Let's use 5M as the outer marker for Edmonton in terms of UFA forwards this summer. It's a huge number, but in the post below there were some good points made about not using 43M as the hard cap number.
So let's say 5M. Kevin and Craig and Cal and Patrick in a room having a brandy, a beer, prune juice and an enema with ice, respectively.
On a nicely printed piece of foolscap is an overview of potential UFA forwards who haven't said nasty things about Edmonton.
Petr Sykora: 06-07SAL: $2.9M. Stats: 1.71EV points-per-hour, 3.96PP points-per-hour. Sykora's minus 20 doesn't look good, and his point total for 82gp playing 16:39 a night on the top line should be better. He disappeared down the stretch (20gp, 2-2-4 to close out the year while going minus 15 in that time) but I'd be happy if they brought him back at 2.5M or so. Sykora's a smart hockey player with tremendous skill and can move the puck and his feet on the PP. According to Desjardins, Sykora's three most used linemates in 06-07 were Hemsky, Lupul and Petersen.
Eric Lindros: 06-07SAL: $1.55M. Stats: 2.00EV points-per-hour, 2.74PP points-per-hour. Dallas had 26 more goals on the PP than Edmonton, but Lindros wasn't a big player. Still, he had a nice season when healthy at EV, and if we're talking Moneyball then Lindros is kind of Dennis Martinez in about 1986. Not a top level option, but man he has a lot of things, even at half speed. Most often saw icetime in 06-07 with Riberio and three different defensemen.
Ladislav Nagy: 06-07SAL: $3.00M. Stats: 1.78EV points-per-hour, 4.74PP points-per-hour. I've always liked Nagy, although he's not a "first shot scorer" so despite shooting left he's not an ideal solution to the lets-find-Hemsky some help problem. Most often used linemates were Doan and Yanic Perreault in Phoenix. Ridiculous PP number, extremely skilled. Love to have him here.
Bill Guerin: 06-07SAL: $2.00M. Stats: 2.39EV points-per-hour, 3.29PP points-per-hour. Bill Guerin is one of those players who we'll have to tell the kids about, because he's better than his career numbers imply. A dip a couple of years ago and his salad days in the deadball era have nicked his power numbers, but he's been a beauty player for a long time now. At 36 he's not an ideal pick for the Oilers, plus he's a righty shot. Most often played with Doug Weight and Martin Rucinsky.
Robert Lang: 06-07SAL: $3.80M. Stats: 1.97EV points-per-hour, 3.52PP points-per-hour. Lang has hung in there pretty well considering he's 36 now and was never considered an impact player. He had 166 shots this season, which is a nice number nut not Guerin's 225. Played most often with Cleary and Williams this season.
Paul Kariya: 06-07SAL: $4.50M. Stats: 2.48EV points-per-hour, 3.67PP points-per-hour. 32-year old speedster is a very nice match for Hemsky's skills. 224 shots this year, 245 the year before, he's played 82 games in three of the last 4 seasons. Unlike Hemsky in that he shoots from anywhere, and being a lefty the PP would/should get a mighty lift. Expensive fellow, he most often played with Erat and Legwand this season.
Scott Hartnell: 06-07SAL: $1.75M. Stats: 2.31EV points-per-hour, 3.03PP points-per-hour. Hartnell's interesting in that his EV number is good and he scored 10 goals on the PP, had 150 shots in 64 games, 211 in a full season the year before. Because of his age he's going to get a big money contract before proving he has 30-goal upside (he's scored more than 20 twice) and his health is a concern. Played most often with Radulov and 3 defenders by Desjardins' metric.
Peter Forsberg: 06-07SAL: $5.75M. Stats: 2.26EV points-per-hour, 6.38PP points-per-hour. What a ridiculous hockey player. 33 years old and when healthy he looks like a man amongst boys in the highest league on the planet. Not a good match for Hemsky because he doesn't shoot much (99 shots in 57 games, Hemsky had 122 shots in 64gp), there isn't a team in the NHL that couldn't use him. May retire. Played most often with Kariya and Radulov when in Nashville, he wouldn't qualify under the 5M number but he's such a great player that I think we can at least talk about him.
The guys that interest me are likely the NAS twins Hartnell and Kariya. Hartnell would be an interesting top line LW experiment with Hemmer - only concern is his speed - would he be fast enough? Kariya would be good as well but I'd draw the line at his current salary.
ReplyDeleteNagy - crazy PP number but really has never been any better than Sykora (who was hurt the 2nd half and that was the likely result of his slide). So why not keep Sykora.
If we sign Harnell for $3.5 million - the our port side looks like: Hartnell, Torres, Moreau, JFJ. That's a pretty nasty bunch to play against.
