This is Scott Hartnell, a player the Oilers are probably going to pursue this summer. According to a recent Bob McKenzie item on tsn, "between now and the July 1 free agency period, Lowe would love to add a pair of top-six forwards and a quality defenceman." Let's make a crazy list up:
LW Scott Hartnell (UFA) 3.2MIL
D Kimmo Timonen (UFA) 3.8MIL
C Brad Richards (trade) 7.8MIL
Now you can question my dollar amounts and I readily admit that mine isn't even an educated guess; however, even with those numbers (and baby, I don't think they're too high) the Oilers depth chart and salary expectations go through the roof:
Goal: Roloson (3.667M), Markkanen (900k-EST)
D: Timonen (3.8), Staios(2.85M), Smith (1.976M), Hejda (1M-EST), Smid (915k), Gilbert (908k), Grebeshkov (900k-EST)
C: Richards (7.8M), Stoll(2.2M), Reasoner(950k), Pouliot (942k)
L: Hartnell (3.2M), Moreau(2M), Torres(1.9M-EST), Thoresen(570k)
R: Hemsky(4.1), Pisani(2.5M), Lupul(2.312M), Stortini (534k)
Extras: Jacques (668k), Tobias Petersen(450k)
This assumes that TBay asks for Shawn Horcoff, Matt Greene and picks/prospects. I'm not really interested in debating the relative value difference of Horcoff/Richards except to say I wouldn't be happy with the deal.
Okay, Oilers add Richards, Timonen and Hartnell, send out Horcoff and Greene and then I've estimated some rfa numbers.
TOTAL PLAYERS: 23
TOTAL COST: $47,042,000
Let's compare that number with a quote in the Edmonton Journal this weekend credited to Oilers vice-president Allan Watt: "We've set our budget for the year, and we're already within seven or 10 per cent of the salary cap." Recent estimates on the cap have it in and around $51M in U.S. funds. So we can assume that the Oilers will spend between $45,900,000 and $47,430,000 this fall.
I say we revisit this mid-July and see the number at that time. My gut feeling is that the Oilers start the season at 43M and flush salary by Christmas if things look bad.
Bottom line: Richards+Hartnell+Timonen+Grebeshkov minus Horcoff+Smyth+Bergeron+Greene isn't going to get this team past Calgary, Vancouver, Minnesota and Colorado.
LT
ReplyDeleteSo what in your mind does get us past Colorado, Vancouver, Calgary, etc? Not meant to be a rhetorical question.
You have added a #1 D man (not the best but I would certainly take him) without losing the "experience" everyone wants to have at D. You have also added an "elite" center (who i agree is not an upgrade on Horc at that money) and you have added a good LW without losing Torres.
If that doesn't at least get the oilers back to respectability/playoffs what are you advocating? Blowing the whole thing up? Personaly I don't see the oilers doing any better than you have outlined here whether via trade of free agency or both.
My own prediction is Hjeda signed. Some combination of Smith and Torres and (?) heading to Philly for Pitkanen. Hartnell signed as FA as well as Sykora or Nagy. Will it win the Oilers the cup. No but I think they would be competitive for a playoff spot and have their young nucleus intact.
nelson: I'd sign Ryan Smyth with the Richards money, sign Dvorak and trade a few prospects for another NHL player up front (like Johnson in MTL who's a UFA I believe).
ReplyDeleteThey have WAY too many prospects, they need to back the roster up a bunch.
On the blueline, I know everyone wants a puck mover and me too, but experienced hands are more important.
So, sign Hejda, trade for Pitkanen and run Pitkanen-Staios, Hejda-Smith, Smid-Grebeshkov and whomever else (maybe Greene?).
Basically, I'm not sure getting big names is as important to the immediate future of the Oilers as getting actual people who can play in the NHL.
Right now, the Oilers are a developmental team for the rest of the NHL. The season Smid just had may pay off 5 years from now when the kid has been traded/lost to ufa, but lordy the fans are paying a price.
You can't beat experience. Too many at-bats to the kids is what we're staring in the face.
Lowe wants three new players? I want 8:
Roloson-Markkanen
Pitkanen (#1-new)-Staios
Hejda (#2-new-Smith
Smid-Grebeshkov-Greene
Horcoff-Stoll-Johnson(#3-new)-Pouliot
Smyth(#4-new)-Moreau-Torres-Thoresen
Hemsky-Pisani-Dvorak(new #5)-Lupul
Extras: Dowd (#6-new), Nilsson
Dowd may have retired, but you get the idea. Oilers start with a bunch of rookies and they're dead.
