I posted this late a couple of nights ago and then the GDT went up about 10 hours later, so wanted to post it again just in case you missed it. The European Desjardins numbers will be posted tonight, some real surprises there.
Oilers sent Jordan Eberle to Springfield and have implied he's unlikely to be recalled. As you read over this post and find out the reasonable expectations for Eberle in 10-11 as an Oiler, an interesting question to ponder is "aside from Hemsky, who will be clearly better on RW next season Jordan Eberle?"
I've been tracking the numbers for a few seasons now so we have a number of stats-lines to compare. For those who don't know how the equivalency works, it grabs the junior stats--lets the air out of the tires based on previous junior players and their stats in a CHL-to-NHL jump--and then puts them in 82gp form.
The junior-to-NHL projections are most accurate for 17-year old juniors but it is an extremely valuable "line in the sand" for all teenagers (age in brackets).
- Sam Gagner 16-39-55 (17)
- Slava Trukhno 10-29-39 (19)
- Ryan O'Marra 14-13-27 (19)
- Fredrik Pettersson 10-14-24 (19)
- Sebastien Bisaillon 4-14-18 (19)
- Theo Peckham 5-11-16 (18)
- Alex Plante 3-13-16 (17)
Gagner would come directly to the majors and post 79gp, 13-36-49 which is an excellent comp for the predicted Desjardins. Those two seasons could certainly have come from the same player. None of the other kids from the CHL 06-07 season have given us an entire season to compare to this point.
2007-08
- Jordan Eberle 15-11-26 (17)
- Philippe Cornet 9-9-18 (17)
- Milan Kytnar 3-5-8 (18)
- Jordan Bendfeld 2-7-9 (19)
- Alex Plante 1-1-2 (18)
This season shows Gagner was in fact something else in junior. Eberle had a solid year but was miles from Gagner as a 17-year old. Cornet's number comes from the Q, the one junior league that Gabriel penalizes more than the other two. I think he might want to have another look based on the most recent seasons.
2008-09
- Jordan Eberle 14-16-30 (18)
- Philippe Cornet 11-17-28 (18)
- Milan Kytnar 10-14-24 (19)
- Alex Plante 3-13-16 (19)
- Cameron Abney 2-2-4 (17)
Eberle ran in place despite the WJC fame. The Pats were a poor club and we can factor it in but this was not a dominant season. Cornet on the other hand improved a lot and Plante was healthy again.
2009-10
- Jordan Eberle 22-24-46 (19)
- Philippe Cornet 10-17-27 (19)
- Toni Rajala 11-15-26 (18)
- Milan Kytnar 8-14-22 (20)
- Cameron Abney 2-3-5 (18)
The two most impressive CHL drafts of this decade for the Oilers (Gagner & Hemsky) were already in the NHL by age 19. Let's compare Eberle's season to other 19-year old kids from the Oilers draft past, with the understanding that comparing across seasons and leagues is a "just for fun" exercise.
- Rob Schremp 25-38-63
- Jordan Eberle 22-24-46
- Matt Lombardi 20-25-45
- Slava Trukhno 10-29-39
- Marc Pouliot 15-22-37
- Jarret Stoll 17-18-35
Finally, Desjardins has his say with regard to the #1 pick this summer.
- Taylor Hall 17-29-46
- Tyler Seguin 19-22-41
And in case you don't think this puppy works, here's what the NHLE predicted for the kids who jumped to the show over the last few seasons.
- Patrick Kane: 26-36-62 (ACTUAL: 82gp, 21-51-72)
- Sam Gagner: 16-39-55 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 13-36-49)
- David Perron 13-14-27 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 13-14-27)
- Steven Stamkos 23-19-42 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 23-23-46)
- Drew Doughty 6-23-29 (ACTUAL: 81gp, 6-21-27)
- Mikael Boedker 12-17-29 (ACTUAL: 78gp, 11-17-28)
- Josh Bailey 11-24-35 (ACTUAL: 68gp, 7-18-25)*
- John Tavares 25-21-46 (ACTUAL: 69gp, 18-18-36)
- Matt Duchene 13-21-34 (ACTUAL: 68gp, 23-24-47)*
- Evander Kane 19-20-39 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 14-11-25)*
- Ryan O'Reilly 6-18-24 (ACTUAL: 67gp, 7-15-22)
I've placed an asterisk against the comps that are well off, although it is reasonable that those seasons could have come from the same player. Still 8 of the 11 predictions above are solid, giving us some degree of confidence with regard to Hall and Seguin's numbers. I don't think the Oilers can go wrong with either player.
