voodoo," and I wish beyond all wishes that I could go back in time and kick myself in the balls to not look so wrong.)


    "But JDD has a lot of the right tools and his glaring problems (getting too deep in his net, going down too early) are ones that can be fixed."

    Disagree and disagree. Positioning is very tough to learn, IMO. (Back me up goalies.) So far JDD's tools seem to be size and some quickness, but that's not nearly enough. This idea about JDD, is like holding on to a forward because he has some serious stick handling skills: doesn't mean he can play in the NHL. And if we're talking about subjective things we see in JDD's game, his glove hand looks absolutely unfixable to me.

    Of course he's not going to "suddenly" discover a new level of play. But holding that kind of instant (or rapid) transformation up as the pass/fail criteria is a short-sighted and flawed view of goalie development.

    That's a red herring. And I don't think Asia really meant "suddenly" in any serious way. Just loose talk, which you're trying to use against him to pin him on some point that isn't really part of his argument.

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  89. Moreau is on a breakaway and gets hooked and the refs hand goes up. Why am I thinking that it's probably a penalty on thecaptain?

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  90. LT: Sure, but not exactly ideal circumstances either.

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  91. Oh and,

    it is too early in his development to write him off as never going to make it.

    That's true of a lot of goalies, some of whom are available for a song, some are even free agents. The question isn't whether he can make it. Any goalie can make it. The question is, given his past performance what are the odds that he will make it as even a decent backup? How plausible is it? And is it more plausible that he'll make it than someone else you could sign or trade for cheap?

    ReplyDelete
  92. We had a little bit of progress here with 18 at least taking a penalty in his own zone.

    I have the chances as 5-20 after 40 min.

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  93. Let's try this another way. Here are the NHL rookie goalies this season and their SP's:

    1. Rask .928
    2. Howard .925
    3. Neuvirth .915
    4. Varlamov .911
    5. Deslauriers .901
    6. Gustafsson .898

    That's rookies based on nhl.com's list and they've all played 15 or more NHL games this season.

    If there's an expansion draft and these are the available goalies, where do you rank JDD?

    ReplyDelete
  94. Moreau is on a breakaway and gets hooked and the refs hand goes up. Why am I thinking that it's probably a penalty on thecaptain?

    lol

    I particularly liked the part where he skated the puck out of the zone and into his own end because he didn't want to give up possession of the puck. One of these days he's going to score into his own empty net because he forget which way he was supposed to be going.

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  95. Icecastles.....as kris said I didn't mean or expect he will make any sudden progress - just the opposite. I expect JDD to keep showing us what he has already demonstrated year after year....that he is a mediocre goalie. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise aside from some unjustified hope based on "potential". He is what he is - a mediocre goalie - so why bother wasting any more time on him?

    ReplyDelete
  96. Was that an IceDragoon sighting? Hi Louise!

    I was actually going to cite that wise lady, as I'm pretty sure she is the one who came up with "calm feet", usually pertaining to defencemen. Way too many nights, JDD doesn't have calm feet. That's close to a fatal flaw for a goalie.

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  97. A couple of nice plays by Gagner tonight. Won a battle and made a nice pass on the first goal, and made a beauty pass to Potulny for his goal.

    He's a fine young player.

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  98. I have to say I'm liking Ryan Whitney so far. If his right foot is slowing him down then I'm looking forward to him getting surgery in the offseason.

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  99. How low has 18 sunk when Robbie Earle easily sheds your check in the d-zone to create a chance.

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  100. What does this have to do with JDD?

    Everything: he's a goalie. Different evaluation criteria, different development curves.

    If this is a reason to keep JDD it's a reason to do anything with any goalie.

    Not exactly, but what you say isn't as crazy as you probably meant it to sound. The Oilers have a lot of time and money invested in JDD at this point. The question is at what point do you cut bait and move on, and my argument is that you don't do it as early as you might with, say, a skilled forward who has good stick-handling skills and little else.

    BTW, I said exactly this in defending the Khabibulin trade...

    Khabibulin has been around long enough that it's pretty safe to say you know exactly what you have in him: a good (once great) goalie who is already moving into his twilight years and has never managed a full season due to injury. No-one expected his injury situation would be *this* bad this year, but on the whole, I don't think we know anything about Khabi's contract or condition today that wasn't at least in the backs of our minds in August.

    Positioning is very tough to learn, IMO. (Back me up goalies.)

