Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Desjardins' Applied to Top 10 CHL Forwards

Below are the Desjardins' NHLE applied to the elite 10 CHL forwards in this year's draft (as ranked by ISS, the superior draft guide):
  1. Patrick Kane, OHL: 26-36-62
  2. Sam Gagner, OHL: 16-39-55
  3. Brett MacLean, OHL: 17-19-36
  4. Logan Couture, OHL: 12-24-36
  5. Zach Hamill, WHL: 11-22-33
  6. Jakub Voracek, QMJHL: 9-24-33
  7. Angelo Esposito, QMJHL: 10-20-30
  8. David Perron, QMJHL: 13-14-27
  9. Oscar Moller, WHL: 12-13-25
  10. Colton Gillies, WHL: 5-6-11

A few things come to mind:

  1. We should probably institute a new rule about London. Call it the 'Desjardins caveat', because the Knights appear to lap the field in terms of PP, ATOI for their best players. Plus I think they play in Wrigley Field. This season, both Patrick Kane and Sam Gagner have ridiculous numbers, and both play for the Knights.
  2. Colton Gillies must have a super skill not seen by the naked eye to be as highly rated as he is right now. His offense appears to be non-existent. Maybe he's like 'The Blob' or something, but Desjardins' doesn't like him one bit.
  3. Desjardins' loves Brett MacLean, a big LW for Oshawa. He has size, strength and skill. Based on his numbers, MacLean deserves to be taken in the top end of the first round.
  4. We don't have lots of kids on this list because they don't play in the CHL. James vanRiesmsdyk, Alexei Cherepanov, Maxim Mayorov and all the defenders aren't on the list. Still, it's interesting to see how they line up. Now if we only had the ATOI.
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8 comments:

  1. BendelsonWednesday, June 13, 2007 at 2:34:00 AM MDT

    Is there a bonafide superstar-in-the-making anywhere on the list?

    Kane? Voracek? Esposito?

    So, if the typical top 10 in the draft have 50/50 chance of a long NHL career, which 5 aren't going to make the cut?

    It's a gamble in every respect.

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  2. momentaiWednesday, June 13, 2007 at 8:54:00 AM MDT

    If you're looking for a bonafide superstar like Ovechkin/Malkin/Crosby, you're not going to find it here. That being said, there's likely to be good quality at the high end of the draft. There always is.

    I wish we could get a look at the ice time totals for some of those players on the Knights team. It'd be nice to try and put guys like Kane/Gagner vs Voracek/Couture on an even playing field so to speak. Hunter giving them the full 2 minutes on the pp surely gives quite a boost to the old stat sheet, doesn't it?

    Colton Gillies from all I've read doesn't seem like a first round player at his current listing. All the concerns at scoring at the Junior level brings up warning signals for his offensive ability as a forward. But his assets are his speed and he's been known to be defensively sound. I've heard mention that he's been moved back and forth from forward to dman this past year. If I look at him in that light (a fleet footed dman), the offense becomes less of an issue.

    I think the team that drafts him should be looking at turning him into a fulltime dman just like Minnesota did to Burns in his draft year.

    Aside: Lain, did you receive your ISS June Draft Guide yet? I remember reading on the site a while back that it's due out on the 6th but it looks like it may have been pushed back.

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  3. LJWednesday, June 13, 2007 at 11:15:00 AM MDT

    This is the first time I've ever followed a draft this closely, but I get the impression that this is one of the least exciting crops in years. Not *bad*, per se, just dull in its evenness.

    If I was KLowe I might even trade down that #6 pick for a reasonable offer. #12/22 from Montreal, perhaps?

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  4. RiversQWednesday, June 13, 2007 at 3:09:00 PM MDT

    I would hate to see them trade down. They sucked far too hard this year to not get a top six player.

    I'm not a draft nut, but I'm pretty sure there's a big dropoff after the first 5-6 forwards in this draft class. Just like any year.

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  5. YKOilWednesday, June 13, 2007 at 9:14:00 PM MDT

    Riv,

    There are 3 guys the scouts are almost unanimous on:

    Kane, Turris, VanReimsdyk

    There are 4 after that who are well-regarded by 'most':

    Cherepanov, Alzner, Gagner & Voracek

    After that it is a dog's breakfast. Dropping out of the top-6 would be a mistake on that basis.

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  6. RiversQWednesday, June 13, 2007 at 9:40:00 PM MDT

    Agreed ykoil. I'm not sold on Kane by any stretch though. We'll see, but I have a hunch the scouts are going to be wrong about that one. He's got all kinds of blackmarks for my liking.

    I suppose it's entirely likely that he ends up a decent NHLer, but I'm positive that he won't be the best forward from this draft in five years.

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  7. YKOilWednesday, June 13, 2007 at 9:57:00 PM MDT

    Well, I am on record - either trade up to get Voracek or trade down to secure more FIRST round picks (i.e. aim to get 4 or 5 1st rounders).

    Get the guy you want on get more lotto tickets imo.

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  8. oilswellSunday, June 17, 2007 at 9:29:00 PM MDT

    Kane's numbers look pretty good for his age.

    Is it me or does Turris' 17yo numbers look no better than Horcoff's? Am I missing something? Mind you, Horcoff is a #1 C in the NHL. >cough< So that would be a pretty fine pick anyway if you can wait 7 years.

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