I know that I don't comment here near enough to bring this sort of issue out but I assure you (Lowetide) that I continue to enjoy your writing immensely despite the lack of regular commentary. Nonetheless:
ReplyDeleteFor those who don't know how the equivalency works, it grabs the junior stats--lets the air out of the tires based on previous junior players and their stats in a CHL-to-NHL jump--and then puts them in 82gp form. Same TOI, same situations.
I think that it's important to note that Gabe's methodology does not account for the young player's TOI or game situations being the same in the NHL as they were in the CHL. Gabe made his calculations based on observed performance and thus the TOI and situational usage is probably substantially different in the NHL and the CHL. The "equivalency" is thus the "average" usage a player receives when he first breaks in to the NHL from the CHL.
If I've made a mistake with this, please let me know, though I'm pretty sure Gabe clarified it with this interpretation last season. I bring it up only because I think understanding the methodology is essential for the discussion. I hope that this serves to move the conversation forward.
Thanks again to Lowetide for writing.
Put this one in your pipe and smoke it.
ReplyDeleteThat's actually one of the best stories I've read in a long time, Andy.
ReplyDeleteSo... trading Gagner to make room for Eberle would be bad?
ReplyDeleteWillis and Tambellini are the same person - who knew????
ReplyDeleteScott: Thanks for the info, I didn't know that. I'll change the original post.
ReplyDeleteAndy: Thanks for the link. Years ago I took my wife to a Saints game (lucky girl) and saw Lundmark and Comrie. Told her Lundmark would be a star despite Comrie running circles around everyone that night.
Saw him good. :-)
Jonathan: Trading Gagner would be a bad idea full stop.
Does the Desjardins equivalency change year to year to reflect what the new kids are doing when they make the jump to major league pitching, or is a flat tax comparison that never changes?
ReplyDeleteIs it weird that I'd be happy if they drafted Seguin so I didn't have to cheer for someone (Hall) that looks so goofy all the time?
ReplyDeleteLT - So you're telling me you noticed that Comrie was running around everyone and putting on a show...yet somehow saw Lundmark better...ummm....huh?
So did everybody skip over this part?
ReplyDelete4. Question for Oilers fans: How would you feel if Edmonton ended up with Cam Fowler instead of either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin? I'm not saying it will happen (probably depends on where they end up in the lottery), but they are watching him very closely. Oilers might need more help on the blue-line than up front. The Leafs felt they were easy to get behind, and they can't be the only team feeling that way.
I can't see it - staff is likely just doing due diligence with nothing else to do this season. Fowler might end up being just as good a draft pick as the other two, but I think the peasants would revolt if the brain trust doesn't draft Hall. That said, the brain trust will probably trade down to get two first rounders, draft Pouliot's brother and Bonsignore's cousin, and then fly down to San Jose to see if Heatley really, REALLY wasn't still interested...
ReplyDeleteThey could possibly still end up in the #3 spot if they tear off some wins and Toronto chokes. They'd be crazy not to cover their bases and follow all the top handful of guys. That said, losing the lottery and taking Fowler at #2 over Seguin is an absolute nightmare scenario.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone else come away from the WJC's not exactly blown away by Mr. Fowler?
ReplyDeleteThere might be 5 forwards ahead of him as far as the numbers and the "saw him" types think.
Does the Desjardins equivalency change year to year to reflect what the new kids are doing when they make the jump to major league pitching, or is a flat tax comparison that never changes?
ReplyDeleteIt should change over time as more and more players move from the CHL (and other leagues) to the NHL. We may even be able to suss out age categories (i.e. 18 y/o NHLE v. 17 y/o NHLE) but to my knowledge the equivalency numbers haven't been updated for a few years.
Friedemann mentions that a scout compared Cam Fowler to Drew Doughty... REALLY? Is Fowler anywhere in the same class as Drew Doughty?
ReplyDeleteI can't see it, if he was, wouldn't he be ranked higher than Hall?