    I am a goalie, which is why it's one of the few aspects of the game (along with management) I write at some length about. And yes, it is tough to learn, though it is absolutely a learnable skill.

    Your point about the glove hand though... man, when I was writing that post, I was hoping no one would mention Deslaurier's glove. It's just fucking awful. And it's one thing that seriously worries me about the guy.

    That's a red herring. And I don't think Asia really meant "suddenly" in any serious way.

    Yup, which is why I started the post by saying, "I may be reading too much into your choice of words..." Nevertheless, there are two things about that: first, it bugs me when people use deliberately over-the-top language to make a point.

    Repeating parts of AO's post (emphasis mine):
    What makes anyone think that he will suddenly discover this level of play now? ... just sign the real one and quit wasting time...

    It's a flippant technique that diminishes the quality of debate. Secondly, I have no idea how literally he meant it - we'd have to ask AO, though after reading our responses, I can probably guess what he'd say. He probably didn't mean JDD would or would not have an 'instant' turnaround. But I have to assume that unless someone is being sarcastic (which I don't see in AO's post), they must on some level believe what they are saying. So I gave him the benefit of the doubt and took him (roughly) at his word. He seems like an honest and direct guy.

    And Kolbassa just put another one past him, so maybe I should just shut up. At least it wasn't over his g.d. glove again. :)

    ReplyDelete
  101. For fuck's sake, Chorney is useless.

    On the one hand it's nice to be proven right as long-time detractor of his, but on the other hand it's painful stuff to watch him play.

    If he's on the roster for a full season next year he could make -40. It'd go a long way to drafting high again at least.

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  102. Toronto about to win in regulation. 11 points. It's OVER.

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  103. Okay, fuck it. Deslauriers is garbage. He might develop into a servicable backup one day, but please let it be somewhere else.

    I take back anything that might have been construed as defense of the guy.

    (I know that was a decent shot that got through, but for crying out loud... be good at SOMETHING to do with goaltending, man)

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  104. Toronto about to win in regulation. 11 points. It's OVER.

    I've been saying it's over for a month. Nobody listens to me. :)

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  105. I've been saying it's over for a month. Nobody listens to me. :)

    That's what MacT said. And Pat Quinn. And whoever will be coaching next year. ;)

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  106. If you're going to build a case for Deslauriers, the best place to start is by finding a goalie from the past with:

    1. Similar numbers through junior and pro (ages 17-25)
    2. Emerged as an above average goalie after JDD's current age.

    And if you end up with a list that includes Tim Thomas and Dwayne Roloson then you know it is rare.

    He has a better chance of being Fred Brathwaite based on history.

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  107. I can save a lot of "words" for people.

    Deslaurier and Dubnyk are not that good and it's not a big deal losing them on waivers.

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  108. IC,

    All fair points and well put.

    Oh and I don't know if this has been said before but,

    "Marc Andre Chorneron"

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  109. If you're going to build a case for Deslauriers, the best place to start is by finding a goalie from the past...

    Don't be ridiculous - that takes attentiveness and research and makes me run the risk of having a defensible position. I'm all about rhetoric. You people and your "evidence". ;)

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  110. LT: I'm not saying JDD would go first or anything, but comparing SV% across teams doesn't present the whole picture. Ideally, you'd want the counterfactual "what would JDD's numbers look like if he played for Detroit?" or even an average team. I don't know if someone does analysis like that. But, looking at win percentage with and without each goalie for each team is more of a `within' team comparison, and I don't think JDD looks as bad in that light. At the same time, Rask and Howard look particularly good.

    - W L OTL Win %
    Record 47 14 9 0.67
    Neuvirth 9 4 0.69
    Without 38 10 9 0.67

    Record 21 41 7 0.3
    JDD 14 24 3 0.34
    Without 7 17 4 0.25


    Record 31 26 12 0.45
    Rask 15 9 4 0.54
    Without 16 17 8 0.39

    Record 34 23 12 0.49
    Howard 27 15 8 0.54
    Without 7 8 4 0.37

    Record 23 34 12 0.33
    Gustafsson 12 13 8 0.36
    Without 11 21 4 0.31

    Isn't Antti Niemi a rookie as well? At least, I thought he was.

    This probably isn't the best day to defend the guy...

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  111. Time Machine Hypothetical Alternate Reality:

    Khabi's back holds up, Hemsky stays healthy, Souray stays healthy.

