At the 2001 Entry Draft, several changes in the Oilers' procurement department began to have an impact on their selections. Kevin Prendergast was now the de facto chief scout, Kevin Lowe took the word of the scouts despite never having seen Hemsky play well, and the 'Mikhnov rule' (which is basically ALL Oiler scouts see their top 50 list live) had been instituted.
By any reasonable estimate, a re-draft of 2001 would have Ales Hemsky in the top 5. Ilya Kovalchuk (379 points), Jason Spezza (253 points) and Hemsky (194 points) are well clear of the competition, although that kid Mike Cammalleri is a helluva player too.
Since 2001, the Oilers have spent only two high picks on "pure skill players":
Pure skill: Ales Hemsky (2001), Rob Schremp (2004)
Big defenders: Doug Lynch (2001), Matt Greene (2002)
Puck moving D: Roman Tesliuk (2004), Taylor Chorney (2005), Jeff Petry (2006)
Coke Machines: Eddie Caron (2001), Colin McDonald (2003), JF Jacques (2003), Geoff Paukovich (2004)
Drunken scouting trip: Jesse Niinimaki (2002)
Goalies: Jeff Deslauriers (2002), Devan Dubnyk (2004)
Multi-dimensional centers: Jarret Stoll (2002), Marc Pouliot (2003), Andrew Cogliano (2005)
If we can agree that the Oilers draft for need (if you object, please let me know) then the Oilers seem well stocked at center, puck moving D and in goal (they also signed Fisher out of college recently giving them three G prospects for the first time since the late 1990s). We need to throw in many names from deeper in the draft (Trukhno, Brodziak, Roy, Syvret, Peckham) and through trades (Gilbert, O'Marra, Nilsson) to get a better idea of what is bubbling under, but it seems safe to say the Oilers might be in the market for another pure skill player, a gritty scoring winger and possibly a big defenseman.
Using that as a shopping list, and understanding the Oilers draft tendencies:
- Stay away from Russia
- Use the college player to avoid top end mistakes
- drafting for need
I'm prepared to say that the Oilers will:
- Avoid Cherepanov
- Possibly deal up for Turris, JVR or Voracek
- Maybe select Alzner if the best F prospects (the three above plus Kane who will go #1) are gone.
I think Kevin Lowe makes a deal with Philly involving Pitkanen and the 2nd overall pick and grabs Kyle Turris. Thoughts? Also, if you follow the draft at all, please post your prediction. We'll review it (about one month from now) and I'll post a braggy item about you on the reference portion of this site (unless it's speeds who clearly has some kind of a Kreskin thing going).
If they trade up to 2nd OV and Voracek is on the board and they take Turris I'll snap ;).
ReplyDeletePredictions though? Those are always fun.
The only pick in the top 30 that they keep is #6. They take Alzner. Then they pull out a big deal. Not sure who they bring in, but they send out Greene, Pouliot, Torres and picks.
And I likely die a little bit on the inside.
pdo: Voracek would be the wise pick, I agree. But I think the Oilers have targeted Turris as the impact player (I have zero inside knowledge clearly, just a feeling).
ReplyDeleteIf they take Voracek I'd be thrilled.
LT:
ReplyDeleteDefinitely agree. I like Turris, and have gotten a very similar vibe that you have that the Oilers like him a LOT.
I'd rather them just trade up to 3rd and let Philly do the smart thing and take Voracek, that way we don't have to cry over it later ;-).
Most of my draft knowledge has come from reading, but right now I'd say its:
1. Voracek
2. Turris
3. Kane
4. JVR
5. Alzner
6. Cherry
There's definitely people out there far more informed than me on this subject, but that's just my gut feeling. Voracek is far and away the most complete player who shouldn't have any problems translating his game to the NHL though. The rest all have their blemishes.
Here's a crazy idea I had for Dennis a few weeks ago:
ReplyDeleteStoll and all three picks to CHI for Keith/Seabrook/Barker and the 1st overall which they use to draft Voracek.