So with Seguin now at the top of RSS rankings, does that change the Oiler option or do they just go with their guy the whole way? And if we do get the 1st overall, would anyone be willing to move to 2 if Boston gave us something else?
ReplyDeleteDBO, I'd be willing to go to 2 if Boston offered up any sort of good pick or even a roster player.
ReplyDeleteI don't think there's going to be much seperating between Hall and Seguin and if it happens down the road it's too hard to tell here.
That being said, Picking #1 is also a pride thing and too suck this bad and not pick first may seem like a kick in the nuts to some. Still, I'd make the swap down to 2 if Boston was offering up something nice.
With dawgbone on that one. Trade down to the 2nd if a decent deal is there.
ReplyDeleteLT: Do you remember if David Hukalo was playing for the Saints that season? They had some other future pros around that time if I remember correctly.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=42574
Hukalo still plays in the IHL:
http://www.komets.com/players.aspx
If we finish in last place, we're assured of the 31st overall pick, right?
ReplyDeleteIf we finish in last place, we're assured of the 31st overall pick, right?
ReplyDeleteGood question dg. It might be good if someone who understands specifically the rules of the draft could suss them out for us here. Mainly on how it affects the 'top' picking teams in the first and second rounds. Something for us to ponder in the intervening 3 months.
Bar Qu, the Oilers pick in this draft is the first of every round (who owns them is another question).
ReplyDelete"aside from Hemsky, who will be clearly better on RW next season (than) Jordan Eberle?"
ReplyDeleteJagr!
Thanks for bumping the thread LT. This is the type of stuff that people really need to check out on your site. It still amazes me how well these equivalencies work.
If anyone is confused as to where these numbers come from, check out the translation chart from Behind the Net.
I don't think the Oilers have ever taken a defenseman with their first 1st round pick since Paul f'n Coffey (correct me if I'm wrong on this).
ReplyDeleteThis millenium, it's been Dubnyk and a bunch of forwards on their first trip to the podium.
It would be high stupidity if they had the 2nd overall pick this year and chose to break that trend by taking Fowler over Hall or Seguin. Enough to make me a full time Chicago Blackhawks fan probably....
Googled...
ReplyDeleteSelmar Odelein - 21st Overall
François Leroux - 19th Overall
Jason Soules - 15th Overall
They were all pretty much awesome.
Oops, missed Jeff Beukeboom. 19th Overall.
ReplyDelete...Who actually was good.
ReplyDeleteI found this part of the article interesting given some of his previous comments:
ReplyDeleteHad a good, long chat with Andrew Cogliano before that game. He admitted he lost his confidence early in the season, "and it's hard to get it back in this league. No easy nights." Cogliano also said he realized he wasn't good enough defensively or consistent overall.
I don't think the Oilers have ever taken a defenseman with their first 1st round pick since Paul f'n Coffey (correct me if I'm wrong on this).
ReplyDeleteAlex Plante? Sure he was techincally a pick we took from the Islanders, but it's still a first round pick for the Oilers.
The Leafs felt they were easy to get behind, and they can't be the only team feeling that way.
ReplyDeleteNo phukkin kidding.
But, replace Strudwick, Chorney & Peckham with
Souray, Smid and another NHLer
and play the Leaves again.
Harder to get behind, I bet.
on the pick thing. If we are last we are assured of the 1st or 2nd pick (you can't move down more then 1 spot).
ReplyDeletei wonder if they would make a move for the 4th or 5th pick. There is another dman in the top 5, Brandon Gormley. He's 6'2 and 180 lbs right now and projects to be a solid two way dman. Would our 2nd rd pick plus a Cogliano be enough to entice the Isles or Hurricanes or Panthers to move their pick? Or our 1st next year plus Cogs or someone else?
DBO,
ReplyDeleteSay no to next years 1st round pick and Cogs. We really don't want to LoBurke this up again.
Or our 1st next year plus Cogs or someone else?
ReplyDeleteIf I'm the Canes (or whomever) I take that deal in a cocaine heartbeat. I could see a future where this team is banging for a playoff spot in March, but I can see multiple futures where this team is praying for a 20 game run of OT luck to avoid giving the first overall to another team.
