You ran out of gasDown the road a piece
Then the battery went dead
And now the cable wont reach...
Its her last chance
Her timings all wrong
Her last chance
She cant idle this long
Her last chance
Turn her over and go
Pullin out of the last chance texaco
-Rickie Lee Jones
If you're an Edmonton Oiler fan, the timing is definitely all wrong. Kevin Lowe's job is on the line, he needs to add some impact players, and the list of talent he can send away is either too dear or not close to being good enough.
If Kevin Lowe calls Ottawa and asks for Wade Redden, can he acquire him for just draft picks? Could he get away with sending a secondary defender (read: not Jason Smith or Steve Staios) along with a pick the other way?
If we make a list of players Edmonton should hold onto moving forward (my list would be Roloson and Smith until the deadline, Staios, Smid, Horcoff, Torres, Hemsky), is it possible to acquire an impact player with any combination of players/picks?
According to the Edmonton Journal today, Kevin Lowe has "money earmarked for free agents and three first round draft picks to leverage on the trade market" but I honestly don't think that gets it done if he's hunting for Redden or Richards via trade and getting someone like Gomez through UFA seems unlikely.
"We want to get this team back to being a team that's expected to make the playoffs. We think we can do that this summer," says Lowe in the same Journal article.
However, if the other 29 GMs paid any attention to Lowe's moves last year the idea of dealing a true impact player for picks and unproven NHLers seems to be a one way ticket down the elevator shaft. With GM jobs turning over more quickly these days, who in their right mind is going to send away Redden without requiring Smith in return as part of the package? Or Horcoff in a Richards deal?
No sir. I suspect this summer is going to be a "changing the deck chairs" summer, with Redden and Hartnell types coming in and Smith and Torres types heading out.
The scary thing is that Kevin Lowe may end up sending some key components (from the young group that includes Hemsky, Torres, Stoll and we may eventually add Smid) away in an attempt to save his job.
As bad as this season was, at least it was just one bullet. The real disaster may lie straight ahead.
Great post, and my only qualm would be:
ReplyDelete(my list would be Roloson and Smith until the deadline, Staios, Smid, Horcoff, Torres, Hemsky),
I think the only change I'd make there is I'd switch Smid with Stoll.
Torres WILL out-perform his contract, and is absolutely necessary to keep. I think Smid is expendable depending on who and what we're hunting. If we're bring in Zybnek Michalek, Joni Pitkanen, Duncan Keith... or even a guy like Visnvosky (assuming he signs an extension), is anyone really going to bemoan losing Smid in that deal?
Backstrom signs for $6,200,000 / 2 years in Minny. They just got an upgrade on Fernandez (Who you have to imagine is heading to somewhere like Phoenix for something, while Harding becomes the backup) for less dollars while adding assets.
Damnit.
Mr. Lowetide,
ReplyDeleteThis will certainly be off topic.
I have read nearly every post on this site for about a year now only to post a couple of times anonymously (mostly out of respect and maybe intimidation) and find that your knowledge, insight, and "moodyness" (as guaged by your regular posters) is inspiring and entertaining and everything that I love about this game.
I am officially opening the door of opinion in hopes that I will learn and debate and develop a freedom of thought that you have inspired throughout the time I have discovered this Blog.
I hope that you and your collegues will "rook" me appropriately and haze me and do whatever it takes to make me feel a part of the team.
I am tired of watching from the sidelines.
You and your posters remind me so much of my Dad. And when I was 13 my Dad coached the team and said, "Pick up the bat and step up to the plate, if you stand there and watch the pitches go by they won't accept you. But if you swing at the good pitches you'll likely hit one and probably reach first. And if you swing and you strike out, they'll say, "At least he swung".
I am tired of watching them go by.
I gonna swing now.
My Dad would be proud.
Three things you're missing from your "no trade" list:
ReplyDeleteStoll
Moreau
Pisani
At least one of these guys should be there.
For me though, the only untouchable should be Ales Hemsky. Anyone else should be available for the right price.
And yes, I think Lowe can and will make a couple of quantity-for-quality deals, supplemented by a couple of smart mid-tier UFA signings.
Richards and Pitkanen via trade, Hartnell and Sutton via UFA. That's what I want.
PS: Lowetide, if you haven't already, pick up a copy of the book "When the Lights Went Out" by Gare Joyce. Great read so far.
ReplyDeletepdo: I think we have to wait and see about Stoll's health. If he's fine, then he certainly belongs on the list. I've got Smid on my list but he doesn't really belong, likely won't for at least one more summer.
ReplyDeleteG99: Welcome. Don't worry about anyone ripping you, it'll happen. :-)
My Dad is the biggest reason I'm a sports fan and I still see the game pretty much as he (and Howie Meeker) taught me. One of the great things about sports is that the older generation can indeed pass along information to the new group even in the era of video.