I'm not sure it's a great idea, but if you want a young dman out of Chicago that might be the only way to make it happen.
pdo: I wouldn't even rank Kane that high personally. Small, old for his draft year, and racking up numbers for the London Knights are all black marks in my book.
LT: What's your package going for Pitkanen and the second overall?
I'd trade them Lupul and the 6th to move up to 2nd and then I'd move Smid and the 29th pick to get Pitkanen.
Note that this is more than we got for Pronger. ;) I'd love to see this because it's a huge upgrade and then even the typical sub-moronic Edmonton hockey writer can actually take Lowe to task for getting raked over the coals by Burke.
Seriously though, what's fair for Pitkanen and the 2nd overall?
If I had to guess what you'd say, I'd bet Torres, the 6th and 29th for Pitkanen and the 2nd.
If I had to keep Lupul and Smid because I was too proud, then I'd say Schremp, Jacques, the 6th, the 15th and the Ducks' 2nd rounder.
Great stuff LT.
ReplyDeleteI'm of the mind that the top ten guys are going to end up including a few stars, a few busts and a handful that carve out reasonable careers. I'm no draftnik but from what little I've read I think that one or two guys (say Esposito maybe) end up out of the top six but are big successes nevertheless.
And everything I've read about Alzner - well I know we have a ton of kids on the back end already but he sounds pretty solid.
Anyhow, I could see Philly taking Torres, Greene and the 6 for Pitkanen and the 2. Knowing Philly they're going to spend (Timmonen and Briere? Do they have the room?) to try and get back on that horse - they want guys who can play now.
I like your idea Rivers but would anybody take Stoll right now? If he had finished the year healthy I think he would be the prime guy to be traded but while things sound good for him I think that nobody would take that chance until he has played again.
Oh and those coke machines have worked out well, huh?
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ReplyDeleteRQ: I think the Oilers will deal someone like Jason Smith or Ethan Moreau (maybe both) with possibly a young player thrown in (obviously not all of them).
ReplyDeleteMatt Greene played well at the WHC's so maybe Greene, Ethan and the 6th overall pick for Pitkanen and 2nd? Not enough?
Predicting the Oilers moves on draft day... yeah, that's a challenge with huge pressure on KLowe to make a draft day deal or two as well...
ReplyDeleteTorres needs to go.
Schremp needs to go (as IF he will ever be effective for Edm).
I don't like the idea of trading any of our young d-men. Smid is going to be great... really! Greene is going to be solid... really!
So use Torres and/or Schremp to hopefully move up and take a useful, highly skilled Turris or Voracek.
If it can't be done, draft Alzner and start licking your wounds.
If KLowe does a magical trade to actually improve the team next year - it will likely involve so many players both current and future (picks) that we may not recongnize next years team. And that would be great.
Good Luck Oilers...
We are going to need it.
I don't mind those. I could see Smith going this year, but I can't really see them dealing Moreau. He's a company man signed to a nice little extension.
ReplyDeleteI just hate the idea of trading Torres and keeping Lupul. It's just so crazy from a results perspective. I'm not even considering the money because that makes it even worse.
BTW, I'd trade Lupul and the 29th pick for Samsonov and the 12th overall in a New York minute. I've had a look at Samsonov's numbers and he's not bad at all. You have to realize that the Habs put up less offense at 5V5 than the Oilers did this year.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Meanwhile Samsonov never got settled in and still put up 1.85 ESP/hr. He's only 28 and unlike Lupul, he has a proven track record at ES and on the PP. Furthermore, he's only going to cost $1MM more than Lupul at his current price.