Dead.
LT,
ReplyDeleteI am not far off your wavelength
Forwards
Horc is very underrated and they should focus $$ on getting one elite LW or a 2nd option of 2 very good ones ( i still see Torres being an unfortunate casualty of bringing in a #1 D)
the dvoraks, johnson's, etc. are relatively easy to acquire and well worth the price. dean mcammond (sp?) is a good example. i thought he was one of ottawa's best players last night until the cheap shot...
D:
call me an optomist but i think grebs is going to be a very pleasant surprise this year as hjeda was last year. i also don't think smid will take 5 years to develop. i have always been a big gator fan and continue to be but if he is the price for a true #1 D then so be it. IMHO; Pitkanen (?), Staois, Hjeda, Grebs, Greene and Smid would be at the very least "league average" next year and be a D that could help a team challenge for a Cup in 3 - 5 years.
With every passing day it looks less and less likely that Lowe is going to be able to get out from under his mistakes in just one offseason.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like it might be time to take a year off and wait to see if there's anything there worth throwing money at. If you do that you have to wonder why you'd bother to keep some of these guys around. Horcoff, Pisani and Smith aren't much use to a team like that. I realize that experience is important but Reasoner, Moreau and Staios will still be around along with some younger yet experienced types. Maybe this summer should be a full-on rebuild?
By taking a year off, I mean waiting to see if Hemsky, Torres, and Stoll can take another step forward. And waiting to see if Nilsson, Pouliot or Schremp can be true impact players along with seeing what O'Marra and Cogliano can do in the AHL. There are a lot of unknowns here and I haven't even gotten to all the young dmen yet, of which there is a lengthy list.
ReplyDeleteWell, I don't think it's impossible to fix this mess - but it would certainly take some ingenuity from Kevin Lowe and a large whack of money.
ReplyDeleteSign Kariya, Johnson and Miller, trade Lupul+ (+ hopefully being one [even two] of our young D, picks and one of our C prospects named Pouliot) for any of Redden, Visnovsky (apparently wants out - hates Crawford) or Pitkanen and run with it.
Kariya - Horcoff - Hemsky
Torres - Stoll - Pisani
Moreau - Pouliot - Johnson
Nilsson - Reasoner - Stortini
Visnovsky - Smith
Miller - Staios
Grebeshkov - Smid
Roloson
I think that'd be a roster that could compete, the dollars would certainly work. The biggest problem is Kariya is a stop-gap solution for a year or two, and not a real solution on his own.
51M bodes bad for the Oilers. Not only are the EIG stubbornly unable to spend with their NW peers, Calgarys roster may have recieved a stay of execution. Colorado are positioned to build a contender, Vancouver routinely spend to win. The rest of the NW just had a sigh of relief while the Oilers owners just had to talk themselves off of a bridge. I bet Pat Laforge hit the pepto bismol aisle in force.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Smyth signs on day 1 at 5.5 million and pleads ignorance to leaving 5 or 6 million on the table? heh.
Lordy.
Brooks had the cap at 52 in today's NY Post. Bad news for the Oil, of course. Van, Cgy and Col are gonna send and some players don't look at those cities as dumps like they apparently do with Edm. Then again maybe it's just about spending money, once again that doesn't bode well for us.
ReplyDeleteI dunno, my guess is that we only "improve" if other teams lose players via movement or injury. We had a couple of impact players but we dealt them for guys who are decidely non-impact so where will the difference makers come from?
The picture, she is bleak
there's no way you could get Timmonen for 3.8M. He'd sign for 5 maybe.
ReplyDeleteIt seems as though everyone is in agreement that the Oilers aren't going to spend in the line with the rest of the league (once again). Too bad for Oiler nation, but it seems optmistic to even expect a 45m cap this season.
ReplyDeleteand maybe it is the right move. Sign Hartnell to a long term deal, move a few veterans throughout the season as timing dictates (Smith? Roloson?)and we inch closer to a high end lottery pick.
With so many draft picks - on top of the current depth in the system, it'll take the next two or three years to figure out who's gonna stay and who isn't. It seems dangerous to start packaging players and picks away without knowing what you have... Cogliano or Schremp? Petry or Gilbert? Nilsson or Couture?
