The Edmonton Oilers are going to be busy this summer in all areas. The draft, trades, signing Jagr, buying a ticket to Okla City for Ethan rifles--there's not going to be much time to sleep.
I think we can help Steve Tambellini and the management group (I always think of them as a hopeful group, sipping tea and saying things like "when we get underground parking at the practice facility there'll be no need to go outside AT ALL! Free agents will flock here!") by listing the rfa's and suggesting solutions.
- Sam Gagner. Samwise heads to rfa status with a $875,000 ticket (thanks speeds) and there are rumblings the club will merely qualify him (100% of last season's salary). He's a guy the Oilers might want to think about signing to a longer term deal (say three years) at a reasonable price. He may cost a lot more next summer.
- Andrew Cogliano. Cogs has a $850,000 pricetag this year and a qualifying offer seems reasonable. The Oilers have no reason to spend to the cap and Cogliano shouldn't cost a lot more 2011 summer (if he's still an Oiler).
- Marc Pouliot. The perennial prospect is making $825,000 and that's probably his outer marker for 2010-11 (Oilers need to offer 105% to keep his rights). speeds had a great item on his blog about a month ago and makes a strong argument for an offer of slightly below this season's number ($750k). If you can get the bottom end of the roster (forwards 12-14) squeezed in for under 2M large that's a nice start to building a roster with experience, skill and value. Should a Pouliot take even a little step forward then the team could address a longer term solution next summer.
- Gilbert Brule. The would-be sniper is making $800,000 this season and is exactly the kind of player Edmonton will sign to a large number. I've estimated Edmonton will sign him to a $2.25M deal but as long as we're doing the blue sky thing it might be wise to offer a 2-year contract for around $3M ($1.5M a year) to see if he bites. Two year deal is as far as I would go, but he'd be a nice potential value if you can keep his salary in a range.
- Devan Dubnyk. He's making $700,000 this season and this is a contract with all kinds of alarm bells going on. Dubnyk is third on the depth chart this season and next but we know this management group suffered through an entire season with a three-headed goalie combination just so they could keep Jeff Deslauriers. This contract--the money, the one-way possibility, the roster mess it might cause--is a giant "stub his toe" negotiation for Steve Tambellini. The smart money qualifies him (105%) but without a one-way and then risks waivers in the fall. I'm not convinced the other guy is the better goalie but a decision needs to be made on these two young goalies.
- Jeff Deslauriers. A $625,000 cap hit this season and a likely pay raise during the summer. JDD has the confidence of the coach and that's probably enough for him to win the DD/JDD battle. One hopes a 1-year, $1.1M contract gets it done.
- Theo Peckham. A $600,000 hit this season and a player who might give the organization good value in 10-11. I believe the Oilers need to offer him 110% (so, $660,000) for next season but he should be able to supply a better payback than Strudwick did in the 7 slot this past season.
- Ryan Stone. He's making $600,000 this season. speeds idea (3-years, $550k per) is a good one, certainly better to offer it to Stone than Jacques (who skates like a hockey player, looks like a hockey player but may not in fact be a hockey player).
- Ryan Potulny. He's a wonderful $595,000 bargain this season but that'll end pdq once the summer arrives. I'd suggest that it takes $1M to get him signed and that the Oilers pull the trigger; if the club can get Potulny onside for the $700k speeds was talking about in his article that would be an exceptional potential value.
- JF Jacques. He's making $525,000 this season and this is a player I'd let walk. Although Jacques has size and toughness, he can't really take a pass or make one so he's the human turnover.
The club has several minor league rfa's (Ryan O'Marra, Bryan Lerg, Slava Trukhno, Josef Hrabal, Geoff Paukovich, Colin McDonald, Liam Reddox, Matt Nickerson) but we'll cover them in-depth at the end of the Falcons season in mid-April. One final note: A couple of years ago the Oilers had a similar number of rfa's and it is astounding how much of the top end (Pitkanen, Stoll, Grebeshkov) are gone. The top end of this group will return (unless dealt) but things may be different when Gagner, Cogliano and Brule get their next contracts.
You don't think they offer Gagner a longterm deal, eh LT? really? Why is that?
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping Brule and Pouliot feel some loyalty to the Oilers, and sign reasonable contracts.
ReplyDeleteIf they can reverse the trend of slight overpays for the bottom 6 as Speeds implies, then that's go a long way to helping fix what ails this club.
Of course then they'd have to use those savings wisely and not go whale hunting, and something tells me Katz likes them white whales.
Gagner to a 6.75 for 3 years deal doable? Would he sign that?
BDHS and uni: My preference would be to get a deal for Gagner done this summer and maybe they're thinking that way. But I also believe this team isn't going to spend a lot of money next season (they'll be nowhere near the cap) and suspect they don't feel any urgency with 89.
ReplyDeleteI guess they'll risk an offer sheet but they would no doubt match.
I wouldn't be adverse to a 6-7 year 3 million per season deal for Gagner myself, but that's very improbable not to mention a tad risky.