    Oilers are battling to get into 8th (sure, maybe they were never good enough to battle for 8th, but this is my time travel fantasy). Will end up with a middling first round pick.

    or

    Oilers ravaged by injuries, last in league, will pick 1-2 overall. Beginning a thorough, long term rebuild.

    Which would you choose?

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  112. Nice work, R3dm3n8c3. Of course a number of Edmonton's "without" numbers are "with" Devan Dubnyk, so...

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  113. I hate to be premature here, but looks like the magic number is down to 7.

    At this rate we may be able to cheer for the Oilers to win again pretty darn soon.

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  114. JDD should get one of those Harding-style gloves that can actually catch a puck, instead of playing like he's got two blockers.

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  115. R3: The simple answer is Deslauriers wouldn't play for Detroit. They'd find a better mousetrap.

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  116. This probably isn't the best day to defend the guy...

    Agreed: it's a game day.

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  117. Hey I was a big DD supporter - but results cannot be overlooked forever - just like with JDD. If DD does not come through with a dynamite year in 10-11 - then it's very unlikely he ever develops into an impact goalie. JDD is already at that point and you just cut him loose without any real worry. You offer DD a two way deal this summer and send him down to the AHL. If he doesn't perform like a top 5 goalie in the AHL next year then he's done as well - last chance texaco as LT would say. But JDD has been given his shot and fell flat on his face - unsurprising to me - but you can't say he didn't get a chance.

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  118. Love the pic of JDD "in" the net from that blog about him.

    He might as well been standing in the corner.

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  119. //If you're going to build a case for Deslauriers, the best place to start is by finding a goalie from the past with://

    Craig Anderson?

    He was about 0.900 in save percentage in his first two stints as a backup on awful Blackhawk teams.

    The probabilities are definitelly not with JDD anymore.

    Note: My position is that the lack of a reliable 60-game starter makes it difficult to go with JDD as the backup next year. IF I had a 60-game starter, I think JDD has done enough to get another year, but the Oilers have Khabibuilin and that contract, and probably need an established backup.

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  120. http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3366#comment-273586

    Bruce: that harding glove line as just great.

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  121. Well it's very safe to start cheering for the boys every night. They will likely get killed every night in the next homestand given the competition - but let's hope they can muster a bit of effort and one of the young goalies can get lucky a night or two. There is essentially no chance they do not finish last - so a few moral victories to end the year does not hurt. Must piss the Flames off to not have a shot at us with the way they need wins.

    Here's a question - let's assume we win the lottery and a team offers us assets to move down to the 2nd slot while they pick first and take Seguin (we get Hall at #2). Do you take the deal?

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  122. Depends on the assets. If the Oilers feel strongly about Hall over Seguin (and I think they do) then make the pick and don't dilly dally.

    If they like Seguin and another team (BOS) holds #2 overall and wants to offer a strong option for 1st overall then you consider it.

    But I think Hall goes #1 and there's no reason to pass him up if he's your #1.

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  123. When you can pick up cheap UFA veteren goalies on the cheap there's no sense in even keeping JDD around. The guy is chaos just like most of the D.

    Next year DD and Roy / Pitton can run the farm. Pick up a cheap servicebale 1B on a 1 or 2 year contract. Heck, for extra Khabby insurance pick up 2 serviceable vets while you're at it ala NYI. A team can usually peddle one off for a pick or prospect once other teams have injuries.

    I know last year was a flooded market for these goalie types, but they're available every year.

    Bargain, vet, goalies outplaying their contracts (>.910%):

    Anderson - 1.8M - .924%
    Lebarbara - 1M - .927%
    Nittymaki - .6M - .914%
    Hedberg - 1.087M - .913%
    Conklin - 1.3M - .920%
    Raycroft - .500M - .910%
    Dannis - .500M - .920%
    Budaj - 1.25M - .920%

    Without checking I believe most of these guys were UFA last year.

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  124. We're now 11 points out of 29th, so we'll obviously be last, and my thoughts turned to historical perspective. The worst season suffered since the lockout has been the 06-07 Flyers, with 56 points. Oilers have 49 with 12 games remaining. What do people think of the Oil's chances of staying below 56? I find myself, oddly, rooting for them to outsuck that horrible Flyers team, just to feel like my sensation of horror regarding the Oilers' squad isn't overdramatic.

