This is the second of two posts about the Smyth money and how the Oilers may spend it. A reasonable conclusion for fans is that the 27M will be spent on a forward who can compliment Hemsky on the top line, and it's also logical that they deal for this player.
Here's the West.
Alex Tanguay, Calgary: He'll be 28 in November and has 2 years left at $5.375M. An inspired pickup if they could get him, and with the possibility of Ryan Smyth signing in Calgary (which would surely signal the end of Kevin Lowe's Edmonton career) Tanguay may indeed shake loose this summer. He's a quality player, reasonably healthy and has scored more than 20 goals four years running.
Patrick Marleau, San Jose: Turns 28 in September, he's got one more year at $4.5M. The way San Jose exited the playoffs this spring exposed Marleau's inconsistency. Still, he's a solid offensive player and can score goals. Has score 28,28,34 and 32 goals in the last 4 NHL seasons. The package required to get him is probably beyond Edmonton's grasp at this time.
Sergei Fedorov, Columbus: He'll turn 38 in December and has one more year at $6.08M. The big offensive seasons are gone and he's certainly not a long term solution but he might be able to help the top line for a season. Fedorov's one year contract works well in that with the Oilers having almost no chance at the playoffs in 07-08 he can come in and serve as a stopgap until Pouliot and Cogliano can take on greater roles behind Horcoff and Stoll. Plus he shouldn't cost much in terms of assets (which is key when we're talking about how to spend the Smyth $$$).
Next up: How to spend the Pronger money.
Tanguay: forget it. Calgary isn't in the Smyth sweepstakes, and even if they were, they wouldn't move Tanguay in their own conference (only a total idiot as GM would strengthen a conference rival without a severe overpay).
ReplyDeleteMarleau's a maybe for me. Depends on the price-tag. Although, his availability is a possibility...sounds like the Sharks want a bit more "clutch" and are gearing up for a run at Drury.
No to Fedorov.
Fedorov screams "way the fuck more expensive Adam Oats." Hell no, we won't go.
ReplyDeleteNow, by the Pronger money, I assume you mean the $3M-ish that isn't being directly spent on Lupul and Smid, right?
Marleau is a big no to me. Just zero interest for a guy who never had more than 60 points in his career until he got to play behind Joe Thornton.
ReplyDeleteThe Pronger money?
How about we go after Visnovsky who apparently wants out of LA since Crawford is an asshole and then sign him to a fat extension? =D
A big no thanks to Fedorov, besides the fact we would give Columbus some nice Cap space to improve their team in the off season. I honestly cannot think of one good spin that would make this a solid move.
ReplyDeleteI am probably too much of an optimist but I do not see it as so impossible we could squeak into the last playoff spot. I seem to remember that monstrosity we watched last season was in 1st in the division around Christmas.
I am not sure Marleau will move, I have a feeling the coach may go instead. But I would not mind getting Marleau depending on price and whether a contract extension could be involved.
Can Calgary afford to throw the type of $$$ Smyth is looking for with all the impending UFA's they need to lock up before next year?
ReplyDeleteSmytty would really have to have a hate on for Lowe to sign in Cowtown before Col, Pitts, or Anaheim.
If Yashin's contact nearly killed him, what is $6+ Million going to do to Smytty's career after years of outperforming his "hometown" contract? One team's fans are going to have the crosshairs focussed on him every night. Unless he signs with Phoenix, nobody watches hockey there.
Fedorov's one year contract works well in that with the Oilers having almost no chance at the playoffs in 07-08 he can come in and serve as a stopgap until Pouliot and Cogliano can take on greater roles behind Horcoff and Stoll. Plus he shouldn't cost much in terms of assets (which is key when we're talking about how to spend the Smyth $$$).
ReplyDeleteIs it too early to call Sergei Fedorov "the Russian Adam Oates"?
Fedorov screams "way the fuck more expensive Adam Oats." Hell no, we won't go.