ReplyDeleteHaving Pouliot and Potulny on a 1yr deal, as the 13-14 forwards would be ideal for me. They can play in any situation, on any line in a pinch. I'm sure they will be under a mil each.
ReplyDeleteOilers mgmt is in a tough situation with Gagner. Mgmt will have to hold firm on a 3yr deal, so he can still be an RFA at the end of it, but will probably have to bend on the money. I see a 3yr/9mil deal, and then play the holy heck out of him. I think Gagner and Eberle could have some magic in the not too distant future.
Brule and Cogliano on 1 yr deals. Needs to have some breathing room here just in case the new kids are ready for primetime.
Jacques is done. 2nd back surgery and lack of puckhandling skills have done him in. I think Ryan Jones can bring more offense in the same role.
Stone on a 2 way deal. The forwards are showing more depth now than it did at the beginning of the year.
1.1M for Rollie Pollie is assinine considering what vet 1B goalies have been going for. He's chaos. Risk him on waivers.
ReplyDeleteJust to clarify something from LT's Gagner and Cogliano paragraphs
ReplyDeleteGagner has a 1.625 cap hit, but his salary is 0.875 mil meaning that his QO will be ~0.94 mil, not 1.625 mil.
Cogliano has a 1.133 cap hit, but his salary is 0.85 mil meaning that his QO will be ~0.91 mil, not 1.133 mil.
Uni:
ReplyDeleteI think they should be able to save some money on the bottom of the roster, but if it's true they were willing to spend 2 mil on Neil last summer I think it's reasonable to suggest they are more willing to spend money near the bottom of the roster than I would be.
The truth is Edmonton on a one way deal is a pretty nice "bird in the hand" for guys like Stone, Pouliot and Potulny. If they don't like the offer you present and they go UFA, are they really going to find a place that offers them a one way contract with as much ice time and money as the Oilers? Maybe, maybe not. If they're wrong and they end up in the minors it's a huge mistake. If they're right and they find somewhere that'll give them a one way deal with as much money, it's still unlikely they'd get as much icetime as in EDM to help secure future contracts.
"The Human Turnover" is a wonderful nickname for Jacques.
ReplyDeleteAs long as we get the QOs out on time, that would be a good start.
ReplyDeleteThe signing of good contracts to the right people is the main thing this management team stinks at. Underpaying valuable guys (a la Ryan Smyth) and overpaying over-rated guys (a la Khabi, thecaptain, etc, etc) is a constant headache. So, I would not be surprised if they try to put the screws to Samwise and offer the moon to Brule (who I think is nowhere near as good as his boxcars).
ReplyDeleteI hope I'm wrong, I hope there is a commitment to 'belt-tightening' but I really do see the wrong guys get the right money.
Why do I believe that Josef Hrabal was bought out last summer?
ReplyDeleteBar Qu nail's it regarding the management team and it's poor record of contract management.
ReplyDeleteThey absolutely have to get this summer's crop right or we're going to continue in salary cap mess for the foreseeable future.
Brule's has a nice season, but 1 season does not make for an overpay. Gagner has a track record and is getting better, but is wasting away on the 4th line while the Oilers either showcase or evaluate what role Cogs will play next year.
A three year deal for Gags makes sense - but do you want to tie him up a little longer so his next deal does not expire at the same time Hall/Seguin entry level contract expires?
And has Pou (the son of LT) earned another contract? Frankly, I like what I've seen from him and a value contract for him as a 4C would be good. But if it can't be done, you have to walk away.
And I have to think that one of the kid goalies could be gone next season - but would think it'd be done as a trade at the end of camp in September.
If you do three years for Gagner, he only has one year of RFA status left and can opt for arbitration for that last year.
ReplyDeleteIt's a ways down the road, but I'd be happier doing two years on this deal and then hopefully long term after that.
I'll absolutely fucking cry if JDD gets a $1.1 mil contract.
ReplyDeleteIf he does, it will be completely obvious that this management group hasn't learned a damn thing about goaltenders or the market for them.
I think you take a risk on Gagner. Something like 7 or 8 years at $4-4.5 and see if he bites.
ReplyDeleteSure it has the potential to backfire, but he's progressing well and I think that's the kind of deal that pays off big time in 4 years.
There were two silver linings to this shit storm of a season:
ReplyDelete1. The draft pick
2. Potential values all over the place among the people due to be signed. By the numbers, nearly everyone on that list has a weak case. They're either -100, have horrible counting stats, missed half the year due to the plague or have no historical evidence that this year isn't a fluke. A tough negotiator would be able to get all of these guys signed cheap.
The problem is figuring out whether any of them are any good. I could sign 3-month old milk from my local Sobeys for below cost. Great value!! Problem is, when I open the fucker its going to smell like smegma and no one wants smegma on their cereal.
Evaluation time for Steve T.
Problem is, when I open the fucker its going to smell like smegma and no one wants smegma on their cereal.
ReplyDeleteWell, I'll cross that off the list of "Things I'll Never See In Writing".