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  125. In 1995, I'm betting both Washington and Boston thought they'd solved their goaltender concerns long term with the way Blaine Lacher and Jim Carey played. Within five years, I don't think either was even playing pro hockey let alone in the NHL. Deslauriers numbers don't look good compared to Valarmov, Howard, Rask but the reality is rookie numbers don't really mean much in and of themselves.

    Is Deslauriers the next Tim Thomas? God, I hope not. Thomas was an Oiler property when he was 25 - and spent the next seven years bouncing around between Europe and the minors. I'm not willing to wait that long for him.

    But, I think Craig Anderson is a reasonable comp. Their junior numbers are similar - both had two average junior seasons and excellent final years. Anderson had a more typical development curve and better AHL numbers at the start, but you look at his season as a 25 year old and I'm betting not many thought he'd ever amount to much either. (29 games for a bad Black Hawks team with six wins and an .888 sv%) . Went back to the minors the next season, had an excellent year, and then emerged as a solid backup and starter.

    JDD never had enough opportunity to learn the game in the minors - he only had one true season as a number one (compare that with how the Red Wings developed Jimmy Howard - they let him stay, one assumes risking waivers, until he was ready for the NHL). The Oilers would've been better off risking waivers and keeping him in the AHL another season rather than stunting his development (yet again) by having him play the role of junior partner behind Garon and Roloson.

    I haven't given up on JDD yet - although he's certainly making it easy to do so.

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  126. Watching the sledge hockey game at the Paralympics on TSN right now. Some dude names Billy Bridges just scored off a slap shot that hit the crossbar and went in. The guy has a better shot than just about anybody on the Oilers. We should sign him for next year. Might be one of our biggest forwards too.

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  127. If you're going to build a case for Deslauriers, the best place to start is by finding a goalie from the past with:

    1. Similar numbers through junior and pro (ages 17-25)
    2. Emerged as an above average goalie after JDD's current age.


    League GP Sv% | Age| League GP Sv%
    ----------------------------------
    QMJHL 31 N/A. | 17 | QMJHL 51 .900
    QMJHL 43 .887 | 18 | QMJHL 49 .888
    QMJHL 51 N/A. | 19 | QMJHL 50 .916
    IHL+... 47 .905 | 20 | AHL+... 33 .911
    IHL+... 52 .901 | 21 | AHL+... 19 .898
    IHL.... 48 .904 | 22 | AHL.... 40 .908
    IHL+... 57 .917 | 23 | AHL.... 57 .912
    IHL+... 51 .916 | 24 | NHL+... 15 .902
    NHL.... 24 .920 | 25 | NHL.... 41 .900
    NHL.... 42 .920 | 26 |
    NHL.... 44 .892 | 27 |
    NHL.... 35 .924 | 28 |
    NHL.... 37 .915 | 29 |
    SEL.... 19 .895 | 30 |
    NHL.... 58 .919 | 31 |
    NHL.... 44 .911 | 32 |
    NHL..... 4 .832 | 33 |
    NHL.... 28 .910 | 34 |


    JDD is on the right. The guy on the left is Manny Fernandez.

    In their 17-25 y.o. seasons, Fernandez played 125 games in the Q, JDD 150. Fernandez played 246 games in the minors, JDD 154. Fernandez played 33 NHL games, JDD 51 and counting. So much more minor league seasoning for Manny, largely due to the Oilers scuttling their farm team for 2 years. But otherwise JDD holds his own.

    As for Sv%, only one junior season is available for Fernandez, which happens to pretty much line up with JDD's worst year. At the minor league level, Fernandez had a .910 rating, JDD .909. Only at the NHL level do we see a difference, with Fernandez at .914, JDD at .901. Of course at 25 Fernandez was being brought along slowly as a second goalie in Dallas, a Stanley Cup contender, while JDD was thrown to the wolves in Edmonton, a 30th overall team. So that might explain some of the disparity.

    This is just one comp that occurred to me, not the result of an exhaustive search. But I daresay there's a few more guys out there that were still finding their way at 25.

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  128. Bruce: So, just so we're clear. You're saying the Oilers should hang in there with JDD in the hopes he turns into Manny Fernandez?

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  129. Manny got the "Minny bump," too. Throws off the numbers, no?

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  130. LT: I am saying no such thing. I simply am responding to your challenge "if you're going to build a case for Deslauriers ..." So there's Exhibit A. I'm not prepared to draw conclusions from it, and don't have time right now to find Exhibits B-X. Just thought I'd throw that one out there.