I'm pretty sure Chicago's going to take Kane with the #1 pick as they're said to be looking for someone who can step in and play with Havlat. Philly scares me because they draft differently each year, but have taken Canadian talent in the last couple years. If they stick to this philosophy, its Alzner (unlikely) or Turris. Turris is going to be a player eventually, but hasn't it been mentioned he wants to play the full 4 years of college before turning pro? It might be a bargaining chip for him and his agent, but it could also turn out to be true. I'd avoid Turris for this reason.
ReplyDeleteThe one prospect im coveting in this draft is Jakub Voracek. He's a player who's intent on developing his skills, and he knew that the best way to do this was to come overseas. Even though he plays in the QMJHL, he plays like a big bad WHL Alberta-boy already. I'm praying he falls into our laps at pick #6. When he's drafted, is he elligible to play in the AHL the following year, or is there a CHL contract he has to honour if he doesn't make the NHL club that drafts him?
I'm of the opinion Lowe doesn't pull a trade during draft day, though he'll say he tried his best.
I'd love to see the following from the Oilers table this year.
First Edmonton selection: Jakub Voracek.
Islander's pick: Logan Couture (C, Ottawa 67s)
Ducks pick: Alex Plante (D, Calgary Hitmen)
Will this happen, likely not, but one can dream...
I am on record as pro-Voracek. I think he is the real deal and I agree with pdo's listing of the top-6 - everyone else has big(ger) question marks.
ReplyDeleteIf not Voracek then I also don't mind the idea of trading the 6th to Montreal for the 12th and 22nd.
I will quibble with RivQ on the Lupul for Samsonov deal: Samsonov should be cheaper than that.
Lupul is cheaper by BOTH budget and Cap, doesn't have the historical injury issues that Samsonov does and he retains RFA status at the end of his contract. A fairer deal would be:
Samsonov & 12th overall
FOR
Lupul & 96th overall
Montreal is an interesting trade partner for Edmonton in a lot of ways it seems.
Final Notes:
pdo is right: taking Alzner and then trading Greene, Pouliot, Torres and picks would hurt hard
rivq has an interesting proposal there (the Chi-town deal):
Seabrook & 1st overall
FOR
Stoll, Young, 15th & 29th
Interesting.
Turris is going to be a player eventually, but hasn't it been mentioned he wants to play the full 4 years of college before turning pro? It might be a bargaining chip for him and his agent, but it could also turn out to be true. I'd avoid Turris for this reason.
ReplyDeleteI don't recall reading Turris say he wanted to stay for 4, but even if he did, I'd take it with a grain of salt. I remember Jack Skille saying he'd like to stay for 4 with the Badgers, and obviously that didn't happen. The prevailing feeling among Badger fans is that we'll be lucky to see Turris wearing the Cardinal and White for 2 years.
I don't really expect any top NCAA players to stay for 4.
I know that it's usually Tim Pannacio, sp, that brings up all the Pitkanen out of town rumors because some Flyers fans say the guy lacks credibility when it comes to possible deals. We should take that to heart because the hardcore fans know the guys to trust. In any case, there was a report from one of the Philly dailies the other day that wasn't written by this guy and it started out as talking about how the Flyers re-upped Kukkonen, it moved to how this might be a stablizing factor for Joni and it ended up with Holmgren admitting he's been talking to Kevin Lowe and with the writer not saying Pitkanen was going to Edm mind you, but speculating that he will be dealt.
ReplyDeletePitkanen plus the 2nd overall is a pretty big move though.
ykoil: I see your point, but I counter with the fact that Samsonov is a much better hockey player.
ReplyDeleteI'm all about picking the bones of that Montreal club. Anyone else intrigued by Perezhogin? +11 on a terrible team and played some tough opp according to Desjardins. Apparently he's not happy in Montreal either and signed a Russian deal with a NHL escape clause. Kovalev has always been a very interesting player to me as well.
Speaking of Russians...