Guys like Brule are where the risk-judgers make their dough. I wouldn't be too scared to give him decent dough on a 2 year deal. Don't see much Nilsson in him. He's versatile and has the 1 top level skill (shot). That's what we need in the middle six. He's also shown some chemistry with one of our key players that should be staying.
ReplyDeleteOverpaying on potential is the way to being a perpetually loser franchise.
ReplyDeleteSimilarly overpaying on past ability, loyalty, whatever.
Check out how the big soccer clubs in Europe operate, for insight on how real teams operate. The second a top player is starting to wane, bang! Out he goes.
I like Brule a lot. He cares, and he delivers.
ReplyDeleteNilsson, POS, not so much. They're overhyped glorified depth players, with a little skill tossed in which keeps them in the NHL for a little while longer than they rightfully should be.
//If you do three years for Gagner, he only has one year of RFA status left and can opt for arbitration for that last year.//
ReplyDeleteExactly. Gagner is effectively a UFA in 4 years if you offer him a three-year contract. It will be two years, or six or greater. Bet on two.
You don't get Pouliot for cheaper unless you offer him more than one year, since he can just sign his qualifying offer.
Offering 4th line players more than the qualifying offer is dumb, with all the UFA's on the market every year Three years for Stone, with the years Vande Velde and Hartikainen are having, and with his gimpy knee is just dumb.
I would only give Brule his qualifying offer and would be willing to negotiate only a modestly higher raise. In 4 years he has not played a full season, and he is also still a defensive liability.
Two years means he can choose arbitration for the 3rd and be a UFA. You may only need him for a year to get to Eberle. Eberle and him are competing for the same job.
Cogliano, Potulny. Qualifying offer only.
Stop handing out contracts like candy.
The only people on multiyear contracts shoudl be players in the core.
Hunter, I don't think you can compare a Euro Football top end team to hockey.
ReplyDeleteIt's also true that those European footy clubs don't have a NHL cap to work around...and that there are only about 4 teams in each league that can really compete dollar wise for top players.
So for all intents and purposes, teams like Manchester U, Barcelona, etc. just farm the other clubs for top level talent. They can afford to boot any star off their team since they can easily just buy another one. When in comes down to it they only have a handful of teams to compete against for players, and they have a much larger world pool to draw a steady stream of top end talent.
"Two years means he can choose arbitration for the 3rd and be a UFA. You may only need him for a year to get to Eberle. Eberle and him are competing for the same job."
ReplyDeleteThis doesn't make sense. When did Eberle become a medium-hitter with a wicked slapshot? Eberle is more a top six scorer, with Brule being a middle six support scorer. There's certainly room for both. Brule's also not exactly a geezer.
I am contrite and abashed. I apologize to anyone who was offended by my recent comments on hockey players from Russia. These comments were insensitive, in poor taste and have no factual basis.
ReplyDeleteMoreover players from this country are highly skilled and some are among the best in the world.
Furthermore I thank Lowetide for allowing me to post again and thus giving me this opportunity to express my regrets.
Brule and Eberle, for the next few years, are soft minute out-scorers.
ReplyDeleteBrule is not a tough minutes player, and can't be on a checking line, since he is a defensive liability.
So unless, Brule is on the 4th line as an energy guy, he and Eberle are competing for one position.
For the reason Schitzo outlined I would prefer a manageable two year deal for Gagner. At the very least I suspect they'll leave one year of RFA rights for the players. Leaving two years and then seeking a long term deal if that's desirable at the time is the best bet though.
ReplyDeleteGodot - You're building a team one way, I'm doing it another. You can't simply assume every team is built with the same structure.
ReplyDeleteYou're assuming a "checking line" and "energy line" a "soft minute line" and a "power line" it appears.
I believe such an approach to be much less than ideal.
godot10:
ReplyDeleteI was suggesting the team try to sign "4th line/PB" players for less than their QO's, but on one way deals.
I think that Stone's knee provides a reasonable argument against signing him to a 3 year deal, but then again I have no idea how it is projected going forward.
But I don't think signing Stone to a one way, 2-3 year deal at (or just above) the league minimum in any way would block more talented prospects - someone has to be the 13th-14th F and a guy like Stone making the league min is as good a fit as could be expected, IMO.
re: Pouliot, that may be true, but you could always make it known that you won't necessarily qualify him. After all, his QO is ~0.97mil - you can make a credible argument that, if Pouliot won't sign for 2 or 3 years at 700K, you'd be better off to let him go and take you chances on finding a Moore (1.1 mil), Comrie (1.25 mil), Malhotra (0.7 mil) Goc (0.55 mil).
Look at the numbers that Cogliano is putting up now that he is playing with actual talent. We need to recognize the difference talent and opportunity.
ReplyDeleteIn Gagner's case he has been given every gravy minute possible since entering the league. His numbers really aren't all that impressive given the opportunity, and on another team his numbers could be significantly less. He's a good young player but there is no way he has earned an Ales Hemsky type contract. 2 years 2.6 per.
Unless Gilbert Brule's agent is Scott Boras I don't see why we would have trouble extending him. Edmonton basically brought Brule back from the dead after his career was in serious question. We gave him an opportunity that was more based on faith than merit and I'd like to think that Brule and his camp would recognize that when starting negotiations. 1 year 1.5 or 2 year 1.75.