Maybe you move Torres in a trade for Pitkanen, sign Hartnell and see what happens with a good young team fighting for icetime. Trading Smith and/or Roloson at the deadline will bring 1st rd interest in '08.
Maybe in a couple years the Oilers owners will find a way to play with the big boys.
When will people wake up? The Oilers ARE big boys now with respect to revenue and if we are not spending to the cap then EIG is simply filling their pockets. Where does everyone think this revenue growth is coming from? Nashville and Florida? - it's coming from Canada largely through the improved exchange situation and the Oilers are MAJOR benefactors. Wake up suckers and quit thinking like country bumpkins - the Oilers are a friggin gold mine under the new CBA - don't let EIG sell you a lump of coal while crying (lying) poor.
ReplyDeleteI expect an elite LW and an elite dman in the liineup come mid-January and there are ZERO money reasons to stop this. Sure I also sign Hartnell to a longterm $3 million deal - there is a chance he could outperform and he adds toughness. Delete Lupul, Torres and Greene in trade to Philly and there is a ton of space available for this team to spend $47 million.
Kariya ($5.0) Horcoff ($3.6) Hemsky ($3.6)
Hartnell ($3.0) MAP ($1.0) Pisani ($2.5)
Moreau ($2.7) Stoll ($2.2) Johnson ($1.5)
Nilsen ($1.0) Reasoner ($1.0) Thoresen ($.6)
Petersen ($.5) Stortini ($.5)
Pitkanen ($3.5) Staios ($3.5)
Smith ($1.9) Hejda ($1.75)
Smid ($1.0) Grebs ($1.0) Gilbert ($.5)
Roloson ($4.0)
Cheap BU ($.5)
Total - about $47 million - and you can use that Kariya money any other productive way if you can package guys like Lupul, Torres, Greene, Schremp and all those draft picks in a productive way.
Zero reason for this team not to succeed unless EIG wants to remake this franchise along the CHI Blackhawks model
No chance Timmonen will sign for 3.8M.
ReplyDeleteEven 5M is lowball. I'd give him 6 without second thoughts.
Well, shit, now how is Edmonton going to afford an NHL team? Too bad we don't have a new arena.
ReplyDeleteThe Lupul Factor – replace Lupul with Nillson, or even Mikhnov, and that $47mm team becomes a $45.5mm team with no or little loss in performance.
ReplyDeleteDraft day in Mid June, Free agent day July 1. Does Lowe trade for Hossa or Richards on draft day, or wait and hope he signs Smyth, Kariya or Kozlov on July 2?
Richards – That $7.8 is very difficult to swallow. In a trade he’s not worth more than Horcoff straight up. In fact it should be argued the Oilers need more from Tampa to cover that $4.2 salary hit
Forget Timmonen, the Oilers will not win that bidding war. YKOIL did a nice piece on the UFA D-men a while back. The verdict – Tanabe and Hejda. Tanabe’s under the radar, had a good year, good top-4 guy, will cost about $2mm. With Smith, Staios, Hejda, and Gebs that 5 ready to go guys. Fill with two of Greene, Smid, or Gilbert.
Smyth Horcoff Hemsky
Torres Stoll Pisani
S Kozlov Pouliot Nilsson
Moreau Reasoner Thoresen
Jacques Brodziak
Smith Staios
Tanabe Hejda
Grebeshkov Gilbert
Smid
Roloson
Markkanen
With Smyth At $4.75 over 8 years [start at $6 end at $3]
Kozlov at $4mm, Tanabe $2 mm, Hejda $1.25
Cap hit is around $44.5
When that group wins the Cup, all the naysayers will be chipping in for that new Ice Palace!
Timonen would certainly be an improvement to the Oilers' blueline, but not to the extent that some are thinking. He can QB the PP decently, but he's not going to drive the results to the degree we may think. Furthermore, he's smallish, slowish, and not physical at all. Worth 6 million? Maybe if KLowe is really desperate and thinks it will save his career.
ReplyDeleteSH, I don't know if you're joking or not but as the cap continues to rise, and we all know that it will because hockey fans who pay will continue to pay, the Oilers get further and further away from self-imposed caps and get closer to becoming have-not's again, or at least in terms of spending.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's gonna take the fans to tune them out and for the EIG to sell to Katz, before this thing gets turned around. The Oilers don't have the young and cheap talent to contend on the small dollars like the Ducks have for the past two season. They need to augment the existing core with trades and FA signings, both which will cost actual money. if they don't do that we're back to missing the playoffs every second year. either the fans resign themselves to that, and thus perpertual EIG rule, or they stay away and then Katz offer starts to look better and better and eventually we might have an owner who'll spend.
if the Oilers are gonna continue to be this cheap relative to the cap, their drafting record is gonna have to be impeccable.
