This is Milt Schmidt, toward the end of his Boston Bruins playing career. It isn't a stretch to say that his name meant to Boston what the names of the great Oilers mean in this town. 99, Messier, Coffey, Kurri, Lowe, Anderson.Those guys.
Schmidt was employed by the Bruins for a long bloody time, only losing his job as GM (he'd also spent time coaching and doing other things) when he performed so poorly in the summer of 1972 that there was no real choice other than to fire him.
I went back and looked at "icons who had a bad summer in positions of authority in the town that adored them" and Milt (1972) is a nice comp for Kevin Lowe's summer 2006.
The Bruins had just won the Stanley for the second time in three seasons, and were led by the greatest player of all time, Bobby Orr.
With the WHA raiding talent, and the expansion draft needing to stock Atlanta's Flames and the Islanders, Milt suffered one of the truly awful two months in the history of the game.
- After allowing outstanding goalie prospect Daniel Bouchard to leave through the expansion draft, Schmidt was unable to sign the club's top goalie, Gerry Cheevers. The Bruins didn't solve that problem for some time (Eddie Johnston was capable, but not top drawer).
- He lost veteran Johnny McKenzie to the WHA. McKenzie was part of an exceptional 2nd line with Johnny Bucyk and Fred Stanfield.
- He lost Derek Sanderson, a talented center who was key to the team's penalty killing and a master in the faceoff circle, to the WHA.
- He lost Eddie Westfall, the other vital vog on the PK, to expansion and the Islanders.
- Ted Green went to the WHA, leaving a hole on the blueline.
- Depth in the form of Ron Plumb, Don Tannahill and others left to the other league and lesser NHL clubs.
Schmidt went from a three line, 5D, 2G powerhouse to a team that had holes everywhere but the 1line and Orr. The Bruins were the best team in the league in spring, and lost in the opening round the following year. By 1974 Milt Schmidt was in charge of the Washington Capitals at the expansion draft and oversaw yet another disaster.
Is this the fate that awaits Kevin Lowe? We'll see. One thing I believe to be certain: Kevin Lowe's job is in danger, and the next several weeks will dictate his future in Edmonton. If he can turn this team around to the point where the organization can be more positive about the future this time next summer then he might be able to survive.
If he can't deliver, which I think is likely given the cards available this summer and the massive gap between NHL players and roster spots, I suspect we'll look back on Kevin Lowe's summer 2006 exactly the way everyone saw Milt Schmidt's 1972.
Better than Richard Nixon's 1974, but not by much.
I say if he doesn't get this team into the playoffs, he's gone. He probably would have survived if he handled the Smyth thing properly.
ReplyDeleteCan't say I disagree LT. Lowe handled both the Pronger and the Smyth affairs in a terrible way, and you don't trade away your two best players for scraps and expect to survive in this league. Any CEO- be it of a hockey team, a company, a hedge fund, whatever- is responsible for one thing and one thing only: performance.
ReplyDeleteI don't care about "exceeding circumstances" or the "bad hands kevin was dealt." His job is to improve his club, and he has yet to do that in a whole year.
So yes, Lowe deserves to be fired if he can't at least give his fan base some optimism. And optimism, for this fan base, means playoffs.
Nothing short and it will be the axe.
Personally, I think it's a huge mistake to judge Lowe based on whether we make the 08 playoffs. It's an easy trap to fall into, but if we want to keep telling ourselves we're better than Leafs fans, we need to be smarter. LT is right, the better litmus test for Lowe is whether or not the Oilers have a brighter future this time next year than they have today.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers make the playoffs next year in the 6-7-8 spot, and sell out their future to do so, Lowe needs to go. If we miss the playoffs but look strong moving forward, that may or may not be enough to save his job. Either way, I think the only way Lowe's job should really be safe is if we can make the playoffs without moving too many picks/prospects/young roster players.
I just don't see how Lowe can get this team into the playoffs, even if he traded "the future" or futures or whatever the hell else.
ReplyDeleteAnd for all this "bad hand" bullshit, Pronger might've requested a trade but the league didn't tell Kevin Lowe that he had to be dealt post-haste for a guy who can't even own soft min and for a D that couldn't score 8 goals if he played 40 min a night, 82 games a year against Tommy Salo, plus a bunch of draft picks from a team that was good before they good Pronger for virtually nothing that would hamper their '07 roster. Plus, the Smyth thing lies on his hands.
