Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Time for Wreckum?

Lubomir Visnovsky will have an MRI Friday and if the news is as we expect, Theo Peckham should get the call from Edmonton on Friday. Peckham can do a lot to help himself in terms of steady work in the fall (at the NHL level) and Ladislav Smid is overdue for a trip up the depth chart.

This will be an extremely interesting situation for both defenders, as coach MacT could go in a different direction. The Oilers top 3 (Souray, Gilbert & Grebeshkov) could be joined by veteran Steve Staios on the top pairings or (God forbid) Jason Strudwick.

However, Ladislav Smid has played in 177 NHL games and is 23 years old. He'll be an RFA this summer and is making $952,000 (nhlnumbers.com) with a cap hit of $886,000 (same source). Paying him more than 5-6D money will be difficult if he can't do the job.

According to Desjardins' he's playing the easiest available minutes with the least able helpers. He is -13 Corsi (better than Staios and Strudwick) and his EV GF/GA ON (13-15) is mid-pack among the Oilers NHL regulars on the blue this season.

Should the coach pass on Smid as a top 4 option, I suspect we have an early tell about what we can expect moving forward into the summer.

As for Peckham, this is a really nice chance to show he can compete for a top 6 spot in the fall. He did not do well in a cup of coffee early, but there are indications that he's having a good season on that trainwreck in Springfield. Here are the Falcons' D plus minus (over 30 games):

  • Peckham -4
  • Chorney -21
  • Roy -23
And here's what Jonathan Willis found in terms of toughness of minutes:

  • Theo Peckham: 1.834
  • Cody Wild: 1.812
  • Taylor Chorney: 1.693
  • Josef Hrabal: 1.658
  • Robbie Bina: 1.651
  • Mathieu Roy: 1.608
  • Ryan Constant: 1.571
  • Jake Taylor: 1.481
  • Bryan Young: 1.476
  • Sebastien Bisaillon: 1.309
  • Mike Gabinet: 1.130
I'd say there isn't much competiton in terms of possible callups, although Cody Wild has nice numbers in the time he's been in the AHL.

16 comments:

  1. Staios and Visnovsky both being Right D's makes me think Staios is the obvious choice to fill in on the top four.

    So that means we'll probably see Reddox drop back there, and Smid will play with Horcoff and Hemsky.

    I'm not much of a Peckham supporter (saw him bad ;p), but I'd be willing to see him have a shot at 6th D over Strudwick for a couple of games.

    St.Louis is a good team to play a rookie against, and Detroit is pratically a guareented loss anyways so why not.

    If Peckham proves to not belong then send him back down right away rather then let him hang around eatng popcorn. Mat Roy is the guy who can tackle that job, if pressbox filler is all the Oilers want/require from the farm.

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  2. Peckham is the logical choice based on professional experience and raw talent. But just watch management do something unbelievably stupid and bring up Chorney because they want to "replace puck-mover with puck-mover" or some stupid reasoning.

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  3. 71 doesn't kill penalties and I have a feeling that either of 37-77 or a combination of both will fill in nicely on the PP but obviously it's gonna be a killer at EV.

    I don't have much hope that either of 5-24 can step into the top four and do a good job and it's an older school tip but I'd re-unit last year's stretch drive top min duo - 37-77 - and then see which of 5 or 24 is the best fit with 44 in the second duo.

    Then you've got the loser plus most likely 43 in the third pairing with young Peckham on the fringe.

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  4. Why would Edmonton wait until Friday to make a call up? Is there some bureaucracy involved?

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  5. I'm still waiting for someone to unravel the mystery of Cody Wild.

    As for the 6th D, it's Strudwick, and I doubt it's even close in the brain of the coach.

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  6. Here's the plan for the next game:
    1 - Call up Robbie Schremp.
    2 - Put him in net.
    3 - Put Roloson on wing in Hemsky's spot on 1st line.
    4 - Put Hemsky on D in Souray's spot.
    5 - Make Souray the goalie coach.
    6 - Call out Pete Peeters (current goalie coach) in the media and send hom to the press box.

    There. This should take us at least to the end of the second period before changing it all up again.
    Now back to trolling...

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  7. I don't think there should be any doubt that Theo Peckham is the obvious candidate for the #6 spot right now. He's doing well in Springfield (considering) and the organization likes him, so it works out both politically and on merit. He also adds some size/nastiness, which this team could use.

    This of course is unless Strudwick blows the doors off in the next couple of games.

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  8. JW - very funny re: Strudwick ;)

    Journal says expect Grebs and Gilbert to play together and likely Staios to get the bump to play with Souray.

    This could get ugly.

    If Peckham gets called up they had better damn well play him.

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  9. BDHS: I already feel bad for Souray. The fact that they're running 37-77 and 44-24 tells me that they'll probably split the tough opp, but 37-77 will get the offensive ice-time, and 24-44 will get the defensive ice-time (at least, that's how Huddy/MacT rolled with those two pairings before).

    Given that the first game is in St. Louis, it may not hurt too much initially, but down the line...

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  10. Souray and Staios together? Ugh. Just when you thought things could not get worse...

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  11. JW - yep, v Detroit it could be a mess

    Staios has struggled against the bums, can't see him holding his own when Hossa and Datsyuk are bearing down on him

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  12. I don't get Staios. This year, he's had pretty much the same performance as last season, going from first-rate competition to third-pairing competition.

    I wonder if that "personal issue" he had earlier this year is related, or if the wheels have just fallen off.

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  13. Oilers in ninth place
    Lowetide saying Smid is going to be traded
    Everything is just like it should be

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  14. Staios could end up doing alright. He may respond well to the increased responsibility and he won't be able to - probably subconciously - blame his partner when things go wrong. Souray and Gilbert have been slightly outchanced over the last twenty games taking the primary toughs while Grebs and Vis have been outchancing taking the secondary toughs. I think there's a good chance the dropoff from Gilbert to Staios against toughs won't be as bad as the dropoff from Vis to Gilbert in terms of outchancing the opposition by a wide margin. Grebs and Gilbert weren't particularly successful together at the start of the season. Hopefully they've both improved substantially since then.

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  15. Staios and Souray did very well together last season -- best shut-down pair I saw last season.

    But Staios seems a different player this year, so I'd like to see Smid get a shot in the top four.

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  16. A quick observation about the Springfield D-men:

    Chorney was even -yes, Taylor Chroney was even- in January on a terrible team.

    That's quite an improvement from minus 14 in December.

    Any chance Chorney gets rewarded with a cup of coffee? The org. did say he was almost ready at camp and he seems to have learned something in December.

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