I think Lowe will do at least a pretty good job this Summer. I do not think he will get too silly. I am hoping with some of the left over money he grabs a Mike Johnson type to round things out.
ReplyDeleteMy feeling with MacT's hand more in things apparently these days that we will see a little of both. I think getting a Tarnstrom for reasonable money is a pretty good move for experience and for our PP. Hope that works out.
I think you nailed it LT... the temptation may be to save his ass quickly and try to force a blockbuster.
ReplyDeleteI think I might choose a more modest approach, picking up a few younger FA's this year, a small trade or two and waiting on the trade deadline '08 to see where we are...
The thought of KLowe successfully pulling off another blockbuster is exciting and fun to speculate on... unlikely, yes, but KLowe has proven he does have the stuff to pull the trigger if the deals there (and sometimes when it's not).
Love'm or hate'm, he has proven to be a man of action... the next two weeks will be interesting.
G99 - The louder and more aggressive comments tend to be less informed... some form of over-compensation I would suspect.
(Yeah that's right)
BEGIN LOUD, AGRESSIVE COMMENTS:
ReplyDeleteI think this team only has 3 untouchables--Hemsky, Lupul and Smid. And Pronger has nothing to do with keeping those latter two.
Also (I've already donned my flame-retardant gear, so go nuts), I predict that those three, if kept, will be our leadership core one day.
END LOUD, AGRESSIVE COMMENTS
:)
You're being too negative LT - Redden can be had for cap space and a young cheap roster player and/or picks. OTT needs the cap space badly or else they are going nowhere (trade Torres, Grebeshkov, #15). Ditch Lupul and #30 for a dman (Jackman?) and add Tarnstrom, Sykora, Johnson and Hartnell (no mission impossible types in there) in UFA and we have righted the ship while still keep the door open for an elite late season sniper
ReplyDeleteHartnell Horcoff Hemsky
Sykora Stoll Pisani
Moreau MAP Johnson
Nilsson/Brodziak Reasoner Stortini/Thoresen
Redden Smith
Jackman Staios
Smid Gilbert Greene
Now that is a lot of moves - but our mgmt team seem to do OK when they have time to think and last summer they had none and it showed. We will pick up a serious player or two at the draft (at least one dman) and we will do OK with the 2nd tier (Hartnell and Sykora) and 3rd tier UFA (Tarnstrom and Johnson).
I dont expect al of this to come true - but point is - none of it is ridiculous and we have both a ton of assets and a lot of time to sort this mess out. Our boys may not be the sharpest sticks in the woodpile - but they seem to do OK when they have enough time to think and plan.
Stuff just isn't adding up to me. The defense in particular. We've all heard the rumors of Lowe adding a top pairing dman. Ok great. Now they're in talks with Dick Tarnstrom? He's not first pairing. So... we're adding to the bottom four mix - a mix that's already full. And what about Hejda? We're getting close to the deadline - and he did a very good job this season - AND he's free as a UFA. But again another bottom 4. But that's where asset management comes into play.
ReplyDeleteSign Hejda. Sign Hartnell. You've essentially two assets. Trade away players already playing those roles.
i.e. - trade Smid plus Torres for Pitkanen.
Pitkanen - Smith
Staios - Greene
Hejda - Tarnstrom
Gilbert
I have but one point, LT, but I think its a good one. Money.
ReplyDeletePlenty of teams, I think, are going to be moving contracts because they are in financial difficulty or they need to clear space to get under the cap or they need to clear contracts in order to go after their own targets in the UFA market.
If Buffalo has to move someone to make room to sign Drury they aren't looking for Horcoff back - they want a pick and Petry (US Jr player of the year, is that right?).
Well the season is over now and Lowe might as well start making his moves now. A good start would be signing Hejda and locking up Torres to a multiyear deal.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see how this rolls out.
If life seems jolly rotten
ReplyDeleteThere's something you've forgotten
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.
When you're feeling in the dumps
Don't be silly chumps
Just purse your lips and whistle - that's the thing.
And...always look on the bright side of life...
Always look on the light side of life...
It ain't great
But it aint that bad
A month or two ago, the Oil's mouthpiece, Mr Matheson told us the player budget would be $43mm for this year
It then went to $45
Now, they say "near the Cap"
If they'll spend near the cap [wisely] - there are guy available
Re-sign Hejda
Replace Smyth [with Smyth?]
Replace Lupul with Johnson
Add another top-6 forward
And a Top-4 Dman
And purse your lips and whistle
Mr:
ReplyDeleteI'll believe the cap thing when I see it. Don't mean to be cynical, but imo it would be very easy for Lowe to go shopping and not find anyone available even for big money.