I think Cogliano might be a little harder to sign. I'm sure Cogs and his agent didn't appreciate being handcuffed to Moreau that last 1.5 years and wouldn't be surprised if he seeks out an offer sheet in the 2nd round pick compensation range.
Edmonton probably deals him at the draft and then looks stupid when Cogliano produces with a real opportunity.
You're assuming a "checking line" and "energy line" a "soft minute line" and a "power line" it appears.
ReplyDeleteI believe such an approach to be much less than ideal.
I prefer the 80's dynasty model:
Supreme line
Awesome line
Kick ass line
Coke line
Coke line
ReplyDeleteBased on size, or partying habits?
Nice one, Schitzo. That would be the coke machine line though. No need for one when the players can't feel pain. :)
ReplyDeleteWho is the modern equivalent of Bob Probert? He could anchor the coke line either way.
ReplyDeleteI'd still love to see Kip Brennan for a game or two, guy was entertaining in the preseason.
ReplyDeleteScoring depth throughout the lineup, with responsibility falling to 4 or 5 players interspersed. Make them beat the whole team. Depending on the game this also allows for maximum flexibility (load up an offensive line, load up a defensive line, etc.)
I thought the 80s dynasty was
ReplyDeleteCoke line
Coke line
Coke line
Coke line
Or maybe SI had it wrong.
That's what Slats told me, anyway.
@ speeds
ReplyDeleteCan you clarify what percentage the qualifying offers must be made at,and does this change as their RFA status changes...?
Gagner and Cogs appear to need a 110% QO...?
This discussion came up when Grebs was traded-I don't think we ever clarified whether Grebs was due a 100% QO or 110% QO.
thanks in advance
//Pouliot, that may be true, but you could always make it known that you won't necessarily qualify him. After all, his QO is ~0.97mil - you can make a credible argument that, if Pouliot won't sign for 2 or 3 years at 700K, you'd be better off to let him go //
ReplyDeletePouliot has no incentive to negotiate. He is a UFA without the QO, and if you give him a QO, he'll sign it.
Pouliot won't have any trouble finding an offer elsewhere. Pouliot has just been with one team, has a high pedigree, and somebody will always be willing to take another look at such a player like the Oilers did with Brule
Don't you think Pittsburgh would jump to sign him for one year, and don't you think Pouliot would jump at the chance. He'd get to play with one of Crosby, Malkin, or Staal.
I think it is 50/50 whether the Oilers qualify him. It really depends on what Quinn thinks of him the rest of the way.
Nice post LT,
ReplyDeleteI agree on everything, except I'd try to get Gagner locked in now. I think he and his agent would be willing to accept that due to his size and speed, Gagner at least might not become an elite offensive player at 5.75-6.5MM. Moreover, they'd have to reaalize that there is a chance that he might only ever become a decent 2nd line center, earning 3.5-4MM.
I think the lack of clarity in Gagner's future is something you really have to try and exploit for your own good. Offer him security, i.e. offer him a really long term deal at a number that's a higher salary than his worst case scenario.
Admittedly that kind of offer is a risk (all offers are risks) but it seems like a good bet for a very nice payoff.
I'd offer something like this:
Year 1: 2.0MM
Year 2: 2.75MM
Year 3: 3.5MM
Year 4: 3.5MM
Year 5: 4.5MM
Year 5: 4.5MM
Year 6: 5MM
Year 7: 5MM
Year 8: 5.5MM
Yearly cap hit: 4.53
That's the kind of deal that's really hard to turn down for any hockey player except a Crosby or Ovechkin. Your set for life as a multimillionaire, and when you're 28 and in your prime, you can get a new deal for even bigger dollars. My guess is Gagner might take a similar deal, with slightly lower numbers if you pushed it.
A deal like that has a lot working in the Oilers favor too. Suppose Gagner pans out to only be a good second liner (18G,40Assists) for the rest of his career. Well, right around year 6, he starts to make 5MM, which looks like a big overpay. But that's looking at it in todays dollars. Salaries are likely to go up. And by that time Gagner will be a veteran with some defensive savy, so he's likely not going to be much of an overpay. And, he's only paid at that rate for 3 years.
Moreover, even though it sucks to have Gagner in the lineup now as a 4.5MM cap hit -that is an overpay, given how young he is and that he's still making mistakes- but it doesn't matter that much since we're ging to suck next year anyway.
Gagner will be a good top 6 player by age 22, according to anyone reasonable, and a 4.5MM cap hit is a small overpay for a guy like that even in today's dollars.
IMO, this Gagner deal is the biggest deal for the Oilers this summer -even more important than the 1st overall pick. If they get it right in the way they did Penner and Hemsky, their cap situation in 2-3 years will look awesome. If they screw the pooch, and sign Gagner next summer after he's had a perhaps lucky offensive year playing with Hemsky and Hall, we could be in a much worse cap situation.