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  131. Kris: So does the Edmonton bump affect the numbers, in a depressing sort of way. If, however, you're saying that Manny didn't emerge as an above-average goalie after age 25, you and I will have to disagree on that point.

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  132. If we are simply looking for goaltenders who become "above average" starters after age 25, then take a look at the current top ten goalies (by sv%). I count seven - Miller, Nabokov, Vokoun, Howard, Anderson, Kiprusoff, and Bryzgalov - who didn't truly emerge as above average starters until after they were 25. Most had a fairly similar trajectory as well - at least a couple of seasons as a starter in the AHL followed by back-up duty. JDD has been rushed this year due to injury.

    Quite frankly, I'm not confident JDD ever emerges as an above average starter - a career like Garon is more likely - but there are certainly comparables out there (Anderson and, yes, Fernandez) to suggest that giving him another year as back-up wouldn't necessarily be a disaster.

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  133. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  134. Bruce,

    I suppose that would be the "Edmonton Dip."

    I thought someone had shown pretty conclusively that shot quality didn't effect ES SV% in any measurable way, but that the Minny trap teams had some unreasonable save percentages showing that style of play could effect SV %. So most teams have no effect on SV%, but Minny did. I might be off.

    I'd say he emerged as average -given the Minny bump- but that's an uneducated, first opinion.

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  135. BlackAdder,

    I think the idea is that most of those guys had shown something promising before 25, i.e. at least one great season in the AHL, before they broke out in the NHL.

    So, there was some evidence that they would break out. It wasn't like they were Pitton and then they're playing awesome in the NHL.

    What in JDD's past makes it reasonable to believe it's at all probable that he'll become an above average backup goalie? Or a starter? Subjective stuff like he's a hard worker won't cut it.

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  136. I don't want to leave the wrong impression. I'm not saying he's the next Ryan Miller. I was simply pointing out that many, if not most, NHL starters don't really emerge until after age 25 and that perhaps JDD still has, in the right environment, the chance to improve. As I said, if the stars align and things fall into place for JDD, he might have a career similar to Garon (inconsistent starter, decent backup).

    Although I do think Anderson and JDD compare reasonably well - and if he follows that script (which, admittedly, is a bit of a stretch) that means in two years we might see JDD become a decent backup and in four a starter.

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  137. From what I've seen, here's the best comp for both Deslauriers and Dubnyk.

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  138. Anderson's stats in the A show a guy who dominated at the minor league level. Deslauriers has proven only to be a middling AHL goalie.
    Anderson put up superior save percentage numbers the last two seasons as a backup and then backed them up this year with a strong season.
    Anyone think Deslauriers can hit the .920 mark as an NHL goalie... I hear only crickets...

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  139. The whole thing with JDD is does it really matter if he develops into anything?

    I think it's safe to say he's not going to be the next Marty Brodeur/Roberto Luongo/Marc-Andre Fleury....

    With that being said there are some similarities between JDD and MAF's early seasons.

    Both tended to over-commit to the puck. Both are extremely agile and flexible. Both played on crappy clubs.

    That's where the similarities end. Some of the differences are huge. MAF has always been an aggressive goalie. He challenges shooters unlike JDD who tends to sit back in his net. MAF plays with confidence while JDD tends to play scared more often than not.

    That to me the mental part of the game is the issue with JDD. As linneas(sp?) has said goaltenders develop on a different curve. I'm not sure if the mental part of the game can be learned. It's something I struggled with as a goalie. Nerves, anxiety etc...

    I can say that those things don't affect me as much as they used to. However, being 34 years old I don't play too many games that matter.

    I can say that at the age of 25 I was a much better goalie than at 18 or 22 years old. My play has declined a little over the last few years but not noticeably. My best years were probably between the ages of 27 - 33 years of age.

    I think it's unrealistic to think the Oilers will continue to develop JDD for the next 3,4 or 5 years. They may re-sign him as a backup for next year and see if he improves some more. If he shows improvement maybe they hang onto him a little longer.

    So what to do with him? Does it matter? If I'm not mistaken there are waiver issues with JDD and DD next year. So if both are re-signed you risk losing one on waivers. That's only a risk if you don't have anyone to play in OKC next year. But if Roy is the guy the organization is pining their hopes on let him play next year.

    I guess it depends on what the plan is moving forward. Do they want to be competitive next year? Is that even possible? There is a glut of UFA goalies who can be had for cheap and have experience and would be more consistent.