I don't think you can do that with picks in the high 20's, which are the ones Lowe's continues to flaunt from the Pronger 'bounty'
Thanks for your comments Asiaoil - but you are missing the point. The Oilers are NOT Big Boys - and sadly won't be until they get ownership that can afford the league their in... deep pockets that don't need to an recieve annual return on their investment in order to keep their heads above water... (the problems with 'community' ownership). right now, whether it's self-imposed or not, the Oilers are not playing with a full deck.
ReplyDeleteAs for your 'magical' 47 million dollar team - as you proposed, the team is only slightly better with little to no chance of any real success. Why waste the money - so we can pretend to compete? I would suggust its better to take the next couple of years to figure out who is Oilers worthy, keep drafting high first rounders and hopefully, in a couple/three years, all the draft picks and/or prospects will hit at the same time. Without that - they are little dogs trying to appease Oiler nation with middle of the road skill and half-serious budgets... no chance.
The Oilers are indeed Big Boys in terms of revenue and EIG is full of crap if they pretend otherwise. That they turned down an offer of $160 million from Katz shows you just how healthy this franchise is - and with the dollar nearing par they are a frigging gold mine. Anyone who suggests otherwise is misleading. If the Oilers do not have a $47 million salary this coming season they are more interested in extra profits instead of winning.....period.
ReplyDeleteOther than that - I can't see how having Kariya and Hartnell patrolling the LW on the top 6 is not a SERIOUS upgrade over Torres and JFJ/Nilsen/Petersen....come on?
I generally like most of Lowe's cap moves - but the idiotic Lupul deal and paying Moreau and Pisani is hurting our ability to afford top line talent (and I must state that I like both players a lot). Pisani simply must play in the top 6 next season - then we can fill the 3rd line RW slot with a cheap vet. Moreau's salary looks worse next year than it is because the bonus he got last season is levied against this season's cap - but at $1.75 million going forward it's not that bad. But a 3rd line of Moreau Stoll Pisani making $7.5 million is just too expensive - Stoll and Pisani are being paid like top 6 players - so they better be played like top 6 players and drive results like top 6 players.
We need an elite LW and an elite top pair dman to be competitive - and we have more than enough caproom, budget, and trading chips like picks and players to make it happen. There are no excuses this off-season - Lowe has plenty of time to make the deals we need to bring in these players - and lose a couple guys like Lupul and Reasoner who probably won't make any useful contribution next season.
I still like a Lupul for Kubina trade as this fixes 2 issues at once (top pair dman and getting rid of Lupul. At $5 million per season Kubina is not that overpaid and a good candidate for a serious rebound season. Then bring in a LH shot like Sydor to play on the 3rd pair with Smid/Gilbert/Grebs and help the PP - or trade Smith, Torres and picks for a LH shot like Pitkanen. We need serious moves this summer on defense not tinkering and not hoping 2nd year pros will make a difference.
As for the top line LW slot - a guy like Kariya would be nice and we should try for other guys like Nash and Kovalchuk if they are available - but reality may get in the way. I can deal with giving Smyth $5.5 million over 3 years - but a 5 year deal is crazy. Another option could be getting a pair of UFAs like Hartnell and Fedotenko. I like both guys a lot and they are both big, solid ES players and excellent in the playoffs. Combined they would cost about the same as Smyth alone and would look good in the top 6. This would also allow us to use Torres as trade bait.
Anyway - a busy summer for Lowe and one that will determine his job status going forward. I expect a $47 million budget from EIG and some SERIOUS changes on defense, at LW, and more veteran grit throughout the forward lineup. Mistakes like Lupul also have to be fixed. Standing pat is not acceptable and the fans should be outraged if that happens.
Bendelson - have a look at this info on MCs site and consider whether the Oilers are not now in the "big boy" category. Damn sure looks that way to me....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=2762#comments
Only if they spend like the big boys Asiaoil, which current ownership looks unwilling to do...
ReplyDeleteI think this is how Bruins fans have felt over the past 20 years.