Please forgive me, if you think my cap ideas are way stupid. Just my opinion, and would love to hear what someone more knowledgeable like speeds, LT, or Mc79 would aim at offering Gagner.
//Scoring depth throughout the lineup, with responsibility falling to 4 or 5 players interspersed. Make them beat the whole team. Depending on the game this also allows for maximum flexibility (load up an offensive line, load up a defensive line, etc.)//
ReplyDeleteEberle and Brule don't fit on the same team longer term unless one of them is able to handle tough minutes soon.
You have to have two right wings able to handle tough minutes. If your right wings are Hemsky, Eberle, Brule, and Stortini, you really only have Hemsky.
Nothing wrong with balanced lines. You still need two lines to handle the toughs. Eberle might in a few years. Brule, four years into his career, has shown no evidence of being able to handle tough minutes. Right now, they are both soft minute outscorers. One would have to get rid of Stortini, and move the enforcer role elsewhere in the lineup to have room for both Eberle and Brule on a good team.
I think Brule tops out as a soft minutes player, and that means he is useful in the short term (AND WORTH SIGNING), but I'm skeptical about his long term utility.
term.
The 80's Oilers had Coke in goal, not on the 4th line.
ReplyDeletegerta:
ReplyDeleteless than or equal to $0.660 mil = QO of 110% previous salary (not cap hit)
greater than $0.660mil but less than $1.0mil = QO of 105% previous salary (not cap hit), but the QO can not exceed $1.0 mil. For example, an RFA who had a salary of $0.99 mil does not receive a 105% QO; he receives a QO of $1.0 mil.
greater than or equal to 1.0 mil = QO of 100% previous salary (not cap hit)
Kris,
ReplyDeleteI might consider reversing those numbers (giving incentive by overpaying at the front of the contract and increased tradeability by lower actual salary at the end), but it is an interesting idea for what has been floated around here on his potential. I believe his numbers at this age line up with Iginla, H. Sedin and some others who would look like a bargain at 4.5/yr.
I sort of see Langkow as a good comp for Samwise so I don't see him busting out for big numbers a year or two from now. Also, I'm generally risk averse and would prefer to have management show they can take a walk before swinging for the fences on another deal. 2 years for Gagner.
ReplyDeleteJDD has the confidence of the coach and that's probably enough for him to win the DD/JDD battle.
ReplyDeleteHe has the confidence of the coach? Really? All I ever hear is frustration from Quinn when he speaks of JDD.
I think JFJ needs to be let go but I can't help having the feeling that he's going to go to another team and magically become a 30 goal scorer. What an odd creature.
Ribs, would that team be the Stockton Thunder?
ReplyDeleteIt's kind of depressing that the off season moves are the most exciting thing surrounding this club.
ReplyDeleteI know the next 2 drafts are the only things that I'm excited about.
Need For Swede: The Fall for Hall 2: The Drop For Adam Larsson
Hype is such a wonderful thing.
I'd kind of like to see what Traktor would offer some of these players.
ReplyDeleteOne thing even I know(I'm not too terribly bright re finance), is that only a fool overpays for anything unless desperate. Is that what we want our management to be? Desperate?
Godot - Faced with a choice between Eberle-Brule or Stortini, I'm moving Stortini over one of those guys every time. You can replace him rather easily and in a different part of the lineup if need be. Brule, not so much.
ReplyDeleteRibs - How exactly would Jacques get enough shots on net to score 30 goals? He's no sniper and already has extreme difficulty getting shots on net.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've always heard, Jacques is a star - just plays in the wrong league.
ReplyDeleteSend him to Oklahoma and watch him return to his happy hunting grounds.
Some talk that I heard is that Ryan Stone may not be back and may not even be able to play hockey anymore (NHL calibre anyway). His knee is a mess and a previous surgery he had on it did not correctly fix his problem. He is getting bone on bone damage at the knee joint as well as having ligament damage. Yzerman had a similar problem while he was playing and had to have a fairly extensive surgery to aleviate it. Yzerman's skating is far better than Stone's and was able to overcome it. Stone apparently has to decide if he wants to go through with the surgery.
ReplyDeleteGodot10:
ReplyDeleteCome June 29th, if Pouliot is unwilling to work with you and you have to decide between qualifying him, or not, I think would probably qualify him, knowing what I know today.
It's worth taking a shot at tying him up longer, because the longer term security may well be worth something to him. In Edmonton he might well get more ice time to prove himself an NHL player when it comes to his next contract.
Edmonton is able to offer him a 2 way contract while retaining his rights, so in theory that should be a bit of a bargaining chip for the Oilers. Pouliot may feel like he wouldn't clear, and he probably wouldn't, but it would be disastrous financially if he's wrong and gets stuck in the AHL next season making 70K when he could have signed a 3 year deal guaranteeing $2.1 mil. I think that provides some incentive for him to take less provided he gets a one way deal. It may not in Pouliot's mind, and if it wouldn't then you adjust, but it's worth asking.