I think our rule needs to be don't move first rounders until your low end of possibilities is 'just outside the playoff bubble.' Especially if you're not getting an established NHL player back.
i wonder if they would make a move for the 4th or 5th pick.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe the management is willing to all of a sudden get creative in its approach to managing their team. I suspect they rightly feel the fan base would gather pitchforks and torches to march on their castle if they did something like that.
OTOH, where should I bring my pitchfork and torch on the 26th of June? I assume there will be a central gathering place?
DBO: I think it would be stupid to trade the 2011 #1 pick. The Oilers may even end up in 30th next year. A lot of people are touting Adam Larsson as the next stud defenseman. The possibility of another bottom 5 finish will give some meaning to next season.
ReplyDeleteToronto pundits are seeing the trade for Kessel as a disaster. I hope that Katz is keeping a short leash on Lowe and Tambo and would veto any trade of Oiler's high picks.
Think anyone's stupid to give us their 2010 first round pick, within say the top-7, for our first rounder in either 2011 or 2012? Our choice which pick they get.
ReplyDeleteWould this even be feasible?
If TBay wanted to give us Mr. Stamkos (watch the guy's goals, seriously it's the same play every time but it works like a hot damn) and their first I'd do it.
ReplyDeleteThey won't, so I'm picking. I don't see the value to Boston in moving 1 spot to get Hall...does anyone else?
I also feel robbed that the man in the pic from this post won't be providing me with some entertainment for my season ticket dollar at the end of this year. Would've made games much more interesting.
Google maps suggests the following location:
ReplyDeleteEdmonton Oilers Hockey
11230 110 Street Northwest, Edmonton, AB T5G 3H7 -
(780) 414-4625
Maybe someone can make it an event of Facebook?
If we finish in last place, we're assured of the 31st overall pick, right?
ReplyDeleteWe're assured 31st overall as only the first rounder is flipped.
However, there are also compensatory picks handed out in the second round for teams who have not signed prior year's first rounders. So there may actually be 31 or 32 selections in the second round, meaning that our 3rd round pick is not guaranteed to be 61st, it may be more like 63rd. Every pick afterwards would follow in the same way.
For a truly ridiculous example, in the 2003 draft JFJ was drafted 68th overall, in the second round. The very first pick in the third round was 69th overall.
Excellent Jordan; maybe H-Bomb has a drink appropriate for storming the rink?
ReplyDeleteAnd I was worried there would be nothing to do after I finished report cards :-)
It would be high stupidity if they had the 2nd overall pick this year and chose to break that trend by taking Fowler over Hall or Seguin. Enough to make me a full time Chicago Blackhawks fan probably....
ReplyDeleteI don't really see the point in getting worked up about things like this. I know we make fun of these management guys like they're bumbling idiots but it's going to be Hall or Seguin boys and girls.
While we are on this prospects thread, there was this great post over at copper and blue the other day about Anton Lander. Very good work over there - I'm really impressed with the efforts they are going to to connect with local bloggers in Sweden.
ReplyDeleteA day or two ago I commented that there were a lot of big boys in the ISS top 30 NA skaters, and later suggested that the Oilers might consider Jordan Weal with the 31st pick so they could have another "matched pair" (meaning him and Eberle).
ReplyDeleteSome took this seriously and obviously I was too obtuse. The Oilers absolutely do not need another small skilled forward at this time. The Brain Trust has to build a balanced team. I'm sick and tired of watching Nilsson, Cogliano, O'Sullivan and Gagner being pushed around, stripped of the puck and laying on the ice. This is not a good mix. I've seen these guys in a group at a restaurant (as opposed to on the ice with full equipment) and they are small.
From Guy Flaming at 'Coming Down the Pipe':
ReplyDelete"Jordan Weal ended the year with 102 points, he's the first 17-year-old to do that in the WHL since Pavel Brendl did it with the Calgary Hitmen back in 1998-99. The Russian went 4th overall in the NHL draft but only appeared in 78 NHL games; he's currently playing in the KHL. I haven't found a scout yet who has told me that he sees Weal going in the 1st round."
As I mentioned yesterday I really don't need to see this young man in an Oilers jersey in the early rounds of a draft.
Lebowski:
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm still here to call you on it.
You may not like him, and I'm fine with that. But with the kind of logic you just presented, again, you're going to pick Parise over Pouliot and Jacques, again.