Lowe made moves that got us one great playoff season, one win away from teh Cup. Then he made moves that most likely will keep us out of the playoffs for three years time.
Lets just wait and see, it's a game of results. If he gets them this summer good for him. If he doesn't, well Oiler fans won't stand for losing... or we will but we won't like it.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThings are not great but I believe they are not as far gone as you seem to LT. If Lowe makes some good moves, the young guys progress, some players rebound with better years and stay relatively healthy (ala Moreau, Stoll) then I think we will be better than you think next season. Not world beaters but I do not think challenging for the final playoff spot is not out of the question.
ReplyDeleteI really enjoy reading your stuff LT, thanks for doing this.
There's no question that KLowe is under the microscope this season however management has to know that with the transactions that were "forced" to some degree and the injuries last year coupled with the SCF hangover. KLowe likely has a two year window to get it together.
ReplyDeleteHe should agressively pursue at least one legitimate #1 Center for Hemsky as well as a top 2 Dman via trade. Maybe pick up a middle of the road UFA forward for depth. And be happy with that.
Keep the young guys in the minors to develop properly. Work toward building some chemistry, consistentcy, staying healthy, and saving money. Push toward the playoffs but essentially look toward 08/09, when the team will make some real noise by adding some of the UFA's available that year.
If the team doesn't finish top 5 in the west after 08/09, get out the axe.
My two cents.
G99
Kevin Lowe has a serious upcoming season to look at. One one hand, he has young guys that are waiting to enter their prime years in Hemsky/Stoll and older veterans like Smith/Staios/Moreau/Roloson. On the other, he has inexperience out his backside on the blueline in Greene/Smid/Grebeshkov and deadweight like Lupul.
ReplyDeleteWeird combination for a team I'd say. As this season certainly proved, you can't develop every single young player in your roster all at once so it looks like Lowe is going to have to make a swap somewhere down the line to even out the balance. If he wants to keep his job, we're certainly not tanking next season.
I believe this is the upper edge of what Lowe could do this summer. If he is able to ice a team close to this I will be some impressed.
ReplyDelete#-Player-Age- Cap Est.- Sal. Est.
Forwards (14) $28.569 $27.792
83 Hemsky, Ales (RW) 23 $4.100 $3.600
19 Richards, Brad (C) 28 $7.800 $7.800
17 Hartnell, Scott (LW) 25 $3.000 $3.000
16 Stoll, Jarret (C) 25 $2.200 $2.200
34 Pisani, Fernando (RW) 30 $2.500 $2.500
14 Torres, Raffi (LW) 25 $2.000 $2.000
28 Thoresen, Patrick (C)* 23 $0.570 $0.543
18 Moreau, Ethan (LW) 31 $2.000 $1.750
78 *Pouliot, Marc (C) 22 $0.942 $0.942
15 *Nilsson, Robert (RW) 23 $0.900 $0.900
19 Reasoner, Marty (C) 30 $0.950 $0.950
20 Petersen, Toby (C) 27 $0.600 $0.600
44 *Jacques, J F (LW) 22 $0.500 $0.500
46 *Stortini, Zach (RW) 22 $0.507 $0.507
Defencemen (7) $13.057 $13.063
Pitkanen, Joni 25 $2.800 $2.800
Visnovsky, Lubomir 31 $1.900 $1.900
24 Staios, Steve 33 $2.700 $2.900
25 Hejda, Jan 29 $2.000 $2.000
29 Tjarnqvist, Daniel 30 $1.800 $1.800
5 Smid, Ladislav* 21 $0.915 $0.721
*Grebeshkov, Dennis 24 $0.942 $0.942
Goaltenders (2) $4.609 $4.442
35 Roloson, Dwayne 37 $3.667 $3.500
39 *Drouin-Deslaurier, Jeff 23 $0.942 $0.942
Total Cap Hit $46.236
Total Salary $45.298
Cap Space ($48.5MM) $2.264
Average Age 26.5
To do this Lowe would have to make the following moves;
To TBL - Horcoff - $4.1MM
To EDM - Richards - $7.8MM
To PHI - Smith, Greene and NYI 1st
To EDM - Pitkanen
To LAK - Lupul - $2.3MM
To EDM - Visnovsky - $1.9MM
Sign UFA's;
Hartnell for four yrs at $3.0MM/yr
Toby Peterson for one yr at $0.6MM
Hejda for one yr at $2.0MM
Tjarnqvist for one yr at $1.8MM
Sign RFA's;
Torres for two yrs at $2.0MM/yr
Pitkanen for one yr at $2.8MM
Grebeshkov for 3 yrs at $1.3MM/yr
T
I don't think Lowe is in that much jeopardy frankly. Playoffs won't matter that much if the team is young and people see a future. I do think the test will be whether he makes another "bad" trade. If so, I think he will be on some thin ice.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, he can point to the 8th best list of prospects per Hockey's Future with a chance to move up into the top 5 in 10 days. If I was him I would point to Pittsburg and say how the Oilers will be right there in a few years.