Pit certainly could sign him to a one year deal if the Oilers don't qualify him. And it may well be in his interest to take less to go there, if an opportunity pops up. However, Pouliot being worth 700K on a one way deal to PIT is not a reason for the Oilers to sign him for 950K. He has to be worth it to them.
SK, LMHF - The guy can play. Why it hasn't translated onto the NHL's playing surface, I have no idea.
ReplyDeleteTencer twit....
ReplyDeleteSam Gagner left practice early today. Quinn says it's a hip injury, leaving him questionable for tomorrow night.
Ribs - I'm sure much of it is psychological, but he should have learned by now. Injuries or no injuries.
ReplyDeleteI've never seen the hands required to beat an NHL goalie, or get quality chances on an NHL goalie either.
Sorting AHL successes from NHL ones is a strange business. Look at Corey Locke. How can that man possibly have only played 1 NHL game with those numbers?
Speeds:
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I see the allure in saving 200k on Pouliot's hit when we could just sign him for 1 year at 900k and deal him for a pick at the deadline.
The club is likely to be 5-10 million under the cap next year anyways so wouldn't flexibility be more appealing than an extra 200k in savings.
Why sign Pouliot for 3 years when we can sign Moore for 1.1 million and deal him for a 2nd round pick at the deadline?
5'9" might have something to do with it. His numbers are somewhat similar to Linglet in Springfield, and you wonder why Linglet can't translate that into NHL success either.
ReplyDeleteThe club is likely to be 5-10 million under the cap next year anyways so wouldn't flexibility be more appealing than an extra 200k in savings.
ReplyDeleteThat would be a huge savings - who are you thinking gets dealt?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteRon Low mugged in Calgary.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/down+dirty+shame/2719468/story.html
"That would be a huge savings - who are you thinking gets dealt?"
ReplyDeleteSouray, Moreau and O'Sullivan are gone but we might have to take back some money.
Pisani's 2.5 will come off the books.
I think they will look to deal Horcoff for a lesser bad contract (Olesz) if possible and considering management already peddled Penner at the deadline to get another lottery pick he might be moved at the draft as well.
Yea, Locke and Linglet both have skating issues and Locke has the size thing on top of that. There's usually some specific reason that is keeping them out of the NHL.
ReplyDeleteWith JFJ it's tough. He's big, skates like the wind, can put up offense, hits people... It's all there. The only thing holding him back seems to be his head. If he ever finds that switch, look out.
Sounds like Las Vegas rube Kevin Lowe thinking, re overpaying Pouliot.
ReplyDeleteEither he's worth the money, or he isn't worth the money.
It's not particle physics.
Ribs:
ReplyDeleteWith respect, hasn't Jacques already been handed enough opportunity to acertain that insofar as the NHL is concerned, he's a bust?
Ribs - "With JFJ it's tough. He's big, skates like the wind, can put up offense, hits people... It's all there. The only thing holding him back seems to be his head. If he ever finds that switch, look out."
ReplyDeleteHe won't find it though. He's given zero indication, including nearly becoming the player with the most games played in NHL history to start a career without a point.
He can't put up offence in the NHL. Also, though he has decent speed, he is not a technically sound skater. He'd knock a lot more people over if he was. His skating holds him back as an effective NHL level hitter, which is too bad considering how much he's already able to dish out.
I understand it's frustrating and that pieces seem to be there, but there's no "it" to his game. Never has been at the NHL level.
hunter - Like I said, I think it's time he moves on. He's had more opportunities than a lot of guys and he can't say he hasn't been given his shot. It just baffles me how he can be so good in the minor leagues and be such a dissapointment once he gets into an NHL game. It's likely at this point that his light isn't going to go on but I say the possibility is still there.
ReplyDeleteWith respect, hasn't Jacques already been handed enough opportunity to acertain that insofar as the NHL is concerned, he's a bust?
ReplyDeleteHear hear
If he was going to do something, he woulda done it by now. Cut him loose.
A quick hit on the significant questions:
ReplyDeleteGagner - a 2 year deal makes sense for everyone (Sam included) and there is no reason to rush - 2 x $2.25 - $2.5 mil is fine.
Cogliano - pumped down the stretch and dumped at the draft for pick or a very good 3rd line center/winger
Brule - buy low / sell high Tambo....just keep saying it over and over. If the kid was capable defensively I'd be all over keeping him - but that's not the case so you cash in the asset now instead of overpaying.
MAP - bargain bottom 6 guy with some size (who can play in the top 6 if need be) who you should be able to sign for 2 years with little risk and he likely out-performs. No brainer
Potulny - a 2 year deal for under 2 million is fine in the same role as MAP. No need to go higher as he is no Glencross (lacks the speed and size) and no big deal if he walks
JFJ - no harm in offering him his QO as he's cheap and size/speed always get another look. Somebody would take a flier on him on waivers in the worst case scenario.
Stone - let's see - 0 goals and a blown out knee - time to make a business decision and let him go. Too bad as he's a good kid. Give him a walk-on invite if he wants it.
Pisani - best 13th forward in the league - that's how I'd look at him - and if he can play's 40 games a year he's certainly worth keeping
Comrie - decent value but wrong team - let him walk.