    It really doesn't matter what the Oilers do. Keep Dubnyk...meh. Keep JDD...meh. I would rather they sign a Nittymaki/Ellis/Biron. The only real upside to keeping JDD over any of those options is you probably save $500,00 to $1 million in cap space if that's a concern.

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  140. Boy do I have a tough time keeping it short.

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  141. It took Anderson 3 years in the NHL to reach 50 games played. Over that time, he posted a save percentage of 0.892. I doubt many people would have predicted he would roll out the next 100 games with a save percentage > 0.92 after his first 50.

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  142. Anderson's Junior #'s compare very well with JDD. His sv% is higher in the AHL, but was not always the best on his team (Leighton had a .924 the year Anderson was at .914). And Anderson's first two seasons in the NHL (sv% of .905 in 2004 and .886 in 2006) likely would've had a lot of people suggesting he would never amount to anything in the same way similar comments are being made about JDD today.

    Again, don't misunderstand me. In coming to JDD's defence, I'm not trying to suggest he's got the makings of an NHL starter. I'm just saying that the inconsistency he's shown this year doesn't necessarily mean we need to give up on the guy totally.

    JDD wasn't ready to be a back-up last year, and he sure isn't ready to be a starter now. As I've tried to point out, there's still the possibility (in the right environment, meaning somewhere other than Edmonton) for him to get better and I'm not ready to totally give up on the guy. The Oilers have done everything possible to ruin this kid's development - from his "wilderness years" when they chose not to have a farm team to rushing him into the NHL.

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  143. It's probably been said somewhere in this thread already and I'm too lazy to go looking, but JDD's biggest problem with this organization is who the #1 goalie is. I think with a solid #1 who will play 65-70 games, JDD can be relatively successful as a backup. I think we'd all agree however, that there's no way in the world that Khabibulin gives us 65 games a year for the last 3 years of his contract. If I was a betting man, I'd say the over / under is about 45-50 games per year, so we're going to need a back up who can come in and play 35 games a year and this year I'm afraid he's proven he can't play that much and perform at a level to at least allow the team to make the playoffs.

    Maybe it's giving the "braintrust" too much credit, but I think we'll be able to see exactly what they expect for the next couple of years by how they approach the goaltending situation this summer. If they go out and sign someone to be a 1B with Khabibulin, then they believe they have a chance to at least be moderately successful next year (whatever that means). If however, they choose to roll into camp with JDD and Dubnyk competing for the #2 spot, they are asking for a repeat of this year, because there is no way that any rational person would expect Khabibulin to play enough next year to limit the backups # of games to the point where the team can challenge for a playoff spot.

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  144. In coming to JDD's defence, I'm not trying to suggest he's got the makings of an NHL starter. I'm just saying that the inconsistency he's shown this year doesn't necessarily mean we need to give up on the guy totally.

    My point exactly. It seems the disconnect between his detractors and his defenders is not whether he will become a good or great goalie. It's that his detractors are saying we have seen enough to make a decision (and that decision is that he's not going to cut it), whereas his defenders say it's too soon to tell, and that there's precedent to back that up. I don't think anyone is saying he will be a superstar - I agree that while it's not impossible, it seems extremely unlikely. But looking at other goalies in the league, it seems crazy to declare that we can close the book on this guy.

    The examples people have put up here tonight show that in goaltending, past performance is not always a clear predictor of future performance... and I can't think of many goalies who have had their development more poorly handled than JDD.

    Of course those squandered development years may prove to be an insurmountable obstacle, but I maintain that we just don't know that yet. The Oilers have made a habit in recent years of getting impatient with players and ditching them at the wrong time.

    Having a cheap backup around for a while longer isn't an entirely bad thing, especially if his NHL learning curve coincides with a rebuild phase in which we are looking to score another high pick next year.

    If the Oilers were looking to be a contender next year, I'd agree that this team can't wait around to see what JDD becomes. But given the likely path of the next two or three years, I don't see why we would ditch him while he is still a bit of a question mark and a replacement would likely be more expensive.

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  145. wolfie,

    A big part of goaltending is mental. As goaltenders we both know that. The question is does JDD have particular difficulties?

    I think he does, which is why I'm so certain he can be a first class goaltender. Like Vokoun and Roloson, it is apparent on the ice that JDD struggles with the game inside his head. I'm sure the lousy development curve didn't and doesn't help. I hope and even expect he will get his demons under control over time.