Apparently not!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/hockey/nhl/teams/oilers/
ReplyDeleteLT: scroll down to "Other Local Oilers News"
You've hit the big time.
mc79Hockey,
ReplyDeleteThat rocks. Thanks for pointing it out.
I predict all the fame will go to LT's head and in no time he will have his own "anonymous" blogging site where he drops lots of big names sprinkled with plenty of trade dung and disavows himself of all us little people...
congrats!
I can't see how Tanguay is worth 5+ and Smyth isn't. Who do you want in a playoff run?
ReplyDeleteNo, this isn't a sign Smytty rant...
Just don't give the same amount of money to a player without character or comittment to the team. Federov? YASHIN? Lindros??WHAT? Shit no.
Richards on the other hand...
Wishful thinking but I don't see why TB needs to or should trade him. Yes, the Big 4 command huge dollars, but ALL PRODUCE at a high level night in/night out. Any chance the Oilers could land him would be a organization changing experience. Pronger and Lupul would be yesterday's news and Lowe could be strutin' Jasper Ave once again... if only these rumours were true. and they are not.
I don't like any of the options (East or West). Sutton and Stuart or Redden are the priorities to me: shore up the D. The forwards will suddenly be a lot better. They will not have to spend most of their time in their own end chipping the puck out. They could actually get thru the neutral zone with some speed and get an aggressive forcheck going.
ReplyDeleteBy Christmas, the papers will be talking about the surprising Oilers.
With regards to Richards, my thinking is more along the lines of "These guys just don't come along every day" rather than, "Yeah, but he's making $7.8MM per freakin' year!!!"
ReplyDeleteThat said, I'd be just fine with a Richards for Horcoff straight up deal (assuming Stoll is healthy) OR a Richards for Stoll + (one of Schremp, Nilsson, etc...)
The Oilers are not going to be perenial contenders in one year. By the time they actually might have a quality team a group of centers consisting of Richards, Horcoff/Stoll, MAP, Cogliano will look pretty good. That's probably in the final two years of Richards contract.
I'm fine with a signing of Hartnell for $3.0MM per year but would be just as happy to sign Mike Johnson for lesser dollars.
Getting Vishnovsky out of L.A. for Lupul and Greene seems like a hell of a way to go as they may be able to convince the L.A. brass that Joff needs a lot of sunshine to reach max potential.
Adding Vishnovsky frees up Smith to go for Redden but I would not send Smith to Ottawa without Vishnovsky here first.
Of course both of these guys are on one year deals so extensions for both are a must.
The line-up then looks like;
Hartnell - Richards - Hemsky
Torres - Horcoff/Stoll - Pisani
Moreau - Poulliot - Thoreson
Reasoner, Peterson, Nillson, JFJ, Stortini
Redden - Vishnovsky
Hejda - Staios
Smid, Grebeshkov, Gilbert
Adding Tarnstrom is just fine too and may free up one of the younger defenders to be packaged with Smith to Ottawa.
Thoughts???
T
The above roster would have a cap hit of about $49.0MM per year with an actual cost being slightly less.
ReplyDeleteAny extensions to players are obviously going to have to come at the expense of something. Perhaps Redden would be interested in a slight home town discount but it would be very slight and completely eaten up by any extension to Visnovsky.
Either way, I can't see the EIG spending that kind of coin. Perhaps the draft will send them someone magical who can be inserted on the first line instead of signing Hartnell for $3.0MM per. That would save about $2.0MM per year.
T
FWIW, my list of forwards cost $28.569MM with Torres at $2.0MM and Hartnell at $3.0MM, my defensman cost $15.872MM with Hejda signed at $2.0MM and I have JDD pencilled in as the back-up at just under $1.0MM.
I have like these last couple of posts LT.
ReplyDeletePersonally I think you're identifying the right types of players, if not the exact right ones, and your specific choices are justified.
I think the Oilers should be looking at two players types: the homerun and the expiring contract.