There is no telling what the roster is going to look like 3 years from now when our 2010 second rounder should be making the NHL. There may be room for a small forward who scores in bunches.
Talent should trump all when it comes to the draft. Unfortunately it doesn't, and I'm going to be left to wonder if our 31st overall is going to be Cameron Abney V2.0 becuase the idiots upstairs want more size on today's roster.
Does anyone know if that Cogs for Mueller rumour was actually legit?
ReplyDeleteIf there was something to it and Tambo just couldn't get it done or wouldn't pull the trigger, that really hurts.
The guy has been absolutely on fire in Colorado.
And I'd still trade Penner and our 2011 first to Boston for the Leafs pick if it lands in the top-2.
ReplyDeleteTambo could make Hall and Seguin play a game of ping pong to see who gets to be the #1 pick.
ReplyDeleteWith Savard and Bergeron down the middle and the team choking for goals I'd be surprised if Bos wouldn't offer something in order to jump and get a chance at Hall.
ReplyDeletedoritogrande:
ReplyDelete1.Weal is not in the ISS top 30 NA Skaters.
2.I disagree that "talent" should be the governing factor. I think it should be who will be the best NHL player. A player who does well in junior hockey does not necessarily do well in the NHL. See Daigle, Schremp, Steve Kelly, Pouliot, and Tyler Wright to name a few. Most famous example is Fran Huck. With the Regina Pats in 1964-153 pts. and 1965-138 pts. But he was 5'7"- 165lbs. Did not do very well in the NHL because he was tiny.
Weal is 5'8"-158lbs.
3. Weal may have loads of talent and character but he will not be able to compete -too small. And he will be more susceptible to injury.
4. Draft for talent and skill, but size is big factor too. So why take the chance? No. 31 is too high a pick to risk.
5.The 2003 rankings had Getzlaf at 5 and Parise around 9. Oilers should have followed the damn rankings.
You don't trade your 1st round draft pick if there is a chance that you will be a lottery team.
ReplyDeleteThe only exception would be if somebody offered you Doughty or Stamkos.
You wouldn't do it for Eric Staal, because Staal is already too old to build around in an era of early free agency. He would never stay past his next contract.
As a general rule (apart from moving up or down a few spots), first round picks should only be traded if one is a Stanley Cup contender,
If the Oilers were to get a second high pick in the top fivesay for Cogliano and a 2nd or two, or for Hemsky, or for Penner, go for the Swiss power forward in Portland, not a defenseman.
Dennis: Good point re Boston and Hall. So you hope the Oilers pick No. 2 and do a trade with Boston, right?
ReplyDeleteRight know I'm paying heed to what a lot of "experts" are saying, namely that Seguin will be the better player at age 25 on. And the Oilers need a center, more than a winger.
The draft will be very interesting.
The possibility of another bottom 5 finish will give some meaning to next season.
ReplyDeleteI'll say. I remember the terror of 2007 all too well, when it looked like Burkie might walk away with the ace. (How times have changed!)
Still and all, at least we were all on the same page cheering for the Oilers to win games that spring. If next year's meaningful games are anything like this year's, I'll set the Before/After on PJ Oil or MC79 saying "Go Flames! Go Canucks! Go Leafs!" at Groundhog Day, and bet heavily on the "Before". :)
Oops, the terror of 2008. 2007 was more catastrophic than terrifying.
ReplyDeleteDorito,
ReplyDeleteWeal is currently ranked 45th for North American skaters by Central Scounting. Of course Europeans and Goalies have to be factored into the overall rankings.
It looks to me that Weal could go late second round at the earliest based on what the scouts say. When you factor in that he is a 5'9" 160 lb centre, (there are what maybe 5 guys smaller in the NHL?) and likely is going to have to play top 6, taking him at 31st would be a big overdraft and a big mistake.
Maybe at 61 you take him if he is still around but I won't be surprised if he falls into the 4th round.
I think taking Weal early at 31 would make the Oilers guilty of once again thinking they know better than everyone else. How has that worked out for them?
Boston also has Krejci.
ReplyDeleteIf we take Hall, I think they just might move the pick. That being said, I'm still not sure who is better (Hall or Seguin).