    Most of his mechanical problems will disappear when he gets it together mentally. They stem mainly from him losing confidence and playing too far back into his net. I don't know what triggers that loss of confidence but hopefully the Oilers will spend some money to figure it out.

    He might well do a Vokoun, he has much of the same skill set and many of the same on ice problems, bad goals at the wrong time.

    I'm virtually certain he won't be an Oiler when the penny drops but there is certainly a good chance it will drop.

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  146. Weal's numbers are certainly promising as a 17 yr old, but before reading too much into his numbers being superior to Eberle's at the same age, let's try to keep in mind that a 17 yr old Eberle had no 19 yr old Eberle to help pump up his stats, unlike Weal. From what I've seen, Weal doesn't look nearly as enticing when he didn't have Eberle around to carry the load.

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  147. Bottom line is that you can find a comp for damn near any crazy thing if you want to try hard enough - hell if JDD still sucks in 10 years time then break out the late blooming Johnny Bower comparisons - but it's still not going to change the odds of him becoming a decent starter. It is remotely and highly unlikely that he's anything more than an average backup - and you can get a better example of that for the same money any time during the off-season UFA market.

    The real point is that this team is spending precious development time and energy on an asset that you can buy for nothing more than a small amount of cap space. It's a waste - spending dollars to potentially earn pennies - but when did this mgmt team ever do anything sensible with goalies.

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  148. //Anderson's stats in the A show a guy who dominated at the minor league level. Deslauriers has proven only to be a middling AHL goalie.//

    No. Anderson was roughly as mediocre at the AHL level as Deslauriers at comparable ages.

    Only at about 25 or 26 did Anderson begin to show improvement.

    Like Deslauriers, in Chicago's system, with two full stints as an NHL backup, Anderson looked like a lousy backup at best.

    Anderson go the opportunity to perservere in another organization and stuck with it.

    The probabilities are against Deslauriers being anything, and the Oilers situation going forward is probably not a good match for giving him one more year, but I can see a team with a Luongo or Brodeur or Kiprusoff as a starter signing him to be the backup.

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  149. No. Anderson was roughly as mediocre at the AHL level as Deslauriers at comparable ages.

    Do you guys check this stuff before you write it?

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  150. No. Anderson was roughly as mediocre at the AHL level as Deslauriers at comparable ages.

    //Do you guys check this stuff before you write it?//

    From hockeydb:

    Craig Anderson
    20: AHL .886
    21: AHL .923 NHL: .856
    22: AHL 914 NHL: .905
    23: AHL:.929 (really small sample size)
    24: NHL .866
    25: AHL .919

    JDD
    20: AHL .888
    21: AHL .897
    22: AHL .909
    23: AHL .912
    24: NHL .901
    25: NHL .900

    There is nothing in Craig Anderson's statistical history up to age 25 that indicates he would be much of anything.

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  151. No. Anderson was roughly as mediocre at the AHL level as Deslauriers at comparable ages.

    Well, reasonable people can differ on what "roughly as mediocre" means. Anderson's AHL numbers in that time period produce a .911, JDD's a .906. If you throw out their rookie seasons, you get a .920 and a .909.

    Anderson's numbers are better and he started trending the right way before he was JDD's age.

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  152. Somebody like Florida did in 1986 who needs a cheap backup goaltender to play behind a 60-game starter might be williing to try JDD as a backup on a one-year contract.

    I agree that it is risky for the OIlers to do so since their backup next year might have to be the starter for the majority of games, just like this year.

    I agree that JDD will probably amount to nothing.

    But usually somebody else takes a look.

    IF the Oilers had a 60-game starter, I'd give him one more year.

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  153. Hi, Bruce.

    I wish I could stop by more often.
    Ah well... this too shall pass.
    :-)

    Someday I hope to catch up around the Oilogosphere, but then, I also hope the Oilers' craving for Great White Whale is sated by the #1/#2 in June, and that they then build a balanced team with good(value) veteran support. That's a whole lotta hopin' goin' on right there.
    ;-D

    "Calm feet" applies to all positions and shows me a "prepared focus". Players who don't panic when the pressure is on; but instead, recall similar experiences and trust their focus to quickly execute the plays (responsibilities/opportunities) presented them; tend to be positive difference makers. Players who scramble, are continually out of position, and overplay situations... not so much.

    Obviously, young players have less experience to draw on to be consistent. As long as they're showing improvement, time and patience are a good investment, imho.

    L8r
    Louise

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