There is obviously going to be a big shock going from the finals to 24th place and Lowe seems to have weathered that storm. I am not sure that could have been avoided though given that Pronger and Peca et al. were going to leave no matter what Lowe did. Throw in the injuries and no GM in history would have made the playoffs last year.
I don't see Lowe really having made many bad moves. Dennis will tell you the Pronger trade was bad but do we really know what the offers were? The Smyth trade was equivalent to what the Oil should have got for Smyth. The drafting has been good in the last 4 or 5 years. The trades for Peca and Pronger were genius. Locking up Hemsky longterm was smart. The business side has been well run.
There is a lot to like with Lowe. What irks me is how people react to results to attribute skill. Brian Burke is now a genius when he never built anything of use in Vancouver and added 2 or 3 players to the Ducks. I'd take Lowe over Burke and his big ego any day.
Big T, I like that team except I think Richards is way over rated and I have an unhealthy attachment to Matt Greene. Richards seems to be the beneficiary of the play of Vinny and St. Louis. I am scared his #'s would drop off a lot and he doesn't bring a lot else (leadership, physical play, defence) to the party for $7+ million.
ReplyDeleteCan you gets us another #1 centre please? :-)
ReplyDeleteTo TBL - Horcoff - $4.1MM
To EDM - Richards - $7.8MM
To PHI - Smith, Greene and NYI 1st
To EDM - Pitkanen
To LAK - Lupul - $2.3MM
To EDM - Visnovsky - $1.9MM
Surely you jest. Lupul straight-up for Visnovsky? You do know Mike Barnett isn't a GM anymore, right?
If Lowe somehow managed to pull off one of these trades (let alone all of them), I'd be willing to crown him executive of the year before the season even started.
Metrognome you dolt;
ReplyDeleteRead the post!
1)I said that this was the absolute upper end of what Lowe would be able to do. Not what I expected him to do.
2) Visnovsky plays for the Kings (as mentioned in the post!) Barnett is not the GM fo the Kings, Lombardi is.
3) 3-4 yrs of Lupul for one year of Visnovsky isn't a stretch at all. Especially considering how badly Visnovsky hates Crawford.
T
Barry;
ReplyDeleteThe debate about Richards is gonna go on until he isn't in the shadows any longer. I believe the guy gets the tough match ups almost exclusively and still puts up results. I do believe that he is overpayed by $1.5MM per year, but that's the entire reason he may be obtainable.
As for Greene, I am not against the guy, just thinking of someone Philly would be interested in. Philly likes their Defenseman big and strong.
If this deal were actually to go down I'd much prefer for Visnovsky to take the place of Smith in a three way deal with LAK.
From an EDM point of view such a deal would be Lupul, Greene and the NYI '07 1st for Pitkanen. Quite palatable to my eye.
Some might see this as me just wanting to get rid of garbage. I see the point, but I personally am not too down on either of our boys there, especially not Greene.
T
Yeah, it's just me that will "tell" you that the Pronger trade was bad:D
ReplyDeleteI mean, let's forget Smid and Lupul's limitations for a second and just focus on the picks. Two of the three picks are gonna be 30th and 60th. No one's giving up anything just for those picks. You might get something for those picks plus a Torres, but then you're cutting off a piece of your nose to spite your face.