Hartnell Horcoff Hemsky
Torres Pouliot Pisani
Moreau Stoll Thoresen
JFJ/Nillsen Reasoner/Brodziak Schremp/Stortini
I think that forward crew could get us 210 goals and be very solid at ES - if the defense can get us another 20 then we'll be fine.
You say keep Sykora, then don't show him
ReplyDeleteHartnell Horcoff Hemsky
Torres Stoll Pisani
Nilsson Pouliot Sykora
Moreau Reasoner Thoresen
with my buddy Boynton on Defense, that's a $43 million team
Do the Oilers have the right combo for Sykora to thrive?
Would Sykora work on that line with Nilsson & Pouliot?
The other Seven:
That's a big step for Hartnell
I'm not a Lindros fan
Forsberg won't happen
Paul Kariya - Pricey, but Verrry Interesting.
I don't have a feeling for Lang one way or the other
Nagy – Nagy Pouliot Sykora?
If Guerin would come back, he'd be awesome. Make Room, Make Room!
If the Oilers are careful with their D spending they could afford Nagy & Hartnell
Handzus, injured most of the season, is in this class I think; would be useful especially if Stoll doesn't recover.
Another guy to consider. Isn't in the $5 Million category, but played tougher minutes than all 8 listed is Patrik Stefan.
Mr. D...
ReplyDeleteHartnell Horcoff Hemsky
Torres Stoll Pisani
Nilsson Pouliot Sykora
Moreau Reasoner Thoresen
You know I actually like that - 3 lines you can comfortably roll at ES and a pure offense line with Nilsson-MAP-Sykora that you can throw out against chumps and hopefully dominate offensively.
Like you said we would not be getting a $6 million dman but a $3.5-$4.0 million guy may be possible (send Lupul and one of Gilbert/Grebs plus ??? for ????).
???? Smith
Hejda Staios
Smid Greene Grebs or Gilbert
re: Nagy - was listening to some show on the radio the other day - it was Hrudey and Bill Watters, I believe, as well as the host. Anyhow, it was pretty good stuff - Hrudey talked about Calgary's road struggles at length - he made the point Matt Fenwick made earlier this year - the first part of the season it was more or less just fluke - the second half the first half was in their heads. I digress, I know.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, they were discussing Dallas and Hrudey called Nagy a chicken. Out and out. "I don't like Nagy at all. He's a chicken."
I don't mind that lineup asia. I don't know if we see Sykora back although he wants to come back, I think.
Is the consensus that they dump Lupul, somehow? LT, you said somewhere last week, iirc, that you think he may ask for a trade.
off topic...
ReplyDeleteLowetide: just noticed the smyth and roloson photo in the top right. Gave me chills. Fittingly black and white -like the distant memory it's become.
I say we offer Forsberg a 1 or 2 year contract at the max (I doubt he wants a long term contract anyway).
ReplyDeleteLet Sykora/Hartnell play left wing with Forsberg and Hemsky.
Then we have two shutdown lines:
Moreau, Horcoff, and Pouliot
Torres, Stoll, Pisani
Add Sydor and re-sign Hejda to the blueline.
That is still my plan.
You think Robert Nilson might get a little bit motivated for the chance to play with Forsberg.
I think Hartnell would be the worst choice of the bunch. The last thing this team needs is more overpriced mid-level talent. As a result, I'm dead certain he's the one that they get.
ReplyDeleteMe, I'd bring back Sykora and try to add Kariya or Forsberg.
I can't say I have a whole lot of interest in bringing Sykora back. The guys was break even at best this year. (And when I say "year" I mean the first 62 games.)
ReplyDeleteI saw Sykora's play as either incredibly conservative, and generating no offense, or pretty wide open and giving back all the goals scored with little defending. That's probably a pretty valuable skill to be able to adjust your play that much to the demands of the team on a given night, but the fact remains that he didn't really threaten to outscore anybody.
He was pretty good on the PP, but as long as the Oilers' big ticket item doesn't end up being Scott Hartnell and only Scott Hartnell, they should be able to replicate that production.
As for Hartnell, obviously I'm not that excited. To me he looks very much like Raffi Torres in terms of results. Raffi probably has the slight edge at ES and Hartnell has a slight PP edge, but they're both pretty terrible PP players by the results. Of course, Hartnell's contract is the big concern here because he'll be more expensive than Torres for similar results. If the Oilers could keep his cap hit down by signing a 5-7 yr deal, I could get on board.
The rest of the WC forwards listed here aren't that interesting to me, which is why I think they should spend the money on things they can get out from under after a year. I'm operating on the assumption that Lowe is unable to trade for a Pitkanen or a Bouwmeester and probably out of the running for Hannan or A. Markov,(I exclude Timonen because he's a sure $6MM+ I think).