He may find himself somewhere around mid-August with several million dollars and very little to spend it on. Then he'll have to decide if picking up someone like Aucoin is worth it or whether he'll wait for something to shake from the trees as he waited for last fall (to his peril, and I think his ultimate demise).
Lowe looked like Sam Pollock a year ago, but after last summer and then the delay in getting veteran blueline help I think he misread the market so badly that we can reasonably expect a combination of good and bad this summer.
Your list is reasonable btw.
Who is the Oilers core? (All IMHO)
ReplyDeleteHemsky, Horcoff, Pisani, Moreau, Smith, Staios, Roloson.
(I think Smith gets extended later this summer for something like 3 additional years at $4 million per season...4.5, 4.0, 3.5...like Staios and Moreau, getting a balloon "bonus" payment upfront.)
Stoll and Smid are close to being in the core above.
If we sign Hartnell, Torres is expendible. Torres has trade value to the Eastern (Wussy) Conference who will want to upgrade on the toughness front.
Lupul will probably get one more chance...but MacT won't use kid gloves this year.
My UFA defenseman of last resort is Sydor...but I think a Redden for Torres + Gilbert deal may be in the works. (Chorney and Petry make Gilbert expendible, and the Senators need a defenseman close to being NHL ready.)
So ideally, Hartnell and Redden get added to the core group above.
Gret99 welcome! Although I'm not the host here, but welcome anyway.
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping that the big move they make is more substance than style and is surrounded by smart deals.
Tarnstrom is a smart deal -- allows an acquisition of a very good top pair d-man that can be top 2 ES, and top 4 PK, without also having to be top 2 PP). Smart because I don't know if there is a real top all situations minute eater out there (showerhead's post on IOF noted that AMarkov was the cream of the crop) and that Timonen, Rafalski don't really apply in that group.
Keep 8 D on roster, dress 7 every night, that 12th forward won't miss the <7 minutes a night MacT was going to give them anyway. Wouldn't hurt to double-shift Pisani or Hemsky once in awhile anyway.
The general Oiler fan is likely to be WOWED by some big name who may not be as much substance as the Oilogosphere prefers. I just hope they don't do a deal that is too long term on this type of guy.
Gret99 welcome, I couldn't agree with your comments about LT's blog more, this is just the best sight on the internet to read about, think about, and tal hockey.
ReplyDeleteMaybe one day when I own my media empire (like that will happen!) I'll collect all of LT's post and put them into a published volume of the best writings about the oilers throughout their history. Always a dream of mine to create something like that, and I can think of no better candidate then LT's funny, smart, witty, and humble postings.
Okay, so enough of the dreaming. On to hockey talk. LT, I think you raise two great questions, which are:
1) Who are the oilers' core players?
2) Can Lowe acquire enough quality assets to improve the team without giving up too many in order to acquire said quality assets. Put differently, if you lose horcoff and get richards, or smith but get redden, how many steps forward have you actually taken?
I think two things need to be said about the first question. First, when I think of the "core" of a team I think of the guys who a team would simply not be able to win with if they were taken off of it. All other guys around them can be slotted in and out, and there will be some residual loss or gain, but the "core" guys are simply the ones who- thanks to the make up of the team- are absolutley untouchable if the team is going to win now and in the future. I would have said that the oilers only had three core players at the start of last off-season: Smyth, Roloson, and Pronger. The lineup began and ended with those three guys.
Given that we've lost 2/3rd's of our core, I would actually answer that the oilers now have no real "core" to speak. Or, more specifically, we are still searching for it. Hemsky might eventually become part of it- if he can dominate every night. Stoll looked like a champion before he went down, and if Horcoff could only get the scoring monkey off his back he might be raised to that elite level. But the problem with Lowe's moves this season is that he's taken the core of his team and got only question marks in return (picks and prospects).
That's why this offseason is so important for Lowe, and why he has to do something. It's not just that the oilers need quality players to start winning again. It's that we are in need of players to build a lineup around. Which is to say, "elite" players. And as you've eloquently stated LT, those are very, very hard to come by.
As for the 2nd question- can we get enough without giving up too much- I think we may be underestimating free agency as a possible solution. Lowe has something like 20 million dollars to spend (if his quotes are accurate, and I've never though Lowe to be a liar. Laforge, maybe, but Mac-t and Lowe have generally always been on the level).
I don't believe for a second edmonton's winters and civic lifestyle have anything to do with free agent's not coming here. If bobby holik (a true "playoff warrior" if there ever was one) enjoys playing hockey in a southern city that is crime infested, expensive, hot, and where nobody knows a puck from a roll of duck tape, or if Paul Karyia enjoys that Nashville excitement as he prods along on bad ice, or if countless players can speak glowingly of Denver Colorado (a cold, boring city), then edmonton should have no problem attracting free agents.