YKoil, I saw your Fedorov idea. I kind of like it because I've always thought he was an underrated player even though he was respected as elite. (As in Stevie Y wishes he could have carried Fedorov's jock) The only thing that worries me about that idea is that his scoring rates are in serious decline. $6MM is a lot of coin unless he can provide a little more upside than he's had the past couple of years. Could he have a Selanne-esque rebirth at age 38? The Oilers need to roll the dice with someone IMO.
I can deal with getting Pitkanen and then also bringing in a guy like Hamrlik to shore up the top 4:
ReplyDeleteHammer Smith
Pitkanen Staios
Greene Grebs Gilbert
I give up Smid, Lupul and the #6 for the Finn and #2 but I don't think Philly does that. Anyway - the same deal to CHI may interest them and they may be dumb enough to take Lupul.
Riv - keep Samsonov the hell away from here - he soft, pouty and no sniper
LT - trading Moreau and Smith would be suicide for a young soft team like the OIlers
Anyway - predicting the deals is impossible but here are my draft favorites:
Trade-Up Best Bet: Vorocek (BPA period)
Likely BPA @ #6: Alzner or Gagner
Best Steal @ #15: Couture
Late First ANA Pick: Simon Hjalmarsson (LW - Sweden)
#36 in 2nd Round: Kent Patterson (G - USHL)
LT: a deal for the 2nd overall AND Pitkanen? Boy that sounds like a trade where we give up a whole lot.
ReplyDeleteIncidently, Smith is a D I absolutely do not want moved. Only reliable guy last year... without him and Staios where would we be? Replacing him with someone leaves us with depth that is just as bad.
Asia, I don't think that package is nearly enough for Joni plus the 2. Pitkanen may have people tearing their hair out in Philly but there's no doubt he has value and there's a huge doubt to how much value Smid has and Lupul actually has negative value considering he's expensive and he sucks at playing the soft min.
ReplyDeletePitkanen may have people tearing their hair out in Philly but there's no doubt he has value and there's a huge doubt to how much value Smid has and Lupul actually has negative value considering he's expensive and he sucks at playing the soft min.
ReplyDeleteSmid's worth a little more than you think. The Oilers have already paid a hefty development price for the kid and that investment is worth something. Considering age and price as well of course. His value is probably higher than someone like Braydon Coburn for example.
Lupul's contract really hurts his trade value IMO. If he had a $1.5MM cap hit, it would be easy to find someone who figures they can change him. At $2.3MM, that GM gets hard to find IMO.
Riv, I'm thinking not in terms of how much the Oilers have put in to him or what they gave up to get him, but rather in terms of how much value he has for the team that gets him. He's a 5 or 6 depending on how successful you want to be and he's on the entry level pact and he has six years of service time remaining
ReplyDeleteLT:
ReplyDeleteLove the blog. Particularly the quirky historical features and the impartiality and level headedness which the oiler board on HF seems to have become totally devoid of.
Re Smid: I think some of the posters on here have let the horrible Oilers season cloud their judgement on his value. How many 20 year old D were there that played more than 40 games in the NHL last year. By my count 2 (i may have missed one or two). Smid and Vlasic. Sure Vlasic had better stats but he is a pretty darn good D man and which team would you rather have broken into the NHL on? The 06/07 Oilers or the 06/07 Sharks? I have no problem with people criticizing management and the situation Smid was thrust into but those that want to throw him and everything else at what they view as a quick fix are totally losing the plot imo. to win the stanley cup!! trading Smid for less than fair value in desperation is something the islanders or blackhawks would do.
2nd is a question: Can you give me an easy reference where I can view which players have to clear waivers? Particularly on HF people are throwing around player names (ex. Gilbert) who "need to make the team or go back to the AHL". Makes sense on the face of it but doesn't seem most posters have any inkling of the waiver status when they make these statements.
keep the blogs coming!
rivers... what's the deal with you and the Russians hockey players?
ReplyDeleteThe Oil don't do Russians (though I would make an exception and make room for Ovechkin!) Perezhogin, Samsonov, Kovalev, Federov... umm, no, no, no and no. Part time overpaid players (though I do appreciate Perezhogin has made himself into a useful role player).