If that's the case then why not deal picks for Norstrom or even Foote to shore up the defense? They're very good dmen that aren't really price prohibitive anymore given the market. The best part is that they're one year and done.
Oh and one other thing. There are certainly more potential offer sheets than I originally thought. Vanek's probably the only max dollar one (ie. $5MM or more) but there are some other interesting choices available if a team dallies before tying them up.
ReplyDeleteMontreal is interesting in particular. If they throw $6MM at Markov then that starts the ball rolling and if they keep Souray as well then it's a full-on avalanche. I'm not jazzed about Michael Ryder, but I do think Chris Higgins and Mike Komisarek are very good young players worth some pretty good dollars. If Montreal ties themselves up a little bit, then a Kesler-style offer is in order. ie. Just enough to make Gainey choke on it.
Riv, you make an interesting point about Hartnell. Since he is the youngest UFA, a 7-8 year deal can lock a player in during the prime of their career. Anyone care to discuss ages 26-34 as being the prime?
ReplyDeleteInjury insurance risk has to play into it, but it strikes me that if you can find the right player -- consistent, skilled, and character -- the long contract might present some real value.
RiversQ: I don't have the time to write more than a sentence or two but I am absolutely in accord with your suggestion of short term, transitionary players to shore up the team. I don't think the UFA crop is particularly outstanding, nor do I think that Edmonton's kids are ready to make any significant jumps. A Foote or a Guerin or anyone you can count on to bring some bang for their buck and then set sailing next summer when Edmonton and the UFA market are probably both more set for success.
ReplyDeleteI also believe that Riv has the right idea but can we expect Lowe to do something like that given his contract situation and all the promise he's been making since last March?
ReplyDeleteI think you guys have definitely caught onto something that might be making Lowe's job "complicated" right now (he's always talking about how things are complicated, isn't he?). The UFA crop this year is simply not very strong and there are a few teams who will be competing for them who have a better track record with dishing out the cash (Philly comes to mind). A trade for a veteran with one year remaining, like Foote, could definitely help this team for the upcoming year while allowing us to remain flexible. Problem is, this is again not compatible with Lowe and the EIG's desire to make a big splash this season. Hopefully Lowe can make the right moves and do what's good for both the team and his career, otherwise we as fans are in for another bumpy year, or worse a couple of years because a series of bad moves can hamper us in the long term quite easily.
ReplyDeleteI'll join the crowd and get on board with Riv's 1 year program - sure a guy like Foote or Norstrom would be very useful and could really stabilize the backend with a re-signed Hejda or Shaggy.
ReplyDeleteI would also add a guy like Johnson on LW, Dvo on RW along with a longer term deal for a Hartnell.
Hartnell Horcoff Hemsky
Torres Pouliot Pisani
Moreau Stoll Johnson
Brodziak Reasoner Dvorak/Stortini
Foote Staios
Hejda/Shaggy Smith
Smid Greene/Grebs/Gilbert(in AHL/NHL depends on their play)
Riv - I think Hartnell would also get the scales tipped in his favour over the Raffi comparison not just on the PP but he seemed to be from what I can tell one of the better PK forwards when healthy on an excellent PK team. Having said that I would not give him more than the 3.5 mill figure asia threw out above.
ReplyDeleteWe can imagine that the Oilers will have to overpay to get someone to come here but does it have to be Scott Hartnell and does it have to be someone that's from Alberta? Don't get me wrong, I really like the way this kid plays and if he came to be a mark-it-down 25-55 guy it wouldn't surprise me. On the other hand the kid's never played close to tough min so how many more of those do we need and just how much should we overpay them?
ReplyDeleteOilerdiehard: I think Torres has a clear advantage over Hartnell at ES. Tougher division, tougher competition relative to his teammates, yet very similar results.
ReplyDeleteOn the PP? Well, let me put it this way - would you rather do brain surgery with a rake (Torres) or a pitchfork (Hartnell)? They both stink based on the results.
As for the PK, Hartnell doesn't play there much honestly. He only had 88 minutes this year and has never come close to picking up close to 200 PK minutes in a year. Surely that's an advantage over Torres, because MacT would rather eat glass than watch Raffi kill a penalty, but again it's not like we're comparing these two based on something they do even as well as an average NHLer.
Personally, I think these two players get very similar results and are very comparable except that historically Torres is likely to play 10 more games than Hartnell in a given year. The kicker is that Hartnell is likely to get double the money Raffi does in the first year of this contract. If the Oilers effectively replace Torres with Hartnell in depth chart, I'm convinced they're pissing away bang-for-the-buck.