Richards, Hossa and possibly even Marleau qualify as homeruns because they're impact players and they should be under contract for a long time. (Dealing for Hossa or Marleau without an extension signed would be preposterous)
Samsonov, Satan and Fedorov all count as expiring contracts. They all have just one year left and they can be acquired essentially just for the cap room. Heck, in Fedorov's case you could probably ask CBJ to sweeten the pot because his price tag is so high. I kind of like the Fedorov one personally. He can play just about anywhere and he could play as a pointman on the PP. It's a big gamble, but he's a better one than Oates.
Obviously if the Oilers get a homerun, then they can have their cake and eat it too. If they can't make that happen and they're committed to spending money to compete this year, then the best way to keep all your young players for the rebuild is trade for players with low value.
I would just sign Yashin to a one year $2 million contract if he's willing... instead of Fedorov's $6.
ReplyDeleteI highly doubt that Yashin will sign for so little. If you're insanely optimistic, he might sign for $3.5-4MM barring extraneous issues (ie. taking less to stay East and keep Carol happy.) I also doubt that he signs for less than 2-3 years.
ReplyDeleteWhen comparing these two, it boils down to how far has Fedorov's game truly gone? I readily admit I'm not qualified to answer that. I do know he's far more versatile than Yashin in that you can play him at all five skating positions if necessary. He can play heavy minutes on the PP and on the PK. Lastly, he has normally played against tough opposition at ES. Yashin has never proven capable of doing any of those things.
Yashin in Edmonton would be the worst idea ever. Oiler fans hate anybody who isn't a blue-collar grinder like "everybody popular on this team who isn't Ales Hemsky" or touched by te hockey gods like "Ales Hemsky".
ReplyDeleteAlexei Yashin is a pretty fair player who has been known to dog it in his own zone. Joffrey Lupul would be the only guy glad to see Yashin arrive: Marc-Andre Bergeron proved that Oiler fans are at their best with one guy to rag on.
Lord Bob said...
ReplyDeleteYashin in Edmonton would be the worst idea ever. Oiler fans hate anybody who isn't a blue-collar grinder like "everybody popular on this team who isn't Ales Hemsky" or touched by te hockey gods like "Ales Hemsky".
That's funny because I see Oiler fans the complete opposite way.
They rag on Horcoff mercilessly. They didn't like Dvorak. They turned on Smyth in a New York minute. Same with Marchant.
Most Oiler fans only give Pisani a free pass because he's a hometown kid who scored some playoff goals. I have to bite my lip everytime Pisani or Horcoff comes up with my friends in Edmonton because they have some pretty low opinions. They trashed them before this year and before the SCF run too.
Meanwhile, Lupul and Sykora dodge a ton of criticism and Hemsky has always been a fan favourite.
Personally, I think Oiler fans like the sizzle way more than the steak. It's an '80s thing they just can't get over.
I forgot Nedved too.
ReplyDeleteThat fucker was one of the more useless Oilers of all time.
Both times he was here.
That's funny because I see Oiler fans the complete opposite way.
ReplyDeleteThey rag on Horcoff mercilessly. They didn't like Dvorak. They turned on Smyth in a New York minute. Same with Marchant.
Smyth and Marchant are different: the fans turned on them after they left, not because they were crummy players. And I even half-question the degree of that turning: I bet Smyth is going to get some hefty cheers when he first shows up in Ranger silks.
I haven't really noticed any Horcoff-beating aside from the lunatic fringe (to be fair, I live in Victoria eight months of the year), but Dvorak definately got beat on. However, I'd argue that Dvorak was a hard-working grinder who everybody expected to be a soft thirty-goal scorer, and the cheap seats brigade went into some sort of knee-jerk hatred mode. At any rate, the rule was certainly not meant to be universal, and I'd argue that even Pisani was popular long before his great playoff. The albatross around his neck now is just his gigantic contract.
I guess this is what it's come back to.
ReplyDeleteThere was pure outrage over 94's departure and for me it was because he was a blood and guts guy who could score and outscore, but that move to me seemed to be a nod to the good old days when we couldn't afford guys.
Now we're back to trying to spend "his money" and in terms of value, coming out no worse than even.
And that's simply not gonna happen