Johnson - decent guy for the #5/6 slot on a 2 year deal for $1 million or less
Peckham - qualify him and he's probably ready for a #6/7 slot as long as the shoulder is alright. Sign a value UFA dman over the summer and a Johnson/Peckham/UFA group is fine for the 5/6/7 slots.
JDD - we know what he is and what his top-end likely is (decent backup goalie). Problem for JDD is that a similar or better package is available every year for peanuts. Put him in a trade package with Cogs or Brule at the draft or offer him a 2 way. He's had his chance and it's time to move on since there is little risk that he will turn into anything more than he already is.
DD - give him a one year / one way deal and give him the chance JDD had over the last two years. He's two years younger than JDD and ahead of his development curve so let's see if he can mature into more than a backup - and if he can't - then ditch him and move on to the next guy coming up (Roy). Rinse - repeat until you develop a young guy who actually is a top end starter.
LMHH#1, the same could have been said about Brule heading into this season.
ReplyDeleteIn the 61 games he played the previous season, he managed just 9 points (8 more than Jacques in his first 60 games).
Not that I think much of Jacques anymore, but I don't think Brule's all that great either. He's a pure chaos player who hasn't seemed to pick much up in terms of game smarts.
I'd be very wary about the contract I sign him to this year... I don't think he's going to be able to replicate this season.
I like DB"s idea of inking 89 longterm and at those numbers.
ReplyDeleteThere's a slight chance he could be a bit of an overpay in a couple of years but I think there's a better chance that he'll be a damn fine bargain.
Another thing i wanted to touch on briefly is that I think it's a bit much to think of 78/16 as the 13th and 14th forwards.
These guys aren't world beaters but we don't have talent falling off the vines either so I can't see how they aren't top 12 forwards come next year.
Better to risk losing the odd(okay to good) player over a few greedy dollars from his agents pov, than to overpay an entire bloody team of pluggers, just to keep some pathetic core together.
ReplyDeleteAre you reading this, Mister Lowe?
If I'm the Oilers, I don't cut the Crazy Train. I lock him up with a good salary.
ReplyDeleteIn OKC.
Guy's got a lot of tools, and his history injury history is a terrible, but he still brings some great tools to the table. They just aren't NHL calibre.
He's a guy who can gring some size and speed to the top 9 in the AHL. Offer him a 2-way in case of injuries where he makes league min in the bigs and 75k in the minors for 3 years.
Otherwise, qualify everyone, and see if any offersheets come in. Odds are they don't - not after we cleared all that cap space. We've already got more than enough bodies, so the only question left is do we get anything back for any of them.
I'm not opposed to locking Gagner down long term now either.
ReplyDeleteWith Hall/Seguin, Eberle coming next year, Hemsky coming back, MPS probably coming the year after, 89's counting numbers will probably never be this low again.
There is just going to be way more talent in the top 6 than what we saw this year.
You may be able to do 8 years 4/yr average.
Another way of putting my point.
ReplyDeleteIf you sign Gagner to a low number for 1 or two years, that results in cap savings now. Unfortunately, since we suck now and for the next 1-2 years, it doesn't really help us win anything, except possibly a low playoff seed and a 1st round exit.
If we sign Gagner to a longer term deal now, we can effectively pay him a low amount for the first few years and a higher amount for the years where he's going to be a better player. (You can put the low paid years at the end, a la Bar Qu's suggestion, if you want.) The upside of signing Gagner to a long term deal now then, is we sign him to deal that will have a lower per year cap hit than a deal signed 1-2 years from now, when he's a better player, when he's closer to UFA, and when salary's for comparable players have gone up.
In fact, the more I think about it, the case for not signing Gagner is very weak. No? What is the case for not signing Gagner in the face of what I just said, i.e. that it will result in cap savings in the years that we're going to be more competitive?
I just saw that I was basically ditto-ing DB in a long winded way. Sorry DB. And, "ditto."
ReplyDeleteWhat is the case for not signing Gagner in the face of what I just said, i.e. that it will result in cap savings in the years that we're going to be more competitive?
ReplyDeleteGagner doesn't want to?
According to NHL Numbers, McDonald's a Class IV UFA. Is that wrong?
ReplyDeleteNot that it really matters very much.
20 year deal for Gags.
ReplyDeleteLet's get right outside the box.
Nothing could possib-lie go wrong.
ReplyDeletePotulny could be a bargain bottom-six guy; the problem is that this team's so bad he's a top-sixer, and will likely expect to be paid accordingly. I like him, but I can't see us getting a good value contract. Same thing with Brule: if he's loyal enough to sign on the terms Traktor suggests then I take it, but I'm not optimistic.
ReplyDeleteAs much as Cogs' first seasons were inflated by good shooting percentages, I can't help but to think that this one's been an anomaly in the other direction. Sign him to a cheap one year contract and keep him; I doubt his trade value goes down, and it could conceivably go way up.
I have no idea why you wouldn't re-sign Pouliot. He'll be cheap, and has established himself as a competent bottom-sixer, and may yet be more.