And for the record, the Peca trade was far from genius. York went the other way and he was a useful player up until the time the Oilers dealt him and Peca in Edm was all about having the space to be able to take on his salary.
I'm just shocked that anyone thinks the Oilers could get out of the NW with a playoff spot. This isn't the Central or the Pac where there are teams to beat up on for 8 games per squad, in the NW the Oilers are the team to beat up on.
It is some relief that a emerging consensus that Lowe's departure is essential for any progress for the Oilers from the disaster of the last twelve months.
ReplyDeleteWe can all indulge in anlaysis of how the Pronger trade, Smyth contract breakdown , the Bergeron discard and 2006-07 inaction might still be rationalizable , but it must now be beyond dispute that Lowe's perfomance justifies his dismissal.
The real tragedy is that his dismissal will languish into 2007-08, instead of when it should have been done, about 9 months ago.
What is so bleak is how one could imagine an GM who got "nothing" for two best assets?
Any business person would know that exchanging future consideratiosn for tangible present value is for sure risky, and usually value destroying.
The tragedy is that Oiler fans have to bear the cost of business lessons for Kevin Lowe.
"Any business person would know that exchanging future consideratiosn for tangible present value is for sure risky, and usually value destroying"
ReplyDeleteHuh? Have you seen deadline deals work before? The team seeking a Smyth isn't going to give up players off its roster because they need them for the playoffs!
Your statement should read: "Exchanging future considerations for present value usually looks bad in the near term but can only be judged properly in the long term."
In 2001 Ottawa traded Yashin on a salary dump (at the draft?) for Chara, Muckalt and a 1st rounder who turned into Spezza. At the time, Chara had come off some iffy years for NYI including the 2001 where he scored 9 pts and went -27, Muckalt was filler and Spezza was years away from the NHL. In retrospect it was a steal for Ottawa but had Chara continued the way he had been and Spezza been a bust...
In 4 years who knows, Nilson, O'Mara and whoever might look a lot better than Smyth.
There may be exceptions to every rule.
ReplyDeleteYour example of Yashin is entirely inappropriate. Ottawa knew that dumping Yashin for anything was an upgrade. Hardly, what applies in the case of Pronger and Smyth.
Hockey is like business trading real tangible assets for future considerations is risky and usually value destroying.
In the case of Lowe's actions, all this is indisputable, regardless of how the likes of Nilsson etc pan out.
This is a team that lost 18 out of its last 20 games. In addition, to practically handing a Stanley Cup to Anaheim.
Lowe should have been fired months ago.
Barry said...
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, he can point to the 8th best list of prospects per Hockey's Future with a chance to move up into the top 5 in 10 days. If I was him I would point to Pittsburg and say how the Oilers will be right there in a few years.
Barry, come on.
Lowe could piss on us and tell us it's raining too, but will anyone believe it?
First off, HF's rankings are worth fuckall. Period. Anyone that points to that can watch me turn off my TV set.
Secondly, this team is so far from Pittsburgh's position in terms of quality young players it's not even funny. Whitney, Staal, Crosby, Malkin and Fleury are all better than every single Oiler under the age of 22. That's a pretty big gap to make up in a decade let alone a couple of seasons.
"Whitney, Staal, Crosby, Malkin and Fleury are all better than every single Oiler under the age of 22"
ReplyDeleteAgreed. But all these guys were drafted very high due to the yearly suckage of the Penguins. Why does everyone expect Edmonton to somehow wind up with these type of guys without the down years? My point is Lowe has to point to this as the future. I think Oil fans will buy into this model. Add a top 6 guy this year, maybe get into the lottery next year and get lucking with the later picks and people will get behind it.
Well Lowetide,
ReplyDeleteYou still write in a straightforward, clear, and concise fashion, but dare I say a little poetic flare has slipped into your delivery along the way?
Sometimes, to make sense, we must involve more than just what little brain that we have left. Sometimes it is the right thing to do. You used a Sledge hammer to get the job done.
keep pounding the keys...
Great post, but I really don't think we'll see Lowe go anywhere... at least not this year.
ReplyDeleteIf Lowe can't sign or trade for a quality offensive defenseman, then he is gone, and should be.
I have a feeling he's going to make a blockbuster trade or signing, and either give too much or pay too much to land what he needs to save his job.
-Matt
www.gunnhockey.com