Lebowski: I don't want the Oilers to turn down a big RH centre and that's nothing against Hall because I enjoyed his play at the WJC and he could very well be a 30 plus goal scorer in a couple of years but I am all about building down the middle and we have more depth on the wings than we do at pivot; it's basically Nash or bust down the middle isn't it?
ReplyDeleteIF eyebags says the Oilers are set on Hall then they probably are and no change in rankings will rankle them; though Elliot Friedmen frightened the fuck out of me when he said he wouldn't be surprised if the Oilers took Fowler.
My problem is this, while I believe you take the BPA in general, we need to think about our developmental system. We keep messing up because we don't think far enough ahead. How do we turn young Mr. Seguin into the dominant center Oilers fans have been waiting for?
ReplyDeleteWhere is he going to play and with whom?
What happens to the player he displaces.? The logical place, for example, would be 2C, so does Gagner move up to 1 and Horc to 3? If Nash comes out of school this year where does he play? So what about Potluny, Pouliot and Cogliano?
He is going to need big, sheltered minutes in order to develop. I just want to know who is going to surrender those minutes?
More importantly who is going to protect him. In a perfect world he'd have two mid career veteran wingers who had lousy attitudes and played rock solid positional hockey. Seguin needs guys who won't be afraid to hit anybody who comes anywhere near him. I'd guess the closest the Oilers could come is Zack Stortini and Ryan Stone. Now the poor kid is playing with guys who would protect him, can clog up the ice, but are boat anchors on offense.
Anybody have any ideas how we handle phasing him in?
The answer is easy Linnaeus. Bring in a 19 year old Kurri for Seguin.
ReplyDeleteWhen Wayne Gretzky arrived in 1978 his wingers for the first several weeks were Ace Bailey and Dave Semenko.
ReplyDeleteWayne scored a few unassisted goals, and he didn't get beat up either.
That said, I don't see a Seguin as needing any more personal protection than Gagner, who did quite nicely in his 18-year-old season playing with fellow smurfs.
Linus: what if we give the tough top six min to the 10-89 combo and then Seguin gets the Pittsburgh Staal treatment and for 41 games of the year he's pretty much getting a free ride?
ReplyDeleteOr maybe that's a waste of a year for him when he's so much younger month wise than Hall?
Lebowski:
ReplyDelete1: who gives a shit where he's "ranked" by the worst scouting service going. Let's wait and see what happens when the better reports (Redline, BobsList) start to surface before we play the rankings card.
2: It's kind of hard to project who's going to be an Actual NHL Player *insert copywright sign here*. But in most cases, those with great amounts of talent amount to legit NHL prospects.
3: To base a level of compete on size is fallacy. I've seen Penner stripped of the puck more than enough this year to know that size doesn't count for everything in a puck battle. From the "scouting reports" I've seen listed from some of the Oilogosphere's best (Bruce provided a good one for me earlier at C&B as proof), Weal doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who's going to shy away from contact and dirty areas of the rink. It's important to point out that some of the quoted "hardest players to play against" have been those that are small in stature. I refer you to probably the most famous cases, Theo Fleury and Pat Verbeek. Both were touted junior players who scored at the next level and also brought that pitbull mentality as well.
4: I'll concede that 31 might be a bit high to take Weal, specifically if there's someone like John McFarland still available (he's 30th now and was invited to a U-20 camp in the not so distant past). However if you don't think he's going to still be on the table by the time the Nashville pick rolls around, there should be a judgement call made.
5: Amen brother. Amen.
Dorito, I agree with you on the size issue with a few caveats though.
ReplyDelete1) Size isn't the end all and be all, but it does give someone a much larger chance at success. More difficult to injure, outmuscle etc.
2) Theo Fleury and Pat Verbeek are by far the exceptions and not the rule. For every Fleury there are a number of others that didn't make it.
Just look at our own Gilbert Brule for example. From the scouting reports he absolutely destroyed the WHL. 6 games in and his sternum is cracked like a walnut. A few injuries after that. He's only now gaining traction and he's not even fully established yet.
Not saying Weal isn't the real deal...just saying there is greater risk involved with a smaller player for good reason. If he's there in the 2nd though, I wouldn't be disappointed if the Oil called his name and swung for the fences. I also like Galiev in the 2nd as well.