Lets keep it simple:
Torres for Pitkanen or Seabrook. Done. The Oil need to dump him quick before he infects the young Oilers with his extra-curricular activities! Yeah the trade doesn't improve our goal scoring, but at least it'll send the RIGHT message to knobs like Lupul. Get you ass out of the bars, your nose out of the candy, and take your job seriously!
As for trades that'll get the Oilers into next years playoffs... I don't think that trade or combination of trades exist. It's far more likely, the Oil will trade Rollie and Smith at the deadline and go for a lottery pick next year.
There is no quick and easy fix. This is a long term project I'm afraid. In fact, I would predict KLowe and MacT will be gone before the Oilers are a contender again.
I hope I'm wrong by the way.
PS - I really don't understand this dumping on Smid. The kid ended the year well playing physical, with emotion. He is a keeper with huge upside IMO.
Bendelson said...
ReplyDeleterivers... what's the deal with you and the Russians hockey players?
It's simple really. The market for Russian players is a volatile one. They were undervalued for a time and then they were overvalued for a couple of years as well. I think they've come full circle and seem to be a little undervalued at the moment. If you can't give away a player like Sergei Samsonov at 28yrs old, I think there's more likely a undervaluation opertaing there that can be exploited rather than anything real.
If the Oilers "don't do Russians" then they're idiots really. There's no good excuse for ignoring Russian hockey players as a rule IMO. And no, I don't consider stereotypes or jingoism as valid excuses. There are reasons to avoid some of them and there are probably good reasons to avoid drafting one thanks to the transfer agreement debacle, but ignoring them altogether is inexcusable.
I'm late to this party but I'll throw in my scattered commentary:
ReplyDeletepdo: I have to agree, Voracek is my preferred choice of the top level players - he seems to have the right combination of high potential and lack of significant warts to make him the best pick IMO
lowetide: you propose a trade up (which Edmonton obviously has the assets to make happen) but why is it in Edmonton's best interests? If there really is so little to choose between the top players why not keep the high quantity of draft picks? I'm also skeptical because I can't remember Edmonton ever trading up successfully.
Rivers: I am a fan of your trade proposals. More importantly though I think you raise some very legitimate concerns about Patrick Kane. I think my own order of preference is Voracek, Turris, Kane/JVR, Alzner/Cherepanov. Note how each interchangeable pair involves two basically opposite player types.
Anyhow, to actually predict how things go? The Oilers make a trade involving either the 15th or 29th for a roster player and pick Alzner at 6. I would love for them to pick up someone like Couture with the #15 if they have it but I don't think he falls that far. Finally, can anyone tell me about Nick Petrecki? I am intrigued by him at 15 as well.
If KLo keeps all three picks, the Oilers take Alzner (or Gagner if Alzner is gone) at 6.
ReplyDeleteRiley Nash becomes an Oiler in the 1st round, perhaps even at #15. (btw, check out Nash as a comparable vs. Zajac)
I'll guess Gillies or a Euro (Hjalmarsson, Backlund, Mayorov or Andersson) with the other 1st, although the Rowat post on HF made me think the Oil could pick a tender at #29 or #36 and he's as good a bet as any (for the Oilers to pick that is) in this draft.
I have a feeling that if we move a pick it will be the #6 in a big deal or the #15 in a smaller trade. The ANA pick is worth less but this draft is pretty deep if not stacked with high end talent.
ReplyDeleteThat said - yeah one of the skilled Euros in the late first round makes sense - and the goalie Patterson in the 2nd round is also interesting. Patterson seems to have all the tools and put up some very good numbers in the USHL at a young age - in fact if he was ONE day younger he would not be eligible until 2008. So he is essentially a 2008 player stuck in the 2007 draft (he wont turn 18 until September) which is a huge disadvantage to the kid - but he still fared very well