There are countless players who have signed in questionable markets (Foote in CMB, Jovanovski in PHO, Hossa in ATL, to name but a few). The common denominator to all these signings? Money money money. As a fellow HFboards poster put it (I believe RiversQ or Matty, although I could be wrong): the free-agent market is for serious bidders. It's not for getting talent on the cheap. If K.Lowe finally wants to open the wallet, and it does seem like he is truly ready, then I have no doubt that we can land a big fish.
Will it take 7.5 mililion dollars to land briere, gomez, or drury? Yes. Karyia at 5 million is more palatable, imo. But make no mistake- edmonton's "failure" to attract talent speaks to its cheapness, not to any civic problems about edmonton.
So the answer to your original post LT is this: the trade route promises to be too expensive to bring in what we need without losing what talent we have left. What do the oilers have in oodless these days? Money. Lowe should learn how to use it.
Sign Kariya, Hartnell, Sykora, Hamrlik, and Tarnstrom, trade for Redden and were back in this thing.
Will K lowe do it? If he doesn't, it wont be for a lack of ressources. It will be for an unwillingess to overpay.
//There are countless players who have signed in questionable markets (Foote in CMB, Jovanovski in PHO, Hossa in ATL, to name but a few).//
ReplyDeleteHossa didn't sign in Atlanta. He thought he was signing it Ottawa. Muckler didn't tell him it was going to be a sign and trade.
Hossa, who as 1-year left at 7 million (6 million cap hit) would be a really good pickup. Wonder if Atlanta would take Lupul for him?
Hossa, Hartnell, and Hannan (with Hejda, Tarnstrom, and Grebeshkov).
//Hossa didn't sign in Atlanta. He thought he was signing it Ottawa. Muckler didn't tell him it was going to be a sign and trade.//
ReplyDeleteTrue, but when Hossa got there he didn't make a big stink about being in Atlanta, which he could have. He dutifully accepted playing there. If the city was such an annoynace to him he could have pulled a pronger, but he didn't, and I haven't read anywhere that he's been unhappy in ATL.
Point is, the entire "no one wants to play in EDM" stuff will stop the second K lowe gives a star player an offer he can't refuse. Money speaks louder than anything in this world. It's all about the numbers for these free agents. Just ask Ryan Smyth.
I think Hossa is a real possibility. He's playing for a franchise that may be in financial trouble and also lacks depth in terms of NHL players and prospects.
ReplyDeleteHe's a terrific player.
I would hope they would agree to an extension and then make the trade. Otherwise, don't bother.
And seeing as he signed longterm with Ottawa I don't think the "Edmonton" issue, which I think is overblown anyhow (and used conveniently whenever the question as to why UFAs don't come to the Oilers, would not be one.
LT I find your negativity dissapointing. Only because even at the worst times you've been pretty positive. Even when Pronger and Smyth got dealt you seemed fairly optimistic about the future for the guys over the next couple of years. I hope your current instincts are off.
ReplyDeleteAs for Redden, if Ottawa really is going to move him I think it'd be huge for us. He had injury issues this year and in the playoffs. Regardless he's a monster on the PP with a terrific, accurate shot. Good puck mover with a wicked first pass that no one on our team had. Strong positional D who makes some mistakes and would look great with Smith.
Of course if you have to trade Smith to get him it doesn't look as good.
TO me a great package to offer Ottawa to get Redden would involve Torres and Greene. Ottawa looked too weak against Anaheim. Well if that's the case, add a crash and bang type like Torres and a monster young physical D like Greene who had made the finals before. He might make a good partner for Corvo as he's played with a D like him (MAB) before.
IF we can lock up Redden and Smith and sign Hartnell to fill in that spot for Torres... that's a big upgrade.
Redden Smith (long term deals for both)
Tarnstrom Staios (puck mover and solid all around guy together)
Smid Hejda
(Greb/Gilbert in the press box)
You still need a top flight winger. My top choice is still Smyth to be honest.
But I won't pretend to know what'll happen or what should. I know he'll try to do something and I hope he can. His job is on the line and if not at least his job, his legacy (should he retire after this year) would be.
Shawn: I don't see a scenario in which Lowe can turn this team around and keep his job. I don't really see that as a negative.
ReplyDeleteLowe got this team to the finals and there's something to be said for it. He followed it with a series of decisions that set back the organization and he will pay a price.
This time next summer we'll be talking about a new GM and another top 5 pick imo.
Let the good times roll.
I didn't like what I read from SOM today, basically he said that there was no point having both Torres and Hartnell on the team. So I guess that means Torres is bait and Lupul gets another free pass.
ReplyDelete