I'm with Kris on Gagner: when we signed Hemsky to his current contract, I believe the consensus was that it was a good move, but a ballsy one. Considering where the cap has gone, in hindsight it looks like a no-brainer. I'd like to see something similar done with Gagner, who is after all tracking ahead of Hemsky.
Do we really want close to 18% of the salary cap tied up in Gagner and Horcoff for the next 6 years?
ReplyDeleteWhat happens when a real player (Hemsky, Hall/Seguin) needs to get paid and Horcoff and Gagner are unmovable?
"I'm with Kris on Gagner: when we signed Hemsky to his current contract, I believe the consensus was that it was a good move, but a ballsy one."
ReplyDeleteHemsky was coming off a 77 point season and was 1 game away from winning the cup.
Hemsky is also over 5'10 and can skate.
What happens when a real player (Hemsky, Hall/Seguin) needs to get paid and Horcoff and Gagner are unmovable?
ReplyDeleteDo you have any reason to believe that Gagner would be unmoveable at a $4.5 million cap hit, with term? He's a 20 year old who's put up 131 NHL points; most people who have done that have turned out to be pretty decent players. There's risk, obviously, but substantially less than there is with Hall or Seguin.
Only you think Gagner would be unmoveable.
ReplyDeleteHemsky was coming off a 77 point season and was 1 game away from winning the cup.
ReplyDeleteSo when your team comes within one game of winning the Cup, you should pay your players more? Sure thing, Kev.
Hemsky is also over 5'10 and can skate.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the Oilers' site, Hemsky's got 1 inch and 1 pound on Gagner. And six years.
"So when your team comes within one game of winning the Cup, you should pay your players more? Sure thing, Kev."
ReplyDeleteI never said that.
But we do need to recognize the difference between a 1st line player, and a player playing 1st line minutes.
Sam Gagner's an outstanding bet, just a crazy good bet. I mentioned in the first post that a 3-year deal might be something the team looks at closely, because if he has that breakout season then the Oilers will pay dearly.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good time to pay the kid, but there is something out there in the ether that states they'll just qualify him.
Detroit wouldn't give Gagner more money than Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I don't think it is reasonable to give Gagner a bigger contract than Hemsky's at this point.
ReplyDelete@Kris
ReplyDeleteYear 1: 2.0MM
Year 2: 2.75MM
Year 3: 3.5MM
Year 4: 3.5MM
Year 5: 4.5MM
Year 5: 4.5MM
Year 6: 5MM
Year 7: 5MM
Year 8: 5.5MM
Yearly cap hit: 4.53
A deal structured this way has some appeal, but likely wouldn't get past a half-decent agent.
A half-decent agent would have a firm grasp on the time value of money, and realize that $5.5 million eight years from now has a real value significantly less than face value. And would politely decline the deal as structured. Why leave money on the table?
My impression is that many, if not most, agents are educated types. Guys that went to law school, or at least have a bachelor's. Our GM/PHO brought their high school texts on the bus while playing junior hockey.
Even if you've got a Rick Olcyzk type on your side of the table, haven't we seen evidence that he doesn't really under the finer points of the CBA?
Bad long term contracts are what got this team in trouble in the first place.
ReplyDeleteThey have a number of bad contracts to work off and its going to take years. Compounding it by possibly making more trouble won't help them climb out of the hole that they have dug themselves into.
Seriously.
Give Gagner a few years to mature and see what he is going to develop into.
If he continues to develop and increase his abilities then look at signing him long term.
The team is fixated on locking up players to value deals but they are batting 1 for 10 on their signings.
Nilsson and O'Sullivan are going to be making almost 5 Million next year, nice having that salary tied up on players that are healthy scratches. Expensive book ends.
Gilbert will be making 5.5, Horpensky almost 16 Million.
How about limiting contracts to 1 or 2 years and paying the players market value?
As RFA's they can always match any offers that come in or let them go for picks.
Buyout O'Sullivan and Nilsson.
Trade Moreau, bundle him with a young prospect that they were planning to let go anyhow, or bury him in the minors.
Trade Souray.
Offer Comrie and Pisani both 1 year deals on the cheap.
Sign two freaking centers that can take faceoffs and bring in a coach that can help the them. I would suggest Adam Oates but he's been picked up.
Sign the RFA's to 1 and 2 year contracts, keeping the ones you want.
Replace some of the 2-5 Million guys with more 1-3 Million guys and build up some depth on the squad so injuries won't kill the team again next year.
@ Dee Dee
ReplyDeleteYou've read my mind, right down to the last detail. Its how I'd want things to shake down as well.
The fact that anyone advocates giving raises to virtually the entire RFA roster after the team has finished in last place by double digits is appalling.
ReplyDeleteThe thinking during this off-season for the Oilers should be similar to the Clinton White House. Think about all this money we don't have to waste on nuclear weapons/useless hockey players we don't need and use the savings on something useful, like ending the deficit/getting better players.
In other words, it's time to cut the fat and gristle, and most of the players on the Oilers RFA list would be a great place to start.
Why keep losers????